Many investors are puzzled by the plunging lithium stock prices, especially considering the anticipated long-term demand. Let’s look into why this is the case and what is the market outlook for 2024/25.
The Steep Decline in Lithium Prices
The current decline in lithium prices can be primarily attributed to the slowing growth of electric vehicle sales in China. This is coupled with the broader slowdown in the Chinese economy.

As demand remains sluggish at previous pricing levels and supply surpasses demand, prices have inevitably fallen.
Lithium carbonate prices have experienced a significant decline in China. They dropped from a record high of $81,360 per tonne in November 2022 to $20,782 per tonne in the current month. This marks the lowest level in two years, reflecting a 67% decrease year-on-year.
In response to the plummeting prices, Chinese refining companies are taking measures such as cutting production or suspending operations.
The sharp decline in lithium carbonate prices represents a nearly 75% correction. Market analysts attributed this to a series of negative catalysts that have suppressed lithium prices.
What Makes Lithium Price Volatile?
It’s essential to recognize that lithium stock prices have historically been volatile in the short term due to various factors.
Lithium is a specialized commodity produced in limited quantities, making supply disruptions a significant factor in price fluctuations. Moreover, changes in consumer trends, particularly in consumer electronics and EVs, can swiftly impact demand and supply.
The lithium market is also influenced by geopolitical conditions and regulations, which can alter demand dynamics. Also, advancements in technology have introduced new extraction techniques, affecting total supply and prices.
There is also potential for increased involvement from major oil and gas companies. This is evidenced by recent statements from CEOs of Exxon and Chevron expressing interest in the lithium industry.
Additionally, a large private energy company Lowry is advising is exploring investments in lithium assets to support the global energy transition.
Although China has historically dominated lithium supply from Australia, the rise of Western converters is expected to redirect more Australian supply to Europe and North America. This shift may challenge China’s market dominance as the Western supply chain expands.
Point in case is Canada positioning itself to contribute to meeting the North American lithium requirements. This is where a junior Canadian lithium company, Li-FT Power (LIFT: LIFFF), comes into play.
The company focuses on consolidating and advancing hard rock lithium pegmatite projects in Canada, especially in known lithium districts. Li-FT Power is committed to advancing the exploration and development of high-quality lithium assets in the country.
Powered by Lithium: The Electrifying Role of EVs
Strategic investments to secure future lithium supply are on the rise. Major automakers and lithium producers are already committing over $1 billion in 2023 alone.
For instance, GM invested $650 million in Lithium Americas, while Albemarle allocated $110 million to lithium developer Patriot Battery Metals. This trend is expected to continue as companies seek to safeguard their access to raw materials for batteries.
The EV market is still in its early stages, with significant room for growth. As EV penetration increases globally, demand for lithium will outstrip supply, especially as EVs become mainstream.

Since batteries constitute a significant portion of EV expenses, this presents an opportunity for EV manufacturers to either increase profits per vehicle sold or, more likely, reduce prices to remain competitive as rivals do the same. Lower prices tend to attract more buyers, leading to increased demand for lithium.
Consequently, as the current oversupply diminishes, the price of lithium is likely to rebound. This cycle of falling prices leading to increased demand, followed by a reduction in supply, underscores the cyclical nature of the lithium market.
Short-Term Challenges and Long-Term Outlook
Despite short-term volatility, the long-term forecast for lithium remains positive. Lithium is crucial for decarbonization efforts, especially in the EV sector.
The global demand can surpass 2.4 million metric tons of lithium carbonate by 2030, doubling the 2025 forecast. BloombergNEF projects nearly a 5x increase in global lithium demand by the end of the decade, driven by rising battery demand for electric vehicles.
In the short-term, Goldman Sachs maintains a pessimistic outlook for lithium prices in 2024. The brokerage firm projects further declines compared to current levels.
The broker anticipates this downward pressure in lithium prices this year due to oversupply.
Initially predicting a return to market deficit in 2024, analysts now suggest a longer timeline, with the lithium market potentially bottoming out in 2025. Thus, Goldman Sachs maintains a bearish view on the market, adjusting their 12-month targets downward for China Lithium Carbonate and CME Asia CIF Lithium Hydroxide.
Known for its accurate forecasts, Goldman Sachs estimates the following prices for 2024:
- Lithium carbonate: $13,377 per tonne
- Lithium hydroxide: $14,263 per tonne
- Spodumene 6%: $1,250 per tonne
As per S&P Global estimation, lithium prices will start to stabilize beginning in 2025 as surplus narrows down. From there, prices would start to rise up again as seen below.

