中国国家主席习近平于2020年承诺在2060年前实现碳中和,此后中国围绕能源转型的思路发生了巨大转变。
然而,尽管此后中国出台了一系列重大政策,但目前仍不明确什么是新的能源系统,以及中国实现碳中和目标的最有效途径是什么。
我们的最新研究为中国能源转型建立了三种情景模型:一种是中国在2055年前建立净零排放的能源系统;一种是中国在2055年左右实现这一目标;还有一种是推断当前发展趋势的基线情景。
我们发现,将能效措施、终端用能消费电气化和基于各种可再生能源(如太阳能和风能)的低碳电力供应结合起来,可以极大地帮助该国在2055年前实现脱碳目标。
在最高情景下,中国的电力部门到2055年将不使用化石燃料,而一些行业将继续使用少量煤炭和天然气。然而,配备碳捕集与封存技术的生物质发电厂所产生的负排放将对此起到平衡作用。
双碳目标如何改变局势
2020年9月,当习近平开始在联合国大会上发表演讲时,几乎无人预料到中国会发表如此具有开创性的宣言。

他说:“中国将力争2030年前实现碳达峰、2060年前实现碳中和。”
这一政策现在更多地被称为“双碳”目标。
这句话改变了人们对中国能源转型的整体认识。
在此之前,中国在2017年“十九大”上的目标是“要推进能源生产和消费革命,构建清洁低碳、安全高效的能源体系。”
而习近平在2020年的讲话将中国的优先发展从实现“低碳”转变为实现“碳中和”,使能源部门从至少包括部分化石燃料消费,转变为一旦实现碳中和就几乎不给煤炭、石油和天然气留下空间。
要实现这一转变,需要处于中国政策体系和能源系统的利益相关者,如主要发电企业,真正改变思维方式。
中国在宣布碳中和目标后立即开始行动:国务院推出了“1+N”政策体系,其中包括实现“双碳”目标的总体纲领性文件(“1”)和实施该战略的一系列更具体的指导方针和法规(“N”)。
到目前为止,这些政策主要侧重于在2030年之前实现碳达峰。不过,在2060年之前实现碳中和的长期目标始终存在。
国家能源局发布了一份新型电力系统发展蓝皮书。在更广泛的层面上,多个政府部门已提出要为实现碳中和而推动整个能源系统——而不仅仅是电力系统——进行转型。
因此,今天中国能源转型的基础比习近平宣布之前更加坚实和精确。现在的问题是:新型能源系统将是什么样子,中国将如何实现这一目标?
中国能源转型的三种情景
为了回答这些问题,我们的研究模拟了中国能源转型的三种情景:一种是中国在2055年前建立一个净零排放的能源系统;一种是中国在2055年左右实现这一目标;还有一种是推断当前发展趋势的基线情景。
该分析基于一种详细的自下而上的建模方法,同时将“美丽中国”愿景——实现“绿色和高质量增长”的官方倡议——作为转型的指导方针。
在我们的模型中,能源转型的总体战略包括三个紧密相连的行动:
- 提高整个供应链的能源效率;
- 尽可能使终端用能部门电气化;
- 将电力部门转变为以太阳能和风能为支柱的“绿色”、无化石能源部门。
(政府间气候变化专门委员会的最新评估报告显示,这些是将升温控制在1.5°C或2°C的所有全球路径的关键要素。)
遵循这一战略的结果是,中国的能源系统将能够为中国可持续的经济增长提供动能,同时实现净零碳排放、空气质量改善和高水平的能源安全。
在最高情景下,中国的电力系统将从2045年起实现碳中和,整个能源系统将在2055年前实现碳中和。
与今天的情况相比,尽管经济有所增长,但2060年的一次能源消费总量将有所下降。此外,煤炭、石油和天然气将几乎被逐步淘汰,对进口化石燃料的依赖将被消除。
下图显示了2021年中国经济的能流(上图)与2060年在最高情景下的能流(下图)的对比。
在左侧,各版块显示了流入经济的一次能源来源,如煤炭(黑色)、天然气(粉红色)、石油(灰色),以及非化石燃料,如核能(棕色)、水能(深蓝色)、风能(浅蓝色)和太阳能(黄色)。
各版块的中心都显示了一次能源转化为更有用形式的过程,如电力或精炼油产品。化石燃料中所含的大部分一次能源在这一阶段以废热的形式被浪费(“损失”)。
右侧是按部门划分的最终能源用户。
最值得注意的是,化石燃料(尤其是煤炭)是2021年最大的能源来源,而在雄心勃勃的2060年情景(见下图)中,低碳能源则占主导地位。


中国能源转型的三个阶段
我们的研究表明,转型之路将分为三个主要阶段。第一阶段是2030年前的碳达峰。
在此期间,风电和光伏发电的部署将继续增加,同时工业和交通部门的电气化也将取得进展。
然而,就一次能源消费总量而言,煤炭和石油仍将是最主要的初级能源消费。
接下来是“能源革命”阶段,从2030年到2050年。在这一阶段,光电和风电将成为电力供应的主要来源,终端用能部门的电气化程度将大幅提高。
摒弃化石燃料可以最大限度地减少发电和提炼过程中的废热损失。同时,利用可再生能源生产的“绿氢”在工业领域将变得越来越重要。
