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Welcome to Carbon Brief’s China Briefing.

Carbon Brief handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight. Subscribe for free here.

Key developments

China’s top climate negotiator interviewed

COAL STANCE: China News Weekly recently interviewed Su Wei, China’s lead climate negotiator, about China’s stance at COP28 and its energy transition. Su affirmed China’s position on fossil fuels, saying that it is “impossible to completely phase out fossil fuels, given limitations of the resources China possesses”. He argued that countries did not have to “be utterly opposed” to fossil fuels as long as the central question of emissions is solved, through technologies such as carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS). Substituting fossil fuels with renewable energy should follow the principle of “establish [new rules] before breaking [old ones]”, he added. This means a “process” needs to be followed – namely, after “large-scale development” of renewable energy and non-fossil fuel energy, “coal power will be gradually reduced and the proportion of coal stock will also decline”.

DEVELOPED VS DEVELOPING: Su also highlighted the role of developed countries as a key debate at COP28. He described the current international environment as the “biggest challenge to realising the goal of tripling renewable energy capacity globally”, with some developed countries imposing tariffs on or launching investigations into Chinese products. He also criticised developed countries’ failure to provide the $100bn in climate finance they committed to in 2009, describing it as a “muddled account”.

US-CHINA OPTIMISM: Nevertheless, Su was relatively optimistic about the potential for US-China climate cooperation. He raised how US-China alignment at COP28 “made an important contribution” to its success, with the Sunnylands statement jointly released by the two countries allowing them to “propose wording for the text and help[ing] to unlock difficult issues in the negotiation”. Climate change, Su said, “remains one of the few positive elements that China and the US can mobilise to promote the stable development of their relationship”, allowing the two countries to “talk” despite other tensions. (In a recent issue of the Pekingnology newsletter, noted international relations scholar Da Wei concurred, saying the US and China “have some agreements on the climate change issue”. He added: “I believe that the two sides will declare more on climate change in the following months.”)

China ‘needs 324tn yuan’ to meet climate goals

‘ENORMOUS AMOUNT’: China needs to “spend about 324tn yuan” ($45.5tn), which is equal to 2.7 times its 2022 GDP, between 2021 and 2060 to achieve its goals of peaking carbon emissions by 2030 and reaching carbon neutrality by 2060, reported state-run newspaper the China Daily. The figures were included in China’s fourth national communication on climate change, which was submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in December 2023. China “will need to spend far more to reach carbon neutrality than to achieve carbon peaking”, the document added. China’s previous national communication was submitted more than four years ago in 2019.

GROWING INVESTMENT: Meanwhile, China’s annual national economic work conference – held in December 2023 – announced “promotion of…green and low-carbon development” as one of nine key economic tasks in 2024, with “green” development becoming the “driving force for China’s high-quality development”, according to China News. The 2024 national energy work conference, also held in December, established that China aims to build 200 gigawatts (GW) of wind and solar capacity in 2024, as well as 5GW of nuclear energy, the newspaper added. China5E reported that China’s top economic planner, the national development and reform commission (NDRC) said in its first meeting of 2024 that it would develop “tangible policies” to attract private capital to invest in nuclear power and other major energy projects, as well as environmental protection schemes. Investment in renewable energy in China “seems increasingly to be driven by the profit motive”, a Financial Times editorial argued, adding that this trend is accelerated by increasing adoption of “cleantech” by China’s state-owned enterprises.

MARKET FORCES: China is also developing financial platforms to boost “green” and low-carbon investment in the new year. On 2 January, it launched a stock index to encourage “investment products that grant greater weightings for sectors such as renewables”, reported the Financial Times. Meanwhile, should China’s voluntary carbon market, the China Certified Emissions Reduction (CCER) program, relaunch this year, it could encourage finance to flow to projects that, together, could reduce carbon emissions by tens or even hundreds of millions of tonnes, Jiemian noted.

