Google DeepMind, in a nutshell, is a cutting-edge artificial intelligence research laboratory, a subsidiary of Google.
Google DeepMind, the pioneering AI research lab behind AlphaGo and other groundbreaking projects, might seem like an impenetrable realm accessible only to seasoned engineers and researchers.
They focus on advancing the field of general-purpose AI (AGI), also known as artificial general intelligence, which aims to create machines with cognitive abilities similar to humans.
What makes Google DeepMind special?
Here’s a breakdown of what makes DeepMind special:
Pioneering AI research: DeepMind has made significant breakthroughs in AI, particularly in areas like:
- Deep learning: Their algorithms have mastered complex games like Go and StarCraft, surpassed human performance in protein folding prediction (AlphaFold), and generated human-quality creative text formats (AlphaStar).
- Reinforcement learning: DeepMind uses this technique to train AI agents to solve problems and make decisions through trial and error.
- Neuroscience-inspired AI: They research how the brain works to develop biologically plausible AI models.
Real-world applications: DeepMind’s research isn’t just confined to the lab. It’s finding practical applications in:
- Healthcare: Tools like Streams use AI to predict and prevent acute kidney injury in patients.
- Energy efficiency: DeepMind helps Google data centers save energy by optimizing cooling systems.
- Scientific discovery: AlphaFold is revolutionizing protein research, potentially leading to new drug discoveries.
Ethical considerations: DeepMind also recognizes the ethical concerns surrounding AI and actively participates in discussions and research on safe and responsible AI development.
Google DeepMind Engagement opportunities:
Even if you’re not an AI expert, you can still engage with DeepMind:
- Explore their website and social media to learn about their research.
- Use Google products powered by DeepMind, like AlphaFold or personalized recommendations.
- Participate in citizen science projects like Perceiver IO.
Remember, Google DeepMind is at the forefront of AI research, pushing the boundaries of what’s possible. By understanding their work and engaging with it, you can stay informed about the future of artificial intelligence and its potential impact on our world.
But fear not, there are ways to engage with DeepMind’s work and even leverage its advancements in your own endeavors, regardless of your technical background.
Exploring the DeepMind Landscape:
- Dive into the Research: DeepMind’s website is a treasure trove of information. Visit deepmind.com to browse through their blog, research papers, and project pages. You’ll find fascinating articles on topics like protein folding, climate change prediction, and AI safety, often presented in digestible formats.
- Follow DeepMind on Social Media: Stay updated on their latest breakthroughs and events by following their Twitter (@DeepMindAI) and YouTube channel. They regularly share informative videos, podcasts, and talks by DeepMind researchers, offering insights into their work and its potential applications.
- Engage with the Community: DeepMind hosts forums and discussion groups where enthusiasts and experts exchange ideas and debate the implications of their research. Consider joining the DeepMind Forum or Reddit community to participate in stimulating conversations.
Beyond Exploration: Taking Action with Google DeepMind:
- Utilize DeepMind Technologies: Explore Google products and services powered by DeepMind’s AI, such as the AlphaFold protein structure prediction tool or the personalized recommendations in Google Play. These applications showcase the practical impact of DeepMind’s research.
- Contribute to Citizen Science Projects: DeepMind engages the public in contributing to research through projects like Perceiver IO, where anyone can help train an AI model to understand the world through videos. Participating offers a firsthand experience in AI development and contributes to scientific progress.
- Get Involved in Educational Initiatives: DeepMind offers educational resources like the DeepMind Quest AI coding game and workshops to introduce students of all ages to the principles of AI. Encourage kids and teens in your life to explore these resources and ignite their passion for AI.
Remember: DeepMind’s work is still under development, and its potential implications are vast and complex. Engage with a critical and informed perspective, participate in discussions around ethical considerations, and use your newfound knowledge to advocate for responsible AI development.
While DeepMind doesn’t have a direct user base, its impact extends to a vast number of people through its integration into various Google products and services.
Google DeepMind: Star in the Deep Learning Universe
Google DeepMind has carved a prominent niche in the ever-evolving landscape of deep learning. Their contributions extend far beyond the realm of cutting-edge research, leaving a lasting impact on various fields and inspiring future advancements. Here’s a peek into DeepMind’s significant role in deep learning:
Pioneering breakthroughs:
- Mastering complex games: DeepMind’s algorithms, like AlphaGo and AlphaStar, conquered the intricate worlds of Go and StarCraft, pushing the boundaries of AI’s strategic and decision-making capabilities.
- Revolutionizing protein research: AlphaFold, a deep learning tool for protein structure prediction, has transformed the field of biology, accelerating drug discovery and shedding light on protein functions.
- Generating human-quality creativity: AlphaStar’s ability to generate creative strategies in real-time gaming showcases the potential of deep learning for artistic expression and human-like problem-solving.
Advancing deep learning techniques:
- Refining reinforcement learning: DeepMind’s research has significantly contributed to the field of reinforcement learning, enabling AI agents to learn through trial and error, leading to impressive feats in game playing and robot control.
- Developing scalable architectures: They’ve designed efficient and adaptable neural network architectures like Perceiver IO, capable of handling diverse data modalities and scaling effectively to large and complex tasks.
