Published

9 months ago

May 7, 2025

Alice Rush

We handpick and explain the most important stories at the intersection of climate, land, food and nature over the past fortnight.

This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s fortnightly Cropped email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.

Key developments

US ocean actions cause alarm

DEEP-SEA BREACHES: US president Donald Trump signed an executive order “aimed at making it easier for companies to mine the deep seafloor”, including in international waters, according to National Public Radio. BBC News reported that the move “has been met by condemnation from China, which said it ‘violates’ international law”. In the South China Morning Post, two researchers at Nanjing University wrote that the order “will force China to act”, adding that Trump has “set the stage for heightened geopolitical tensions”. They concluded: “Should the US insist on unilateral mining, China, in collaboration with international partners, may implement maritime monitoring initiatives…[that] could document the environmental impact and breaches of standards.”

RISKY BUSINESS: Meanwhile, a Trump proclamation to loosen fishing regulations surrounding federally protected areas of the ocean – issued in mid-April – “poses major risks”, the Guardian reported. The Pacific Islands Heritage Marine national monument is home to the “most undisturbed coral reef within the US”, as well as “many threatened, endangered and depleted species”, the outlet added. Other experts said that the order – which purportedly aims to promote US fishing interests – “will negatively impact American fishers in the long run, leading to higher seafood prices for American consumers”.

OCEAN FUNDING FALLS: The 10th edition of the Our Ocean conference was held in Busan, South Korea, over 28-30 April, EFE Verde reported, where it was “attended by ministerial representatives from 100 different countries”. The newswire added that the conference would “serve as an impetus for participants to announce effective actions to accelerate the achievement of the goal of protecting 30% of the world’s oceans by 2030”. According to Mongabay, delegates to the conference announced funding commitments “totalling around $9.1bn”, but added that “this year’s numbers were the lowest since 2016”. The outlet noted that this edition was the first time the US “did not send an official delegation or make any pledges”.

Between tariffs and traceability

TARIFF-DRIVEN DEFORESTATION: US tariffs on Indonesian and Malaysian palm oil could drive up demand for soybean oil – a cheaper but more land-intensive option – and exacerbate deforestation, according to climate experts consulted by BusinessGreen. Elsewhere, Dialogue Earth reported on expectations that Brazil could expand its export of agricultural commodities to China, increasing the risk of deforestation in the South American country. Experts told the outlet that products such as soya, corn, beef and chicken could experience a surge in international demand. It added that Brazil captured a significant share of the Chinese soya market from the US during Trump’s first term.

BACKWARDS STEPS: Brazil’s supreme court ruled that Mato Grosso, the country’s biggest farming state, is allowed to withdraw tax incentives for signatories of the “soy moratorium” initiative, Reuters reported. The soy moratorium, a 2006 voluntary ban aimed at disincentivising soybean purchases from deforested areas of the Amazon, has been praised by conservationists for “slowing damage to the world’s largest rainforest”, the newswire said. However, farm lobbyists interested in increasing production are opposed to the agreement. The ruling needs to be ratified by a panel of supreme court justices before entering into force in January 2026.

COFFEE TRACEABILITY: The EU deforestation regulation has coffee farmers in Ethiopia “scrambling”, the New York Times reported. Under the new EU environmental regulation, which will enter into force at the end of the year, producers of major commodity crops will have to provide geolocation data to demonstrate that their products were not grown on recently deforested land. The outlet quoted the head of a coffee farmers’ cooperative, who said they need support to carry out the traceability of their products, adding that to do so is “very challenging and costly, and we don’t have any help”.

Spotlight

The climate uncertainties for west Africa’s fishers

This week, Carbon Brief unpacks three key takeaways from a recent report, published by the Salata Institute for Climate and Sustainability, on the sustainability of west African fisheries.

In west Africa, coastal fishing communities underpin a large proportion of the region’s economies and traditional ways of life.

Their number has only increased in recent years as a result of population growth and migration, driven by economic opportunity – even as fishers have faced declining catches.

A new report detailed the challenges facing the Gulf of Guinea’s fisherfolk amid a warming climate, as well as offering insight into what the future of the fishery could look like.

Here, Carbon Brief unpacked three key messages from the report.

1. Key fish catches have declined dramatically since the 1990s.

The report identified three major factors that have contributed to the decline of fish stocks in the Gulf of Guinea: climate-change-driven ocean warming, illegal fishing by industrial Chinese trawling ships and overfishing by fisherfolk using traditional methods.

According to the report, sea surface temperatures along the Ghanaian coast have increased at a rate of 0.011C annually since the 1960s – and could increase by another 1.6C by the end of the century under a high-emissions scenario. This warming is driving “significant geographic shifts” in the range of the species targeted by west Africa’s fisherfolk, the report said.

The report also identified other climate-driven threats to fishers, such as sea level rise, deoxygenation of ocean waters and beach erosion.

As a result of dwindling numbers, catches have fallen significantly – in some cases, by more than 50% – since the early 1990s “despite an increased number of workdays spent fishing, evidence of an underlying stock collapse”, the report warned.

Even under good fisheries management in the future, the report warned that the maximum catch potential will continue to decline due to warming.

2. Current management strategies are not sufficient to allow fish stocks to recover.

The climate pressures on the Gulf of Guinea fish stocks are compounded by overfishing from two main sources – industrial trawling ships, predominantly from China, and an increasing number of artisanal fisherfolk using improved equipment, such as outboard motors.

Ghana’s artisanal fishing fleet has grown from around 8,000 canoes in 1990 to more than 12,000 in 2022. Previous research has estimated that this fleet lands up to 70% of the small fish taken in the country. The report did not mince words:

“They clearly contribute to overfishing.”

Both Ghana and neighbouring Ivory Coast have implemented “closed seasons” during peak spawning months in an attempt to allow the fish populations to recover, but the policies “have produced disappointing results so far”, the report noted. It said:

“To be technically effective in rebuilding fish stocks, the closed seasons should have begun prior to 2016, before spawning stock biomass had been so badly harmed.”

3. Diversifying income will be key for adapting these communities to climate change.

The researchers surveyed fishing communities in Ghana, Ivory Coast and Nigeria that relied on fishing for “nearly all” of their livelihoods. Most of the individuals identified a decrease in catch over the preceding years.

A large majority of respondents answered “no” when asked if their children would be able to make a living off fishing or fishing-related activities.

