The voluntary carbon market (VCM) lets companies buy carbon credits to offset their greenhouse gas emissions. AlliedOffsets, a data and technology firm for carbon offsetting, tracks this market closely. Their database covers more than 36,000 projects, over 28,000 buyers, and billions of tons of carbon that have been issued or retired. 

The VCM is growing fast. Over the last five years, most buyers have come from technology, telecommunications, and energy. Other sectors, like industrials, manufacturing, financial services, and aviation, also participate, though in smaller amounts.

The United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Japan have the most buyers, showing that developed countries lead the market.

As the market grows, new companies and sectors are expected to join. AlliedOffsets studied over 130,000 companies to predict who will likely buy carbon credits next. This helps sellers, project developers, and policymakers focus their efforts where demand is likely.

LtB Model: Predicting the Next Wave of Credit Buyers

AlliedOffsets uses a model called Likelihood to Buy (LtB). It looks at companies active before and since 2024, and even those that have never bought credits publicly. The company stated:

“Ranking specific companies’ likelihoods and identifying patterns in their unifying traits informs market suppliers and intermediaries about who to pivot engagement towards. Understanding the features that play the greatest roles in determining companies’ likelihoods, meanwhile, is vital for highlighting wider drivers for the growth of the market, which serve as levers for policymakers and signals for companies themselves.”

The model includes data from 36 global registries, covering both non-anonymous purchases and retirements. It looks at several key factors that affect a company’s likelihood to buy, including:

• Abatement potential – how easy it is for the company to reduce emissions.
  
• Data center usage – companies with large data centers use more energy and may buy more credits.
  
• Headquarters country – companies in the US, UK, and China lead predicted purchases.
  
• Internal carbon pricing – companies with higher carbon costs buy more credits.
  
• Net-zero targets – companies with short-term or long-term climate goals are more likely to buy.
  
• Sector – aviation, energy, and tech tend to buy more due to rules and public pressure.
  
• Annual profit or loss – profitable firms are more able to purchase carbon credits.
  

The model also uses SHAP analysis to show which factors influence predicted buying the most. Companies that recently bought credits are weighted higher. Some sectors, like aviation, are manually marked as high-likelihood because of rules like CORSIA, which requires airlines to offset emissions.

AlliedOffsets also separates companies into new entrants and returning buyers, helping track demand trends.

Forecasted Carbon Credit Demand

AlliedOffsets predicts that new and returning buyers will need about 281 million credits per year. This comes from over 11,500 companies with characteristics similar to current buyers.

The demand by project type is expected to have this composition:

Demand for forestry projects is rising, partly because of forward contracts, which made up 55% of the 147 million credits negotiated in 2025. 

• MUST READ: Carbon Credit Offtakes Surge in 2025: What the $12B Says About the Future Market?

By country, the greatest demand will come from the U.S., China, UK, France, Germany, and Brazil. 

Aviation will be a big factor because airlines must offset emissions under CORSIA rules. Energy and technology companies in the US, like AT&T, IBM, and Ingram Micro, are likely to enter or re-enter the market.

Moreover, new entrants will expand the buyer base, per AlliedOffsets analysis. These include consumer goods, professional services, healthcare, and industrial firms. Many come from countries with fewer buyers so far, like Turkey and Belgium.

Financial Impact of Returning and New Buyers 

AlliedOffsets estimates that new and returning buyers will spend around $2.27 billion per year. Sector contributions are expected as follows, with aviation and energy leading the pack:

• Aviation: over $800 million per year (about one-third of total).
• Energy and Technology & Telecommunications: substantial ongoing purchases, over $300 million a year.
• Consumer services, industrials, financial services, professional services: smaller but steady spend.

Returning buyers bought nearly 7 million credits in previous years. ExxonMobil accounted for 66% of these purchases through both forward contracts and OTC deals. Other companies, like ArcelorMittal, invest in low-emission technology, reducing the need to buy credits.

New entrants, especially airlines, will increase activity. Credits purchased for CORSIA compliance must match emissions for international flights to and from ICAO member states.

Overall, growth in both returning and new buyers shows that corporate demand for carbon credits is likely to rise sharply. Companies that belong to initiatives like RE100, SBTi, Race to Zero, or NZBA are more likely to participate in the voluntary carbon market.

