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The UK should make an international pledge to cut its greenhouse gas emissions to 81% below 1990 levels by 2035, according to the government’s advisory Climate Change Committee (CCC).

The recommendation for the UK’s next “nationally determined contribution” (NDC) under the Paris Agreement comes just weeks before the government is expected to announce its new target at the COP29 climate talks in Baku, Azerbaijan.

It follows a request from secretary of state Ed Miliband for guidance from the CCC, taking into account the levels of ambition set in the 2033-37 period covered by the “sixth carbon budget”.

Miliband also asked for the committee’s views on the impact of including, or not including, international aviation and shipping emissions. This mirrors the approach taken in 2020 for the UK’s previous NDC. 

While the government is not obliged to follow the CCC’s advice, it has almost always done so in the past.

Such a target would be “ambitious, deliverable and consistent” with the UK’s legally binding sixth carbon budget, the CCC notes, providing a “credible contribution” towards limiting warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

Existing targets

Under the UK’s Climate Change Act, the government must set a long-term goal for cutting emissions by 2050, as well as five-yearly “carbon budgets” along the way.

The legally binding carbon budgets, detailing allowable levels of economy-wide emissions, are designed to provide “stepping stones” towards the 2050 goal.

When it was passed in 2008, the UK’s target was to cut greenhouse gas emissions to 60% below 1990 levels by 2050, but this was quickly increased to 80%.

The UK’s first five carbon budgets, covering the period from 2008 through to 2032, were set in the context of that 80% by 2050 goal.

However, in 2019, the Conservative prime minister Theresa May raised the UK’s long-term goal to a 100% reduction by 2050, commonly referred to as “net-zero”.

After the UK officially left the European Union in 2020, the increased ambition of the net-zero target provided the context for the UK’s first NDC, which pledges to cut emissions to “at least 68%” below 1990 levels by 2030 – excluding emissions from international aviation and shipping (IAS), in line with UN convention. 

(This is more ambitious than the fifth carbon budget target of a 57% reduction between 2028 and 2032, which was set under the lower 80% by 2050 goal.)

Subsequently, in 2021, the Conservative government “enshrined” the UK’s sixth carbon budget in law, targeting a 78% cut in emissions during 2033-2037. This budget was also set in line with the new net-zero target.

In addition, the sixth carbon budget includes the UK’s share of international aviation and shipping for the first time, “in line with the CCC’s long-held view that all UK carbon budgets should account for emissions from both sources”.

The CCC recommends that the budget should be set at 965m tonnes of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e) for the period 2033 to 2037. This equates to, on average, 193MtCO2e annually. In 2019, annual emissions stood at 522MtCO2e.

It evaluated the potential level of the target under different scopes, including noting that changes to the methods it uses for estimating UK emissions could lead to higher estimates for both historical and future emissions. These “higher inventory changes” were taken into account for the 78% target. 

If international aviation and shipping are excluded, but the higher inventory changes remain, the CCC’s recommended emissions reduction by 2035, on the basis of 1990, is 82%.

According to independent research group Climate Action Tracker (CAT), the UK’s NDC pledge to reduce emissions by 68% below 1990 levels is “almost sufficient”. It notes that, while the UK’s current target is not consistent with limiting warming to 1.5C, it could be with “moderate improvements”. 

CAT had previously rated the target as compatible with 1.5C in 2022, but it has since updated its modelled pathways “to reflect the latest science”. This resulted in more stringent reductions being needed to get on track.

NDC recommendations

The CCC has recommended that the UK’s next NDC commits to reducing territorial emissions by 81% from 1990 to 2035, as shown in the chart below, based on the committee’s forthcoming advice on the seventh carbon budget.

Line chart showing UK historical emissions from 1990 to 2024 and NDC goal of 68% reduction from 1990 levels by 2030.
UK emissions (MtCO2e), showing historical emissions, carbon budgets, the 2030 NDC target and the CCC’s 2035 NDC recommendation target. Carbon budgets 1-5 do not include international aviation and shipping, however, historical emissions and carbon budget 6 include these emissions. As such, NDC figures are plotted on the chart with international aviation and shipping included to allow for comparison. Source: Climate Change Committee.

Such a reduction would be consistent with the UK’s existing net-zero-aligned targets: the 2030 NDC; the sixth carbon budget; and net-zero by 2050.

Meeting the 2035 recommendation and the adopted 2030 NDC will require “rapid, but achievable action with low-carbon technologies becoming mainstream”, the CCC states. It points to the 10 recommendations made in its progress report, released earlier this year. 