The researchers then evaluated programmes in Ghana, undertaken alongside the US Agency for International Development, that were focused on helping fishing households diversify their income. The weekly earnings “were far from a full replacement for fishing income, but to a varying extent they did provide a useful supplement”, the authors wrote.

However, funding for these programmes was cancelled by the Trump administration in its attempt to dismantle USAID in early 2025. The report added:

“Finding substitute funding…will be difficult.”

News and views

CONSERVATION REFORM: The Washington Post editorial board called for “reforming” the US Endangered Species Act “to better incentivise citizens to protect the country’s precious biodiversity”, amid Trump’s attempted weakening of the landmark law. It argued for “giving landowners financial incentives to assist in conservation efforts” – similar to existing subsidy programmes from the US agriculture department. The editorial said: “The scale of the threats to biodiversity…makes it essential to expand federal conservation strategy beyond punitive measures.”

IMPORT IMBALANCE: Amid growing US-China tensions, top Chinese policymakers “said the country could do without American farm and energy imports”, according to the Financial Times. China’s state planner, Zhao Chenxin, “said domestic farm and energy production, along with imports from non-US sources, would be more than enough to satisfy demand”, the outlet reported. At the same time, the FT said, the “loss of the Chinese market would be a substantial hit for US farmers”. It added: “China has shown little appetite for negotiations and repeatedly blasted Washington’s claims of ongoing discussions as false.”

WAYWARD WHALES: Australia’s whale-watching season “started early” this year, according to the Sydney Morning Herald, which said the early migration was a “possible sign of stress from climate change”. A population of humpback whales migrates from Antarctica to Australia at the end of the southern hemisphere summer in “one of the longest migrations of any mammal”, the outlet said. The newspaper cited Dr Olaf Meynecke, a research fellow at Australia’s Griffith University, who explained that the “earlier migration was probably because record-low sea ice reduced krill numbers, making it harder for whales to find food”.

COFFEE GOES UP: The Associated Press reported that coffee prices have remained high due to drought and heat last year that impacted production in Brazil and Vietnam, the world’s largest coffee growers. US tariffs on coffee-producing countries “are expected to drive up costs for Americans”, the newswire added. Elsewhere, extreme weather conditions, such as drought and tropical cyclones, have affected major coconut-growing countries, with the Philippines’ output expected to decline by 20%, Bloomberg reported.

OFFSET OPPOSITION: Inhabitants of the Kajiado county, in Kenya, clashed over a carbon-offsetting initiative that would have set up a 40-year land lease deal, the Daily Nation reported. The project involved leasing 168,000 acres of the community’s ancestral land in return for “promis[ed] financial benefits”. Opponents of the deal said they were “misled and misinformed about the whole process”, but the community’s chair “dismissed the allegations of fraud or coercion”. The final signing of the deal was “postponed indefinitely”, as the two sides could not come to an agreement.

INCOMPLETE ACCOUNTING: Science Feedback questioned a recent study, published in Environmental Research Letters and covered in the media, that claimed agriculture is the largest greenhouse gas-emitting sector. According to climate scientists consulted by the outlet, while methane emissions from agriculture and fossil fuels are comparable, fossil fuels have a greater impact on CO2 emissions. Prof Pierre Friedlingstein, a climate scientist at the University of Exeter, told the outlet that the paper only considered gross emissions, not factoring in the carbon sequestration that occurs in agriculture.

Watch, read, listen

ATTENBOROUGH’S OCEAN: BBC News covered Sir David Attenborough’s new documentary, which chronicles the Earth’s oceans.

SIGHTING BIRDS: The New York Times chronicled a bird-watching trip to the Panama Canal, home to a thousand native and migratory birds.

WHALE SONGS: A Mongabay podcast interviewed biological oceanographer Dr John Ryan, who explained why listening to whales’ songs is important for their conservation.

FORESTS MONITORING: A short video by France24 featured the European Space Agency’s new satellite, which is aimed at monitoring the world’s forests.

New science

Research published in Nature Ecology & Evolution found that there is no “one-size-fits-all” approach to preserving biodiversity amid growing agriculture. The scientists found that neither agricultural expansion and intensification “consistently benefits biodiversity” and urged a “context-dependent balance” between the two.
Intense tropical cyclones may pose an extinction risk to organisms living on five island chains that are biodiversity hotspots, a Biological Conservation study found. The researchers tracked the trajectory and frequency of severe tropical cyclones over the last 50 years and used the IUCN red list to identify species at risk.
Another Nature Ecology and Evolution study found that implementing strategic restoration measures – such as those outlined in the EU nature restoration law – could improve the conservation status of more than 20% of endangered species and increase carbon sequestration.

In the diary

5-8 May: World Bank Land Conference | Washington DC
5-9 May: 20th session of the UN Forum on Forests | New York
10 May: World Migratory Bird Day
22 May: International Day for Biological Diversity

Cropped is researched and written by Dr Giuliana Viglione, Aruna Chandrasekhar, Daisy Dunne, Orla Dwyer and Yanine Quiroz. Please send tips and feedback to cropped@carbonbrief.org

The post Cropped 7 May 2025: Ocean alarm; Tariff deforestation risk; West Africa’s fisheries appeared first on Carbon Brief.

Cropped 7 May 2025: Ocean alarm; Tariff deforestation risk; West Africa’s fisheries

Greenhouse Gases

DeBriefed 6 February 2026: US secret climate panel ‘unlawful’ | China’s clean energy boon | Can humans reverse nature loss?

Published

3 days ago

February 6, 2026

Alice Rush

Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.

This week

Secrets and layoffs

UNLAWFUL PANEL: A federal judge ruled that the US energy department “violated the law when secretary Chris Wright handpicked five researchers who rejected the scientific consensus on climate change to work in secret on a sweeping government report on global warming”, reported the New York Times. The newspaper explained that a 1972 law “does not allow agencies to recruit or rely on secret groups for the purposes of policymaking”. A Carbon Brief factcheck found more than 100 false or misleading claims in the report.

DARKNESS DESCENDS: The Washington Post reportedly sent layoff notices to “at least 14” of its climate journalists, as part of a wider move from the newspaper’s billionaire owner, Jeff Bezos, to eliminate 300 jobs at the publication, claimed Climate Colored Goggles. After the layoffs, the newspaper will have five journalists left on its award-winning climate desk, according to the substack run by a former climate reporter at the Los Angeles Times. It comes after CBS News laid off most of its climate team in October, it added.

