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暴雨、洪水和热浪等极端天气事件被称为中国的“新常态”。

今年四月的暴雨和洪水导致中国损失近120亿元人民币(16.5亿美元),灾害损失“为近10年同期最重”。六月,中国约有33条河流“超过警戒水位”,数十人丧生。广西桂林遭遇自1998年以来最大洪水。

不到一年前,北京气象部门在2023年7月的短短五天内记录了745毫米的降雨量,几乎是该市往年整月的降雨量。

北京周边的河北省在同一时间也出现了强降雨。2023年7月,临城县的降雨量超过1米,是其年平均降雨量的两倍。

2021年7月,河北的邻省河南出现了“千年一遇”的暴雨。

虽然中国已经出台了更多政策来改善其应急系统和基础设施,但日益增多的极端天气事件仍继续带来挑战。

在本篇Q&A中,Carbon Brief将探讨中国近期洪灾的原因、中国如何适应洪灾,以及是否需要未雨绸缪、重新审视其防洪系统。

近期洪灾背后的原因是什么?

近年来频繁发生的暴雨和洪水背后有各种因素。

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英国布里斯托尔大学地理科学学院名誉研究员奥利弗·温(Oliver Wing)博士告诉Carbon Brief:“总体而言,由于克劳修斯-克拉佩龙方程,我们预计气候变暖的世界将更加湿润。”

根据该方程,气温每升高1°C,空气中的湿度通常会增加约7%,这意味着气候变暖时降雨量可能会更大。

奥利弗·温指出,“对于日以下降雨量,我们看到的比例关系比该方程所显示的还要大。这使得地表水(更有可能)由于短时和高强度的局部降雨增加而在城市形成洪水”。

此外,他表示,“气候变暖正导致大多数地方的海平面上升,这意味着风暴潮造成破坏的基线更高”。

据《中国日报》引述中国气象局国家气候中心首席预报员郑志海称,自四月份以来,中国广东和广西等南部沿海省份频繁出现强降雨,其原因是“高于正常水平的温度”。

郑志海补充说,厄尔尼诺/南方涛动(在2023年中期进入厄尔尼诺升温阶段的自然气候周期)是部分原因,因为其提高了海面温度,并将大量水蒸气从南中国海和孟加拉湾引向中国南部。

宁波诺丁汉大学地理科学系系主任陈加信博士告诉Carbon Brief,今年4月广东的降雨模式与2023年9月6日至8日台风“海葵”过后的强降雨十分相似。

具体而言,强降雨是由来自东南亚和南亚季风模态中的低压湿气流,与来自菲律宾和西太平洋的另一个低压雨带碰撞产生的。

台风“海葵”给香港带来了140年来最严重的暴风雨,并在广东和福建两省造成了最严重的降雨。

陈加信表示,虽然在气象学意义上这些强烈暴风雨并不罕见,但由于全球变暖,其发生的频率越来越高。

四月是季风季的开始。大范围的暴风雨通常在四月平均发生三次。但是,今年中国仅在该月就遭受了至少八次区域性极端降雨事件侵袭,而且都是接连发生的。

在重庆和湖南等受影响地区,河流洪水的现象十分普遍。对于一般的河流洪水来说,确定原因可能更为复杂。

“有很多调节因素。在气候变暖的情况下,较干燥的土壤可能会使土地吸收更多降雨,从而减轻洪水带来的危害。许多洪水不是由强降雨造成,而是由融雪或落在饱和土壤上的低强度、长时间降雨造成的。 因此,单凭气候变暖导致降雨量增加不能合理推断出河流洪水也会增加。”奥利弗·温说。

陈加信表示,自然原因“当然”增加了湿度,“但人类引起的气候变化导致温室效应,造成海水温度上升,从而引起更多的风暴和低压雨带。这是事实。”

奥利弗·温同意,人类导致的气候变化的“热力学影响”增加了与风暴相关的降雨量。

但他补充道:“我们不甚了解的是,人为气候变化如何改变了气候系统的动态,以及这种变化在哪里和如何加剧或抑制了热力学响应。”

人类导致的气候变化起了什么作用?