Updated industry guidelines to ‘encourage green tech’

INDUSTRY CATALOGUE: China’s top economic planner, the national development and reform commission (NDRC), released an updated 2024 version of its catalogue for guiding industry restructuring­, designed to “promote high-end, intelligent and green manufacturing”, Xinhua reported. The catalogue divides industries into three categories: encouraged; restricted; and eliminated, reported China Environment. The “restricted” category refers to technologies, equipment and products that, among other things, “are not conducive to the realisation of the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality”, it explained. The “eliminated” category contains technologies that “seriously waste resources, cause pollution…[or] impede the realisation of the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality”, the outlet added. China Environment also reported that the catalogue said it would “encourage green technology innovation and the development of green environmental protection industry, promote energy saving…and resolutely curb the blind development of high-energy-consuming, high-emission and low-level projects”. (The phrase on curbing “blind development” has been in use for several years.)

NEW ADDITIONS: The “encouraged” category adds a “detailed explanation of carbon capture and application”, reported BJX News. The category also adds “green” hydrogen produced by electrolysis of water and synthesis of “green methanol” from carbon dioxide, as well as new solar materials for use in the construction industry, reported the news outlet. The “restricted” category has raised and added limitations for the power sector, such as new coal power units that cannot meet “ultra-low emission” requirements, said the report. Under the “elimination” category, thermal power plants will be phased out in accordance with the principle of “establish first, then modify” (先立后改) with plants eliminated “in an orderly manner, in accordance with an “annual phase-out plan”, added the report. The least efficient coal-fired boilers will be phased out in air pollution priority areas, the outlet added.

OFFICIAL REACTION: Officials from the NDRC told Jiemian that the new edition of the catalogue aims to promote “high-end, intelligent, and green manufacturing industry” in China, they added. The updated catalogue “will encourage green technology innovation and the development of green environmental protection industries, promote energy conservation, carbon reduction and green transformation in key areas”, they told the outlet. 

BYD surpassed Tesla, claiming the top spot in EV sales

BYD VS TESLA: Chinese firm BYD’s sales of battery-only vehicles “outpaced” its US rival Tesla in the final quarter of 2023 for the first time, according to BBC News. BYD sold 526,000 units while Tesla delivered 484,000 units. However, for the whole of 2023, Tesla still sold more with 1.8m compared to nearly 1.6m for BYD, the broadcaster added.

SUCCESS STORY: CNN said that China’s fast transition to electric vehicles (EVs) is “thanks to strong government support”. The article quoted analysts from investment bank Natixis Asia saying “first-mover advantage and government support through infrastructure investment and subsidies have made it easy for Chinese EV makers to expand domestically and internationally”. (Consultant David Fishman noted on Twitter that domestic EV sales grew by 36% in 2023, “despite the end of the supporting subsidies”.) According to Bernstein research, “BYD batteries are among the lowest cost in the world”, reported the Financial Times. Michael Dunne, chief executive of Asia-focused car consultancy Dunne Insights, told the FT: “No one can match BYD on price. Period.” In his Bloomberg column, David Fickling attributed BYD’s edge to its in-house battery supply chain and cheaper cells. “More importantly”, he said, “on almost every financial metric, [BYD] is either advancing on, or overtaking [Tesla] — with its gaze already set on the wider car industry.”

FORECAST FOR 2024: Looking ahead to this year, S&P Global Mobility predicted battery electric vehicles (BEVs) sales would reach 13.3m units globally in 2024, accounting for 16.2% of total global passenger vehicle sales, with China’s BEV sales growing 28.6% year-on-year. BloombergNEF’s outlook forecast a milestone will be achieved by the end of 2024 – it will see the first quarter in which consumers buy more than five million electric or plug-in hybrid vehicles, with China being the main contributor.

Spotlight 

What to watch in 2024

In 2023, several significant energy and climate stories came out of China. Global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions rose, driven by increases in China, but analysis for Carbon Brief found that renewable energy growth could cause a “structural decline” of emissions from 2024. New coal “capacity payments” continue policy support for the fuel. 

Meanwhile, the US and China issued the Sunnylands statement, which signalled a turning point in bilateral relations and played a part in theCOP28 outcome.

For the first China Briefing of 2024, Carbon Brief asks leading experts what they are watching for in China in the year ahead. Responses have been edited for length and clarity.

