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SolarBank Stays Steady as Trump's Clean Energy Rollbacks Loom

Disseminated on behalf of SolarBank Corporation

The U.S. House of Representatives proposes rollbacks to key clean energy programs, which raises questions across the sector. Among the targeted provisions are the residential solar tax credit and funding elements of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)—a landmark climate package that helped spark record investment in clean energy over the past two years.

The proposal suggests ending the 30% federal residential solar tax credit by the end of 2025. This is nearly 10 years sooner than expected. This policy change could greatly affect companies in the solar industry.

Understanding the Proposed Policy Change

The residential solar tax credit, or Solar Investment Tax Credit (ITC) is Section 25D of the U.S. Tax Code. It lets homeowners claim 30% of the cost of installing solar panels. This credit appears on their federal tax returns.

The credit, part of the Inflation Reduction Act, was to last until 2032. It will start to decrease gradually in 2033. The schedule is below. However, the new proposal aims to terminate this credit by December 31, 2025. 

solar tax credit sched
Source: Ecowatch

Experts warn that this sudden change might raise costs for consumers. It could also lower demand for residential solar installations and lead to job losses in the sector. Small solar installation businesses often rely on credit for competitive pricing. This makes them especially vulnerable.

The solar industry has expressed strong opposition to the proposed cuts. Many stakeholders say the tax credit has helped grow residential solar. It creates jobs and promotes energy independence.

The Solar Energy Industries Association says the residential solar market has grown 10x in the last ten years. The tax credit has played a big part in this growth.

The proposal passed the House Ways and Means Committee. However, it still has many hurdles to clear before it can become law. Some lawmakers, including Republicans from areas that benefit from clean energy investments, are worried about the possible negative effects of the cuts.

The final outcome will depend on negotiations in both the House and Senate. 

Policy Uncertainty and Its Limits

For many solar developers, these changes could signal uncertainty and disruption. For SolarBank, a developer focused on community and commercial-scale solar (as opposed to residential solar installations), the path forward remains steady. This is due to careful planning, strategic focus, and a shift in business model that favors long-term sustainability.

The company’s CEO, Dr. Richard Lu, says the company’s business model is largely shielded from this turbulence, saying:

“Over the next several years we are not expecting any major changes or challenges from the potential changes to federal solar tax incentives. Support for our community solar projects comes at a state level, and we only focus on the 22 states that have community solar policy.”

This is a key distinction. SolarBank focuses on commercial, industrial, and community solar projects. Unlike residential solar companies, it benefits from strong state mandates and incentives.

Moreover, the timeline for scaling back federal tax credits for commercial solar systems doesn’t begin until 2028 or 2029. SolarBank has already factored that into its long-term planning. Dr. Lu emphasized this, noting:

“We work with industrial and commercial large-scale solar projects, and not residential. The schedule to reduce tax incentives… has already been included in our operations to mitigate the effect.”

Resilience Through Integration

SolarBank isn’t shaken by the headlines. Instead, it is strengthening its operations. Its resilience comes from a vertically integrated model. This model covers development, construction, and long-term operations and maintenance.

This structure helps the company control costs, speed up deployment, and rely less on uncertain external factors. Dr. Lu stated:

“We have a vertically integrated system… which gives us the capability to manage our costs and simplify our process. This is really where our lean set up is competitive.”

That competitiveness is especially important in a rapidly evolving energy market. AI data centers, electric vehicles, and digital industries are driving high electricity demand.

Data center power use in the U.S. will grow twofold in 2030 due to AI. Meanwhile, traditional energy systems are having a tough time keeping up.

US data centers power use under 4 scenarios EPRI analysis
Source: Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)

SolarBank sees this mismatch as an opportunity. The company can meet rising energy needs by staying agile and keeping costs in check, that is faster than many big, slower competitors.

Shifting from Build-to-Sell to Build-to-Own

In response to both market evolution and policy unpredictability, SolarBank is also adjusting its core business strategy. Once focused on a build-to-sell model, the company is now emphasizing build-to-own projects.

The CEO noted that this shift aims to create a more stable revenue base, making SolarBank less reliant on one-off transactions and external funding sources. He said:

“This will boost our long-term recurring revenue. It makes it easier to take on new projects with less external funding.”

This change also helps the company hedge against potential federal funding shortfalls. SolarBank can continue to grow by attracting private investment and forming strategic partnerships. This will help, even with solar tax credit challenges.