These include making electricity cheaper, reversing policy rollbacks seen under the previous Conservative government and removing planning barriers for technologies, such as heat pumps, EV chargers and onshore wind.  

In a statement accompanying the CCC’s letter, Prof Piers Forster, interim chair of the committee, said:

“The technologies needed to achieve it are available, at a competitive price, today. Investment in low-carbon technologies – electric vehicles, heat pumps and renewables – needs to come now for this target to be achievable. Businesses will start to invest when they have confidence in what the government’s long-term policy plans are. We need to see the government’s commitment to climate reflected in the upcoming budget.”

The CCC has provided its NDC recommendation excluding emissions from international aviation and shipping, “in line with UNFCCC convention”, it notes.

If they were included, the committee’s recommendation would sit at 77-78% – almost the same as the level set in the sixth carbon budget.

Most NDCs historically have not included international aviation and shipping. This is consistent with the Paris Agreement, which excluded emissions from these sectors due to the difficulty in attributing emissions to individual countries. 

Instead, emissions from these sections are addressed under the International Civil Aviation Organisation and the International Maritime Organisation

While international aviation and shipping have, therefore, not been included within the CCC’s recommendation for the UK’s 2035 NDC, it notes that the UK is “well-positioned to drive international aviation and shipping decarbonisation”.

Stronger action is “urgently needed” to address international aviation and shipping emissions, the CCC says, which are expected to be the third largest source of emissions in the UK by 2035 and the second by 2050 (after agriculture).

The CCC notes that there have been some accounting changes since the release of the sixth carbon budget. As such, the UK emissions inventory has been revised to lower some estimates for the country’s total greenhouse gas emissions.

This means that the amount of emissions reduction required to meet the sixth carbon budget is now “slightly smaller” – falling from 78% to 77% as noted above.

This has led to some small differences between the percentage reduction required to meet the legislated sixth carbon budget target and those recommended by the CCC in its advice in 2020, as shown in the table below.

2035 UK emissions reduction
excluding IAS (NDC basis)
2035 UK emissions reduction
including IAS
CCC NDC recommendation
(based on forthcoming CB7
pathway)
81% 77-78%
CCC CB6 advice 82% 77-78%
CB6 legislated basis (comparing annualised legislated CB6 number with latest inventory estimate of 1990 emissions) 80% 77%

Source: CCC analysis.

As such, the CCC’s NDC recommendation for 2035 is 81%, while the sixth carbon budget advice was 82%. The actual amount of emissions reduction does not change, remaining at 965MtCO2e for the period 2033 to 2037.

The delivery plan for the NDC should be aligned with the UK’s international and domestic goals on nature, the CCC adds. It should also be fully integrated with the forthcoming National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan to the UN Convention on Biological Diversity.

Additional advice for the UK’s wider contribution to tackling climate change includes strengthening the UK’s national adaptation programme, supporting climate finance and “championing international transparency” by submitting a best practice NDC technical annex. 

The UK should “strengthen and contribute to key international initiatives”, such as the global methane pledge. However, the CCC notes that international credits should not be used to achieve any NDC. 

What happens next?

All parties within the Paris Agreement are expected to communicate their NDCs at least 9-12 months ahead of the relevant COPs. For the upcoming 2035 NDC, this means parties must submit their targets between November 2024 and February 2025.

Speaking at the UN general assembly in September, prime minister Keir Starmer said the UK would: 

“Meet our net-zero target, backed up with an ambitious NDC at COP29, consistent with limiting warming to 1.5C, and we’ll support others to do the same.”

As such, Carbon Brief understands that it is likely Starmer will unveil the UK’s NDC on the first day of COP29 during the leaders summit.

Prof Forster, adds:

“More than any commitment, what we really need is action. I have no doubt that the UK can once again be a leader on the international stage – in both deeds and words.”

Other nations are also likely to publish their NDCs in the coming months, including the US, COP28 host the UAE, COP29 host Azerbaijan and upcoming COP30 host Brazil.

These NDCs will “form the foundation of international climate action”, according to the World Resources Institute. They will be presented and adopted at COP30 in late 2025.

Underlying its NDC advice is the CCC’s work on the seventh carbon budget, its recommendations for which will be published on 26 February 2025. This will cover the period from 2038 to 2042.

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Carbon Brief Quiz 2026: Picture Round 1 and 2

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All answers will need to be submitted via the Google form by the end of the half-time break

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Landmark deal to share Chile’s lithium windfall fractures Indigenous communities

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Rudecindo Espíndola’s family has been growing corn, figs and other crops for generations in the Soncor Valley in northern Chile, an oasis of green orchards in one of the driest places on Earth the Atacama desert.

