This is the starting point for Europe’s lofty dreams of greener air travel – a collection point in Malaysia for greasy plastic bottles filled with discarded frying oil, thousands of miles from its final destination.
One Saturday morning last month in the city of Melaka, volunteers in green T-shirts rushed over as Adibah Rahim and her husband drove into the central square, eager to unpack, weigh and register her consignment of used cooking oil (UCO) – the “liquid gold” in European plans to ramp up production of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).
Rahim left the collection point 90 ringgit ($21) richer, three ringgit per litre of oil – a welcome boost to her family’s household budget.
“We usually collect UCO from around 200 members of the public,” said Michael Andrew, sales manager for Evergreen Oil & Feed, the company running the Melaka collection with the local council and a supplier to leading European SAF producers including Spain’s Repsol, UK-based Shell and Finland’s Neste.
When made from waste such as UCO, rather than agricultural commodities like soy or palm oil, backers say SAF can slash planet-heating emissions by up to 80% over kerosene jet fuel, without taking up land that would otherwise be used for food crops, or fuelling forest destruction.
But behind SAF’s climate-friendly facade, a months-long investigation by Climate Home News and its partner The Straits Times has uncovered an opaque global supply chain that exposes jet fuel providers and their aviation clients to significant fraud risks, raising doubts about the climate benefits of the sector’s main green hope for the years ahead.
As SAF producers scramble for limited raw materials to meet new blending quotas in Europe and growing demand elsewhere, barely used and virgin palm oil is being passed off as UCO to traders that supply fuel companies, experts and industry operators told us. Palm oil that is not considered waste is not permitted under European Union rules for SAF because of its links to deforestation.
Our reporting focused on the UCO trade between Malaysia, the world’s second-biggest palm oil producer, and Spain, the EU’s largest aviation market and home to one of its SAF pioneers – oil-and-gas giant Repsol.
Fried in Spain?
Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January, Repsol CEO Josu Jon Imaz held up his company’s new 250-million-euro ($285 million) plant for renewable fuels, including SAF, near the historic Spanish port town of Cartagena as an example of how Europe can pursue a fair, green transition. Nearly half of the plant’s cost was financed by the EU’s lending arm, the European Investment Bank.
Repsol, which aims to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, started large-scale production of biodiesel and jet fuel – with its SAF mainly made from UCO – at the plant early last year.
Contrasting this with electric vehicles, many of them imported from China, Imaz said the raw material for Repsol’s renewable fuels “comes from Spanish farms and from the Spanish rural economy”.
In a promotional video for those fuels, Spanish celebrity chef Susi Díaz is seen dispensing advice to young cooks in the kitchen of her La Finca restaurant. Olive oil is then poured out of a pan into steel jugs as a voiceover explains how the waste cooking residue will be sent to the Repsol biofuels refinery.
Spain’s restaurants, however, are not the main source of Repsol’s UCO.
In 2024, more than 126,000 tonnes of UCO from Asia – enough to fill 50 Olympic-sized swimming pools – arrived in the Spanish region of Murcia, where Repsol’s flagship biofuels plant is located, according to trade data published by Spain’s tax agency.
Nearly two-thirds came from Malaysia, whose UCO exports to the region saw a 10-fold rise in the same year the energy heavyweight fired up its Cartagena SAF refinery.
The figures do not specify who provided or bought the raw material. But Climate Home obtained a list of shipments of UCO certified for the European market that were sourced from Malaysia by Repsol’s trading unit in Singapore, based on analysis of customs records provided by Data Desk, an investigative consultancy.
Repsol told Climate Home it “complements with imports when necessary” and receives raw material shipments from more than 20 countries. It declined to provide more details about its imports for “competitive reasons”.
The company is promoting the recycling of UCO from Spanish households – of which it says only 5% is currently collected – at its fuel stations across the country. But according to the trade data, Repsol purchased at least 53,000 tonnes of UCO from five Malaysian companies, including Evergreen Oil & Feed, in 2024.
No incidents involving fraudulent UCO were detected in Repsol’s supply chain, with its imports meeting EU rules on green certification. But our investigation found the company’s heavy reliance on Malaysian supplies exposes it to fraud risks that raise wider questions about global assertions over the sustainability of SAF.
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Factbox: How we tracked Repsol’s UCO supply chain
Climate Home set out to find out what sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) are made of and how sustainable they really are. We focused on the supply chain of Repsol as the leading fuel supplier in the EU’s largest aviation market and a prominent advocate of SAF as a solution to decarbonising the sector.
Repsol does not publicly disclose detailed information on where the raw materials used in its SAF production are sourced from. A company representative told us that Repsol operates in “a global market, and for competitive reasons, we do not specify the origins or percentages of the raw materials”.