许多研究发现,海面温度升高正在加剧高强度的连续极端降雨。

联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)的第六次评估报告(AR6)也指出,温室气体排放造成的人为气候变化导致海洋变暖,这也“很可能是已观测到的全球陆地强降水加剧的主要驱动因素”。

根据第六次评估报告,在全球相比工业化前升温1.5°C的情况下,东亚和中亚极端年最大日降雨量(Rx1)和五日累积降雨量(Rx5)预计将比1971年至2000年分别增加28%和15%。

该报告还指出,与之类似的是,在中国的城市群中,“全球从升温1.5°C增加到2°C可能会使非常潮湿日子的总降水强度增加1.8倍,最大五日降水量增加一倍”。

中国气象局中国气象科学研究院的陈阳教授告诉Carbon Brief,中国人为造成的强降雨的强度甚至超过预期。

“由于气候变暖导致大气湿度增加,潜热释放与潮湿风暴中的上升运动之间的反馈作用更强,因此人为造成的中国季风区强降水的加剧程度明显大于预期。”他解释说。

他补充说,与纬度相似的其他地区相比,这种反馈在中国东部尤为明显。

最近发表在《自然》上的一项研究还预计,由于气候变暖,中国的风暴活动将变得更加频繁和剧烈。研究显示,到21世纪末,中国东部沿海热带气旋的年平均发生频率预计将比现在增加16%。

A woman wearing a traditional costume during a hot day in Beijing, China.
在中国北京炙热的天气里,一名女子身着汉服。图片来源:Associated Press / Alamy Stock Photo

除了人类活动引发的气候变化之外,城市设计和建造不当,以及地下水开采、城市发展导致的建筑物重量、城市交通系统和采矿活动造成的沉降,也会加剧洪灾。

美国路易斯安那州立大学社会学系助理教授凯文·斯迈利(Kevin Smiley)博士告诉Carbon Brief:“气候变化正在加剧极端天气的严重程度和频率。由气候变化引起的额外降雨可能会导致原本只是建筑物的停车场在下雨天出现水坑,而现在洪水会漫过建筑物大门,造成数千美元的损失。”

“重要的是要记住:气候变化是人为的,所以这种风险的增加也有人为的根源。”

中国如何适应日益频繁的洪水?

中国修建了许多大型水利工程来防止洪涝灾害,例如2002年启动的从长江取水的南水北调工程。

在中国国务院最新公布的《国家水网建设规划纲要》中,在2035年前建成“国家水网”是未来防洪的“骨干”措施之一。

文件中的“骨干”工程还包括主要河流上的大型硬工程结构,如堤防、防洪闸和河道泄洪网络,以减轻洪水风险。

与此同时,发表在《海洋与海岸管理》(Ocean & Coastal Management)杂志上的一项研究发现,“基于自然的解决方案”在中国也变得流行起来。

沿海岸线和河口恢复和保护淡水沼泽、红树林和湿地,正在被用来为潮汐和风暴潮提供缓冲。它们包括上海的崇明岛湿地(长江三角洲)和深圳湾的福田和米埔湿地(珠江三角洲)。

规划文件中提出的另一个概念是“加快智慧发展”,利用互联网、数据和技术来监测和预防洪水。

首都北京已整合高清摄像机、望远镜、雷达图和卫星云图的数据,以提供实时灾害更新,从而改善应急响应时间。

中国东部港口城市宁波与电信公司合作,分析大数据并发布信息。

应急管理部表示,这些措施使2018年至2022年因自然灾害造成的死亡和失踪人数与2013年至2017年相比减少了54%。2023年,死亡人数继续下降,但与2018年至2022年水平相比,被毁建筑物数量和直接经济损失分别上升了97%和13%。

2015年,海绵城市的概念被写入住房和城乡建设部的政策文件。该计划在全国推广,武汉(1100万人口)、郑州(1000万人口)等30个主要城市被选为试点城市。

Aerial photo of Huangtaihu Lake, Qian'an City, China.
中国迁安市黄台湖。图片来源:Xinhua / Alamy Stock Photo

这些海绵城市旨在通过城市地区的“绿蓝设施”,如绿色屋顶、透水路面和雨水公园,收集、净化和再利用至少70%的洪水。整个系统旨在一次性解决城市供暖、淡水匮乏和洪水泛滥等问题。

中国也改进了其恢复过程。例如,在2021年台风“烟花”期间,宁波的洪灾受害者通过改进的在线文件系统,在一小时内就能获得经济补偿。

这些措施效果如何?