Perched nearly 2,500 metres above sea level, his village, Toconao, means “lost corner” in the Kunza language of the Indigenous people who have lived and farmed the land in this remote spot for millennia.

“Our deep connection to this place is based on what we have inherited from our ancestors: our culture, our language,” said Espíndola, a member of a local research team that found evidence that people have inhabited the desert for more than 12,000 years.

This distant outpost is at the heart of the global rush for lithium, a silvery-white metal used to make batteries for electric vehicles (EV) and renewable energy storage that are vital to the world’s clean energy transition. The Atacama salt flat is home to about 25% of the world’s known lithium reserves, turning Chile into the world’s second-largest lithium producer after Australia.

For decades, the Atacama’s Indigenous Lickanantay people have protested against the expansion of the lithium industry, warning that the large evaporation ponds used to extract lithium from the brine beneath the salt flats are depleting scarce and sacred water supplies and destroying fragile desert ecosystems.

Espíndola joined the protests, fearing that competition for water could pose an existential threat to his community.

But last year, he was among dozens of Indigenous representatives who sat across the table from executives representing two Chilean mining giants to hammer out a governance model that gives Indigenous communities living close to lithium sites a bigger say over operations, and a greater share of the economic benefits.

A man wearing a black T-shirt and a hat stands in front of a tree
Rudecindo Espíndola stands in a green oasis near the village of Toconao in the Atacama desert (Photo: Francisco Parra)

A pioneering deal

The agreement is part of a landmark deal between state-owned copper miner Codelco and lithium producer the Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile (SQM) to extract lithium from the salt flats until 2060 through a joint venture called NovaAndino Litio.

The governance model that promises people living in Toconao and other villages around the salt flats millions of dollars in benefits and greater environmental oversight is the first of its kind in mineral-rich Chile, and has been hailed by industry experts as the start of a potential model for more responsible mining for energy transition metals.

NovaAndino told Climate Home News the negotiations with local communities represented an “unprecedented process that has allowed us to incorporate the territory’s vision early in the project’s design” and creates “a system of permanent engagement” with local communities.

The company added it will contribute to sustainable development in the area and help “the safeguarding of [the Lickanantay people’s] culture and environmental values”.

    For mining companies, such agreements could help reduce social conflicts and protests, which have delayed and stalled extraction in other parts of South America’s lithium-rich region, known as the lithium triangle.

    “Argentina and Bolivia could learn a lot from what we’re doing [here],” said Rodrigo Guerrero, a researcher at the Santiago-based Espacio Público think-tank, adding that adopting participatory frameworks early on could prevent them from “going through the entire cycle of disputes” that Chile has experienced.

    Justice at last?

    As part of the governance deal, NovaAndino has pledged to adopt technologies that will reduce water use and mitigate the environmental impacts of lithium extraction.

    It has also committed to hold more than 100 annual meetings with community representatives to build a “good faith” relationship, and an Indigenous Advisory Council will meet twice a year with the company’s sustainability committee to discuss its environmental strategy, company sources said. The meetings are due to begin next month.

    To oversee the agreement’s implementation, an assembly – composed of representatives from all 25 signatory communities – will track the project’s progress. In addition, NovaAndino will hold one-on-one meetings with each community to address issues such as the hiring of local people and the protection of Indigenous employees.

    A flamingo at the Chaxa Lagoon in the Atacama salt flat (Photo: REUTERS/Cristian Rudolffi)

    Espíndola said the deal, while far from perfect, was an important step forward.

    “Previously, Indigenous participation was ambiguous. Now we talk about participation at [every] hierarchical level of this process, a very strong empowerment for Indigenous communities,” said Espíndola, adding that it did not give local communities everything they had asked for. For instance, they will not hold veto power over NovaAndino’s decisions or have a formal shareholder role.

    But after years of conflict with mining companies, a form of “participatory justice is being done”, he said.

    Not everyone is convinced that the accord, pushed by Chile’s former leftist government, marks progress, however.

    “Not in our name”

    The negotiations have caused deep divisions among the Lickanantay, some of whom say greater engagement with mining companies will not stop irreparable damage to the salt flats on which their traditional way of life depends. Others fear the promise of more money will further erode community bonds.

    In January 2024, Indigenous communities from five villages closest to the mining operations, including Toconao, blocked the main access roads to the lithium extraction sites. They said the Council of Atacameño Peoples, which represents 18 Lickanantay communities and was leading discussions with the company, no longer spoke for them.

    Official transcripts of consultations on the extension of the lithium contracts and how to share the promised benefits reveal deep divisions. Tensions peaked when communities around the mining operations clashed over how to distribute the multimillion-dollar windfall, with villages closest to the mining sites demanding the largest share.

