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Key developments
March data indicates carbon emissions peak
SURGE ENDED: Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in China fell 3% in March 2024, ending a 14-month surge and possibly signalling that Chinese CO2 emissions peaked in 2023, according to new analysis for Carbon Brief by Lauri Myllyvirta. The fall was driven by the record growth of solar and wind power generation, which “covered 90% of the growth in electricity demand”, and by declining construction activity. An increasing portion of electricity demand is being covered by distributed solar, which comprised 45% of last year’s solar capacity additions. Meanwhile, limited demand for steel and cement due to continued uncertainty in the real-estate sector saw a drop in emissions of 30 megatonnes of CO2 (MTCO2) from the construction sector.
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AMBITION GAP: Maintaining the record rate of clean energy installations could make a 2023 peak in CO2 emissions “possible” for China, the analysis added, as the “main driver of China’s emissions growth in recent years has been the power sector”, which has only grown 1% year-on-year. The article noted, however, that industry associations, such as China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA), expect solar and wind capacity additions by 2030 to significantly exceed official targets. The analysis found the difference amounts to 1,400-1,800 gigawatts (GW), which – if the resulting clean power generation from more ambitious forecasts were to replace coal – could see a difference in CO2 emissions amounting to 10-15% of China’s current emissions. China “is already severely off track” to meet its carbon-intensity target, the analysis added. Its ability to meet this target, which is part of its international climate pledge under the Paris Agreement, “depends on clean energy growth continuing to significantly exceed the central government’s targets – or those targets being ratcheted up”, said the analysis, which was picked up by the New York Times, Reuters, Bloomberg, AFP and Straits Times, among others.
NEW ACTION PLAN: China’s state council released a new action plan for energy conservation and carbon reduction for 2024 and 2025, which pledges to reduce CO2 emissions by 130m tonnes by 2025 through reforming the “nonferrous metal industry”, according to state news agency Xinhua. Reuters also covered the story, stating that the targeted reductions in CO2 emissions is “equivalent to about 1% of the 2023 national total”.
China rebuts G7 trade accusations
G7 MEETINGS: The G7 countries’ finance ministers and central bank governors have raised a “unified voice to counter some of the concerns they had over China’s trade policies” at their meetings in Italy on 23-25 May, according to Bloomberg. The ministers plan to “continue to monitor the potential negative impacts of overcapacity and will consider taking steps to ensure a level playing field,” another Bloomberg article said. Ahead of the meeting, Reuters and Bloomberg covered comments by US treasury secretary Janet Yellen, who called for “market-driven countries” to “stand together” to counter China’s “state-driven” industrial policies, which she viewed as a “threat” to the “viability of firms around the world, including in emerging markets”. EU president Ursula von der Leyen told the Financial Times, also ahead of the G7 meeting, that she shared concerns over overcapacity, but “we want to signal it’s not about closing the market or protectionism…We want to de-risk, not decouple [from China]. And now we’re developing the toolbox.”

CHINA’S RESPONSE: China’s foreign ministry rejected the “unilateral” G7 accusation, calling it a “discriminatory practice”, reported state broadcaster CGTN. The ministry’s spokesperson, Mao Ning, said at a press conference: “The G7’s ‘Chinese overcapacity’ hype and attempt to restrict China’s new energy products are completely against the facts and the laws of economics. They are the product of protectionism and serve no one’s interest.” Separately, China “has signalled it will retaliate” to EU anti-dumping concerns, with the Ministry of Commerce announcing plans to probe imports from the EU, US and other regions of a widely used thermoplastic, according to the Financial Times. Meanwhile, the China Chamber of Commerce to the EU said on Twitter it was informed about a potential up to 25% tariff from China on vehicles with large engines, as “Beijing is ramping up threats of retaliation as a deadline looms for the EU to announce results of its probe into China’s electric-vehicle subsidies”, Bloomberg reported.
