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Streetsblog USA today published my essay, Get the Facts About ‘Car Bloat’ and Pollution. I’ve cross-posted it here to allow comments.

 — C.K., Feb. 1, 2024

The increasing size of passenger vehicles has been catastrophic for road safetytraffic congestionclimate viability, and household budgets. Compared to sedans, brawnier sport utility vehicles and pickup trucks are far more likely to kill other road users, to clog urban streets and suburban roads, to guzzle fuel and emit particulates and carbon, and to keep their owners on a treadmill of car payments and pain at the pump.

Not only that, SUVs and pickups — collectively designated “light trucks” by regulators (“deregulators” is more apt) — may even engender more driving by owners seduced by their roominess, faux road-worthiness and illusion of indomitability. All 12 of the dozen models most preferred by gasoline “superusers” — drivers in the top decile of U.S. gasoline consumption — are SUVs or pickups, with the Chevy Silverado and Ford F150 topping the list.

As I wrote earlier this week, superusers manage the bizarre feat of averaging 40,000 miles a year* — a quantity of driving that consumes 13 percent of their owners’ waking hours — while burning 22 percent more fuel per mile than other U.S. drivers’ rides. Ivan Illich was right.

Just after Thanksgiving, The Guardian added its two cents with a story headlined, “Motor emissions could have fallen over 30 percent without SUV trends, report says.” Translated: Global CO2 emissions from passenger vehicles would have shrunk by nearly one-third if not for vehicle upsizing to SUVs and pickups.

Startling and damning, right? But it’s a vast overstatement: The true 2010-2022 “lost reduction” in passenger vehicles’ carbon emissions due to the growing share of big trucks worldwide was just 6 percent — five times less than the reported 30 percent.

Wait, am I cutting SUVs a break on their carbon spewing? Not at all. To deal effectively with climate we need to be clear about what’s destroying it.

The false 30-percent figure — which you’ll soon see wasn’t the fault of the Guardian — has begun worming its way into energy and climate discourse. This is unfortunate, since it serves to reinforce emphasis on the types of vehicles being made, sold and driven, when American motorists’ carbon profligacy is the inevitable result of our oversupply of pavement and our bias against full-cost pricing of driving.

Whence the error?

The Global Fuel Economy Initiative is a think tank funded by the European Commission, the Global Environment Facility, the UN Environment Programme and the FIA Foundation. Notwithstanding the fact that FIA is the “philanthropic arm” of the Fédération Internationale de l’Automobile (aka Formula One auto racing), GFEI produces high-caliber analysis and research.

GFEI’s November 2023 report, “Trends in the Global Vehicle Fleet 2023: Managing the SUV Shift and the EV Transition,” meticulously examined passenger-vehicle fuel consumption over the 12-year period, 2010 to 2022, and found that average fuel use (and, hence, per-mile carbon emissions) dropped by an average rate of 1.5 percent per year.

If not for more and heavier SUVs, the average annual decrease in emissions, according to the report, would have been around 1.95 percent, a rate that is 30 percent greater than the actual decline rate.

A 1.5-percent annual decrease in fuel intake per mile calculates to a total 16.6-percent total drop during the period. (See math box at the bottom of this post for the arithmetic.) Had the annual decrease been 1.95 percent, its 12-year drop would have been 21.5 percent. The gap between those two drops means that bigger car size worsened fuel economy 6 percent more than if car size had remained the same.

The Guardian, before (left) and after I got out my calculator. There’s a difference, but it’s not sharp enough.

Accordingly, the headline in the story should have been, “Motor Emissions Could Have Fallen 6 Percent More Without SUVs, Report Says,” but that’s not exactly eyeball-grabbing. But don’t blame Guardian reporter Helena Horton. She wrote her story off of GFEI’s press release, which (incorrectly) trumpeted a lost 30-percent gain in fuel economy due to “the SUV trend.”

After being contacted by me, GFEI’s study director immediately acknowledged his comms team’s error and labored mightily to get The Guardian to run a full correction. As you can tell from the side-by-side story headlines above, he was only partly successful.