We analysed the summary audit report for the sustainability certificate issued for Repsol’s flagship SAF refinery in Cartagena. The document from International Sustainability and Carbon Certification (ISCC) lists the raw materials used at the plant, but provides only limited information on the origin of each specific feedstock.
We submitted a freedom of information request to the European Commission asking for a detailed list of shipments to Spain of used cooking oil (UCO), which we knew was Repsol’s main feedstock. In response, the Commission sent a highly redacted document obscuring the names of suppliers and recipients. We asked the Commission to review the decision, but after a nine-month wait, its original response was largely upheld.
Spanish authorities had asked for the names to be redacted, arguing that their disclosure would “infringe the legitimate interests” of those concerned, the Commission said.
We then analysed foreign trade records published by Spain’s tax authority. While the data did not include names of individual companies, it pointed to a spike in imports of UCO destined for the Murcia region – where Repsol’s SAF plant is located – from Malaysia and China in 2024.
Working with Data Desk – an investigative consultancy – we obtained a list of Malaysian companies that supplied UCO to Repsol’s trading unit in Singapore. This unit has said publicly that it is “deeply involved” in the supply chain for raw materials – mainly UCO – from Asia for renewable fuels, including SAF.
Having located Repsol’s suppliers, we then sent a reporter to attend a UCO collection event organised by the largest of these, Evergreen Oil & Feed, in the city of Melaka, where its owner confirmed it sells UCO to the Spanish energy giant.
Asked what steps it takes to fight fraud, Repsol said it operates a rigorous supplier monitoring system to ensure the sustainability and integrity of its SAF production. A “very strong” compliance process means dubious raw materials and suppliers suspected of misconduct are quickly weeded out, it added.
“Repsol firmly rejects any fraud that distorts competitiveness in the sector and supports all initiatives by relevant authorities to combat it,” the company said in emailed comments.
Shrinking air travel’s carbon footprint
Europe’s green aviation fuel refineries are boosting output because of new requirements by the EU and the UK for planes to use more SAF in the coming decades. From the start of this year, fuel supplied to airports across Europe needs to contain at least 2% of SAF, with targets rising gradually over the next 15 years, putting huge strain on tight global supplies.
SAF is crucial for shrinking aviation’s carbon footprint, according to industry body the International Air Transport Association (IATA), and is expected to account for 65% of emissions reductions by 2050, when the sector has committed to reaching net zero.
In 2023, emissions from international plane travel accounted for 2.5% of the world’s energy-related carbon emissions. As air travel increases, and other sectors are more easily able to decarbonise, that share is set to grow.
Repsol’s Imaz told financial analysts early last year that emissions-cutting alternatives to SAF – such as restricting short-haul flights – would represent “a drop in the ocean”.
But surging demand for SAF’s feedstock of choice, UCO, and a global certification system based on self-declaration at the start of the supply chain are encouraging fraud that undermines the new fuel’s green credentials.
‘Ridiculous’ collection numbers
This investigation found that by the time Asia-based traders ship UCO supplies overseas to refineries for processing into SAF, guaranteeing their environmental integrity is virtually impossible – despite the certification system on which fuel companies and airlines rely.
A source at a leading Malaysian UCO supplier to companies including Repsol told The Straits Times that some UCO collectors and restaurants are committing fraud by providing oil that does not qualify as used, although it is difficult to prove.
In Malaysia, which is among the world’s leading suppliers of both UCO and virgin palm oil, government-subsidised cooking oil is cheaper than UCO – providing a clear incentive for fraud.
In a 2024 report, Brussels-based environmental group Transport & Environment (T&E) cited figures showing that Malaysia already exports about three times as much UCO as it is estimated to collect domestically and import, raising concern about where that oil is coming from – and what it consists of.
The analysis by consultancy Stratas Advisors, used as a basis for the report, says the “substantial deficit” indicates the “risks of fraud and palm oil potentially compensating for the shortfall”.
In 2023, 458,000 tonnes of UCO originating in Malaysia were registered with International Sustainability and Carbon Certification (ISCC), the leading certification scheme recognised by the European Commission to demonstrate compliance with its biofuels sustainability criteria.
In absolute terms, that puts Malaysia second only to China. But if all that UCO were collected from its population, it would have had by far the highest volumes per person worldwide: 15.2 litres for each Malaysian inhabitant, compared with 0.9 litres per capita in neighbouring Indonesia and 3.8 litres in Spain.
Cian Delaney, campaigns coordinator at T&E, said that figure is “ridiculous”, adding that for it to be feasible, Malaysia would need to be “a world leading collection and refining system – which it isn’t”.
Exactly what it says on the bottle?
The waste ingredients from which SAF is made change hands multiple times in a largely opaque system. To verify their sustainability, European regulators rely on checks by private auditors and agencies that issue green certificates based on their findings.
But there is a blind spot: the restaurants, street stalls, households and factories from which the UCO is pooled self-declare the origin and authenticity of their contributions. Aside from ad-hoc spot checks and sampling, there is no way of knowing that all of these providers are telling the truth.
