President Donald Trump’s move on Thursday to kickstart deep-sea mining could be a lifeline for the Canadian company that is pushing to be the first to supply strategic minerals from the ocean floor.
The firm signalled its intention weeks ago to seek permits from the US administration for the activity in a challenge to UN governance, but whether the gambit pays off remains to be seen. The plan faces strong opposition from many countries and scientists who fear the industry could have catastrophic effects on the ocean ecosystem.
Years of deadlock in global efforts to agree rules for commercial mining of the ocean floor had been straining the finances and patience of the Vancouver-based The Metals Company (TMC) – one of the most prominent among a clutch of aspiring deep-sea mining companies.
Then, in an abrupt shift in company policy, TMC Chief Executive Gerard Barron said in a statement at the end of March that it was time to bypass the International Seabed Authority (ISA) – the little-known UN body created by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
“What we need is a fair hearing and a regulator willing to engage,” said Barron, going on to accuse various actors at the ISA of acting in “bad faith” by obstructing the completion of a mining code.
“Looking back at our 16-year experience of the ISA brand of multilateralism, we believe the United States made the right decision when they chose not to ratify UNCLOS,” Barron said.
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The company’s share price – which has struggled since it listed in 2021 – jumped this week after Trump signed an executive order calling for deep-sea mining, including beyond US territorial waters, in a bid to secure critical minerals like nickel, cobalt and copper and counter China’s dominance in the sector.
“Vast offshore seabed areas hold critical minerals and energy resources,” Trump said in the order. “These resources are key to strengthening our economy, securing our energy future, and reducing dependence on foreign suppliers for critical minerals.”
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He directed his administration to expedite the issue of mining permits under the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resource Act (DSHMRA), a piece of largely untested legislation dating back to 1980 before UNCLOS existed.
Following Trump’s announcement, TMC’s Barron said that “with a stable, transparent, and enforceable regulatory pathway available under existing US law, we look forward to delivering the world’s first commercial nodule project – responsibly and economically”.
Financial lifeline
Crucially, the step could give TMC some financial breathing space.
“They have had very little money, and a lot of debt, for a long time,” Bobbi-Jo Dobush, a US.-based environmental attorney, told Climate Home before Trump’s order was signed on Thursday.
TMC made a net loss of over $81 million last year, with a total deficit of $631 million piled up since it began operating. According to its latest annual accounts, the company had only $3.5 million in the bank at the end of 2024 and access to a potential $41.5 million loan offered by its main investors, Silicon Valley financier Andrei Karkar and Gerard Barron himself.
A company spokesperson declined to comment on its financial position.
The wider deep-sea mining industry has been in choppy financial waters due to persistent uncertainty over its viability. Norwegian company Loke Marine Minerals filed for bankruptcy earlier this month after a long search for additional capital from investors proved unsuccessful, its CEO Walter Sognnes was quoted as telling Norwegian newspaper DN.
International backlash
The ISA has under its supervision huge swathes of the Pacific Ocean beyond national jurisdictions that hold the world’s largest reserves of polymetallic nodules – potato-sized rocks packed with minerals that have a multitude of industrial uses – from weapons to clean energy technology.
For years, diplomats at the ISA have been trying to hash out deep-sea mining standards but deep divisions persist and much work remains to be done. Thirty-two countries, including France, Germany and Canada, have also called for either a full ban or a precautionary pause in deep-sea mining activities.
That means Trump’s unilateral decision to expedite licences in both US and international waters is likely to spark a backlash from the international community.
“Any unilateral action would constitute a violation of international law and directly undermine the fundamental principles of multilateralism, the peaceful use of the oceans and the collective governance framework,” said Leticia Carvalho, the secretary general of the ISA, when TMC unveiled its plans in March. Dozens of nations, both in the Global North and South, echoed her opposition.
China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakan said on Friday the US move “violates international law and harms the collective interests of the international community”. China holds the largest number of exploration permits in the Pacific Ocean under the ISA, but it has been waiting for the mining rulebook’s completion before conducting any commercial extraction activity.
‘Rip up the deep sea for profit’
Trump’s executive order also drew immediate condemnation from environmentalists who say deep-sea mining would cause irreversible damage to the ocean ecosystem while being financially prohibitive and unnecessary because land-based mineral resources and recycling could cover demand.
“Authorizing deep-sea mining outside international law is like lighting a match in a room full of dynamite – it threatens ecosystems, global cooperation, and US credibility all at once,” said Arlo Hemphill of Greenpeace.
“The United States government has no right to unilaterally allow an industry to destroy the common heritage of humankind, and rip up the deep sea for the profit of a few corporations,” he added.
TMC is one of the companies with the most to potentially gain.
In a call with analysts in late March, an executive from the Vancouver-based firm indicated that the US backing could be a much-needed spur to attract external investment.
“If we get to the point where regulatory uncertainty is no longer there and, you know, things are moving along at a very fast clip, let’s say through the US process, well that may put us in a different financial position,” said Craig Shesky, the company’s CFO.
