Published

1 year ago

December 25, 2024

Alice Rush

在特朗普（Donald Trump）开始第二个美国总统任期之际，中美再次打响贸易战几乎已成定局，而对能源转型至关重要的矿物可能会陷入这场交锋的漩涡。

特朗普已威胁要对来自中国、以及通过其他国家输往美国的中国商品加征关税。

与此同时，中国正在制定一套“多样化”的政策工具包，以应对日益加剧的贸易紧张局势。最近一个值得注意的例子是中国对锗、镓、石墨和锑等四种矿物实行出口管制。

所有这些矿物都在低碳技术中发挥着重要作用，但同时也具有军事等其他用途。

Carbon Brief等机构的分析表明，中国于2023年夏季首次实施的出口管制并未对关键矿物供应链产生持续影响。

然而，2024年12月初宣布的更严格的管控措施，特别是对美出口的限制，引发了关于这些措施可能产生多大影响的辩论。

在本文中，Carbon Brief探讨了美中之间围绕关键矿物的紧张关系，可能对供应链稳定性以及清洁能源转型产生的影响。

哪些矿物对清洁能源转型至关重要？

矿物对多种低碳技术的发展至关重要。

例如，铟和镓用于太阳能电池板的涂层，铜和“稀土”金属用于风力发电机的导体和永磁体，而从锂到锰的各种矿物则广泛应用于不同类型的电池。

中国在许多矿物的供应链中占据重要地位，尤其是在加工环节。如下表所示，全球超过一半的石墨、稀土元素（REEs）和钒的开采，以及大部分铝、钴、石墨、铟、锂、稀土元素和硅的加工均集中在中国。

然而，并非所有这些材料都被视为“关键矿物”。“关键矿物”是一个政治术语，用于描述那些在重要战略领域中发挥作用的矿物。

美国将50种矿物列为关键矿物，欧盟确定了34种关键矿物和另外16种“战略原材料”，而日本的清单上列出了35种矿物。

尽管中国自2016年以来没有更新其官方的关键矿物清单，但2023年11月，中国国家安全部官方公众号发布的一篇文章透露，中国至少将31种矿物视为关键矿物。

该文章比较了中国（橙色）、欧盟（绿色）和美国（蓝色）关键矿物清单中的重叠与差异部分。

大宗商品咨询公司CRU集团中国办事处特别顾问、前首席执行官约翰·约翰逊（John Johnson）告诉Carbon Brief，中国与欧盟和美国“清单上相似”的矿物在采购方面“竞争更激烈”。

尽管一些国家试图多样化关键矿物进口，以减少对中国的依赖，但国际能源署（IEA）的分析发现，根据已宣布的项目，从现在到2030年，矿物供应的现状不太可能改变。

不过，IEA指出，在电池制造等部分领域，欧洲和美国“已宣布的产能增加”应该“足以”满足2030年的国内应用需求。

但价格评估机构Benchmark Minerals Intelligence专注于石墨的高级分析师托尼·奥尔德森（Tony Alderson）对这一乐观预测表示怀疑。他告诉Carbon Brief，“对于设施利用率能达到100%的情况几乎闻所未闻”。他补充称，2030年以后，美国和欧盟对石墨的需求可能会远远超过供应。

中国控制关键矿物的能力如何演变？

在拜登政府时期，美国采用了“小院高墙”（small yard, high fence）策略，对半导体行业实施了一系列出口管制，并鼓励盟友采取类似措施。

作为回应，中国开始限制一些关键矿物的出口，包括在2023年8月对某些类型的镓和锗的出口实施管制，随后于2023年12月对石墨实施管制、于2024年9月对锑实施管制。

除锑之外，这些管制显然是北京对美国遏制中国半导体进口措施的回应。

与此同时，中国加强了出口管制制度，将分散的一系列出口管制政策统一整合为单一框架。

这包括制订“不可靠实体清单”、出口管制法、反外国制裁法和对被认为是“两用”物项的监管。

策纬咨询公司（Trivium China）的关键矿物和供应链研究负责人科里·康布斯（Cory Combs）告诉Carbon Brief：“（中国）过去的出口管制体系极为零散。”