“The opportunity, or incidents, of fraud is very high,” said Vasu R Vasuthewan, the former Malaysia head for the ISCC.
Malaysian authorities recently uncovered criminal syndicates that had pocketed thousands of dollars a day by getting hold of large amounts of subsidised cooking oil, mixing it in with UCO, and then selling it on to industrial UCO traders.
Industry sources told Climate Home and The Straits Times that many households and restaurants are motivated to replace cooking oil after a single use – contrary to standard practice – and then sell it on as UCO. Cooking oil is considered waste when it is no longer fit for frying – generally after being used between three and five times.
“Restaurant compliance [with sustainability standards] may be very low,” said Vasuthewan, who now runs his own UCO import and export business. “Many will fake their declaration, hoping they won’t get caught.”
Malaysia’s Deputy Minister of Plantation and Commodities Chan Foong Hin, who has acknowledged that fraud is an issue in the UCO sector, said authorities are “actively monitoring the industry to prevent fraudulent activities” and strengthening enforcement mechanisms.
“To maintain supply chain integrity, various measures are in place, including traceability systems, certification requirements, and stringent export documentation,” he told The Straits Times.
Delaney of T&E said it is difficult for auditors to physically check the origin of the oil, since hundreds of restaurants can supply the same collection point, making it a “notable blind spot”.
Spot checks, patchy audits
In theory, there is a system in place to keep fraudulent stocks out of the supply chain. Buyers and regulators in Europe rely on audit companies to trace the raw materials used in SAF and prove their green credentials.
Those audits are verified by authorised certification systems like ISCC – which is led by the biofuels industry and, according to one source, enjoys “a kind of monopoly” in the sector. It then issues sustainability certificates to commodities traders and fuel suppliers.
ISCC says its certification process supports “sustainable, fully traceable, deforestation-free and climate-friendly supply chains”.
Yet while auditors conduct random field checks in some cases, that happens less often in countries outside the EU, industry experts say.
According to James Cogan, compliance and markets lead at Irish biofuel firm Clonbio, it is far easier for fraud to occur outside the EU where “it’s much less visible to us”.
An analysis by T&E in China, for example, showed that sampling of points of origin happened in less than 10% of the ISCC-approved audits, whereas in the EU it was about 30%.
Adam Kirby, ISCC’s senior sustainability manager, told Climate Home that auditors monitor volumes coming in and out of collection points for any suspicious behaviour, in addition to carrying out spot checks.
He added that the ISCC follows the requirements established by regulators like the European Commission.
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Factbox: How ISCC verification works
Throughout the complex SAF supply chain, the ISCC requires operators to pass certified information on the origin of the raw materials and their carbon savings from one operator to another.
Traders typically receive UCO from individuals and restaurants at collection points or storage facilities audited under the scheme. But those bringing in the oil are mostly not vetted directly. In the majority of cases, they are simply required to fill out a self-declaration form stating that their UCO meets the definition of waste, meaning that it is not just regular palm oil, and is compliant with the ISCC’s sustainability criteria.
UCO collectors are required to keep all these forms in a database available for inspection by third-party auditors who check that the same amount of UCO coming into a facility is then going out.
If everything stacks up, the ISCC issues a “proof of sustainability” certificate which fuel producers like Repsol rely on to confidently buy the raw material in compliance with EU and/or international regulations.
Airlines are given access to these certificates as evidence they are buying SAF that meets sustainability requirements
In 2024, ISCC also conducted 79 special “integrity assessments” – around two-thirds targeting Asia-based suppliers – which independently monitored the work of auditors. In a third of cases, it found violations of its certification requirements, including an inability to demonstrate the traceability of products, leading to the withdrawal of 11 certificates.
From frying pan to frequent flier
Under the current system, the entire SAF supply chain relies on a long paper trail rooted in those self-declarations and sporadic inspections at the points where UCO is collected.
In Malaysia, Evergreen’s owner CK Lau told The Straits Times the company follows the “proper processes” in its collection based on the requirements established by the ISCC. He added that the documentation is “critical” as, otherwise, the company would not be able to export its UCO.
Repsol, for its part, said it requires “suppliers to be certified under European Commission-recognised voluntary regimes”.
In turn, airline companies that buy from Repsol such as International Airlines Group (IAG) – the parent company of British Airways, Iberia, Vueling, Aer Lingus and LEVEL – rely on documentation they get from it and other jet fuel providers, to show the SAF they are paying for has green certification.
In exceptional cases, IAG told Climate Home it has sent its own staff to carry out checks on the ground, as with a Shanghai-based Chinese supplier last year. It described the outcome of that audit – which included supply, record-keeping, environmental and health and safety standards – as “positive”.
