Christopher Wright is the principal analyst at CarbonBridge, a decarbonisation consulting firm.

The Santa Marta Conference has rightly been hailed as a pivotal opportunity to re-imagine the world’s relationship with fossil fuels. However, the sixty-odd countries gathered this week represent only 15% of the world’s total fossil fuel production, and a small but critical handful of nations in attendance remain deeply committed to expanding their fossil fuel output.

While the discussions at Santa Marta have focused on overcoming economic dependency on fossil fuels, the reality on the ground for many of these countries is that fossil fuel production continues to rise. Despite the rapid global growth of renewable electrification, fossil fuel output has similarly increased.

This trend is evident even among the countries gathered at Santa Marta, where according to a CarbonBridge analysis, net fossil fuel production has grown over the last five years, particularly driven by expansions in oil and gas output.

Across all countries gathered in Santa Marta, approximately 14 countries are responsible for the lion’s share of oil production, which has increased by 4% since 2020. Similarly, just eight countries account for 96% of the conference’s natural gas production, which has collectively grown by 5% over the past decade.

While coal production has seen a slight decline since 2020, recent production increases in Turkey and Pakistan, with renewed growth in Australia, could similarly see increased production in the near future.

However, most surprisingly, only six countries present at Santa Marta account for over 80% of fossil fuel production among all nations in attendance: Canada, Australia, Brasil, Mexico, Norway and Nigeria.

For these nations, the transition journey ahead is complex. All six countries are aiming to significantly expand renewable energy capacities, and Norway stands as a global leader in electric vehicle adoption.

However, fossil fuel production is not merely a domestic concern for these countries; it plays a central role in their international exports, and remains a foundational pillar of their economic utures. In fact, a deeper look into trends and regulatory frameworks across this suite of countries indicates that their current trajectories are geared toward continued fossil fuel expansion.

Canada

In Canada, oil and gas production continues to climb, with 2025 marking a year of record highs. Oil production rose by 4% to reach 5.34 million barrels per day (MMb/d), while natural gas production surged by 3.4%, reaching 8.2 billion gigajoules. And only yesterday, Shell made a $13.5 bln bet on Canada’s oil and gas future.

Led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, Canada is set to implement an industrial carbon pricing scheme and could double Canada’s clean energy capacity over the next two years. However, he has also been vocal about his support for new oil and gas expansions, new pipeline developments, and has even set a goal to transform Canada’s largely non-existent liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry over the next 15 years, with aspirations to rival the production capacity of the US by 2040.

Brazil

Brazil’s state-owned oil company Petrobras has committed to a massive USD $109 billion expansion of their production to 2030. This hefty investment follows a record 11% production increase in 2025, with Petrobras pumping out 3.77 million barrels per day. Despite hosting the UN climate negotiations last year and generating 89% of the country’s electricity from low-carbon sources in 2025, Brazil’s drive for fossil fuel expansion highlights the gap between national climate transitions and critical export opportunities.

Australia

Australia, the world’s second-largest coal exporter, faces a similar dislocation between its domestic electricity transition and its export economy, as it prepares to assume a leadership role at COP31. Australia is home to the world’s highest solar power per capita and leads the world in home battery rollouts. However, it remains critically dependent on fossil fuel exports, even as questions arise over long-term demand. Currently, gas export volumes, which dipped in 2025, are projected to reach record levels by 2027; pending legal action against the Barossa, Scarborough, and Browse expansions. While thermal coal production is projected to decline slightly through 2030, increases in metallurgical coal are expected to offset these declines, in part due to recent pro-mining regulatory shifts in Queensland.

Mexico

Mexico is one of three major oil producers that make up over 60% of the conference’s annual oil production. However, its oil industry recorded the largest output declines of any major producer in Santa Marta over the last decade. The state-owned oil company Pemex, currently carries close to $100 billion in debt, and was granted $12bn in debt support from the government last year. When combined with import shifts from the US, and potential competition from Venezuela, there is a real chance that Mexico’s oil production could decline further going forward. However, the goal right now from Pemex and the Mexican government, is to increase current production by close to 10% by 2030.