他补充道，最近政策推进的主要目标之一是通过“确保所有内容集中管理且规则一致”来改善合规性。

这些举措为中国在2024年12月初加强关键矿物出口限制铺平了道路，其加大了对石墨出口的限制，并“原则上”禁止向美国出口镓、锗和锑。

中国商务部发言人表示，此举是对美国通过对中国芯片制造业实施广泛限制，将自己的出口管制“武器化”的回应。

初步出口禁令对关键矿物贸易流向的影响如何？

对中国初步出口管制（涉及镓、石墨和锗）的分析显示，尽管新规出台，但贸易大体上仍在继续。

如下方Carbon Brief汇编的图表所示，在2023年8月限制生效后，受限类型的镓和锗出口暂停了两个月。然而，这些出口从2023年10月起恢复，尽管水平略有下降。

并非所有类型的目标关键矿物都受到了为期两个月的暂停的影响，非管制产品（如锗氧化物）的流量没有明显变化。

对于石墨而言，主要产品的出口量总体保持稳定，但在限制措施实施前出现了出口量激增，这可能是由于囤积所致。2024年的平均出口量高于2022年水平。

奥尔德森告诉Carbon Brief，出口商发现，当局对韩国和日本的出口审批特别迅速，而针对美国和印度的产品“需要更长时间”才能获批。其他分析师报告说，大多数许可证似乎已经获批。

这种结果可能是有意为之。Trivium China的康布斯告诉Carbon Brief，初步出口管制的目标是提高中国对其加工的矿物使用情况的了解，这也是为何要求出口商申请许可证，而不是直接全面禁止出口的原因。

因此，立即切断对其他国家的供应并不是最初公告的目的。

对关键矿物的初步管制总体上遵循了中国之前非关税贸易措施的类似模式。除了锑以外，对关键矿物的管制都是为了应对被认为“损害中国国家主权、安全和发展利益”的企图，而非打响贸易争端的第一枪。

英国皇家联合研究所（RUSI）的一份报告指出，这是因为中国意识到全面出口禁令会加速其他国家实行去风险和实现供应链多样化，从而削弱中国的长期地位。

严格的出口管制也会让中国国内付出代价，影响工业活动和更广泛的经济增长。因此，皇家联合研究所认为，出口管制可能会被调整到既能吸引关注，又不会造成其所说的严重经济影响的程度。

对美管制是否标志着中国战略的重大变化？

2024年12月初宣布的措施显示，中国在对关键矿物出口管制方面进行了明显升级。

根据新规，镓、锗和锑“原则上”将不再允许出口到美国，石墨的销售也将受到更严格的控制。

康布斯与Trivium China联合创始人安德鲁·波尔克（Andrew Polk）在分析中写道，这些限制措施是一个信号，表明中国“准备更积极地反击美国的行动”。

这呼应了中国央行前行长易纲的说法。据《南华早报》报道，易纲表示：“我们都明白，从经济学角度，不予报复是最优解……但（面对国内压力），决策者几乎没有选择。”

奥尔德森指出，还需要更多时间观察政策实施的“严格程度”。就石墨而言，目前尚不清楚哪些产品会受到影响——更严格的管制可能仅限于“用于军事最终用途材料的99.999%（纯度）”，而非用于电动车电池的低纯度石墨。

Trivium China的评估指出，此次宣布表明中国将“堵住”允许“出口泄漏”的漏洞，但目前尚不清楚“北京会在多大程度上调查或惩罚涉嫌违规转口的第三国”。

彭博经济（Bloomberg Economics）高级地缘经济分析师杰拉德·迪皮波（Gerard di Pippo）对威胁的严重性持怀疑态度，他写道：“中国缺乏强制第三国遵守规定所需的法律影响力、出口管制监控能力和联盟网络。”

其他分析人士告诉《麻省理工科技评论》（MIT Technology Review），由于美国已采取措施使其供应链多样化，因此“在大多数情况下，这些禁令不会产生重大经济影响”。

