More consistent refrigeration of foods as they move from one part of the supply chain to another could cut almost 2bn tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions from food loss each year, according to a new study.
Around one-third of all food produced goes to waste, producing climate-warming greenhouse gases as it rots.
New research, published in Environmental Research Letters, finds that poorly temperature-controlled food supply chains could be causing up to 620m tonnes of food losses each year.
This loss results in 1.8bn tonnes of CO2-equivalent (GtCO2e) emissions – more than three times the annual emissions of Canada.
Using more refrigeration when food is processed and transported could more than halve the food-loss emissions in south and south-east Asia, the study says.
In addition, shortening food supply chains could significantly reduce emissions and prevent food loss around the world, the study finds.
A scientist who was not involved in the research tells Carbon Brief that the results “reflect a worrying reality” on food waste, but notes that the findings are “uncertain”.
The lead author of the study says that there are caveats to some of the findings and adds that not every region can, or should, base their food supply system on refrigeration.
Wasted food
Along a supply chain that sees food grown, processed, transported and consumed, around one-third of all food goes to waste.
If it were a country, this food waste would be the third-largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in the world, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization.
A 2023 study also found that greenhouse gases from food loss and waste make up almost half of all food-system emissions.
Food loss refers to all of the edible parts of food that are thrown away in the early parts of the supply chain, according to a report from the UN Environment Programme.
This includes vegetables that rot in fields before being picked, crops hit by disease and meat that spoils due to lack of transport refrigeration.
Food waste, on the other hand, is discarded food that is not consumed by people at a retail, food service or household level.
Food loss and waste produces methane as it rots in landfills or dump sites. Emissions from food loss also stem from the land-use change, energy and resources required to grow the food in the first place, particularly animal products.
The new study examines whether more consistent access to refrigeration throughout the supply chain could impact food loss – and the resulting greenhouse gas emissions – for different food types around the world.
Alongside the benefits of refrigeration, the study finds that supplying foods more locally can greatly reduce food losses.
This was the most surprising finding, according to Aaron Friedman-Heiman, the lead author of the study. Friedman-Heiman, a recent graduate from the school for environment and sustainability at the University of Michigan, tells Carbon Brief:
“The thing that shocked me the most was actually how comparable shortened food supply chains were to technologically optimised food supply chains.
“We can make all these systems really efficient, but also if we just get rid of a lot of the steps, that is another kind of way of optimising these systems.”
Prof Ian Vázquez-Rowe, an engineering professor at the Pontifical Catholic University of Peru who was not involved in the research, says that the study is “thorough” and relevant, “especially in countries and households with poor refrigeration systems”. He tells Carbon Brief:
“The results are probably quite uncertain, as in most planetary-based estimations, but they reflect a worrying reality: food supply chains are inefficient, especially in emerging and developing nations, and this leads to higher amounts of food loss and waste in the agri-food sector.”
Estimating food loss
The researchers developed a model to see whether consistent access to refrigeration could impact food losses and greenhouse gas emissions for seven groups of food: seafood; fruit and vegetable; oilseeds and pulses; root and tuber crops; meat; dairy; and cereals.
The study focuses solely on food that is lost between harvesting and reaching a supermarket shelf. It does not look at food waste, which is the food discarded in shops, restaurants and households.
The researchers look at the improvements that could occur with better refrigeration throughout the food supply chain. They also look at the impact of making food more locally available, thereby shortening these supply chains.
The study focuses on seven regions around the world: Europe, “industrialised Asia” (countries such as China), Latin America, north Africa and central Asia, North America and Oceania, south and south-east Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.
For each combination of region and food type, the researchers investigate three scenarios: a “baseline” scenario, using current loss rates; an “optimised” scenario, using minimum loss rates with added refrigeration capacity; and a “short” scenario, using current loss rates across a reduced supply chain.
The chart below outlines the baseline and optimised scenarios for food loss and the resulting greenhouse gas emissions. It shows that although fruit and vegetable losses are largest in terms of weight, meat losses are the source of the largest emissions by far.
Combining refrigeration and shorter supply chains
Sub-Saharan Africa and south and south-east Asia would stand to see the biggest reductions in food loss and related greenhouse gas emissions with better refrigeration and localised supply chains, the study finds.
For example, improved refrigeration could save more than 100m tonnes of fruit and vegetables each year in south and south-east Asia. It could also reduce overall food loss in the region by 45% and more than halve the associated emissions. In sub-Saharan Africa, it could cut these emissions by two-thirds.
Globally, better refrigeration of meat could cut emissions linked to meat loss by more than 40%.
Meat accounts for more than half (2.7 gigatonnes) of food loss and waste greenhouse gas emissions – despite making up less than 10% of global food loss and waste, the study says.