The image on the left shows the original Nov. 24 Guardian headline and lede, retrieved via the Web’s Wayback Machine. The image on the right shows the corrected headline and lede since Dec. 18. The alterations are subtle nearly to the point of invisibility. The new “30 percent more” is confusing (30 percent more than what?), and the subhead is unaltered and thus plain wrong to say that the fall in emissions “would have been far more” than it was, had vehicle sizes stayed the same. No, the fall in emissions would have been 6 percent more — not exactly “far more.”

Why it’s important to correct the error

The Guardians erroneous “30-percent-less” headline, though not its fault, has the makings of a honey trap. New York Times climate columnist David Wallace-Wells fell for it on Twitter, along with esteemed climate pundit David Roberts. The Colorado-based climate think tank RMI got ensnared as well, as did our own Kea Wilson at Streetsblog USA. (RMI and Streetsblog quickly corrected their flubs after I emailed.) Consider this post an antidote to future repetitions, or, at least, a means to correct them.

It’s also worth touching on the innumeracy required to imagine that auto upsizing — “car bloat” in the evocative phrase popularized by journalist David Zipper — as loathsome as it is, stood in the way of a 30-percent gain in world-average auto fuel economy. The typical difference between sedan and “light truck” mpg is only around 20 percent, so even a universal switchover from all sedans to all light trucks would have put only a 20-percent dent in fuel economy.

Of course, the actual carbon damage due to vehicle SUV-ification over the 12 years studied has been far less — just 6 percent as we saw above — on account of longer vehicle turnover times. This should have been readily apparent to The Guardian reporter as well as the journalists and advocates who repeated the error on social media or websites. Errant quantification is hardly journalism’s number one albatross — free-falling revenues and shrinking newsrooms are orders of magnitude more consequential — but it lurks under the surface.

With greater numeracy, it might be easier for journalists, advocates and policymakers to grasp that vehicle electrification and shrinkage alone aren’t going to cut auto emissions at the rate needed.

Driving too must shrink. Collectively, road pricing, congestion pricing, curb pricing, carbon pricing, better transit and livable streets are almost certainly at least as important for climate as improved miles per gallon.

Carbon Footprint

CDR Credit Sales Hit Record High, Powering Market Growth in 2025

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The voluntary carbon market is booming in 2025. Allied Offsets data showed that in the first quarter of 2025, around 780,000 CDR credits were contracted — a surge of 122% compared to the same period in 2024.

Additionally, 16 million credits were sold in the first six months of 2025 – marking it the strongest start to a year so far. The momentum is fueled by major buyers like Microsoft, aiming to be carbon negative by 2030, and by a surge in biomass-based removal methods that are reshaping corporate offset strategies.

Why Carbon Dioxide Removal Credits Are Surging

Businesses are racing to hit climate targets faster, and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is emerging as the go-to solution. The biggest boost this year comes from biomass-based methods — like turning farming and forestry waste into tools for trapping CO₂. These projects are cheaper, easier to scale, and more accessible than high-cost tech such as direct air capture (DAC).

By early 2025, biomass CDR accounted for about 40% of credit volumes. Microsoft and other big players are securing large volumes, setting quality benchmarks, and pushing the market toward transparent, high-integrity projects.

Source: Zion Market Research

Technology Shifts in CDR

  • Biomass-based CDR — including BECCS, biochar, bio-oil, and biomass burial — made up a massive 94% of total volumes in the first half of 2025.

  • Investment focus, however, is still heavily skewed toward DAC and carbon utilization projects, despite other scalable and cost-effective CDR options.

  • More public awareness and funding diversity are needed to unlock the full potential of multiple CDR pathways.

New innovations are also redefining CDR. About 30% of new projects now use methods such as advanced soil carbon storage, bio-oil injection, and marine carbon removal, which can store CO₂ for hundreds or even thousands of years.

Digital MRV platforms are also transforming the space, offering real-time tracking to boost transparency, prevent fraud, and speed up purchase decisions. Meanwhile, integrated projects like agroforestry, regenerative agriculture, and biodiversity restoration are gaining traction for their multi-benefit environmental impact.

carbon dioxide removal CDR credits
Source: AlliedOffsets

Environmental Benefits of Biomass CDR

Biomass approaches like biochar and BECCS offer cost-effective solutions, often ranging from $80–$200 per ton.