WIND UNBLOCKED: Elsewhere, a separate federal ruling said that a wind project off the coast of New York state can continue, which now means that “all five offshore wind projects halted by the Trump administration in December can resume construction”, said Reuters. Bloomberg added that “Ørsted said it has spent $7bn on the development, which is 45% complete”.

Around the world

CHANGING TIDES: The EU is “mulling a new strategy” in climate diplomacy after struggling to gather support for “faster, more ambitious action to cut planet-heating emissions” at last year’s UN climate summit COP30, reported Reuters.
FINANCE ‘CUT’: The UK government is planning to cut climate finance by more than a fifth, from £11.6bn over the past five years to £9bn in the next five, according to the Guardian.
BIG PLANS: India’s 2026 budget included a new $2.2bn funding push for carbon capture technologies, reported Carbon Brief. The budget also outlined support for renewables and the mining and processing of critical minerals.
MOROCCO FLOODS: More than 140,000 people have been evacuated in Morocco as “heavy rainfall and water releases from overfilled dams led to flooding”, reported the Associated Press.
CASHFLOW: “Flawed” economic models used by governments and financial bodies “ignor[e] shocks from extreme weather and climate tipping points”, posing the risk of a “global financial crash”, according to a Carbon Tracker report covered by the Guardian.
HEATING UP: The International Olympic Committee is discussing options to hold future winter games earlier in the year “because of the effects of warmer temperatures”, said the Associated Press.

54%

The increase in new solar capacity installed in Africa over 2024-25 – the continent’s fastest growth on record, according to a Global Solar Council report covered by Bloomberg.

Latest climate research

Arctic warming significantly postpones the retreat of the Afro-Asian summer monsoon, worsening autumn rainfall | Environmental Research Letters
“Positive” images of heatwaves reduce the impact of messages about extreme heat, according to a survey of 4,000 US adults | Environmental Communication
Greenland’s “peripheral” glaciers are projected to lose nearly one-fifth of their total area and almost one-third of their total volume by 2100 under a low-emissions scenario | The Cryosphere

(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)

Captured

Solar power, electric vehicles and other clean-energy technologies drove more than a third of the growth in China’s economy in 2025 – and more than 90% of the rise in investment, according to new analysis for Carbon Brief (shown in blue above). Clean-energy sectors contributed a record 15.4tn yuan ($2.1tn) in 2025, some 11.4% of China’s gross domestic product (GDP) – comparable to the economies of Brazil or Canada, the analysis said.

Spotlight

Can humans reverse nature decline?

This week, Carbon Brief travelled to a UN event in Manchester, UK to speak to biodiversity scientists about the chances of reversing nature loss.

Officials from more than 150 countries arrived in Manchester this week to approve a new UN report on how nature underpins economic prosperity.

The meeting comes just four years before nations are due to meet a global target to halt and reverse biodiversity loss, agreed in 2022 under the landmark “Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework” (GBF).

At the sidelines of the meeting, Carbon Brief spoke to a range of scientists about humanity’s chances of meeting the 2030 goal. Their answers have been edited for length and clarity.

Dr David Obura, ecologist and chair of Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES)

We can’t halt and reverse the decline of every ecosystem. But we can try to “bend the curve” or halt and reverse the drivers of decline. That’s the economic drivers, the indirect drivers and the values shifts we need to have. What the GBF aspires to do, in terms of halting and reversing biodiversity loss, we can put in place the enabling drivers for that by 2030, but we won’t be able to do it fast enough at this point to halt [the loss] of all ecosystems.

Dr Luthando Dziba, executive secretary of IPBES

Countries are due to report on progress by the end of February this year on their national strategies to the Convention on Biological Diversity [CBD]. Once we get that, coupled with a process that is ongoing within the CBD, which is called the global stocktake, I think that’s going to give insights on progress as to whether this is possible to achieve by 2030…Are we on the right trajectory? I think we are and hopefully we will continue to move towards the final destination of having halted biodiversity loss, but also of living in harmony with nature.

Prof Laura Pereira, scientist at the Global Change Institute at Wits University, South Africa

At the global level, I think it’s very unlikely that we’re going to achieve the overall goal of halting biodiversity loss by 2030. That being said, I think we will make substantial inroads towards achieving our longer term targets. There is a lot of hope, but we’ve also got to be very aware that we have not necessarily seen the transformative changes that are going to be needed to really reverse the impacts on biodiversity.

Dr David Cooper, chair of the UK’s Joint Nature Conservation Committee and former executive secretary of the Convention on Biological Diversity

It’s important to look at the GBF as a whole…I think it is possible to achieve those targets, or at least most of them, and to make substantial progress towards them. It is possible, still, to take action to put nature on a path to recovery. We’ll have to increasingly look at the drivers.

Prof Andrew Gonzalez, McGill University professor and co-chair of an IPBES biodiversity monitoring assessment

I think for many of the 23 targets across the GBF, it’s going to be challenging to hit those by 2030. I think we’re looking at a process that’s starting now in earnest as countries [implement steps and measure progress]…You have to align efforts for conserving nature, the economics of protecting nature [and] the social dimensions of that, and who benefits, whose rights are preserved and protected.

Neville Ash, director of the UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre

The ambitions in the 2030 targets are very high, so it’s going to be a stretch for many governments to make the actions necessary to achieve those targets, but even if we make all the actions in the next four years, it doesn’t mean we halt and reverse biodiversity loss by 2030. It means we put the action in place to enable that to happen in the future…The important thing at this stage is the urgent action to address the loss of biodiversity, with the result of that finding its way through by the ambition of 2050 of living in harmony with nature.

Prof Pam McElwee, Rutgers University professor and co-chair of an IPBES “nexus assessment” report

If you look at all of the available evidence, it’s pretty clear that we’re going to keep experiencing biodiversity decline. I mean, it’s fairly similar to the 1.5C climate target. We are not going to meet that either. But that doesn’t mean that you slow down the ambition…even though you recognise that we probably won’t meet that specific timebound target, that’s all the more reason to continue to do what we’re doing and, in fact, accelerate action.

Watch, read, listen

OIL IMPACTS: Gas flaring has risen in the Niger Delta since oil and gas major Shell sold its assets in the Nigerian “oil hub”, a Climate Home News investigation found.

