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Nickel Market is Shifting Big Time, Here are The Major Changes to Know

Nickel, a key component in electric vehicle (EV) batteries and stainless steel, is experiencing significant changes in supply dynamics and pricing. Recent activities by Nickel Industries and market reactions to global economic conditions paint a picture of both challenges and opportunities in the nickel sector.

Nickel Industries Strategic Moves in Indonesia

Nickel Industries, an Australian company, could become one of the largest nickel resource holders in the world with its strategic acquisitions in Indonesia. 

In August 2024, the company signed agreements to purchase the Sampala project and secured a 51% stake in the Siduarsi project. These moves come amid a severe nickel ore shortage in Indonesia. This has led to a staggering 45% rise in local nickel prices since late 2023. 

According to Justin Werner, Managing Director of Nickel Industries, this acquisition is crucial for mitigating the impact of ore shortages and the high prices associated with them.

The Sampala project boasts a significant resource of 2.3 million metric tons of contained nickel metal, along with 200,000 metric tons of cobalt. Werner expects this resource to expand dramatically, potentially reaching up to 10 million metric tons of nickel metal. Once that happens, it will be among the top five known nickel resources globally. 

With plans to commence shipping ore by the end of 2025, Nickel Industries aims to ensure a self-sufficient ore supply for its operations in the Morowali Industrial Park.

In addition, the Siduarsi project has revealed an initial resource of 52 million dry metric tons at a promising nickel grade of 1.1%. This resource is anticipated to grow, and there are projections that the total contained nickel could double. Nickel Industries’ strong position in Indonesia positions it as a key player in the global nickel market.

Global Price Shifts and Market Impact 

While Nickel Industries is making headlines with its acquisitions, broader market trends are affecting nickel prices globally. 

  • The London Metal Exchange (LME) recently reported that nickel prices fell to $15,873 per metric ton by the end of October 2024. This decline followed a brief surge to a four-month high of $18,153 per ton earlier in the month. 

The drop was largely attributed to a lack of investor enthusiasm following China’s recent stimulus measures, which did not meet expectations for more aggressive economic support.

China is the world’s largest consumer of industrial metals, and its economic health is vital for nickel prices. After the Chinese central bank announced its stimulus package on September 24, 2024, investor confidence briefly increased, leading to higher nickel prices. 

However, as details of the package emerged and manufacturing activity in China remained weak, investor sentiment shifted, causing prices to retreat.

Data from S&P Global Commodity Insights maps in detail major market events impacting LME 3M nickel prices shown below.

nickel prices LME 3M drops

Adding to this volatility, stocks of Russia-origin nickel in LME warehouses increased significantly, rising 19.6% month over month, per S&P Global analysis. 

This surge in inventory occurs despite an LME ban on new deliveries from Russia in response to geopolitical tensions. As a result, a mix of increased nickel stocks and reduced investor confidence has put downward pressure on LME nickel prices.

Indonesia’s Production Strategy in Focus

Indonesia remains a pivotal player in the global nickel landscape. The country’s energy and mineral resources minister indicated that the government plans to regulate nickel ore production to maintain a balance between supply and demand. 

Such strategy is particularly important given the challenges posed by a new domestic mining approval system that has led some producers to import nickel ore from the Philippines, the second-largest nickel producer.

Interestingly, despite the tight supply situation, Indonesia’s primary nickel output increased by 14.5% year-over-year during the first eight months of 2024. The largest nickel producer is also trying to shift away from China-based ownership to qualify for the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act of 2022.

Indonesia primary nickel output growth 2024

This trend highlights the country’s potential to drive global nickel production growth. As Indonesia continues to manage its production levels carefully, it can maintain its status as a leading supplier in the nickel market.

How Do Future Nickel Prices Look Like?

Looking ahead, S&P Global analysts have revised their price forecasts for nickel. Following the October price fluctuations, the forecast for the LME nickel price in the December quarter has been upgraded to $16,583 per ton. This reflects a decline compared to the previous year.

Nevertheless, ongoing discussions in China about issuing significant amounts of debt to stimulate growth could improve investor sentiment and support nickel prices in the near future.

Projections show a surplus in the global primary nickel output over the next four years, growing annually at almost 6%. Yet, Indonesia’s evolving mining policies and production strategies introduce uncertainties that could affect this outlook. 

Global primary nickel output forecast
Chart from S&P Global Commodity Insights

The recent developments in both Nickel Industries and the broader nickel market underscore the dynamic nature of this essential metal industry. The future of nickel will depend not only on local production strategies in Indonesia but also on global economic conditions and investor confidence.

