Sergio Díaz is legal director at the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative.
As governments submit their updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) ahead of COP30, almost all of them share one glaring omission. While the climate plans speak of expanding renewables or boosting efficiency, almost none directly confront the other side of the equation – the production and use of fossil fuels.
This silence is indefensible. Ignoring fossil fuels – the primary source of greenhouse gas emissions – not only defies scientific imperatives to cut emissions at the source, it undermines countries’ legal obligations under the Paris Agreement and customary international law, as clarified by the International Court of Justice (ICJ). In contrast, decisive commitments would uphold their legal obligations, protect the 1.5C global warming threshold and secure the just transition the world urgently needs.
For years, governments have deliberately sidestepped fossil fuels in their climate plans, highlighting renewables and net-zero targets while continuing to expand oil, fossil gas and coal with impunity. States know fossil fuels are driving the climate crisis, yet according to the latest Production Gap Report by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), they still plan to produce 120% more by 2030 than is compatible with 1.5C.
Fossil fuel impunity
That impunity needs to end. International courts have now removed any doubt that such conduct is not only scientifically reckless, it can also be unlawful.
In its July advisory opinion, the ICJ – the world’s highest court – confirmed that states must act with due diligence to prevent significant environmental harm, and that the content of their NDCs matters. Submitting a plan that ignores fossil fuels while approving new drilling licenses or maintaining subsidies may constitute an internationally wrongful act.
The Inter-American Court of Human Rights reached the same conclusion this year, ruling that states are legally obliged to regulate fossil fuel exploration, extraction, transport and processing in order to protect human rights.
Two rare exceptions – Colombia and Vanuatu – show the legal and political pathway that others must now follow. Both countries explicitly address fossil fuel production and use in their updated NDCs, and have also joined calls for a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty. Colombia has suspended new oil and gas exploration contracts, is planning the phase-out of coal power, and has become the first Latin American country to endorse the Treaty initiative.
While not a fossil fuel producer, Vanuatu, for its part, is spearheading the Pacific call for a Fossil Fuel Free Pacific and advocating for new governance structures such as a Pacific Energy Commissioner, alongside a global Fossil Fuel Treaty. As stated in its NDC, Vanuatu aims to steer the Pacific into becoming the “first region in the world to achieve the equitable phaseout of fossil fuel production and use”.
Weak NDCs fuel climate disasters
But for now, the example set by these two countries is the exception, not the rule. Excluding goals for cutting fossil fuel production or consumption from national climate plans is not a technical oversight – it is a failure with direct human and planetary costs.
Every weak NDC and every new drilling licence means more lives lost: from deadly heatwaves to rising seas swallowing homes, to communities displaced by fires and floods.
Instead, NDCs should include concrete measures to phase out fossil fuel production and consumption based on quantified equitable targets, halt new licensing, end subsidies and support workers and communities through a just transition. Failure to do so will undoubtedly pave the way for climate litigation worldwide, but sadly, not in time to prevent further climate catastrophes.
The ICJ has spoken, science has spoken, communities on the frontlines have spoken, and the message is simple: the threat of fossil fuels must be addressed urgently and directly.
Time for non-proliferation treaty
But no country can take on this task alone, which is why Colombia and Vanuatu have joined a growing group of 17 countries calling for a global Fossil Fuel Treaty.
What could a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty look like?
Similar to past treaties that ended the spread of nuclear weapons or landmines, the pact would create a framework to halt fossil fuel expansion, phase out production fairly and mobilise the necessary finance for a just transition. It would not replace stronger, more ambitious NDCs, but instead help governments to deliver on their plans.
As governments finalise their new NDCs, they should follow the path charted by Colombia, Vanuatu and other nations participating in the development of a Fossil Fuel Treaty to promote quantified fossil fuels phase-out targets, international cooperation and a livable, fair future for all. There is still time.
The post Countries must confront fossil fuels head-on in their NDCs appeared first on Climate Home News.
Climate Change
Big fishing nations secure last-minute seat to write rules on deep sea conservation
As a treaty to protect the High Seas entered into force this month with backing from more than 80 countries, major fishing nations China, Japan and Brazil secured a last-minute seat at the table to negotiate the procedural rules, funding and other key issues ahead of the treaty’s first COP.
The Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction (BBNJ) pact – known as the High Seas Treaty – was agreed in 2023. It is seen as key to achieving a global goal to protect at least 30% of the planet’s ecosystems by 2030, as it lays the legal foundation for creating international marine protected areas (MPAs) in the deep ocean. The high seas encompass two-thirds of the world’s ocean.
Last September, the treaty reached the key threshold of 60 national ratifications needed for it to enter into force – a number that has kept growing and currently stands at 83. In total, 145 countries have signed the pact, which indicates their intention to ratify it. The treaty formally took effect on January 17.
“In a world of accelerating crises – climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution – the agreement fills a critical governance gap to secure a resilient and productive ocean for all,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a statement.
Julio Cordano, Chile’s director of environment, climate change and oceans, said the treaty is “one of the most important victories of our time”. He added that the Nazca and Salas y Gómez ridge – off the coast of South America in the Pacific – could be one of the first intact biodiversity hotspots to gain protection.
Scientists have warned the ocean is losing its capacity to act as a carbon sink, as emissions and global temperatures rise. Currently, the ocean traps around 90% of the excess planetary heat building up from global warming. Marine protected areas could become a tool to restore “blue carbon sinks”, by boosting carbon absorption in the seafloor and protecting carbon-trapping organisms such as microalgae.
Last-minute ratifications
Countries that have ratified the BBNJ will now be bound by some of its rules, including a key provision requiring countries to carry out environmental impact assessments (EIA) for activities that could have an impact on the deep ocean’s biodiversity, such as fisheries.
Activities that affect the ocean floor, such as deep-sea mining, will still fall under the jurisdiction of the International Seabed Authority (ISA).
Nations are still negotiating the rules of the BBNJ’s other provisions, including creating new MPAs and sharing genetic resources from biodiversity in the deep ocean. They will meet in one last negotiating session in late March, ahead of the treaty’s first COP (conference of the parties) set to take place in late 2026 or early 2027.
China and Japan – which are major fishing nations that operate in deep waters – ratified the BBNJ in December 2025, just as the treaty was about to enter into force. Other top fishing nations on the high seas like South Korea and Spain had already ratified the BBNJ last year.
Power play: Can a defensive Europe stick with decarbonisation in Davos?
Tom Pickerell, ocean programme director at the World Resources Institute (WRI), said that while the last-minute ratifications from China, Japan and Brazil were not required for the treaty’s entry into force, they were about high-seas players ensuring they have a “seat at the table”.
“As major fishing nations and geopolitical powers, these countries recognise that upcoming BBNJ COP negotiations will shape rules affecting critical commercial sectors – from shipping and fisheries to biotechnology – and influence how governments engage with the treaty going forward,” Pickerell told Climate Home News.
Some major Western countries – including the US, Canada, Germany and the UK – have yet to ratify the treaty and unless they do, they will be left out of drafting its procedural rules. A group of 18 environmental groups urged the UK government to ratify it quickly, saying it would be a “failure of leadership” to miss the BBNJ’s first COP.
Finalising the rules
Countries will meet from March 23 to April 2 for the treaty’s last “preparatory commission” (PrepCom) session in New York, which is set to draft a proposal for the treaty’s procedural rules, among them on funding processes and where the secretariat will be hosted – with current offers coming from China in the city of Xiamen, Chile’s Valparaiso and Brussels in Belgium.
Janine Felson, a diplomat from Belize and co-chair of the “PrepCom”, told journalists in an online briefing “we’re now at a critical stage” because, with the treaty having entered into force, the preparatory commission is “pretty much a definitive moment for the agreement”.
Felson said countries will meet to “tidy up those rules that are necessary for the conference of the parties to convene” and for states to begin implementation. The first COP will adopt the rules of engagement.
She noted there are “some contentious issues” on whether the BBNJ should follow the structure of other international treaties such as the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), as well as differing opinions on how prescriptive its procedures should be.
“While there is this tension on how far can we be held to precedent, there is also recognition that this BBNJ agreement has quite a bit to contribute in enhancing global ocean governance,” she added.
The post Big fishing nations secure last-minute seat to write rules on deep sea conservation appeared first on Climate Home News.
Big fishing nations secure last-minute seat to write rules on deep sea conservation
Climate Change
Climate at Davos: Energy security in the geopolitical driving seat
The annual World Economic Forum got underway on Tuesday in the Swiss ski resort of Davos, providing a snowy stage for government and business leaders to opine on international affairs. With attention focused on the latest crisis – a potential US-European trade war over Greenland – climate change has slid down the agenda.
