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Tesla (TSLA) Stock Slips After Q3 Results as Carbon Credit Revenue Plunges 44%

Tesla today released its third-quarter 2025 results. The company posted $28.1 billion in revenue, up 12 % compared with a year ago. Net income narrowed sharply to $1.4 billion, down roughly 37 % from the same quarter in 2024. The gross margin stood at about 18 %, down from 19.8 % a year earlier.

Vehicle deliveries reached a record 497,099 units, driven largely by strong demand ahead of the U.S. federal EV tax-credit expiration. Energy storage deployments grew, but Tesla reported a revenue drop.

More notably, sales from regulatory credits, also known as carbon credits, fell to $417 million, down 44% from last year.

Tesla highlighted operational strength in production and clean energy expansion. It also recognized outside pressures. These included falling carbon credit sales, higher costs, and a more competitive EV market. All of these factors affected profit margins.

CEO Elon Musk said Tesla is “staying focused on cost control and scaling clean energy.” He added that the company is improving factory automation and AI systems while expanding into new markets.

Carbon Credits Lose Power

Tesla’s carbon credit sales fell again in Q3. The company earned $417 million from selling credits, down 44% compared with $739 million a year earlier.

Tesla carbon credit quarterly revenue

For years, these credits have provided Tesla with extra income. The company makes money by selling zero-emission vehicles. Then, it sells the credits to automakers that don’t meet emission standards.

Major buyers include Stellantis (formerly Fiat Chrysler) and General Motors. They use Tesla’s credits to reduce higher fleet emissions. In Europe, Toyota, Ford, Mazda, and Subaru have joined pooling arrangements linked to Tesla and other EV makers. These credit deals remain a key income source for Tesla, even as rival automakers expand their own EV lineups.

Between 2019 and 2024, Tesla made more than $11.8 billion in credit sales. But as other automakers launch more electric models, demand for Tesla’s credits is declining. Analysts say this trend will continue as the EV market matures and countries tighten credit systems.

However, expected revenues will gradually decline. This will happen as global manufacturers meet stricter carbon standards and depend less on external credits.

Tesla’s CFO noted that while carbon credit income still helps overall results, it is now a smaller part of the company’s total revenue. The company’s goal is to rely on vehicle and energy product sales instead of external credits in the long run.

ESG Edge: Tesla’s Ongoing Climate Impact

Tesla continues to lead in cutting transportation-related emissions through its EVs and renewable energy systems. In 2025, the company estimated that its global fleet helped avoid more than 20 million tons of CO₂ compared with gas-powered vehicles.

Its Gigafactories use renewable power where possible. For example:

  • The Nevada Gigafactory sources most of its electricity from solar panels and nearby renewables.
  • The Texas Gigafactory plans to reach 100% renewable electricity by 2026.
  • The Berlin-Brandenburg Gigafactory uses energy from wind and solar farms in Germany.

In 2024, Tesla said its operations emitted around 1.6 million tons of CO₂-equivalent, mostly from manufacturing. However, it aims to reach net-zero operations by 2030, partly through on-site renewables and energy efficiency upgrades.

The company’s battery recycling program also expanded this year. Tesla said it processed over 10,000 tons of battery materials in 2025, recovering more than 90% of key metals such as nickel, lithium, and cobalt. This helps reduce both mining demand and production costs.

Market Reaction and Stock Outlook

Tesla’s stock traded lower after the Q3 results. Investors focused on shrinking profit margins and weaker credit income. Shares fell about 4% in after-hours trading following the announcement.

Tesla TSLA stock price

However, analysts noted that Tesla’s strong vehicle deliveries and growing energy business remain long-term positives. The company still holds about $29 billion in cash, giving it flexibility for new factory investments and product launches.

Tesla is also developing new products that could shape its next growth phase:

  • Cybertruck deliveries are ramping up, with full-scale production expected in 2026.
  • The next-generation “Redwood” compact EV is under development, targeting a lower-price market.
  • The Dojo AI supercomputer continues to expand to improve autonomous-driving systems.

Analysts project that Tesla’s annual deliveries could reach 1.9 million units in 2025, up from 1.8 million in 2024. But the company must maintain cost control and increase battery supply to stay competitive.

Tesla remains the top global EV brand, but its market share is shrinking. Companies like BYD, Hyundai, Volkswagen, and GM are expanding fast. BYD alone sold over 3 million EVs in 2024, close to Tesla’s total deliveries.