Solar sector struggles to ‘control capacity’
PRICING WOES: Chinese financial news outlet Yicai reported that, according to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, “the price of high-purity polycrystalline silicon, the raw material used to make solar panels, has plunged below cost for all producers in China”. The situation “has forced some suppliers to halt production” and means that “even big players…which should have better cost controls than smaller firms, could be losing money at the moment”. Shortly afterwards, in an announcement covered by the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the CPIA called for “more mergers, acquisitions and curbs on domestic competition to control capacity” in the solar sector, following a meeting held to address falling prices and “operational pressures”.
XI ON OVERCAPACITY: According to SCMP, Chinese president Xi Jinping, in a meeting with prominent business figures and economists, said that support for the “new three” types (solar products, lithium-ion batteries and electric vehicles) must be “adapted” to local conditions, adding that the new energy industry should not be the sole focus of economic growth. A separate analysis by SCMP said China’s “overcapacity conundrum” is rooted in the economic reforms that began with its transition to a market-based economy in 1978. “Local governments have played an outsized role” in developing industrial overcapacity, it said, “prominent industry insiders have also publicly spoken on how insufficient downstream demand became a worrisome issue among authorities at city and provincial levels”.
Spotlight
Interview: China’s position on ‘international climate finance’ ahead of COP29
China’s stance on “international climate finance” – a UN-promoted mechanism designed to get developed countries to help fund developing countries address climate change – remains controversial. The country did not make a pledge to the “loss-and-damage fund” established at COP28, but has provided alternative climate funding through its South-South Climate Cooperation Fund and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Ahead of next week’s Bonn conference – where delegates are expected to negotiate climate finance – Carbon Brief has interviewed Li Shuo, head of the China climate hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI), on China’s attitude towards contributing and its potential position at the upcoming COP29.
Below are highlights from the conversation. The full interview can be found on the Carbon Brief website.
Carbon Brief: At the COP29 climate talks [in November], countries will be negotiating a new climate finance target. China is facing growing calls to start contributing. How is it responding to this?
Li Shuo: I think we are expecting a pretty heated debate at COP29. This is indeed one of the most controversial issues…that sees very strong division between the global south and the global north. And, of course, China is in this unique position: it is still firmly in the developing country camp, but, at the same time, it has become one of the largest economies and the largest emitters in the world. So with that, you know, there’s this argument that China should shoulder more responsibility internationally, including by providing future climate finance.
The geopolitical environment is definitely not helping that transition…In addition to that, China’s domestic political and economic situation – let’s just say, it’s not at a particularly helpful moment for that transition to happen…So we see a lot of risk factors. There is a critical need for other countries and China…to align ahead of COP29.
CB: Some might argue that China is providing affordable, clean energy technology and shouldn’t be pressured to scale up climate finance. Could this be one of the arguments made at COP29?
LS: Well, I actually hope this could be one solution to the $100bn – or $1tn – NCQG [new collective quantified goal] question. I actually genuinely see that it could be a solution based on which we can find a path forward.
…The reason I say this is…in addition to China’s emission portfolio, the country also happens to be the biggest solution provider when it comes to low-carbon products. Of course, there are increasing political controversies around China’s position in this regard, in particular between the US and China. But, I think, if you were China, what you want to achieve is, of course, to make sure that you can continue to sell those low-carbon solutions to the rest of the world.
So I would argue it actually works in China’s self-interest to make sure that they can facilitate the deployment of renewable energy in the global south. And, that way, I think it helps address the geopolitical problem, the so-called overcapacity [problem]…If China can play a role in this regard, at the bare minimum, it is helping its own companies.
CB: Do you think that that would be politically viable?
LS: …I doubt the NCQG will ever be as explicit as China committing to support developing countries to buy China-made products…The decision will be made in more general terms; general enough to not agitate the US and the EU. In my mind, of course the NCQG discussion is still an ongoing one, but you might be familiar with this “onion” [structure] approach, a kind of multi-layer package. You have a core: public international finance. The controversial issue there is you will have a number, but who will be accountable for that number?…Then the second [layer] might be some sort of investment facilitation…that’s where I think China can play a role.
CB: How do you think that requests for China to contribute to climate finance could be more successful?
LS: When you talk about UNFCCC climate finance, it is an intrinsically more political debate. The core of the question is: how does China see itself in relation to the rest of the world, and in relation to other traditional donor developed countries…I think, going forward, messages that are crafted in a more inviting way will probably work better with China. But…the political environment that we have will almost prevent that conversation from happening.
