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Key developments
March data indicates carbon emissions peak
SURGE ENDED: Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in China fell 3% in March 2024, ending a 14-month surge and possibly signalling that Chinese CO2 emissions peaked in 2023, according to new analysis for Carbon Brief by Lauri Myllyvirta. The fall was driven by the record growth of solar and wind power generation, which “covered 90% of the growth in electricity demand”, and by declining construction activity. An increasing portion of electricity demand is being covered by distributed solar, which comprised 45% of last year’s solar capacity additions. Meanwhile, limited demand for steel and cement due to continued uncertainty in the real-estate sector saw a drop in emissions of 30 megatonnes of CO2 (MTCO2) from the construction sector.
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AMBITION GAP: Maintaining the record rate of clean energy installations could make a 2023 peak in CO2 emissions “possible” for China, the analysis added, as the “main driver of China’s emissions growth in recent years has been the power sector”, which has only grown 1% year-on-year. The article noted, however, that industry associations, such as China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA), expect solar and wind capacity additions by 2030 to significantly exceed official targets. The analysis found the difference amounts to 1,400-1,800 gigawatts (GW), which – if the resulting clean power generation from more ambitious forecasts were to replace coal – could see a difference in CO2 emissions amounting to 10-15% of China’s current emissions. China “is already severely off track” to meet its carbon-intensity target, the analysis added. Its ability to meet this target, which is part of its international climate pledge under the Paris Agreement, “depends on clean energy growth continuing to significantly exceed the central government’s targets – or those targets being ratcheted up”, said the analysis, which was picked up by the New York Times, Reuters, Bloomberg, AFP and Straits Times, among others.
NEW ACTION PLAN: China’s state council released a new action plan for energy conservation and carbon reduction for 2024 and 2025, which pledges to reduce CO2 emissions by 130m tonnes by 2025 through reforming the “nonferrous metal industry”, according to state news agency Xinhua. Reuters also covered the story, stating that the targeted reductions in CO2 emissions is “equivalent to about 1% of the 2023 national total”.
China rebuts G7 trade accusations
G7 MEETINGS: The G7 countries’ finance ministers and central bank governors have raised a “unified voice to counter some of the concerns they had over China’s trade policies” at their meetings in Italy on 23-25 May, according to Bloomberg. The ministers plan to “continue to monitor the potential negative impacts of overcapacity and will consider taking steps to ensure a level playing field,” another Bloomberg article said. Ahead of the meeting, Reuters and Bloomberg covered comments by US treasury secretary Janet Yellen, who called for “market-driven countries” to “stand together” to counter China’s “state-driven” industrial policies, which she viewed as a “threat” to the “viability of firms around the world, including in emerging markets”. EU president Ursula von der Leyen told the Financial Times, also ahead of the G7 meeting, that she shared concerns over overcapacity, but “we want to signal it’s not about closing the market or protectionism…We want to de-risk, not decouple [from China]. And now we’re developing the toolbox.”
CHINA’S RESPONSE: China’s foreign ministry rejected the “unilateral” G7 accusation, calling it a “discriminatory practice”, reported state broadcaster CGTN. The ministry’s spokesperson, Mao Ning, said at a press conference: “The G7’s ‘Chinese overcapacity’ hype and attempt to restrict China’s new energy products are completely against the facts and the laws of economics. They are the product of protectionism and serve no one’s interest.” Separately, China “has signalled it will retaliate” to EU anti-dumping concerns, with the Ministry of Commerce announcing plans to probe imports from the EU, US and other regions of a widely used thermoplastic, according to the Financial Times. Meanwhile, the China Chamber of Commerce to the EU said on Twitter it was informed about a potential up to 25% tariff from China on vehicles with large engines, as “Beijing is ramping up threats of retaliation as a deadline looms for the EU to announce results of its probe into China’s electric-vehicle subsidies”, Bloomberg reported.