The benefits of refrigeration in reducing food loss are more modest in global north countries with existing temperature-controlled food supply chains.
The study finds that, on a global level, making food supply chains more local can have a bigger impact on saving food than improving refrigeration.
Localised supply chains could reduce emissions from rotting meat in industrialised countries by more than 300m tonnes of CO2e emissions each year, the study adds.
Combining the two solutions – shorter supply chains and better refrigeration – can help to reduce food losses and slash the energy burden and emissions from refrigeration.
Other factors
Vázquez-Rowe says that the study findings are “plausible” and that they “reflect a structural problem of food systems”. But, he adds:
“There is a lack of uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, which does not allow for a full analysis of the certainty of the results they provide.”
The authors acknowledge other limitations in the study, such as not considering the emissions from refrigerators in their calculations.
Previous research indicates that refrigeration may even increase food emissions through higher energy use and the dietary shifts that refrigeration allows.
The study also does not consider various social, cultural, political, nutritional and economic factors that influence food systems.
Areas with unreliable energy systems may not want to – or may not be able to – rely more heavily on refrigeration technologies. Friedman-Heiman explains:
“If a region doesn’t have stable energy infrastructure, then the idea of basing a food system off of refrigeration is actually maybe less sustainable in terms of food loss and waste than what they currently have.”
He is hopeful researchers, policymakers and others in the food industry can use the model and further the research on a wider level. He tells Carbon Brief:
“I would love for this model to incorporate regional energy grids and what that impact might be in terms of changing the emissions equation…[alongside] pitting the food savings against the refrigeration [emissions].”
The study also acknowledges that shorter supply chains are not always feasible, depending on geographical location and the seasonality of different foods.
The post Better refrigeration could avoid almost 2bn tonnes of CO2 per year from food loss appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Better refrigeration could avoid almost 2bn tonnes of CO2 per year from food loss
Weather extremes fuel wildfires that have burned through tens of thousands of acres across Georgia, Florida and other states.
Drought and fire are a dangerous duo. The Southeastern United States is witnessing this firsthand as several major blazes burn tens of thousands of acres across the parched region, destroying homes and prompting evacuations in some areas. Florida and Georgia have been particularly hard hit, and strong winds and unusually low humidity have made it difficult to combat the flames.
Drought Turns Southeastern US Into ‘Tinderbox’ as Wildfires Rage
Climate Change
Night Skies and Shifting Stars: How Indigenous Celestial Knowledge Tracks a Changing Climate
When the land no longer answers the stars the way it once did, Indigenous peoples are among the first to notice — and the first to ask why.
A Sky Full of Knowledge
Look up on a clear night on Turtle Island and you’re seeing a sky that has guided human life for thousands of years. Across Indigenous nations in Canada, detailed systems of celestial knowledge developed not as abstract science but as living, practical guides —telling people when to plant, when to harvest, when herds would move, and when ice would come. This astronomical knowledge was woven into language, ceremony, and everyday life, passed down through generations with remarkable precision.
The Mi’kmaq and the Celestial Bear
Among the Mi’kmaq of Atlantic Canada, star stories are ecological calendars, precise and functional. The story of Muin and the Seven Bird Hunters connects the annual movement of what Western astronomy calls Ursa Major to the seasonal cycle of hunting and harvest: the bear rises in spring, is hunted through summer, and falls to earth in autumn. This knowledge was brought to broader public attention in 2009 during the International Year of Astronomy, when Mi’kmaq Elders Lillian Marshall of Potlotek First Nation and Murdena Marshall of Eskasoni First Nation shared the story through an animated film produced at Cape Breton University narrated in English, French, and Mi’kmaq.¹ The story encodes specific observations about when and where to hunt, and which species to expect at which time of year. It is science in narrative form.
