Investment giant BlackRock has released a new report outlining key developments expected to impact low-carbon transition-related investment opportunities and risks in 2024.
BlackRock singles out low-carbon transition as a major investment driver while emphasizing specific areas, including clean energy, electrification, and climate resilience.
The report anticipates a significant reallocation of capital towards rewiring energy systems and investing in climate resilience to mitigate risks.
In the outlook for 2024, BlackRock identified three key areas that stand out as potentially shaping the market significantly.
Electrifying Expectations: Battery Prices and Market Dynamics
Firstly, the downward trend in battery prices has the potential to drive increased demand for energy storage solutions in power grid infrastructure and the adoption of electric and hybrid vehicles.
Battery prices makes up a significant portion, often a third or more, of the production expenses for various clean technologies. These include energy storage systems for power grids and electric and hybrid vehicles (EVs).
Over the past decade, there has been a notable decline in battery prices, as shown in the chart below.

While there was a slight uptick in 2022, recent signals from battery producers suggest the potential for substantial price reductions in the coming year. This downward trajectory can be primarily due to an 80% drop in lithium prices, a crucial component, driven by increased supply.
Intense market competition and rapid technological advancements also contribute to lowering prices. Some companies are leveraging artificial intelligence, another influential force, to explore novel battery materials, further driving down future costs.
The key question remains whether this continued decline in battery prices will translate into reduced final purchase prices. In turn, this can potentially spur greater demand for energy storage systems, EVs, and hybrid vehicles.
Given their lower operational costs compared to traditional internal combustion vehicles, such a trend could have significant implications for the broader automotive industry and energy sector.
Political Power Plays
Secondly, upcoming elections worldwide could significantly impact future energy and industrial policies, influencing the direction of transition efforts, per BlackRock report.
The year 2024 sees a multitude of elections across significant regions like the European Union, the United States, and India.
Governments worldwide are grappling with the delicate balancing act of pursuing decarbonization while ensuring energy security and affordability. The outcomes of these elections could profoundly influence how this balance is achieved and consequently impact the trajectory of the low-carbon transition and adoption of clean technology globally.
Many governments are actively subsidizing their energy and clean technology sectors, creating pricing and margin pressures for non-subsidized competitors.
Moreover, election results may prompt changes in transition-related policies, potentially either accelerating or slowing down the transition in different regions. For instance, in India, continuity in policy post-election could speed up decarbonization efforts and bolster the country’s position as a leading clean technology production hub.
Similarly, the outcome of the U.S. election could have implications for existing legislation, such as the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, which has catalyzed significant investments in energy infrastructure and technology.
Possible changes range from repeal or delays to complementary policies aimed at enhancing its effectiveness, such as land permitting reform.
Weathering the Storm
Lastly, another crucial focus in 2024 revolves around the impact of climate change-induced extreme weather events, prompted by 2023 as the hottest year on record by the World Meteorological Organization. This trend is expected to continue this year, further highlighting the urgent need for climate resilience measures.
Investors are beginning to show greater interest in companies and technologies that contribute to climate resilience. This includes innovations such as early monitoring systems for floods, air conditioning solutions to combat heatwaves, and building retrofitting for enhanced resilience against extreme weather events.
Despite this growing interest, markets may still underestimate the potential for firms specializing in resilience-boosting products and services.
Overall, BlackRock anticipates that falling battery prices could stimulate growth in the EV and energy storage industries in 2024. However, the direction of the global transition policy post-election will heavily influence investment opportunities and risks. As physical climate risks mount, the report suggests that climate resilience could emerge as a prominent investment theme this year.
Apart from the transition to a low-carbon economy, BlackRock also tracks these four other mega forces:
- Demographic divergence
- Digital disruption and artificial intelligence (AI)
- Geopolitical fragmentation and economic competition
- Future of finance
BlackRock’s report underscores the dynamic landscape of low-carbon investments in 2024, driven by evolving market dynamics, political shifts, and climate resilience imperatives. As battery prices decline and election outcomes unfold, investors face both opportunities and risks in navigating the transition to a sustainable future.
The post BlackRock’s Insights on 2024 Low-Carbon Transition Investment Trends appeared first on Carbon Credits.
Carbon Footprint
The Strategic Case for Nature-Based Carbon Investments
Nature-based carbon investments deserve consideration when they address a specific business dependency and produce outcomes you can measure. Imagine Moonbucks, a global coffee roaster planning next season’s espresso blend. It is considering natural Grade 4 coffee from Jimma, in southwestern Oromia, Ethiopia. Its sourcing decisions affect the roasting schedule and the cash tied up in coffee purchases. Moonbucks needs to understand which measures could protect that supply, what they would cost and how it would judge the results.
1. Define the sourcing problem before choosing a project
Moonbucks needs a dependable component for its espresso blend. Its procurement team wants continuity of volume and an agreed cup profile. Replacing a shipment at short notice could require new sample approval and changes to the blend, and given the schedules for cultivation, processing, and freight delivery, is practically impossible. Moonbucks needs to get this right, and its initial concern is inconsistent deliveries. It commissions an assessment of the supplying farms and post-harvest chain. The questions cover land condition, harvest availability and whether drying or storage problems are affecting saleable lots.
This distinction changes the investment brief. A tree-planting proposal cannot be assumed to fix drying problems. Better storage cannot restore eroded land. The team must establish which problem exists before selecting the response.
CCC’s guide to finding nature-based solutions in your supply chain explains where to look. Here, the next task is to turn a broad concern into a testable proposal.
2. Develop nature-based carbon investments around the actual supply chain
The assessment would trace Moonbucks’ purchases back through the exporter and supplying producer groups. Which farms supply the contracted lots? Who controls land-management decisions? How long does the buyer expect to maintain the purchasing relationship?