Solar sector struggles to ‘control capacity’
PRICING WOES: Chinese financial news outlet Yicai reported that, according to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, “the price of high-purity polycrystalline silicon, the raw material used to make solar panels, has plunged below cost for all producers in China”. The situation “has forced some suppliers to halt production” and means that “even big players…which should have better cost controls than smaller firms, could be losing money at the moment”. Shortly afterwards, in an announcement covered by the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the CPIA called for “more mergers, acquisitions and curbs on domestic competition to control capacity” in the solar sector, following a meeting held to address falling prices and “operational pressures”.
XI ON OVERCAPACITY: According to SCMP, Chinese president Xi Jinping, in a meeting with prominent business figures and economists, said that support for the “new three” types (solar products, lithium-ion batteries and electric vehicles) must be “adapted” to local conditions, adding that the new energy industry should not be the sole focus of economic growth. A separate analysis by SCMP said China’s “overcapacity conundrum” is rooted in the economic reforms that began with its transition to a market-based economy in 1978. “Local governments have played an outsized role” in developing industrial overcapacity, it said, “prominent industry insiders have also publicly spoken on how insufficient downstream demand became a worrisome issue among authorities at city and provincial levels”.
Spotlight
Interview: China’s position on ‘international climate finance’ ahead of COP29
China’s stance on “international climate finance” – a UN-promoted mechanism designed to get developed countries to help fund developing countries address climate change – remains controversial. The country did not make a pledge to the “loss-and-damage fund” established at COP28, but has provided alternative climate funding through its South-South Climate Cooperation Fund and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Ahead of next week’s Bonn conference – where delegates are expected to negotiate climate finance – Carbon Brief has interviewed Li Shuo, head of the China climate hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI), on China’s attitude towards contributing and its potential position at the upcoming COP29.
Below are highlights from the conversation. The full interview can be found on the Carbon Brief website.
Carbon Brief: At the COP29 climate talks [in November], countries will be negotiating a new climate finance target. China is facing growing calls to start contributing. How is it responding to this?
Li Shuo: I think we are expecting a pretty heated debate at COP29. This is indeed one of the most controversial issues…that sees very strong division between the global south and the global north. And, of course, China is in this unique position: it is still firmly in the developing country camp, but, at the same time, it has become one of the largest economies and the largest emitters in the world. So with that, you know, there’s this argument that China should shoulder more responsibility internationally, including by providing future climate finance.
The geopolitical environment is definitely not helping that transition…In addition to that, China’s domestic political and economic situation – let’s just say, it’s not at a particularly helpful moment for that transition to happen…So we see a lot of risk factors. There is a critical need for other countries and China…to align ahead of COP29.
CB: Some might argue that China is providing affordable, clean energy technology and shouldn’t be pressured to scale up climate finance. Could this be one of the arguments made at COP29?
LS: Well, I actually hope this could be one solution to the $100bn – or $1tn – NCQG [new collective quantified goal] question. I actually genuinely see that it could be a solution based on which we can find a path forward.
…The reason I say this is…in addition to China’s emission portfolio, the country also happens to be the biggest solution provider when it comes to low-carbon products. Of course, there are increasing political controversies around China’s position in this regard, in particular between the US and China. But, I think, if you were China, what you want to achieve is, of course, to make sure that you can continue to sell those low-carbon solutions to the rest of the world.
So I would argue it actually works in China’s self-interest to make sure that they can facilitate the deployment of renewable energy in the global south. And, that way, I think it helps address the geopolitical problem, the so-called overcapacity [problem]…If China can play a role in this regard, at the bare minimum, it is helping its own companies.
CB: Do you think that that would be politically viable?
LS: …I doubt the NCQG will ever be as explicit as China committing to support developing countries to buy China-made products…The decision will be made in more general terms; general enough to not agitate the US and the EU. In my mind, of course the NCQG discussion is still an ongoing one, but you might be familiar with this “onion” [structure] approach, a kind of multi-layer package. You have a core: public international finance. The controversial issue there is you will have a number, but who will be accountable for that number?…Then the second [layer] might be some sort of investment facilitation…that’s where I think China can play a role.
CB: How do you think that requests for China to contribute to climate finance could be more successful?
