中国国家主席习近平于2020年承诺在2060年前实现碳中和，此后中国围绕能源转型的思路发生了巨大转变。
然而，尽管此后中国出台了一系列重大政策，但目前仍不明确什么是新的能源系统，以及中国实现碳中和目标的最有效途径是什么。
我们的最新研究为中国能源转型建立了三种情景模型：一种是中国在2055年前建立净零排放的能源系统；一种是中国在2055年左右实现这一目标；还有一种是推断当前发展趋势的基线情景。
我们发现，将能效措施、终端用能消费电气化和基于各种可再生能源（如太阳能和风能）的低碳电力供应结合起来，可以极大地帮助该国在2055年前实现脱碳目标。
在最高情景下，中国的电力部门到2055年将不使用化石燃料，而一些行业将继续使用少量煤炭和天然气。然而，配备碳捕集与封存技术的生物质发电厂所产生的负排放将对此起到平衡作用。
双碳目标如何改变局势
2020年9月，当习近平开始在联合国大会上发表演讲时，几乎无人预料到中国会发表如此具有开创性的宣言。
他说：“中国将力争2030年前实现碳达峰、2060年前实现碳中和。”
这一政策现在更多地被称为“双碳”目标。
这句话改变了人们对中国能源转型的整体认识。
在此之前，中国在2017年“十九大”上的目标是“要推进能源生产和消费革命，构建清洁低碳、安全高效的能源体系。”
而习近平在2020年的讲话将中国的优先发展从实现“低碳”转变为实现“碳中和”，使能源部门从至少包括部分化石燃料消费，转变为一旦实现碳中和就几乎不给煤炭、石油和天然气留下空间。
要实现这一转变，需要处于中国政策体系和能源系统的利益相关者，如主要发电企业，真正改变思维方式。
中国在宣布碳中和目标后立即开始行动：国务院推出了“1+N”政策体系，其中包括实现“双碳”目标的总体纲领性文件（“1”）和实施该战略的一系列更具体的指导方针和法规（“N”）。
到目前为止，这些政策主要侧重于在2030年之前实现碳达峰。不过，在2060年之前实现碳中和的长期目标始终存在。
国家能源局发布了一份新型电力系统发展蓝皮书。在更广泛的层面上，多个政府部门已提出要为实现碳中和而推动整个能源系统——而不仅仅是电力系统——进行转型。
因此，今天中国能源转型的基础比习近平宣布之前更加坚实和精确。现在的问题是：新型能源系统将是什么样子，中国将如何实现这一目标？
中国能源转型的三种情景
为了回答这些问题，我们的研究模拟了中国能源转型的三种情景：一种是中国在2055年前建立一个净零排放的能源系统；一种是中国在2055年左右实现这一目标；还有一种是推断当前发展趋势的基线情景。
该分析基于一种详细的自下而上的建模方法，同时将“美丽中国”愿景——实现“绿色和高质量增长”的官方倡议——作为转型的指导方针。
在我们的模型中，能源转型的总体战略包括三个紧密相连的行动：
- 提高整个供应链的能源效率；
- 尽可能使终端用能部门电气化；
- 将电力部门转变为以太阳能和风能为支柱的“绿色”、无化石能源部门。
（政府间气候变化专门委员会的最新评估报告显示，这些是将升温控制在1.5°C或2°C的所有全球路径的关键要素。）
遵循这一战略的结果是，中国的能源系统将能够为中国可持续的经济增长提供动能，同时实现净零碳排放、空气质量改善和高水平的能源安全。
在最高情景下，中国的电力系统将从2045年起实现碳中和，整个能源系统将在2055年前实现碳中和。
与今天的情况相比，尽管经济有所增长，但2060年的一次能源消费总量将有所下降。此外，煤炭、石油和天然气将几乎被逐步淘汰，对进口化石燃料的依赖将被消除。
下图显示了2021年中国经济的能流（上图）与2060年在最高情景下的能流（下图）的对比。
在左侧，各版块显示了流入经济的一次能源来源，如煤炭（黑色）、天然气（粉红色）、石油（灰色），以及非化石燃料，如核能（棕色）、水能（深蓝色）、风能（浅蓝色）和太阳能（黄色）。
各版块的中心都显示了一次能源转化为更有用形式的过程，如电力或精炼油产品。化石燃料中所含的大部分一次能源在这一阶段以废热的形式被浪费（“损失”）。
右侧是按部门划分的最终能源用户。
最值得注意的是，化石燃料（尤其是煤炭）是2021年最大的能源来源，而在雄心勃勃的2060年情景（见下图）中，低碳能源则占主导地位。
中国能源转型的三个阶段
我们的研究表明，转型之路将分为三个主要阶段。第一阶段是2030年前的碳达峰。
在此期间，风电和光伏发电的部署将继续增加，同时工业和交通部门的电气化也将取得进展。
然而，就一次能源消费总量而言，煤炭和石油仍将是最主要的初级能源消费。
接下来是“能源革命”阶段，从2030年到2050年。在这一阶段，光电和风电将成为电力供应的主要来源，终端用能部门的电气化程度将大幅提高。
摒弃化石燃料可以最大限度地减少发电和提炼过程中的废热损失。同时，利用可再生能源生产的“绿氢”在工业领域将变得越来越重要。
第三阶段是巩固阶段，从2050年到2060年。脱碳发生在钢铁和化工等难以实现电气化的细分部门，旧的风光发电厂将被新的风光发电厂取代，能源组合中剩余的化石燃料几乎被淘汰。
