According to BloombergNEF’s New Energy Outlook 2025, global energy-related CO₂ emissions likely peaked last year because of record growth in clean energy. They predict a a structural decline in emissions might now begin.
Let’s explore how new energy trends and policies are shaping a cleaner future.
Global Clean Energy Growth Outpaces Demand
BloombergNEF’s updated Economic Transition Scenario (ETS) shows a major shift. For the first time, clean energy additions outpaced the growth in energy demand. This could lead to a 9% drop in global energy emissions by 2030, deepening to 13% by 2035 and 22% by 2050 compared to the 2024 peak.
Solar, wind, and hydropower are driving three-quarters of the emission cuts. The rest comes from transportation electrification, fuel switching, and better energy efficiency. While clean energy demand is booming, fossil fuel demand is starting a slow but steady decline, expected to continue over the next 25 years.

Big Players: U.S., China, and Europe Behind the Change
Major economies like the United States, China, and Europe are leading the way. Countries under the Paris Agreement are preparing new climate targets for 2035, due by early 2025.
BloombergNEF notes that Australia, the EU, and South Korea would need to slash emissions by around 70% relative to earlier baselines to stay on track for a 1.5°C limit. Meanwhile, India can still grow its emissions by 27% and remain aligned with global goals.
Early movers include Brazil and the UK, both submitting 2035 targets that match net-zero ambitions. Japan’s targets fall somewhere between BloombergNEF’s base and net-zero scenarios.
Furthermore, emissions are expected to rise in Vietnam and Indonesia, while Africa and the Middle East may see emissions plateau rather than sharply decline.

US Energy Transition Progress Amid Challenges
In the United States, energy-related emissions are forecasted to fall by 16% by 2035 and 29% by 2050 compared to 2024. Power sector emissions alone could decline by 22% by 2035.
However, sectors like road transportation are complicating the outlook. Rising travel and slower-than-expected EV adoption are pushing transport emissions higher. Meanwhile, oil refining and natural gas-fired electricity are expanding in some regions.
The clean energy buildout remains strong. US wind capacity is expected to double to 321 gigawatts by 2035, and solar could triple to 692 gigawatts.

Additionally, battery storage will grow from 29GW to 175GW. Even so, wind forecasts were cut by 15% due to higher costs and project delays, while solar and battery forecasts rose by 15% and 28%. This was the outcome of lower costs and policy incentives from the Inflation Reduction Act.
There are risks ahead. New tariffs on imported solar panels and batteries could slow adoption, potentially cutting future battery installations by 27% and solar by 7% by 2050 if policies are not carefully managed.
Data Centers Driving Massive New Demand
One of the newest challenges is the exploding electricity demand from data centers, fueled by AI, cloud computing, and crypto mining. Global electricity needs are projected to rise 75% by 2050 from 2022 levels.
By 2035, data centers could consume 1,200 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity annually, rising to 3,700 TWh by 2050, which will be nearly 9% of total global electricity demand. And meeting this surge will require around 362GW of new power capacity by 2035.
Although most of this will come from renewables, fossil fuels could still supply about 64% of data center power by 2035 unless policies shift significantly.
Renewables and EVs Shaping the Future
Despite challenges like higher interest rates and rising costs, renewables and electric vehicles (EVs) are thriving. BloombergNEF projects that renewables will supply 67% of global electricity by 2050, up from 29% today. In contrast, fossil fuels’ share will shrink from 58% to just 25%.
Solar and wind alone will make up two-thirds of global electricity generation by 2050. In the transportation sector, annual EV sales are set to jump from 17.2 million in 2024 to 42 million by 2030.
- By 2050, two-thirds of the global passenger vehicle fleet will be electric, cutting oil demand for road transport by about 40%.
Fossil Fuels: Slow Decline Begins
Fossil fuels are not disappearing overnight but are clearly losing ground, even though the Trump government has a strong inclination towards them.
Oil demand is expected to peak around 2032 at 104 million barrels per day, before declining to 88 million barrels per day by 2050. Aviation and petrochemical sectors will drive most of the remaining oil consumption.
More significantly, coal use is forecasted to fall rapidly as it loses out to cheaper and cleaner alternatives. From now until 2035, global coal consumption drops by 25%. More precisely, it can decline by about 2% in 2025, mainly due to the drastic phasing out in China
Gas demand will stay relatively steady through 2050 but will eventually start falling as renewables expand.