LS: When you talk about UNFCCC climate finance, it is an intrinsically more political debate. The core of the question is: how does China see itself in relation to the rest of the world, and in relation to other traditional donor developed countries…I think, going forward, messages that are crafted in a more inviting way will probably work better with China. But…the political environment that we have will almost prevent that conversation from happening.
CB: Could you explain what you mean by “inviting”?
LS: If your framing is ‘China needs to pay’, or ‘we believe China is ready’ or ‘China is responsible’, then I think politically this will become very difficult for China. Because a lot of the framing – even just enlarging the donor base, that phrase – if you think about it, it assumes kind of a moral high ground…Enlarging the donor base also carries this undertone that “we want more people to pay so that we can pay less”…We do believe there could be areas where China and other traditional donor countries can complement each other. They need to work out the specific areas where they share synergy.
Watch, read, listen
COAL DECLINE?: In its monthly Tipping Point newsletter, Shanghai-based media outlet the Paper explored the shrinking role of coal in mining-focused Shanxi province, plus interviewed experts on reducing its share of the energy mix.
‘NEW DIRECTION’: Dr Yixian Sun, from University of Bath, explained on Sustainable Development Television the extent to which China’s institutions are shifting to invest in renewable energy projects overseas.
CLIMATE POLITICS: Carbon Brief’s China section editor Wanyuan Song spoke to the All Things Policy podcast, hosted by research institute Takshashila Institution, about the history of China’s climate pledges.
‘YOU MAKE MONEY’: The Associated Press covered the incentives being established to drive uptake of distributed solar power in Shandong province.
$47
Per kilowatt-hour, the average price in China for the iron-based batteries used by electric vehicles, according to a survey by BloombergNEF covered by the Information. This is half of the average price of these batteries outside of China, which are almost entirely supplied by Chinese manufacturers.
New science
Widespread societal and ecological impacts from projected Tibetan Plateau lake expansion
Nature Geoscience
By the end of the century, the surface area of lakes on the Tibetan Plateau will increase by over 50% (around 20,000km2) and water levels will rise by around 10 metres, even under a low emissions scenario, according to new research. It added that, if no adaptation measures are introduced, this lake expansion will submerge more than 1,000km of roads, around 500 settlements and around 10,000km2 of land such as grasslands, wetlands and croplands.
Researchers found that the greenhouse gas emission from the food system in China – the world’s largest producer and consumer of food – accounted for 37% of the country’s total emissions in 2020, based on an assessment of meals eaten in restaurants across the provincial capitals. The study estimated the greenhouse gas emissions of 540 dishes from 36 cuisines and then designed various dietary change strategies to explicitly link food emissions to the Paris Agreement pledges. It concluded that “transitioning towards low-emission cuisines and dishes” could reduce emissions by 38-69%.
China Briefing is compiled by Wanyuan Song and Anika Patel. It is edited by Wanyuan Song and Dr Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org
The post China Briefing 30 May: March emissions drop; ‘United’ G7 stance on ‘overcapacity’; Li Shuo on climate finance appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Farmers and fishermen in the Maldives have long relied on an ancient calendar to guide their daily lives.
The Nakaiy system divides the year into 27 distinct periods, each named after a star or constellation in the night sky.
Any one period in the calendar tells you about expected weather and tidal patterns, navigational routes, and fishing conditions. The Nakaiy was created through centuries of careful observation and local knowledge, passed down through families as an essential tool for survival.
But things are now changing. The climate crisis is leading to more extreme weather events across the Indian Ocean island nation and upending the Nakaiy calendar.
“When you go and speak to communities and ask them what kind of impacts they are facing, a lot of elders will tell you that the weather, it doesn’t follow the calendar anymore,” explained Aishath Reesha Suhail, a programme officer in the Maldives’ Ministry of Tourism and Environment.
As the effects of climate change worsen, it is a real prospect that the Nakaiy may be abandoned by local people, representing a major cultural loss to the Maldives.