Joanna Lewis, provost’s distinguished associate professor of energy and environment, and director of the science, technology and international affairs program, Georgetown University:

The key thing I will be watching is the development of China’s new nationally determined contribution (NDC) and associated 2035 climate goals. Given the Sunnylands statement and COP28 decisions, we can expect that China’s next NDC will include the country’s first economy-wide target covering all greenhouse gases. As China’s emissions are slated to peak before 2030, it will also likely be China’s first absolute emissions target.

Beyond the NDC, I will also be watching China’s coal consumption. While consumption increased in 2023, many predict a slowing in 2024 and possible peaking by 2025 (or earlier). So watching trends over the coming year may signal what is to come. Also important to determining coal trends will be the rate of renewable energy growth. With an estimated 230GW of new wind and solar power installed in China last year – twice that of the US and Europe combined – and major advances in energy storage that are helping address the curtailment issue, China’s renewables sector is poised for continued rapid growth, which can help offset the demand for coal in the power sector.

David Fishman, senior manager, the Lantau Group:

China spent 2023 implementing incremental reforms to its power sector and energy policy – still trending in the right direction for power market decarbonisation and liberalisation, but taking smaller steps than in the previous few years. This is a return to normalcy for China, which has typically adopted a measured approach to policy reforms: preferring to make small changes and observe the outcomes of limited pilots, rather than big changes all at once.

I expect 2024 to be more of the same, with spot-trading in the power exchanges becoming more common and renewable consumption quotas expanding to more sectors. At the same time, the surging growth in renewable capacity, especially from desert mega-bases, should allow renewable generation growth to exceed power consumption growth. This will cap coal consumption in the power sector and send China’s carbon emissions into long-term structural decline from 2024 onward.

Ryna Cui, research director, Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland:

It is crucial to watch how coal plants will be utilised in the power system, whether as expected to back up an increasing share of intermittent renewables or to continue as “baseload” generation, where the emissions impact can be significant. It is also critical to watch whether and how China moves from a continued preference for coal to other solutions for grid stabilisation, such as cross-region grid balancing, demand-side management, battery and other storage technologies. 

Methane is an emerging area that is finally receiving the policy attention it requires – both in China and globally. China’s methane action plan is the first published national policy targeting methane as a greenhouse gas (GHG). The document is brief, setting up overall guidelines and main task areas. So it is important to watch how more detailed policies and targets will continue to develop.

Internationally, the US-China Sunnylands statement set up the expectation for the next round of NDCs to cover all GHGs and all economic sectors. It will be exciting to watch how Sunnylands and the previous joint Glasgow declaration will be implemented.

Yan Qin, lead carbon analyst at the London Stock Exchange Group:

This will be an exciting year for China’s national carbon market and the newly relaunched offset market. The national emissions trading scheme (ETS) has just completed its second compliance period, with allowance prices rising to as high as 80 yuan per tonne ($11.25/t) due to tightening of benchmarks. 

The scheme will see more progress this year, both on the regulatory side, with the newly released state council regulation on national carbon trading, and on the expansion to more industry sectors, with the first new batch possibly including the cement and aluminium sectors. We might also see more clarity on the role of the carbon market in China’s “dual carbon” targets against the backdrop of moving from energy dual control to carbon dual control. The revamped China Certified Emissions Reduction (CCER) offset market will also see issuance of new credits resume this year.

Tu Le, founder and managing director, Sino Auto Insights:

It was another record year for “new energy vehicle” (NEV, mainly electric vehicle) sales in China, largely on the back of a serious price war ignited by Tesla in January 2023. I’ll be watching to see whether the market can keep it up – and who will blink first this year. Will there continue to be foreign direct investment by Chinese electric vehicle and battery companies outside of China and, if so, where?

Chinese automakers exported a record number of vehicles in 2023, catching many observers’ attention. With the Inflation Reduction Act making the US market unattractive for now, the EU is the most attractive major market to Chinese EV firms. EU automakers will also begin shipping Chinese-built vehicles to their home markets. How the EU will ultimately react to this – and the growth of Chinese EV exports more widely – remains uncertain.

