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2024年,清洁能源技术对中国经济的贡献率首次达到10%以上,相关销售和投资总额达到13.6万亿元人民币(1.9万亿美元)。
在2024年,清洁能源行业推动了四分之一的国内生产总值(GDP)增长,其市场规模已超过房地产销售。

Carbon Brief根据官方、行业数据和分析师报告进行的最新行业分析显示,清洁技术在中国经济中的作用日益增强,尤其是所谓的“新三样”行业,即太阳能、电动汽车和电池。

本篇分析对“清洁能源”行业的定义较为宽泛,涵盖可再生能源、核能、电网、储能、电动汽车和铁路。这些技术和基础设施是中国推动能源生产和使用脱碳的关键。

其他关键调研结果包括:

  • 2024年清洁能源投资达到6.8万亿元人民币(9400亿美元),同比增长7%。相比2023年40%的增速,这一增长有所放缓,但符合预期趋势。
  • 中国对清洁能源的投资规模接近全球对化石燃料的投资总额,其体量相当于沙特阿拉伯的经济总量。
  • 作为“新三样”,电动汽车、电池和太阳能仍然是清洁能源行业的核心驱动力,三者创造了四分之三的附加值,并吸引了该行业一半以上的投资。
  • 2024年,清洁能源行业经济产出的增长拉动了其对GDP的贡献,而2023年主要依靠投资增长带动。
  • 若考虑整个生产链的产值,清洁能源行业对中国经济的总体贡献为 13.6万亿元人民币(1.9万亿美元),略高于GDP总量的10%。
  • 该行业的增长速度是中国整体经济增速的三倍,占2024年GDP增长的26%。
  • 值得注意的是,若无清洁技术的增长,中国2024年的GDP增速可能仅为3.6%,远低于官方公布的5.0%目标。

展望2025年,清洁能源投资可能会进一步增长,因为许多大型项目正加快推进,以试图在“十四五”规划(2021-2025年)结束前完工。

在此之后,清洁能源行业的发展将很大程度上取决于下一份五年规划设定的新目标和政策,该计划即于今年制定。

清洁能源达到GDP里程碑

2023年,在清洁能源行业巨大的产能投资浪潮推动下,该行业贡献了中国约40%的经济增长。

正如去年的分析所预测,超常规的投资增长率在2024年不可避免地会降温,而新的数据也证明了这一趋势。

尽管如此,2024年清洁能源行业的投资仍然保持增长,并且该行业的商品和服务产值增速依然超过20%。

因此,正如下图所示,2024年清洁能源行业占中国GDP的比重首次超过10%。

清洁能源行业对中国GDP贡献的比重,%。
清洁能源行业对中国GDP贡献的比重,%。来源:CREA / Carbon Brief

清洁能源行业对中国经济的整体贡献达到13.6万亿元人民币(1.9万亿美元),其规模与沙特阿拉伯或瑞士等主要经济体相当。

同时,该行业在中国经济中的比重已超过房地产销售(9.6万亿元人民币)和农业(9.1万亿元人民币)。

电动汽车和太阳能是增长主要驱动力

2024年清洁能源行业的生产和投资总值预计增长了13%,自2022年以来则增长了50%,如下图所示。

清洁能源行业对中国GDP和GDP增长的贡献;单位:万亿元,2022-2024年。
清洁能源行业对中国GDP和GDP增长的贡献;单位:万亿元,2022-2024年。来源:CREA / Carbon Brief

这些行业的商品和服务产值增长了21%,达到6.8万亿元人民币(9500亿美元)。

总体而言,电动汽车生产是最具价值的细分行业,其次是清洁能源生产、铁路运输、电力传输与储存,以及能源效率。

下表详细列出了各行业和活动的具体数据。

China-renewable-table

价格下跌促进采用,但对生产商构成挑战

在全球大多数经济体都在担忧高通胀之际,中国却面临通货紧缩的压力,主要原因是制造业快速扩张,而国内需求相对疲软。

多个关键清洁能源行业都受到这一趋势的影响。尽管产量不断增长,但供过于求导致收入和利润增长乏力,使该行业的实际贡献在一定程度上被忽视。

以太阳能电池板制造为例,尽管产量大幅增长,但行业名义产值下降了41%。

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不过,由于项目数量激增,加上太阳能电池板成本仅占整个太阳能发电项目成本的不到三分之一,太阳能项目的投资名义价值仍保持稳定。