BYD vs Tesla EV sales

Costs are another challenge. Prices for lithium and nickel, key battery metals, have been volatile. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence reported that lithium carbonate prices rose nearly 25% in early 2025 after a sharp fall in 2024.

Tesla is working to reduce these risks through in-house battery production and supply deals. It is also developing its “Optimus” robot and expanding its Full Self-Driving (FSD) software, which could bring new recurring revenue in the future.

Policy Shifts and the Carbon Economy

Tesla’s position in carbon markets is also tied to global climate policy trends. The federal EV tax credits ended in 2025 after new legislation. The change removed the $7,500 credit for many new EV buyers and the $4,000 used-EV credit.

This shift reduces a key buyer incentive in the U.S. and may affect EV demand and pricing going forward. Meanwhile, in Europe, new carbon border taxes could make manufacturing outside the region more costly.

Globally, voluntary carbon markets are growing by about 20% each year. However, regulators are pushing for stricter verification standards.

Tesla’s carbon credit decline fits a broader pattern—many automakers are now earning their own credits instead of buying them. The shift signals progress toward wider EV adoption but also limits a once-steady source of profit for Tesla.

Beyond Cars: Tesla’s Clean Energy Expansion

Beyond cars, Tesla’s energy division remains a major growth area. The company is scaling up battery-storage products like Powerwall for homes and Megapack for utilities.

In 2025, global installations of Tesla’s energy storage exceeded 40 GWh, up 16% year over year. These systems help stabilize power grids and integrate renewable energy.

Tesla energy storage deployment Q3 2025
Source: Tesla

Tesla also said its solar installations reached 280 MW in the quarter, a 9% increase. Although still a small part of total revenue, solar and storage help diversify the business as the company moves closer to its clean-energy mission.

Looking forward, Tesla plans to:

  • Increase battery recycling capacity by 50% by 2026.
  • Expand Megapack production in California and China.
  • Develop lower-cost energy products for homes and small businesses.

These steps aim to make Tesla not just an automaker but a full-scale clean energy company.

Bottom Line: Growth Meets Reality

Tesla’s Q3 2025 results show solid growth but shrinking profits. Vehicle deliveries set a new record, and the energy business expanded. Yet, weaker margins and falling carbon credit sales highlight growing challenges for Tesla.

From an ESG perspective, Tesla remains a major player in global decarbonization. Its EVs and clean energy systems continue to reduce emissions worldwide. But maintaining that leadership will depend on cost discipline, stable policies, and innovation in both batteries and AI systems.

As the company enters the final quarter of 2025, investors will watch closely for signs of margin recovery and progress on new product lines. The next few quarters will show whether Tesla can balance fast growth with profitability, while staying true to its sustainability mission.

FURTHER READINGS: 

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Designing an Insetting Program: A Step-by-Step Playbook for Procurement

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Insetting program design starts with your supplier map. The carbon claim comes much later.

Consider a coffee procurement team that funds a farm intervention before checking its sourcing data. The supplier aggregates coffee lots from several regions. The buyer lacks farm-level traceability. Another purchaser expects to report the same outcome. A more attractive project brochure solves none of these problems.

If the distinction between a value-chain intervention and a purchased credit is still open, read CCC’s Insetting vs Offsetting guide before you set the brief.

Insetting program design begins with the purchasing relationship and works outward. You need to decide 1) where an intervention belongs, 2) what business problem it addresses, 3) who pays for it, 4) how results will be measured, and 5) what the evidence will let you say about them. This five-step playbook turns that sequence into a procurement plan.

Step 1: Insetting program design starts with supplier mapping

Start with the commodities that matter most to your Scope 3 inventory and sourcing continuity. Ask finance for spend by supplier, sustainability for the emissions baseline, and category managers for origin and volume records. Then identify which suppliers can trace material to a jurisdiction, sourcing region, producer group, or individual land-management unit.

The level of traceability affects what you can account for. Under the GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard, the spatial boundary for purchased land-based products depends on the traceability associated with each volume. Farm-specific factors or removals require physical traceability through an acceptable chain-of-custody model. A contract with a tier-one trader, by itself, does not establish a link to the farms behind its deliveries.[1]

Build a first-pass table with five columns: commodity and annual volume; supplier and origin; current traceability level; land-use and production risks; and the business owner who can change the purchasing terms. Mark missing data plainly. A blank cell is cheaper to fix before a program starts than after a claim is drafted.