- Integrating neuroscience insights: DeepMind’s research often draws inspiration from how the human brain works, resulting in more efficient and biologically plausible AI models.
Impact beyond research:
- Real-world applications: DeepMind’s AI powers tools like Streams for predicting and preventing acute kidney injury, demonstrating the potential for improved healthcare using deep learning.
- Optimizing energy efficiency: Their AI aids Google data centers in reducing energy consumption, highlighting the environmental benefits of deep learning-based solutions.
- Democratizing AI: Projects like Perceiver IO strive to make deep learning tools more accessible and adaptable, paving the way for broader adoption and innovation.
Challenges and considerations:
While DeepMind’s achievements are noteworthy, it’s crucial to acknowledge potential challenges:
- Ethical concerns: Issues like bias, transparency, and job displacement require careful consideration and responsible development of deep learning applications.
- Accessibility and equity: Ensuring equitable access to the benefits of deep learning and mitigating potential inequalities is crucial.
- Long-term implications: The potential far-reaching consequences of general-purpose AI necessitate ongoing research and ethical discussions.
Looking ahead:
DeepMind’s pioneering work in deep learning continues to inspire and shape the future of AI. Their dedication to tackling complex challenges, advancing the field responsibly, and exploring real-world applications positions them as a leading force in shaping a more intelligent and beneficial future for all.
The story of DeepMind in deep learning is far from over. As research progresses and technological advancements unfold, one thing is certain: DeepMind will remain a prominent force, illuminating the path towards a future where AI enhances and enriches our lives in innovative and transformative ways.
Google DeepMind Audience
Here’s a breakdown of how DeepMind’s technologies reach a wide audience:
- AlphaFold: This groundbreaking protein structure prediction tool has been used by over 100,000 researchers worldwide, accelerating drug discovery and advancing our understanding of biology.
- Google Play: DeepMind’s AI powers personalized recommendations in the Google Play Store, reaching over 2.5 billion active Android devices.
- Google Assistant: DeepMind’s research has contributed to advancements in natural language processing, making the Google Assistant more responsive and helpful for millions of users.
- Google Data Centers: DeepMind’s AI has helped to reduce energy consumption in Google’s data centers by up to 40%, indirectly benefiting billions of Google users by reducing the environmental impact of their online activities.
Beyond these direct applications, DeepMind’s research has also influenced other AI projects and advancements across various industries, further extending its reach.
The benefits of Google DeepMind
The benefits of Google DeepMind are far-reaching and multifaceted, impacting both individuals and society as a whole. Here’s a glimpse into some key areas:
Scientific & Technological Advancement:
- Accelerated scientific breakthroughs: DeepMind’s AI tools like AlphaFold are revolutionizing protein research, leading to faster drug discovery and development.
- Enhanced problem-solving capabilities: By tackling complex challenges in areas like materials science and climate change prediction, DeepMind is paving the way for innovative solutions.
- Automation and optimization: From optimizing energy efficiency in data centers to streamlining logistics networks, DeepMind’s AI is driving automation and increasing efficiency across various sectors.
Societal & Individual Impact:
- Healthcare improvements: AI tools like Streams help predict and prevent acute kidney injury, potentially saving lives. DeepMind’s research also contributes to personalized medicine and early disease detection.
- Enhanced quality of life: AI assistants powered by DeepMind can assist with daily tasks, provide reminders, and even offer companionship, particularly for vulnerable populations.
- Educational opportunities: DeepMind’s educational initiatives, like DeepMind Quest, spark interest in AI among young people and provide valuable learning experiences.
Economic Growth & Productivity:
- Increased productivity and automation: DeepMind’s AI can automate repetitive tasks, freeing up human workers for more strategic roles and boosting overall productivity.
- New job opportunities: The development and implementation of AI will create new jobs in areas like AI development, maintenance, and ethical oversight.
- Economic expansion: By driving innovation and efficiency across various sectors, DeepMind can contribute to economic growth and development.
However, it’s important to acknowledge that DeepMind’s advancements also come with potential challenges and risks:
- Ethical considerations: Issues like bias, transparency, and job displacement need careful consideration and responsible development of AI.
- Accessibility and equity: Ensuring equitable access to the benefits of AI and mitigating potential inequalities is crucial.
- Long-term implications: The potential far-reaching consequences of general-purpose AI necessitate ongoing research and ethical discussions.
Google DeepMind’s Perceiver IO is a groundbreaking project that pushes the boundaries of what’s possible with neural networks. It’s a powerful and flexible architecture capable of handling a wide array of tasks with diverse inputs and outputs.
Here’s a breakdown of Perceiver IO and its key features:
What it does:
- Handles diverse data: Perceiver IO can process different kinds of data like text, images, audio, video, and point clouds, making it truly versatile.
- Scalability and efficiency: Unlike traditional Transformer models, Perceiver IO doesn’t suffer from quadratic complexity as input size increases. This means it can handle large and complex inputs efficiently.
- Structured inputs and outputs: Perceiver IO excels at tasks with structured inputs and outputs, such as predicting optical flow between images or generating melodies from musical notes.