太阳能发电电力价值增长了40%,使得太阳能行业对名义GDP增长的总体贡献率上升至正值。

总体来看,清洁能源行业的增加值按名义计算增长了约8.5%,低于实际增长率的15%,但仍远高于GDP增速,占名义GDP增长的17%。

2024年12月,一场重要的年度经济政策会议强调,需要“积极营造绿色低碳产业健康发展生态”。这表明政府可能会采取措施解决清洁制造业供应过剩和该行业盈利能力较弱的问题。

清洁能源经济快速增长的影响

清洁能源行业连续第二年在中国经济增长目标的实现中发挥了关键作用。

供应增加和价格下降的双重因素,导致中国清洁能源部署速度远超几年前的预期,同时也促进了清洁能源在新兴海外市场的部署。

预计这一增长趋势将在2025年延续,这主要得益于多个重大项目都致力于在“十四五”规划(2021-2025年)收官前完工。

2025年以后,该行业的发展将在很大程度上取决于今年即将完成的下一个五年计划(2026-2030年)中的新目标和政策。

随着近几年清洁能源发电装机容量的闪电式扩张,该行业正陷入盈利能力下降和产能过剩的困境。

若要恢复行业盈利能力,中国既需要保持强劲的国内需求,也需要采取措施解决产能过剩问题。此外,弃电问题(尤其对太阳能发电产生限制)也亟需解决,以确保市场需求能持续释放。

根据中国主要部委提出的2030年和2035年目标所显示的初步迹象,中国难以将关键清洁能源技术需求维持在2023-2024年水平。

如果清洁能源行业在下一个五年规划时期的目标低于当前部署速度,该行业可能从拉动GDP增长的推动力转变为拖累因素,并加剧供过于求的问题。相反,更具雄心的清洁能源目标将有助于保持该行业对经济的积极贡献。

鉴于清洁能源在投资增长中发挥的重要作用,政府的经济刺激措施可能会支持清洁能源领域的投资。

此外,清洁能源现在在中国经济增长中的关键作用,也使得政策制定者更有动力确保该行业的健康发展。

The post 分析:2024年清洁能源对中国GDP的贡献将达到创纪录的10% appeared first on Carbon Brief.

分析:2024年清洁能源对中国GDP的贡献将达到创纪录的10%

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Carbon Brief Quiz 2026: Picture Round 1 and 2

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All answers will need to be submitted via the Google form by the end of the half-time break

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Landmark deal to share Chile’s lithium windfall fractures Indigenous communities

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Rudecindo Espíndola’s family has been growing corn, figs and other crops for generations in the Soncor Valley in northern Chile, an oasis of green orchards in one of the driest places on Earth the Atacama desert.

Perched nearly 2,500 metres above sea level, his village, Toconao, means “lost corner” in the Kunza language of the Indigenous people who have lived and farmed the land in this remote spot for millennia.

“Our deep connection to this place is based on what we have inherited from our ancestors: our culture, our language,” said Espíndola, a member of a local research team that found evidence that people have inhabited the desert for more than 12,000 years.

This distant outpost is at the heart of the global rush for lithium, a silvery-white metal used to make batteries for electric vehicles (EV) and renewable energy storage that are vital to the world’s clean energy transition. The Atacama salt flat is home to about 25% of the world’s known lithium reserves, turning Chile into the world’s second-largest lithium producer after Australia.

For decades, the Atacama’s Indigenous Lickanantay people have protested against the expansion of the lithium industry, warning that the large evaporation ponds used to extract lithium from the brine beneath the salt flats are depleting scarce and sacred water supplies and destroying fragile desert ecosystems.

Espíndola joined the protests, fearing that competition for water could pose an existential threat to his community.

But last year, he was among dozens of Indigenous representatives who sat across the table from executives representing two Chilean mining giants to hammer out a governance model that gives Indigenous communities living close to lithium sites a bigger say over operations, and a greater share of the economic benefits.