Robert Boyd, Boeing’s Asia-Pacific sustainability lead who previously worked for IATA, thinks airlines’ exacting standards will bring positive change in the SAF industry. “You’ll see a race to the top… on sustainability, and it will, in a way, be self-regulated,” he added.
SAF certification faces EU scrutiny
In the meantime, following a string of fraud allegations about the authenticity of UCO-derived biofuels imported from China, the EU has been trying to ascertain whether the certification system governments and businesses rely on is fit for purpose.
EU authorities have been in talks to strengthen that system, leading to speculation that the ISCC could be suspended for failing to catch cases of biodiesel fraud. The ISCC denied in a statement that regulators had considered halting automatic EU-wide acceptance of its certificates, adding that its relationship with the European Commission remained constructive.
“There’s always bad actors, there’s always bad people, and there’s only a certain amount of policing that can be done in any industry,” said Kirby. “We at ISCC have done, I think, an incredible job.”
A European Commission spokeswoman said the bloc’s executive arm was “closely monitoring” the SAF market “to detect and prevent fraud, which risks undermining the EU’s ambition to effectively decarbonise air transport”.
Authorities in the US and Singapore, which wants to position itself as a regional SAF hub, have also voiced concern about fraud in the SAF supply chain.
“We are aware of concerns raised by various stakeholders, including the EU and the US, regarding fraudulent practices in the SAF supply chain. We share the same concerns as these pose risks to market confidence, fair trading and development of a nascent SAF market,” said Daniel Ng, chief sustainability officer at the Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore (CAAS).
He said the authority was working with the International Civil Aviation Organization’s Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection to develop “harmonised standards for feedstock verification to prevent further fraudulent practices”.
Demand for UCO sizzles
Whatever action regulators take to keep SAF fraud-free, leading European refiners such as Repsol are pushing for a level global playing field as well as more public funding to bring down costs and help develop the nascent sector on the continent.
IATA warned earlier this month that the European mandates had caused the SAF price paid by airlines to double because of hefty compliance fees being charged by producers.
Repsol’s aviation head Carlos Suárez Cubillo warned that fuel producers in parts of the world with laxer rules could produce SAF “with less regulation and less control of the feedstock… and here in Europe that could de-incentivise the production, the construction of new facilities”.
In Brazil, for example, an emerging SAF industry is gearing up to use crop-based feedstocks that are commonly linked to deforestation – and are therefore banned in Europe – such as soy and palm oil, as well as sugarcane-based ethanol, which has been linked to labour abuses and modern slavery.
An investigation by Climate Home’s partner in Brazil, InfoAmazonia, found that the palm oil producer behind a planned biorefinery in the Amazon region – billed as Brazil’s first SAF project – is growing the crop on land areas subject to sanctions by the national environment agency over illegal deforestation, and is struggling financially after rights abuse allegations.
Brazilian firm behind SAF plan found growing oil palm on deforested Amazon land
IATA hopes its efforts to put in place a global registry for SAF, launched in April as a voluntary initiative, will boost transparency around feedstocks and their greenhouse gas savings – and enable airlines to have some level of visibility and comparability between countries, fuel providers and airports.
SAF producers and airlines are also looking to other waste-based materials to meet rising mandates – especially as more advanced fuels made from green hydrogen and carbon dioxide, known as e-SAF, are still being developed and tested.
Air travel’s ‘holy grail’: Jet fuel made from CO2 and water prepares for take-off
Repsol, for example, recently closed a deal with US vegetable oils giant Bunge to source camelina and safflower – non-food crops that can grow on poor land – to produce hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) for biodiesel and SAF.
In January, it also announced it would invest more than 800 million euros ($906 million) in Europe’s first plant in the Catalan city of Tarragona to produce “renewable” methanol from organic urban waste that now ends up in landfill, for use in maritime, road and aviation transport from 2029.
But in the meantime, Europe’s overwhelming reliance on UCO means it will continue to import supplies from Asia – despite the concerns over fraud, said Sophie Byron, global head of biofuels pricing at S&P Global Commodity Insights.
“That trade flow is not going away anytime soon,” she said.
‘Token effort’ on aviation emissions?
At Repsol’s vast refinery complex near Cartagena, the colourful pipes and metal cylinders of the flagship SAF unit are dwarfed by the site’s traditional, fossil fuel-refining infrastructure.
Repsol’s plants processed 43.3 million tonnes of crude oil last year, according to its annual report. In contrast, its renewable fuels production capacity stands at 1.25 million tonnes per year – of which the Cartagena plant accounts for 250,000 tonnes, including SAF.
It is a token effort towards tackling rising aviation emissions, said Pedro Luengo of Spanish environmental network Ecologistas en Acción, standing on a hillside overlooking the complex.
As Spain’s airports prepare for another record-breaking summer holiday influx this year, Luengo warned that the hype around SAF could prove counter-productive in the fight against climate change by justifying yet more air travel.