尽管如此，奥尔德森表示，当前的不确定性凸显了对关键矿物的依赖者而言，“本地化至关重要”。

未来中美紧张局势会加剧对关键矿物的控制吗？

康布斯和波尔克写道，中国近期管制的动机尚不明确。这可能是为了抗议美国限制特定芯片及制造工具的出口，以及将140家中国公司列入贸易黑名单，也可能是为了“警告即将上台的特朗普政府”不要加剧紧张局势。

外界普遍预计，特朗普开始其第二任期后，美中贸易紧张关系将加剧。

美国两党都对中国“威胁”其工业能力表示担忧。然而，特朗普第二任期可能会优先使用广泛的关税来缩小对华贸易逆差。

康布斯告诉Carbon Brief，北京的目标是“改变美国的行为”，因此在争端中会使用特朗普能够理解的手段，如广泛的贸易关税，而不是出口管制等更细微的工具。

他补充说，特朗普的顾问们会在多大程度上重视关键矿物还有待观察。如果北京使用额外管制施压特定的美国公司，促使它们向美国政府施压，这一问题可能会进入决策视野。

约翰逊指出，中国有理由避免将关键矿物出口问题进一步升级，鉴于其在高纯度石英、铁矿石和钾肥等矿物出口等方面依赖于美国。

此外，他表示，各国认为的关键矿物“会随着时间而变化”，因为新技术会创造对新矿物的需求，同时使其他矿物变得过时。

回收技术的发展也可能缓解供应链压力。国际能源署指出，如果成功扩大回收利用规模，“到2050年，新采矿活动需求可降低25%至40%”。

The post Q&A: 中美贸易战对能源转型意味着什么？ appeared first on Carbon Brief.

Q&A: 中美贸易战对能源转型意味着什么？

Greenhouse Gases

DeBriefed 27 February 2026: Trump’s fossil-fuel talk | Modi-Lula rare-earth pact | Is there a UK ‘greenlash’?

Published

1 day ago

February 27, 2026

Alice Rush

Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.

This week

Absolute State of the Union

‘DRILL, BABY’: US president Donald Trump “doubled down on his ‘drill, baby, drill’ agenda” in his State of the Union (SOTU) address, said the Los Angeles Times. He “tout[ed] his support of the fossil-fuel industry and renew[ed] his focus on electricity affordability”, reported the Financial Times. Trump also attacked the “green new scam”, noted Carbon Brief’s SOTU tracker.

COAL REPRIEVE: Earlier in the week, the Trump administration had watered down limits on mercury pollution from coal-fired power plants, reported the Financial Times. It remains “unclear” if this will be enough to prevent the decline of coal power, said Bloomberg, in the face of lower-cost gas and renewables. Reuters noted that US coal plants are “ageing”.

OIL STAY: The US Supreme Court agreed to hear arguments brought by the oil industry in a “major lawsuit”, reported the New York Times. The newspaper said the firms are attempting to head off dozens of other lawsuits at state level, relating to their role in global warming.

SHIP-SHILLING: The Trump administration is working to “kill” a global carbon levy on shipping “permanently”, reported Politico, after succeeding in delaying the measure late last year. The Guardian said US “bullying” could be “paying off”, after Panama signalled it was reversing its support for the levy in a proposal submitted to the UN shipping body.

Around the world

RARE EARTHS: The governments of Brazil and India signed a deal on rare earths, said the Times of India, as well as agreeing to collaborate on renewable energy.
HEAT ROLLBACK: German homes will be allowed to continue installing gas and oil heating, under watered-down government plans covered by Clean Energy Wire.
BRAZIL FLOODS: At least 53 people died in floods in the state of Minas Gerais, after some areas saw 170mm of rain in a few hours, reported CNN Brasil.
ITALY’S ATTACK: Italy is calling for the EU to “suspend” its emissions trading system (ETS) ahead of a review later this year, said Politico.
COOKSTOVE CREDITS: The first-ever carbon credits under the Paris Agreement have been issued to a cookstove project in Myanmar, said Climate Home News.
SAUDI SOLAR: Turkey has signed a “major” solar deal that will see Saudi firm ACWA building 2 gigawatts in the country, according to Agence France-Presse.