TMC’s rapid pivot
As recently as a few months ago, the company was still lobbying US lawmakers to get behind new legislation calling on the US government to support international governance of seafloor resource exploration.
TMC spent $312,000 on US lobbying activities in 2024, according to lobbying disclosure records.
It is unclear why TMC’s longstanding policy position changed, but during a presentation with analysts, company executives name-checked Steven Groves, a former White House staffer during Trump’s first term.
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Groves is a policy director at the Heritage Foundation, a fossil-fuel funded think-tank that routinely opposes climate policies and casts doubts on universally accepted climate science. He also co-edited ‘Project 2025’, the controversial 900-page conservative policy blueprint for reshaping the federal government.
TMC’s Shesky said Groves agreed that applying for a mining licence under DSHMRA would be “a viable path based on robust and well thought out regulations”.
Choppy waters ahead
But other experts vehemently disagree. Dobush told Climate Home it is “very ironic and highly likely untrue” that going through the United States provides regulatory certainty when the national legislation has never been used for exploitation.
In 2022, weapons maker Lockheed Martin – the only existing holder of DSHMRA exploration permits – said that activities had been delayed as a result of a lack of international recognition of the US licences.
Duncan Currie, legal advisor at the Deep Sea Conservation Coalition, said he expected plenty of potential legal issues down the line for TMC before any mining takes place.
For instance, countries like Canada, Switzerland and the Netherlands – where TMC and its partner Allseas are respectively based – could risk breaching the terms of the UNCLOS if they fail to prevent the companies from acting unilaterally, he said.
Nations that rely on the UNCLOS to protect their freedom of navigation or fisheries rights may also be motivated to prevent the US government from setting a precedent in sidestepping international governance.
“Island states and seafaring nations place a great deal of importance on UNCLOS,” added Currie. “I would imagine that those countries will be working to ensure that this doesn’t happen.”
The post Trump throws lifeline to Canadian deep-sea miner, setting scene for international clash appeared first on Climate Home News.
Trump throws lifeline to Canadian deep-sea miner, setting scene for international clash
This is a republication of November’s edition of The Climate Agenda – a subscriber-only newsletter designed to keep you informed of the key events, negotiations and announcements happening every month. If you want to receive The Climate Agenda straight to your inbox at the start of each month, sign up as a subscriber today.
COP31 begins in one week, and we’ll have five specialist reporters on the ground in Antalya, Türkiye, bringing you every development as it happens. From the negotiations to leaders’ speeches and side events, we’ll be there to dissect what it all means for international climate policy on electrification, just transition, adaptation finance and much more.
Here’s what you need to know for November, why it matters and what to expect.
US midterm elections
Tuesday 3 November – United States
The geopolitical highlight for the first week of November is the US midterm elections, which will show whether American voters are in any mood to forgive President Donald Trump for failing to bring down the cost of living. From an energy perspective, his pro-oil and gas stance hasn’t led to cheaper prices for consumers, pushed up by the US-instigated Iran conflict. And his diesel deal with Russia won’t yet have made a difference at the pump.
The key issue for climate and energy policy is whether the Republicans hold onto their governing trifecta. If so, then expect continued dismantling of regulations that protect the environment, as well as strong backing for fossil fuel production. If the Democrats regain control of Congress, which polls suggest is possible, it could trigger a push to restore Biden-era clean energy tax credits, and support states wanting to restart mothballed wind and solar projects.
Data centres have been a hot-wire issue, with growing community opposition to their expansion – partly due to concerns over rising utility bills as the facilities gobble power. Whether Republicans or Democrats win Congress, both are likely to make tech firms pay for the extra electricity production they need, with the latter favouring renewable sources.
Governor races are also taking place in key states for climate issues, including Democrat-run California, which has used the courts to fight Trump’s attacks on clean energy.
Read more: National climate plans now promise half the emission cuts expected by UN
Read more: The more Europe relies on the US for energy, the more it’s vulnerable to pressure by Trump
COP30 Deforestation and Fossil Fuel Transition Roadmaps
Tuesday 3 November – Brazil
Brazil is set to unveil two global roadmaps: one for transitioning away from fossil fuels, the other for ending deforestation.
The COP30 presidency promised them in the dying hours of the Belém summit last November as a last-minute fix to break a political impasse. Since then, it has been consulting with countries, experts and campaigners around the world to gather ideas and sketch out the elements to include in these blueprints.
Don’t expect the roadmaps to offer any new global targets or give direct instructions on what countries must do, either to cut fossil fuel production and consumption or better protect forests. Rather, Brazil has said the documents will identify barriers and priority actions, highlight existing mechanisms and present a range of options that can be adapted to different national contexts.
It remains unclear what will happen with the reports once they are delivered on Tuesday. At the Bonn talks last June, a group of European and small island nations called for the roadmaps to be brought into the official negotiations, warning that a one-off report won’t cut it. But such efforts would undoubtedly face stiff opposition from fossil fuel-producing nations that objected to drafting the energy transition roadmap within the formal UN process last year.
