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Uganda’s government has defended plans to ramp up its nascent oil industry by citing a contested scenario for rising fossil fuel use that is favoured by the Trump administration over more climate-friendly models.

Energy analysts have warned that the East African nation’s drive to fund development by producing and exporting oil is a risky strategy due to projections of cost overruns and over-supplied markets as the world transitions away from fossil fuels.

Asked to comment on such warnings, a spokesperson for the Petroleum Authority of Uganda (PAU) referred to the Current Policies Scenario outlined in the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2025 (WEO) report.

One of several different scenarios in the report, that scenario is the most negative on climate action – assuming current policies and no further emissions cuts – and projects that oil demand will continue to rise until at least 2050

“This position is aligned to Uganda’s development aspirations that will leverage our oil and gas resources,” the PAU spokesperson told Climate Home News.

    The issue highlights the stakes for Uganda as it invests heavily in oil infrastructure and also shows how U.S. pushback against climate action under President Donald Trump is being used to justify new fossil fuel projects.

    IEA’s “cautious” scenario

    The IEA’s annual World Energy Outlook report includes long-term projections for global trends on energy demand and supply, investments, government policies as well as the climate and transition targets that might affect energy markets in the years to come.

    They include several different scenarios including the Stated Policies Scenario, which reflects policies already implemented or announced and the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario, which maps out a pathway to achieve specific energy and climate-related goals. Under the Stated Policies Scenario, oil demand is set to peak around 2030.

    The Current Policies Scenario (CPS) was removed from the WEO scenarios in 2020 but was reintroduced in last year’s report following pressure from the Trump administration, which has criticised the agency’s climate focus and urged it to include outlooks that better reflect continued fossil fuel use.

    Tanzania pushed African nations to oppose fossil fuel transition at COP30

    The Paris-based energy body describes the CPS as “cautious” and based on enacted laws and measures.

    Asked to comment on Uganda’s citing of the CPS to justify its oil industry plans, an IEA spokesperson said none of the scenarios were forecasts and “the IEA does not assign likelihoods of one scenario prevailing over another”.

    “There is no single storyline about the future of energy,” the spokesperson said, adding that it was up to governments and other stakeholders to explore the consequences of policy choices related to issues such as energy security, affordability and sustainability.

    Protecting the economy?

    Uganda’s oil ambitions involve developing two oilfields on the shores of Lake Albert – Tilenga and Kingfisher – and building the 900-mile (1,443-km) East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), with the aim of transporting 230,000 barrels of crude per day to Tanzania’s Tanga port for export.

    Officials from the government of President Yoweri Museveni say domestic crude production and a planned refinery will cut reliance on imported petroleum products and protect the economy.

    Ugandan Minister of Energy and Mineral Development Ruth Nankabirwa Ssentamu speaks during an interview at the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29), in Baku, Azerbaijan November 15, 2024. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov

    Ugandan Minister of Energy and Mineral Development Ruth Nankabirwa Ssentamu speaks during an interview at the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29), in Baku, Azerbaijan November 15, 2024. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov

    But climate and energy experts say the plan is risky. A report published this month by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis found that Uganda stands to benefit far less from oil production than previously projected.

    The country’s use of the IEA’s Current Policies Scenario raises further questions, said Dave Jones, chief analyst at Ember, an independent, non-profit energy think-tank focused on accelerating the global energy transition.

    [Using] the CPS, from a perspective of oil demand, is extraordinarily unrealistic,” he told Climate Home News. He said the CPS was not the IEA’s lead scenario “so countries should not give much weight to it”.

    He noted, for instance, that the CPS assumes the same number of electric vehicles are sold in 2050 as 2024 in the world outside of China and the EU.

    “This is completely at odds with all the evidence of 2025, which shows EVs’ sales share is soaring across many countries, especially emerging countries,” he said.

    African banks back oil export pipeline despite climate commitments

    Terry Githinji, Africa programme manager at Oil Change International, a research and advocacy group, said it was “alarming” that Uganda was relying on the most fossil-heavy IEA scenario to justify expanding oil production – warning of the dire climate and social impacts that such a path would entail.

    “Betting Uganda’s future on a high-risk fossil pathway that enriches foreign oil companies while leaving Ugandans to bear the economic and climate risks is a dangerous gamble, especially when the IEA’s own analysis shows renewables are cheaper, create more jobs, and deliver energy access faster,” Githinji added.

    The post Uganda cites contentious IEA fossil fuel scenario backed by Trump administration appeared first on Climate Home News.

    Uganda cites contentious IEA fossil fuel scenario backed by Trump administration

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    Threads of Earth’s Underground Fungal Networks Are Long Enough to Reach Beyond the Solar System

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    For the first time ever, researchers have quantified the length and mass of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal networks globally and mapped the ecosystems where they are densest.

    Hidden underground around the world lie 110 quadrillion kilometers of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal networks—webs of ultra-thin threads that, if connected in a single line, would stretch almost a billion times thge distance between the Earth and the sun, according to new research published in Science on Thursday. 