A man wearing a black T-shirt and a hat stands in front of a tree
Rudecindo Espíndola stands in a green oasis near the village of Toconao in the Atacama desert (Photo: Francisco Parra)

A pioneering deal

The agreement is part of a landmark deal between state-owned copper miner Codelco and lithium producer the Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile (SQM) to extract lithium from the salt flats until 2060 through a joint venture called NovaAndino Litio.

The governance model that promises people living in Toconao and other villages around the salt flats millions of dollars in benefits and greater environmental oversight is the first of its kind in mineral-rich Chile, and has been hailed by industry experts as the start of a potential model for more responsible mining for energy transition metals.

NovaAndino told Climate Home News the negotiations with local communities represented an “unprecedented process that has allowed us to incorporate the territory’s vision early in the project’s design” and creates “a system of permanent engagement” with local communities.

The company added it will contribute to sustainable development in the area and help “the safeguarding of [the Lickanantay people’s] culture and environmental values”.

    For mining companies, such agreements could help reduce social conflicts and protests, which have delayed and stalled extraction in other parts of South America’s lithium-rich region, known as the lithium triangle.

    “Argentina and Bolivia could learn a lot from what we’re doing [here],” said Rodrigo Guerrero, a researcher at the Santiago-based Espacio Público think-tank, adding that adopting participatory frameworks early on could prevent them from “going through the entire cycle of disputes” that Chile has experienced.

    Justice at last?

    As part of the governance deal, NovaAndino has pledged to adopt technologies that will reduce water use and mitigate the environmental impacts of lithium extraction.

    It has also committed to hold more than 100 annual meetings with community representatives to build a “good faith” relationship, and an Indigenous Advisory Council will meet twice a year with the company’s sustainability committee to discuss its environmental strategy, company sources said. The meetings are due to begin next month.

    To oversee the agreement’s implementation, an assembly – composed of representatives from all 25 signatory communities – will track the project’s progress. In addition, NovaAndino will hold one-on-one meetings with each community to address issues such as the hiring of local people and the protection of Indigenous employees.

    A flamingo at the Chaxa Lagoon in the Atacama salt flat (Photo: REUTERS/Cristian Rudolffi)

    Espíndola said the deal, while far from perfect, was an important step forward.

    “Previously, Indigenous participation was ambiguous. Now we talk about participation at [every] hierarchical level of this process, a very strong empowerment for Indigenous communities,” said Espíndola, adding that it did not give local communities everything they had asked for. For instance, they will not hold veto power over NovaAndino’s decisions or have a formal shareholder role.

    But after years of conflict with mining companies, a form of “participatory justice is being done”, he said.

    Not everyone is convinced that the accord, pushed by Chile’s former leftist government, marks progress, however.

    “Not in our name”

    The negotiations have caused deep divisions among the Lickanantay, some of whom say greater engagement with mining companies will not stop irreparable damage to the salt flats on which their traditional way of life depends. Others fear the promise of more money will further erode community bonds.

    In January 2024, Indigenous communities from five villages closest to the mining operations, including Toconao, blocked the main access roads to the lithium extraction sites. They said the Council of Atacameño Peoples, which represents 18 Lickanantay communities and was leading discussions with the company, no longer spoke for them.

    Official transcripts of consultations on the extension of the lithium contracts and how to share the promised benefits reveal deep divisions. Tensions peaked when communities around the mining operations clashed over how to distribute the multimillion-dollar windfall, with villages closest to the mining sites demanding the largest share.

    Eventually, separate deals establishing a new governance framework over mining activities were reached between Codelco and SQM with 25 local communities, including a specific agreement for the five villages closest to the extraction sites.

    Codelco’s chairman Maximo Pacheco (Photo: REUTERS/Rodrigo Garrido)

    The division caused by the separate deal for the five villages “will cause historic damage” to the unity of the Atacama desert’s Indigenous peoples, said Hugo Flores, president of the Council of Atacameño Associations, a separate group representing farmers, herders and local workers who oppose the mining expansion.

    Sonia Ramos, 83, a renowned Lickanantay healer and well-known anti-mining activist, lamented the fracturing of social bonds over money, and for the sake of meeting government objectives.

    “There is fragmentation among the communities themselves. Everything has transformed into disequilibrium,” said the 83-year-old.