If your company sets an SBTi Forest, Land and Agriculture target (FLAG), keep its land-related target boundary separate from energy and industry emissions. The current FLAG guidance also requires relevant companies to assess primary deforestation-linked commodities in their value chains.[2]

Step 2: Choose a commodity and jurisdiction for a pilot

Select one supply corridor where the sourcing connection can be established and procurement has a reason to stay. A useful pilot has repeat purchases, suppliers willing to share records, an intervention matched to a diagnosed problem, and a defined plan to measure the result. Carbon potential alone is a poor selection rule if the supplier cannot deliver the crop your business needs.

Compare candidate regions on land-use risk, supplier concentration, local rights and tenure, the availability of baseline data, and exposure to drought, erosion, or forest conversion. Check the relevant legal requirements separately. A nature project does not satisfy a due-diligence obligation merely because it has a carbon method attached.

Consider a coffee buyer sourcing from two districts. In the first, producer-group records identify the farms, while recent dry seasons have increased rejected green coffee lots. In the second, deliveries pass through several intermediaries and farm origins are unknown. Pilot shade management in the first district, with local agronomic advice and quality checks built into the plan. The buyer can trace purchases there and test the intervention against a defined sourcing problem.

Use a short decision memo to record why the selected corridor beats the alternatives, what remains uncertain, and what would stop the pilot. That memo is the first control against a project drifting toward whatever happens to photograph well.

Step 3: Design the supplier engagement and commercial model

The intervention needs an owner on each side of the contract. Decide who supplies planting material or training, who maintains the practice, who bears the cost if a harvest disappoints, and how long the buyer expects to purchase from participating suppliers. Where smallholders participate, budget cash flow and technical support for practices that offer a later return.

Put these terms in a supplier agreement or pilot addendum. It should cover eligible farms and volumes, consent to data collection, access for monitoring, any land or carbon rights that matter, benefit sharing, and what happens if the purchasing relationship ends. Ask local counsel and producer representatives to review the arrangement. The Accountability Framework is a useful reference for supply-chain work involving forests, ecosystems, and human rights.[3]

Avoid assigning an automatic carbon benefit to the buyer. The contract should say which party has the right to report each outcome, how overlapping claims will be checked, and how any issued credits will be handled. A reduction reported in a buyer’s inventory cannot simply be sold for someone else’s offset claim without an accounting review. SBTi FLAG guidance excludes purchased credits used as offsets from near-term FLAG target achievement.[2]

Set commercial measures beside environmental ones: delivered volume, rejection rate, supplier retention, and procurement cost. They tell you whether the program works as a supply-chain investment, even if carbon accounting takes longer to resolve.

Step 4: Build monitoring, reporting, and verification before rollout

Agree on the baseline and data flow before paying for a full rollout. Identify the land units or sourcing regions in scope, the practices that change, the records suppliers already keep, and the additional measurements the program requires. Decide which data can come from field visits, transaction records, or remote sensing, and who checks each source.

For carbon, separate three questions. Did the practice happen? Did emissions or removals change under an applicable method? Can the buyer attribute a defensible share to its purchased goods without double counting? The GHG Protocol’s 2026 guidance includes dedicated chapters on spatial boundaries, data and methods, evaluating actions, credited outcomes, and assurance.[1] These are distinct jobs. A photograph of a planted tree answers only part of the first.

CCC’s MRV and Additionality article explains the separate evidence questions a project reviewer will ask.

Create an evidence file for every reporting period: dated supplier and farm records, purchase volumes, methods and emission factors, uncertainty, quality checks, and changes from the baseline. Specify who can challenge the data and how corrections are recorded. If a project also seeks credit certification, keep project accounting and corporate inventory accounting separate. The GHG Protocol says its land standard focuses on entity-level inventories and does not set the rules for credit certification.[4]

Start with the minimum viable measurement design that can survive review. Add complexity when the pilot tells you which data actually changes a decision.

Step 5: Decide what can be reported and claimed

Insetting program design needs reporting rules before the marketing copy. Procurement, sustainability, finance, and legal should agree on four distinct outputs: operational performance; observed land or nature outcomes; inventory effects, if the accounting criteria are met; and any separately issued credits. One dashboard can display them, but they should not share a single unqualified headline.

SBTi FLAG guidance allows certain land-based removals within a company’s operations or supply chain to contribute to FLAG pathways, subject to criteria including permanence, traceability, data quality, and allocation. It does not allow purchased offsets to meet near-term FLAG targets.[2] Eligibility therefore depends on evidence and the applicable target rules, not on calling an activity “insetting.”

