The bulk of steelmaking around the world still relies on coal-based blast furnaces.
As a result, the steel and iron industry is responsible for 7% of greenhouse gas emissions and 11% of carbon dioxide emissions globally, according to the consultancy firm Global Efficiency Intelligence.
This is more than the total emissions from all the world’s cars and vans.
With steel critical to the building out of decarbonised energy infrastructure, production is expected to continue to rise over the coming years, meaning the potential for decarbonisation is “enormous”, according to not-for-profit data organisation Global Energy Monitor (GEM).
GEM’s annual “Pedal to the Metal” report reveals that 93% of new steelmaking capacity announced thus far in 2024 promises to use lower emission electric arc furnaces (EAFs).
It also shows that 49% of the world’s steelmaking capacity under development now uses EAFs, up from just 43% in 2023 and 33% in 2022.
Of this, nearly all of the capacity announced since the beginning of 2024 operates using EAFs, the non-governmental organisation’s Global Steel Plant Tracker (GSPT) shows.
The tracker covers 2,207m tonnes per year (mtpa) of operating steelmaking capacity and an additional 774mtpa of steelmaking capacity under development globally, across 1,163 individual plants in 89 different countries, analysis of which is captured in its annual report.
However, while the report suggests a positive progression towards lower emission technologies in the sector, the increase in the announced projects is not yet leading to a construction of EAF overtaking coal-based production methods.
Coal-based blast furnace-basic oxygen furnaces (BF-BOFs) – where blast furnaces are used to produce iron from ore and oxygen converters then turn this, with some additional elements, into steel – continue to dominate the projects under construction, meaning “pressure must be maintained all the way through to project completion if real progress is to be seen”, the report finds.
Growth of EAFs
Incoming steelmaking capacity is more heavily EAF-based than ever before, according to GEM’s new report.
There is currently 774mtpa of steelmaking capacity under development, of which 223mtpa is in the advanced development stage.
Based on data from April 2024, the GSPT shows that nearly half of the capacity under development (337mtpa) is EAFs.
Just 36% of steelmaking capacity announced in 2020 with a known production route used EAFs, while in 2023 that number had increased to 92% according to GEM. This grows to 93% of capacity when looking at steelmaking capacity under development announced in 2024.
This “indicates a significant shift toward electric arc furnace steelmaking in the years to come”, the report notes.
Meanwhile, of the 212mtpa of steelmaking capacity slated for retirement, 88% if BOF-based.
However, a net increase in BOF-based capacity is expected over the coming years. If all planned developments and retirements take effect, an additional 171mptpa of BOFs is expected to be added to the global fleet, along with 310mtpa of EAF and 80mtpa of unknown technologies.
Despite this growth in BOFs, the surge of EAF means the steel sector is getting increasingly close to meeting the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) suggested 2030 target.
In its net-zero by 2050 roadmap, the IEA suggests that the share of steel produced by EAF should grow from 24% in 2020, to 37% by 2030 and then 52% by 2050.
Considering all planned capacity and retirements, GEM now estimates that the global steel fleet is expected to reach 36% EAF by 2030, noting: “This is still not sufficient to meet the IEA [net-zero] climate target, but with heightened momentum the goal is increasingly attainable.”
Continuing to construction
While EAF-steelmaking is being announced at “record rate”, GEM finds that less than 14% of this potential capacity has moved into construction.
Of those that have moved into construction, around 46% are still BOF-based. As such, “while we may be within reach of net-zero targets based on proposed electric arc furnace capacity, actually achieving these goals requires follow-through”, the report notes.
Caitlin Swalec, program director for heavy industry at GEM, said in a statement:
“The progress is promising for a green steel transition. Never before has this much lower-emissions steelmaking been in the pipeline. At the same time, the buildout of coal-based capacity is concerning. What the industry needs now is to make these clean development plans a reality, while backing away from coal-based developments.”
As well as the buildout of new coal-based capacity being out of alignment with a net-zero future, it poses a threat of carbon lock-in and stranded assets, GEM notes.