“Instead of gradually substituting fossil fuels with other [green] sources and consuming less, what we are doing is expanding the opportunities because we have more fuels available to use,” he said. “That is a contradiction.”
This investigation was developed with the support of Journalismfund Europe.
The Straits Times in Singapore will publish a version of this story in the coming days.
The post Is the world’s big idea for greener air travel a flight of fancy? appeared first on Climate Home News.
Is the world’s big idea for greener air travel a flight of fancy?
Climate Change
DeBriefed 17 April 2026: Fossil-fuel power slumps | ‘Super’ El Niño warning | Afghanistan’s climate struggle
Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
Oil prices rebound
OIL UP AGAIN: Oil prices surged by more than 7% and back above $100 a barrel on Monday after US-Iran peace talks faltered and US president Donald Trump ordered the blockading of Iranian ports, reported BBC News. The jump came after prices fell last week in the wake of the announcement of a conditional two-week ceasefire, it said.
RESCUE PLANS: European countries unveiled plans to protect citizens and businesses from rising energy prices. Ireland announced a support package worth €505m, reported BBC News, while Germany agreed on measures worth €1.6bn, said Bloomberg. Meanwhile, Reuters reported on a draft EU proposal due to be unveiled next week that would see the bloc reduce electricity prices and roll out clean energy more quickly in response to the crisis.
UNSOLICITED ADVICE: Trump renewed his criticism of UK energy policy and called on the government to “drill, baby drill”, reported the Independent. Via social media, the president said: “Europe is desperate for energy, and yet the United Kingdom refuses to open North Sea oil, one of the greatest fields in the world. Tragic!!!” (See Carbon Brief’s recent factcheck of various false claims about the North Sea.)
Around the world
- C-WORD: Faced with pressure from the US, countries attending spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank were urged to “not mention the climate”, reported the Guardian. It added that plans to agree a new “climate change action plan” for the World Bank “may be shelved, along with substantive discussion of the climate crisis”.
- NEW DIRECTION: Péter Magyar’s landslide victory over Victor Orbán in Hungary’s elections “presents new opportunities for the country to reduce emissions and invest in clean energy”, reported Time. Carbon Brief explored what it means for European climate action.
- ‘FURNACE’ SUMMER: There was widespread coverage – including in the Boston Globe, ABC News, CNN, Euro Weekly News, Guardian and New Scientist – of warnings from meteorologists of the development of a “super” El Niño phenomenon that could ramp up temperatures and drive extreme weather.
- ANTALYA COP: The Turkish government unveiled the dates and venues for the “leaders’ summit” segment of November’s COP31 conference, according to Climate Home News.
- PACIFIC PRE-COP: Meanwhile, the Guardian reported that Tuvalu will host a special meeting of world leaders before the climate summit in Antalya.
€10bn a year
The amount of state support that French prime minister Sébastien Lecornu has pledged for electrification through to 2030 in a bid to reduce the country’s dependence on fossil fuels. In a speech late on Friday 10 April, Lecornu noted the figure amounted to a “doubling” of existing support.
Latest climate research
- Over a four-month period of 2023, more than 70% of editorials discussing net-zero in four right-leaning UK newspapers included “at least one misleading statement” | Climate Policy
- Air pollution from global transport currently has a net cooling effect that offsets 80% of the warming impact of the sector’s CO2 emissions | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
- The incorporation of “observational constraints” into climate-model projections suggests that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation could weaken by 50% by 2100 in a medium-emissions scenario | Science Advances
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
Analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) found that global electricity generation from fossil fuels fell in the first month of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Across all countries with real-time electricity data outside of China, coal-fired power generation fell 3.5% and gas-fired power generation fell 4.0%, according to CREA. This was offset by a rise in solar power and wind generation, which increased by 14% and 8%, respectively. Hydropower generation also saw a small increase, the analysis showed, but this was “more than offset” by a drop in nuclear power generation.
Spotlight
How climate change affects Afghan lives
This week, Carbon Brief reports on the impact of climate change in Afghanistan, following deadly floods this year.
Earlier this month, heavy rains, flash floods and landslides struck large parts of Afghanistan, damaging thousands of homes, destroying crops, bridges and roads and taking nearly 100 lives.
The flooding – reported to have affected 74,000 people in 31 of 34 provinces – is the latest weather-related catastrophe to afflict the nation, whose communities have suffered the brunt of repeated flash floods, droughts and landslides in recent years.
Hameed Hakimi, non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center, told Carbon Brief the recent floods would hurt livelihoods and food security, noting reports of destroyed wheat and rice crops in the most affected eastern parts of the country. He said:
“This is common. For at least a decade now, [we have seen] these flash floodings and the damage that happens to rural life, farming, the disruption to crops…Flash flooding physically eats up the land. So, it not only damages where people live, but also people’s livelihoods, based on what they grow.”