Watch, read, listen

BIG READ: China submitted its fourth national communication on climate change to the UNFCCC in December 2023 – the first since June 2019 – with sections on China’s greenhouse gas emissions by sector, “key objectives” and financial needs.

DE-RISKING RISKS: Henry Sanderson argued in Foreign Affairs that western countries must prioritise in order to compete with China on “clean energy” technologies.

WASTE UNREST: The New Books in East Asian Studies podcast interviewed Dr Jean Yen-chun Lin on research into environmental protests against waste incineration in Beijing.

CLIMATE ADAPTATION: China and Africa will “jointly promote climate resilience”, ministry of ecology and environment minister Huang Runqiu said in remarks, recently posted on YouTube, made at the September 2023 Africa Climate Summit.

New science 

Hotter days, dirtier air: The impact of extreme heat on energy and pollution intensity in China
Energy Economics

Researchers have identified a “causal impact from ‘local temperature shocks’ on pollution intensity” in China between 2008 and 2017, finding that extreme heat increases energy demand, diminishes energy efficiency and increases consumption of coal, which leads to a rise in pollution intensity. The researchers said that this shows that extreme weather caused by climate change “will perpetuate an adverse impact on pollution intensity” across China.

Methane mitigation potentials and related costs of China’s coal mines
Fundamental Research

A new study estimated that “through continuous coal cuts and available…mitigation measures, China’s [coal mine methane] emissions can be reduced by 65%-78% [from 2021 levels] in 2060”. The study also found that methane emissions from abandoned coal mines “will far exceed those from coal mining under the 2060 carbon-neutral scenario, especially in northeastern China”. While coal mine methane mitigation may not currently be economically feasible, it added, it could become “the most cost-effective solution as [carbon dioxide] prices increase”.

Who is most affected by carbon tax? Evidence from Chinese residents in the context of ageing
Energy Policy

New research has discovered “significant differences” in the rate by which different age groups in China are affected by carbon taxation, with the “vulnerable elderly” being particularly affected. The results show that the “indirect carbon payment burden rate on the elderly…is 1.2 times that of the general population”, with low-income seniors facing a slightly higher than average rate at 1.4 times that of the general population.

China Briefing is compiled by Anika Patel and edited by Wanyuan Song and Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org

The post China Briefing 11 January: Expectations for 2024; Top climate negotiator interviewed; NDRC promotes ‘green’ industry appeared first on Carbon Brief.

China Briefing 11 January: Expectations for 2024; Top climate negotiator interviewed; NDRC promotes ‘green’ industry

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Climate Change

India needs climate adaptation cash to be an investment, not a quick fix

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Anuradha Barua, Aakriti Wanchoo and Swapan Mehra are from Iora Ecological Solutions, a New Delhi-based company focused on nature-based solutions, climate action, conservation and environmental policy.

When Rojo Neog’s village in northeast India was hit by a power cut in July, he headed out to buy candles. Three days later, his body was recovered – swept away by surging floodwaters. His niece said the water had risen from knee- to neck-level in about half an hour.

The devastating floods highlight how climate risk across India is becoming harder to confine to a season or a disaster bulletin. Just weeks before the disaster in Assam, authorities in Mumbai rationed water as reservoir storage fell to just over 10%.

India does not lack warnings about climate risk. The more difficult task is making sure money, institutions and communities are ready to act before those warnings become disasters. Adaptation should not be just an obligation once a crisis has arrived, but an investment made while there is still something to protect.

    As governments head towards COP31 in Antalya this November, India should push not only for more adaptation finance, but for finance that arrives earlier and can be traced to outcomes on the ground.

    That is the gap India needs to close if we wish to become truly resilient in the face of the changing climate. Money must move with risk, institutions must know what to do before an emergency is declared, and long-term spending must reduce vulnerability before it becomes loss.

    India’s adaptation disconnect

    This year the disconnect has become painfully clear in Assam, where more than 100 people have died due to the flooding, with nearly 140,000 people across seven districts affected. More than 450 villages remain inundated, while some 49,000 people are taking shelter in relief camps after losing everything.