第三阶段是巩固阶段,从2050年到2060年。脱碳发生在钢铁和化工等难以实现电气化的细分部门,旧的风光发电厂将被新的风光发电厂取代,能源组合中剩余的化石燃料几乎被淘汰。
煤电成为灵活性提供者
虽然中国政府计划从2025年起“逐步淘汰”煤炭,但根据当前的政策方针和市场情况,我们估计在三种情景中,煤电装机都不会迅速消失。
相反,燃煤电厂将逐渐成为保障能源安全和满足电力需求高峰的能力提供者,而不再进行大量发电。
当燃煤电厂达到30年左右的预期寿命时就将被关闭,而不会被新的煤电装机所取代。如下图所示,在我们最高情景中,最后一批煤电厂将于2055年关闭。
图中上半部分显示了2021年至2060年燃煤电厂的装机容量,下半部分显示了燃煤电厂的发电量。


与此同时,在我们的情景中,天然气在电力部门作用有限。这是因为光电和风电可以提供更便宜的电力,而现有的燃煤电厂——加上储能和需求侧响应设施的大规模扩张——足以提供灵活性和调峰能力。
管理由多变的风电和光电主导的电网
依赖光电和风电作为主要电力来源的能源系统,需要采取特殊的灵活性措施促成供需有效匹配。
下图显示了在2055年前实现碳中和的雄心勃勃的情景下,2060年夏季一周内每小时电力平衡的模拟示例。
图中上半部分显示的是供应侧发电量。在白天,光电(黄色)在电力生产中占主导地位,而风电厂(浅蓝)在24小时内都有更稳定的输出。
在傍晚和夜间,储能(紫色)会被释放,水力发电量(深蓝)高于白天。
图中下半部分显示的是需求侧的用电情况。储能(紫色)在白天充电,电动汽车智能充电(蓝色)在一周内提供灵活性。

作为后备电源,电动汽车车网互动发挥着重要作用——其不一定是重要的能源供应商,而是在风电和光电输出有限时,成为必要时可以启用的最后手段。该方案是保证电力系统容量充足的一种经济、高效的方法。
在2055年之前,煤电厂同样可能是电力系统可靠且经济的容量提供者,尽管如前所述,其平均发电量并不高。
从日常调度(管理供需的过程)的角度来看,这种创造灵活性的方式似乎很复杂。然而,一个高效且运作良好的电力市场(包括消费者和生产者)可以做到这一点。
消除各省之间的电力交易障碍、构建全国统一的电力市场,将是实现这一目标的关键因素。
未来远景规划
我们在《中国能源转型展望》(China Energy Transformation Outlook)中的情景对净零排放能源系统的长期未来提供了一系列量化远景规划。
我们对电力系统和其他能源终端用能部门建立了详细的模型,从而可以将这一新能源系统的发展与实现这一转变的政策措施联系起来。
我们研究得出的一个关键结论与上述中国能源转型不同阶段的时机有关。我们的模型表明,成功协调这些阶段至关重要,这样才能在保持能源安全的同时避免对能源基础设施进行不必要的投资。
我们情景中的其他关键推动因素包括扩大电网所需投资、国家电力市场的发展和对能源系统灵活性的支持。
即使有最优的远景规划和从我们的路径中获得的洞见,中国要实现2060年的目标仍有许多需要克服的挑战和障碍。
然而,我们的情景表明,有一些可行且具有成本效益的路径可以在不等待新技术突破的情况下实施。
The post 嘉宾来稿:中国能源系统如何在2055年前实现碳中和 appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Climate Change
New Zealand moves to protect business with law curtailing climate litigation
New Zealand’s parliament has adopted a controversial new law blocking a whole avenue of climate litigation and shutting down its most advanced corporate lawsuit, which has been blamed by the government for shaking business confidence and investment.
The Climate Change Response (Tort Liability) Amendment Bill, expected to take effect in the coming days after it is formally signed by the Governor-General, prevents all current and future civil claims for climate loss or harm under tort law.