Blast furnaces are becoming riskier investments given the limited options to mitigate emissions from both the furnaces themselves and the upstream emissions from the metallurgical coal mining, it adds.
Estimating an investment of $1-1.5bn per mtpa capacity at an integrated BF-BOF site, GEM found that the future stranded-asset risk could be as high as $554bn in 2023, falling to $400bn in 2024 due to the continued fall in BOF capacity under development.
Astrid Grigsby-Schulte, project manager for steel at GEM tells Carbon Brief:
“As we grow closer to key decarbonisation milestones, coal-based developments get further out of alignment with the direction the industry is moving and present a greater risk of stranded assets to steelmakers. Coal-based, emissions-intensive blast furnaces represent significant investments that often require decades to recoup. This makes them extremely risky for developers, particularly in countries with stated net zero commitments.”
The limited options for mitigating the climate impact of BOF-steelmaking was also highlighted within a recent report from the thinktank Sandbag.
While carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) is often touted as a “catch all” solution, its effectiveness varies widely across applications, Sandbag’s “Steel & CCS/U” report finds.
For steel production, BF-BOFs with carbon capture are unlikely to be cost-competitive with EAFs, the report finds. Although given the slow pace of technological and market development, Sandbag anticipates capturing carbon will play a limited role in the steel industry.
China transitions to EAFs
India has now replaced China as the top steel developer globally, with a pipeline of 258mtpa of capacity, of which 177mtpa is BOFs, according to GEM.
China has a pipeline of 150mtpa meaning, collectively, China and India are responsible for 53% of all developments globally.
Asia operates 68% of all steelmaking capacity (1,508mtpa), the majority of which is in China (1,075mtpa), India (123mtpa) and Japan (109mtpa).
When looking specifically at emissions-intensive BOF production, Asia’s share of total operating capacity increases to 80% (1,181mtpa), of which 918mtpa is in China.
Currently, China has 157mtpa of operating EAFs (22% of the global capacity), followed by the US, Turkey, Iran and then India.
According to a new report from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), China did not issue any new permits for coal-based steelmaking in the first half of 2023. This is the first time this has happened since the nation’s “dual carbon goals” were announced in September 2020.
During the first six months of 2024, Chinese provincial governments permitted 7.1mtpa of steelmaking capacity, all of which were EAFs marking a “turning point” for the country’s steel industry, CREA notes.
Xinyi Shen, researcher at CREA and the report’s lead author, tells Carbon Brief: :
“China’s EAF steelmaking has been developing rather slowly in the past few decades, mainly due to the constraint of scrap supply. However, as China’s steel demand reaches its peak and more scrap becomes available, a major opportunity arises to reduce emissions in the next 10 years. The government has accelerated plans to expand the national ETS to include the steel sector by the second half of 2024. By implementing carbon pricing on carbon-intensive products, EAF steelmaking would become more economically competitive and continue the growth.”
Despite India now overtaking China in terms of announced steelmaking capacity, China remains the biggest developer of EAF capacity overall, GEM’s report states. And while India has the most steel in development, 84% has not moved into construction.
As such, there is still an opportunity for India’s plans to change, with the percentage of BOFs to EAFs less set.
Chris Bataille, adjunct research fellow at the Columbia University Center on Global Energy Policy and lead author at the global Net Zero Steel project tells Carbon Brief:
“India’s core demand for steel is set to increase from 125mtpa to ~450mtpa by 2050, especially to meet key building and infrastructure needs. Our modelling suggests EAFs consistently rise from ~35 to 150mtpa by 2050. So the +250mtpa BF-BOFs is just barely feasible, but only over ~25 years and with some exports of BF-BOF steel.
“The difference will be between a world where strong climate policy succeeds and fails. If it fails and coal based BF-BOFs are built, then the +258mtpa looks barely feasible. If it succeeds, India is short on the necessary gas and especially clean electricity to power this amount of steel production. While the country does build a lot of EAFs, it builds up to 250mtpa of clean iron making over time, making the short term shortfall with clean HBI iron imports.”
The post ‘Significant shift’ away from coal as most new steelmaking is now electric appeared first on Carbon Brief.