Amid current market challenges, the commitment to global net zero emissions by 2050 is expected to drive continued demand for lithium. More notably, long-term prospects remain strong fueled by growing EV adoption and global decarbonization efforts.
Disclosure: Owners, members, directors and employees of carboncredits.com have/may have stock or option position in any of the companies mentioned: LIFFF
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Carbon Footprint
Insetting vs Offsetting: Which Actually Counts Toward Your Scope 3 Targets
The accounting differences that decide whether your nature investment shows up in inventory, in BVCM, or nowhere at all.
The question reaches a procurement team about three weeks before the next sustainability committee meeting. Someone has read about insetting. Someone else has just signed off on an offset purchase. The CSO wants to know if the two are interchangeable. The answer is no, and the GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard is the reason why.
This article walks through what each term means at audit-grade specificity, what the standards actually say about how each gets counted, and how to decide which tool fits which target. The insetting vs offsetting question is one of the most-searched in corporate climate strategy, and one of the most poorly answered. By the end of this piece, you should be able to brief a committee on the difference without notes.
The two definitions, in plain English
Offsetting means buying carbon credits generated outside your value chain and retiring them against your residual emissions. The reduction happens somewhere else, financed by you, and the credit is the receipt.
Insetting means investing in emission reductions or removals inside your own value chain, typically with suppliers, where the reduction is directly linked to the products and services you buy. The reduction happens inside the boundary of your Scope 3 inventory, and the accounting treatment is fundamentally different.
The shorthand from the University of Oxford’s Nature-based Insetting Initiative is useful: insetting is what you do with the supply chain you have; offsetting is what you do with the supply chain you do not have.
What the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard actually says
The GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard, finalised in 2024 after a multi-year pilot, sets the rules for how land-based emission reductions and removals enter corporate inventories. The Standard distinguishes between inventory accounting (Scope 1, 2, and 3) and project or intervention accounting (a separate methodology for crediting).
For insetting, the practical implication is that supplier-level interventions, when properly measured and attributed, can reduce your Scope 3 category 1 (purchased goods and services) emissions in your inventory. The reduction is not a credit retired against the inventory; it is a lower inventory number, period.
For offsetting, the credit is retired separately. It can be reported as a contribution toward a net-zero claim under the SBTi Beyond Value Chain Mitigation framework or as part of a VCMI Carbon Integrity claim, but it does not lower the inventory number.
A practical consequence: if your Science Based Target requires a 50% absolute reduction in Scope 3 emissions by 2030, insetting moves you toward the target. Offsetting does not. This single point of difference reshapes the procurement decision.
When insetting counts toward Scope 3 (and when it does not)
Insetting counts toward Scope 3 only when several conditions are met:
- The intervention must occur with an entity in your value chain.
- The emissions reduction or removal must be measured against a defensible baseline.
- The reduction must be attributed to your share of that supplier’s output, not double-counted with other buyers.
- It must follow the inventory accounting rules in the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard, not the project accounting rules used to generate credits.
The most common failure mode is double counting. If your supplier sells the same reduction as a credit on the voluntary market and also reports it to you as a Scope 3 reduction, the math breaks. The Standard requires you to address this risk, typically by purchasing and retiring the supplier-issued credit as part of your inventory or by contractual provisions that prevent the supplier from selling the reduction twice.
When insetting does not count toward Scope 3: when the intervention sits with a supplier you do not buy from, when the baseline is not defensible, when the attribution is unclear, or when the documentation does not survive audit. Those cases default to Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, which is still useful but operates on a different ledger.
The procurement and supplier engagement question
Insetting is harder than offsetting. That is the unfashionable truth most buyers eventually confront. Offsetting is a transaction; insetting is a relationship.
To run an insetting program, you need supplier mapping precise enough to know which farms or facilities sit at which Scope 3 boundary. You need an engagement model that gets suppliers to participate, which usually requires multi-year commitments and shared economics. You need an MRV architecture that measures the right things and produces audit-ready documentation. And you need a contractual structure that prevents double counting and protects both sides.
The trade-off you receive in return is significant. Reductions count against your inventory rather than your residual. Supplier relationships deepen, which protects sourcing continuity. Yield and quality improvements often follow regenerative interventions, which reduces your input cost over time. And the regulatory file, under CSRD, CSDDD, EUDR, and the SBTi FLAG Guidance, is materially stronger.
Choosing the right tool for the right target
A practical decision rule. If your target is a science-based Scope 3 reduction and you operate in a FLAG sector or source FLAG commodities, insetting is the structurally correct tool. If your target is a net-zero claim that includes neutralising hard-to-abate residual emissions outside your value chain, BVCM via high-integrity offsets is the structurally correct tool. Most companies with material Scope 3 exposure need both, in different proportions, sequenced over time.
The sequencing matters. Insetting takes longer to stand up but produces a permanent reduction in the inventory. Offsetting can be transacted faster but does not change the inventory and now sits under tighter claim restrictions. Treat them as complementary tools with different jobs, not as substitutes. The Accountability Framework Initiative and the IUCN Global Standard for Nature-based Solutions both provide useful guardrails for the insetting side, with biodiversity, human rights, and benefit-sharing requirements that go beyond carbon math.
If you are mapping a Scope 3 reduction roadmap and need to scope which interventions count toward your inventory versus which sit in Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, the carbon and sustainability experts at Carbon Credit Capital can help you structure a nature-based supply chain investment program that fits your FLAG exposure, your target architecture, and your audit horizon. Schedule a consultation.
Carbon Footprint
Net zero needs nature: a carbon credit guide
Net zero is often described as a balancing act: cut what you can, account for the rest, and reach zero on the ledger. That framing is useful, but it leaves something out. It treats every tonne of carbon as interchangeable and every route to zero as equally sound, while the science tells a more specific story.
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Carbon Footprint
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