According to an analysis by Global Witness, over 50 oil and gas companies signing the decarbonization pact at the COP28 climate summit are projected to emit over 150 billion metric tons of climate pollution by 2050. That represents about 62% of the remaining carbon dioxide budget to stay below the 1.5°C temperature rise limit.
The data used in the analysis covers only crude oil and gas. It didn’t include figures for NGL and condensate, which makes the production estimates conservative.
The analysts based their carbon budget calculations using the equivalent of 250 billion tonnes CO2 equivalent to retain a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5C, which is according to the latest peer-reviewed research.
The dataset includes all assets that are presently in production, under development (approved but haven’t commenced yet), discovery, and undiscovered. The data covers operating production from 2023 to 2050.
Unraveling the Hidden Impact of Oil & Gas Climate Pledge
The Oil and Gas Decarbonization Charter was introduced at COP28 by Saudi Arabia and conference president Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber. Al Jaber emphasized its significance, claiming that companies representing over 40% of global oil production committed to achieving net zero. The pact also commits to end methane emission and halt routine flaring by 2030.
Saudi Arabia’s Aramco and the UAE’s ADNOC, alongside 29 more national oil companies, inked the non-binding charter. PetroChina, ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies, Petrobras, and Shell have signed the agreement, though their agreement is only voluntary.
Direct GHG emissions of largest oil companies in 2022

The pact signifies a promising climate commitment from the oil majors. However, a significant loophole exists, as highlighted by Global Witness.
The charter exclusively addresses emissions directly released by those companies. They leave out the considerable impact of their products’ use, known as Scope 3 emissions. This pollution source comprises up to 90% of the oil and gas’ total carbon emissions.
Global Witness used data from Rystad Energy to look at the production plans of the pact’s signatories, including major state and private companies.
The analysts found out that the companies would produce 265 billion barrels of oil and 26.7 billion cubic meters of gas by 2050. This would result in 156 billion metric tons of CO2 equivalent emissions, or approximately 62% of the remaining carbon budget.

Among the companies that signed the pact, those with the largest carbon footprints through 2050 include ADNOC and Saudi Aramco. Together, they have a combined production of 136.4 billion barrels of oil and 5.5 billion cubic meters of gas between them.
Their projected production would emit more than a quarter of the remaining carbon budget – 64.7 billion tonnes of CO2.
ExxonMobil, Equinor, TotalEnergies, Eni, and Shell also have plans to emit as much as the European Union does in 15 years – 38.6 billion tonnes of CO2.
The Climate Challenges Beyond COP28 Promises
The findings further stir climate activists’ greenwashing claims against oil and gas companies. They have expressed concerns about fossil fuel companies prioritizing profit extraction over environmental preservation, reinforcing the perception of greenwashing.
In another analysis, the COP28 draft dropped mention of fossil fuel phase out. It instead advances the ramping up of renewable energy and efficiency measures. Campaigners stated that governments must do something urgent and concrete to phase out fossil fuels.
Concerns were raised about the portion of the industry’s emissions reduction commitments compared to the environmental impact of their products. A climate campaigner, Cara Jenkinson, Cities Manager at Ashden, remarked that:
“The only way to slash emissions from usage of oil and gas is to cut demand – governments across the world must speed up their electrification plans, with poorer nations being supported to bypass fossil fuel vehicles and ramp up clean renewable energy production.”
Responding to the concern, a spokesperson from Shell said that:
“While Shell’s targets are more comprehensive and ambitious than the Charter requirements, for example with carbon intensity targets that also cover the use of our energy products, we want to share our experience and learn as others in the industry move further along their journeys too.”
In the shadow of climate commitments at COP28, the analysis by Global Witness reveals a stark reality – oil and gas companies are to burn through 62% of the remaining carbon budget. The results raise critical questions about the industry’s true environmental costs.
The post Oil & Gas Firms to Emit 150B Metric Tons of Carbon Pollution appeared first on Carbon Credits.
Carbon Footprint
Insetting vs Offsetting: Which Actually Counts Toward Your Scope 3 Targets
The accounting differences that decide whether your nature investment shows up in inventory, in BVCM, or nowhere at all.
The question reaches a procurement team about three weeks before the next sustainability committee meeting. Someone has read about insetting. Someone else has just signed off on an offset purchase. The CSO wants to know if the two are interchangeable. The answer is no, and the GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard is the reason why.
This article walks through what each term means at audit-grade specificity, what the standards actually say about how each gets counted, and how to decide which tool fits which target. The insetting vs offsetting question is one of the most-searched in corporate climate strategy, and one of the most poorly answered. By the end of this piece, you should be able to brief a committee on the difference without notes.
The two definitions, in plain English
Offsetting means buying carbon credits generated outside your value chain and retiring them against your residual emissions. The reduction happens somewhere else, financed by you, and the credit is the receipt.