LOW SNOW: The Washington Post explored how “climate change is making the Winter Olympics harder to host”.

CULTURE WARS: A Media Confidential podcast examined when climate coverage in the UK became “part of the culture wars”.

Coming up

2-8 February: 12th session of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), Manchester, UK
8 February: Japanese general election
8 February: Portugal presidential election
11 February: Barbados general election
11-12 February: UN climate chief Simon Stiell due to speak in Istanbul, Turkey

Pick of the jobs

UK Met Office, senior climate science communicator | Salary: £43,081-£46,728. Location: Exeter, UK
Canadian Red Cross, programme officer, Indigenous operations – disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation | Salary: $56,520-$60,053. Location: Manitoba, Canada
Aldersgate Group, policy officer | Salary: £33,949-£39,253. Location: London (hybrid)

DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.

This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.

The post DeBriefed 6 February 2026: US secret climate panel ‘unlawful’ | China’s clean energy boon | Can humans reverse nature loss? appeared first on Carbon Brief.

DeBriefed 6 February 2026: US secret climate panel ‘unlawful’ | China’s clean energy boon | Can humans reverse nature loss?

Greenhouse Gases

China Briefing 5 February 2026: Clean energy’s share of economy | Record renewables | Thawing relations with UK

Published

4 days ago

February 5, 2026

Alice Rush

Welcome to Carbon Brief’s China Briefing.

China Briefing handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight. Subscribe for free here.

Key developments

Solar and wind eclipsed coal

‘FIRST TIME IN HISTORY’: China’s total power capacity reached 3,890 gigawatts (GW) in 2025, according to a National Energy Administration (NEA) data release covered by industry news outlet International Energy Net. Of this, it said, solar capacity rose 35% to 1,200GW and wind capacity was up 23% to 640GW, while thermal capacity – which is mostly coal – grew 6% to just over 1,500GW. This marks the “first time in history” that wind and solar capacity has outranked coal capacity in China’s power mix, reported the state-run newspaper China Daily. China’s grid-related energy storage capacity exceeded 213GW in 2025, said state news agency Xinhua. Meanwhile, clean-energy industries “drove more than 90%” of investment growth and more than half of GDP growth last year, said the Guardian in its coverage of new analysis for Carbon Brief. (See more in the spotlight below.)

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DAWN FOR SOLAR: Solar power capacity alone may outpace coal in 2026, according to projections by the China Electricity Council (CEC), reported business news outlet 21st Century Business Herald. It added that non-fossil sources could account for 63% of the power mix this year, with coal falling to 31%. Separately, the China Renewable Energy Society said that annual wind-power additions could grow by between 600-980GW over the next five years, with annual additions of 120GW expected until 2028, said industry news outlet China Energy Net. China Energy Net also published the full CEC report.

STATE MEDIA VOICE: Xinhua published several energy- and climate-related articles in a series on the 15th five-year plan. One said that becoming a low-carbon energy “powerhouse” will support decarbonisation efforts, strengthen industrial innovation and improve China’s “global competitive edge and standing”. Another stated that coal consumption is “expected” to peak around 2027, with continued “growth” in the power and chemicals sector, while oil has already peaked. A third noted that distributed energy systems better matched the “characteristics of renewable energy” than centralised ones, but warned against “blind” expansion and insufficient supporting infrastructure. Others in the series discussed biodiversity and environmental protection and recycling of clean-energy technology. Meanwhile, the communist party-affiliated People’s Daily said that oil will continue to play a “vital role” in China, even after demand peaks.

Starmer and Xi endorsed clean-energy cooperation

CLIMATE PARTNERSHIP: UK prime minister Keir Starmer and Chinese president Xi Jinping pledged in Beijing to deepen cooperation on “green energy”, reported finance news outlet Caixin. They also agreed to establish a “China-UK high-level climate and nature partnership”, said China Daily. Xi told Starmer that the two countries should “carry out joint research and industrial transformation” in new energy and low-carbon technologies, according to Xinhua. It also cited Xi as saying China “hopes” the UK will provide a “fair” business environment for Chinese companies.

Sign up to Carbon Brief’s free “China Briefing” email newsletter. All you need to know about the latest developments relating to China and climate change. Sent to your inbox every Thursday.

OCTOPUS OVERSEAS: During the visit, UK power-trading company Octopus Energy and Chinese energy services firm PCG Power announced they would be starting a new joint venture in China, named Bitong Energy, reported industry news outlet PV Magazine. The move “marks a notable direct entry” of a foreign company into China’s “tightly regulated electricity market”, said Caixin.

PUSH AND PULL: UK policymakers also visited Chinese clean-energy technology manufacturer Envision in Shanghai, reported finance news outlet Yicai. It quoted UK business secretary Peter Kyle emphasising that partnering with companies “like Envision” on sustainability is a “really important part of our future”, particularly in terms of job creation in the UK. Trade minister Chris Bryant told Radio Scotland Breakfast that the government will decide on Chinese wind turbine manufacturer Mingyang’s plans for a Scotland factory “soon”. Researchers at the thinktank Oxford Institute for Energy Studies wrote in a guest post for Carbon Brief that greater Chinese competition in Europe’s wind market could “help spur competition in Europe”, if localisation rules and “other guardrails” are applied.

More China news

LIFE SUPPORT: China will update its coal capacity payment mechanism, which will raise thresholds for coal-fired power plants and expand to cover gas-fired power and pumped and new-energy storage, reported current affairs outlet China News.
FRONTIER TECH: The world’s “largest compressed-air power storage plant” has begun operating in China, said Bloomberg.
PARTNERSHIP A ‘MISTAKE’: The EU launched a “foreign subsidies” probe into Chinese wind turbine company Goldwind, said the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post. EU climate chief Wopke Hoekstra said the bloc must resist China’s pull in clean technologies, according to Bloomberg.
TRADE SPAT: The World Trade Organization “backed a complaint by China” that the US Inflation Reduction Act “discriminated against” Chinese cleantech exports, said Reuters.
NEW RULES: China has set “new regulations” for the Waliguan Baseline Observatory, which provides “key scientific references for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change”, said the People’s Daily.

Captured

New or reactivated proposals for coal-fired power plants in China totalled 161GW in 2025, according to a new report covered by Carbon Brief.