Draft a claims register. For each proposed sentence, record the period, boundary, data owner, calculation method, reviewer, and whether the result is measured, estimated, or still a goal. If the evidence supports only “we funded a pilot with 200 farms,” say that. Do not turn a funding fact into a verified emissions reduction.

What good looks like by year three

Treat year three as a review point, not a promised payback date. A mature pilot should have mapped participating supply volumes, a stable supplier agreement, a repeatable data collection process, and a comparison of commercial and environmental results against the baseline. It should also have a documented answer for outcomes that cannot be included in the buyer’s inventory.

Scale only where the pilot improves a sourcing decision and the evidence can follow the product. If neither condition holds, redesign the intervention or change the corridor. A disciplined program can conclude that a site is unsuitable. That is useful procurement intelligence.

Discuss your insetting program with CCC

Carbon Credit Capital designs nature-based supply chain investments around sourcing needs and measurable sustainability outcomes. Schedule a consultation with our carbon and sustainability experts to map your tier-one supplier network, FLAG exposure, and first pilot decision.

Sources

[1] GHG Protocol, Land Sector and Removals Standard, version 1.1, and companion Guidance, June 2026: https://ghgprotocol.org/land-sector-and-removals-standard ; https://ghgprotocol.org/land-sector-and-removals-guidance

[2] Science Based Targets initiative, Forest, Land and Agriculture Science-Based Target-Setting Guidance, version 1.2, March 2026, especially pp. 16–17, 37, and 41: https://sciencebasedtargets.org/resources/files/SBTiFLAGGuidance.pdf

[3] Accountability Framework initiative, Accountability Framework and guidance for companies: https://accountability-framework.org/

[4] GHG Protocol, Frequently Asked Questions: Land Sector and Removals Standard, questions 10 and 18: https://ghgprotocol.org/blog/frequently-asked-questions-land-sector-and-removals-lsr-standard

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The Strategic Case for Nature-Based Carbon Investments

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Nature-based carbon investments deserve consideration when they address a specific business dependency and produce outcomes you can measure. Imagine Moonbucks, a global coffee roaster planning next season’s espresso blend. It is considering natural Grade 4 coffee from Jimma, in southwestern Oromia, Ethiopia. Its sourcing decisions affect the roasting schedule and the cash tied up in coffee purchases. Moonbucks needs to understand which measures could protect that supply, what they would cost and how it would judge the results.

1. Define the sourcing problem before choosing a project

Moonbucks needs a dependable component for its espresso blend. Its procurement team wants continuity of volume and an agreed cup profile. Replacing a shipment at short notice could require new sample approval and changes to the blend, and given the schedules for cultivation, processing, and freight delivery, is practically impossible. Moonbucks needs to get this right, and its initial concern is inconsistent deliveries. It commissions an assessment of the supplying farms and post-harvest chain. The questions cover land condition, harvest availability and whether drying or storage problems are affecting saleable lots.

This distinction changes the investment brief. A tree-planting proposal cannot be assumed to fix drying problems. Better storage cannot restore eroded land. The team must establish which problem exists before selecting the response.

CCC’s guide to finding nature-based solutions in your supply chain explains where to look. Here, the next task is to turn a broad concern into a testable proposal.

2. Develop nature-based carbon investments around the actual supply chain

The assessment would trace Moonbucks’ purchases back through the exporter and supplying producer groups. Which farms supply the contracted lots? Who controls land-management decisions? How long does the buyer expect to maintain the purchasing relationship?

Furthermore, Jimma natural Grade 4 cannot be treated as interchangeable with every Ethiopian coffee. Moonbucks would need to test any substitute against its own blend and quality requirements.

Suppose Moonbucks’ assessment identifies an opportunity to maintain shade trees and restore vegetation along exposed streambanks. The IPCC describes agroforestry as a way to store carbon in vegetation and soil, with potential benefits for erosion control and water quality.1 Moonbucks would need local advice on species, growing conditions and maintenance before deciding how these measures fit its sourcing plan.

The proposal now has a defined sourcing connection and a candidate intervention. The next steps are to test its effect on production, assess carbon eligibility and build the financial case.

3. Compare the proposal with other ways to protect supply

WBCSD’s Nature-based Solutions Blueprint recommends comparing nature-based options with other responses across their benefits and costs.2 For Moonbucks, that means evaluating the landscape proposal alongside drying improvements, storage controls and alternative sourcing arrangements.