- General-purpose architecture: It’s not limited to specific applications and can be adapted to various tasks, making it a valuable tool for researchers and developers.
How it works:
- Cross-attention and latent space: Perceiver IO uses cross-attention to project high-dimensional input data onto a lower-dimensional latent space. This compressed representation is then processed by a Transformer module, making it more efficient.
- Flexible output: The latent space is then decoded into the desired output format, enabling Perceiver IO to generate outputs of various shapes and sizes.
Impact and Applications:
- Real-world potential: Perceiver IO has shown promising results in tasks like image inpainting, protein structure prediction, and robotics control.
- Democratizing AI: By being adaptable and efficient, Perceiver IO can pave the way for more accessible and versatile AI tools.
- Unlocking new possibilities: Its wide range of applications makes it a valuable tool for various fields, from scientific research to creative endeavors.
20 Fascinating Google DeepMind Projects
1. AlphaGo & AlphaStar: These AI programs conquered the challenging worlds of Go and StarCraft, respectively, showcasing DeepMind’s prowess in game playing and strategic decision-making.
2. AlphaFold: This groundbreaking tool predicts the 3D structure of proteins with remarkable accuracy, accelerating drug discovery and unlocking new insights into protein function
3. Gato: This multi-modal AI agent demonstrates impressive versatility, excelling in different tasks like playing Atari games, generating text, and controlling robotic limbs.
4. AlphaZero: This self-play learning algorithm mastered chess, Go, and Shogi from scratch, highlighting DeepMind’s advancements in reinforcement learning and game playing.
5. MuZero: Building upon AlphaZero, MuZero can learn to play games and solve other tasks without any prior knowledge or human intervention, showcasing its general-purpose learning capabilities.
6. Streams: This AI-powered tool helps predict and prevent acute kidney injury in patients, demonstrating DeepMind’s potential to revolutionize healthcare with intelligent algorithms.
7. Perceiver IO: This flexible neural network architecture handles diverse data modalities and scales efficiently, making it a powerful tool for various tasks like image inpainting and protein structure prediction.
8. Deep Green: This project aims to develop AI for sustainable energy management, optimizing energy consumption in data centers and contributing to environmental goals.
9. Robotics & Control: DeepMind’s research in robotics control equips robots with intelligent decision-making and movement capabilities, paving the way for more flexible and autonomous robots.
10. Language Understanding: DeepMind’s advances in natural language processing enable AI to understand and generate human-like language, with applications in chatbots, machine translation, and text summarization
11. Multimodal Learning: By integrating information from different modalities like vision, sound, and touch, DeepMind’s AI gains a richer understanding of the world, leading to more robust and adaptable algorithms.
12. Unsupervised Learning: DeepMind explores unsupervised learning techniques where AI learns from unlabeled data, unlocking the potential to analyze massive datasets and discover hidden patterns.
13. Fairness & Ethics: Recognizing the ethical considerations of AI development, DeepMind actively researches and promotes responsible AI practices to mitigate bias and ensure fair and beneficial applications.
14. Explainable AI: DeepMind strives to develop AI models that are interpretable and understandable, allowing humans to understand the reasoning behind their decisions and build trust in AI systems.
15. Safety & Security: Ensuring the safety and security of AI systems is paramount, and DeepMind actively researches methods to identify and mitigate potential risks associated with advanced AI.
16. Democratizing AI: DeepMind initiatives like DeepMind Quest aim to make AI more accessible and engaging for everyone, fostering interest and understanding of this transformative technology.
17. OpenAI Collaboration: DeepMind’s recent merger with Google AI’s Brain division signifies a commitment to collaboration and accelerated progress in the field of AI, potentially leading to breakthrough advancements.
18. Future of Work: As AI continues to evolve, DeepMind actively explores the potential impact on the workforce and works to ensure a future where humans and AI co-exist and collaborate effectively.
19. Long-Term AI Safety: DeepMind recognizes the importance of considering the long-term implications of advanced AI and actively participates in discussions and research on safe and responsible.
Beyond the List:
This list of 19 projects scratches the surface of DeepMind’s diverse and impactful work. They constantly embark on new ventures, tackling complex challenges and unveiling the immense potential of AI across various fields. Whether it’s revolutionizing scientific research, optimizing energy consumption, or shaping the future of work, DeepMind’s contributions hold the promise of a better and more intelligent future for all.
Conclusion The Deepmind: How to Engage with Google’s Cutting-Edge AI
Google DeepMind offers immense potential for progress and positive impact across various aspects of our lives.
DeepMind doesn’t disclose specific user numbers for its research projects or internal tools. However, the widespread adoption of its technologies within Google products and its influence on the broader AI landscape demonstrate its significant impact on a global scale.
By stepping into the world of DeepMind, you can gain valuable insights into cutting-edge AI research, contribute to scientific progress, and even leverage its advancements in your own life.
https://www.exaputra.com/2023/12/the-deepmind-how-to-engage-with-googles.html
Renewable Energy
Know Your “Isms”
I present the chart at left, though I do so without any belief that it will change anyone’s thinking.
As dozens of the world’s great thinkers have said over the centuries, Don’t expect that reason will have any effect on people who beliefs were formed without reason in the first place.