    “[NovaAndino] supposedly has economic significance for the country, but for us, it is the opposite,” she said.

    The company told Climate Home News it has “acted consistently” to promote “transparent, voluntary, and good-faith dialogue with the communities in the territory, recognising their diversity and autonomy, and always respecting their timelines and forms of participation”.

    A one-off deal or a model for others?

    The NovaAndino joint venture is a pillar of Chile’s strategy to double lithium production by 2031 and consolidate the copper-producing nation’s role in the clean energy transition as demand for battery minerals accelerates.

    Chile’s new far-right president, José Antonio Kast, who was sworn in last week, promised to respect the lithium contracts signed by his predecessor’s administration – including the governance model.

    Still, some experts say the splits over the new model highlight the need for legislation that mandates direct engagement and minimum community benefits for all large mining projects.

    “In the past, this has lent itself to clientelism, communities who negotiate best or arrive first get the better deal,” said Pedro Zapata, a programme officer in Chile for the Natural Resource Governance Institute.

    “This can be to the detriment of other communities with less strength. We cannot have first- and second-class citizens subject to the same industry,” he added.

    The government is already negotiating two more public-private partnerships to extract lithium with mining giant Rio Tinto, which it said would include a framework to engage with Indigenous communities and share some of the revenues. The details will need to be negotiated between local people, the government and the company.

    Sharing the benefits of mining

    Under the deal in the Atacama, NovaAndino will run SQM’s current lithium concessions until they expire in 2030 before seeking new permits to expand mining in the region under a vast project known as “Salar Futuro” – a process which will require further mandatory consultations with communities.

    Besides the participatory mechanism, the new agreement promises more money than ever before for salt flat communities.

    A stone arch welcomes visitors to the village of Peine, one of the closest settlements to lithium mining sites in the Atacama salt flat (Photo: REUTERS/Cristian Rudolffi)

    Depending on the global price of lithium and their proximity to the mining operations, Indigenous communities could collectively receive roughly $30 million annually in funding – about double what SQM currently disburses under existing contracts.

    When taking into account the company’s payments to local and regional authorities, contributions could reach $150 million annually, according to the government.

    To access these resources, each community will need to submit a pipeline of projects they would like funding for under a complex arrangement that includes five separate financial streams:

    • A general investment fund will distribute funding based on each village’s size and proximity to the mining sites
    • A development fund will support projects specifically in the five communities closest to the extraction sites
    • Contributions to farmers and livestock associations
    • Contributions to local governments
    • A groundbreaking “intergenerational fund” held in trust for the Lickanantay until 2060

    For many isolated communities in the Atacama desert, financial contributions from mining firms have funded essential public services, such as healthcare and facilities like football pitches and swimming pools.

    In the past, communities have used some of the benefits they received from mining to build their own environmental monitoring units, hiring teams of hydrogeologists and lawyers to scrutinise miners’ activities.

    Espíndola said the new model could pave the way for more ambitious development projects such as water treatment plants and community solar energy projects.

    A man in a white shirt and glasses stands in front of a stone wall
    Sergio Cubillos, president of the Peine community, was one of the Indigenous representatives in the negotiations with Codelco and SQM (Photo credit: Formando Rutas/ Daniela Carvajal)

    Competition for water

    The depletion of water resources is one of local people’s biggest environmental concerns.

    To extract lithium from the salt flats, miners pump lithium-rich brine accumulated over millions of years in underground reservoirs into gigantic pools, where the water is left to evaporate under the sun and leaves behind lithium carbonate.

    One study has shown that the practice is causing the salt flat to sink by up to two centimetres a year. SQM recently said its current operations consume approximately 11,500 to 12,500 litres of industrial freshwater for every metric ton of lithium produced.

    NovaAndino has committed to significantly reduce the company’s water use by returning at least 30% of the water it extracts from the brine and eliminating the use of all freshwater in its operations within five years of obtaining an environmental permit.

      Cristina Dorador, a microbiologist at the University of Antofagasta, told Climate Home News that reinjecting the water underground is untested at a large scale and could impact the chemical composition of the salt flats.

      Continuing to extract lithium from the flats until 2060 could be the “final blow” for this fragile ecosystem, she said.