A recent collaboration with Qcells, involving the use of U.S.-manufactured solar modules, is one example of how the company is preparing for multiple future scenarios. SolarBank has the following project pipeline that will bring significant growth to the company:

SolarBank projects
Source: SolarBank

A Message for Policymakers

The company is confident in its own path. However, Dr. Lu emphasized the broader value of maintaining federal support for clean energy—especially for community solar and distributed energy systems. He remarked:

“Consistent and long-term support… is not just an investment in clean energy but also in social equity and economic resilience.” 

Community solar programs are especially important for expanding access to renewable energy among low- and moderate-income households, renters, and underserved communities. Without strong policy support, these groups risk being left behind in the clean energy transition.

Dr. Lu added:

“Stable policies and incentives are crucial for planning and investment. By supporting these initiatives, policymakers can drive job creation, foster local economic development, and advance national goals for carbon reduction and climate resilience.”

What’s The Future for Solar?

SolarBank’s calm response shows its strong position, even if the headlines are unsettling. The company is ready to succeed by using state support, seeking private investment, and adjusting its business model. This approach helps it thrive despite federal uncertainty.

Still, the broader industry faces real questions. Will Congress follow through with proposed rollbacks? Can community solar continue to grow if the tax credits vanish? And what does this mean for energy equity in the U.S.?

For now, SolarBank believes that its focus on fundamentals, policy-savvy expansion, and forward-thinking leadership will carry it through.

This report contains forward-looking information. Please refer to the SolarBank press release entitled “SolarBank Announces Third Quarter Results” for details of the information, risks and assumptions.


Disclosure: Owners, members, directors, and employees of carboncredits.com have/may have stock or option positions in any of the companies mentioned: None.

Carboncredits.com receives compensation for this publication and has a business relationship with any company whose stock(s) is/are mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: This communication serves the sole purpose of adding value to the research process and is for information only. Please do your own due diligence. Every investment in securities mentioned in publications of carboncredits.com involves risks that could lead to a total loss of the invested capital.

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The post SolarBank Stays Strong as Trump’s Clean Energy Rollbacks Loom appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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Amazon Stock Rises, Meta Falls: Q3 Earnings Show Split Paths in AI and Clean Energy

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Amazon Stock Rises, Meta Falls: Q3 Earnings Show Split Paths in AI and Clean Energy

Meta Platforms and Amazon.com just announced their latest quarterly earnings. Both showed strong financial results despite a tough global economy. Both companies are investing in clean energy, carbon reduction, and sustainability. They aim to meet the rising energy demand from artificial intelligence (AI) and data centers. However, while Amazon’s stock soars after the announcement, Meta’s stock dips.

The results show a big shift in tech companies. They are connecting financial growth to climate responsibility and long-term resilience. Let’s examine how these tech giants perform financially and sustainably. 

Amazon’s Revenue and Cloud Strength Push Q3 Growth

Amazon reported $180.2 billion in revenue for the third quarter of 2025, up 13% year over year. The company’s net income surged to $21.2 billion, or $1.95 per diluted share, compared to $9.9 billion a year earlier.

The strongest gains came from Amazon Web Services (AWS), which grew 20% year over year to $33.0 billion in revenue. Amazon’s cloud division is its most profitable part. It supports thousands of companies around the globe and helps boost AI and digital tools.

Amazon income segment q3 2025
Source: Amazon

Amazon’s retail business did better than expected. Prime Day sales and rising advertising revenue helped. Advertising revenue climbed 28% to US $14.7 billion.

With its strong quarter, Amazon’s stock increased about 12% in after-hours trading. Analysts say the company’s long-term plan is key to growth. It focuses on cloud computing, renewable energy, and automation.

Amazon AMZN stock price

CEO Andy Jassy noted in a statement:
“AWS is growing at a pace we haven’t seen since 2022. We continue to see strong demand in AI and core infrastructure, and we’ve been focused on accelerating capacity.”

Meta Reports Higher Profits but Faces Market Pressure

Meta Platforms, which owns Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, reported $51.2 billion in revenue for Q3 2025. This is a 26% increase compared to last year. Net income reached $2.7 billion, or $1.05 per share.

Meta Platforms financial results q3
Source: Meta

The company noted higher ad spending, strong engagement on its apps, and early gains from its AI-driven recommendation systems. Despite these strong results, Meta’s stock dropped more than 11% after the results came out. Investors were concerned about the company’s rising costs for infrastructure and AI chips.