Spotlight

Clean energy drove China’s economic growth in 2025

New analysis for Carbon Brief finds that clean-energy sectors contributed the equivalent of $2.1tn to China’s economy last year, making it a key driver of growth. However, headwinds in 2026 could restrict growth going forward – especially for the solar sector.

Below is an excerpt from the article, which can be read in full on Carbon Brief’s website.

Solar power, electric vehicles (EVs) and other clean-energy technologies drove more than a third of the growth in China’s economy in 2025 – and more than 90% of the rise in investment.

Clean-energy sectors contributed a record 15.4tn yuan ($2.1tn) in 2025, some 11.4% of China’s gross domestic product (GDP)

Analysis shows that China’s clean-energy sectors nearly doubled in real value between 2022-25 and – if they were a country – would now be the 8th-largest economy in the world.

These investments in clean-energy manufacturing represent a large bet on the energy transition in China and overseas, creating an incentive for the government and enterprises to keep the boom going.

However, there is uncertainty about what will happen this year and beyond, particularly due to a new pricing system, worsening industrial “overcapacity” and trade tensions.

Outperforming the wider economy

China’s clean-energy economy continues to grow far more quickly than the wider economy, making an outsized contribution to annual growth.

Without these sectors, China’s GDP would have expanded by 3.5% in 2025 instead of the reported 5.0%, missing the target of “around 5%” growth by a wide margin.

Clean energy made a crucial contribution during a challenging year, when promoting economic growth was the foremost aim for policymakers.

In 2024, EVs and solar had been the largest growth drivers. In 2025, it was EVs and batteries, which delivered 44% of the economic impact and more than half of the growth of the clean-energy industries.

The next largest subsector was clean-power generation, transmission and storage, which made up 40% of the contribution to GDP and 30% of the growth in 2025.

Within the electricity sector, the largest drivers were growth in investment in wind and solar power generation capacity, along with growth in power output from solar and wind, followed by the exports of solar-power equipment and materials.

But investment in solar-panel supply chains, a major growth driver in 2022-23, continued to fall for the second year, as the government made efforts to rein in overcapacity and “irrational” price competition.

Headwinds for solar

Ongoing investment of hundreds of billions of dollars represents a gigantic bet on a continuing global energy transition.

However, developments next year and beyond are unclear, particularly for solar. A new pricing system for renewable power is creating uncertainty, while central government targets have been set far below current rates of clean-electricity additions.

Investment in solar-power generation and solar manufacturing declined in the second half of the year.

The reduction in the prices of clean-energy technology has been so dramatic that when the prices for GDP statistics are updated, the sectors’ contribution to real GDP – adjusted for inflation or, in this case deflation – will be revised down.

Nevertheless, the key economic role of the industry creates a strong motivation to keep the clean-energy boom going. A slowdown in the domestic market could also undermine efforts to stem overcapacity and inflame trade tensions by increasing pressure on exports to absorb supply.

Local governments and state-owned enterprises will also influence the outlook for the sector.

Provincial governments have a lot of leeway in implementing the new electricity markets and contracting systems for renewable power generation. The new five-year plans, to be published this year, will, therefore, be of major importance.

This spotlight was written for Carbon Brief by Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), and Belinda Schaepe, China policy analyst at CREA. CREA China analysts Qi Qin and Chengcheng Qiu contributed research.

Watch, read, listen

PROVINCE INFLUENCE: The Institute for Global Decarbonization Progress, a Beijing-based thinktank, published a report examining the climate-related statements in provincial recommendations for the 15th five-year plan.

‘PIVOT’?: The Outrage + Optimism podcast spoke with the University of Bath’s Dr Yixian Sun about whether China sees itself as a climate leader and what its role in climate negotiations could be going forward.

COOKING FOR CLEAN-TECH: Caixin covered rising demand for China’s “gutter oil” as companies “scramble” to decarbonise.

DON’T GO IT ALONE: China News broadcast the Chinese foreign ministry’s response to the withdrawal of the US from the Paris Agreement, with spokeswoman Mao Ning saying “no country can remain unaffected” by climate change.

$6.8tn

The current size of China’s green-finance economy, including loans, bonds and equity, according to Dr Ma Jun, the Institute of Finance and Sustainability’s president,in a report launch event attended by Carbon Brief. Dr Ma added that “green loans” make up 16% of all loans in China, with some areas seeing them take a 34% share.

New science

China’s official emissions inventories have overestimated its hydrofluorocarbon emissions by an average of 117m tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (mtCO2e) every year since 2017 | Nature Geoscience
“Intensified forest management efforts” in China from 2010 onwards have been linked to an acceleration in carbon absorption by plants and soils | Communications Earth and Environment

Recently published on WeChat

China Briefing is written by Anika Patel and edited by Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org

The post China Briefing 5 February 2026: Clean energy’s share of economy | Record renewables | Thawing relations with UK appeared first on Carbon Brief.

China Briefing 5 February 2026: Clean energy’s share of economy | Record renewables | Thawing relations with UK

Greenhouse Gases

Analysis: Clean energy drove more than a third of China’s GDP growth in 2025

Published

4 days ago

February 4, 2026

Alice Rush

Solar power, electric vehicles (EVs) and other clean-energy technologies drove more than a third of the growth in China’s economy in 2025 – and more than 90% of the rise in investment.

Clean-energy sectors contributed a record 15.4tn yuan ($2.1tn) in 2025, some 11.4% of China’s gross domestic product (GDP) – comparable to the economies of Brazil or Canada.

The new analysis for Carbon Brief, based on official figures, industry data and analyst reports, shows that China’s clean-energy sectors nearly doubled in real value between 2022-25 and – if they were a country – would now be the 8th-largest economy in the world.

Other key findings from the analysis include:

Without clean-energy sectors, China would have missed its target for GDP growth of “around 5%”, expanding by 3.5% in 2025 instead of the reported 5.0%.
Clean-energy industries are expanding much more quickly than China’s economy overall, with their annual growth rate accelerating from 12% in 2024 to 18% in 2025.
The “new three” of EVs, batteries and solar continue to dominate the economic contribution of clean energy in China, generating two-thirds of the value added and attracting more than half of all investment in the sectors.
China’s investments in clean energy reached 7.2tn yuan ($1.0tn) in 2025, roughly four times the still sizable $260bn put into fossil-fuel extraction and coal power.
Exports of clean-energy technologies grew rapidly in 2025, but China’s domestic market still far exceeds the export market in value for Chinese firms.