Justice minister Paul Goldsmith said last week that the aim was to give businesses “certainty around their climate change obligations”, noting it would not alter the government’s responsibilities under the Climate Change Response Act 2002 nor business obligations under the Emissions Trading Scheme.
“Our response to climate change is best managed by the Government at a national level and not through piece-meal litigation in the courts,” he added in a statement.
Such litigation, he said, “risks developing a new regime that contradicts the framework Parliament has already enacted” to tackle climate change.
Goldsmith singled out a key domestic climate lawsuit brought by Northland iwi leader and activist Mike Smith against six big companies: dairy firms Fonterra and Dairy Holdings, energy firms Genesis Energy and Z Energy, New Zealand Steel and coal mining firm BT Mining. A seventh original defendant, Channel Infrastructure, was dropped after it permanently decommissioned its Marsden Point oil refinery.
Smith argued that these companies had caused him harm under public nuisance and negligence law, as well as a third breach of a duty to cease contributing to climate change that has yet to be tested domestically. He did not seek financial compensation, instead asking for the companies to immediately stop emitting or contributing to net greenhouse gas emissions.
In one of the most advanced corporate climate accountability lawsuits in the world, a trial had been scheduled for April 2027 after the Supreme Court unanimously allowed the case to continue.
Corporate lobbying in the shadows
Smith described the passing of the bill as “deeply concerning”, particularly as it coincided with the Supreme Court hearing another of his climate lawsuits. In that case, Smith v Attorney-General, he argues that the government’s response to climate change and its impacts on Māori communities in particular breaches rights to life and culture.
“That timing raises profound questions about the separation of powers and the rule of law,” said Smith. “Whatever one’s view of the merits of these cases, it is deeply troubling when parliament intervenes to remove a legal pathway while the courts are actively considering fundamental questions about climate responsibility, rights and the crown’s obligations.”
The bill – which says that no person (including the government) can be found liable in tort for emissions-related climate change effects – followed major lobbying efforts by the companies defending themselves in Smith’s lawsuit. They outlined a proposed legal amendment in a briefing note to the government in 2024.
The centre-right government has been fiercely criticised over its lack of transparency in relation to this lobbying activity. The national ombudsman recently found that the Prime Minister’s Office effectively withheld information requested by the Environmental Law Initiative about meetings, discussions and conversations regarding Smith’s case.
Green groups fail to stop bill
The bill sparked huge concern among environmental campaigners in New Zealand and elsewhere. Greenpeace Aotearoa called it a “shocking abuse of executive power” and the vast majority of submissions to a parliamentary inquiry said it should be rejected.
But in the end, it was adopted with little resistance, moving relatively smoothly through parliament, passing its third reading by 67 votes to 53. Sam Bookman, climate law lecturer at Melbourne Law School, told Climate Home News he was not surprised by this, given that the coalition government has a secure majority.
A complaint has been made to the UN special rapporteur on climate change and human rights by Smith, the National Iwi Chairs Forum Pou Tikanga and youth coalition Climate Clinic Aotearoa over what they see as the government’s heavy-handed approach. Smith is also challenging the new law in yet another lawsuit.
“Pathetic”: New Zealand plans to barely cut emissions between 2030 and 2035
Bookman thinks it “very unlikely” that such a challenge will succeed, noting that New Zealand’s constitution is firmly anchored in parliamentary sovereignty.
But the expert in climate law does not see the bill as the end of legal action in the country, noting that New Zealand has a “sophisticated climate litigation landscape with a growing number of specialist and experienced lawyers and NGOs”.
The country is also approaching its next general election in November, and some opposition parties have pledged to restore access to the courts if elected.
Amanda Larsson, global project lead on agriculture for Greenpeace International, said: “This law deserves to be tested, and I strongly encourage the international climate litigation community to unite and help defend New Zealanders’ fundamental right to hold polluters accountable before this becomes a global blueprint.”
Copycat legislation on the rise
New Zealand’s move is part of a small but growing legislative effort to shut down climate litigation around the world.
In the US, Republican politicians introduced legislation in the House and Senate in April that would shield fossil fuel firms from climate liability lawsuits. Similar laws have already been passed at state level in Tennessee, Utah, Iowa and Louisiana.
The German state of Bavaria has put forward a similar proposal to the Federal Council, aiming to block private climate claims as well as the recognition and enforcement of foreign judgments imposing such liability. There are also proposals to limit available remedies and actions in the Netherlands and Belgium.