Renewable Energy
U.S. Sanctions on Iran
Is what we see at left actually true?
Possibly, but no one with the IQ of a turnip believes a word that comes out of these people’s mouths.
Renewable Energy
WindQuest Advisors on Repowering and Rising O&M Costs
Weather Guard Lightning Tech

WindQuest Advisors on Repowering and Rising O&M Costs
Dan Fesenmeyer, Managing Partner at WindQuest Advisors, joins to discuss the repowering rush and the FAA permitting stall, rising O&M costs on larger turbines, tariff pass-throughs, and AI data center demand.
Sign up now for Uptime Tech News, our weekly newsletter on all things wind technology. This episode is sponsored by Weather Guard Lightning Tech. Learn more about Weather Guard’s StrikeTape Wind Turbine LPS retrofit. Follow the show on YouTube, Linkedin and visit Weather Guard on the web. And subscribe to Rosemary’s “Engineering with Rosie” YouTube channel here. Have a question we can answer on the show? Email us!
Welcome to Uptime Spotlight, shining light on wind energy’s brightest innovators. This is the progress powering tomorrow
Allen Hall: Dan, welcome back to the podcast.
Dan Fesenmeyer: It’s great to be here. Great to see you again.
Allen Hall: There is so much happening in your particular area. Your name pops up quite a bit within Weather Guard because, uh, we’re dealing with a lot of operators and- A number of times we’ll ask them, “Have you read your turbine supply agreement?”
“No.” “Have you read your full service agreement?” “No.” “Well, maybe you should do that.” And then we say, “Have you talked to Dan? You should call Dan, ’cause he can help you understand what you have signed.” Mm-hmm. “Oh, that’s probably a good idea.” So now that you’re here, WindQuest Advisors, of course, obviously is your company.
Mm-hmm. And you’re talking to a number of operators. The, the big hurdle at the minute, the nearest short-term hurdle, is repowering. There’s just a lot of [00:01:00] repowering efforts going on- Mm-hmm … trying to get turbines in, start a project. There’s a July 4th deadline and an end of the year deadline. There’s a couple deadlines after that.
What are you seeing right now from operators i- in terms of repowering? What’s the effort happening?
Dan Fesenmeyer: Well, there was a ton of effort to start physical work. That window’s obviously closing-
Allen Hall: Yes …
Dan Fesenmeyer: very quickly, but it’s still open. Uh, and then once you’re past that window, my understanding is if you get your repower completed by the end of ’27, you didn’t really need to have started physical work.
But I think most folks, start physical work is kind of the insurance piece of it-
Allen Hall: Sure …
Dan Fesenmeyer: if things take longer. Uh, another thing that’s popped up is obviously FAA and other permitting.
Allen Hall: On the permitting side, from the federal’s, uh, standpoint, is that stopped? Or, or are projects able to continue putting turbines in the ground, or what’s the status?
Dan Fesenmeyer: My- From what I’ve seen, I think on the opening session here at [00:02:00] ACP, it was said, they said that there’s, like, 130 projects that are-
Allen Hall: At least …
Dan Fesenmeyer: caught. Yes. And I’m, I’m involved with some of them, and I have a fairly small shop, and there’s just no FAA variances or permits or- They’re not issuing- … mitigation studies.
Everything seems to have stopped.
Allen Hall: So they’re not even reviewing the documentation that’s been submitted by the operators at all?
Dan Fesenmeyer: That’s what it seems, yes. Yeah.
Allen Hall: Is that legal? Uh, uh, usually those federal requirements have a timeline which they’re able to review those permits and get them approved or disapproved them.
You’re s- Right … I think what I’m hearing is, what you’re saying is they’re not even looking at them.
Dan Fesenmeyer: That’s correct. That’s what I’ve heard and seen.
Allen Hall: Okay.
Dan Fesenmeyer: Yeah. Yeah.
Allen Hall: So what is an operator to do then? How does this, how do they meet some of these deadlines if they can’t get the permit?
Dan Fesenmeyer: Well, I mean, it stalled a lot of projects ’cause of the associated risk with it.
Although I’ve seen some, uh, you know, some repower folks think, “Well, you know, I’m just repair- repowering like for like, or I’m not changing much.” [00:03:00] But if your, if your rotor’s changing or pad location’s changing, you need to update those permits.
Allen Hall: So the, the groups and the operators that are repowering the existing turbines are putting basically the same turbine in the same hole.
Dan Fesenmeyer: Well,
Allen Hall: I- Would that be okay?
Dan Fesenmeyer: I would say originally- The initial push on repower was kind of your larger rotors- Sure … new drivetrain, et cetera. Yes. The market seemed to shift more towards, “Hey, let’s do smaller upgrades, component exchanges.”
Allen Hall: Okay.
Dan Fesenmeyer: Getting more towards the minimal investment, so to speak.
Allen Hall: The 80% investment portion.
Dan Fesenmeyer: Yes.
Allen Hall: Right.
Dan Fesenmeyer: Yeah. And less about, you know, a big new machine head, for example.
Allen Hall: Well, if that gets you through and gets you the, the, uh, tax credit started back up again, which is the whole point- Right … there would be a reason to do that.