The Anishinaabe and the Seasonal Star Map
Among the Anishinaabe peoples of the Great Lakes and northern Ontario, celestial knowledge forms part of a comprehensive seasonal understanding. Knowledge keepers like Michael Wassegijig Price of Wikwemikong First Nation have described how Anishinaabe constellations quite different from those of Western astronomy connect the movement of the heavens to naming ceremonies, seasonal gatherings, and land practices.² The Royal Astronomical Society of Canada now offers planispheres featuring Indigenous constellations from Cree, Ojibwe, and Dakota sky traditions, recognizing their value as both cultural heritage and ecological knowledge systems.³
When the Stars and the Land Fall Out of Rhythm
Here’s the challenge that climate change has introduced: the stars still move on their ancient, reliable schedule. But the land no longer always responds as expected. Migratory birds that once arrived when certain constellations appeared are now showing up earlier or later. Ice that once formed in predictable windows is forming weeks late, or not at all. Berry harvests, fish runs, animal migrations, all once timed by celestial cues accumulated over millennia are shifting. Indigenous knowledge holders across Canada describe this as a kind of dissonance: the sky remains faithful, but the land has changed.⁴
Long-Baseline Ecological Records
Far from being historical curiosity, Indigenous celestial knowledge systems are now being recognized by researchers as long-baseline ecological calendars —records of how nature behaved over centuries, encoded in story and ceremony. When an Elder observes that a particular star rising no longer predicts the arrival of certain geese, that observation represents a departure from a pattern that may have held true for hundreds of years. The Climate Atlas of Canada integrates Indigenous knowledge observations alongside western climate data, recognizing that both contribute meaningfully to understanding ecological change.⁵
Keeping the Knowledge Alive
Language revitalization and land-based education programs are helping ensure this knowledge reaches the future. From youth astronomy nights on-reserve to the integration of Indigenous sky stories in school curricula, there is growing recognition that these knowledge systems belong to what comes next, not only what came before. As Canada grapples with accelerating ecological change, the quiet precision of thousands of years of skyward observation offers something no satellite can fully replicate: a continuous record of the relationship between the cosmos and a living land.
Blog by Rye Karonhiowanen Barberstock
Image Credit: Dustin Bowdige, Unsplash
References
[1] Marshall, L., Marshall, M., Harris, P., & Bartlett, C. (2010). Muin and the Seven Bird Hunters: A Mi’kmaw Night Sky Story. Cape Breton University Press. See also: Integrative Science, CBU. (2009). Background on the Making of the Muin Video for IYA2009. http://www.integrativescience.ca/uploads/activities/BACKGROUND-making-video-Muin-Seven-Bird-Hunters-IYA-binder.pdf
[2] Price, M.W. (Various). Anishinaabe celestial knowledge. Wikwemikong First Nation. Referenced in: Royal Astronomical Society of Canada Indigenous Astronomy resources.
[3] Royal Astronomical Society of Canada. (2020). Indigenous Skies planisphere series. RASC. https://www.rasc.ca/indigenous-skies
[4] Neilson, H. (2022, December 11). The night sky over Mi’kmaki: A Q&A with astronomer Hilding Neilson. CBC News. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/hilding-neilson-indigenizing-astronomy-1.6679072
[5] Climate Atlas of Canada. (2024). Prairie Climate Centre, University of Winnipeg. https://climateatlas.ca/
The post Night Skies and Shifting Stars: How Indigenous Celestial Knowledge Tracks a Changing Climate appeared first on Indigenous Climate Hub.
https://indigenousclimatehub.ca/2026/04/night-skies-and-shifting-stars-how-indigenous-celestial-knowledge-tracks-a-changing-climate/
A much-discussed “return to coal” by some countries in the wake of the Iran war is likely to be far more limited than thought, amounting to a global rise of no more than 1.8% in coal power output this year.
The new analysis by thinktank Ember, shared exclusively with Carbon Brief, is a “worst-case” scenario and the reality could be even lower.
Separate data shows that, to date, there has been no “return to coal” in 2026.
While some countries, such as Japan, Pakistan and the Philippines, have responded to disrupted gas supplies with plans to increase their coal use, the new analysis shows that these actions will likely result in a “small rise” at most.
In fact, the decline of coal power in some countries and the potential for global electricity demand growth to slow down could mean coal generation continues falling this year.
Experts tell Carbon Brief that “the big story isn’t about a coal comeback” and any increase in coal use is “merely masking a longer-term structural decline”.
Instead, they say clean-energy projects are emerging as more appealing investments during the fossil-fuel driven energy crisis.
‘Return to coal’
The conflict following the US-Israeli attacks on Iran has disrupted global gas supplies, particularly after Iran blocked the strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint in the Persian Gulf.
A fifth of the world’s liquified natural gas (LNG) is normally shipped through this region, mainly supplying Asian countries. The blockage in this supply route means there is now less gas available and the remaining supplies are more expensive.
(Note that while the strait usually carries a fifth of LNG trade, this amounts to a much smaller share of global gas supplies overall, with most gas being moved via pipelines.)
With gas supplies constrained and prices remaining well above pre-conflict levels, at least eight countries in Asia and Europe have announced plans to increase their coal-fired electricity generation, or to review or delay plans to phase out coal power.
These nations include Japan, South Korea, Bangladesh, the Philippines, Thailand, Pakistan, Germany and Italy. Many of these nations are major users of coal power.
Such announcements have triggered a wave of reporting by global media outlets and analysts about a “return to coal”. Some have lamented a trend that is “incompatible with climate imperatives”, while others have even framed this as a positive development that illustrates coal’s return “from the dead”.
This mirrors a trend seen after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which many commentators said would lead to a surge in European coal use, due to disrupted gas supplies from Russia.