The damage to crops will be felt acutely, he explained, given that food security in the landlocked nation is already strained by the blockage of its main transit trade artery through Pakistan and international sanctions that have frozen long-term development aid.
Speaking to Carbon Brief, Abdulhadi Achakzai, founding CEO of the Environmental Protection Trainings and Development Organization (EPTDO), an Afghan NGO, described flooding in Afghanistan as a “chronic situation”.
Achakzai, whose organisation runs projects that help urban and rural communities adapt to climate impacts, says climate change hurts the country in four key ways: extreme drought; extreme temperature; “natural hazards”, including landslides and dust storms; and, finally, flash flooding. He said:
“Climate change is a serious matter in Afghanistan. Every nation and every corner within this country is severely affected.”
Ranked 176 of 187 on the University of Notre Dame “global adaptation index”, Afghanistan is among the countries most vulnerable to climate change.
Average temperature across the country has increased from 12.2C in 1960 to 14.2C in 2024, according to the World Bank’s climate change knowledge portal. Drought is widespread, severe and persistent – harming food and water security in a nation of subsistence farmers.
Meanwhile, extreme weather events are the leading driver of internal displacement in the country. More than three-quarters of the 710,000 people who relocated within Afghanistan in 2024 did so driven by “environmental hazards”, such as drought and flood, according to a recent climate vulnerability assessment from the International Organization for Migration.
Finance struggles
Despite feeling the impacts of extreme weather, Afghanistan has been barred from UN climate negotiations and had limited access to climate finance since 2021. (The government attended COP29 in Baku as guests of the Azerbaijan hosts, but did not take part in formal negotiations.)
This is because the international community does not recognise the Taliban government, which resumed power in 2021, due to its record on human rights and its repression of women and girls in particular.
Almost all financing from key climate funds has been suspended, with the exception of a few projects where UN agencies and NGOs act simultaneously as a “requesting” and “implementation” partner.
Aid from UN climate funds fell from $5.9m annually over 2014-20 to $3.9m annually over 2021-24, according to recent analysis by the Berghof Foundation. Multilateral development banks provided a further $337m of funds badged as “climate finance” over 2021-23, it said.
By comparison, Afghanistan’s national climate plan, submitted to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2016, requested $17.4bn in climate finance over 2020-30. An updated national climate plan seen by Carbon Brief – completed in 2021 and later endorsed by the Taliban government, but not accepted by member governments of the UNFCCC – called for $20.6bn through to 2030.
Achakzai, whose organisation attends the COP climate summit each year in an observer capacity, has in the past been the sole delegate from Afghanistan to the conference.
He is calling on the UNFCCC to accept the country’s latest climate plan – and to find an “alternative solution” that would give the people of the country a voice in negotiations. He said:
“Every year we are losing hundreds, thousands of people because of climate change-related matters. Every year we are losing hundreds, thousands of hectares of crops. We are affected by [the decisions of] other countries. Why are we not part of this process?”
Watch, read, listen
BLOSSOM WATCHER: The Guardian reported on the successful search to find a researcher to continue Japan’s 1,200-year cherry blossom record.
COP OUT: Deutsche Welle spoke to experts to understand why India walked away from its bid to host COP33 in 2028.
‘BOMBS AND PORN’: The New Republic looked at who is set to benefit from the rapid build-out of energy-intensive AI datacentres.
Coming up
- 20-24 April: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) working group one report author meeting, Santiago, Chile
- 22 April: Earth day
- 22 April: Launch of third edition of the Lancet Countdown’s Europe report
- 24-29 April: First conference on transitioning away from fossil fuels, Santa Marta, Colombia
Pick of the jobs
- International Organization for Migration, senior thematic associate (climate action) | Salary: UN G-6 salary grade | Location: Dakar, Senegal
- Climate Action Network UK, several board member roles | Salary: Unknown. Location: Unknown
- UK Department for Energy, Food and Rural Affairs, G7 science lead | Salary: £56,375. Location: Bristol, London, Newcastle-upon-Tyne or York, UK
- Save the Children UK, senior climate change advisor | Salary: £62,000-£65,000. Location: London
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
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The post DeBriefed 17 April 2026: Fossil-fuel power slumps | ‘Super’ El Niño warning | Afghanistan’s climate struggle appeared first on Carbon Brief.
The right-wing populist Hungarian government led by Viktor Orbán has suffered a landslide electoral defeat to the centre-right Tisza party, led by Péter Magyar.
This brings to an end 16 years of rule by Orbán and his Fidesz party, a move welcomed by many around the world who were concerned about Hungary’s “slide toward authoritarianism”.
Hungary has played a disproportionate role in EU climate and energy policy in recent years, by repeatedly vetoing climate action and by delaying the phaseout of Russian fossil-fuel imports.