These methods work within a circular economy model — repurposing agricultural and forestry waste into long-term carbon storage. BECCS delivers a dual benefit by producing renewable energy while storing CO₂ underground.

However, without strict MRV protocols, poorly managed biomass projects risk deforestation or biodiversity loss. Global removal capacity is still only 41 million tons CO₂/year, yet it needs to grow 25–100x by 2030 to meet climate goals.

Market Segmentation

By technology: DAC, afforestation & reforestation, soil carbon sequestration, BECCS, ocean-based CDR, and enhanced weathering.

  • DAC, holding 67% of global revenue in 2023, is set for the fastest growth thanks to flexible deployment and industrial CO₂ utilization.

By application: Consumer products, energy, transport, and industrial sectors.

  • The industrial sector leads due to rising emissions from cement, steel, and chemicals.

CDR Buyer Trends in 2025

  • Financial services firms led in the number of unique buyers, while technology companies dominated purchase volumes with over 50 million credits bought so far.

  • Half of all buyers in early 2025 were first-time participants, collectively purchasing around 6 million credits which is a promising sign of market expansion.

Market Momentum and Future Projections

The CDR market hit $3.9 billion in Q2 2025, with biomass projects making up 99% of transactions. Microsoft continues to drive momentum by locking in long-term purchase agreements that help projects scale.

Market forecasts suggest CDR’s value will grow from $842 million in 2025 to $2.85 billion by 2034, while durable carbon credits could soar to $14 billion by 2035, growing 38% annually.

Rising buyer expectations — around permanence, transparency, and quality — are further reinforced by new regulations, particularly in Europe, pushing out low-integrity credits.

CDR market
Source: Zion Market Research

Opportunities and Challenges Ahead

The CDR market stands to benefit from government-backed carbon incentives, increasing demand for carbon credits, and the potential to create new jobs in sectors such as farming, engineering, and construction. However, its growth faces hurdles, including limited public awareness of CDR’s advantages and the risk of political instability slowing adoption.

What’s Next for Carbon Dioxide Removal?

The market is at a turning point. Experts predict a blend of nature-based and durable removals, with the latter gaining ground toward 2050 as quality demands rise. The future will rely on smarter investments, high-fidelity data tracking, and clear global standards.

Corporate leaders like Microsoft are already showing the way — proving that transparency, permanence, and innovation will define the next era of climate action.

The post CDR Credit Sales Hit Record High, Powering Market Growth in 2025 appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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Toyota’s (TM Stock) Q1 Twist: Why Profits Dip But Hybrids Surge, and Net Zero Goals Accelerate

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Toyota’s (TM Stock) Q1 Twist: Why Profits Dip But Hybrids Surge, and Net Zero Goals Accelerate

Toyota Motor Corporation reported a sharp drop in earnings for the quarter ending June 30, 2025. Net profit fell 37% to ¥841 billion ($5.7 billion), down from ¥1.33 trillion a year earlier. This marked one of the steepest quarterly declines in recent years. Revenue, however, rose 3% year-over-year to ¥12 trillion ($82 billion), supported by strong demand in North America and Asia.

The primary drag came from new U.S. tariffs of 15% on Japanese car imports, which reduced profit by an estimated ¥450 billion. Higher costs for raw materials and a stronger yen hurt overseas earnings. Global inflation also impacted the results.

Toyota has revised its full-year operating profit forecast downward to ¥2.66 trillion ($18 billion). This speaks of a more cautious outlook for 2025. Analysts say the biggest automaker is keeping strong sales. However, profit margins face pressure from outside economic factors.

Amid the financial hiccup, the company reaffirmed its commitment to climate leadership. It aims for carbon neutrality with strong emissions targets, green manufacturing projects, and renewable energy investments. This effort is part of its Environmental Challenge 2050 framework.

Hybrids Take the Wheel as Sales Defy the Downturn

Global vehicle sales for the quarter reached 2.4 million units, up from 2.2 million a year ago. Toyota’s sales in North America rose nearly 20% in July. This boost came from its hybrid models, like the RAV4 Hybrid and Camry Hybrid, which both showed double-digit growth.