Nigeria

Nigeria’s national oil company, NNPCL, has similarly seen declines over the last decade, but is now pursuing a $60 billion partnership to expand its oil and gas output and solidify its role as one of Africa’s largest fossil fuel producers. This comes even as the federal government was granted $800,000 to explore opportunities to transition away from oil expansion last year.

Norway

In contrast to these countries, Norway stands as one of the few major oil producers at the conference projected to decrease its fossil fuel output. With a forecasted 15% reduction in oil and gas production by 2030, Norway appears to be taking early steps toward a transition. However, the decline in production is more a reflection of the age of its existing oil fields than a proactive shift in government policy. Despite acknowledging the need to diversify its economy, the Norwegian government continues to explore new oil and gas fields, plans to launch new licensing rounds, and hopes to spur on further oil and gas investments, which have almost doubled since 2017.

For these nations, the road ahead is fraught with complexities. While the Santa Marta conference offers an opportunity for dialogue, and renewable energies will undoubtedly continue to expand, the largest fossil fuel producers gathered in Colombia remain structurally focused on growth, rather than phase-downs.

Dollars and cents continue to drive economic decisions, especially in the midst of a global energy crisis. Despite growing calls to utilise this opportunity to reshape development pathways, countries most economically embedded in existing energy markets will need far more convincing, before turning their backs on billions in fossil fuel revenues.

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Six nations at Santa Marta could shape fossil fuel futures

A group of leading climate scientists has called on governments to develop roadmaps for phasing out fossil fuels “anchored in science and justice”, alongside the launch of a separate panel of experts that will give scientific advice on how to navigate the energy transition.

Unveiled on Friday in Santa Marta, Colombia, a set of a dozen policy recommendations, summarising the Santa Marta Academic Dialogue, is intended to feed into ministerial discussions on equitable ways to reduce dependence on coal, oil and gas during next week’s “First Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels”.

The policy insights urge countries to create “whole-of-government” plans to “dismantle legal, financial and political barriers” to the energy transition.

Sixty countries head to Santa Marta to cement coalition for fossil fuel transition

Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), said the push for a global transition away from fossil fuels offers “a light in the tunnel” during a “very dark moment” of geopolitical conflict and climate extremes.

“Science is here to serve,” Rockström told a packed Santa Marta Theatre. “We’re today launching the Science Panel for the Global Energy Transition (SPGET) as a service, as a global common good for all countries, all sectors, all regions to connect to the best science enabling a transition away from fossil fuels.”

Draft roadmap for Colombia

Colombian Environment Minister Irene Vélez Torres said the new SPGET panel “addresses a longstanding shortcoming” in international climate science, by creating a scientific body dedicated solely to overcoming the world’s reliance on fossil fuels.

“It’s a first-of-its-kind, designed to organise in the next five years the scientific evidence that allows cities, regions, countries and coalitions to take the big leap,” Vélez told the event in Santa Marta.

As an example of how countries can move forward – even when their economies are closely tied to the production and use of dirty energy – a group of European scientists presented a draft roadmap to phase out fossil fuels in Colombia, with inputs from the Colombian government. It will be used as a basis for further consultation in the Latin American nation to define the way forward.

To phase out fossil fuels, developing countries need exit route from “debt trap”

Piers Forster, director of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds and co‑author of the roadmap, said it shows “a clear pathway to economic and societal benefit”, with average annual investment of $10.6 billion producing net economic benefits of $23 billion per year by 2050.

The document says fossil fuels in Colombia can be phased out through energy efficiency measures, coupling renewable generation with energy storage, and switching to electrified transport. But, it adds, the government will need to plan for reduced revenue from fossil fuel exports, which roughly half by the mid-2030s.

“What matters now is moving beyond headline targets to create credible, policy-relevant roadmaps, enabling a just and effective transition,” Forster said in a statement. Brazil is also working on a national roadmap for its own economy, as well as leading a voluntary process to produce a global roadmap.

