Saudi Arabia has cancelled plans to raise the limit on the amount of oil it aims to produce, fuelling climate campaigners’ hopes the government will accept experts’ predictions of a peak in oil demand.
The energy ministry told state-owned oil giant Saudi Aramco not to go ahead with a planned increase of its production cap from 12 to 13 million barrels a day, the company announced on Tuesday.
In a brief and unexpected statement, the world’s biggest oil firm gave no reasons for the move. But some analysts speculated that the Saudi government’s faith in ever-growing oil demand may be declining.
Saudi Arabia currently produces around 9 million barrels. A million barrels is just over 1% of the world’s oil production and equivalent to that pumped out by medium-sized oil producers like Angola or the United Kingdom.
Writing on the wall?
Oil Change International campaigner Romain Ioualalen said the decision shows Saudi Arabia “is starting to realise that the world meant it when it committed to “transition away from fossil fuels” at Cop28″.
Linking it to the US decision last week to pause new gas export terminals, Ioualalen said “the era of unchecked fossil fuel expansion is over and we’re entering the era of renewable energy”.
US government pauses new gas export terminals in ‘historic win’ for climate
Peter Wood, a strategist for oil producer Shell, said on X that “the market doesn’t need more oil production capacity right now” but with oil wells coming to the end of their lives “that can change, even if oil demand [growth] slows”.
But, while climate campaigners celebrated the signal, energy geopolitics researcher Francesco Sassi said Saudi Arabia may just be trying to push up the oil price to balance its budget.
Sassi also pointed out that over the last five years, Saudi Arabia has been burning less of its oil for electricity domestically, as it ramps up gas and invests in renewables. That leaves it more to export.
Carbon Tracker analyst Guy Prince pointed out that the new cap is still three million barrels above its current level so the country still has plenty of space to increase production.
But he added that, if Saudi Arabia is serious about restraining oil production, that would be a good move for the country.
“Considering that they’re looking to diversify their economy away from fossil fuels in the long term, it doesn’t make any sense to expand their existing production capacity,” he said.
Opec vs IEA
For years, the Saudi-led Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) has clashed with the International Energy Agency (IEA) over whether oil demand will decline or not.
The IEA predicts that, over the next five years, oil demand growth is “set to lose momentum…as the energy transition gathers pace, with an overall peak looming on the horizon”.
On the other hand, Opec claims oil demand will keep growing to 2045 and perhaps beyond.
Prince said it was “hard to see” Opec’s forecast panning out when there is “such a rapid rollout of renewable technology” and the possibility of governments stepping up climate action.
The differences in predictions are most acute for road transport. The IEA says oil demand for petrol will fall by 2028 as electric vehicle sales “soar” but Opec predicts it will keep growing strongly, although it accepts there are “high levels of uncertainties” because of the rise of electric vehicles.
Despite most major developing countries having net zero plans, Opec expects the developing world to be using more oil in 2045 than they do now.
It says this growth will be led by the world’s most populous country India, where it claims oil demand will double by 2045 as more gasoline and diesel are used.
Recent reporting from the Centre for Climate Reporting revealed Saudi Arabia has been taking measures to prop up oil demand across Asia and Africa, by investing in oil-guzzling technologies.
In the run-up to Cop28, the OPEC and the IEA clashed publicly. The IEA said that the oil and gas industry faces a “moment of truth” and “must choose between fuelling the climate crisis or embracing the shift to clean energy.
The head of Opec responded with a blog post, accusing the IEA of “unjustly villif[ying] the industry as being behind the crisis”.
At Cop28, Opec warned its members that “pressure against fossil fuels may reach a tipping point with irreversible consequences”.
But after governments agreed to “transitioning away from fossil fuels in enegy systems”, the Saudi energy minister played down the decision.
Two weeks after the summit, he claimed that this was optional. This claim was labelled “incredibly misleading” by E3G analyst Tom Evans.
The post Saudi Arabia cancels plan to raise oil pumping cap appeared first on Climate Home News.