Insetting means investing in emission reductions or removals inside your own value chain, typically with suppliers, where the reduction is directly linked to the products and services you buy. The reduction happens inside the boundary of your Scope 3 inventory, and the accounting treatment is fundamentally different.
The shorthand from the University of Oxford’s Nature-based Insetting Initiative is useful: insetting is what you do with the supply chain you have; offsetting is what you do with the supply chain you do not have.
What the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard actually says
The GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard, finalised in 2024 after a multi-year pilot, sets the rules for how land-based emission reductions and removals enter corporate inventories. The Standard distinguishes between inventory accounting (Scope 1, 2, and 3) and project or intervention accounting (a separate methodology for crediting).
For insetting, the practical implication is that supplier-level interventions, when properly measured and attributed, can reduce your Scope 3 category 1 (purchased goods and services) emissions in your inventory. The reduction is not a credit retired against the inventory; it is a lower inventory number, period.
For offsetting, the credit is retired separately. It can be reported as a contribution toward a net-zero claim under the SBTi Beyond Value Chain Mitigation framework or as part of a VCMI Carbon Integrity claim, but it does not lower the inventory number.
A practical consequence: if your Science Based Target requires a 50% absolute reduction in Scope 3 emissions by 2030, insetting moves you toward the target. Offsetting does not. This single point of difference reshapes the procurement decision.
When insetting counts toward Scope 3 (and when it does not)
Insetting counts toward Scope 3 only when several conditions are met:
- The intervention must occur with an entity in your value chain.
- The emissions reduction or removal must be measured against a defensible baseline.
- The reduction must be attributed to your share of that supplier’s output, not double-counted with other buyers.
- It must follow the inventory accounting rules in the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard, not the project accounting rules used to generate credits.
The most common failure mode is double counting. If your supplier sells the same reduction as a credit on the voluntary market and also reports it to you as a Scope 3 reduction, the math breaks. The Standard requires you to address this risk, typically by purchasing and retiring the supplier-issued credit as part of your inventory or by contractual provisions that prevent the supplier from selling the reduction twice.
When insetting does not count toward Scope 3: when the intervention sits with a supplier you do not buy from, when the baseline is not defensible, when the attribution is unclear, or when the documentation does not survive audit. Those cases default to Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, which is still useful but operates on a different ledger.
The procurement and supplier engagement question
Insetting is harder than offsetting. That is the unfashionable truth most buyers eventually confront. Offsetting is a transaction; insetting is a relationship.
To run an insetting program, you need supplier mapping precise enough to know which farms or facilities sit at which Scope 3 boundary. You need an engagement model that gets suppliers to participate, which usually requires multi-year commitments and shared economics. You need an MRV architecture that measures the right things and produces audit-ready documentation. And you need a contractual structure that prevents double counting and protects both sides.
The trade-off you receive in return is significant. Reductions count against your inventory rather than your residual. Supplier relationships deepen, which protects sourcing continuity. Yield and quality improvements often follow regenerative interventions, which reduces your input cost over time. And the regulatory file, under CSRD, CSDDD, EUDR, and the SBTi FLAG Guidance, is materially stronger.
Choosing the right tool for the right target
A practical decision rule. If your target is a science-based Scope 3 reduction and you operate in a FLAG sector or source FLAG commodities, insetting is the structurally correct tool. If your target is a net-zero claim that includes neutralising hard-to-abate residual emissions outside your value chain, BVCM via high-integrity offsets is the structurally correct tool. Most companies with material Scope 3 exposure need both, in different proportions, sequenced over time.
The sequencing matters. Insetting takes longer to stand up but produces a permanent reduction in the inventory. Offsetting can be transacted faster but does not change the inventory and now sits under tighter claim restrictions. Treat them as complementary tools with different jobs, not as substitutes. The Accountability Framework Initiative and the IUCN Global Standard for Nature-based Solutions both provide useful guardrails for the insetting side, with biodiversity, human rights, and benefit-sharing requirements that go beyond carbon math.
If you are mapping a Scope 3 reduction roadmap and need to scope which interventions count toward your inventory versus which sit in Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, the carbon and sustainability experts at Carbon Credit Capital can help you structure a nature-based supply chain investment program that fits your FLAG exposure, your target architecture, and your audit horizon. Schedule a consultation.
Carbon Footprint
Net zero needs nature: a carbon credit guide
Net zero is often described as a balancing act: cut what you can, account for the rest, and reach zero on the ledger. That framing is useful, but it leaves something out. It treats every tonne of carbon as interchangeable and every route to zero as equally sound, while the science tells a more specific story.
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Carbon Footprint
Deforestation in Malawi: causes and solutions
Malawi has lost a striking share of its forests over the past three decades. Woodlands that once covered well over a third of the country now cover less than a quarter, and the pressure on what remains is increasing. Behind those figures sit two practical questions: what is driving the loss, and what reverses it?
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