Furthermore, Jimma natural Grade 4 cannot be treated as interchangeable with every Ethiopian coffee. Moonbucks would need to test any substitute against its own blend and quality requirements.
Suppose Moonbucks’ assessment identifies an opportunity to maintain shade trees and restore vegetation along exposed streambanks. The IPCC describes agroforestry as a way to store carbon in vegetation and soil, with potential benefits for erosion control and water quality.1 Moonbucks would need local advice on species, growing conditions and maintenance before deciding how these measures fit its sourcing plan.
The proposal now has a defined sourcing connection and a candidate intervention. The next steps are to test its effect on production, assess carbon eligibility and build the financial case.
3. Compare the proposal with other ways to protect supply
WBCSD’s Nature-based Solutions Blueprint recommends comparing nature-based options with other responses across their benefits and costs.2 For Moonbucks, that means evaluating the landscape proposal alongside drying improvements, storage controls and alternative sourcing arrangements.
The product’s natural-process designation matters. Moonbucks should examine the drying and dry-milling chain alongside land conditions. Its team would check storage practices, contamination risks and incoming-lot quality to see whether problems arise before or after the coffee leaves the farms.
The revised proposal might combine land stewardship with separate post-harvest controls. Each component needs its own purpose and budget. A sustainability label should not obscure which activity is expected to solve which problem.
The project develops as the evidence improves. Its scope should follow the diagnosis rather than preserve the first idea unchanged.
4. Establish what the carbon outcome could count toward
Moonbucks’ sustainability team now tests the proposed carbon case separately from the sourcing case. Is the objective a measurable change in Moonbucks’ value-chain emissions, verified credits for separate voluntary use, or distinct outcomes under carefully defined arrangements?
Scope 3 covers value-chain emissions. A purchasing relationship alone does not prove that a farm intervention can be included in Moonbucks’ inventory. The team needs an applicable accounting method, defensible boundaries and evidence supporting attribution.
SBTi’s FLAG Guidance (forest, land and agriculture), version 1.2, says purchased credits used as offsets cannot meet near-term FLAG or energy and industry targets. Eligible land-based removals are subject to accounting requirements.3 Moonbucks needs to test its proposal against those rules before including an outcome in its targets.
For Moonbucks’ Jimma proposal, maintaining existing trees and establishing new vegetation could involve different carbon questions. Specialists must examine the baseline and additionality, meaning what changes because the project proceeds. They must also assess measurement and the risk that stored carbon is lost. CCC’s MRV and additionality article introduces those tests.
Until that work is complete, Moonbucks should not budget an assumed Scope 3 reduction or credit-sale receipt. Direct emissions reductions remain the priority.
5. Build a financial case that survives weaker assumptions
Moonbucks’ finance team would now build a multi-year budget. UNEP’s State of Finance for Nature 2023 compares current finance with the investment needed to meet climate, biodiversity and land-restoration goals.4 The company would cost its proposed activities, farmer participation and ongoing monitoring. Verification, where required, is a separate expense. Maintenance and responsibility for replacing failed plantings must remain visible after the initial establishment budget ends.
Operational benefits need equally careful treatment. If fewer rejected lots reduce emergency purchasing, count that saving once. Do not add “supply resilience” as another financial benefit when it represents the same avoided cost.
Moonbucks should compare a base case with slower benefits, higher implementation costs and no carbon revenue. It should also distinguish production outcomes from quality and shipment outcomes. A single good harvest would not prove that the landscape intervention caused better delivery performance.
A project can remain worth funding even when its carbon case needs more work. That decision must rest on the operational evidence and the company’s objectives, without unsupported environmental claims.
6. Fund a pilot with a clear expansion decision
Moonbucks’ first approval would fund a bounded pilot, rather than commit the entire sourcing program. Before spending, Moonbucks would agree on participating farms, responsibilities and the evidence needed at review.
Its scorecard could track farmer participation, implementation costs and plant survival, alongside accepted coffee volumes and lot-quality results. Carbon measurements would follow the selected method. Farm-level traceability must connect the intervention to the actual sourcing relationship.
Suppose Moonbucks’ review later finds that storage changes explain most quality improvements, while the land measures need longer observation. Those findings would shape the next decision: expand the proven component, adjust the landscape work or pause further spending. They would not justify crediting all improvements to tree planting.
This gives nature-based carbon investments a practical place in a multi-year strategy. Funding increases as the evidence supports it, and the project can change direction before a larger commitment.
Discuss a sourcing opportunity with CCC
Carbon Credit Capital’s nature-based supply-chain investment service uses its Dual-Value Model to examine supply-chain economics alongside potential sustainability outcomes.
Schedule a consultation to discuss your sourcing exposure and the questions to resolve before allocating capital.
Sources
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change, Chapter 7, Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses, section 7.4.3.3 (Agroforestry).
- World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD), Nature-based Solutions Blueprint, 5 June 2024.
- Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi), Forest, Land and Agriculture Science-Based Target-Setting Guidance, version 1.2, March 2026, section 3.1.4, pp. 37–38.
- United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), State of Finance for Nature 2023, 2023.
Carbon Footprint
How to buy plastic credits, and what to check before you do
A plastic credit funds the collection of plastic waste in places where no formal system exists to collect it. Each credit represents a measured, independently audited quantity of plastic taken out of the environment or returned to use, tracked on a public registry.
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Carbon Footprint
EU carbon credit claims after 27 September 2026
EU carbon credit claims changed on 27 September 2026, the day the Directive (EU) 2024/825 began to apply across the European Union. The change is narrow. It changes how a company can talk about the credits it buys. A product can no longer be called neutral on the strength of compensation alone; however, every specific, evidenced statement about what a company measured, reduced, and funded stays fully available.
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