IPCC hobbled by politics

Currently, the world’s top climate science body – the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – requires countries to sign off on each “summary for policymakers” of its flagship science reports. This has led to a politically fraught process that has increasingly seen some oil-producing governments making efforts to weaken its recommendations.

In a bid to focus scientific debates on the phase-out of fossil fuels, the new SPGET was created based on a mandate from last year’s COP30. It is also meant to come up with scientific recommendations at a faster pace than the IPCC’s seven-year cycle.

Natalie Jones, senior policy advisor at the International Institute of Sustainable Development (IISD), called the new scientific panel “historic”, as it will be “more specific, more targeted and potentially more agile” with its advice on phasing out coal, oil and gas than the IPCC’s exhaustive scientific synthesis reports.

Why the transition beyond fossil fuels depends on cities and collective action

The panel will be co-chaired by Cameroonian economist Vera Songwe, PIK’s chief economist Ottmar Edenhofer and Gilberto M. Jannuzzi, professor of energy systems at Brazil’s Universidade Estadual de Campinas. It will be composed of between 50 and 100 scientists divided into four working groups: transition pathways, technological solutions, policies and finance.

Under the 12 insights for the Santa Marta process, the other group of scientists recommended banning new fossil fuel infrastructure, mandating “deep cuts” in methane emissions, implementing carbon levies on imports, and de-risking clean energy investments via interventions from central banks, among others.

Co-author Peter Newell, professor of international relations at the UK’s University of Sussex, said “there are many different challenges along the way – and not all of them have to do with lack of evidence”, but the phasing out of fossil fuels “is one part of the story and it’s important to address it”.

The original version of this story incorrectly reported that the new Science Panel for the Global Energy Transition had called on governments to develop roadmaps for phasing out fossil fuels “anchored in science and justice”. This appeal came from a separate group of scientists that worked on recommendations ahead of the Santa Marta conference. The article has now been amended.

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https://www.climatechangenews.com/2026/04/25/climate-scientists-call-for-fossil-fuel-transition-roadmaps/

Forest destruction in the tropics eased by over a third in 2025, thanks in large part to Brazil’s stronger environmental protection which drove forest loss not caused by fires to a record low in the country, an annual survey showed.

In 2025, the world lost 4.3 million hectares of tropical primary rainforest – an area roughly the size of Denmark, according to data from the University of Maryland hosted on Global Forest Watch. That is 36% lower than in 2024 when climate-fuelled fires pushed forest disappearance to a record high.

Elizabeth Goldman, co-director of Global Forest Watch at the World Resources Institute (WRI), said the drop was “encouraging” and proved what “decisive” government action can achieve. But she cautioned that part of the decline reflected “a lull” after an extreme fire year and forest destruction remains far too high to meet international goals to protect forests and limit global warming to acceptable levels.

Deforestation was 70% higher than it needed to be in 2025 to meet a global pledge to halt and reverse deforestation by 2030, which 145 countries first committed to at COP26 nearly five years ago, the report said. Brazil, which holds the COP30 presidency, has promised to deliver a global roadmap guiding countries toward that goal before this year’s UN climate summit.

“Achieving this goal in the coming years will not be easy as forests become more vulnerable to climate change and as humanity’s growing demand for food, fuel and material sourced from forests in the land they stand on continues to grow,” Goldman told journalists.

Agriculture, fires cause most losses

Primary tropical forests – such as the Amazon in Latin America, the Congo Basin and rainforests in Southeast Asia – are critical carbon sinks that help regulate the global climate by absorbing vast amounts of planet-heating CO2. Their loss weakens one of the world’s most important defences against planetary heating.

Agricultural expansion, driven both by industrial agribusinesses and shifting cultivation for subsistence, returned to being the leading cause of forest destruction in the tropics last year, the Global Forest Watch analysis found. After hitting a record high in 2024, fires – which are usually started by humans – still contributed to around a third of forest destruction in those critical regions.