Dan Fesenmeyer: That’s right.
Allen Hall: Is there a marketplace then for those components if you’re gonna repower a GE 1.5 machine, which there’s a lot of them- Mm-hmm
in the United States? Are you seeing a big emphasis to go get a new gearbox, [00:04:00] to upgrade the blades- Yeah, and, and- … kind of
Dan Fesenmeyer: thing? Or just do maybe a drivetrain and s- Okay … and leave the rotor or, or-
Allen Hall: So do a gearbox and-
Dan Fesenmeyer: Yeah. Gear or just full drivetrain- Or generator … or yeah, s- things like that. And, um- Wow
people are comfortable doing it, and then it’s e- it’s easier, obviously.
Allen Hall: Sure. It’s faster.
Dan Fesenmeyer: And faster, and you don’t necessarily have to touch permits or, yeah.
Allen Hall: And is part of that repowering, I know one of the questions- Mm-hmm … that’s been bandied about quite a bit is, do I have to buy a, a new generator or a new gearbox, or is a refurbished gearbox enough to check the box in terms of upgrading or putting 80% of the value back into the turbine to qualify for those tax credits?
Dan Fesenmeyer: I’m not a tax expert, but I’ve seen people do both.
Allen Hall: Okay. Well, that’ll tell you.
Dan Fesenmeyer: Yeah. Yeah.
Allen Hall: They’ve obviously talked to- Right … tax advisors about that.
Dan Fesenmeyer: It’s, it’s their level of risk and whether they have outside tax money or whether- … they’re kind of balance sheet or taking it themselves. It’s, it’s- Yeah … more of a risk profile that [00:05:00] everybody’s different on.
Allen Hall: Okay. So that has changed the landscape quite a bit. So now it’s, once this window of opportunity passes by, we’re into brave new world. Mm-hmm. And operating turbines now not really 10 years, operating till end of life, which could be 20, 25 years. Have operators started thinking about that and starting to address some of the, the, especially the contracts around that?
Are they starting to rethink contracts? Are they starting to approach full service agreements differently? Is, is the marketplace changing in the US?
Dan Fesenmeyer: Yeah, I think so. I mean, it, it, depending what you have and what you’re doing, whether you have an existing agreement or you need a new one, and whether it’s a renewal or if you’re doing, let’s say, a drivetrain or new machine head, then there’s usually a service contract that’s going to come with it- Sure
’cause it’s essentially a new machine. Largely a new machine. Largely,
Allen Hall: yeah.
Dan Fesenmeyer: But in the case of a gearbox, right, you’re probably out of your longterm O&M agreement anyway, and, uh, whether you’re… And you probably [00:06:00] have, you don’t have the unplanned coverage anymore. Right. So it’s really, you’re on, you’re kind of on your own risk.
Allen Hall: Okay, so that’s the repower scenario. Mm-hmm. What’s happening new turbine-wise? It seems like the, a lot of the operators are choosing six megawatt, seven megawatt, eight megawatt machines tends to be the, the, the band of opportunity for a lot of operators. What are they working on right now in terms of, uh, TSAs, full service agreements?
What are you seeing out on the landscape US-wise?
Dan Fesenmeyer: Well, I think, um, the TSAs haven’t changed much.
Allen Hall: Okay.
Dan Fesenmeyer: But the- The, the scope and the risk has changed a bit, and the, the OEMs are, you know, holding their cards closer, and it’s hard to get to certain terms that– harder than it used to be.
Allen Hall: So let’s, let’s talk about that for a minute because, uh, there’s been some recent reports speaking to the O&M costs for larger machines.
And so the, the goal was if I went from a [00:07:00] two-megawatt machine to a six-megawatt machine, my O&M cost may be 3x because of the size of the turbine, but ideally they drop. That, uh, the same amount of effort into a larger, m- newer machine, uh, so, uh, my spend wouldn’t go up that much. In, in some places on the planet that I’ve seen feedback about that is that the O&M costs are not 3x, they’re 5x.
So the, the cost to operate the turbine, the six and eight megawatt machines, is higher than it would be proportionally to a two-megawatt machine. I think operators are just trying to start to figure that out. Are the OEMs already knowledgeable of that fact and are s- trying- I, in, in- … to phrase the conversation
I
Dan Fesenmeyer: mean, in the pricing that you get from the OEMs for the full scope agreements, that’s largely in there already.
Allen Hall: Yes.
Dan Fesenmeyer: And I always tell people look at it on a dollar per kWh or dollar per megawatt hour- Ah … basis versus a dollar per turbine, and you- Sure … you’ll see a different number.
Allen Hall: Different calculation done.
Dan Fesenmeyer: Right. But [00:08:00] these, these larger machines, they need larger cranes. They need tall– Yeah, they have taller towers, so a different crane setup, and these components become very, very large. So- Everything gets harder … everything gets d- more difficult. In a basic sense, it’s still oil and gearbox and, you know, tho- tho- Right
that kind of basic service. But when you get into major components and more major maintenance items, then it’s bigger, it can be harder.
Allen Hall: So what does a operator think about that now that they have a little bit of experience? Obviously SunZia, which is a huge project, three and a half gigawatts, uh, a l- several hun- like around 900 turbines, all of them bigger turbines.