陈加信告诉 Carbon Brief,中国“在洪水和干旱灾害的准备、应对和恢复方面做得非常好”,这是两种最具破坏性的自然灾害。

“作为一个全球南方国家,”他将中国称为发展中国家,“中国用海绵城市和增强生态的解决方案应对气候变化,做得相当不错”。

然而,温认为,基于自然的解决方案,如海绵城市,可能会“很快饱和”,因此“它们的作用可能会被夸大”。他继续说:

“这些类型的干预措施对于相对频繁的低强度降雨最有效。在非常强烈、罕见的降雨(其概率在全球变暖的情况下迅速变化)期间,它们将很快不堪重负,造成最大的破坏和痛苦。”

2021 年,一场“历史罕见”的暴雨和洪水影响了海绵城市郑州 1400 多万人,造成 398 人死亡,凸显了海绵城市在气候变化面前的局限性。

《自然》杂志的研究称,海绵城市的设计只能承受 30 年一遇的降雨事件。陈加信说,除此之外,它还会造成一种虚假的安全感。它鼓励更多人迁往高风险地区,导致这些地区的人口和资产增加,而这些聚集地的保护需求也应声而涨,形成一种被称为“堤坝效应”的循环。

堤坝效应是一种悖论:修建防洪堤坝会导致人们对洪水风险的认知降低,业主更有可能投资于自己的房产,从而增加堤坝决口时的潜在损失。

根据《自然》杂志的论文,洪水的影响是人口稠密的黄河三角洲和珠江流域面临的一个关键挑战,这两个地区都面临着很高的洪水风险。

斯迈利说:“当社会的脆弱性与灾害交织在一起时,风险就会显现出来。脆弱性是社会性的,社会脆弱性越大,洪水的影响就越大……社会的脆弱性还是不公平的。一个有一定财富和良好保险的家庭,比一个靠薪水度日的家庭能更快、更成功地从洪水中恢复过来。”

中国政府通过特别政府债券拨款超过一万亿元人民币(1380 亿美元),用于支持弱势公民和今年 3 月遭受自然灾害的地区重建。据官方媒体《环球时报》报道,超过一半的资金将用于“防洪等水利工程建设”。

但过去,财政支持的提供一直受到质疑。全球再保险公司慕尼黑再保险(Munich Re)称,2023 年台风杜苏芮袭击中国时,在总计约 250 亿美元的损失中,只有 20 亿美元得到了承保。

此外,2015 年至 2018 年间,这些海绵城市的建设已经花费了中国 15-18 亿元人民币(2.1-2.5 亿美元)。维护费用将使这笔费用更高。

《自然》杂志的作者建议政府应致力于将分散的“灰色基础设施”(排水沟、管道和泵站等建筑结构)整合到现有的绿色蓝色设施中,但不应仅仅依赖工程基础设施。

中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究所研究员舒乐乐博士告诉《知识分子》杂志:“仅靠传统的工程方法无法减轻目前强降雨的影响”。

“每次下大雨,它造成的损失都会成为头条新闻,主要是因为城市里住着太多人,”舒补充道。

洪水易发地区的政府部门合作不当也导致灾害管理缺乏统一调配。

《自然》杂志的研究补充说,就长江和珠江三角洲而言,其缺乏一个覆盖全区的、且可以“把地划分土和投资融合起来的水文系统”。

中国社会科学院生态文明研究所研究员郑艳博士在 2023 年北京洪水过后指出,政府机构往往只顾自己的管辖范围,只想着转移问题,迅速疏导洪水,这给下游地区的城市带来了压力。

斯迈利说:“洪水不会在意人为划定的市、区或省的边界。一个地方有效的城市设计可能会减轻那里的洪水风险,但会间接增加其他地方的风险。以正义为中心、集体思考(统一筹划)可以提供一个本地化的解决方案来帮助所有人有效恢复,而不是加剧不平等。”

中国可以从其他城市学到什么?