A Turning Point and Future Forecasts: Supply, Demand, and Policy Drivers

In 2025, the voluntary carbon credit market saw big changes. Total retirements fell to about 168 million tonnes, and new issuances dropped to around 270 million tonnes, the lowest since 2020.

Despite this, spending rose to roughly $1.04 billion, up from $980 million in 2024. The average price per credit also climbed to about $6.10, showing that buyers are paying more for high-quality, trusted credits rather than just buying large amounts.

Companies are now choosing credits with strong monitoring and real climate impact. Nature-based projects, like afforestation and reforestation, did better than older REDD+ credits.

Forward contracts also grew, with over $12 billion signed in 2025, even though these will deliver only about 10 million credits a year through 2035. This shows that many companies want to secure the future supply of trusted credits. These trends match forecasts from AlliedOffsets, where demand is expected to rise for durable, high-quality carbon credits.

AlliedOffsets keeps expanding its database, now covering over 60,000 companies. Adding historical emissions data and checking with initiatives like the Forest Stewardship Council and Science Based Targets will improve forecasts.

Analysts expect supply limits may appear in forestry and land use projects as demand grows. Engineered removals, chemical processes, and industrial projects will also get more attention. Large investments by companies like Google and Amazon, which pledged $100 million to superpollutant removal projects by 2030, are expected to drive this.

Returning and new buyers, led by aviation, energy, and tech, will shape the next wave of demand. Understanding these patterns helps policymakers, intermediaries, and project developers plan supply and engagement strategies.

The voluntary carbon market is entering a new growth phase, driven by rules, climate commitments, and better forecasting tools. With models like Likelihood to Buy, market participants can plan ahead. Forestry, renewable energy, and industrial projects are likely to see the biggest benefits as corporate demand grows worldwide.

• READ MORE: The Carbon Credit Market in 2025 is A Turning Point: What Comes Next for 2026 and Beyond?

The post Who Will Drive the Next Wave of Carbon Credit Demand? Insights from AlliedOffsets appeared first on Carbon Credits.

The verified carbon market is changing. Buyers are asking harder questions. A carbon credit’s value is increasingly defined not just by the carbon it represents, but by what the project delivers alongside it and by how rigorously those outcomes are measured.

Disseminated on behalf of Surge Battery Metals Inc.

March 17, 2026: West Vancouver, BC; Surge Battery Metals Inc. (the “Company” or “Surge”) (TSXV: NILI, OTC: NILIF, FRA: DJ5C) is pleased to announce that former Berkshire Hathaway Energy executive, Mr. Richard Weech, has joined the Board of the Company as an Independent Director.

Mr. Weech is an executive professional with a thirty-five-year record of leading and contributing to high-achieving organizations delivering superior results in a variety of diverse leadership, financial, and operating roles in public and private businesses. He has extensive experience in leading and building businesses, developing people, raising capital, strategic planning, business development, joint venture structuring and risk management. Before his retirement in 2022, Mr. Weech spent 2014 through July 2022 responsible for leading the Berkshire Hathaway Energy subsidiaries, BHE Investments and BHE Renewables, through significant asset and financial growth that included developing and evaluating lithium extraction opportunities. Mr. Weech holds the CA, CPA, CFA professional designations and graduated with a Bachelor of Commerce with Distinction from the University of Alberta.

Mr. Weech commented: “I am excited to join the Surge Board of Directors and contribute to the successful development of a world class lithium critical mineral opportunity.”

In connection with the appointment of Mr. Weech to the Company’s Board of Directors, the Company has received the resignation of Mr. Ted O’Connor. The Company wishes to thank Mr. O’Connor for his contribution as a director and wishes him well in his future endeavors.

About Surge Battery Metals Inc.

Surge Battery Metals Inc., a Canadian-based mineral exploration company, is at the forefront of securing the supply of domestic lithium through its active engagement in the Nevada North Lithium Project. The project focuses on development of high-grade lithium energy metals in Nevada, USA, a crucial element for powering battery electric storage and electric vehicles. With a primary listing on the TSX Venture Exchange in Canada and a listing on the OTCQX Market in the USA, Surge Battery Metals Inc. is strategically positioned as a key player in advancing lithium exploration.