It’s a r- for, uh, really the first real taste in America of larger turbines. What are the operators thinking about that, and how are they thinking about what sizes to go with in the future? Or, or, or do they not really have a choice? Like, GE offers six, Vestas offers six, Siemens will offer a six or a seven, [00:09:00] so those are your choices.
They’re– You’re not able to get a two megawatt machine anymore.
Dan Fesenmeyer: I mean, I think, uh, it really comes down to your, your site. Okay. And the larger machines are generally better when you have land constraints or, uh, y- your, your wind resource varies very differently. Think of a ridgeline, and you only have a certain number of pads.
But generally, it’s kind of a pad constraint to push you to the larger, and then your smaller, “smaller,” four and four to four and a half- … megawatt machines, those are still kind of the workhorses of, of the US, in my opinion. Their NCS better, they’re e- they’re lower cost, but you need more pads. So it’s always that trade-off of pads versus space, spacing, uh, and in the end, you just want to get the most AEP out of that site.
Allen Hall: In terms of marketplace, are you seeing prices generally rise dollars per megawatt on [00:10:00] new turbines? ‘Cause the, at least the market indication is that, uh, some of the OEMs have- Real strength in the marketplace today. This is an, an OEM-strong market. They can set- Mm-hmm … prices now. There’s fewer players. China has been eliminated from a lot of lo- locales.
Mm. So they don’t have the competition. That allows them to raise prices. Are you starting to see that flow down in some of the contracts, that, hey, the prices are going up? But, but i- inflation has been a big part of that, too. Well,
Dan Fesenmeyer: yeah, yeah. I mean, there’s… And tariffs, right? The, uh, that, that’s the most interesting one right now, and you have to kind of peel apart what’s my pre-tariff price versus my post, and then what’s the exposure if these tariffs change?
And-
Allen Hall: Is that in the contracts now? Are they able to write contracts that tie them to what the tariffs could be, so your final price really depends on what the tariffs are today or tomorrow?
Dan Fesenmeyer: It’s generally… Well, things have changed and, and things are always fluid, but, [00:11:00] but most recently it’s, “Well, here’s what the tariffs are today,” and when we either bring in the component or when the OEM’s actually paying that tariff, it’s kind of a pass-through
Allen Hall: in essence.
So they’re just handing you the, the bill for the tariff- Yeah … in a sense.
Dan Fesenmeyer: I mean, that- that’s it. And then you can maybe negotiate and do some things around that to share risk a little bit. Mm-hmm. But the basic premise is, you know, there’s transparency on here’s the countries and the tariff rates. If these change, that’s on the buyer.
Allen Hall: So the OEMs are trying to address that in, in some form w- by moving production into the United States. Vestas has a large blade facility in Colorado. They’ve been expanding that over the last several months. They’ve been hiring quite a bit. Uh, GE with LM up in North Dakota and TPI, and all the discussions around TPI at the minute is to really bolster their supply chain.
Uh, they’re trying to get away from the tariffs as much as they can. Are, [00:12:00] are you… You think you’re still gonna see more of that where a Siemens, a GE, a Vestas are gonna be investing more in the United States to avoid that tariff, or is it just impossible?
Dan Fesenmeyer: I, I mean, I think you… What they’ve done, I… It seems to me, I’m not obviously an expert on that, but it- they’ve moved things where they can And to capture- Mm
you know, where you already have capacity. But starting, yeah, building a new plant somewhere, I’m not sure how wise that is in the environment that we’re in.
Allen Hall: Yeah, you saw a lot of plants that were proposed two, three years ago that have, were never built. It does seem like existing plants that were on site that were closed got reopened.
Kansas, Iowa- Mm-hmm … some of those plants got- Mm-hmm … started over again, which is easier to do, which makes a lot of sense. So they’re going after the, the easiest things first still. We’re in that phase of we’re not gonna put a lot of money into the United States however. We’re gonna utilize what we have and maybe grow what we have.
Dan Fesenmeyer: Right. Or, or similarly, you can move from, if you have more of a… All these supply [00:13:00] chains are global at this point.
Allen Hall: Sure.
Dan Fesenmeyer: But if you happen to have a factory in a country with a lower tariff and versus one that’s higher, maybe you move that. You’re not bringing it over to the US, but you’re moving from, let’s say, India to the UK.
Allen Hall: Sure. So, so- Okay, so there, there’s a lot of sh- card shuffling going on- Yeah … to avoid tariffs.
Dan Fesenmeyer: Yeah, and unfortunately then the tariffs change and- … perhaps you have to change back. And, and the other one, uh, that’s out there, obviously the Supreme Court had their ruling on tariffs, so folks are waiting for a Section 232, which is
Allen Hall: still- Untouchable, in a sense?
Uh-
Dan Fesenmeyer: Well, it- people are just waiting for what, what will Section 232 be. And it’s been looming for months now.
Allen Hall: Over a year.
Dan Fesenmeyer: Yes. So, and, you know, we’re waiting, I guess.