Magyar did not prioritise climate and energy issues in his electoral campaign, but he has championed cooperation with the EU and proposed a 2035 deadline for “eliminating Russian energy dependence”.
Hungarian experts tell Carbon Brief that, while the new government is yet to be formed, it is likely that Magyar will move quickly to secure EU funds for “green” measures.
One expert notes that “this is not a progressive pivot”, with Hungary unlikely to emerge as a climate leader in the EU, even if it is less disruptive to the bloc’s wider climate strategy.
- What was Orbán’s approach to climate action?
- What will be the new Hungarian government’s climate and energy policies?
- How will the new government approach EU climate policy?
- What has the new leadership said about Russian fossil fuels?
What was Orbán’s approach to climate action?
Hungary has had a mixed record on climate change under then prime minister Orbán, supporting some relevant actions while opposing others – particularly those taken at an EU level. This broadly reflects his Fidesz party’s populist and Eurosceptic leanings.
Orbán has described the EU’s climate goals as a “utopian fantasy” that would “destroy the middle class”. He has also accused “western elites” of wanting people to “live in fear” of climate change.
Yet, despite being embraced by climate sceptics elsewhere and supporting climate-sceptic lobbyists, Orbán’s government has not overtly adopted such sceptical rhetoric.
In fact, reflecting broad Hungarian support for climate action, Orbán has framed his nation as a “climate champion” – albeit one taking a “pragmatic” approach. This was captured in his speech at the COP29 summit in 2024, when he said:
“We must continue advancing the green transition, while also maintaining our use of natural gas, oil and nuclear energy…Our climate policy should be guided by careful consideration and common sense, not by ideology, alarmism or panic.”
Domestically, Orbán’s government has pursued various climate goals, including a 2050 net-zero target, phasing out coal power by 2029 and supporting the expansion of solar power.
What will be the new Hungarian government’s climate and energy policies?
Climate change was not a major issue in the April election and Magyar, the incoming prime minister, hardly mentioned it in his campaign.
However, the 243-page manifesto released by his Tisza party includes many climate-related proposals, such as home insulation, railway electrification and tackling drought.
The document says some of these measures – notably “energy modernisation and efficiency programmes” – will be funded with billions of euros in EU funds that have been frozen under Orbán. (See: How will the new government approach EU climate policy?)
One notable pledge is to “double the share of renewable energy in domestic energy supply” by 2040. As the chart below shows, Hungary already generates three-quarters of its electricity from clean sources – predominantly Paks, its single nuclear power plant.
Nearly a third of Hungary’s electricity comes from solar, which has benefited from supportive government schemes in recent years. In contrast, for years, the Orbán government blocked the construction of wind turbines, meaning there is virtually no wind power in Hungary.
The Tisza manifesto recognises this imbalance, stating that “we will abolish the unnecessary restrictions preventing the installation of new wind turbines”, while also supporting geothermal energy.
Energy prices are a key political issue in Hungary, as they are in many nations around the world. Orbán’s “utility cost reduction” has been a flagship policy for many years, capping household prices using large state subsidies.
During the election, Orbán accused his opponent of planning to get rid of the energy price cap. In fact, the Tizsa manifesto says the new government will “maintain and expand” the scheme and add new VAT cuts on firewood.
Despite having few batteries and electric vehicles (EVs) domestically, Hungary has emerged in recent years as a major battery manufacturer, driven by Chinese and South Korean investment. However, this boom has sparked environmental and social concerns.
Zsolt Lengyel, founder and chair of the Institute for European Energy and Climate Policy (IEECP), tells Carbon Brief:
“Orbán’s battery and EV strategy – in theory, a flagship of the transition – has backfired politically…So Tisza inherits a paradox: it needs to accelerate the transition, but does so in an environment where parts of that transition have already lost public legitimacy.”
With much still unknown about Magyar’s attitude to climate and energy policy, some Hungarian experts that Carbon Brief spoke to cautioned against “speculation” and “wishful thinking” when assessing his climate credentials.
How will the new government approach EU climate policy?
There is cautious optimism among EU officials and leaders that a Hungarian government led by Magyar will be more cooperative on EU-led initiatives.
Under Orbán, Hungary has been a vocal and persistent opponent of EU climate policies.
Since 2011, 21 of all the 48 vetoes on joint EU actions have been used by Hungary. These include blocking efforts to sanction Russia following the country’s invasion of Ukraine. (See: What has the new leadership said about Russian fossil fuels?)
Among other issues, Hungary has vetoed or obstructed progress on the EU’s 2050 net-zero target, the “fit for 55” legislative package to help meet that goal and the 2035 ban on petrol and diesel cars.
Generally, this opposition did not totally block these policies, as most did not require unanimous agreement among EU member states. However, it did tend to slow down or complicate the process. Hungary was also not acting alone – it was often joined by fellow eastern and central European states, claiming the policies would have high costs.