$467 billion

The profits made by five major oil firms since prices spiked following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine four years ago, according to a report by Global Witness covered by BusinessGreen.

Latest climate research

Claims about the “fingerprint” of human-caused climate change, made in a recent US Department of Energy report, are “factually incorrect” | AGU Advances
Large lakes in the Congo Basin are releasing carbon dioxide into the atmosphere from “immense ancient stores” | Nature Geoscience
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways – scenarios used regularly in climate modelling – underrepresent “narratives explicitly centring on democratic principles such as participation, accountability and justice” | npj Climate Action

(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)

Captured

The constituency of Richard Tice MP, the climate-sceptic deputy leader of Reform UK, is the second-largest recipient of flood defence spending in England, according to new Carbon Brief analysis. Overall, the funding is disproportionately targeted at coastal and urban areas, many of which have Conservative or Liberal Democrat MPs.

Spotlight

Is there really a UK ‘greenlash’?

This week, after a historic Green Party byelection win, Carbon Brief looks at whether there really is a “greenlash” against climate policy in the UK.

Over the past year, the UK’s political consensus on climate change has been shattered.

Yet despite a sharp turn against climate action among right-wing politicians and right-leaning media outlets, UK public support for climate action remains strong.

Prof Federica Genovese, who studies climate politics at the University of Oxford, told Carbon Brief:

“The current ‘war’ on green policy is mostly driven by media and political elites, not by the public.”

Indeed, there is still a greater than two-to-one majority among the UK public in favour of the country’s legally binding target to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, as shown below.

Steve Akehurst, director of public-opinion research initiative Persuasion UK, also noted the growing divide between the public and “elites”. He told Carbon Brief:

“The biggest movement is, without doubt, in media and elite opinion. There is a bit more polarisation and opposition [to climate action] among voters, but it’s typically no more than 20-25% and mostly confined within core Reform voters.”

Conservative gear shift

For decades, the UK had enjoyed strong, cross-party political support for climate action.

Lord Deben, the Conservative peer and former chair of the Climate Change Committee, told Carbon Brief that the UK’s landmark 2008 Climate Change Act had been born of this cross-party consensus, saying “all parties supported it”.

Since their landslide loss at the 2024 election, however, the Conservatives have turned against the UK’s target of net-zero emissions by 2050, which they legislated for in 2019.

Curiously, while opposition to net-zero has surged among Conservative MPs, there is majority support for the target among those that plan to vote for the party, as shown below.

Dr Adam Corner, advisor to the Climate Barometer initiative that tracks public opinion on climate change, told Carbon Brief that those who currently plan to vote Reform are the only segment who “tend to be more opposed to net-zero goals”. He said:

“Despite the rise in hostile media coverage and the collapse of the political consensus, we find that public support for the net-zero by 2050 target is plateauing – not plummeting.”

Reform, which rejects the scientific evidence on global warming and campaigns against net-zero, has been leading the polls for a year. (However, it was comfortably beaten by the Greens in yesterday’s Gorton and Denton byelection.)

Corner acknowledged that “some of the anti-net zero noise…[is] showing up in our data”, adding:

“We see rising concerns about the near-term costs of policies and an uptick in people [falsely] attributing high energy bills to climate initiatives.”

But Akehurst said that, rather than a big fall in public support, there had been a drop in the “salience” of climate action:

“So many other issues [are] competing for their attention.”

UK newspapers published more editorials opposing climate action than supporting it for the first time on record in 2025, according to Carbon Brief analysis.

Global ‘greenlash’?

All of this sits against a challenging global backdrop, in which US president Donald Trump has been repeating climate-sceptic talking points and rolling back related policy.

At the same time, prominent figures have been calling for a change in climate strategy, sold variously as a “reset”, a “pivot”, as “realism”, or as “pragmatism”.