Despite this, a number of panels are addressing issues like electric vehicles, energy security and climate science. Keep up with top takeaways from those discussions and other climate news from Davos in our bulletin, which we’ll update throughout the day.
From oil to electrons – energy security enters a new era
Energy crises spurred by geopolitical tensions are nothing new – remember the 1970s oil shock spurred by the embargo Arab producers slapped on countries that had supported Israel during the Yom Kippur War, leading to rocketing inflation and huge economic pain.
But, a Davos panel on energy security heard, the situation has since changed. Oil now accounts for less than 30% of the world’s energy supply, down from more than 50% in 1973. This shift, combined with a supply glut, means oil is taking more of a back seat, according to International Energy Agency boss Fatih Birol.
Instead, in an “age of electricity” driven by transport and technology, energy diplomacy is more focused on key elements of that supply chain, in the form of critical minerals, natural gas and the security buffer renewables can provide. That requires new thinking, Birol added.
“Energy and geopolitics were always interwoven but I have never ever seen that the energy security risks are so multiplied,” he said. “Energy security, in my view, should be elevated to the level of national security today.”
In this context, he noted how many countries are now seeking to generate their own energy as far as possible, including from nuclear and renewables, and when doing energy deals, they are considering not only costs but also whether they can rely on partners in the long-term.
In the case of Europe – which saw energy prices jump after sanctions on Russian gas imports in the wake of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine – energy security rooted in homegrown supply is a top priority, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in Davos on Tuesday.
Outlining the bloc’s “affordable energy action plan” in a keynote speech at the World Economic Forum, she emphasised that Europe is “massively investing in our energy security and independence” with interconnectors and grids based on domestically produced sources of power.
The EU, she said, is trying to promote nuclear and renewables as much as possible “to bring down prices and cut dependencies; to put an end to price volatility, manipulation and supply shocks,” calling for a faster transition to clean energy.
“Because homegrown, reliable, resilient and cheaper energy will drive our economic growth and deliver for Europeans and secure our independence,” she added.
Comment – Power play: Can a defensive Europe stick with decarbonisation in Davos?
AES boss calls for “more technical talk” on supply chains
Earlier, the energy security panel tackled the risks related to supply chains for clean energy and electrification, which are being partly fuelled by rising demand from data centres and electric vehicles.
The minerals and metals that are required for batteries, cables and other components are largely under the control of China, which has invested massively in extracting and processing those materials both at home and overseas. Efforts to boost energy security by breaking dependence on China will continue shaping diplomacy now and in the future, the experts noted.
Copper – a key raw material for the energy transition – is set for a 70% increase in demand over the next 25 years, said Mike Henry, CEO of mining giant BHP, with remaining deposits now harder to exploit. Prices are on an upward trend, and this offers opportunities for Latin America, a region rich in the metal, he added.
At ‘Davos of mining’, Saudi Arabia shapes new narrative on minerals
Andrés Gluski, CEO of AES – which describes itself as “the largest US-based global power company”, generating and selling all kinds of energy to companies – said there is a lack of discussion about supply chains compared with ideological positioning on energy sources.
Instead he called for “more technical talk” about boosting battery storage to smooth out electricity supply and using existing infrastructure “smarter”. While new nuclear technologies such as small modular reactors are promising, it will be at least a decade before they can be deployed effectively, he noted.
In the meantime, with electricity demand rising rapidly, the politicisation of the debate around renewables as an energy source “makes no sense whatsoever”, he added.
The post Climate at Davos: Energy security in the geopolitical driving seat appeared first on Climate Home News.
Climate at Davos: Energy security in the geopolitical driving seat
Climate Change
A Record Wildfire Season Inspires Wyoming to Prepare for an Increasingly Fiery Future
As the Cowboy State faces larger and costlier blazes, scientists warn that the flames could make many of its iconic landscapes unrecognizable within decades.
In six generations, Jake Christian’s family had never seen a fire like the one that blazed toward his ranch near Buffalo, Wyoming, late in the summer of 2024. Its flames towered a dozen feet in the air, consuming grassland at a terrifying speed and jumping a four-lane highway on its race northward.
A Record Wildfire Season Inspires Wyoming to Prepare for an Increasingly Fiery Future
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