These investments in clean-energy manufacturing represent a large bet on the energy transition in China and overseas, creating an incentive for the government and enterprises to keep the boom going.

However, there is uncertainty about what will happen this year and beyond, particularly for solar power, where growth has slowed in response to a new pricing system and where central government targets have been set far below the recent rate of expansion.

An ongoing slowdown could turn the sectors into a drag on GDP, while worsening industrial “overcapacity” and exacerbating trade tensions.

Yet, even if central government targets in the next five-year plan are modest, those from local governments and state-owned enterprises could still drive significant growth in clean energy.

This article updates analysis previously reported for 2023 and 2024.

Clean-energy sectors outperform wider economy

China’s clean-energy economy continues to grow far more quickly than the wider economy. This means that it is making an outsize contribution to annual economic growth.

The figure below shows that clean-energy technologies drove more than a third of the growth in China’s economy overall in 2025 and more than 90% of the net rise in investment.

Contributions to the growth in Chinese investment (left) and GDP overall (right) in 2025 by sector, trillion yuan. Source: Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) analysis for Carbon Brief.

In 2022, China’s clean-energy economy was worth an estimated 8.4tn yuan ($1.2tn). By 2025, the sectors had nearly doubled in value to 15.4tn yuan ($2.1tn).

This is comparable to the entire output of Brazil or Canada and positions the Chinese clean-energy industry as the 8th-largest economy in the world. Its value is roughly half the size of the economy of India – the world’s fourth largest – or of the US state of California.

The outperformance of the clean-energy sectors means that they are also claiming a rising share of China’s economy overall, as shown in the figure below.

Share of China’s GDP contributed by clean-energy sectors, %. Source: CREA analysis for Carbon Brief.

This share has risen from 7.3% of China’s GDP in 2022 to 11.4% in 2025.

Without clean-energy sectors, China’s GDP would have expanded by 3.5% in 2025 instead of the reported 5.0%, missing the target of “around 5%” growth by a wide margin.

Clean energy thus made a crucial contribution during a challenging year, when promoting economic growth was the foremost aim for policymakers.

The table below includes a detailed breakdown by sector and activity.

Sector	Activity	Value in 2025, CNY bln	Value in 2025, USD bln	Year-on-year growth	Growth contribution	Value contribution	Value in 2025, CNY trn	Value in 2024, CNY trn	Value in 2023, CNY trn	Value in 2022, CNY trn
EVs	Investment: manufacturing capacity	1,643	228	18%	10.4%	10.7%	1.6	1.4	1.2	0.9
EVs	Investment: charging infrastructure	192	27	58%	2.9%	1.2%	0.192	0.122	0.1	0.08
EVs	Production of vehicles	3,940	548	29%	36.4%	25.6%	3.94	3.065	2.26	1.65
Batteries	Investment: battery manufacturing	277	38	35%	3.0%	1.8%	0.277	0.205	0.32	0.15
Batteries	Exports: batteries	724	101	51%	10.1%	4.7%	0.724	0.48	0.46	0.34
Solar power	Investment: power generation capacity	1,182	164	15%	6.3%	7.7%	1.182	1.031	0.808	0.34
Solar power	Investment: manufacturing capacity	506	70	-23%	-6.5%	3.3%	0.506	0.662	0.95	0.51
Solar power	Electricity generation	491	68	33%	5.1%	3.2%	0.491	0.369	0.26	0.19
Solar power	Exports of components	681	95	21%	4.9%	4.4%	0.681	0.562	0.5	0.35
Wind power	Investment: power generation capacity, onshore	612	85	47%	8.1%	4.0%	0.612	0.417	0.397	0.21
Wind power	Investment: power generation capacity, offshore	96	13	98%	2.0%	0.6%	0.096	0.048	0.086	0.06
Wind power	Electricity generation	510	71	13%	2.4%	3.3%	0.51	0.453	0.4	0.34
Nuclear power	Investment: power generation capacity	173	24	18%	1.1%	1.1%	0.17	0.15	0.09	0.07
Nuclear power	Electricity generation	216	30	8%	0.7%	1.4%	0.216	0.2	0.19	0.19
Hydropower	Investment: power generation capacity	54	7	-7%	-0.2%	0.3%	0.05	0.06	0.06	0.06
Hydropower	Electricity generation	582	81	3%	0.6%	3.8%	0.582	0.567	0.51	0.51
Rail transportation	Investment	902	125	6%	2.1%	5.8%	0.902	0.851	0.764	0.714
Rail transportation	Transport of passengers and goods	1,020	142	3%	1.3%	6.6%	1.02	0.99	0.964	0.694
Electricity transmission	Investment: transmission capacity	644	90	6%	1.5%	4.2%	0.64	0.61	0.53	0.5
Electricity transmission	Transmission of clean power	52	7	14%	0.3%	0.3%	0.052	0.046	0.04	0.04
Energy storage	Investment: Pumped hydro	53	7	5%	0.1%	0.3%	0.05	0.05	0.04	0.03
Energy storage	Investment: Grid-connected batteries	232	32	52%	3.3%	1.5%	0.232	0.152	0.08	0.02
Energy storage	Investment: Electrolysers	11	2	29%	0.1%	0.1%	0.011	0.009	0	0
Energy efficiency	Revenue: Energy service companies	620	86	17%	3.8%	4.0%	0.62	0.528003	0.52	0.45
Total	Investments	7,198	1001	15%	38.2%	46.7%	7.20	6.28	6.00	4.11
Total	Production of goods and services	8,216	1,143	22%	61.8%	53.3%	8.22	6.73	5.58	4.32
Total	Total GDP contribution	15,414	2144	18%	100.0%	100.0%	15.41	13.01	11.58	8.42

EVs and batteries were the largest drivers of GDP growth

The contribution to nominal GDP growth – unadjusted for inflation – was even larger, as EV prices held up year-on-year while the economy as a whole suffered from deflation. Investment in battery manufacturing rebounded after a fall in 2024.

The major contribution of EVs and batteries is illustrated in the figure below, which shows both the overall size of the clean-energy economy and the sectors that added the most to the rise from year to year.

Contribution of clean-energy sectors to China’s GDP and GDP growth, trillion yuan, 2022-2025. Source: CREA analysis for Carbon Brief.