    No financing mechanism can stop a river from rising. But timely measures can change what happens before it does. If forecasts and river levels triggered financing before the water arrived, authorities could position boats and stock shelters, and evacuate people where needed, while families could move cattle, seed, medicines and documents before roads disappeared.

    For Indian women workers, a just transition means surviving climate impacts with dignity

    India already has much of the information needed to address climate change. High-risk states and districts should agree in advance which local thresholds trigger action, who is responsible and how funds will be released, so officials do not have to negotiate responsibility and budgets from scratch once risk becomes an emergency.

    Linking community know-how to financing

    Our work in Majuli, a river island district in Assam, shows why this matters.

    Across 64 villages, communities helped identify flood and erosion risks, assess their capacity to respond, and to develop resilience measures with indicative budgets and possible funding sources.

    Communities often know what would help; the harder task is connecting that knowledge to institutions and finance that can act on it.

    Extreme heat costing India’s poorest workers 2% of GDP, survey finds

    Public health offers an example of how systems can adapt as risks change. In New Delhi, vector-control workers who once prepared for a defined “dengue season” now remain on alert throughout the year, using surveillance and hotspot mapping to identify risks earlier.

    The next step is to make these systems more predictive by integrating climate forecasts into public health planning.

    India needs sustained investment in drainage, health systems, wetlands, water security and climate-resilient agriculture. Some will remain public responsibilities; others, including water reuse, efficient irrigation, resilient cold chains and risk-proofed infrastructure, can generate savings or revenue and attract private capital if projects are prepared well.

    The economic case for adaptation is not always about generating new revenue. Often, it is about avoiding future costs. Flood shelters, public-health preparedness, early-warning systems and support for the poorest households will still need public or grant finance. The point is to match the finance to the risk rather than treat adaptation as a single financing problem.

    A sugarcane farmer removes weeds which have grown in floodwater in Kolhapur district, Maharashtra, India. Credit: Meenal Upreti

    A sugarcane farmer removes weeds which have grown in floodwater in Kolhapur district, Maharashtra, India. Credit: Meenal Upreti

    Rising disaster bill shows cost of inaction

    India is already spending heavily on adaptation, with related expenditure reaching 5.6% of GDP in 2021-22. Yet tracked adaptation finance was only about $15 billion annually, almost entirely from domestic public sources, against estimated needs of about $100 billion a year through 2030.

    Internationally, the shortfall is wider: developing countries may need $310 billion-$365 billion annually by 2035, compared with just $26 billion in international public adaptation finance in 2023.

    For governments repeatedly paying for flood, droughts and heat relief, the cost of inaction can quickly exceed the cost of building resilience, though not all the costs of inaction appear neatly on a balance sheet.

    In floodplain landscapes such as Assam’s Kaziranga National Park, animals move towards higher ground every monsoon as the floodplain fills, crossing roads and leaving the park in search of safety. During the 2024 floods, 215 animals died, including 13 one-horned rhinos.

    Development plans in such sensitive landscapes must leave room for water, wildlife and communities to move safely. A wetland may not generate monetary revenue, but the floodwater it stores has real value. The cost of losing that capacity may only become visible when the next flood arrives.

    Comment: Climate adaptation in Africa needs investment, not imported solutions

    Success should not be measured only by how quickly relief follows a disaster. It should also be measured by what never had to be replaced: people and animals moved before the water rose, seeds kept dry, medicines waiting at the shelter, a wetland that still had room to hold water, and a family that could leave while the road was still open.

    Adaptation becomes an investment when it preserves those choices before they disappear.

    The post India needs climate adaptation cash to be an investment, not a quick fix appeared first on Climate Home News.

    India needs climate adaptation cash to be an investment, not a quick fix

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    Climate Change

    Despite African walkout, fractious land COP ends without drought deal

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    The African continent’s hopes for a legally binding agreement to combat drought have been dashed again, as UN land restoration talks in Mongolia passed the issue onto the next set of talks in Egypt in two years’ time.

    For over a decade, Africa has pushed for a UN protocol on drought risk management that would acknowledge drought as an issue requiring a regional and global – not just a national – response, potentially paving the way for more finance to help ensure water is available when drought hits.