‘Significant shift’ away from coal as most new steelmaking is now electric
The Endangered Species Committee, known as the God Squad, issued a rare exemption from compliance with the Endangered Species Act for oil and gas activities in the Gulf of Mexico.
Environmental groups are suing the Trump administration over its decision to exempt oil and gas drilling in the Gulf of Mexico from complying with the Endangered Species Act, a move they say threatens both the coastline region and the law designed to protect threatened plants and animals.
Environmental Groups Take Trump Administration’s ‘God Squad’ to Court
The ocean’s fastest and most formidable predators might also be the most physiologically vulnerable to warming waters, researchers warn.
The evolutionary edge that fueled great white shark dominance for millions of years could soon become its greatest downfall.
Climate Change
China Briefing 16 April 2026: Billions for grid | Petrochemical plan | China’s high-seas bid
Welcome to Carbon Brief’s China Briefing.
China Briefing handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight. Subscribe for free here.
Key developments
Surge in grid investment
TRILLION-YUAN ERA: China’s two largest power grid operators invested a total of 167.5bn yuan ($24.5bn) in the first quarter of 2026, reported state broadcaster CCTV. State Grid said that during this period it spent more than 10bn yuan on connecting “new energy” projects to the grid, up 50% from last year, reported Shanghai-based news outlet the Paper. The two state-owned enterprises (SOEs) plan to invest 1tn yuan ($146bn) annually over the 15th five-year plan period (2026-2030), said finance news outlet Yicai.
POWER CURBED: However, in what Bloomberg called a “clear signal that the grid is struggling to absorb all the extra power from the rapid growth in renewables”, solar and wind utilisation rates – the percentage of total power generated by a source that is used by the grid – fell again at the start of the year. They stood at 90.8% and 91.5%, respectively, in January and February 2026, according to a post by an SOE-linked research institute republished by energy news outlet International Energy Net. The rates are now “approaching [minimum] limits that the government had relaxed only two years ago”, added Bloomberg.
SIX PROVINCES SUPERVISED: A recent meeting of the National Energy Administration (NEA) concluded that China’s renewable installations had seen “steady growth” in 2026, adding that the body must make “sustained efforts” to “expand” investment in renewable power, reported International Energy Net. Separately, International Energy Net also said that the NEA will increase “supervision” of the power sectors in six provinces – Hebei, Jilin, Xinjiang, Fujian, Hunan and Guangdong. The outlet said this would entail scrutinising how they implement “energy conservation and carbon reduction” tasks, with a “focus” on coal plants, how they construct large clean-energy bases and their consumption of new energy, as well as their power infrastructure and markets.
Conflict spurred cooperation with China
CHINA ‘WINNING’: In Vienna, Chinese climate envoy Liu Zhenmin told state news agency Xinhua that the Middle East conflict has created an urgent need for countries to rethink energy security strategies and accelerate the energy transition. Xinhua also cited Liu as warning against over-reliance on a single source of energy imports. Meanwhile, state broadcaster CCTV published a segment arguing that a “greener” system will “provide a strong guarantee” for energy security, although it did not mention the conflict. Several outlets have continued to highlight how low-carbon energy has helped China weather the conflict and boosted sales of Chinese technologies, including the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Associated Press, Indian Express, Washington Post and Bloomberg. Semafor said China was “winning the global energy war”.
MANY MEETINGS: United Arab Emirates crown prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Chinese president Xi Jinping discussed how to “prevent further impacts” from the conflict on energy security, said Xinhua. Australian prime minister Anthony Albanese said he addressed “regional energy security” with Chinese premier Li Qiang, reported Reuters. A post by China-Russia Information Net on nationalist media outlet Guancha quoted a Chinese diplomat in Russia telling reporters that “current dramatic changes in the international situation” are causing the two countries to discuss “further energy cooperation”. The Philippines is continuing to consider “oil and gas cooperation” with China, despite territorial disputes, Reuters also reported.