煤电成为灵活性提供者
虽然中国政府计划从2025年起“逐步淘汰”煤炭，但根据当前的政策方针和市场情况，我们估计在三种情景中，煤电装机都不会迅速消失。
相反，燃煤电厂将逐渐成为保障能源安全和满足电力需求高峰的能力提供者，而不再进行大量发电。
当燃煤电厂达到30年左右的预期寿命时就将被关闭，而不会被新的煤电装机所取代。如下图所示，在我们最高情景中，最后一批煤电厂将于2055年关闭。
图中上半部分显示了2021年至2060年燃煤电厂的装机容量，下半部分显示了燃煤电厂的发电量。
与此同时，在我们的情景中，天然气在电力部门作用有限。这是因为光电和风电可以提供更便宜的电力，而现有的燃煤电厂——加上储能和需求侧响应设施的大规模扩张——足以提供灵活性和调峰能力。
管理由多变的风电和光电主导的电网
依赖光电和风电作为主要电力来源的能源系统，需要采取特殊的灵活性措施促成供需有效匹配。
下图显示了在2055年前实现碳中和的雄心勃勃的情景下，2060年夏季一周内每小时电力平衡的模拟示例。
图中上半部分显示的是供应侧发电量。在白天，光电（黄色）在电力生产中占主导地位，而风电厂（浅蓝）在24小时内都有更稳定的输出。
在傍晚和夜间，储能（紫色）会被释放，水力发电量（深蓝）高于白天。
图中下半部分显示的是需求侧的用电情况。储能（紫色）在白天充电，电动汽车智能充电（蓝色）在一周内提供灵活性。
作为后备电源，电动汽车车网互动发挥着重要作用——其不一定是重要的能源供应商，而是在风电和光电输出有限时，成为必要时可以启用的最后手段。该方案是保证电力系统容量充足的一种经济、高效的方法。
在2055年之前，煤电厂同样可能是电力系统可靠且经济的容量提供者，尽管如前所述，其平均发电量并不高。
从日常调度（管理供需的过程）的角度来看，这种创造灵活性的方式似乎很复杂。然而，一个高效且运作良好的电力市场（包括消费者和生产者）可以做到这一点。
消除各省之间的电力交易障碍、构建全国统一的电力市场，将是实现这一目标的关键因素。
未来远景规划
我们在《中国能源转型展望》（China Energy Transformation Outlook）中的情景对净零排放能源系统的长期未来提供了一系列量化远景规划。
我们对电力系统和其他能源终端用能部门建立了详细的模型，从而可以将这一新能源系统的发展与实现这一转变的政策措施联系起来。
我们研究得出的一个关键结论与上述中国能源转型不同阶段的时机有关。我们的模型表明，成功协调这些阶段至关重要，这样才能在保持能源安全的同时避免对能源基础设施进行不必要的投资。
我们情景中的其他关键推动因素包括扩大电网所需投资、国家电力市场的发展和对能源系统灵活性的支持。
即使有最优的远景规划和从我们的路径中获得的洞见，中国要实现2060年的目标仍有许多需要克服的挑战和障碍。
然而，我们的情景表明，有一些可行且具有成本效益的路径可以在不等待新技术突破的情况下实施。
The post 嘉宾来稿：中国能源系统如何在2055年前实现碳中和 appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Climate Change
DeBriefed 19 June 2026: Bonn talks end in ‘gridlock’ | Energy’s ‘new era’ | Oceans in climate negotiations
Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
Bonn talks close
‘SIDE-STEPPING AND STALLING’: UN climate talks in Bonn have ended in “gridlock”, according to Climate Home News. The outlet reported on the failure to balance developing countries’ need for climate-adaptation finance with “richer nations’ desire to move forward” on emissions cuts. It added that both topics were subject to “rule 16”, meaning no agreement could be reached and work will be pushed to the COP31 summit in Turkey. Inside Climate News quoted UN climate executive secretary Simon Stiell, who said the talks had seen “side-stepping and stalling”.