The product’s natural-process designation matters. Moonbucks should examine the drying and dry-milling chain alongside land conditions. Its team would check storage practices, contamination risks and incoming-lot quality to see whether problems arise before or after the coffee leaves the farms.

The revised proposal might combine land stewardship with separate post-harvest controls. Each component needs its own purpose and budget. A sustainability label should not obscure which activity is expected to solve which problem.

The project develops as the evidence improves. Its scope should follow the diagnosis rather than preserve the first idea unchanged.

4. Establish what the carbon outcome could count toward

Moonbucks’ sustainability team now tests the proposed carbon case separately from the sourcing case. Is the objective a measurable change in Moonbucks’ value-chain emissions, verified credits for separate voluntary use, or distinct outcomes under carefully defined arrangements?

Scope 3 covers value-chain emissions. A purchasing relationship alone does not prove that a farm intervention can be included in Moonbucks’ inventory. The team needs an applicable accounting method, defensible boundaries and evidence supporting attribution.

SBTi’s FLAG Guidance (forest, land and agriculture), version 1.2, says purchased credits used as offsets cannot meet near-term FLAG or energy and industry targets. Eligible land-based removals are subject to accounting requirements.3 Moonbucks needs to test its proposal against those rules before including an outcome in its targets.

For Moonbucks’ Jimma proposal, maintaining existing trees and establishing new vegetation could involve different carbon questions. Specialists must examine the baseline and additionality, meaning what changes because the project proceeds. They must also assess measurement and the risk that stored carbon is lost. CCC’s MRV and additionality article introduces those tests.

Until that work is complete, Moonbucks should not budget an assumed Scope 3 reduction or credit-sale receipt. Direct emissions reductions remain the priority.

5. Build a financial case that survives weaker assumptions

Moonbucks’ finance team would now build a multi-year budget. UNEP’s State of Finance for Nature 2023 compares current finance with the investment needed to meet climate, biodiversity and land-restoration goals.4 The company would cost its proposed activities, farmer participation and ongoing monitoring. Verification, where required, is a separate expense. Maintenance and responsibility for replacing failed plantings must remain visible after the initial establishment budget ends.

Operational benefits need equally careful treatment. If fewer rejected lots reduce emergency purchasing, count that saving once. Do not add “supply resilience” as another financial benefit when it represents the same avoided cost.

Moonbucks should compare a base case with slower benefits, higher implementation costs and no carbon revenue. It should also distinguish production outcomes from quality and shipment outcomes. A single good harvest would not prove that the landscape intervention caused better delivery performance.

A project can remain worth funding even when its carbon case needs more work. That decision must rest on the operational evidence and the company’s objectives, without unsupported environmental claims.

6. Fund a pilot with a clear expansion decision

Moonbucks’ first approval would fund a bounded pilot, rather than commit the entire sourcing program. Before spending, Moonbucks would agree on participating farms, responsibilities and the evidence needed at review.

Its scorecard could track farmer participation, implementation costs and plant survival, alongside accepted coffee volumes and lot-quality results. Carbon measurements would follow the selected method. Farm-level traceability must connect the intervention to the actual sourcing relationship.

Suppose Moonbucks’ review later finds that storage changes explain most quality improvements, while the land measures need longer observation. Those findings would shape the next decision: expand the proven component, adjust the landscape work or pause further spending. They would not justify crediting all improvements to tree planting.

This gives nature-based carbon investments a practical place in a multi-year strategy. Funding increases as the evidence supports it, and the project can change direction before a larger commitment.

Discuss a sourcing opportunity with CCC

Carbon Credit Capital’s nature-based supply-chain investment service uses its Dual-Value Model to examine supply-chain economics alongside potential sustainability outcomes.

Schedule a consultation to discuss your sourcing exposure and the questions to resolve before allocating capital.

Sources

  1. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change, Chapter 7, Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses, section 7.4.3.3 (Agroforestry).
  2. World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD), Nature-based Solutions Blueprint, 5 June 2024.
  3. Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi), Forest, Land and Agriculture Science-Based Target-Setting Guidance, version 1.2, March 2026, section 3.1.4, pp. 37–38.
  4. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), State of Finance for Nature 2023, 2023.
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Carbon Footprint

How to buy plastic credits, and what to check before you do

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A plastic credit funds the collection of plastic waste in places where no formal system exists to collect it. Each credit represents a measured, independently audited quantity of plastic taken out of the environment or returned to use, tracked on a public registry.

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