Allen Hall: Is the feeling about that in the industry, uh… I’ll, well, I’ll use a couple of good examples, I think, which, uh, offshore wind being a real stress point United States, and a lot of [00:14:00] the administration’s work to limit offshore development got stopped in the courts.
So anything that was sort of building turbines, putting, had ships out, putting- Mm … uh, monopiles in, they never got stopped. They were delayed a couple of weeks, but they were never really stopped, and it feels like from the outside looking in, is that the courts are not gonna allow some of these, uh, movements by the administration to take effect.
Is the industry in the United States seeing the tariffs and some of the more extreme things that are happening as temporary or, or are they being a little more cautious, saying, “Yes, offshore wind has won a, a number of lawsuits”? But we may not. And th- with the Department of War and 232 and all those events that are happening, what is the outcome there, and w- how are operators thinking about that?
Dan Fesenmeyer: Well, I think we’re in a, in a market where if you have a project that can get built within this window-
Allen Hall: Yeah …
Dan Fesenmeyer: and [00:15:00] you’ve safe har- Like, those projects- And you’re, you’re just in … are desperately moving forward.
Allen Hall: Okay.
Dan Fesenmeyer: Then- ‘
Allen Hall: Cause the trend has been, if you can get it in the ground, they’re gonna let it be developed.
They haven’t been able- Right … to stop anything halfway through. Well,
Dan Fesenmeyer: other, like, the FA is a good example of it-
Allen Hall: Sure …
Dan Fesenmeyer: being stopped. But- Yeah … if you have a project that’s being built, you’re moving forward, and then projects that are outside the window, it’s more of a greenfield development view of, of life.
And seems like some folks are selling p- assets, some folks are buying- A
Allen Hall: lot of that …
Dan Fesenmeyer: development assets.
Allen Hall: Let’s go down that pathway for a minute because I did think- Yeah … that’s a very interesting piece to what’s happening in the United States at the minute. There’s a lot of transactions, big dollar transactions happening for wind- Mm-hmm
on buying, selling portfolios, not just farms. It used to be farms. Right. We’ll sell a farm. Yeah. It was. We’ll swap farms, that kind of thing. Now it’s like, uh, would you like our whole portfolio, wind, solar, battery?
Dan Fesenmeyer: Mm-hmm.
Allen Hall: Is that playing into a lot of the decisions that are [00:16:00]happening on the ground right now, that a, a developer or an operator that has assets is saying, this is a prime time to sell.
There’s a l- I have my tax credits already locked in. We’re golden here- Mm-hmm … for several years. The value is never gonna get higher. I need to get out. I- is that the marketplace today, is-
Dan Fesenmeyer: I think for some. I mean- Yeah … everybody’s got different, uh, motivations, whether they wanna get into wind, get out of wind, greenfield versus repower.
Uh, it, it’s, it’s really their view of the world and their risk profile moving forward, and whether this is a short-term play, long-term. Do we wanna get out of wind? Some people are essentially doing that. Uh, it’s, it’s across the board.
Allen Hall: How’s AI data centers playing into this? What are you hearing?
Dan Fesenmeyer: Oh, I mean, that’s what everybody talks about, AI and data centers, and the demand for power is there.
And- The [00:17:00] issue that, that a lot of us see is wind and solar and battery can all help with that.
Allen Hall: Sure.
Dan Fesenmeyer: And if you want a gas turbine, that’s great, but my former colleagues at GE are gonna tell you it’s 2030- Yes … or later to get one, so what do you do between now and then? And you’re seeing prices go up, which makes these wind farms look pretty good.
Power profile’s nice. Yes. Uh, but you still have hurdles to get, like the FAA, US Fish and Wildlife, all these other hurdles to, you know, that are slowing down wind and solar for that matter too.
Allen Hall: Solar’s been slowed down for sure.
Dan Fesenmeyer: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
Allen Hall: Does that change, though, with the demand for power in AI data centers?
And it does seem to be a priority in the United States to, to win this AI race. Mm-hmm. Does that loosen some of the reins on renewables to let them go, like just look the other way for a while, while they put a new solar field or wind farm in?
Dan Fesenmeyer: It stands to reason that will happen. Haven’t really seen [00:18:00] it, unfortunately.
But I wo- But I think it will, right? I mean, it, it, it, it almost has to at some point.
Allen Hall: There’s a lot of pressure on Washington DC to let data centers start being developed and, and go.
Dan Fesenmeyer: Mm-hmm.
Allen Hall: But a- as you pointed out, gas turbines are hard to get, and they can’t scale up at the rate at which the demand is.
Right. So your alternative is something really simple, quick and efficient, which would be wind and solar and a little bit of battery. Yeah. I- is that change in the thinking of operators and how they’re thinking about their assets, one, and two, what they’re thinking about in the future? Or are they trying to hook up with an- a- I mean-
a Google, a Facebook, a- Yeah, I
Dan Fesenmeyer: mean, the offtake’s- … SpaceX … there, and that’s generally, you know, it used to be utility PPAs. Then it turned- Right. … into hedge things and C&I. Yeah. And now it’s more, you have this, the data center offtake.
Allen Hall: Is the data center offtake, thinking about it from a, a financial standpoint, which they’re probably not being tied to the grid.