JUST TRANSITION: One “glimmer of hope” came from negotiations on achieving a “just transition”, reported Euronews. The news outlet said negotiators “made headway on operationalising the Belém-Antalya mechanism”, intended to support people in the shift to a low-carbon economy. However, Politico concluded that much of the focus in Bonn had “shift[ed] to efforts outside diplomatic talks – raising questions about the future of global climate negotiations”.
‘ATTACKING SCIENCE’: Agence France-Presse reported on the EU, Switzerland and “dozens of developing nations” warning of “attacks on science” by a “small group of fossil-fuels interests” in Bonn. Table Briefings explained that “the 1.5C target is increasingly being challenged” and the role of the UN climate-science panel – the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – in an upcoming assessment of global climate progress “remains controversial”. See Carbon Brief’s full write-up of the talks for more detail.
US-Iran deal
PRICE DROP: The US and Iran announced that they have reached an interim agreement to halt the war and reopen the strait of Hormuz, reported Bloomberg. Oil prices have fallen, as the “long-awaited deal” began the process of “eas[ing]” the global energy crisis triggered by the conflict, according to the New York Times. The Associated Press noted that high fuel prices will “likely outlast the Iran war”.
‘OIL GLUT’: The Financial Times reported that the International Energy Agency (IEA) has forecast a “glut of oil” emerging next year, if the peace deal holds. The IEA said this would allow countries to build new strategic reserves, as they “review their energy strategies and policies in response to the crisis”, according to Reuters.
‘NEW ERA’: Agence France-Presse reported that oil and gas companies have “few illusions about a return to normal for the Gulf energy industry after more than three months of blockage”. One analyst told the newswire that the war “showed the oil and gas industry that Hormuz risk is no longer just a geopolitical headline”.
Around the world
- OCEAN MONITOR: The Trump administration is “abandoning its plan” to dismantle a $368m ocean monitoring system key for tracking climate change after a “bipartisan backlash on Capitol Hill”, reported the New York Times.
- CORAL HAVEN: The New York Times covered preliminary research, presented at the Our Ocean Conference in Kenya, suggesting there could be three times as many “coral refugia” – where corals are relatively safe from climate change – than previously thought.
- BAD CREDIT: Down to Earth reported that the first carbon credits issued under the Paris Agreement’s new Article 6.4 mechanism are “facing scrutiny over alleged links to institutions controlled by Myanmar’s military junta”.
- OIL BACKTRACK: Reuters reported that oil-and-gas company Equinor has dropped a renewable-energy target and scaled back clean investments, while another Reuters story noted that Shell is selling off its offshore wind assets.
1.1 billion
The number of children facing “at least three overlapping climate hazards”, according to a new Unicef report covered by Agence France-Presse.
Latest climate research
- Including the “permafrost carbon-climate feedback” in climate models increases the chance of exceeding “tipping elements” – such as the Greenland ice sheets, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation or Amazon rainforest – by up to 50% | Environmental Research Letters
- The intensity of influenza outbreaks could decline in temperate regions, but increase in tropical areas over the next century, as the climate warms | PNAS Nexus
- European snow cover has declined by 20% for December and January since the start of the industrial era, revealing an “unprecedented ongoing shrinkage of European winters” | Communications Earth & Environment
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
The more than 2m battery electric vehicles (BEVs), 1m “plug-in” hybrids (PHEVs) and 100,000 electric vans on UK roads are already saving drivers a total of around £3bn a year, according to new Carbon Brief analysis. This amounts to savings of more than £1,100 a year in fuel costs for each BEV driver in the UK. The analysis comes amid reports in UK media this week that the government is considering “watering down” its EV sales targets.
Spotlight
Oceans rising at UN climate talks
The state of the world’s oceans is inextricably linked to the changing climate – and many delegates at UN climate talks want to see more focus on this issue, reports Carbon Brief.
Oceans are often described as the world’s “greatest ally” against climate change – absorbing 30% of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and most of the heat generated by those emissions.
They are also the site of important climate solutions, such as huge offshore windfarms and the shipping industry’s transition to cleaner fuels.
At the same time, the oceans themselves present a growing danger to coastal communities and sea life due to sea level rise, marine heatwaves and ocean acidification.
These diverse issues have led to growing calls within the UN climate process for more focus on oceans. During climate negotiations this week in Bonn – known as SB64 – nations and civil society had a chance to air these views during an “ocean and climate change dialogue”.
‘Elevate action’
Oceans first entered UN climate outcomes in 2019, when the final COP25 negotiated text requested a new “dialogue” on “the ocean and climate change to consider how to strengthen mitigation and adaptation action”.
The following years saw this dialogue established as an annual event. However, the political weight of these discussions has been limited.
COP31 is being co-led by Turkey and Australia, but with Pacific islands playing a supporting role. These small islands sometimes self-identify as “large ocean states”, stressing the ocean’s centrality in their societies.