The Endangered Species Committee, known as the God Squad, issued a rare exemption from compliance with the Endangered Species Act for oil and gas activities in the Gulf of Mexico.
Environmental groups are suing the Trump administration over its decision to exempt oil and gas drilling in the Gulf of Mexico from complying with the Endangered Species Act, a move they say threatens both the coastline region and the law designed to protect threatened plants and animals.
Environmental Groups Take Trump Administration’s ‘God Squad’ to Court
The ocean’s fastest and most formidable predators might also be the most physiologically vulnerable to warming waters, researchers warn.
The evolutionary edge that fueled great white shark dominance for millions of years could soon become its greatest downfall.
Climate Change
China Briefing 16 April 2026: Billions for grid | Petrochemical plan | China’s high-seas bid
Welcome to Carbon Brief’s China Briefing.
China Briefing handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight. Subscribe for free here.
Key developments
Surge in grid investment
TRILLION-YUAN ERA: China’s two largest power grid operators invested a total of 167.5bn yuan ($24.5bn) in the first quarter of 2026, reported state broadcaster CCTV. State Grid said that during this period it spent more than 10bn yuan on connecting “new energy” projects to the grid, up 50% from last year, reported Shanghai-based news outlet the Paper. The two state-owned enterprises (SOEs) plan to invest 1tn yuan ($146bn) annually over the 15th five-year plan period (2026-2030), said finance news outlet Yicai.
POWER CURBED: However, in what Bloomberg called a “clear signal that the grid is struggling to absorb all the extra power from the rapid growth in renewables”, solar and wind utilisation rates – the percentage of total power generated by a source that is used by the grid – fell again at the start of the year. They stood at 90.8% and 91.5%, respectively, in January and February 2026, according to a post by an SOE-linked research institute republished by energy news outlet International Energy Net. The rates are now “approaching [minimum] limits that the government had relaxed only two years ago”, added Bloomberg.
SIX PROVINCES SUPERVISED: A recent meeting of the National Energy Administration (NEA) concluded that China’s renewable installations had seen “steady growth” in 2026, adding that the body must make “sustained efforts” to “expand” investment in renewable power, reported International Energy Net. Separately, International Energy Net also said that the NEA will increase “supervision” of the power sectors in six provinces – Hebei, Jilin, Xinjiang, Fujian, Hunan and Guangdong. The outlet said this would entail scrutinising how they implement “energy conservation and carbon reduction” tasks, with a “focus” on coal plants, how they construct large clean-energy bases and their consumption of new energy, as well as their power infrastructure and markets.
Conflict spurred cooperation with China
CHINA ‘WINNING’: In Vienna, Chinese climate envoy Liu Zhenmin told state news agency Xinhua that the Middle East conflict has created an urgent need for countries to rethink energy security strategies and accelerate the energy transition. Xinhua also cited Liu as warning against over-reliance on a single source of energy imports. Meanwhile, state broadcaster CCTV published a segment arguing that a “greener” system will “provide a strong guarantee” for energy security, although it did not mention the conflict. Several outlets have continued to highlight how low-carbon energy has helped China weather the conflict and boosted sales of Chinese technologies, including the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Associated Press, Indian Express, Washington Post and Bloomberg. Semafor said China was “winning the global energy war”.
MANY MEETINGS: United Arab Emirates crown prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Chinese president Xi Jinping discussed how to “prevent further impacts” from the conflict on energy security, said Xinhua. Australian prime minister Anthony Albanese said he addressed “regional energy security” with Chinese premier Li Qiang, reported Reuters. A post by China-Russia Information Net on nationalist media outlet Guancha quoted a Chinese diplomat in Russia telling reporters that “current dramatic changes in the international situation” are causing the two countries to discuss “further energy cooperation”. The Philippines is continuing to consider “oil and gas cooperation” with China, despite territorial disputes, Reuters also reported.