Genovese said that “far-right leaders have succeeded in the past 10 years in capturing net-zero as a poster child of things they are ‘fighting against’”.

She added that “much of this is fodder for conservative media and this whole ecosystem is essentially driving what we call the ‘greenlash’”.

Corner said the “disconnect” between elite views and the wider public “can create problems” – for example, “MPs consistently underestimate support for renewables”. He added:

“There is clearly a risk that the public starts to disengage too, if not enough positive voices are countering the negative ones.”

Watch, read, listen

TRUMP’S ‘PETROSTATE’: The US is becoming a “petrostate” that will be “sicker and poorer”, wrote Financial Times associate editor Rana Forohaar.

RHETORIC VS REALITY: Despite a “political mood [that] has darkened”, there is “more green stuff being installed than ever”, said New York Times columnist David Wallace-Wells.
CHINA’S ‘REVOLUTION’: The BBC’s Climate Question podcast reported from China on the “green energy revolution” taking place in the country.

Coming up

2-6 March: UN Food and Agriculture Organization regional conference for Latin America and Caribbean, Brasília
3 March: UK spring statement
4-11 March: China’s “two sessions”
5 March: Nepal elections

Pick of the jobs

The Guardian, senior reporter, climate justice | Salary: $123,000-$135,000. Location: New York or Washington DC
China-Global South Project, non-resident fellow, climate change | Salary: Up to $1,000 a month. Location: Remote
University of East Anglia, PhD in mobilising community-based climate action through co-designed sports and wellbeing interventions | Salary: Stipend (unknown amount). Location: Norwich, UK
TABLE and the University of São Paulo, Brazil, postdoctoral researcher in food system narratives | Salary: Unknown. Location: Pirassununga, Brazil

DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.

This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.

The post DeBriefed 27 February 2026: Trump’s fossil-fuel talk | Modi-Lula rare-earth pact | Is there a UK ‘greenlash’? appeared first on Carbon Brief.

DeBriefed 27 February 2026: Trump’s fossil-fuel talk | Modi-Lula rare-earth pact | Is there a UK ‘greenlash’?

Greenhouse Gases

Analysis: Constituency of Reform’s climate-sceptic Richard Tice gets £55m flood funding

Published

1 day ago

February 27, 2026

Alice Rush

The Lincolnshire constituency held by Richard Tice, the climate-sceptic deputy leader of the hard-right Reform party, has been pledged at least £55m in government funding for flood defences since 2024.

This investment in Boston and Skegness is the second-largest sum for a single constituency from a £1.4bn flood-defence fund for England, Carbon Brief analysis shows.

Flooding is becoming more likely and more extreme in the UK due to climate change.

Yet, for years, governments have failed to spend enough on flood defences to protect people, properties and infrastructure.

The £1.4bn fund is part of the current Labour government’s wider pledge to invest a “record” £7.9bn over a decade on protecting hundreds of thousands of homes and businesses from flooding.

As MP for one of England’s most flood-prone regions, Tice has called for more investment in flood defences, stating that “we cannot afford to ‘surrender the fens’ to the sea”.

He is also one of Reform’s most vocal opponents of climate action and what he calls “net stupid zero”. He denies the scientific consensus on climate change and has claimed, falsely and without evidence, that scientists are “lying”.

Flood defences

Last year, the government said it would invest £2.65bn on flood and coastal erosion risk management (FCERM) schemes in England between April 2024 and March 2026.

This money was intended to protect 66,500 properties from flooding. It is part of a decade-long Labour government plan to spend more than £7.9bn on flood defences.

There has been a consistent shortfall in maintaining England’s flood defences, with the Environment Agency expecting to protect fewer properties by 2027 than it had initially planned.

The Climate Change Committee (CCC) has attributed this to rising costs, backlogs from previous governments and a lack of capacity. It also points to the strain from “more frequent and severe” weather events, such as storms in recent years that have been amplified by climate change.

However, the CCC also said last year that, if the 2024-26 spending programme is delivered, it would be “slightly closer to the track” of the Environment Agency targets out to 2027.