    A formal protocol would enable countries to transition from reacting to drought once it hits to “a proactive enabling mechanism to address drought and its effects such as migration”, said a Tunisian negotiator on behalf of the African Group of countries last week. Once land is regularly too dry and infertile to grow crops or graze animals, people often leave to seek a living elsewhere.

    But this effort to adopt a protocol, led by Africa, has been resisted at successive land restoration COPs under the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), mainly by developed countries, which argue that a legally weaker alternative – a framework – would be faster and cheaper to set up.

    A traditional Mongolian Ger tent at COP17 (Photo: Anastasia Rodopolou/IISD ENB)

    Governments at the previous COP in Saudi Arabia in 2024 failed to reach agreement despite talks running past midnight, while this year’s saw African officials coordinate a walkout from negotiating rooms on Wednesday morning, according to two sources at the talks.

    Drought deal delayed until 2028

    The IISD’s Earth Negotiations Bulletin, a non-governmental organisation which unlike the media is allowed to watch and report on closed-door talks, said a call to suspend negotiations on Wednesday showed negotiations had reached “boiling point” and “made some jaws drop”.

    Negotiations resumed after a lunchtime meeting with the Mongolian COP presidency although governments were only eventually able to agree that they could not find consensus in Ulaanbaatar and should resume talks on an instrument to deal with drought in 2028.

    Christine Colvin, WWF’s head of freshwater policy, told Climate Home News that, with droughts hitting from Honduras to the English region of Hampshire, something concrete – whether a protocol or a framework – is needed urgently “rather than the can being kicked down the road for another two years as will now happen with the protocol procrastination”.

    Negotiators talk at COP17 (Photo: Anastasia Rodopolou/IISD ENB)

    But, in a closing press conference on Friday, the Mongolian minister presiding over talks celebrated that governments had reached consensus on several “contentious” issues and that agenda items blocked at this year’s COP17 would be put on the agenda for COP18 in Egypt.

    US blocks agenda items

    Other agenda items that divided countries were on measuring land degradation’s effects on women, enhancing the involvement of civil society and women in land COPs, and the UNCCD working more closely and effectively with the UN’s climate and nature conventions.

    On the COP’s opening day two weeks ago, the US representative said the Trump government objects to these agenda items “on their premise and no amount of negotiation will allow us to join consensus on these items. As such we request that they be struck from the agenda at which time we will then be able to approve it, saving us valuable negotiating time.”

    A US State Department spokesperson later told Climate Home News that the US wants the UN “to get back to basics by refocusing on its core mandate, eliminating overlap, and reducing competition for scarce resources”.

    The spokesperson added, “that means prioritising the concrete work member states created [the UN] to do – rather than diverting limited time, attention, and resources toward social and political agendas, including gender-related initiatives.”

    A protester calls for Indigenous Peoples, local communities, women and youth to be on the agenda of COP17 (Photo: Anastasia Rodopoulou/IISD ENB)

    On COP’s first day, the European Union and Brazil pushed back against the blocking of these agenda items, with a Brazilian negotiator saying his country attaches “great importance” to them. But the Mongolian presidency directed governments to adopt the rest of the agenda without the controversial items, which were discussed privately with countries throughout the two weeks.

    An EU statement, read out later by Irish minister Timmy Dooley, accused “some parties” (meaning national governments) of having adopted a “less constructive approach” and preventing “discussions on important matters from even commencing”.

    The agenda items the US refused to engage with were never discussed and were only placed onto the agenda for the next COP on the last day. Those talks will take place in Egypt in two years’ time, with Donald Trump due then to be in his last year as US president.

    No restoration without women

    The blocking of the gender agenda item has stymied attempts, agreed on by governments at the last COP, to develop gender-specific indicators for the UNCCD’s next overall framework and to facilitate more women delegates at COPs. Women made up only about a quarter of delegates to COP15 in 2022, UNCCD analysis with the latest data shows

    Criticising the move to keep gender off the agenda, the EU said in a statement that it welcomes “the attention being given at COP17 to women pastoralists and herders, recognising their contribution to sustainable land management and resilient rural livelihoods”.