CB: Could you explain what you mean by “inviting”?
LS: If your framing is ‘China needs to pay’, or ‘we believe China is ready’ or ‘China is responsible’, then I think politically this will become very difficult for China. Because a lot of the framing – even just enlarging the donor base, that phrase – if you think about it, it assumes kind of a moral high ground…Enlarging the donor base also carries this undertone that “we want more people to pay so that we can pay less”…We do believe there could be areas where China and other traditional donor countries can complement each other. They need to work out the specific areas where they share synergy.
Watch, read, listen
COAL DECLINE?: In its monthly Tipping Point newsletter, Shanghai-based media outlet the Paper explored the shrinking role of coal in mining-focused Shanxi province, plus interviewed experts on reducing its share of the energy mix.
‘NEW DIRECTION’: Dr Yixian Sun, from University of Bath, explained on Sustainable Development Television the extent to which China’s institutions are shifting to invest in renewable energy projects overseas.
CLIMATE POLITICS: Carbon Brief’s China section editor Wanyuan Song spoke to the All Things Policy podcast, hosted by research institute Takshashila Institution, about the history of China’s climate pledges.
‘YOU MAKE MONEY’: The Associated Press covered the incentives being established to drive uptake of distributed solar power in Shandong province.
$47
Per kilowatt-hour, the average price in China for the iron-based batteries used by electric vehicles, according to a survey by BloombergNEF covered by the Information. This is half of the average price of these batteries outside of China, which are almost entirely supplied by Chinese manufacturers.
New science
Widespread societal and ecological impacts from projected Tibetan Plateau lake expansion
Nature Geoscience
By the end of the century, the surface area of lakes on the Tibetan Plateau will increase by over 50% (around 20,000km2) and water levels will rise by around 10 metres, even under a low emissions scenario, according to new research. It added that, if no adaptation measures are introduced, this lake expansion will submerge more than 1,000km of roads, around 500 settlements and around 10,000km2 of land such as grasslands, wetlands and croplands.
Researchers found that the greenhouse gas emission from the food system in China – the world’s largest producer and consumer of food – accounted for 37% of the country’s total emissions in 2020, based on an assessment of meals eaten in restaurants across the provincial capitals. The study estimated the greenhouse gas emissions of 540 dishes from 36 cuisines and then designed various dietary change strategies to explicitly link food emissions to the Paris Agreement pledges. It concluded that “transitioning towards low-emission cuisines and dishes” could reduce emissions by 38-69%.
China Briefing is compiled by Wanyuan Song and Anika Patel. It is edited by Wanyuan Song and Dr Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org
The post China Briefing 30 May: March emissions drop; ‘United’ G7 stance on ‘overcapacity’; Li Shuo on climate finance appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Climate Change
UN chief warns climate crisis “in overdrive” as El Niño threatens to fuel the fire
The United Nations Secretary-General and foreign ministers from the UK, France and Spain have blamed the deadly wildfires engulfing Europe on climate change, using the disaster to renew calls for faster cuts to greenhouse gas emissions.
António Guterres told journalists on Friday that the “climate crisis is in overdrive”, adding that global heat seen so far is just a “warm up act” as a phenomenon known as El Niño intensifies “adding fuel to a planet already on fire”.
A new World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) report published on Friday predicts that the weather pattern will grow into a “strong event” between now and October, increasing the risk of higher than normal temperatures across much of the world and disrupted rainfalls.
“That risks shattering every seasonal record – and driving even more severe effects worldwide,” Guterres said.
El Niño builds on top of an already warming world, driven primarily by the burning of fossil fuels. A WMO scientist, who did not want to be named, told journalists that all the heatwaves and other climate impacts seen so far this year are “before the effects of El Niño are really kicking in at a global scale”.
Fossil fuellling the fires
Fires have broken out across much of Europe but are threatening the most people in the south-west of France near Bordeaux and in Central Spain near Madrid. Nearly a quarter of a million people have been evacuated in France with hundreds of homes destroyed while in Spain 80,000 people have had to leave their homes and at least 13 died in one village.