UN General Assembly backs “climate obligations” set by world’s top court
Bookman said he expects more efforts to counter climate damages litigation and advised plaintiffs to think about how to respond, including drawing on broader support in opposing them.
“Even though it’s very hard for plaintiffs to win these types of cases, companies are very eager to avoid the expense, embarrassment and political accountability that come even with unsuccessful lawsuits,” he said.
The post New Zealand moves to protect business with law curtailing climate litigation appeared first on Climate Home News.
New Zealand moves to protect business with law curtailing climate litigation
Climate Change
Indonesia’s nickel production cuts are not enough to create a sustainable industry
Bhima Yudhistira Adhinegara is the Executive Director of the Center of Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS), an Indonesia-based economic think tank. Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat is the Director of the China-Indonesia desk at CELIOS.
Indonesia produces around 60% of the world’s nickel, a metal used to manufacture batteries for electric vehicles (EVs) – more than any other country in the world. But in 2026, the government sharply reduced how much of its nickel can be extracted from the ground.
Production quotas were reduced by around 40% this year compared to 2025. Weda Bay, the largest nickel mine on Earth, had its allowance cut by more than 70% and exhausted its full-year quota by the end of May, halting mining entirely; it cannot resume large-scale extraction until next year unless regulators grant an extension.
The policy has sparked a vivid debate in Indonesian policy circles: how can the country shift its strategy from a decade of mining vast quantities of cheap nickel to producing a high-value and low-carbon material that the rest of the world wants for EV batteries.
The cuts aren’t a silver bullet to clean up Indonesia’s nickel industry, whose smelters are powered by coal – the most polluting fossil fuels. But alongside stricter enforcement of environmental rules, it is one side of efforts to produce more sustainable nickel for a premium.
Restricting Indonesia’s nickel output
Production quotas were introduced to stop the collapse of nickel prices because of oversupply in the market. Prices had fallen more than 40% in 2023 alone and kept sliding as Indonesian supply kept growing, hitting a four-year low of around $13,900 a ton in late 2025.
Critics called the recent tightening of production quotas proof that Indonesia’s nickel strategy has failed, arguing that the industry shouldn’t need to throttle its own output to survive. But when assessed against what the policy was supposed to do – push up nickel prices – it has worked. Prices jumped to $20,000 a ton in May, the highest since 2024.
Chinese industry groups representing companies that have invested billions to mine and refine the country’s nickel were furious, warning Indonesia’s president Prabowo Subianto that the cuts put $50 billion worth of investment at risk. But much of that Chinese capital is sunk into smelters and processing plants built specifically to run on Indonesian ore, and cannot simply be moved elsewhere. That gives Jakarta more room to hold its ground than the warning suggests.
Stronger environmental enforcement
Since the start of the year, Indonesia’s forestry task force has seized more than four million hectares of land from mines and plantations operating illegally in protected forests, collecting over two trillion rupiah ($113 million) in fines.
This included 148 hectares seized from Weda Bay for lacking a forestry permit. The share of nickel produced from illegal small-scale mining also fell from about a quarter in 2022 to roughly 10% by 2024.
The crackdown responds to serious environmental damages in the nickel industry. On Obi Island, a waste pond collapsed after heavy rain in June 2025, flooding three villages and killing a resident. Internal company tests found chromium-6 – a carcinogen – in the water, in quantities far above the legal limit. The footprint of another mine near Raja Ampat, which is home to some of the world’s richest coral reefs, grew 60-fold in just eight years.

The market is responding to early cleanup efforts. Low-carbon nickel now sells for a real premium, roughly $18,800 to $19,300 a ton compared with $17,900 to $18,300 otherwise, as carmakers seek to source cleaner materials to comply with the European Union’s new emissions rules for imports.
In turn, this is incentivising the industry to do more to green its operations. Vale Indonesia’s smelter in South Sulawesi now runs almost entirely on hydropower, for example.
None of this addresses coal use, however. Major Indonesian nickel producers still emitted an estimated 15 million metric tons of greenhouse gases in 2023. Indonesia may be cracking down on illegal mining and rewarding cleaner producers but it is still running its mines on the dirtiest fuel available.
Unequal benefits
For Indonesia to truly benefit from producing cleaner and high-value nickel, it needs to reap the economic benefits too. Although the industry has boosted the country’s economic growth, the reality on the ground tells a different story.
Konawe in Southeast Sulawesi is home to a major smelting complex. Growth in the district jumped from 6% to 22% between 2015 and 2023, driven almost entirely by the nickel industry, according to a study by the Lowy Institute study. At the same time, poverty levels increased slightly and unemployment remained unchanged.