洪水是世界各地城市都面临的挑战,中国因此可以借鉴大量的想法和技术。

《自然》杂志的论文建议,长江三角洲和珠江三角洲可以向恒河-布拉马普特拉河-梅格纳河三角洲和湄公河三角洲学习,“通过利用和调整因气候变化和人类活动而迅速变化的三角洲潜在动态,改善其对沉降和侵蚀等区域挑战的应对”。

该论文还提倡建设一个“积极主动、具有前瞻性、具有足够能力限制洪水破坏性影响并及时恢复灾前状态”的弹性社会。

鹿特丹是一座四面环水、人口 60 万的荷兰三角洲城市。鹿特丹建造了蓄水设施,例如具有蓄水功能、面积相当于四个奥林匹克游泳池的地下停车场, 且安装了绿色屋顶和外墙来吸收雨水。

日本在东京郊区埼玉县在地下建造了一个复杂的混凝土隧道和拱顶网络。这个网络位于大约地下 14 层,可容纳的雨水可以装满 1,000 多个奥运会标准泳池。

这两个城市的地下洪水转移设施经常被用作气候变化前沿城市可行的防洪系统的典范。

香港在跑马地马场的下方也有一个类似的地下雨水储存系统,旨在抵御 50 年一遇的洪水事件。

然而,陈加信表示,防洪措施的有效性难以横向比较,因为每个城市的地理、人口、密度和地形都非常不同。

他告诉 Carbon Brief:“在我看来,中国的特大城市应该考虑利用地下空间来储存超强暴雨突然排放的极端雨水……东京和鹿特丹利用地下空间的做法就相当明智。”

The post Q&A:中国如何适应日益频繁的洪灾 appeared first on Carbon Brief.

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Carbon Brief Quiz 2026: Picture Round 1 and 2

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All answers will need to be submitted via the Google form by the end of the half-time break

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Carbon Brief Quiz 2026: Picture Round 1 and 2

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Landmark deal to share Chile’s lithium windfall fractures Indigenous communities

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Rudecindo Espíndola’s family has been growing corn, figs and other crops for generations in the Soncor Valley in northern Chile, an oasis of green orchards in one of the driest places on Earth the Atacama desert.

Perched nearly 2,500 metres above sea level, his village, Toconao, means “lost corner” in the Kunza language of the Indigenous people who have lived and farmed the land in this remote spot for millennia.

“Our deep connection to this place is based on what we have inherited from our ancestors: our culture, our language,” said Espíndola, a member of a local research team that found evidence that people have inhabited the desert for more than 12,000 years.

This distant outpost is at the heart of the global rush for lithium, a silvery-white metal used to make batteries for electric vehicles (EV) and renewable energy storage that are vital to the world’s clean energy transition. The Atacama salt flat is home to about 25% of the world’s known lithium reserves, turning Chile into the world’s second-largest lithium producer after Australia.

For decades, the Atacama’s Indigenous Lickanantay people have protested against the expansion of the lithium industry, warning that the large evaporation ponds used to extract lithium from the brine beneath the salt flats are depleting scarce and sacred water supplies and destroying fragile desert ecosystems.

Espíndola joined the protests, fearing that competition for water could pose an existential threat to his community.

But last year, he was among dozens of Indigenous representatives who sat across the table from executives representing two Chilean mining giants to hammer out a governance model that gives Indigenous communities living close to lithium sites a bigger say over operations, and a greater share of the economic benefits.

A man wearing a black T-shirt and a hat stands in front of a tree
Rudecindo Espíndola stands in a green oasis near the village of Toconao in the Atacama desert (Photo: Francisco Parra)

A pioneering deal

The agreement is part of a landmark deal between state-owned copper miner Codelco and lithium producer the Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile (SQM) to extract lithium from the salt flats until 2060 through a joint venture called NovaAndino Litio.

The governance model that promises people living in Toconao and other villages around the salt flats millions of dollars in benefits and greater environmental oversight is the first of its kind in mineral-rich Chile, and has been hailed by industry experts as the start of a potential model for more responsible mining for energy transition metals.