    The head of the UNCCD, former Egyptian environment minister Yasmine Fouad, said on Friday that “regardless that the agenda item was blocked”, she was proud that she and COP17 President Batmunkh Battsetseg had led the COP as women and attended the gender caucus (a meeting of groups supporting women at the talks).

    Yasmine Fouad and Batmunkh Battsetseg talk at the COP17 closing press conference (Photo: Kiara Worth/UNCCD)

    “Without the women,” she told the closing press conference on Friday, “we will not be able to restore land, restore hope, restore life or restore even our children and grandchildren. And we will keep on pushing that agenda.”

    The civil society agenda item aimed to allow NGOs to attend land COP negotiations, as they do at climate COPs, and included terms of reference for an Indigenous Peoples Caucus.

    A representative of Indigenous Peoples told the COP’s closing plenary meeting that the group had “deep disappointment that the agenda of this COP has removed the dedicated space for indigenous peoples”. “We cannot restore the land while removing the voices of those who care for it,” she said.

    On Tuesday, the UNCCD’s deputy head Andrea Meza was asked about Indigenous Peoples’ participation. She said that the blocking of “one agenda item” is “generating uncertainty in the progress” towards creating caucuses for Indigenous Peoples and for Local Communities within the talks.

    Because of the “complex geopolitical situation” making it hard to obtain consensus, coalitions of the willing have become more important, she added.

    Mining out, money in

    Outside the formal negotiations, the summit was marked by a focus on the strongly Mongolian issues of the role played by pastoralists and rangelands like grasslands, as well as mining, in both degrading and restoring land.

    Part of the conference was sponsored by Australian mining company Rio Tinto and its local partner Oyu Tolgoi. Their presence was protested by campaigners wearing T-shirts calling on the companies to “stop wasting drinking water” and to “get out of Mongolia”.

    A campaigner protests at COP17 on Thursday (Photo by IISD/ENB | Anastasia Rodopoulou)

    The UNCDD and others praised the success of the summit in raising more finance for land restoration. The COP saw institutions like the Asian Development Bank and Global Environment Facility pledge money to combat land degradation, with the UNCCD estimating that $645 million of new commitments were made.

    An estimated $355 billion a year is needed through 2030 to meet global land restoration commitments, compared with around $77 billion currently invested. Private finance accounts for only around 6% of global investment, according to the UNCCD.

    UNCCD chief scientist Baron Orr told a press conference that many of the announcements were public-private partnerships that use government money to “even the playing field” for companies that want to protect land, in a bid to ensure they are not disadvantaged compared with those that do not.

    Such partnerships are a “huge opportunity”, he said, especially as “we’re not in a moment of public finance – public finance is tight in every country.”

    The post Despite African walkout, fractious land COP ends without drought deal appeared first on Climate Home News.

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    Climate Change

    Pacific islands seek backing for new regional fund ahead of COP31

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    Burdened by rising fuel import costs and an “ocean crisis” of record-breaking heat, Pacific island nations are seeking to build support for a new regional fund ahead of COP31, intended to channel investment into renewable energy, community resilience and ocean protection, experts said.

    Leaders from the 18-member Pacific Islands Forum (PIF), including Australia and New Zealand, are expected to issue a call for global pledges to the Pacific Resilience Facility (PRF) at a high-level meeting this coming week in Palau, seeking to build a new model for financing climate action.

    The new regional fund was formally launched in May this year and is meant to “serve communities at a community level”, swiftly channelling investments for their projects on the ground, according to Fiji’s assistant minister for foreign affairs, Lenora Qereqeretabua.

    “We are expecting pledges for the PRF, and these funds will go to communities that apply,” she told journalists at an online briefing. “We have organised it in such a way that it makes our application processes much, much easier than applying for global funding.”

    Qereqeretabua added that she expects that PRF funds will be “utilised by communities to protect themselves from climate change and the effects of climate change.”

    The Pacific Islands Forum meeting is expected to shape the region’s priorities ahead of this year’s pre-COP, hosted by Fiji and Tuvalu, and COP31, which will be co-led by Australia and Türkiye.

    At COP31, a dedicated session on the climate finance needs of small island states will seek to drive pledges into the PRF. The fund has so far received about $172 million in capital – with about $67 million coming from Australia – and aims to close the year with $500 million.