‘PROFOUND’ IMPACTS: Energy administration head Wang Hongzhi wrote a chapter in a “study guide” to the 15th five-year plan, published by industry outlet China Power News Net, in which he noted that “geopolitical conflicts are profoundly reshaping the global energy landscape”. He added that “traditional fossil fuels must continue to serve as a safety net while [China] simultaneously accelerates efforts to transition [to clean energy sources]”. Environment minister Huang Runqiu wrote in the CPPCC Daily, the official newspaper for the advisory body Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), that China will “earnestly” carry out “carbon peaking actions” in the next five years. Huang also said that, with “concerted efforts”, China’s 15th five-year plan targets are “achievable”.
Petrochemical plan published
UPGRADE DEADLINE: China issued a plan for either upgrading or phasing out “outdated” petrochemical plants by 2029, reported Reuters. It added that the plan did not confirm explicitly “how many plants may be upgraded or phased out”. The news outlet Economic Daily said that, according to the document, China would focus on upgrading or phasing out outdated capacity “as determined in 2025”, while also developing a “long-term working system” for assessing the industry. According to the full document, published on the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) website, carbon-emission assessments were part of the selection criteria, with policymakers planning on “developing or revising” further standards for carbon emissions under the plan.
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CHEMICAL OVERCAPACITY: The Paper quoted MIIT official Chang Guowu telling reporters that the plan will address the “low standards of design and construction” and “outdated processes” in older plants that lead to “significant” environmental risks. Xinhua said that, of China’s more than 27,000 petrochemical plants, “more than 1,600…outdated facilities” were reported in 2025, 600 of which required upgrading. Chemical news WeChat account WeLink Chemicals noted the policy was released against a backdrop of “overcapacity and declining demand for road transport fuels”, with the government having “stepped up efforts to curb overcapacity” in 2025.
More China news
- TARGET PLEDGED: China will cut the carbon intensity of its international shipping vessels by at least 15% by 2030 compared to 2025 levels, said climate outlet IdeaCarbon. It said China will also “significantly enhance” its influence in emission reduction talks at the International Maritime Organization.
- SANCHEZ VISITED: China and Spain “can contribute to finding solutions” for environmental issues, Spanish leader Pedro Sanchez told Xi Jinping, according to the Associated Press. Ahead of the meeting, Sanchez also argued China should play a more substantial role on climate change, said the Singapore-based Straits Times.
- CHINA COMMITTED: Huang Runqiu reaffirmed China’s support, “as always”, for global climate governance in a meeting with UN advisor Selwin Hart, said the Paper.
- FUNDING HALTED: The EU “quietly” approved a plan to prevent EU funds being provided to “clean technology projects containing Chinese inverters”, said the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post.
- AI UNVEILED: Chinese researchers developed a “first-of-its-kind artificial intelligence model designed to track carbon emissions”, reported Xinhua, adding that it “could shift the balance of power” in global climate negotiations, such as by quantifying the “embedded carbon” of products that developed countries import from China.
- CONTROLS CONSIDERED: China is deliberating “limiting exports” to the US of the equipment needed to make solar panels, according to Reuters.
Spotlight
The debate over China’s bid to host the “high seas” treaty
The final preparatory commission for the Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction (BBNJ) agreement has closed, laying the groundwork for the treaty’s first conference of the parties (COP1).
One key agenda item was China’s presentation of a bid to host the secretariat. In this issue, Carbon Brief examines the debate surrounding the bid.
The BBNJ agreement, also known as the High Seas Treaty, governs the sustainable use and conservation of the “high seas” – marine areas outside national jurisdictions – with a new United Nations (UN) body established to oversee enforcement.
As well as facing significant impacts from climate change, the ocean plays an important role as a carbon sink, absorbing around 29% of man-made emissions.
The treaty “recognis[es]” the need to address oceanic biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation, according to previous Carbon Brief analysis, identifying key impacts from climate change, acidification, pollution and “unsustainable” use.
It aims to encourage conservation and sustainable use of marine biodiversity in the high seas, such as by managing “marine genetic resources”, creating protected areas in the ocean, developing environmental impact assessments and facilitating capacity-building and transfer of marine technology.
China’s bid
China’s bid to host the secretariat focused on its “sustainability efforts” and “commitment to multilateralism”, reported the Earth Negotiations Bulletin.