Climate change is increasing fire risk in the tropics by creating hotter, drier conditions that allow blazes to spread more easily.

Lula’s policies drive progress in Brazil

Trends in global forest destruction are significantly influenced by what happens in Brazil, home to the world’s largest remaining rainforest. In 2025, the South American nation recorded a 42% fall in primary forest loss and its lowest-ever rate of forest loss caused by reasons other than fire.

Analysts said Brazil’s progress in tackling forest loss is a result of the stronger environmental protection and enforcement actions introduced since President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva returned to office in 2023, after years of budget cuts and policy rollbacks under his pro-business predecessor Jair Bolsonaro.

Lula’s administration revived the Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Deforestation in the Legal Amazon (PPCDAm), an anti-deforestation framework that coordinates actions across federal agencies and promotes strengthened monitoring, commodities tracking and support for sustainable livelihoods.

The Brazilian government also beefed up the activities of the federal environmental agency Ibama, which between 2023 and 2025 issued 81% more infraction notices and 64% more fines than in the previous two-year period.

“Brazil’s progress shows what’s possible when forest protection is treated as a national priority,” said Mirela Sandrini, executive director of WRI Brasil, adding that the success is derived from building partnerships between the government, civil society, academia, local communities and the private sector.

Neighbouring Amazon country Bolivia recorded the second-highest amount of primary forest loss in the world last year, despite being home to a fraction of the forest held by other rainforest nations like Indonesia or the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

Fires, likely started by humans, were the main cause of forest destruction in Bolivia, alongside the expansion of cattle ranching and crops such as soy and maize, the WRI analysis said.

Forest loss also remained high last year in countries including Peru, Laos and the DRC.

Malaysia and Indonesia showed stable and relatively low levels of forest loss compared to the highs reached in the mid-2010, although experts said Jakarta’s plans to massively expand food and energy production risk threatening the progress seen in the past decade.

Global policies and cash needed

Analysts said protecting the world’s remaining tropical forests will depend not only on national political leadership but also on global policy and financial developments.

Those include the creation of the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF), a major new rainforest protection fund launched by Brazil at COP30. The mechanism, which gives financial rewards to countries that keep trees standing, has been billed as an historic opportunity to finance forest production. But it is far from raising the $125 billion of public and private investment needed for it to reach a meaningful scale and is unlikely to start making payments until 2028.

After failing to secure a negotiated agreement on forest protection at COP30, Brazil promised it would deliver this year a global roadmap charting a course to end deforestation by 2030.

The COP30 presidency said it has received 177 contributions from governments, UN agencies, business groups and civil society with suggestions on what the document should include.

What countries want in the roadmap

The Coalition of Rainforest Nations, which includes 50 countries, wants the roadmap to adopt a “global carbon budget” lens, mapping out region by region where CO2 emissions cuts are most urgent and where existing forest carbon stocks must be protected.

The negotiating bloc also wants finance, including from carbon markets, to be given a prominent space in the document, which will need to obtain broad support from governments to be effective. Without it, the roadmap “risks becoming yet another [plan] collecting dust on the shelves of posterity”, its submission said.

Colombia said interventions should focus on tackling the root causes of deforestation, pointing out that forest loss in the country is concentrated in regions afflicted by deep inequalities, high levels of poverty and the widespread presence of organised crime.

Indonesia wants the roadmap to function as a collaborative platform that “strengthens partnerships”, but warns that international initiatives should “avoid unilateral measures that may undermine trust and effective cooperation”, a thinly veiled rebuke of the European Union’s deforestation regulation.

In its submission, the United Kingdom said the roadmap should focus on a small number of “critical interventions” that can unlock the greatest progress, such as securing legal land rights for Indigenous communities, encouraging sustainable land use and introducing demand-side measures to promote deforestation-free products.

Meanwhile, Russia voiced its opposition to the creation of a “universal roadmap” to end deforestation, saying it instead wants to see a “dedicated dialogue” on forests where countries just exchange best practices.

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