‘PROFOUND’ IMPACTS: Energy administration head Wang Hongzhi wrote a chapter in a “study guide” to the 15th five-year plan, published by industry outlet China Power News Net, in which he noted that “geopolitical conflicts are profoundly reshaping the global energy landscape”. He added that “traditional fossil fuels must continue to serve as a safety net while [China] simultaneously accelerates efforts to transition [to clean energy sources]”. Environment minister Huang Runqiu wrote in the CPPCC Daily, the official newspaper for the advisory body Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), that China will “earnestly” carry out “carbon peaking actions” in the next five years. Huang also said that, with “concerted efforts”, China’s 15th five-year plan targets are “achievable”.
Petrochemical plan published
UPGRADE DEADLINE: China issued a plan for either upgrading or phasing out “outdated” petrochemical plants by 2029, reported Reuters. It added that the plan did not confirm explicitly “how many plants may be upgraded or phased out”. The news outlet Economic Daily said that, according to the document, China would focus on upgrading or phasing out outdated capacity “as determined in 2025”, while also developing a “long-term working system” for assessing the industry. According to the full document, published on the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) website, carbon-emission assessments were part of the selection criteria, with policymakers planning on “developing or revising” further standards for carbon emissions under the plan.
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CHEMICAL OVERCAPACITY: The Paper quoted MIIT official Chang Guowu telling reporters that the plan will address the “low standards of design and construction” and “outdated processes” in older plants that lead to “significant” environmental risks. Xinhua said that, of China’s more than 27,000 petrochemical plants, “more than 1,600…outdated facilities” were reported in 2025, 600 of which required upgrading. Chemical news WeChat account WeLink Chemicals noted the policy was released against a backdrop of “overcapacity and declining demand for road transport fuels”, with the government having “stepped up efforts to curb overcapacity” in 2025.
More China news
- TARGET PLEDGED: China will cut the carbon intensity of its international shipping vessels by at least 15% by 2030 compared to 2025 levels, said climate outlet IdeaCarbon. It said China will also “significantly enhance” its influence in emission reduction talks at the International Maritime Organization.
- SANCHEZ VISITED: China and Spain “can contribute to finding solutions” for environmental issues, Spanish leader Pedro Sanchez told Xi Jinping, according to the Associated Press. Ahead of the meeting, Sanchez also argued China should play a more substantial role on climate change, said the Singapore-based Straits Times.
- CHINA COMMITTED: Huang Runqiu reaffirmed China’s support, “as always”, for global climate governance in a meeting with UN advisor Selwin Hart, said the Paper.
- FUNDING HALTED: The EU “quietly” approved a plan to prevent EU funds being provided to “clean technology projects containing Chinese inverters”, said the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post.
- AI UNVEILED: Chinese researchers developed a “first-of-its-kind artificial intelligence model designed to track carbon emissions”, reported Xinhua, adding that it “could shift the balance of power” in global climate negotiations, such as by quantifying the “embedded carbon” of products that developed countries import from China.
- CONTROLS CONSIDERED: China is deliberating “limiting exports” to the US of the equipment needed to make solar panels, according to Reuters.
Spotlight
The debate over China’s bid to host the “high seas” treaty
The final preparatory commission for the Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction (BBNJ) agreement has closed, laying the groundwork for the treaty’s first conference of the parties (COP1).
One key agenda item was China’s presentation of a bid to host the secretariat. In this issue, Carbon Brief examines the debate surrounding the bid.
The BBNJ agreement, also known as the High Seas Treaty, governs the sustainable use and conservation of the “high seas” – marine areas outside national jurisdictions – with a new United Nations (UN) body established to oversee enforcement.
As well as facing significant impacts from climate change, the ocean plays an important role as a carbon sink, absorbing around 29% of man-made emissions.
The treaty “recognis[es]” the need to address oceanic biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation, according to previous Carbon Brief analysis, identifying key impacts from climate change, acidification, pollution and “unsustainable” use.
It aims to encourage conservation and sustainable use of marine biodiversity in the high seas, such as by managing “marine genetic resources”, creating protected areas in the ocean, developing environmental impact assessments and facilitating capacity-building and transfer of marine technology.