The next largest subsector was clean-power generation, transmission and storage, which made up 40% of the contribution to GDP and 30% of the growth in 2025.

Investment in solar-panel supply chains, a major growth driver in 2022-23, continued to fall for the second year. This was in line with the government’s efforts to rein in overcapacity and “irrational” price competition in the sector.

Finally, rail transportation was responsible for 12% of the total economic output of the clean-energy sectors, but saw relatively muted growth year-on-year, with revenue up 3% and investment by 6%.

Note that the International Energy Agency (IEA) world energy investment report projected that China invested $627bn in clean energy in 2025, against $257bn in fossil fuels.

For the same sectors as the IEA report, this analysis puts the value of clean-energy investment in 2025 at a significantly more conservative $430bn. The higher figures in this analysis overall are therefore the result of wider sectoral coverage.

Electric vehicles and batteries

EVs and vehicle batteries were again the largest contributors to China’s clean-energy economy in 2025, making up an estimated 44% of value overall.

Of this total, the largest share of both total value and growth came from the production of battery EVs and plug-in hybrids, which expanded 29% year-on-year. This was followed by investment into EV manufacturing, which grew 18%, after slower growth rates in 2024.

Investment in battery manufacturing also rebounded after a drop in 2024, driven by new battery technology and strong demand from both domestic and international markets. Battery manufacturing investment grew by 35% year-on-year to 277bn yuan.

The share of electric vehicles (EVs) will have reached 12% of all vehicles on the road by the end of 2025, up from 9% a year earlier and less than 2% just five years ago.

The share of EVs in the sales of all new vehicles increased to 48%, from 41% in 2024, with passenger cars crossing the 50% threshold. In November, EV sales crossed the 60% mark in total sales and they continue to drive overall automotive sales growth, as shown below.

Production of combustion-engine vehicles and EVs in China, million units. EVs include battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids. Source: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers data via Wind Financial Terminal.

Electric trucks experienced a breakthrough as their market share rose from 8% in the first nine months of 2024 to 23% in the same period in 2025.

Policy support for EVs continues, for example, with a new policy aiming to nearly double charging infrastructure in the next three years.

Exports grew even faster than the domestic market, but the vast majority of EVs continue to be sold domestically. In 2025, China produced 16.6m EVs, rising 29% year-on-year. While exports accounted for only 21% or 3.4m EVs, they grew by 86% year-on-year. Top export destinations for Chinese EVs were western Europe, the Middle East and Latin America.

The value of batteries exported also grew rapidly by 41% year-on-year, becoming the third largest growth driver of the GDP. Battery exports largely went to western Europe, north America and south-east Asia.

In contrast with deflationary trends in the price of many clean-energy technologies, average EV prices have held up in 2025, with a slight increase in average price of new models, after discounts. This also means that the contribution of the EV industry to nominal GDP growth was even more significant, given that overall producer prices across the economy fell by 2.6%. Battery prices continued to drop.

Clean-power generation

The solar power sector generated 19% of the total value of the clean-energy industries in 2025, adding 2.9tn yuan ($41bn) to the national economy.

Within this, investment in new solar power plants, at 1.2tn yuan ($160bn), was the largest driver, followed by the value of solar technology exports and by the value of the power generated from solar. Investment in manufacturing continued to fall after the wave of capacity additions in 2023, reaching 0.5tn yuan ($72bn), down 23% year-on-year.

In 2025, China achieved another new record of wind and solar capacity additions. The country installed a total of 315GW solar and 119GW wind capacity, adding more solar and two times as much wind as the rest of the world combined.

Clean energy accounted for 90% of investment in power generation, with solar alone covering 50% of that. As a result, non-fossil power made up 42% of total power generation, up from 39% in 2024.

However, a new pricing policy for new solar and wind projects and modest targets for capacity growth have created uncertainty about whether the boom will continue.

Under the new policy, new clean-power generation has to compete on price against existing coal power in markets that place it at a disadvantage in some key ways.

At the same time, the electricity markets themselves are still being introduced and developed, creating investment uncertainty.

Investment in solar power generation increased year-on-year by 15%, but experienced a strong stop-and-go cycle. Developers rushed to finish projects ahead of the new pricing policy coming into force in June and then again towards the end of the year to finalise projects ahead of the end of the current 14th five-year plan.

Investment in the solar sector as a whole was stable year-on-year, with the decline in manufacturing capacity investment balanced by continued growth in power generation capacity additions. This helped shore up the utilisation of manufacturing plants, in line with the government’s aim to reduce “disorderly” price competition.

By late 2025, China’s solar manufacturing capacity reached an estimated 1,200GW per year, well ahead of the global capacity additions of around 650GW in 2025. Manufacturers can now produce far more solar panels than the global market can absorb, with fierce competition leading to historically low profitability.

China’s policymakers have sought to address the issue since mid-2024, warning against “involution”, passing regulations and convening a sector-wide meeting to put pressure on the industry. This is starting to yield results, with losses narrowing in the third quarter of 2025.

The volume of exports of solar panels and components reached a record high in 2025, growing 19% year-on-year. In particular, exports of cells and wafers increased rapidly by 94% and 52%, while panel exports grew only by 4%.

This reflects the growing diversification of solar-supply chains in the face of tariffs and with more countries around the world building out solar panel manufacturing capacity. The nominal value of exports fell 8%, however, due to a fall in average prices and a shift to exporting upstream intermediate products instead of finished panels.

Hydropower, wind and nuclear were responsible for 15% of the total value of the clean-energy sectors in 2025, adding some 2.2tn yuan ($310bn) to China’s GDP in 2025.

Nearly two-thirds of this (1.3tn yuan, $180bn) came from the value of power generation from hydropower, wind and nuclear, with investment in new power generation projects contributing the rest.

Power generation grew 33% from solar, 13% from wind, 3% from hydropower and 8% from nuclear.

Within power generation investment, solar remained the largest segment by value – as shown in the figure below – but wind-power generation projects were the largest contributor to growth, overtaking solar for the first time since 2020.

Value of new clean-power generation capacity, billion yuan, by year added. Source: CREA analysis for Carbon Brief.

In particular, offshore wind power capacity investment rebounded as expected, doubling in 2025 after a sharp drop in 2024.

Investment in nuclear projects continued to grow but remains smaller in total terms, at 17bn yuan. Investment in conventional hydropower continued to decline by 7%.