NovaAndino told Climate Home News the negotiations with local communities represented an “unprecedented process that has allowed us to incorporate the territory’s vision early in the project’s design” and creates “a system of permanent engagement” with local communities.

The company added it will contribute to sustainable development in the area and help “the safeguarding of [the Lickanantay people’s] culture and environmental values”.

    For mining companies, such agreements could help reduce social conflicts and protests, which have delayed and stalled extraction in other parts of South America’s lithium-rich region, known as the lithium triangle.

    “Argentina and Bolivia could learn a lot from what we’re doing [here],” said Rodrigo Guerrero, a researcher at the Santiago-based Espacio Público think-tank, adding that adopting participatory frameworks early on could prevent them from “going through the entire cycle of disputes” that Chile has experienced.

    Justice at last?

    As part of the governance deal, NovaAndino has pledged to adopt technologies that will reduce water use and mitigate the environmental impacts of lithium extraction.

    It has also committed to hold more than 100 annual meetings with community representatives to build a “good faith” relationship, and an Indigenous Advisory Council will meet twice a year with the company’s sustainability committee to discuss its environmental strategy, company sources said. The meetings are due to begin next month.

    To oversee the agreement’s implementation, an assembly – composed of representatives from all 25 signatory communities – will track the project’s progress. In addition, NovaAndino will hold one-on-one meetings with each community to address issues such as the hiring of local people and the protection of Indigenous employees.

    A flamingo at the Chaxa Lagoon in the Atacama salt flat (Photo: REUTERS/Cristian Rudolffi)

    Espíndola said the deal, while far from perfect, was an important step forward.

    “Previously, Indigenous participation was ambiguous. Now we talk about participation at [every] hierarchical level of this process, a very strong empowerment for Indigenous communities,” said Espíndola, adding that it did not give local communities everything they had asked for. For instance, they will not hold veto power over NovaAndino’s decisions or have a formal shareholder role.

    But after years of conflict with mining companies, a form of “participatory justice is being done”, he said.

    Not everyone is convinced that the accord, pushed by Chile’s former leftist government, marks progress, however.

    “Not in our name”

    The negotiations have caused deep divisions among the Lickanantay, some of whom say greater engagement with mining companies will not stop irreparable damage to the salt flats on which their traditional way of life depends. Others fear the promise of more money will further erode community bonds.

    In January 2024, Indigenous communities from five villages closest to the mining operations, including Toconao, blocked the main access roads to the lithium extraction sites. They said the Council of Atacameño Peoples, which represents 18 Lickanantay communities and was leading discussions with the company, no longer spoke for them.

    Official transcripts of consultations on the extension of the lithium contracts and how to share the promised benefits reveal deep divisions. Tensions peaked when communities around the mining operations clashed over how to distribute the multimillion-dollar windfall, with villages closest to the mining sites demanding the largest share.

    Eventually, separate deals establishing a new governance framework over mining activities were reached between Codelco and SQM with 25 local communities, including a specific agreement for the five villages closest to the extraction sites.

    Codelco’s chairman Maximo Pacheco (Photo: REUTERS/Rodrigo Garrido)

    The division caused by the separate deal for the five villages “will cause historic damage” to the unity of the Atacama desert’s Indigenous peoples, said Hugo Flores, president of the Council of Atacameño Associations, a separate group representing farmers, herders and local workers who oppose the mining expansion.

    Sonia Ramos, 83, a renowned Lickanantay healer and well-known anti-mining activist, lamented the fracturing of social bonds over money, and for the sake of meeting government objectives.

    “There is fragmentation among the communities themselves. Everything has transformed into disequilibrium,” said the 83-year-old.

    “[NovaAndino] supposedly has economic significance for the country, but for us, it is the opposite,” she said.

    The company told Climate Home News it has “acted consistently” to promote “transparent, voluntary, and good-faith dialogue with the communities in the territory, recognising their diversity and autonomy, and always respecting their timelines and forms of participation”.

    A one-off deal or a model for others?