The government has released constituency-level data on which schemes in England it plans to fund, covering £1.4bn of the 2024-26 investment. The other half of the FCERM spending covers additional measures, from repairing existing defences to advising local authorities.

The map below shows the distribution of spending on FCERM schemes in England over the past two years, highlighting the constituency of Richard Tice.

Map of England showing that Richard Tice's Boston and Skegness constituency is set to receive at least £55m for flood defences between 2024 and 2026 — Flood-defence spending on new and replacement schemes in England in 2024-25 and 2025-26. The government notes that, as Environment Agency accounts have not been finalised and approved, the investment data is “provisional and subject to change”. Some schemes cover multiple constituencies and are not included on the map. Source: Environment Agency FCERM data.

By far the largest sum of money – £85.6m in total – has been committed to a tidal barrier and various other defences in the Somerset constituency of Bridgwater, the seat of Conservative MP Ashley Fox.

Over the first months of 2026, the south-west region has faced significant flooding and Fox has called for more support from the government, citing “climate patterns shifting and rainfall intensifying”.

He has also backed his party’s position that “the 2050 net-zero target is impossible” and called for more fossil-fuel extraction in the North Sea.

Tice’s east-coast constituency of Boston and Skegness, which is highly vulnerable to flooding from both rivers and the sea, is set to receive £55m. Among the supported projects are beach defences from Saltfleet to Gibraltar Point and upgrades to pumping stations.

Overall, Boston and Skegness has the second-largest portion of flood-defence funding, as the chart below shows. Constituencies with Conservative and Liberal Democrat MPs occupied the other top positions.

Chart showing that Conservative, Reform and Liberal Democrat constituencies are the top recipients of flood defence spending — Top 10 English constituencies by FCERM funding in 2024-25 and 2025-26. Source: Environment Agency FCERM data.

Overall, despite Labour MPs occupying 347 out of England’s 543 constituencies – nearly two-thirds of the total – more than half of the flood-defence funding was distributed to constituencies with non-Labour MPs. This reflects the flood risk in coastal and rural areas that are not traditional Labour strongholds.

Reform funding

While Reform has just eight MPs, representing 1% of the population, its constituencies have been assigned 4% of the flood-defence funding for England.

Nearly all of this money was for Tice’s constituency, although party leader Nigel Farage’s coastal Clacton seat in Kent received £2m.

Reform UK is committed to “scrapping net-zero” and its leadership has expressed firmly climate-sceptic views.

Much has been made of the disconnect between the party’s climate policies and the threat climate change poses to its voters. Various analyses have shown the flood risk in Reform-dominated areas, particularly Lincolnshire.

Tice has rejected climate science, advocated for fossil-fuel production and criticised Environment Agency flood-defence activities. Yet, he has also called for more investment in flood defences, stating that “we cannot afford to ‘surrender the fens’ to the sea”.

This may reflect Tice’s broader approach to climate change. In a 2024 interview with LBC, he said:

“Where you’ve got concerns about sea level defences and sea level rise, guess what? A bit of steel, a bit of cement, some aggregate…and you build some concrete sea level defences. That’s how you deal with rising sea levels.”

While climate adaptation is viewed as vital in a warming world, there are limits on how much societies can adapt and adaptation costs will continue to increase as emissions rise.

The post Analysis: Constituency of Reform’s climate-sceptic Richard Tice gets £55m flood funding appeared first on Carbon Brief.

Analysis: Constituency of Reform’s climate-sceptic Richard Tice gets £55m flood funding

Greenhouse Gases

Cropped 25 February 2026: Food inflation strikes | El Niño looms | Biodiversity talks stagnate

Published

3 days ago

February 25, 2026

Alice Rush

We handpick and explain the most important stories at the intersection of climate, land, food and nature over the past fortnight.

This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s fortnightly Cropped email newsletter.
Subscribe for free here.