    Eventually, separate deals establishing a new governance framework over mining activities were reached between Codelco and SQM with 25 local communities, including a specific agreement for the five villages closest to the extraction sites.

    Codelco’s chairman Maximo Pacheco (Photo: REUTERS/Rodrigo Garrido)

    The division caused by the separate deal for the five villages “will cause historic damage” to the unity of the Atacama desert’s Indigenous peoples, said Hugo Flores, president of the Council of Atacameño Associations, a separate group representing farmers, herders and local workers who oppose the mining expansion.

    Sonia Ramos, 83, a renowned Lickanantay healer and well-known anti-mining activist, lamented the fracturing of social bonds over money, and for the sake of meeting government objectives.

    “There is fragmentation among the communities themselves. Everything has transformed into disequilibrium,” said the 83-year-old.

    “[NovaAndino] supposedly has economic significance for the country, but for us, it is the opposite,” she said.

    The company told Climate Home News it has “acted consistently” to promote “transparent, voluntary, and good-faith dialogue with the communities in the territory, recognising their diversity and autonomy, and always respecting their timelines and forms of participation”.

    A one-off deal or a model for others?

    The NovaAndino joint venture is a pillar of Chile’s strategy to double lithium production by 2031 and consolidate the copper-producing nation’s role in the clean energy transition as demand for battery minerals accelerates.

    Chile’s new far-right president, José Antonio Kast, who was sworn in last week, promised to respect the lithium contracts signed by his predecessor’s administration – including the governance model.

    Still, some experts say the splits over the new model highlight the need for legislation that mandates direct engagement and minimum community benefits for all large mining projects.

    “In the past, this has lent itself to clientelism, communities who negotiate best or arrive first get the better deal,” said Pedro Zapata, a programme officer in Chile for the Natural Resource Governance Institute.

    “This can be to the detriment of other communities with less strength. We cannot have first- and second-class citizens subject to the same industry,” he added.

    The government is already negotiating two more public-private partnerships to extract lithium with mining giant Rio Tinto, which it said would include a framework to engage with Indigenous communities and share some of the revenues. The details will need to be negotiated between local people, the government and the company.

    Sharing the benefits of mining

    Under the deal in the Atacama, NovaAndino will run SQM’s current lithium concessions until they expire in 2030 before seeking new permits to expand mining in the region under a vast project known as “Salar Futuro” – a process which will require further mandatory consultations with communities.

    Besides the participatory mechanism, the new agreement promises more money than ever before for salt flat communities.

    A stone arch welcomes visitors to the village of Peine, one of the closest settlements to lithium mining sites in the Atacama salt flat (Photo: REUTERS/Cristian Rudolffi)

    Depending on the global price of lithium and their proximity to the mining operations, Indigenous communities could collectively receive roughly $30 million annually in funding – about double what SQM currently disburses under existing contracts.

    When taking into account the company’s payments to local and regional authorities, contributions could reach $150 million annually, according to the government.

    To access these resources, each community will need to submit a pipeline of projects they would like funding for under a complex arrangement that includes five separate financial streams:

    • A general investment fund will distribute funding based on each village’s size and proximity to the mining sites
    • A development fund will support projects specifically in the five communities closest to the extraction sites
    • Contributions to farmers and livestock associations
    • Contributions to local governments
    • A groundbreaking “intergenerational fund” held in trust for the Lickanantay until 2060

    For many isolated communities in the Atacama desert, financial contributions from mining firms have funded essential public services, such as healthcare and facilities like football pitches and swimming pools.

    In the past, communities have used some of the benefits they received from mining to build their own environmental monitoring units, hiring teams of hydrogeologists and lawyers to scrutinise miners’ activities.

    Espíndola said the new model could pave the way for more ambitious development projects such as water treatment plants and community solar energy projects.

    A man in a white shirt and glasses stands in front of a stone wall
    Sergio Cubillos, president of the Peine community, was one of the Indigenous representatives in the negotiations with Codelco and SQM (Photo credit: Formando Rutas/ Daniela Carvajal)

    Competition for water

    The depletion of water resources is one of local people’s biggest environmental concerns.

    To extract lithium from the salt flats, miners pump lithium-rich brine accumulated over millions of years in underground reservoirs into gigantic pools, where the water is left to evaporate under the sun and leaves behind lithium carbonate.

    One study has shown that the practice is causing the salt flat to sink by up to two centimetres a year. SQM recently said its current operations consume approximately 11,500 to 12,500 litres of industrial freshwater for every metric ton of lithium produced.