      Asked to comment on such concerns, NovaAndino said any new technology will be “subject to the highest regulatory standards”, and pledged to ensure transparency through “an updated monitoring system with the participation of Indigenous communities”.

      High price for hard-won gains

      For the five communities living on the doorstep of the lithium pools, one of the biggest gains is being granted physical access to the mining sites to monitor the lithium extraction and its impact on the salt flats.

      That is a first and will strengthen communities’ ability to call out environmental harms, said Sergio Cubillos, the community president of Peine, the village closest to the evaporation ponds. It could also give them the means to seek remediation through the courts if necessary, Espíndola said.

      Gaining such rights represents long-overdue progress, Cubillos said, but it has come at a high price for the Lickanantay people.

      “Communities receiving money today is what has ultimately led to this division, because we haven’t been able to figure out what we want, how we want it, and how we envision our future as a people,” he said.

      Main image: A truck loads concentrated brine at SQM’s lithium mine at the Atacama salt flat in Chile (Photo: REUTERS/Ivan Alvarado)

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      Roadmap launched to restart deadlocked UN plastics treaty talks

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      Diplomats will hold a series of informal meetings this year in a bid to revive stalled talks over a global treaty to curb plastic pollution, before aiming to reconvene for the next round of official negotiations at the end of 2026 or early 2027.

      Hoping to find a long-awaited breakthrough in the deeply divided UN process, the chair of the talks, Chilean ambassador Julio Cordano, released a roadmap on Monday to inject momentum into the discussions after negotiations collapsed at a chaotic session in Geneva last August.

      Cordano wrote in a letter that countries would meet in Nairobi from June 30 to July 3 for informal discussions to review all the components of the negotiations, including thorny issues such as efforts to limit soaring plastic production.

        The gathering should result in the drafting of a new document laying the foundations of a future treaty text with options on elements with divergent views, but “no surprises” such as new ideas or compromise proposals. This plan aims to address the fact that countries left Geneva without a draft text to work on – something Cordano called a “significant limitation” in his letter.

        “Predictable pathway”

        The meeting in the Kenyan capital will follow a series of virtual consultations every four to six weeks, where heads of country delegations will exchange views on specific topics. A second in-person meeting aimed at finding solutions might take place in early October, depending on the availability of funding.

        Cordano said the roadmap should offer “a predictable pathway” in the lead-up to the next formal negotiating session, which is expected to take place over 10 days at the end of 2026 or early 2027. A host country has yet to be selected, but Climate Home News understands that Brazil, Azerbaijan or Kenya – the home of the UN Environment Programme – have been put forward as options.

        Countries have twice failed to agree on a global plastics treaty at what were meant to be final rounds of negotiations in December 2024 and August 2025.

        Divisions on plastic production

        One of the most divisive elements of the discussions remains what the pact should do about plastic production, which, according to the UN, is set to triple by 2060 without intervention.

        A majority, which includes most European, Latin American, African and Pacific island nations, wants to limit the manufacturing of plastic to “sustainable levels”. But large fossil fuel and petrochemical producers, led by Saudi Arabia, the United States, Russia and India, say the treaty should only focus on managing plastic waste.

        As nearly all plastic is made from planet-heating oil, gas and coal, the sector’s trajectory will have a significant impact on global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

        Countries still far apart

        After an eight-month hiatus, informal discussions restarted in early March at an informal meeting of about 20 countries hosted by Japan.

        A participant told Climate Home News that, while the gathering had been helpful to test ideas, progress remained “challenging”, with national stances largely unchanged.

        The source added that countries would need to achieve a significant shift in positions in the coming months to make reconvening formal negotiations worthwhile.

        Deep divisions persist as plastics treaty talks restart at informal meeting

        Jacob Kean-Hammerson, global plastics policy lead at Greenpeace USA, said the new roadmap offers an opportunity for countries to “defend and protect the most critical provisions on the table”.

        He said that the document expected after the Nairobi meeting “must include and revisit proposals backed by a large number of countries, especially on plastic production, that have previously been disregarded”.

        “These measures are essential to addressing the crisis at its source and must be reinstated as a key part of the negotiations,” he added.

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        Roadmap launched to restart deadlocked UN plastics treaty talks

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