Read more: European, island states seek clear future for global roadmap to cut fossil fuels
Read more: COP30 roadmap to end deforestation will invite countries to draft domestic plans
Read more: What we need to see in the roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels
UNEP Adaptation Gap Report
Wednesday 4 November – Nairobi, Kenya
The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) will publish its annual assessment of how well the world is planning, implementing and – crucially – financing measures to cope with worsening climate impacts.
Past editions have made for grim reading. Last year’s report warned of a widening gap between what developing countries need for adaptation and what they can access. It estimated they will need $310–365 billion a year by 2035, which is 12 to 14 times current international flows. The report also found that a goal of doubling international public adaptation finance by 2025 was likely to have been missed.
This year’s edition will be closely watched with adaptation expected to be a big-ticket item at COP31. Governments are likely to discuss the specifics of a commitment to triple adaptation finance for developing nations by 2035, agreed at COP30 last year – particularly what the baseline for that pledge is. Negotiators will be debating how to track progress against the 59 indicators of the Global Goal on Adaptation.
Read more: Editor’s Desk: Nepal’s disaster has laid bare the world’s adaptation accountability gap
Read more: Bonn climate talks end in “gridlock” on adaptation and emissions-cutting
Read more: New data shows rich nations likely missed 2025 goal to double adaptation finance
COP31 Climate Conference
Monday 9 November – Friday 20 November – Antalya, Türkiye
The climate community’s attention turns this month to Antalya for the annual UN climate summit. From the outset, COP31 will have an unprecedented, and potentially explosive, set-up: Türkiye is COP president overseeing the non-negotiated Action Agenda, while Australia runs the negotiations.
Billed, once again, as an “implementation COP”, the talks come amid a global energy crisis largely sparked by the actions of the US government, which is not expected to show up on the Turkish Riviera. It is also the first COP in the era of climate overshoot, coming just weeks after the UN officially confirmed the 1.5C warming limit will be breached and set out a narrow pathway to bring temperatures back down to the most ambitious Paris goal.
Unlike most recent COPs, the formal negotiations lack a clear headline item. Countries are due to establish and define the scope of the Just Transition Mechanism agreed in Belém last year, including its rules, governance and possible funding arrangements. On adaptation, vulnerable countries want a clearer path to delivering last year’s pledge to triple finance by 2035 and to putting the new progress indicators to work on the ground.
Governments are also likely to clash over next steps on the transition away from fossil fuels, and especially over whether the mitigation work programme – the forum dedicated to emission-cutting measures – has any future beyond this year.
Notable events to look out for in Antalya:
Opening session (9 November): The summit kicks off with the customary first-morning plenary. After the usual pageantry from the host nation, negotiating blocs and individual countries will deliver statements setting out their stall for the next two weeks. Watch out for a potential fight over the summit’s agenda – perhaps on issues relating to finance and trade following submissions requesting additional items – also a COP tradition.
Electrification (10 November): On Energy Day, the Turkish presidency is expected to formally launch its flagship electrification pledge, revealing which countries have signed up. Signatories will voluntarily commit to raising electricity’s share of global final energy consumption to 35% by 2035, though the current text does not require that power to come from clean sources. There is also a question mark over whether and how this can be included in the political cover decision the COP co-hosts have said they will aim to produce.
Leaders Summit (11-12 November): Heads of state and governments will jet into town for the traditional high-level segment in the middle of the first week, where world leaders typically talk up their climate record, air their grievances and call for more action.
Relatively few powerful leaders are on the list this time. Brazil’s Lula is set for another star turn this year, fresh from his surprise election win in October. The UK’s Andy Burnham, Spain’s Pedro Sanchez and China’s vice-premier Ding Xuexiang are expected, alongside Türkiye’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Australia’s Anthony Albanese. In addition, African and small island nations will feature prominently.
Our COP31 Briefing newsletter will offer a more in-depth preview of the talks later this week.
Read more: Early speakers’ list suggests few powerful leaders will attend COP31
Read more: COP31 electrification pledge leaves out clean power commitment
Read more: From Belém to Antalya – gains, gaps and challenges for a new Just Transition Mechanism
International Maritime Organization (IMO) Shipping Talks
Monday 23 November – Friday 4 December – London, United Kingdom
One year on from explosive talks in which Trump’s officials teamed up with Saudi Arabia to delay a deal to make the shipping industry greener, governments will gather on the banks of the Thames for another attempt to reach agreement.
The Net Zero Framework, provisionally agreed in October 2025, includes a series of emissions reduction targets for the owners of large ships along with penalties for not meeting them, rewards for doing so and measures to make the maritime transition fair.
The framework is likely to be either tweaked or radically rewritten so that it’s more acceptable to the US and Saudis. Brazil and Japan have submitted compromise proposals. Analysts find those will move shipping further away from being able to meet its climate goals.
There will be closed-door talks between November 23-27 and a second week of talks open to accredited media from November 30 to December 4. Agreement on a proposal, perhaps decided through a vote, is expected after long and technical negotiations. The shipping industry’s 3% share of the world’s emissions is at stake.
Read more: London talks raise hopes for green shipping deal
The post What’s on the climate calendar for November 2026? appeared first on Climate Home News.