    NovaAndino has committed to significantly reduce the company’s water use by returning at least 30% of the water it extracts from the brine and eliminating the use of all freshwater in its operations within five years of obtaining an environmental permit.

      Cristina Dorador, a microbiologist at the University of Antofagasta, told Climate Home News that reinjecting the water underground is untested at a large scale and could impact the chemical composition of the salt flats.

      Continuing to extract lithium from the flats until 2060 could be the “final blow” for this fragile ecosystem, she said.

      Asked to comment on such concerns, NovaAndino said any new technology will be “subject to the highest regulatory standards”, and pledged to ensure transparency through “an updated monitoring system with the participation of Indigenous communities”.

      High price for hard-won gains

      For the five communities living on the doorstep of the lithium pools, one of the biggest gains is being granted physical access to the mining sites to monitor the lithium extraction and its impact on the salt flats.

      That is a first and will strengthen communities’ ability to call out environmental harms, said Sergio Cubillos, the community president of Peine, the village closest to the evaporation ponds. It could also give them the means to seek remediation through the courts if necessary, Espíndola said.

      Gaining such rights represents long-overdue progress, Cubillos said, but it has come at a high price for the Lickanantay people.

      “Communities receiving money today is what has ultimately led to this division, because we haven’t been able to figure out what we want, how we want it, and how we envision our future as a people,” he said.

      Main image: A truck loads concentrated brine at SQM’s lithium mine at the Atacama salt flat in Chile (Photo: REUTERS/Ivan Alvarado)

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      Roadmap launched to restart deadlocked UN plastics treaty talks

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      Diplomats will hold a series of informal meetings this year in a bid to revive stalled talks over a global treaty to curb plastic pollution, before aiming to reconvene for the next round of official negotiations at the end of 2026 or early 2027.

      Hoping to find a long-awaited breakthrough in the deeply divided UN process, the chair of the talks, Chilean ambassador Julio Cordano, released a roadmap on Monday to inject momentum into the discussions after negotiations collapsed at a chaotic session in Geneva last August.

      Cordano wrote in a letter that countries would meet in Nairobi from June 30 to July 3 for informal discussions to review all the components of the negotiations, including thorny issues such as efforts to limit soaring plastic production.

        The gathering should result in the drafting of a new document laying the foundations of a future treaty text with options on elements with divergent views, but “no surprises” such as new ideas or compromise proposals. This plan aims to address the fact that countries left Geneva without a draft text to work on – something Cordano called a “significant limitation” in his letter.

        “Predictable pathway”

        The meeting in the Kenyan capital will follow a series of virtual consultations every four to six weeks, where heads of country delegations will exchange views on specific topics. A second in-person meeting aimed at finding solutions might take place in early October, depending on the availability of funding.

        Cordano said the roadmap should offer “a predictable pathway” in the lead-up to the next formal negotiating session, which is expected to take place over 10 days at the end of 2026 or early 2027. A host country has yet to be selected, but Climate Home News understands that Brazil, Azerbaijan or Kenya – the home of the UN Environment Programme – have been put forward as options.

        Countries have twice failed to agree on a global plastics treaty at what were meant to be final rounds of negotiations in December 2024 and August 2025.

        Divisions on plastic production

        One of the most divisive elements of the discussions remains what the pact should do about plastic production, which, according to the UN, is set to triple by 2060 without intervention.

        A majority, which includes most European, Latin American, African and Pacific island nations, wants to limit the manufacturing of plastic to “sustainable levels”. But large fossil fuel and petrochemical producers, led by Saudi Arabia, the United States, Russia and India, say the treaty should only focus on managing plastic waste.

        As nearly all plastic is made from planet-heating oil, gas and coal, the sector’s trajectory will have a significant impact on global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

        Countries still far apart

        After an eight-month hiatus, informal discussions restarted in early March at an informal meeting of about 20 countries hosted by Japan.

        A participant told Climate Home News that, while the gathering had been helpful to test ideas, progress remained “challenging”, with national stances largely unchanged.

        The source added that countries would need to achieve a significant shift in positions in the coming months to make reconvening formal negotiations worthwhile.

        Deep divisions persist as plastics treaty talks restart at informal meeting

        Jacob Kean-Hammerson, global plastics policy lead at Greenpeace USA, said the new roadmap offers an opportunity for countries to “defend and protect the most critical provisions on the table”.

        He said that the document expected after the Nairobi meeting “must include and revisit proposals backed by a large number of countries, especially on plastic production, that have previously been disregarded”.

        “These measures are essential to addressing the crisis at its source and must be reinstated as a key part of the negotiations,” he added.

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