Key developments

Food inflation on the rise

DELUGE STRIKES FOOD: Extreme rainfall and flooding across the Mediterranean and north Africa has “battered the winter growing regions that feed Europe…threatening food price rises”, reported the Financial Times. Western France has “endured more than 36 days of continuous rain”, while farmers’ associations in Spain’s Andalusia estimate that “20% of all production has been lost”, it added. Policy expert David Barmes told the paper that the “latest storms were part of a wider pattern of climate shocks feeding into food price inflation”.

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NO BEEF: The UK’s beef farmers, meanwhile, “face a double blow” from climate change as “relentless rain forces them to keep cows indoors”, while last summer’s drought hit hay supplies, said another Financial Times article. At the same time, indoor growers in south England described a 60% increase in electricity standing charges as a “ticking timebomb” that could “force them to raise their prices or stop production, which will further fuel food price inflation”, wrote the Guardian.

‘TINDERBOX’ AND TARIFFS: A study, covered by the Guardian, warned that major extreme weather and other “shocks” could “spark social unrest and even food riots in the UK”. Experts cited “chronic” vulnerabilities, including climate change, low incomes, poor farming policy and “fragile” supply chains that have made the UK’s food system a “tinderbox”. A New York Times explainer noted that while trade could once guard against food supply shocks, barriers such as tariffs and export controls – which are being “increasingly” used by politicians – “can shut off that safety valve”.

El Niño looms

NEW ENSO INDEX: Researchers have developed a new index for calculating El Niño, the large-scale climate pattern that influences global weather and causes “billions in damages by bringing floods to some regions and drought to others”, reported CNN. It added that climate change is making it more difficult for scientists to observe El Niño patterns by warming up the entire ocean. The outlet said that with the new metric, “scientists can now see it earlier and our long-range weather forecasts will be improved for it.”

WARMING WARNING: Meanwhile, the US Climate Prediction Center announced that there is a 60% chance of the current La Niña conditions shifting towards a neutral state over the next few months, with an El Niño likely to follow in late spring, according to Reuters. The Vibes, a Malaysian news outlet, quoted a climate scientist saying: “If the El Niño does materialise, it could possibly push 2026 or 2027 as the warmest year on record, replacing 2024.”

CROP IMPACTS: Reuters noted that neutral conditions lead to “more stable weather and potentially better crop yields”. However, the newswire added, an El Niño state would mean “worsening drought conditions and issues for the next growing season” to Australia. El Niño also “typically brings a poor south-west monsoon to India, including droughts”, reported the Hindu’s Business Line. A 2024 guest post for Carbon Brief explained that El Niño is linked to crop failure in south-eastern Africa and south-east Asia.

News and views

DAM-AG-ES: Several South Korean farmers filed a lawsuit against the country’s state-owned utility company, “seek[ing] financial compensation for climate-related agricultural damages”, reported United Press International. Meanwhile, a national climate change assessment for the Philippines found that the country “lost up to $219bn in agricultural damages from typhoons, floods and droughts” over 2000-10, according to Eco-Business.
SCORCHED GRASS: South Africa’s Western Cape province is experiencing “one of the worst droughts in living memory”, which is “scorching grass and killing livestock”, said Reuters. The newswire wrote: “In 2015, a drought almost dried up the taps in the city; farmers say this one has been even more brutal than a decade ago.”
NOUVELLE VEG: New guidelines published under France’s national food, nutrition and climate strategy “urged” citizens to “limit” their meat consumption, reported Euronews. The delayed strategy comes a month after the US government “upended decades of recommendations by touting consumption of red meat and full-fat dairy”, it noted.
COURTING DISASTER: India’s top green court accepted the findings of a committee that “found no flaws” in greenlighting the Great Nicobar project that “will lead to the felling of a million trees” and translocating corals, reported Mongabay. The court found “no good ground to interfere”, despite “threats to a globally unique biodiversity hotspot” and Indigenous tribes at risk of displacement by the project, wrote Frontline.
FISH FALLING: A new study found that fish biomass is “falling by 7.2% from as little as 0.1C of warming per decade”, noted the Guardian. While experts also pointed to the role of overfishing in marine life loss, marine ecologist and study lead author Dr Shahar Chaikin told the outlet: “Our research proves exactly what that biological cost [of warming] looks like underwater.”
TOO HOT FOR COFFEE: According to new analysis by Climate Central, countries where coffee beans are grown “are becoming too hot to cultivate them”, reported the Guardian. The world’s top five coffee-growing countries faced “57 additional days of coffee-harming heat” annually because of climate change, it added.