China’s bid
China’s bid to host the secretariat focused on its “sustainability efforts” and “commitment to multilateralism”, reported the Earth Negotiations Bulletin.
The country’s bid document drew attention to several of its emission-reduction efforts, including “green shipping corridors” and strengthening carbon sinks through protecting mangroves, seagrass beds and coral reefs.
In a speech, Chinese ambassador to the UN Fu Cong said that the bid “reflects China’s unwavering support” for multilateralism, adding that a successful Chinese bid would lead to the first UN-related body headquartered in the Asia Pacific region. He said:
“That means it will not only be welcomed, but also be prioritised. It will have the full backing from all levels of government in China and its people.”
Li Shuo, director at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s China climate hub, attended the meetings. He said in a note that China’s decision to bid “reportedly came from [President] Xi Jinping”, galvanising a coordinated cross-ministry effort to secure host the secretariat.
Creating debate
China entering the race has caused a stir.
As host, it could inhibit “robust environmental safeguards” by “embedding elements of its domestic governance model” into how the treaty operates, wrote Dr Chime Youdon, research fellow at India’s National Maritime Foundation, on the organisation’s platform.
But such concerns are weakened by the fact that China would “want the treaty to function” if it were host, argued Prof Philippe Le Billon and Zelda Ladefoged, professor and master’s student at the University of British Columbia, in an article for the Conversation.
Nevertheless, they noted “sustained” worries around China’s influence, given the extensive involvement of its companies in distant-water fishing and deep-sea mining, which are not covered in the treaty.
Li told Carbon Brief that, as far as he saw, no-one was “actively pushing back against” the bid on any of the above grounds. Instead, he observed “anxieties” around “accreditation, information security and visa and conference participation issues”.
Daniel Kachelriess, cross-cutting coordinator at the High Seas Alliance, an umbrella group of non-governmental organisations focused on ocean governance, echoed this in comments to Carbon Brief. He said “values like neutrality and impartiality, transparency and accountability” are important for the decision, as well as practical issues such as “reliable” internet access.
The Financial Times reported that Chinese delegates have offered immunity to attendees and flexibility around visas, citing unnamed sources.
But a successful Chinese bid could be a “significant escalation” of China’s involvement in global environmental governance, wrote Le Billon and Ladefoged.
As such, the BBNJ could prove a “case study” of sustaining environmental progress without the US and of China “learning to translate its ambitions into leadership”, said Li.
Watch, read, listen
PROFIT PRESSURE: The Economic Observer investigated how higher profit remittance requirements for state-owned enterprises is placing pressure on the balance sheets of power, coal and other energy companies.
CARNEY’S CALCULUS: The Wire China Podcast discussed how a deteriorating relationship with the US affected Canada’s approach to importing Chinese electric vehicles.
AFRICAN SOLAR: Climate Home News interviewed a renewables company working in Africa about what the end of Chinese solar export rebates could mean for the continent.
FUEL PRICE WOES: The New York Times published a video about how rising diesel prices are hitting China’s long-haul truck drivers hard.
140%
The year-on-year rise in March in exports of Chinese new-energy vehicles (NEVs, including both plug-in hybrids and pure electric vehicles), reported Bloomberg, citing renewed interest caused by the “global energy shock stemming from the Iran war”.
-14%
The year-on-year fall in March in domestic sales of Chinese NEVs, reported Yicai, citing “changes to the NEV purchase tax exemption and the overlapping effects of the Chinese New Year holiday”.
New science
- Between 1978 and 2023, emissions of “gaseous reactive nitrogen” – including ammonia and nitrous oxide – from croplands in China more than doubled | PNAS
- There are “disparities in [the] energy transition” between households in rural China, with small, low-income households and areas in the Loess plateau facing a “disproportionate energy burden and energy poverty” | Communications Earth and Environment
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China Briefing is written by Anika Patel, with contributions from Lekai Liu, and edited by Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org
The post China Briefing 16 April 2026: Billions for grid | Petrochemical plan | China’s high-seas bid appeared first on Carbon Brief.
China Briefing 16 April 2026: Billions for grid | Petrochemical plan | China’s high-seas bid
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