    The NovaAndino joint venture is a pillar of Chile’s strategy to double lithium production by 2031 and consolidate the copper-producing nation’s role in the clean energy transition as demand for battery minerals accelerates.

    Chile’s new far-right president, José Antonio Kast, who was sworn in last week, promised to respect the lithium contracts signed by his predecessor’s administration – including the governance model.

    Still, some experts say the splits over the new model highlight the need for legislation that mandates direct engagement and minimum community benefits for all large mining projects.

    “In the past, this has lent itself to clientelism, communities who negotiate best or arrive first get the better deal,” said Pedro Zapata, a programme officer in Chile for the Natural Resource Governance Institute.

    “This can be to the detriment of other communities with less strength. We cannot have first- and second-class citizens subject to the same industry,” he added.

    The government is already negotiating two more public-private partnerships to extract lithium with mining giant Rio Tinto, which it said would include a framework to engage with Indigenous communities and share some of the revenues. The details will need to be negotiated between local people, the government and the company.

    Sharing the benefits of mining

    Under the deal in the Atacama, NovaAndino will run SQM’s current lithium concessions until they expire in 2030 before seeking new permits to expand mining in the region under a vast project known as “Salar Futuro” – a process which will require further mandatory consultations with communities.

    Besides the participatory mechanism, the new agreement promises more money than ever before for salt flat communities.

    A stone arch welcomes visitors to the village of Peine, one of the closest settlements to lithium mining sites in the Atacama salt flat (Photo: REUTERS/Cristian Rudolffi)

    Depending on the global price of lithium and their proximity to the mining operations, Indigenous communities could collectively receive roughly $30 million annually in funding – about double what SQM currently disburses under existing contracts.

    When taking into account the company’s payments to local and regional authorities, contributions could reach $150 million annually, according to the government.

    To access these resources, each community will need to submit a pipeline of projects they would like funding for under a complex arrangement that includes five separate financial streams:

    • A general investment fund will distribute funding based on each village’s size and proximity to the mining sites
    • A development fund will support projects specifically in the five communities closest to the extraction sites
    • Contributions to farmers and livestock associations
    • Contributions to local governments
    • A groundbreaking “intergenerational fund” held in trust for the Lickanantay until 2060

    For many isolated communities in the Atacama desert, financial contributions from mining firms have funded essential public services, such as healthcare and facilities like football pitches and swimming pools.

    In the past, communities have used some of the benefits they received from mining to build their own environmental monitoring units, hiring teams of hydrogeologists and lawyers to scrutinise miners’ activities.

    Espíndola said the new model could pave the way for more ambitious development projects such as water treatment plants and community solar energy projects.

    A man in a white shirt and glasses stands in front of a stone wall
    Sergio Cubillos, president of the Peine community, was one of the Indigenous representatives in the negotiations with Codelco and SQM (Photo credit: Formando Rutas/ Daniela Carvajal)

    Competition for water

    The depletion of water resources is one of local people’s biggest environmental concerns.

    To extract lithium from the salt flats, miners pump lithium-rich brine accumulated over millions of years in underground reservoirs into gigantic pools, where the water is left to evaporate under the sun and leaves behind lithium carbonate.

    One study has shown that the practice is causing the salt flat to sink by up to two centimetres a year. SQM recently said its current operations consume approximately 11,500 to 12,500 litres of industrial freshwater for every metric ton of lithium produced.

    NovaAndino has committed to significantly reduce the company’s water use by returning at least 30% of the water it extracts from the brine and eliminating the use of all freshwater in its operations within five years of obtaining an environmental permit.

      Cristina Dorador, a microbiologist at the University of Antofagasta, told Climate Home News that reinjecting the water underground is untested at a large scale and could impact the chemical composition of the salt flats.

      Continuing to extract lithium from the flats until 2060 could be the “final blow” for this fragile ecosystem, she said.

      Asked to comment on such concerns, NovaAndino said any new technology will be “subject to the highest regulatory standards”, and pledged to ensure transparency through “an updated monitoring system with the participation of Indigenous communities”.

      High price for hard-won gains

      For the five communities living on the doorstep of the lithium pools, one of the biggest gains is being granted physical access to the mining sites to monitor the lithium extraction and its impact on the salt flats.