About Evolution Mining Limited

Evolution Mining is a leading, globally relevant gold miner. Evolution operates six mines, comprising five wholly-owned mines – Cowal in New South Wales, Ernest Henry and Mt Rawdon in Queensland, Mungari in Western Australia, and Red Lake in Ontario, Canada, and an 80% share in Northparkes in New South Wales.

About Nevada North Lithium LLC

Nevada North Lithium LLC owns the Nevada North Lithium Project southeast of Jackpot, Nevada about 73 km north-northeast of Wells, Elko County. The first three rounds of drilling at the project identified a strongly mineralized zone of lithium bearing clays occupying a strike length of more than 4,300 meters and a known width of greater than 1,500 meters. Highly anomalous soil values and geophysical surveys suggest there is potential for the clay horizons to be much greater in extent. The Nevada North Lithium Project has a pit-constrained Inferred Resource containing an estimated 11.24 Mt of Lithium Carbonate Equivalent (LCE) grading 3010 ppm Li at a 1,250-ppm cutoff. The recently completed PEA for the project reported an after-tax NPV8% US $9.17 Billion and after-tax IRR of 22.8% at $24,000/t LCE and an OPEX of US $5,243/t LCE.

On behalf of the Board of Directors

“Greg Reimer”

Greg Reimer, Director, President & CEO

DISCLAIMER 

New Era Publishing Inc. and/or CarbonCredits.com (“We” or “Us”) are not securities dealers or brokers, investment advisers, or financial advisers, and you should not rely on the information herein as investment advice. Surge Battery Metals Inc. (“Company”) made a one-time payment of $50,000 to provide marketing services for a term of two months. None of the owners, members, directors, or employees of New Era Publishing Inc. and/or CarbonCredits.com currently hold, or have any beneficial ownership in, any shares, stocks, or options of the companies mentioned.

This article is informational only and is solely for use by prospective investors in determining whether to seek additional information. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Examples that we provide of share price increases pertaining to a particular issuer from one referenced date to another represent arbitrarily chosen time periods and are no indication whatsoever of future stock prices for that issuer and are of no predictive value.

Our stock profiles are intended to highlight certain companies for your further investigation; they are not stock recommendations or an offer or sale of the referenced securities. The securities issued by the companies we profile should be considered high-risk; if you do invest despite these warnings, you may lose your entire investment. Please do your own research before investing, including reviewing the companies’ SEDAR+ and SEC filings, press releases, and risk disclosures.

It is our policy that the information contained in this profile was provided by the company, extracted from SEDAR+ and SEC filings, company websites, and other publicly available sources. We believe the sources and information are accurate and reliable but we cannot guarantee them.

CAUTIONARY STATEMENT AND FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATION

Certain statements contained in this news release may constitute “forward-looking information” within the meaning of applicable securities laws. Forward-looking information generally can be identified by words such as “anticipate,” “expect,” “estimate,” “forecast,” “plan,” and similar expressions suggesting future outcomes or events. Forward-looking information is based on current expectations of management; however, it is subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated.

These factors include, without limitation, statements relating to the Company’s exploration and development plans, the potential of its mineral projects, financing activities, regulatory approvals, market conditions, and future objectives. Forward-looking information involves numerous risks and uncertainties and actual results might differ materially from results suggested in any forward-looking information. These risks and uncertainties include, among other things, market volatility, the state of financial markets for the Company’s securities, fluctuations in commodity prices, operational challenges, and changes in business plans.

Forward-looking information is based on several key expectations and assumptions, including, without limitation, that the Company will continue with its stated business objectives and will be able to raise additional capital as required. Although management of the Company has attempted to identify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially, there may be other factors that cause results not to be as anticipated, estimated, or intended.

There can be no assurance that such forward-looking information will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially. Accordingly, readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking information. Additional information about risks and uncertainties is contained in the Company’s management’s discussion and analysis and annual information form for the year ended December 31, 2024, copies of which are available on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca.

The forward-looking information contained herein is expressly qualified in its entirety by this cautionary statement. Forward-looking information reflects management’s current beliefs and is based on information currently available to the Company. The forward-looking information is made as of the date of this news release, and the Company assumes no obligation to update or revise such information to reflect new events or circumstances except as may be required by applicable law.

The post Surge Announces Former Berkshire Hathaway Energy Executive Mr. Richard Weech Joins the Board as an Independent Director appeared first on Carbon Credits.