Electricity storage and grids

Electricity transmission and storage were responsible for 6% of the total value of the clean-energy sectors in 2025, accounting for 1.0 tn yuan ($140bn).

The most valuable sub-segment was investment in power grids, growing 6% in 2025 and reaching $90bn. This was followed by investment in energy storage, including pumped hydropower, grid-connected battery storage and hydrogen production.

Investment in grid-connected batteries saw the largest year-on-year growth, increasing by 50%, while investments in electrolysers also grew by 30%. The transmission of clean power increased an estimated 13%, due to rapid growth in clean-power generation.

China’s total electricity storage capacity reached more than 213GW, with battery storage capacity crossing 145GW and pumped hydro storage at 69GW. Some 66GW of battery storage capacity was added in 2025, up 52% year-on-year and accounting for more than 40% of global capacity additions.

Notably, capacity additions accelerated in the second half of the year, with 43GW added, compared with the first half, which saw 23GW of new capacity.

The battery storage market initially slowed after the renewable power pricing policy, which banned storage mandates after May, but this was quickly replaced by a “market-driven boom”. Provincial electricity spot markets, time-of-day tariffs and increasing curtailment of solar power all improved the economics of adding storage.

By the end of 2025, China’s top five solar manufacturers had all entered the battery storage market, making a shift in industry strategy.

Investment in pumped hydropower continued to increase, with 15GW of new capacity permitted in the first half of 2025 alone and 3GW entering operation.

Railways

Rail transportation made up 12% of the GDP contribution of the clean-energy sectors, with revenue from passenger and goods rail transportation the largest source of value. Most growth came from investment in rail infrastructure, which increased 6% year-on-year

The electrification of transport is not limited to EVs, as rail passenger, freight and investment volumes saw continued growth. The total length of China’s high-speed railway network reached 50,000km in 2025, making up more than 70% of the global high-speed total.

Energy efficiency

Investment in energy efficiency rebounded strongly in 2025. Measured by the aggregate turnover of large energy service companies (ESCOs), the market expanded by 17% year-on-year, returning to growth rates last seen during 2016-2020.

Total industry turnover has also recovered to its previous peak in 2021, signalling a clear turnaround after three years of weakness.

Industry projections now anticipate annual turnover reaching 1tn yuan in annual turnover by 2030, a target that had previously been expected to be met by 2025.

China’s ESCO market has evolved into the world’s largest. Investment within China’s ESCO market remains heavily concentrated in the buildings sector, which accounts for around 50% of total activity. Industrial applications make up a further 21%, while energy supply, demand-side flexibility and energy storage together account for approximately 16%.

Implications of China’s clean-energy bet

Ongoing investment of hundreds of billions of dollars into clean-energy manufacturing represents a gigantic economic and financial bet on a continuing global energy transition.

In addition to the domestic investment covered in this article, Chinese firms are making major investments in overseas manufacturing.

The clean-energy industries have played a crucial role in meeting China’s economic targets during the five-year period ending this year, delivering an estimated 40%, 25% and 37% of all GDP growth in 2023, 2024 and 2025, respectively.

However, the developments next year and beyond are unclear, particularly for solar power generation, with the new pricing system for renewable power generation leading to a short-term slowdown and creating major uncertainty, while central government targets have been set far below current rates of clean-electricity additions.

Investment in solar-power generation and solar manufacturing declined in the second half of the year, while investment in generation clocked growth for the full year, showing the risk to the industries under the current power market set-ups that favour coal-fired power.

A recent CREA survey of experts working on climate and energy issues in China found that the majority believe that economic and geopolitical challenges will make the “dual carbon” goals – and with that, clean-energy industries – only more important.

Local governments and state-owned enterprises will also influence the outlook for the sector. Their previous five-year plans played a key role in creating the gigantic wind and solar power “bases” that substantially exceeded the central government’s level of ambition.

Provincial governments also have a lot of leeway in implementing the new electricity markets and contracting systems for renewable power generation. The new five-year plans, to be published this year, will therefore be of major importance.

About the data

Reported investment expenditure and sales revenue has been used where available. When this is not available, estimates are based on physical volumes – gigawatts of capacity installed, number of vehicles sold – and unit costs or prices.

The contribution to real growth is tracked by adjusting for inflation using 2022-2023 prices.

All calculations and data sources are given in a worksheet.

Estimates include the contribution of clean-energy technologies to the demand for upstream inputs such as metals and chemicals.

This approach shows the contribution of the clean-energy sectors to driving economic activity, also outside the sectors themselves, and is appropriate for estimating how much lower economic growth would have been without growth in these sectors.

Double counting is avoided by only including non-overlapping points in value chains. For example, the value of EV production and investment in battery storage of electricity is included, but not the value of battery production for the domestic market, which is predominantly an input to these activities.

Similarly, the value of solar panels produced for the domestic market is not included, as it makes up a part of the value of solar power generating capacity installed in China. However, the value of solar panel and battery exports is included.

In 2025, there was a major divergence between two different measures of investment. The first, fixed asset investment, reportedly fell by 3.8%, the first drop in 35 years. In contrast, gross capital formation saw the slowest growth in that period but still inched up by 2%.

This analysis uses gross capital formation as the measure of investment, as it is the data point used for GDP accounting. However, the analysis is unable to account for changes in inventories, so the estimate of clean-energy investment is for fixed asset investment in the sectors.

The analysis does not explicitly account for the small and declining role of imports in producing clean-energy goods and services. This means that the results slightly overstate the contribution to GDP but understate the contribution to growth.

For example, one of the most important import dependencies that China has is for advanced computing chips for EVs. The value of the chips in a typical EV is $1,000 and China’s import dependency for these chips is 90%, which suggests that imported chips represent less than 3% of the value of EV production.

The estimates are likely to be conservative in some key respects. For example, Bloomberg New Energy Finance estimates “investment in the energy transition” in China in 2024 at $800bn. This estimate covers a nearly identical list of sectors to ours, but excludes manufacturing – the comparable number from our data is $600bn.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics says that the total value generated by automobile production and sales in 2023 was 11tn yuan. The estimate in this analysis for the value of EV sales in 2023 is 2.3tn yuan, or 20% of the total value of the industry, when EVs already made up 31% of vehicle production and the average selling prices for EVs was slightly higher than for internal combustion engine vehicles.