Toyota vehicle sales
Source: Toyota

Hybrid and plug-in hybrid models make up over one-third of Toyota’s total sales. This shows how important electrified powertrains are becoming in the company’s lineup.

Battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales, while still a smaller portion, increased steadily in markets with expanding charging infrastructure.

Toyota stayed on top in Japan and Southeast Asia. This was thanks to its compact cars and commercial vehicles. However, European sales dipped a bit due to tougher emissions rules and strong competition from local EV brands.

Toyota’s share price fell about 1.6% following the earnings announcement, as tariff concerns weighed on investor sentiment. Even with this dip, the stock still looks good. Its forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 6.9. That’s lower than the industry average of 8.0 and Toyota’s five-year average of 9.3.

toyota stock price
Source: TradingView

Driving Toward 2050: Toyota’s Net Zero Roadmap

Toyota has set a long-term target to achieve carbon neutrality across the entire life cycle of its vehicles by 2050. This goal covers emissions from all stages: vehicle design, production, use, and recycling. It also includes emissions from suppliers and logistics partners.

In its latest sustainability report, Toyota reported its Scope 1 and Scope 2 greenhouse gas emissions. These emissions, from direct operations and purchased electricity, reached around 2.05 million metric tons of CO₂e in FY 2024. This shows a 15% drop from FY 2019 levels. The company aims to cut these emissions by 68% by 2035, using 2019 as the baseline year.

For Scope 3 emissions, which account for most of Toyota’s footprint, targets are set. By 2030, Toyota aims for a 30% reduction from suppliers, logistics, and dealerships. They also seek a 35% cut in average vehicle-use emissions. These goals account for the fact that tailpipe emissions from vehicles remain the single largest part of the company’s climate impact.

Globally, Toyota is investing in solar, wind, hydrogen, and renewable natural gas to power its factories. It has also joined multiple international coalitions to accelerate low-carbon manufacturing and logistics.

The largest carmaker is investing a lot in renewable energy. They plan to use 45% renewable electricity in North America by 2026. By 2035, they aim for 100% renewable energy at all global plants.

Projects include:

  • Large-scale solar panel installations at assembly plants
  • Hydrogen-powered forklifts
  • Renewable natural gas systems at engine facilities.

The company’s approach combines electrification with manufacturing decarbonization. This includes hybrids, battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.

Toyota’s leaders think this multi-pathway strategy will reduce emissions quickly. This is especially true in areas where full BEV infrastructure is still growing. It also helps ensure steady progress toward the company’s 2050 carbon neutrality goal.

toyota ghg carbon emissions
Source: Toyota

In summary, the company’s near-term reduction targets are:

  • 68% reduction in Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 2035 (compared to 2019 levels).
  • 30% cut in Scope 3 emissions from suppliers, logistics, and dealerships by 2030.
  • Matching 45% of electricity use with renewables in North America by 2026.

Environmental Challenge 2050: Six Pillars of Action

Toyota’s Environmental Challenge 2050, launched in 2015, remains its guiding framework for sustainability. The initiative is built on six core challenges:

  1. Zero CO₂ emissions from new vehicles through hybrid, BEV, and hydrogen fuel cell adoption.
  2. Zero CO₂ emissions in manufacturing by shifting to renewable energy and low-carbon processes.
  3. Life cycle zero CO₂ emissions, including recycling and parts reuse.
  4. Minimizing water usage and improving water discharge quality.
  5. Protecting biodiversity around manufacturing sites and supply chains.
  6. Advancing a circular economy by extending product lifecycles and reducing waste.

Toyota aims to sell 1.5 million BEVs annually by 2026 and 3.5 million by 2030, alongside continuing hybrid and fuel cell development. This multi-path approach allows the company to meet varying customer needs and infrastructure readiness levels worldwide.