      Ocean heat and fossil fuel shocks

      Leaders from the Pacific will meet in Palau from Sunday amid an “ocean crisis” of record-breaking ocean heat caused by this year’s “super El Niño”, according to Kevin Chand, Pacific ocean policy director at National Geographic’s Pristine Seas conservation project.

      Leaders at the PIF are expected to put forward commitments towards new marine protected areas, which will be key for shielding ecosystems from future climate extremes, Chand said. The forum is expected to issue a statement on the need for ocean action at COP31, and announce commitments towards reaching the global goal of protecting 30% of the planet’s land and sea ecosystems by 2030.

      Rising ocean heat could lead to food insecurity and lost government earnings in the region, as key fish stocks like tuna start migrating away from their coastline in search of colder waters, said Coral Pasisi, director of climate change and sustainability at the Pacific Community (SPC).

      Climate shocks are deepening existing economic pressures, as Pacific nations have spent up to a quarter of their GDP on fossil fuel imports due to the war in Iran, according to a recent report by the University of New South Wales (UNSW) in Australia.

      Wesley Morgan, one of the study’s authors, told journalists that partner nations “ought to be putting their money where their mouth is”, and should support the energy transition in the Pacific by covering the upfront costs of switching from polluting diesel to solar power, batteries and electricity grid upgrades.

      China keeps Indonesia’s battery dream afloat but future less certain

      Given the increase in climate-related shocks and sea-level rise, the PIF should also mention the need to phase out fossil fuel extraction and consumption, said Sindra Sharma, international policy lead at the Pacific Islands Climate Action Network (PICAN).

      Last year’s COP30 failed to deliver a global roadmap on transitioning away from fossil fuels, which led to a group of countries – including several Pacific island nations – pursuing their own fossil fuel phase-out summit in Santa Marta, Colombia. Next year’s conference will be hosted by Tuvalu and co-chaired by Ireland, which should also receive backing from the PIF, Sharma said.

      Both the chairs of the Santa Marta coalition and the Australian COP31 co-presidency have vowed to continue a push for this topic to be discussed at COP31.

      A drought response brigade in Tuvalu in 2020
      A drought response brigade in Tuvalu in 2020. (Photo: Pacific Community)

      New fund to test allies

      As local communities in the Pacific struggle to access global climate funds, the PRF’s planned model for quick, direct disbursements has “very solid and good” intentions, Sharma said, but it will need political and financial backing from donor countries.

      “The proof is going to be when the fund actually starts operating and delivering to communities,” she added. “If there is too much bureaucracy in being able to access the funds, for example. These things will have to be scrutinised.”

      The facility aims to deliver funds in two categories: one for climate adaptation and “disaster resilience”, and another for social and community resilience that includes areas like community capacity-building, education, data analytics and financial management, among others. It will launch its first call for proposals at the PIF.

      Morgan added that Australia will need to “leverage global interests” so that funding is directed to the Pacific Resilience Facility “or else the Pacific won’t be able to trust Australia as a partner”. The country ratified the PRF treaty in May, triggering its entry into force.

      “The perception [of Australia] in the region is genuinely divided, and it’s worth being honest about it,” Sharma said, adding that the pre-COP31 in Fiji, which is usually limited to a technical space for negotiations, will determine how meaningful Australia’s advocacy for the Pacific can be.

      This time, Pacific nations want to use the pre-COP in early October as an opportunity to demonstrate the challenges their largely low-lying islands face and to advocate for their political priorities, including a renewed global effort to limit global warming to 1.5C by cutting emissions faster and deeper. World leaders are due to visit Tuvalu to experience the frontline of rising sea levels, although Australia and Fiji have yet to confirm who will attend.

      “In Bonn, Australia was largely missing on the negotiated outcomes that we so urgently need to see. It’s not enough to get Pacific priorities on the agenda. Agenda placement is not delivery,” Sharma added.

      The post Pacific islands seek backing for new regional fund ahead of COP31 appeared first on Climate Home News.

      Pacific islands seek backing for new regional fund ahead of COP31

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