The country’s bid document drew attention to several of its emission-reduction efforts, including “green shipping corridors” and strengthening carbon sinks through protecting mangroves, seagrass beds and coral reefs.
In a speech, Chinese ambassador to the UN Fu Cong said that the bid “reflects China’s unwavering support” for multilateralism, adding that a successful Chinese bid would lead to the first UN-related body headquartered in the Asia Pacific region. He said:
“That means it will not only be welcomed, but also be prioritised. It will have the full backing from all levels of government in China and its people.”
Li Shuo, director at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s China climate hub, attended the meetings. He said in a note that China’s decision to bid “reportedly came from [President] Xi Jinping”, galvanising a coordinated cross-ministry effort to secure host the secretariat.
Creating debate
China entering the race has caused a stir.
As host, it could inhibit “robust environmental safeguards” by “embedding elements of its domestic governance model” into how the treaty operates, wrote Dr Chime Youdon, research fellow at India’s National Maritime Foundation, on the organisation’s platform.
But such concerns are weakened by the fact that China would “want the treaty to function” if it were host, argued Prof Philippe Le Billon and Zelda Ladefoged, professor and master’s student at the University of British Columbia, in an article for the Conversation.
Nevertheless, they noted “sustained” worries around China’s influence, given the extensive involvement of its companies in distant-water fishing and deep-sea mining, which are not covered in the treaty.
Li told Carbon Brief that, as far as he saw, no-one was “actively pushing back against” the bid on any of the above grounds. Instead, he observed “anxieties” around “accreditation, information security and visa and conference participation issues”.
Daniel Kachelriess, cross-cutting coordinator at the High Seas Alliance, an umbrella group of non-governmental organisations focused on ocean governance, echoed this in comments to Carbon Brief. He said “values like neutrality and impartiality, transparency and accountability” are important for the decision, as well as practical issues such as “reliable” internet access.
The Financial Times reported that Chinese delegates have offered immunity to attendees and flexibility around visas, citing unnamed sources.
But a successful Chinese bid could be a “significant escalation” of China’s involvement in global environmental governance, wrote Le Billon and Ladefoged.
As such, the BBNJ could prove a “case study” of sustaining environmental progress without the US and of China “learning to translate its ambitions into leadership”, said Li.
Watch, read, listen
PROFIT PRESSURE: The Economic Observer investigated how higher profit remittance requirements for state-owned enterprises is placing pressure on the balance sheets of power, coal and other energy companies.
CARNEY’S CALCULUS: The Wire China Podcast discussed how a deteriorating relationship with the US affected Canada’s approach to importing Chinese electric vehicles.
AFRICAN SOLAR: Climate Home News interviewed a renewables company working in Africa about what the end of Chinese solar export rebates could mean for the continent.
FUEL PRICE WOES: The New York Times published a video about how rising diesel prices are hitting China’s long-haul truck drivers hard.
140%
The year-on-year rise in March in exports of Chinese new-energy vehicles (NEVs, including both plug-in hybrids and pure electric vehicles), reported Bloomberg, citing renewed interest caused by the “global energy shock stemming from the Iran war”.
-14%
The year-on-year fall in March in domestic sales of Chinese NEVs, reported Yicai, citing “changes to the NEV purchase tax exemption and the overlapping effects of the Chinese New Year holiday”.
New science
- Between 1978 and 2023, emissions of “gaseous reactive nitrogen” – including ammonia and nitrous oxide – from croplands in China more than doubled | PNAS
- There are “disparities in [the] energy transition” between households in rural China, with small, low-income households and areas in the Loess plateau facing a “disproportionate energy burden and energy poverty” | Communications Earth and Environment
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China Briefing is written by Anika Patel, with contributions from Lekai Liu, and edited by Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org
The post China Briefing 16 April 2026: Billions for grid | Petrochemical plan | China’s high-seas bid appeared first on Carbon Brief.
China Briefing 16 April 2026: Billions for grid | Petrochemical plan | China’s high-seas bid
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