This research shows that the surge in clean energy installations during 2024 may have triggered the first real, long-term decline in global emissions. Technologies like solar, wind, EVs, and improved energy efficiency are reshaping industries and creating real hope for a low-carbon future.
Challenges such as soaring data center demands, uneven sector transitions, and political uncertainty remain. However, with strong momentum behind clean energy and supportive policies, achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 is increasingly within reach. The green transition isn’t just coming, but it’s already here.
The post Global Clean Energy Growth Surpasses Demand: Is Net-Zero 2050 Closer Than Ever? appeared first on Carbon Credits.
Carbon Footprint
Insetting vs Offsetting: Which Actually Counts Toward Your Scope 3 Targets
The accounting differences that decide whether your nature investment shows up in inventory, in BVCM, or nowhere at all.
The question reaches a procurement team about three weeks before the next sustainability committee meeting. Someone has read about insetting. Someone else has just signed off on an offset purchase. The CSO wants to know if the two are interchangeable. The answer is no, and the GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard is the reason why.
This article walks through what each term means at audit-grade specificity, what the standards actually say about how each gets counted, and how to decide which tool fits which target. The insetting vs offsetting question is one of the most-searched in corporate climate strategy, and one of the most poorly answered. By the end of this piece, you should be able to brief a committee on the difference without notes.
The two definitions, in plain English
Offsetting means buying carbon credits generated outside your value chain and retiring them against your residual emissions. The reduction happens somewhere else, financed by you, and the credit is the receipt.
Insetting means investing in emission reductions or removals inside your own value chain, typically with suppliers, where the reduction is directly linked to the products and services you buy. The reduction happens inside the boundary of your Scope 3 inventory, and the accounting treatment is fundamentally different.
The shorthand from the University of Oxford’s Nature-based Insetting Initiative is useful: insetting is what you do with the supply chain you have; offsetting is what you do with the supply chain you do not have.
What the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard actually says
The GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard, finalised in 2024 after a multi-year pilot, sets the rules for how land-based emission reductions and removals enter corporate inventories. The Standard distinguishes between inventory accounting (Scope 1, 2, and 3) and project or intervention accounting (a separate methodology for crediting).
For insetting, the practical implication is that supplier-level interventions, when properly measured and attributed, can reduce your Scope 3 category 1 (purchased goods and services) emissions in your inventory. The reduction is not a credit retired against the inventory; it is a lower inventory number, period.
For offsetting, the credit is retired separately. It can be reported as a contribution toward a net-zero claim under the SBTi Beyond Value Chain Mitigation framework or as part of a VCMI Carbon Integrity claim, but it does not lower the inventory number.
A practical consequence: if your Science Based Target requires a 50% absolute reduction in Scope 3 emissions by 2030, insetting moves you toward the target. Offsetting does not. This single point of difference reshapes the procurement decision.
When insetting counts toward Scope 3 (and when it does not)
Insetting counts toward Scope 3 only when several conditions are met:
- The intervention must occur with an entity in your value chain.
- The emissions reduction or removal must be measured against a defensible baseline.
- The reduction must be attributed to your share of that supplier’s output, not double-counted with other buyers.
- It must follow the inventory accounting rules in the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard, not the project accounting rules used to generate credits.
The most common failure mode is double counting. If your supplier sells the same reduction as a credit on the voluntary market and also reports it to you as a Scope 3 reduction, the math breaks. The Standard requires you to address this risk, typically by purchasing and retiring the supplier-issued credit as part of your inventory or by contractual provisions that prevent the supplier from selling the reduction twice.
When insetting does not count toward Scope 3: when the intervention sits with a supplier you do not buy from, when the baseline is not defensible, when the attribution is unclear, or when the documentation does not survive audit. Those cases default to Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, which is still useful but operates on a different ledger.
The procurement and supplier engagement question
Insetting is harder than offsetting. That is the unfashionable truth most buyers eventually confront. Offsetting is a transaction; insetting is a relationship.
To run an insetting program, you need supplier mapping precise enough to know which farms or facilities sit at which Scope 3 boundary. You need an engagement model that gets suppliers to participate, which usually requires multi-year commitments and shared economics. You need an MRV architecture that measures the right things and produces audit-ready documentation. And you need a contractual structure that prevents double counting and protects both sides.
The trade-off you receive in return is significant. Reductions count against your inventory rather than your residual. Supplier relationships deepen, which protects sourcing continuity. Yield and quality improvements often follow regenerative interventions, which reduces your input cost over time. And the regulatory file, under CSRD, CSDDD, EUDR, and the SBTi FLAG Guidance, is materially stronger.
Choosing the right tool for the right target
A practical decision rule. If your target is a science-based Scope 3 reduction and you operate in a FLAG sector or source FLAG commodities, insetting is the structurally correct tool. If your target is a net-zero claim that includes neutralising hard-to-abate residual emissions outside your value chain, BVCM via high-integrity offsets is the structurally correct tool. Most companies with material Scope 3 exposure need both, in different proportions, sequenced over time.
The sequencing matters. Insetting takes longer to stand up but produces a permanent reduction in the inventory. Offsetting can be transacted faster but does not change the inventory and now sits under tighter claim restrictions. Treat them as complementary tools with different jobs, not as substitutes. The Accountability Framework Initiative and the IUCN Global Standard for Nature-based Solutions both provide useful guardrails for the insetting side, with biodiversity, human rights, and benefit-sharing requirements that go beyond carbon math.
If you are mapping a Scope 3 reduction roadmap and need to scope which interventions count toward your inventory versus which sit in Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, the carbon and sustainability experts at Carbon Credit Capital can help you structure a nature-based supply chain investment program that fits your FLAG exposure, your target architecture, and your audit horizon. Schedule a consultation.
Carbon Footprint
Net zero needs nature: a carbon credit guide
Net zero is often described as a balancing act: cut what you can, account for the rest, and reach zero on the ledger. That framing is useful, but it leaves something out. It treats every tonne of carbon as interchangeable and every route to zero as equally sound, while the science tells a more specific story.
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Carbon Footprint
Deforestation in Malawi: causes and solutions
Malawi has lost a striking share of its forests over the past three decades. Woodlands that once covered well over a third of the country now cover less than a quarter, and the pressure on what remains is increasing. Behind those figures sit two practical questions: what is driving the loss, and what reverses it?
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