In fact, despite a spike in 2022, EU coal use has returned to its “terminal decline” and reached a historic low in 2025.
Gas to coal
So far, the evidence suggests that there has been no return to coal in 2026.
Analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air found that, in March, coal power generation remained flat globally and a fall in gas-fired generation was “offset by large increases in solar and wind power, rather than coal”.
However, as some governments only announced their coal plans towards the end of March, these figures may not capture their impact.
To get a sense of what that impact could be, Ember assessed the impact of coal policy changes and market responses across 16 countries, plus the 27 member states of the EU, which together accounted for 95% of total coal power generation in 2025.
For each country, the analysis considers a maximum “worst-case” scenario for switching from gas to coal power in the face of high gas prices.
It also considers the potential for any out-of-service coal power plants to return and for there to be delays in previously expected closures as a result of the response to the energy crisis.
Ember concludes that these factors could increase coal use by 175 terawatt hours (TWh), or 1.8%, in 2026 compared to 2025.
(This increase is measured relative to what would have happened without the energy crisis and does not account for wider trends in electricity generation from coal, which could see demand decline overall. Last year, coal power dropped by 63TWh, or 0.6%.)
Roughly three-quarters of the global effect in the Ember analysis is from potential gas-to-coal switching in China and the EU.
Other notable increases could come from switching in India and Indonesia and – to a lesser extent – from coal-policy shifts in South Korea, Bangladesh and Pakistan.
However, widely reported policy changes by Japan, Thailand and the Philippines are estimated to have very little, if any, impact on coal-power generation in 2026. The table below briefly summarises the potential for and reasoning behind the estimated increases in coal generation in each country in 2026.
Dave Jones, chief analyst at Ember, stresses that the 1.8% figure is an upper estimate, telling Carbon Brief:
“This would only happen if gas prices remained very high for the rest of the year and if there were sufficient coal stocks at power plants. The real risk of higher coal burn in 2026 comes not from coal units returning…but rather from pockets of gas-to-coal switching by existing power plants, primarily in China and the EU.”
Moreover, Jones says there is a real chance that global coal power could continue falling over the course of this year, partly driven by the energy crisis. He explains:
“If the energy crisis starts to dent electricity demand growth, coal generation – as well as gas generation – might actually be lower than before the crisis.”
‘Structural decline’
Energy experts tell Carbon Brief that Ember’s analysis aligns with their own assessments of the state of coal power.
Coal already had lower operation costs than gas before the energy crisis. This means that coal power plants were already being run at high levels in coal-dependent Asian economies that also use imported LNG to generate electricity. As such, they have limited potential to cut their need for LNG by further increasing coal generation.
Christine Shearer, who manages the global coal plant tracker at Global Energy Monitor, tells Carbon Brief that, in the EU, there is a shrinking pool of countries where gas-to-coal switching is possible:
“In Europe, coal fleets are smaller, older and increasingly uneconomic, while wind, solar and storage are becoming more competitive and widespread.”
In the context of the energy crisis, Italy has announced plans to delay its coal phaseout from 2025 to 2038. This plan, dismissed by the ECCO thinktank as “ineffective and costly”, would have minimal impact given coal only provides around 1% of the country’s power.
Notably, experts say that there is no evidence of the kind of structural “return to coal” that would spark concerns about countries’ climate goals. There have been no new coal plants announced in recent weeks.
Suzie Marshall, a policy advisor working on the “coal-to-clean transition” at E3G, tells Carbon Brief:
“We’re seeing possible delayed retirements and higher utilisation [of existing coal plants], as understandable emergency measures to keep the lights on, but not investment in new coal projects…Any short-term increase in coal consumption that we may see in response to this ongoing energy crisis is merely masking a longer-term structural decline.”
With cost-competitive solar, wind and batteries given a boost over fossil fuels by the energy crisis, there have been numerous announcements about new renewable energy projects since the start of war, including from India, Japan and Indonesia.
Shearer says that, rather than a “sustained coal comeback” in 2026, the Iran war “strengthens the case for renewables”. She says:
“If anything, a second gas shock in less than five years strengthens the case for renewables as the more secure long-term path.”
Jones says that Ember expects “little change in overall fossil generation, but with a small rise in coal and a fall in gas” in 2026. He adds:
“This would maximise gas-to-coal switching globally outside of the US, leaving no possibility for further switching in future years. Therefore, the big story isn’t about a coal comeback. It’s about how the relative economics of renewables, compared to fossil fuels, have been given a superboost by the crisis.”
The post World ‘will not see significant return to coal’ in 2026 – despite Iran crisis appeared first on Carbon Brief.
World ‘will not see significant return to coal’ in 2026 – despite Iran crisis
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