Meta stock price

CEO Mark Zuckerberg stated that Meta will keep “building responsibly for the long term.” He emphasized that AI systems and the metaverse will be key investment areas until 2026.

Big Tech’s Race to Power AI With Clean Energy

AI development is driving record electricity demand. Data centers already consume around 415 terawatt-hours (TWh) of power globally each year, or about 1.5% of total electricity use. By 2030, consumption could more than double to 945 TWh, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

data center power demand 2030

Both Meta and Amazon are addressing this surge by pairing AI growth with clean energy expansion.

  • Amazon is the largest corporate buyer of renewable energy in the world. It has over 550 wind and solar projects. Together, these projects generate more than 33 gigawatts (GW) of capacity as of 2025. They supply power to AWS data centers, logistics hubs, and fulfillment sites across 27 countries.
  • Meta sources 100% renewable energy for its global operations and data centers. It has added 10 GW of clean energy capacity since 2020 and continues to invest in solar and wind farms in the U.S., Spain, and Singapore.

These efforts are part of a larger trend in tech: replacing fossil fuel power with firm, clean sources such as nuclear, geothermal, and long-duration storage, to ensure 24/7 reliability.

Amazon’s Net-Zero Roadmap

Amazon aims to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2040, a decade ahead of the Paris Agreement target. To get there, it is cutting emissions across transportation, operations, and packaging.

Key steps include:

  • Deploying over 145,000 electric delivery vans by 2030.
  • Using sustainable aviation fuel for Amazon Air.
  • Reducing plastic packaging and promoting circular economy programs.
  • Investing in carbon removal projects, including reforestation and direct air capture systems.

In 2024, Amazon reduced its carbon intensity — emissions per dollar of revenue — by 16% from its 2021 baseline. The company is testing green hydrogen and battery storage. This will help stabilize renewable energy supplies for its warehouses and data centers.

Meta’s Net-Zero and Carbon Removal Efforts

Meta reached net-zero emissions for its operations (Scope 1 and 2) in 2020. Now, it’s focusing on Scope 3 emissions, which come from suppliers and user activity.

By 2030, Meta aims to reach full net-zero emissions across its value chain. It is buying more renewable energy and improving server designs for better efficiency. It is also investing in carbon removal projects, like reforestation and biochar.

The company’s circular-hardware program reuses old data-center servers. This effort recycles materials and cuts electronic waste by almost 60% since 2022. Its new data centers in Texas and Denmark will run entirely on wind and solar power, helping to balance AI’s growing energy demand.

Meta also launched a “climate science hub” across Facebook and Instagram to share verified climate information and encourage community-level sustainability actions.

Investor Takeaway: Profits Up, Pressures High, Climate Still Central

Amazon’s strong revenue and cloud success show its resilience. However, the company is dealing with rising costs from its AI expansion and logistics network. Analysts expect AWS growth to remain steady as enterprise clients expand AI workloads.

Meta’s profits were better than expected. However, the company’s high capital spending raised worries about short-term margins. Reality Labs, which works on AR/VR and metaverse products, had a $3.7 billion operating loss in Q3. However, executives noted that AI integration is boosting user engagement and ad performance.

Both companies play key roles in the AI economy and clean energy transition, even with short-term ups and downs.

Clean Energy and Tech: A Shared Future

Amazon vs Meta renewable energy capacity

Amazon and Meta are boosting their clean energy efforts. This shows a big change in the industry. As AI and data grow, having reliable low-carbon electricity is now a key advantage.

  • By 2030, Amazon’s projects might create enough renewable energy to offset 30 million metric tons of CO₂ each year. This is about the same as the emissions from 8 million cars.
  • Meta’s ongoing efficiency programs have cut data center energy use by 30% per computing task compared to 2020, even as total workloads grow.

Both companies are exploring new power sources. They are looking into small modular reactors (SMRs) and advanced geothermal systems. This aims to provide clean energy for their global networks without interruption.

For Amazon and Meta, the latest earnings reports tell a story of growth tied to responsibility. Their revenues are up, AI investment continues, and sustainability remains at the center of their long-term strategies.

Short-term market swings show investor caution. Still, both companies are building the digital and environmental infrastructure for the next decade of tech growth.