TOYOTA electrification milestone
Source: Toyota

Green Manufacturing: Major Investments in Low-Carbon Plants and ESG 

Toyota’s largest new sustainability investment is a ¥140 billion ($922 million) advanced paint facility in Georgetown, Kentucky. Set to open in 2027, the plant will reduce paint shop carbon emissions by 30% and cut water use by 1.5 million gallons annually.

In Japan, Toyota is piloting hydrogen-powered forklifts and solar-powered assembly lines. The company will use 100% renewable electricity for its manufacturing in Europe by 2030.

These projects reduce environmental impact and boost operational efficiency. They support Toyota’s goals of sustainability and profitability.

Beyond emissions, Toyota is strengthening its broader ESG performance. The company has strict human rights rules for suppliers. These rules include labor conditions, conflict minerals, and environmental compliance. By 2030, Toyota aims for 90% of its top suppliers to set their own science-based emissions targets.

In 2024, Toyota diverted 94% of waste from landfills globally and recycled over 99% of scrap metal from manufacturing. It also invested in reforestation projects in Asia and Africa as part of its carbon offset strategy.

Balancing Short-Term Pressures With Long-Term Goals

The April–June quarter highlighted Toyota’s resilience in the face of macroeconomic challenges. Tariffs and currency changes have hurt short-term profits. However, strong vehicle sales, especially in hybrids, keep the company competitive.

At the same time, Toyota is moving ahead with one of the most thorough sustainability programs in the auto industry. Its carbon neutrality goals and the Environmental Challenge 2050 framework guide its actions. Also, large-scale green manufacturing investments help meet the growing demands for cleaner mobility from regulators and consumers.

As Toyota navigates market volatility, its ability to deliver both financial and environmental strategies will be key to maintaining global leadership in the shift toward sustainable transportation.

The post Toyota’s (TM Stock) Q1 Twist: Why Profits Dip But Hybrids Surge, and Net Zero Goals Accelerate appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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JOBY Aviation Stock Soars on Blade Acquisition and Electric Air Taxi Commercial Launch Plans

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joby

Joby Aviation Inc. (NYSE: JOBY) is closing in on its dream of launching electric air taxis. The California-based company has spent years building its all-electric, vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, designed for fast, quiet, and convenient city travel.

Air Taxis: The Future of Fast, Clean, and Congestion-Free Urban Travel

Air taxis are small electric or hybrid aircraft that take off and land vertically, ideal for short city hops, airport transfers, and reaching remote areas. Target users include executives, business travelers, and emergency services. Countries like the U.S., Germany, and the UAE are investing heavily in supporting infrastructure.

A report highlighted that the global air taxi market, valued at USD 1.32 billion in 2024, is projected to hit USD 7.74 billion by 2033 at a 21.72% CAGR, driven by eVTOL technology, urban mobility demand, and congestion-free travel needs.

air taxi JOby
Source: Renub Research

Growth is fueled by advances in batteries, lightweight materials, and electric propulsion, making aircraft cleaner and more efficient, plus worsening city traffic that air taxis can bypass—cutting multi-hour trips to just 15–20 minutes.

This August, Joby made a series of bold moves that pushed it closer to commercial operations, from a high-profile acquisition and defense partnership to major FAA progress and manufacturing growth. Investors noticed, sending the stock near record highs.

Blade Deal Unlocks Instant Market Access and Growth

One of the month’s biggest headlines came on August 4, when Joby announced plans to acquire Blade Air Mobility’s passenger business for up to $125 million in cash or stock.

The deal is a game-changer. Blade brings premium infrastructure, including dedicated terminals at major New York airports and a strong presence in Southern Europe. More importantly, it comes with a loyal customer base — more than 50,000 passengers flew Blade in 2024.

By absorbing Blade’s passenger operations, Joby gains instant market access without the time and expense of building from scratch. The acquisition is expected to slash infrastructure costs, speed up customer acquisition, and put Joby ahead of competitors in key urban corridors.

The transaction is set to close in the coming weeks, pending customary approvals. Once complete, Blade’s passenger services will continue under Joby’s ownership, setting the stage for a smooth integration.

Defense Partnership Opens a New Revenue Stream

Joby revealed another major move, a collaboration with defense contractor L3Harris.