      That is a first and will strengthen communities’ ability to call out environmental harms, said Sergio Cubillos, the community president of Peine, the village closest to the evaporation ponds. It could also give them the means to seek remediation through the courts if necessary, Espíndola said.

      Gaining such rights represents long-overdue progress, Cubillos said, but it has come at a high price for the Lickanantay people.

      “Communities receiving money today is what has ultimately led to this division, because we haven’t been able to figure out what we want, how we want it, and how we envision our future as a people,” he said.

      Main image: A truck loads concentrated brine at SQM’s lithium mine at the Atacama salt flat in Chile (Photo: REUTERS/Ivan Alvarado)

      The post Landmark deal to share Chile’s lithium windfall fractures Indigenous communities appeared first on Climate Home News.

      Landmark deal to share Chile’s lithium windfall fractures Indigenous communities

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      Roadmap launched to restart deadlocked UN plastics treaty talks

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      Diplomats will hold a series of informal meetings this year in a bid to revive stalled talks over a global treaty to curb plastic pollution, before aiming to reconvene for the next round of official negotiations at the end of 2026 or early 2027.

      Hoping to find a long-awaited breakthrough in the deeply divided UN process, the chair of the talks, Chilean ambassador Julio Cordano, released a roadmap on Monday to inject momentum into the discussions after negotiations collapsed at a chaotic session in Geneva last August.

      Cordano wrote in a letter that countries would meet in Nairobi from June 30 to July 3 for informal discussions to review all the components of the negotiations, including thorny issues such as efforts to limit soaring plastic production.

        The gathering should result in the drafting of a new document laying the foundations of a future treaty text with options on elements with divergent views, but “no surprises” such as new ideas or compromise proposals. This plan aims to address the fact that countries left Geneva without a draft text to work on – something Cordano called a “significant limitation” in his letter.

        “Predictable pathway”

        The meeting in the Kenyan capital will follow a series of virtual consultations every four to six weeks, where heads of country delegations will exchange views on specific topics. A second in-person meeting aimed at finding solutions might take place in early October, depending on the availability of funding.

        Cordano said the roadmap should offer “a predictable pathway” in the lead-up to the next formal negotiating session, which is expected to take place over 10 days at the end of 2026 or early 2027. A host country has yet to be selected, but Climate Home News understands that Brazil, Azerbaijan or Kenya – the home of the UN Environment Programme – have been put forward as options.

        Countries have twice failed to agree on a global plastics treaty at what were meant to be final rounds of negotiations in December 2024 and August 2025.

        Divisions on plastic production

        One of the most divisive elements of the discussions remains what the pact should do about plastic production, which, according to the UN, is set to triple by 2060 without intervention.

        A majority, which includes most European, Latin American, African and Pacific island nations, wants to limit the manufacturing of plastic to “sustainable levels”. But large fossil fuel and petrochemical producers, led by Saudi Arabia, the United States, Russia and India, say the treaty should only focus on managing plastic waste.

        As nearly all plastic is made from planet-heating oil, gas and coal, the sector’s trajectory will have a significant impact on global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

        Countries still far apart

        After an eight-month hiatus, informal discussions restarted in early March at an informal meeting of about 20 countries hosted by Japan.

        A participant told Climate Home News that, while the gathering had been helpful to test ideas, progress remained “challenging”, with national stances largely unchanged.

        The source added that countries would need to achieve a significant shift in positions in the coming months to make reconvening formal negotiations worthwhile.

        Deep divisions persist as plastics treaty talks restart at informal meeting

        Jacob Kean-Hammerson, global plastics policy lead at Greenpeace USA, said the new roadmap offers an opportunity for countries to “defend and protect the most critical provisions on the table”.

        He said that the document expected after the Nairobi meeting “must include and revisit proposals backed by a large number of countries, especially on plastic production, that have previously been disregarded”.

        “These measures are essential to addressing the crisis at its source and must be reinstated as a key part of the negotiations,” he added.

        The post Roadmap launched to restart deadlocked UN plastics treaty talks appeared first on Climate Home News.

        Roadmap launched to restart deadlocked UN plastics treaty talks

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