At [00:19:00] least a lot of these, or at least the talk is right now, is the not being connected to the grid to be sort of standalone, feeding a data center, and maybe a piece of fiber optic coming out of the data center. But that’s essentially it. Maybe some backup power on the grid just in case things go horribly wrong, but standalone power for data centers does make sense.
It would, it would seem to lessen the requirements on wind and solar in terms of interacting with the federal government or the, the power company in a sense. Does that make wind and solar a little more viable because it’s not connected to the grid?
Dan Fesenmeyer: Well, I mean, it will be connected to the grid because when the wind stops blowing, the utility will usually, you know, or, and the sun stops sh- shining- Sure
uh, the utility will kind of provide that power. That w- Or the gas turbines that they have would- Gas turbine will kick
Allen Hall: in, right.
Dan Fesenmeyer: Yes. Yeah. But, but generally speaking, you’re never truly off the grid, but it does speed things up with interconnection and, and, you know, your T&D [00:20:00] line is much shorter.
Allen Hall: Right.
Dan Fesenmeyer: Or not, you know- Much
much, much shorter. Yeah. Depending where the, the resource is and versus the plant or the, the data center.
Allen Hall: So what are the things that we don’t know in the industry that you’re in touch with that we should know? ‘Cause there, there must be a lot happening behind the scenes that we don’t hear out in public or in the common spaces of some of these conferences that are happening behind the scenes.
What is, what is the status right now? What do you think the status is of wind?
Dan Fesenmeyer: I mean, it’s, I, I, I’m a big sailor, and sometimes the wind’s blowing hard- … you’re going fast, and sometimes you sail into what we call a hole- Yeah … and it’s just dead quiet. We’re not quite there yet, but, um, it, it’s kind of we’re going through a bit of a lull right now.
And I think, I think what people don’t realize is the multiple roadblocks that the industry’s facing. In the past, we’ve had PTCs lapse, and the question is when and if it [00:21:00] will be renewed. Yeah. Now you have other roadblocks, you know, whether it’s, again, FAA, Fish and Wildlife, permitting, different localities.
Some… And this goes back to the data center. A lot of local, you know, communities don’t want a data center.
Allen Hall: Right. There’s a lot of-
Dan Fesenmeyer: Right? And they’re like, “Well, wait a minute. My power prices as a citizen are gonna go up- True … because of it.”
Allen Hall: Yeah, it’s true. We’ve already seen it.
Dan Fesenmeyer: Yeah. Yeah. So, so there’s a lot of just new barriers that have come up.
Allen Hall: Okay. That-
Dan Fesenmeyer: But wind developers are an extremely resilient bunch, and-
Allen Hall: This isn’t the first rodeo-
Dan Fesenmeyer: Right …
Allen Hall: where they’ve had these issues pop up- Yeah … and PTCs stop and other world forces affect the industry. What’s the outlook over the next three to five years, do you think? Different administration in a couple years, maybe different outlook, more demand on…
for power, AI data centers. Is- it just gonna [00:22:00] overwhelm any resistance to wind and solar and battery?
Dan Fesenmeyer: I mean, it, it, that’s kind of a crystal ball, but I think if these data centers start getting built out like people think they will, there’ll be demand for power. And, now we’re talking basic economics, Supply, demand. People need power, then power plants will get built and, whether it’s gas, wind, solar-
Allen Hall: All of the above
Dan Fesenmeyer: All of the above, right? And, and I think it will ultimately follow that. I think the, administration will let you know if there’s not enough power or power gets too expensive, something has to break and fill that gap
Allen Hall: because- So let the economics play out a little bit.
Dan Fesenmeyer: Yeah, right? Yeah. ‘Cause we’re, we’re voters, right? And- Sure … and, um, people vote often with their pocketbooks.
Allen Hall: And wind and solar are cheap sources of energy, and they’re gonna come to the top of the list almost every time.
Dan Fesenmeyer: Yeah.
Allen Hall: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I, I agree with you. Uh, it’s good to see you again. We saw you a few months [00:23:00] ago at WOMA in Australia, and that was wonderful.
And I tell a lot of the operators we talk to, “You better be talking to Dan and WindQuest Advisors because you really need to understand what your contracts say and the contract you’re signing, and you need to have a better sense of what’s happening, a little more broader speak in the United States and elsewhere- Mm-hmm
and they should be talking to you.” So how do they call or how do they contact WindQuest Advisors to get started?
Dan Fesenmeyer: Well, www.windquestadvisors.com or reach out to Allen and his team. You’re on LinkedIn. I’m on LinkedIn as well- … both personally and my firm. And, um, ask a friend ’cause I have a, we have- … big networks that everybody…
You know, it’s, it’s a small community here. It
Allen Hall: is.
Dan Fesenmeyer: Right?
Allen Hall: It is.
Dan Fesenmeyer: And, and people bounce around different firms and, but people stay connected, so, um, that’s a great way to find each other as well.
Allen Hall: Yeah. Great to see you, Dan. Likewise. Thank you. Thanks for being on the podcast. And yeah, we’ll hopefully see you in Australia in a couple months.
Dan Fesenmeyer: Looking forward to
[00:24:00] it.
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