The partnership will develop a gas turbine hybrid variant of Joby’s existing eVTOL aircraft for low-altitude defense missions. The design aims to combine Joby’s manufacturing expertise with L3Harris’ deep defense technology capabilities.

Flight testing is set to begin this fall, with operational demonstrations planned during government exercises in 2026.

This venture signals Joby’s ambition to be more than just a commercial passenger service. By stepping into the defense sector, Joby diversifies its revenue streams and showcases its aircraft’s versatility for both civilian and military use.

FAA Certification Moves Into Final Stages

On August 6, Joby shared a crucial regulatory update. It has started final assembly of its first FAA-approved electric air taxi, a major step toward Type Inspection Authorization (TIA) flight testing. This stage needs FAA-approved test plans, a certified design, and proven manufacturing — all of which Joby has achieved, with over 50% of its test plans already accepted.

The aircraft, developed over years of testing, will fly with Joby pilots in 2025, followed by FAA pilots. Structural and systems tests have confirmed its strength and readiness.

Joby’s in-house design and manufacturing have boosted development and improved quality. With new facilities in California and Ohio, backed by Toyota, the company will soon be able to build up to 24 aircraft a year.

Cash-Rich and Backed by Toyota, Joby Eyes Massive Growth Ahead

  • Joby’s balance sheet is strong, ending Q2 2025 with $991 million in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities.

The company also closed the first $250 million tranche of a $500 million strategic investment from Toyota, one of Joby’s largest and most influential partners.

For 2025, Joby expects to use between $500 million and $540 million in cash, excluding the Blade acquisition. Revenue remains small, just $59,600 expected for Q2, but growth projections are huge, with a forecasted 900% year-on-year increase from a low base.

JoeBen Bevirt, founder and CEO of Joby, said,

“This is a pivotal moment. Regulatory progress around the world is unlocking market access, our commercialization strategy is taking hold, and we’re now focused on scaling production to meet real demand—a challenge we’re fully committed to and working hard to deliver on.” 

JOBY Stock Surge Reflects Growing Investor Confidence

Joby’s recent string of announcements sent its stock soaring. In the past month alone, shares have jumped more than 70% due to heavy trading. Year-to-date, the stock has risen 142%, surpassing its market capitalization of $14 billion.

However, volatility remains. Analyst price target changes and insider sales have caused swings, but the long-term outlook hinges more on regulatory milestones than short-term earnings.

JOBY
Source: Yahoo Finance

Manufacturing Expansion Doubles Output

To meet growing demand, Joby expanded its Marina, California, manufacturing facility to 435,000 square feet. This upgrade will double production capacity to 24 aircraft per year.

Meanwhile, its newly renovated Dayton, Ohio, site is ramping up to produce and test key aircraft components. Over time, Dayton could scale to build up to 500 aircraft annually, making it a cornerstone of Joby’s manufacturing strategy.

International Partnerships Boost Global Reach

Joby is not just looking at U.S. cities. The company also announced an expanded partnership with ANA Holdings in Japan.

The two companies plan to deploy over 100 Joby air taxis starting in Tokyo, creating an urban air mobility ecosystem complete with dedicated vertiports and operational support. The partnership will leverage Toyota’s network and government cooperation to fast-track development.

Joby also signed new agreements with Abdul Latif Jameel and ANA to explore deploying approximately 300 aircraft in other markets.

What’s Next for Joby Aviation?

With the Blade acquisition, defense partnership, FAA certification progress, and global expansion, Joby is executing on multiple fronts at once.

The next 12 months will be critical. If Joby completes certification on schedule, ramps production, and integrates Blade’s passenger network, it could be one of the first eVTOL companies to operate at scale.

For now, investors are betting big that Joby’s head start, strategic partnerships, and strong balance sheet will translate into a dominant position in the fast-emerging air taxi market.

Joby Aviation isn’t just inching toward launch; it’s accelerating. From New York to Dubai to Tokyo, the pieces are falling into place for a global eVTOL network. If all goes according to plan, 2026 could be the year flying taxis move from concept to reality.

The post JOBY Aviation Stock Soars on Blade Acquisition and Electric Air Taxi Commercial Launch Plans appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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