A scientific study published on Friday by the World Weather Attribution group found that man-made climate change made deadly fires in France twice as likely and those in Spain twenty times more likely. Smaller fires in the UK were not analysed by the study.
UN Climate Change leader Simon Stiell blamed fossil fuels for the fires, as well as storms in Chile and heatwaves in North America and Japan in recent weeks. “The climate alarm is blaring”, he said on Wednesday.
Guterres criticised new fossil fuel production projects and fossil fuel subsidies for causing hardship across the world. Discussing his speech, a senior UN official – who did not want to be named – said the subsidies amounted to trillions of US dollars a year and criticised pension funds and institutional investors, including insurance companies, for continuing to invest in fossil fuel projects.

Asked why world leaders and the public are not prioritising climate action, Guterres said they are distracted by wars in Ukraine, the Middle East, Sudan and elsewhere and sometimes forget “other aspects that are a sometimes even more dangerous threat”.
Also the fossil fuel industry and “some countries” are campaigning to pretend that climate change does not exist, he said, adding that the UN should be more active in “naming the situations as they are and the responsibilties as they are and mobilising the public opinion”.
After meetings in Paris and Madrid earlier in the week, the UK’s new foreign minister Ed Miliband issued joint statements with his French and Spanish counterparts – Jean-Noël Barrot and José Manuel Albares Bueno – calling on the world to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels.
They promised to do more to reduce emissions and protect their people and encouraged other governments to do the same.
The UK-French statement called on governments to publish UN climate plans, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), which are aligned with the Paris Agreement’s goal to limit global average temperatures to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
According to Climate Action Tracker, only three countries – the UK, Nigeria and Norway – have submitted NDCs with 2035 emissions reduction targets which are compatible with 1.5C. Fifty-two countries – including Egypt, Vietnam and Argentina – have yet to submit an NDC at all.
Defending science
Beyond action on emissions, the ministers also intervened in an ongoing dispute over the timing of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC)’s next flagship assessment.
Miliband and Barrot’s statement said they “underline the importance” of scientific report feeding into governments’ next global stocktake of progress on climate action in two years’ time, calling it a “critical input” to that process.
The timing of this report has been a contentious issue in government negotiations at the IPCC and at June’s climate talks in Bonn. While a group of nations calling themselves the “friends of science” want the report before the stocktake, others like Saudi Arabia and India have argued that this would make the report of a worse quality and less inclusive of developing countries’ scientists.
Science ‘under attack’ from fossil fuel interests at UN climate talks
The UK-Spanish statement weighed in less explicitly on this issue but said that they “recall the importance of scientific evidence and acknowledge the work of the IPCC in this respect.”
The British and French ministers said they would seek to accelerate reductions of emissions in methane, a particularly potent greenhouse gas, at COP31 in November. They encouraged governments “to work jointly to develop a marketplace for fossil fuels with near-zero methane intensity.”
Methane leaks from oil, gas and coal production are a major contributor to global warming. Over a 20-year period, methane traps around 80 times more heat than carbon dioxide.

The UK and Spanish statement emphasised the importance of supporting the Global South and underlined the need to mobilise sustainable financing “at scale with the challenge we face”. The previous UK government, in which Miliband was energy minister, cut climate finance to developing countries to pay for increases in military spending.
The UK government led by new Prime Minister Andy Burnham has yet to outline any major changes to climate finance in its two weeks in power but has announced it will convert some finance from grants to loans in order to free up money to subsidise bus travel in England.
More adaptation needed
Guterres said that “it is time to stop treating each disaster as an isolated tragedy and recognise the systemic risk that is unfolding before our eyes.” A recent study found that three-quarters of UK media reports about the British June heatwave did not mention climate change.
As well as reducing emissions, the UN Secretary-General called for measures to adapt vulnerable people to extreme heat. Specifically, he said that buildings should be built and retrofitted for extreme heat and that every city and country should have heat-health action plans and early warning systems. Over 250 cities have joined the UN’s ‘beat the heat’ initiative, he said.