‘Systemic and growing threat’
With extreme weather becoming the norm, communities are observing a domino effect of consequences in their everyday lives. The slow onset of heritage loss is now being seen across continents, but notably among small islands in remote parts of the ocean.
“Climate change represents a systemic and growing threat to cultural heritage worldwide,” a UNESCO spokesperson told Climate Home, adding that the World Heritage Committee has identified climate change as “one of the most significant long-term risks affecting properties across all regions.”
UNESCO, the UN body for education, science and culture, defines the loss of cultural heritage as “the erosion of traditional knowledge systems, craftsmanship, social practices and identity, particularly where communities are displaced or livelihoods disrupted”. A clear example is historical sites and even entire islands washed into the ocean as a result of rising sea levels and coastal erosion.
The Maldives is dealing with such a situation now. The Koagannu Cemetery is a 900-year-old resting place, located on the country’s southernmost atoll, a mere 50 metres from the shoreline. The monument’s intricate coral gravestones are being actively threatened by the encroaching Indian Ocean.
The government and local community have responded to this challenge with emergency protection measures. Sandbags and concrete structures have been installed along the coastline, complemented by large numbers of palm trees to create a seawall. A wider solution is ‘beach nourishment’, a common practice in the Maldives where sand from elsewhere is brought in to replace what has been lost through erosion. Taken together, these solutions have so far protected the cemetery.
Among the many issues climate change creates, cultural heritage is not always front of mind. In the Maldives, one of the main barriers people face is awareness. “Most of what we are dealing with relates to the erosion of our islands along with areas such as fisheries… but we are quite limited in our capacity to do something about it,“ Suhail said.
“We don’t understand the full breadth of the issue at present because we haven’t been able to do extensive research on the matter,” she added. However, assessing the extent of the damage – and how to respond effectively – is a key priority for the government, outlined in its latest climate plan, known as a Nationally Determined Contribution, and as part of its National Adaptation Plan process.
Fishing is at the core of the country’s culture and identity, employing thousands of people. Most dishes include fish – “we have it for breakfast, lunch and dinner,” Suhail noted – but the climate crisis and overfishing are shifting how and when communities can fish. Tuna makes up 98% of all fish caught in the Maldives, but warmer ocean temperatures are changing migratory patterns, pushing the species into deeper, colder waters.
As a critical economic and cultural resource, the government has outlined a range of solutions to protect the fisheries sector in its first Biennial Transparency Report to the UN. These include using real-time tracking data to improve the efficiency of fishing operations; investing in canneries to increase fish storage; and diversifying away from tuna through marine farming.
Culture and nature go hand-in-hand
The same pattern is playing out elsewhere.
Palau and the Maldives are not close to one another. The two states are separated by around 4,000 miles and sit in different corners of the ocean. But both are experiencing very similar climate challenges, based on their position as a set of scattered, low-lying islands surrounded by an imposing body of blue water.
In the same way as the Maldives, Palau’s cultural heritage is closely tied to “land, coastlines and traditional food systems,” according to Toni Soalabla, at the Palau Office of Climate Change.
“Many of the places that hold stories, history and identity of our communities are located along the coast and are increasingly exposed to erosion and sea level rise,” she said.
One of these places is Ngerutechei village, reportedly the oldest in Palau, and home to ancient stone paths and carvings. The village provides a glimpse into the past social values and culture of the people in this western Pacific nation.
As part of the development of Palau’s National Adaptation Plan, the government has worked with local leaders to identify similar sites of cultural significance. The plan encourages communities to use their own knowledge to create protective measures for these sites.
Climate change is also prompting communities to take up traditional land and food practices again. These include cultivating taro, a stable food source that has historically supported water, soil and food security on the islands.
“These systems developed over generations in response to local environmental conditions, so strengthening them today is both a climate adaptation measure and a way of maintaining cultural knowledge that might otherwise fade,” said Soalabla.
Cultural practices in Palau have developed alongside the natural ecosystems that people rely on to survive. It is within this context that researchers believe adaptation policies should be created. Recognising this relationship “can strengthen both community identity and environmental resilience at the same time”, according to Soalabla.