In the race to power AI with clean energy, they show that profitability and sustainability can grow together if backed by the right investments, partnerships, and long-term visions.

The post Amazon Stock Rises, Meta Falls: Q3 Earnings Show Split Paths in AI and Clean Energy appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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Apple’s Earnings and (AAPL) Stock Up, Emissions Down: How Its 2030 Vision Is Paying Off

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Apple’s Earnings and (AAPL) Stock Up, Emissions Down: How Its 2030 Vision Is Paying Off

Apple Inc. reported strong financial results for its latest quarter. It showed steady growth in its products and services, sending its stock rising to its highest level this year. At the same time, the company is expanding its clean energy and carbon reduction programs as it works toward its 2030 net-zero goal. 

Apple’s strategy focuses on balancing profit and sustainability. This approach helps define the company as one of the largest and most influential in the world.

Financial Results Show Steady Growth: Apple’s $102B Quarter

Apple’s fiscal year ending September 2025 marked another period of steady growth and strong cash generation. The company reported $416 billion in total revenue for the year, up from $394 billion in fiscal 2024.

Net revenue for the quarter reached $102.5 billion, 8% higher than the previous year’s result. It reflects solid demand for services and high-end iPhones.

Apple Q4 2025 financial results
Source: Apple

Apple’s Services division, which includes the App Store, Apple Music, iCloud, and Apple TV+, grew faster than hardware. It brought in around $28.8 billion, a 15% increase, in the fourth quarter alone. This segment now accounts for more than one-fourth of total company revenue, helping offset slower growth in device sales.

The iPhone 17 lineup stayed Apple’s top revenue source. This was thanks to strong demand in North America and increased sales in India and Southeast Asia. Meanwhile, Mac and iPad sales stayed stable, with new M4-powered models expected to lift performance in 2026.

Apple shares reached a record high this year at $277.32 on October 31 trading. That price is about 18% higher year-to-date versus the January 31 close. The jump followed strong earnings and renewed investor interest in services and clean energy plans.

Apple AAPL stock price

Analysts believe the company’s clean energy and sustainability efforts will boost investor confidence. This is important as environmental and social performance are now key metrics in global markets.

Clean Energy Investments Gain Momentum

Apple continues to invest heavily in renewable energy. Its suppliers now operate 17.8 gigawatts (GW) of clean electricity worldwide, enough to power millions of homes. These efforts helped avoid an estimated 21.8 million metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions in 2024 alone.

The tech giant has committed to powering all its global facilities, like data centers, stores, and offices, with 100% renewable energy. As of 2025, Apple reports that this target has already been met for its operations.

Apple is also encouraging suppliers to follow its lead. Over 320 suppliers from 30 countries have joined Apple’s Clean Energy Program. This represents more than 95% of the company’s direct manufacturing spending.

Apple’s Clean Energy Capacity by Year

The chart above shows Apple’s global renewable energy portfolio. This includes direct purchases like Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs), investments in solar and wind projects, and clean energy from suppliers in Apple’s Supplier Clean Energy Program.

The 2017–2024 values are based on company disclosures. The 2025 figure represents the most recent reported estimate (Apple’s suppliers achieving 17.8 GW of renewable energy capacity).

In addition to clean energy sourcing, Apple is reducing material-related emissions. Its devices now use:

  • 99% recycled rare earth elements in magnets.
  • 99% recycled cobalt in batteries.
  • 100% recycled aluminum in many product enclosures.

These changes lower emissions and cut the need for new mining. Mining is a major source of industrial carbon emissions.

Apple 2030: The Road to True Carbon Neutrality

Apple’s long-term plan, called Apple 2030, aims to make its entire business carbon neutral by 2030. This includes all emissions from manufacturing, operations, and product use.

Since 2015, the company has already cut its total carbon footprint by over 60%. That means Apple has prevented around 41 million metric tons of CO₂ from entering the atmosphere compared to a decade ago.

apple carbon emissions 2024
Source: Apple (2024 carbon emissions)

To reach full carbon neutrality, Apple plans to:

  • Reduce emissions by 75% from its 2015 baseline.
  • Offset the remaining 25% through verified carbon removal projects.

The company is investing in nature-based solutions, such as reforestation and mangrove restoration, as part of its offset strategy. It is also exploring more advanced carbon removal methods, including direct air capture and mineralization.