The Portuguese diplomat called for governments and employers to do more to protect their workers from heat, criticising global fashion brands for not setting heat standards for the factories that supply them. “No one should have to risk their life to earn a living,” he said.
The post UN chief warns climate crisis “in overdrive” as El Niño threatens to fuel the fire appeared first on Climate Home News.
UN chief warns climate crisis “in overdrive” as El Niño threatens to fuel the fire
Climate Change
‘Ride the wave of momentum’: Australia announces once-in-a-decade Marine Parks Network review
In response to the federal government announcing its once-in-a-decade review of Australia’s Marine Parks Network, the following lines can be attributed to Elle Lawless, Senior Campaigner at Greenpeace Australia Pacific:
“Greenpeace Australia Pacific welcomes today’s announcement that the Albanese Government will review Australia’s Commonwealth Marine Parks Network. This is a rare, once-in-a-decade opportunity to strengthen our marine parks and ban industrial fishing in Australia’s marine protected areas.
“Australians would be appalled to know that more than half of Australia’s Marine Parks Network currently allows for extractive industries, like longlining, bottom trawling and oil and gas mining. These so-called ‘protected’ areas were designed to safeguard our beloved ocean wildlife and underwater ecosystems – that is what Australians expect. Damaging industrial industries should not be given a free pass to trawl, fish, drill or extract from our marine parks.”
“With the first Ocean COP just around the corner, and off the back of Australia’s move to ratify the Global Ocean Treaty earlier this year, the Australian government has a unique opportunity to ride the wave of this momentum and solidify itself as a true global ocean leader.
“Greenpeace Australia Pacific is calling for industrial activities to be banned from our protected waters and for at least 30% of Australia’s ocean to be protected as ocean sanctuaries. This review presents a rare opportunity to create more ocean sanctuaries, true blue havens where ocean life can recover, thrive and repopulate the surrounding waters.”
—ENDS—
‘Ride the wave of momentum’: Australia announces once-in-a-decade Marine Parks Network review
Climate Change
Factcheck: No, Europe is not having its ‘quietest’ year for wildfires
In recent days, prominent climate sceptics and rightwing commentators have shared charts on social media incorrectly implying that Europe is having its “quietest” year for wildfires in 2026.
These include Dr Matthew Wielicki, a former University of Alabama geochemist and self-described “professor in exile”, who was recently appointed by the Trump administration to lead the US Global Change Research Program.
However, these charts paint a misleading picture as they are skewed by encompassing the entirety of Russia in the data – including the vast plains of Siberia.
These charts also use data that include fires that are deliberately lit to manage cropland, which is a declining practice across much of Europe.
In this factcheck, Carbon Brief shows that the area burned by wildfires across the European Union in 2026 is second only to 2022 for this time of year.
The latest data from the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) also shows that France has set a new modern record for area burned and Spain’s wildfire season is among the worst on record.
The fires have displaced more than a third of a million people across south-western Europe, while an impending heatwave has also raised fears of the fires worsening in the coming days.
‘Quietest year’
On 27 July, as wildfires raged across multiple European countries, former Conservative peer and climate-sceptic commentator Matt Ridley posted on Twitter that “2026 is the quietest year for wildfires in Europe by some distance”.

Ridley, who sits on the academic advisory council of the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF), a UK-based climate-sceptic lobby group that refuses to reveal the sources of its funding, was responding to an article by Daily Telegraph columnist Tim Stanley.
Stanley’s column, headlined: “Climate change is real – and the right needs to get serious about it”, warned:
“This is no longer a matter of speculation: the wildfires of Europe, pitiless and persistent, are the way we live now.”
Ridley included a chart from Our World In Data, showing the cumulative area burned by wildfires by week for Europe. The chart puts 2026 as having the smallest area for this time of year in a dataset going back to 2012.
Ridley’s post was widely shared by prominent rightwing figures – including Richard Tice, deputy leader of the hard-right, climate-sceptic Reform UK party, former Conservative cabinet minister Jacob Rees-Mogg and multiple commentators.
Separately, Wielicki also shared a chart on Twitter to imply that wildfires in Europe are declining. Wielicki has previously claimed that the “science is not settled on climate change”.