    Threads of Earth’s Underground Fungal Networks Are Long Enough to Reach Beyond the Solar System

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    Fewer journalists register for Bonn talks, as cuts to climate reporting bite

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    The number of journalists registered to attend the annual climate negotiations in Bonn has declined this year, as climate reporters have been let go and media coverage of climate issues falls around the world.

    Data from UN Climate Change, which runs the two weeks of talks, shows that just 135 media representatives have signed up to attend. Climate Home News analysis of previous data shows this is the lowest figure since 2021, when COVID-19 restrictions limited travel and the Bonn talks were held in a hybrid format to enable online participation.

    The number of journalists that actually attend the talks will not be known until later this month but is typically significantly less than are registered. Press conferences, held back-to-back each day by campaign groups, have been sparsely attended in the first few days and often filled mainly with climate campaigners and researchers rather than journalists.

    Alexandra Endres, a reporter for German-language website Table Briefings, told Climate Home News in Bonn there are fewer German journalists covering the conference in-person. “I think it is important to have more journalists covering the negotiations because when the climate coverage increases, the interest of the public grows,” she said.

    Media outlets that have registered fewer journalists than previous years, or no journalists, include global heavyweights like Reuters, Bloomberg and the BBC, as well as German outlets like Deutsche Welle and ZDF television, and specialist publications like business information service Argus and climate broadcaster We Don’t Have Time.

    Activist Harjeet Singh, who is in Bonn advising the Fossil Fuel Treaty Initiative, said that “the empty press seats here in Bonn are a warning signal. While the world’s gaze is often fixed on the annual COP summits, the real-world consequences of the climate crisis—from financing the fossil fuel transition to protecting vulnerable populations—are being shaped, or ignored, in these mid-year negotiations right now.”

    “Journalists are the essential eyes and ears of the public,” he said. “We need them to shine a light on these rooms: hold negotiators accountable, defend the principles of equity and historical responsibility, and ensure that ‘technical’ negotiations do not become an excuse for delay.”

    UN Climate Change said they could not comment on the situation at this point in the Bonn talks.

    Climate coverage is falling

    Outside of Bonn and the official UN climate negotiations, coverage of climate change is falling to lows not seen since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to analysis of newspapers and television reporting conducted by the Media and Climate Change Observatory (MECCO).

    MECCO’s head Max Boykoff told Climate Home News that climate coverage in the first five months of 2025 was 35% down on the same period of 2025 and 41% less than in 2021. New analysis by the Yale Programme on Climate Change Communication found a similar fall in climate coverage in 2026.

    Boykoff said media attention has been drawn away from climate change to issues like the Iran war and now the World Cup getting underway in North America.

    While both stories have climate implications, he said, the media have “failed to connect the dots” on the conflict in the Middle East, with coverage focusing on the politics, air strikes and violence of the war. “Reporters have been pulling up short,” he said.

    He added that since 2025 there have been cuts to climate teams at US outlets like the Washington Post, CBS, National Public Radio and the Los Angeles Times. On top of this, the Thomson Reuters Foundation’s Context website has been shut down and Politico recently folded specialist environmental outlet E&E News into its broader energy coverage.

    Mark Hertsgaard, head of global journalism collaboration Covering Climate Now, also said that fewer reporters at Bonn is “part of a larger pattern”. He said no US television network sent reporters to the recent Santa Marta conference on transitioning away from fossil fuels “and as a result they missed covering what turned out to be a landmark development in the climate story”.

      “No one can know if the Bonn talks will yield something similar until the [they] actually take place and conclude. But the fewer journalists that are on the scene, the less the world’s people and policymakers will know about that. And that’s a problem,” he said.

      Media may also have been put off from attending by a new registration system which is more complicated, especially for freelance journalists. In addition, the rise in jet fuel prices has made travelling by plane to Bonn much more expensive than last year and reporters from many developing countries continue to face hurdles getting visas to enter the Schengen area, of which Germany is part.

      Diego Arguedas Ortiz, who led the Oxford Climate Journalism Network from 2022 until it was shut down by the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism in 2025, said journalists can’t cover the talks so well remotely.

      While press conferences, plenaries and open negotiating sessions are broadcast for the public to watch on the UNFCCC’s website, Ortiz said relying solely on this means “you miss the interviews in the hall”.

      “You can´t catch scientists and ministers as they leave the rooms. And the audience is back home suffering. Because audiences are relying on reporters and editors to explain how these seemingly abstract negotiations have daily implications for them,” he explained.

      The post Fewer journalists register for Bonn talks, as cuts to climate reporting bite appeared first on Climate Home News.

      Fewer journalists register for Bonn talks, as cuts to climate reporting bite

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      Pennsylvania Activists Urge Lawmakers to Help Curb Soaring Electric Bills

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      Despite skyrocketing demand driven by data center development, the industry says it is not the cause of increasing costs for consumers.

      Advocates for lower electricity prices in Pennsylvania said Wednesday their goals can be achieved by requiring large-load users like data centers to supply their own power rather than taking it from the grid, by reducing utility profits and by speeding up the interconnection of new clean-energy projects.

      Pennsylvania Activists Urge Lawmakers to Help Curb Soaring Electric Bills

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