Spotlight

Nature talks inch forward

This week, Carbon Brief covers the latest round of negotiations under the UN Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), which occurred in Rome over 16-19 February.

The penultimate set of biodiversity negotiations before October’s Conference of the Parties ended in Rome last week, leaving plenty of unfinished business.

The CBD’s subsidiary body on implementation (SBI) met in the Italian capital for four days to discuss a range of issues, including biodiversity finance and reviewing progress towards the nature targets agreed under the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF).

However, many of the major sticking points – particularly around finance – will have to wait until later this summer, leaving some observers worried about the capacity for delegates to get through a packed agenda at COP17.

The SBI, along with the subsidiary body on scientific, technical and technological advice (SBSTTA) will both meet in Nairobi, Kenya, later this summer for a final round of talks before COP17 kicks off in Yerevan, Armenia, on 19 October.

Money talks

Finance for nature has long been a sticking point at negotiations under the CBD.

Discussions on a new fund for biodiversity derailed biodiversity talks in Cali, Colombia, in autumn 2024, requiring resumed talks a few months later.

Despite this, finance was barely on the agenda at the SBI meetings in Rome. Delegates discussed three studies on the relationship between debt sustainability and implementation of nature plans, but the more substantive talks are set to take place at the next SBI meeting in Nairobi.

Several parties “highlighted concerns with the imbalance of work” on finance between these SBI talks and the next ones, reported Earth Negotiations Bulletin (ENB).

Lim Li Ching, senior researcher at Third World Network, noted that tensions around finance permeated every aspect of the talks. She told Carbon Brief:

“If you’re talking about the gender plan of action – if there’s little or no financial resources provided to actually put it into practice and implement it, then it’s [just] paper, right? Same with the reporting requirements and obligations.”

Monitoring and reporting

Closely linked to the issue of finance is the obligations of parties to report on their progress towards the goals and targets of the GBF.

Parties do so through the submission of national reports.

Several parties at the talks pointed to a lack of timely funding for driving delays in their reporting, according to ENB.

A note released by the CBD Secretariat in December said that no parties had submitted their national reports yet; by the time of the SBI meetings, only the EU had. It further noted that just 58 parties had submitted their national biodiversity plans, which were initially meant to be published by COP16, in October 2024.

Linda Krueger, director of biodiversity and infrastructure policy at the environmental not-for-profit Nature Conservancy, told Carbon Brief that despite the sparse submissions, parties are “very focused on the national report preparation”. She added:

“Everybody wants to be able to show that we’re on the path and that there still is a pathway to getting to 2030 that’s positive and largely in the right direction.”

Watch, read, listen

NET LOSS: Nigeria’s marine life is being “threatened” by “ghost gear” – nets and other fishing equipment discarded in the ocean – said Dialogue Earth.

COMEBACK CAUSALITY: A Vox long-read looked at whether Costa Rica’s “payments for ecosystem services” programme helped the country turn a corner on deforestation.

HOMEGROWN GOALS: A Straits Times podcast discussed whether import-dependent Singapore can afford to shelve its goal to produce 30% of its food locally by 2030.

‘RUSTING’ RIVERS: The Financial Times took a closer look at a “strange new force blighting the [Arctic] landscape”: rivers turning rust-orange due to global warming.

New science

Lakes in the Congo Basin’s peatlands are releasing carbon that is thousands of years old | Nature Geoscience
Natural non-forest ecosystems – such as grasslands and marshlands – were converted for agriculture at four times the rate of land with tree cover between 2005 and 2020 | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Around one-quarter of global tree-cover loss over 2001-22 was driven by cropland expansion, pastures and forest plantations for commodity production | Nature Food