Heritage on the global stage
The issue of cultural loss has not gone unnoticed in international climate negotiations.
Small island states such as the Maldives have used their role at the UN to push for greater awareness and action, with some key successes.
In 2015, the Paris Agreement established a Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) which recognised that countries needed to do something about climate change now and not later. However, it took six years before a framework and a set of adaptation targets were agreed at the UN climate summit in Glasgow to pursue this goal.
From this came the establishment of seven overall themes – from poverty eradication to access to health – to guide adaptation action and a set of around 60 indicators to measure progress against the targets.
World leaders invited to see Pacific climate destruction before COP31
Emilie Beauchamp, an adaptation specialist at the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), said that “cultural heritage was highlighted as one of the global priorities [of the GGA Framework] and is one of the seven themes, so it is considered very important by the international community.”
The much-debated set of indicators, only finalised in Belém at last year’s COP30, include five related to cultural heritage with a focus on preserving cultural practices and important sites that are “guided by traditional knowledge, Indigenous Peoples’ knowledge and local knowledge systems”. A spokesperson for UNESCO said the inclusion of heritage indicators “marks an important recognition that climate impacts extend beyond economic losses”.
While critics said the set of final indicators was rushed through by the Brazilian presidency, they now serve as guidance for national governments that wish to implement plans to protect their common heritage. The missing piece of the puzzle remains how to finance these plans – something notably absent from the Belém text, which made clear that the adaptation indicators “do not create new financial obligations or commitments, nor liability or compensation”.
The lack of financial commitments proved disappointing for many small states grappling with how to prevent their cultural history from being entirely forgotten, especially at a time when adaptation finance remains below requirements. A recent UNEP report found that developing nations would need an estimated US$310 billion per year in 2035 to adapt to climate change, while current public financing was around $26 billion.
At these low levels “only a small percentage of what the framework outlines could be implemented,” according to Beauchamp.
The challenge of cultural heritage
When looking at low-lying islands on a map, they can appear as specks of land amid a vast ocean. Many of the stories from these remote places go unnoticed. But the specks represent millennia of human culture that is slowly being lost to the ocean.
While the international community has now recognised the problem and solutions exist, the recurring issue of scarce finance may prevent governments from taking sustained action. Island communities have already been forced to move home as sea levels rise, leaving behind their cultural connections to a place.
The value of any cultural asset, or of human heritage, can be judged by how it is engaged with over generations. Without human intervention, many historical sites, language, cuisine and other local customs would become a forgotten part of history. The rapid onset of climate change brings the role of cultural heritage into sharp relief, challenging communities to decide in real time what they value, what deserves saving, and how to achieve that.
Stories of cultural loss are not confined to small islands but it is here where the challenge is presenting most acutely. The experiences of these vulnerable nations in protecting their heritage will provide the litmus test for effective adaptation responses elsewhere.
Adam Wentworth is a freelance writer based in Brighton, UK.
(Main image: The Isdhoo Havitha is an ancient Buddhist monastery in the Maldives, located moments from the shoreline. Photo: Ashwa Faheem)
The post Island nations fight to save cultural heritage from climate change appeared first on Climate Home News.
Island nations fight to save cultural heritage from climate change
The invasive emerald ash borer, native to northeast Asia, has spread to 37 states over the past quarter century, killing nearly all of the ash trees it infests. But in Maine, a coalition of basketmakers, scientists and government officials are plotting a future for their trees.
Each strip of wood in Richard Silliboy’s hands started as a year of an ash tree’s life.
Climate Change
Toxic Ocean Crisis in Papua New Guinea Sparks Mass Marine Die-Off and Public Health Emergency
Thousands of dead fish are washing ashore and people are falling ill too, as officials investigate possible sources of contamination.
It started in December, when dead fish began washing ashore New Ireland—a mountainous island in Papua New Guinea’s New Ireland Province, flanked by the Pacific Ocean and the Bismarck Sea.
Toxic Ocean Crisis in Papua New Guinea Sparks Mass Marine Die-Off and Public Health Emergency
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