Apple says its approach focuses on “real and permanent” carbon reductions, rather than temporary offsets. The goal is to ensure that all products — from iPhones to MacBooks — are produced with net-zero emissions by 2030.

Sustainability as a Core Business Strategy

Apple’s clean energy work is closely tied to the company’s supply chain, product design, and long-term growth. The company uses recycled materials and renewable energy. This helps lower its risk of resource shortages and energy price changes. These choices also make production more efficient and less dependent on fossil fuels.

The company is also building resilience against future climate policies. As governments tighten carbon rules, companies with cleaner supply chains may enjoy lower costs and better operations.

Apple’s sustainability efforts also support its growing investor base. Many institutional investors now use environmental, social, and governance (ESG) criteria to evaluate companies. For Apple, good environmental performance keeps it a top ESG-rated company worldwide.

Industry Trends: AI, Energy, and Emissions Collide 

The clean energy transition is changing how the tech industry operates. Data centers, manufacturing plants, and logistics networks are major sources of emissions.

Apple, Microsoft, and Google are all working to lower their carbon footprints. At the same time, they are expanding their AI infrastructure. This infrastructure uses a lot of power.

Analysts estimate that global data center electricity use could reach 945 terawatt-hours (TWh) by 2030 — more than double 2024 levels. That’s why access to clean, reliable power has become a key business issue.

data center electricity demand due AI 2030

In the consumer electronics market, sustainability is also becoming a selling point. More buyers now look for low-carbon, recyclable, or energy-efficient products. Apple’s use of recycled metals and renewable energy helps it meet this demand and strengthen its brand value.

At the same time, the global renewable energy market is booming. Solar and wind capacity is expected to grow by more than 50% by 2030, according to the International Energy Agency. This trend supports Apple’s ability to secure more clean power as its operations expand.

Balancing Growth and Green Goals: The Path Ahead

Apple has two big challenges. It needs to keep its strong financial performance and also meet its environmental commitments. As it grows its AI and cloud services, energy demand will keep rising. The company’s clean energy projects and emission reduction strategies will need to scale accordingly.

If Apple stays on track, it could become one of the first major tech companies to reach net-zero emissions across its entire value chain.

For investors, the combination of steady earnings, rising services revenue, and a strong sustainability record makes Apple a company to watch. Its success shows how environmental responsibility and business growth can move together, even in a rapidly changing global economy.

The post Apple’s Earnings and (AAPL) Stock Up, Emissions Down: How Its 2030 Vision Is Paying Off appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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Trump Inks Rare Earth Deals with Japan and Southeast Asia to Secure Supply Chains

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Trump Inks Rare Earth Deals with Japan and Southeast Asia to Secure Supply Chains

U.S. President Donald Trump signed new agreements on rare earth and critical minerals with Japan and some Southeast Asian countries. The deals were finalized during his October 2025 Asia tour. They aim to lower reliance on China, which leads to global production of these key materials.

Rare earth elements are vital for many things, including electric vehicles (EVs), wind turbines, smartphones, and defense systems.

Global demand is rising fast as countries invest more in clean energy and digital technologies. These new partnerships are among the biggest efforts yet to build alternative supply chains for critical minerals.

Japan Deal: Strengthening Industrial and Energy Security

On October 28, 2025, Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi signed a key deal. This agreement aims to secure supplies of rare earths, lithium, cobalt, and nickel. The agreement expands past U.S.–Japan cooperation and includes new plans for joint investments, technology sharing, and transparent supply management.

Under the deal, both countries plan to:

  • Build processing and refining plants for rare earths and battery minerals.
  • Create strategic stockpiles and improve recycling systems.
  • Support magnet production for EVs and defense industries.
  • Explore nuclear fuel supply cooperation for next-generation reactors.

Japan still relies on China for about 65% of its rare earth imports, even after years of trying to diversify. The new deal aims to cut this dependence by sourcing from U.S. allies like Australia and Vietnam. Also, it will process materials locally or in partner nations.

China rare earth magnet exports july 2025

The plan supports Japan’s economic security law, which pushes companies to find new material sources. Tokyo has set aside about ¥400 billion (US$2.7 billion) in funding to help domestic rare earth and battery material projects through 2027.

Southeast Asia: Expanding the Network Beyond China

Trump also announced new cooperation deals with Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, and Indonesia. These countries hold key mineral reserves and play important roles in regional trade.