The charts posted by Ridley and Wielicki both use data from the Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS). The GWIS category for “Europe” encompasses all the countries on the continent and includes the whole of Russia.
As a result, Russia accounts for about 74% of the area included in the GWIS definition of “Europe”.
Wildfires in Russia typically account for 80-90% of the burned area in the GWIS Europe dataset. In 2026, fires in Russia are substantially below average. Therefore, including Russia in this comparison creates the false impression that wildfire activity across Europe is unusually low.
Dr Calum Cunningham, a research fellow at the University of Tasmania’s Fire Centre, says that such claims are “highly misleading”, noting that “they rely on aggregating fire activity across an enormous and climatically diverse region”. He tells Carbon Brief:
“A relatively quiet season in Russia can easily mask an exceptionally active season in France or Spain. If the analysis is focused on the regions actually experiencing the current fires, the picture is very different.
“The reality is that western Europe has experienced an extraordinary sequence of climate conditions this year.”
In contrast, the EFFIS provides a subset of wildfire data specifically for the area covered by the 27 nations of the EU, which, therefore, excludes Russia.
Another difference between the two datasets is that GWIS monitors all fires – including those on agricultural land that are intentionally set alight. The burned area as measured by GWIS contains significant cropland area.
By contrast, EFFIS uses land-cover data and other information to filter specifically for forest fires.
Looking at the EU-only data from EFFIS reveals that Europe is far from having its “quietest” year. The bloc’s burned area, as of 29 July, is almost 435,000 hectares (ha) – second only to 2022 for this time of year.

Notably, Wielicki has actually continued to post charts based on GWIS data, even after acknowledging that “includ[ing] all of Russia, including vast areas of Siberia…isn’t a good proxy for Europe”.
French fires
Even looking at EU-wide data misses the scale of this year’s wildfires for some individual countries.
The chart below shows the surge in burned area in France since mid-July.
For much of the first half of the year, the country was having a wildfire season that was only slightly above average in terms of total burned area. However, a notable uptick began in the first week of July.
The third week of the month saw France break its previous cumulative annual record by more than 19,000ha. That gap has widened as the fires continue to burn; as of 29 July, the cumulative burned area in France during 2026 was nearly 24,700ha above the previous record.

The fires in France follow a record-breaking June heatwave that “dried out vegetation across the region, allowing fires to spread quickly”, wrote the New York Times.
On 27 July, French president Emmanuel Macron called a “crisis cabinet meeting” in order to address the fires “ravaging several areas of south-west France”, said France 24.
More than 220,000 people have been evacuated due to the Gironde fire, west of Bordeaux, in “what may be France’s largest peacetime evacuation”, reported the Associated Press.
In the Conversation, Cunningham and two other University of Tasmania researchers write that evacuation orders “protec[t] human lives, but makes it more likely houses and other structures will burn if there’s no one to defend them”. They add:
“There is little doubt climate change has made France and Spain’s wildfires worse. They represent yet another reason to redouble our efforts to tackle climate change and stabilise our climate.”
Central Spain scorched
While Spain’s fire season has not broken records in the same way that France’s has, it is on track to be among the worst since EFFIS began reporting data in 2006.
The chart below shows the rapid increase in burned area in Spain since 8 July. The latest data from EFFIS reveal that, as of 29 July, Spain has almost matched its previous record at this point in the year. It is also nearly five times the average area burned for this time of year.

In Spain, the wildfires have been concentrated in the central part of the country, near Madrid.
BBC News reported that the fires outside the capital have burned “an area more than twice as large as the city itself”.
Nearly 90,000 people were forced from their homes in central Spain by the fires, said the Associated Press.
Pedro Sánchez, Spain’s prime minister, called the fires a “painful expression” of climate change.
Meanwhile, the UK, French and Spanish governments have issued joint statements this week in response to the fires. The UK/Spain statement begins:
“This summer’s wildfires demonstrated that climate change was now a national security emergency facing Europe and threatening our way of life.”
Related
The post Factcheck: No, Europe is not having its ‘quietest’ year for wildfires appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Factcheck: No, Europe is not having its ‘quietest’ year for wildfires
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