In Bonn, figures from across the presidency threw their weight behind this issue. Chris Bowen, an Australian minister and incoming COP31 “president of negotiations”, told attendees:
“Australia, Turkey and the Pacific see an important opportunity to elevate ocean-based climate action.”
Strategies and finance
The two-day dialogue in Bonn involved a series of panels, statements and breakout groups.
One of the main topics was how oceans are integrated into national climate plans under the Paris Agreement, known as “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs).
Three-quarters of the latest round of NDCs mention oceans, with conservation of “blue carbon” ecosystems the most frequently described action. (Landscapes such as mangroves can both absorb CO2 and protect coastal areas.)
Delegates also discussed alignment with the UN biodiversity process, as well as ocean finance, which currently makes up less than 1% of all climate finance.
(As discussions were taking place in Bonn, country officials also gathered in Mombasa, Kenya for the 11th Our Ocean Conference. Carbon Brief’s associate editor Giuliana Viglione attended the conference and will publish a full summary shortly.)
Developing countries were clear that many of the ocean-related actions in their NDCs would depend on receiving more financial support.
‘Political momentum’
With the backing of the COP31 presidency, delegates were hopeful about where this year’s dialogue could lead.
Charles Hamilton, an advisor for the Bahamas who spoke for the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) in the dialogue, told Carbon Brief that island representatives “are not traveling thousands of miles to just talk and pat ourselves on the back”. He added:
“A dialogue that just remains a dialogue is just more talk – no action.”
Given that, he said “discussions in the dialogue must move into COP decisions and the decisions must be actioned”, noting the importance of finance.
Marina Corrêa, oceans lead at WWF-Brazil, pointed to an upcoming UN climate change Standing Committee on Finance forum as a space to ramp up pressure on ocean finance.
More broadly, she wanted to see the presidencies translate their support into a “leader-level ocean initiative” that could “mainstream” oceans across negotiations.
“We have a really interesting opportunity, in terms of political momentum,” Corrêa told Carbon Brief.
Watch, read, listen
‘HOTTER THAN HELL’: An episode of the BBC’s Rare Earth podcast titled “hotter than hell” considered the issue of extreme heat, with input from experts and “people facing up to the hottest temperatures on the planet”.
NOT BROKEN?: John Drake, a professor of ecology at the University of Georgia, wrote an essay for Aeon – also re-published as a Guardian “long read” – questioning the framing of ecosystems and climate systems “breaking down”.
ON COURSE: On his Volts podcast, US climate journalist David Roberts interviewed UK climate minister Katie White, quizzing her about whether the UK will “stay the course with its climate plans”.
Coming up
- 20-28 June: London climate action week
- 21 June: Colombia presidential runoff
- 24 June: UK Climate Change Committee progress in reducing emissions 2026 report to parliament
Pick of the jobs
- Mongabay, managing editor – Africa | Salary: Unknown. Location: Global
- Contexte, environment reporter – Brussels | Salary: €45,000-€60,000. Location: Brussels
- Climate 200, communications director | Salary: Unknown. Location: Australia
- Energy Tracker Asia, energy transition correspondent | Salary: $3,000-$4,000 per month. Location: South-east Asia (remote)
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.
The post DeBriefed 19 June 2026: Bonn talks end in ‘gridlock’ | Energy’s ‘new era’ | Oceans in climate negotiations appeared first on Carbon Brief.
The fiscal future of Musselshell County is uncertain after the coal mine that anchors its economy helped defeat the official working to diversify the area’s revenue streams.
Robert Pancratz couldn’t believe it.
Planning For Life After Coal Cost a Montana County Commissioner His Seat
A deep pool of warm water that forms in the Western Pacific could bring strong storms to Southern California and throughout the South while increasing the risks of Western wildfires.
From our collaborating partner Living on Earth, public radio’s environmental news magazine, an interview by Jenni Doering with author Kevin Trenberth.
El Niño Is Here and Will Have ‘Big Consequences’ for Global Weather
-
Climate Change10 months ago
Guest post: Why China is still building new coal – and when it might stop
-
Greenhouse Gases10 months ago
Guest post: Why China is still building new coal – and when it might stop
-
Greenhouse Gases2 years ago嘉宾来稿：满足中国增长的用电需求 光伏加储能“比新建煤电更实惠”
-
Climate Change2 years ago嘉宾来稿：满足中国增长的用电需求 光伏加储能“比新建煤电更实惠”
-
Climate Change2 years ago
Bill Discounting Climate Change in Florida’s Energy Policy Awaits DeSantis’ Approval
-
Renewable Energy8 months agoSending Progressive Philanthropist George Soros to Prison?
-
Carbon Footprint2 years agoUS SEC’s Climate Disclosure Rules Spur Renewed Interest in Carbon Credits
-
Greenhouse Gases11 months ago
嘉宾来稿：探究火山喷发如何影响气候预测