In Halmahera, another epicentre of the nickel industry, spending by the poorest fifth grew just 5% between 2019 and 2022, compared with 28% for the wealthiest fifth, according to a separate study.
Part of the reason for this inequality is the system for transferring mining royalties to district authorities where the mines are located. In theory, they are entitled to the largest share. But in practice, payments are delayed, companies routinely dispute what they owe and royalties are pooled and distributed across a larger area.
The Natural Resource Governance Institute has found that decentralisation handed local governments power to approve new mines faster than they could build their capacity to manage them. Higher output raises national income on paper, but local governments remain constrained by fiscal rules and infrastructure costs that scale with mining.
None of this makes the 2026 quota cuts a mistake. Indonesia has every right to defend its pricing power over a resource it controls. But limiting extraction isn’t going to fix underlying issues around environmental enforcement and revenue-sharing. That requires rules that are consistently enforced, royalties that reach communities living by the mines, and a plan to wean smelters off coal.
The post Indonesia’s nickel production cuts are not enough to create a sustainable industry appeared first on Climate Home News.
Indonesia’s nickel production cuts are not enough to create a sustainable industry
Climate Change
Risk of “catastrophic” oil spill reaching Kimberley coast found in Woodside’s Scott Reef gas drilling plans
SYDNEY, Monday 24 August 2026 – New analysis of Woodside modelling released by Greenpeace Australia Pacific and Environs Kimberley has revealed the oil and gas corporation’s plans to drill at Scott Reef could cause an oil spill up to 30 times bigger than the 2009 Montara disaster, impacting the Kimberley coastline and reaching as far as Indonesia.
The new analysis details the “catastrophic” oil spill risk put to environmental regulators for approval by Woodside in its Browse to North West Shelf Project (Browse) plans, the worst-case scenario being a blowout directly below Scott Reef, polluting whale migratory pathways and covering isolated turtle nesting ground with oil condensate.
An FOI application (F348) revealed the federal environment department (DCCEEW) asked offshore oil and gas regulator NOPSEMA to look into the oil spill risk in 2025. NOPSEMA’s response to the application refused access to its report, and one document shows DCCEEW sought further advice this year.
Greenpeace and Environs Kimberley are calling on the Federal Government to publicly release the NOPSEMA report given the risk of an uncontrolled release of oil condensate from directly below Scott Reef.
Hannah Schuch, Senior Campaigner at Greenpeace Australia Pacific, said: “Woodside is aware that drilling at Scott Reef risks a massive oil spill that would have severe, far-reaching consequences. It appears environmental regulators are aware too.
“The state and federal governments need to take this risk from Woodside’s drilling plans seriously, as they could end up allowing the worst oil spill in Australian history.
“The pygmy blue whales that migrate up and down the WA coast with their newborns each year could be swimming and feeding in toxic, oil-slicked water. Woodside’s proposal to drill at Scott Reef is an environmental disaster waiting to happen, and the WA and federal governments have one surefire way to prevent catastrophe — reject Browse.”
Martin Prichard, Executive Director at Environs Kimberley, said: “A catastrophic oil spill by Woodside would be disastrous not just for marine life in the area but also for the Kimberley’s $500 million tourism industry.
“The state and federal governments will see five marine parks on the Kimberley coast included in the risk area of a catastrophic Woodside oil spill.
“The Montara oil spill was disastrous for West Timor with the toxic oil destroying seaweed farmers’ livelihoods. The Kimberley dodged a bullet with Montara, we were lucky the spill didn’t head our way. Myself and a crew flew over the Montara oil spill and followed it as far as we could. It was like a scene from a disaster movie.”
After the WA Environmental Protection Authority deemed Browse “unacceptable” due, in part, to oil spill risk, Woodside submitted a mitigation plan based on technology that has never been used “in anger”, a weakness stated in an independent expert review of the plan.
Professor Richard Steiner, independent oil spill expert, said: “A large offshore spill is impossible to effectively contain or recover. Historically, only 2-6% of total spill volume is recovered and the ecological injury from the release of toxic hydrocarbons in the sea can be severe, extensive, and long-term.
“Here in Alaska, government research concludes that several marine populations injured by the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill, including whales, fish, and seabirds, are still not recovering today, 37 years later. We should expect similar long-term ecological impacts in Western Australia if there were to be a major oil spill. The only sure way to avoid the risk of a catastrophic marine oil spill is to not develop oil and gas projects in marine environments.”
-ENDS-
Media contact
Emma Sangalli on emma.sangalli@greenpeace.org or 0431 513 465
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Carbon Footprint2 years agoUS SEC’s Climate Disclosure Rules Spur Renewed Interest in Carbon Credits