Nevertheless, the Orbán government’s aversion to the EU has taken it further than other states. In recent months, for example, Hungary has launched a legal case against the EU over its phaseout plan for Russian oil and gas imports.
In this context, Lengyel tells Carbon Brief:
“Orbán’s exit removes Hungary’s most damaging feature in EU climate politics: the ideological reflex to oppose ‘anything Brussels does’.”
However, just because Magyar is less hostile to the EU does not mean his government will be a climate leader.
Magyar’s centre-right Tisza party is aligned with the European People’s Party (EPP) grouping in the European parliament, which has been instrumental in weakening EU climate goals in recent months. Given this, Lengyel tells Carbon Brief.
“Let’s be clear: this is not a progressive pivot. Tisza sits close to the EPP mainstream and is unlikely to challenge it. If anything, it will follow it, including on any watering down of green-deal elements.”
Crucially, Hungary is entitled to billions of euros of EU funds that have been blocked due to breaches of conditions regarding the rule of law and human rights under Orbán.
These include €9.5bn for Hungary’s recovery and resilience plan, the EU’s post-Covid recovery fund, much of which is earmarked for the “green transition”.
This finance needs to be disbursed before the end of August – and both Magyar and the EU have been clear that unlocking the funds is a priority.
Jozsef Feiler, director of the south-east Europe and Hungary programme at the European Climate Foundation, which funds Carbon Brief, says “full EU compliance” will be crucial for Hungary over the coming months, in order to obtain these funds. He tells Carbon Brief:
“The economic and financial stability of the new government [will depend] on obtaining the recovery and resilience facility funds and managing some kind of absorption before the 26 August hard deadline.”
Another early challenge will be the new government’s approach to the new part of the EU’s emissions trading scheme (ETS) – known as ETS2 – which will put a price on emissions from buildings, cars and other sources not covered in the original ETS.
ETS2 is already facing criticism from member states concerned about rising fuel costs. Moreover, Hungary is likely to be one of the countries that is most exposed to high fossil-fuel prices.
István Bart, a senior director in carbon pricing at the Environmental Defence Fund, tells Carbon Brief that Orbán’s government has done little to help with the implementation of ETS2, which is currently due to start in 2028. He notes that, with the question of affordability so fraught in Hungary, it is unclear how Magyar will tackle this issue.
What has the new leadership said about Russian fossil fuels?
One of the most notable policy statements made in Tisza’s manifesto is a commitment that:
“By 2035, we will eliminate Russian energy dependence and diversify our domestic energy supply.”
Despite its relatively clean electricity supply, Hungary is still heavily reliant on fossil fuels – including in its transport, heating and industrial sectors – the majority of which are imported.
Russia is Hungary’s main fossil-fuel trading partner, with the Druzhba and TurkStream pipelines supplying much of the smaller nation’s needs for oil and gas, respectively.
Among EU member states, Hungary is second only to Slovakia in terms of reliance on Russian fossil fuels. In 2024, 74% of Hungary’s gas and 48% of its oil were imported from Russia, as shown in the chart below.
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, most EU nations have taken steps to reduce their dependence on Russian fossil fuels.
The EU has implemented a series of sanctions on Russia and the European Commission launched the REPowerEU plan to “fully end dependency on Russian energy”.
Under Orbán, however, Hungary has obstructed efforts to wean the EU off Russian fossil fuels, citing energy-security concerns. It has successfully negotiated exemptions from Russian oil sanctions, allowing the country to increase its reliance on cheap Russian crude.
The REPowerEU regulation involves a ban on Russian pipeline gas by September 2027. Unlike sanctions, the EU did not need unanimity among states to pass this.
It is notable that Tisza has only committed to end reliance on Russian energy by 2035 – eight years after the EU deadline. It is unclear how Magyar’s new government will negotiate this discrepancy, especially given long-term contracts with Russian suppliers.
Hungary also relies on Russia for nuclear technology and supplies of uranium for its nuclear plant. In its manifesto, Tisza says it will explore the possibility of sourcing nuclear fuel from US or French suppliers, as well as building small modular reactors.
Orbán had already started pursuing diversified nuclear and fossil-fuel supplies by buying from the US, even as it secured exemptions from US sanctions on Russian energy imports. It is possible that Tisza may maintain this approach.
However, with the Iran war and energy crisis looming in recent months, Bart, from EDF, tells Carbon Brief:
“Before the Iran war started, you could have said: ‘Why don’t you just buy LNG [liquified natural gas]?’…Now it seems like less of an option, so, unfortunately, in the short term, [Russian gas] has to stay because we don’t really have an alternative.”
The post Q&A: What Magyar’s defeat of Orbán in Hungary means for climate and energy appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Q&A: What Magyar’s defeat of Orbán in Hungary means for climate and energy
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Q&A: What Magyar’s defeat of Orbán in Hungary means for climate and energy
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