Malaysia already operates one of the world’s few large rare-earth processing plants outside China. Vietnam has about 22 million tonnes of rare-earth reserves, second only to China. Indonesia and Thailand are major producers of nickel and tin, vital for EV batteries.

The Southeast Asia deals aim to:

  • Bring in U.S. and Japanese investments for mining and refining projects.
  • Train local workers and improve technical skills.
  • Cut tariffs and export barriers that slow regional trade.
  • Support cleaner and safer mining technologies under ESG standards.

Experts say these efforts could create an “Indo-Pacific mineral corridor.” This would link mines in Australia, processors in Southeast Asia, and manufacturers in Japan. This network would help reduce China’s control over the middle stages of the supply chain.

Why Rare Earths Matter: A Market Under Strain

Rare earths are a group of 17 metals used in many high-tech and clean energy products. The most valuable are neodymium, praseodymium, and dysprosium. These elements are essential for strong magnets used in EV motors, drones, and wind turbines.

China controls around 60–70% of mining and 85–90% of refining for rare earths. This gives Beijing major influence over countries that depend on these materials.

China rare earth mining and refining
Note: Data as of 2025, based on 2025 market assessments from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)

In 2024, the world produced about 350,000 tonnes of rare earth materials. The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects demand to reach over 500,000 tonnes by 2030. Market value could rise from $13 billion in 2024 to over $25 billion by 2030.

The U.S. currently makes about 12% of global rare earth ore, mostly from the Mountain Pass mine in California. However, much of it is still sent to China for processing. That dependence makes the new deals with Japan and Southeast Asia even more important.

Strategic and Economic Significance

For the United States, these deals mark a new stage in mineral diplomacy. Washington aims to safeguard clean energy and defense industries. It plans to do this by securing long-term supply agreements in Asia to help protect against disruptions.

Japan gains stronger support for its automotive, electronics, and robotics sectors. The country is restarting its rare earth recycling programs. These programs slowed down after Chinese export limits in 2010 made prices rise sharply.

For Southeast Asian nations, the agreements promise foreign investment, new jobs, and technology sharing. Malaysia and Vietnam might become key centers for refining and magnet production. This could create jobs for thousands of skilled workers.

The deals also back U.S. efforts to counter China’s export restrictions. In 2024, China limited exports of gallium, germanium, and certain rare earth magnets for “national security” reasons. Those actions disrupted supply chains and forced manufacturers in Japan, Europe, and the U.S. to look elsewhere for materials.

Rare Earth Market Outlook: Rising Demand, Tight Supply

Demand for rare earth magnets, especially neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnets, might triple by 2035. This rise is fueled by electric vehicles (EVs) and wind turbines. Each electric vehicle needs 1–2 kilograms of these magnets, while one offshore wind turbine can use up to 600 kilograms.

rare earth demand and supply
Source: McKinsey

The price of neodymium oxide has climbed from about US$70 per kg in 2020 to more than US$120 per kg in 2025, showing strong pressure on supply. China’s quota limits and environmental checks have made availability uncertain.

The U.S., Japan, and the European Union are expanding recycling programs. They aim to recover rare earths from old motors and electronics. This helps reduce reliance on mined materials. Yet, recycling currently provides less than 5% of total global demand.

The Cost of Breaking Free from China

Building alternative supply chains is difficult. Several challenges include:

  • High costs: Rare-earth plants are expensive and take years to build.
  • Environmental risks: Poor waste management can pollute water and soil.
  • Financing issues: Price swings make investors cautious.
  • Geopolitical tensions: China may respond by lowering prices or tightening exports.

Experts say that without strong government support, new producers may not compete with China’s scale and low costs. Both the U.S. and Japan are studying tax credits and loan programs to help new projects move forward.

Forging a New Indo-Pacific Supply Chain

These rare earth agreements send a clear message: the U.S. and its allies want to reshape global supply chains around trusted partners. The next steps include choosing priority projects, securing funding, and coordinating trade rules.

If successful, these efforts could shift 15–20% of global refining capacity away from China by the early 2030s. That would mark the biggest industry shift in decades.

For the U.S., Japan, and Southeast Asia, the deals combine economic security, industrial growth, and clean energy goals. They also show how the energy transition and geopolitics are now closely linked.

In the long run, building diverse and stable rare earth supply chains could make clean energy industries stronger and less dependent on any single country.

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