The post Nickel Market is Changing Big Time: Is a Supply-Demand Shift Underway? appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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Carbon Footprint

The Strategic Case for Nature-Based Carbon Investments

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Nature-based carbon investments deserve consideration when they address a specific business dependency and produce outcomes you can measure. Imagine Moonbucks, a global coffee roaster planning next season’s espresso blend. It is considering natural Grade 4 coffee from Jimma, in southwestern Oromia, Ethiopia. Its sourcing decisions affect the roasting schedule and the cash tied up in coffee purchases. Moonbucks needs to understand which measures could protect that supply, what they would cost and how it would judge the results.

1. Define the sourcing problem before choosing a project

Moonbucks needs a dependable component for its espresso blend. Its procurement team wants continuity of volume and an agreed cup profile. Replacing a shipment at short notice could require new sample approval and changes to the blend, and given the schedules for cultivation, processing, and freight delivery, is practically impossible. Moonbucks needs to get this right, and its initial concern is inconsistent deliveries. It commissions an assessment of the supplying farms and post-harvest chain. The questions cover land condition, harvest availability and whether drying or storage problems are affecting saleable lots.

This distinction changes the investment brief. A tree-planting proposal cannot be assumed to fix drying problems. Better storage cannot restore eroded land. The team must establish which problem exists before selecting the response.

CCC’s guide to finding nature-based solutions in your supply chain explains where to look. Here, the next task is to turn a broad concern into a testable proposal.

2. Develop nature-based carbon investments around the actual supply chain

The assessment would trace Moonbucks’ purchases back through the exporter and supplying producer groups. Which farms supply the contracted lots? Who controls land-management decisions? How long does the buyer expect to maintain the purchasing relationship?

Furthermore, Jimma natural Grade 4 cannot be treated as interchangeable with every Ethiopian coffee. Moonbucks would need to test any substitute against its own blend and quality requirements.

Suppose Moonbucks’ assessment identifies an opportunity to maintain shade trees and restore vegetation along exposed streambanks. The IPCC describes agroforestry as a way to store carbon in vegetation and soil, with potential benefits for erosion control and water quality.1 Moonbucks would need local advice on species, growing conditions and maintenance before deciding how these measures fit its sourcing plan.

The proposal now has a defined sourcing connection and a candidate intervention. The next steps are to test its effect on production, assess carbon eligibility and build the financial case.

3. Compare the proposal with other ways to protect supply

WBCSD’s Nature-based Solutions Blueprint recommends comparing nature-based options with other responses across their benefits and costs.2 For Moonbucks, that means evaluating the landscape proposal alongside drying improvements, storage controls and alternative sourcing arrangements.

The product’s natural-process designation matters. Moonbucks should examine the drying and dry-milling chain alongside land conditions. Its team would check storage practices, contamination risks and incoming-lot quality to see whether problems arise before or after the coffee leaves the farms.

The revised proposal might combine land stewardship with separate post-harvest controls. Each component needs its own purpose and budget. A sustainability label should not obscure which activity is expected to solve which problem.

The project develops as the evidence improves. Its scope should follow the diagnosis rather than preserve the first idea unchanged.

4. Establish what the carbon outcome could count toward

Moonbucks’ sustainability team now tests the proposed carbon case separately from the sourcing case. Is the objective a measurable change in Moonbucks’ value-chain emissions, verified credits for separate voluntary use, or distinct outcomes under carefully defined arrangements?

Scope 3 covers value-chain emissions. A purchasing relationship alone does not prove that a farm intervention can be included in Moonbucks’ inventory. The team needs an applicable accounting method, defensible boundaries and evidence supporting attribution.

SBTi’s FLAG Guidance (forest, land and agriculture), version 1.2, says purchased credits used as offsets cannot meet near-term FLAG or energy and industry targets. Eligible land-based removals are subject to accounting requirements.3 Moonbucks needs to test its proposal against those rules before including an outcome in its targets.

For Moonbucks’ Jimma proposal, maintaining existing trees and establishing new vegetation could involve different carbon questions. Specialists must examine the baseline and additionality, meaning what changes because the project proceeds. They must also assess measurement and the risk that stored carbon is lost. CCC’s MRV and additionality article introduces those tests.

Until that work is complete, Moonbucks should not budget an assumed Scope 3 reduction or credit-sale receipt. Direct emissions reductions remain the priority.

5. Build a financial case that survives weaker assumptions

Moonbucks’ finance team would now build a multi-year budget. UNEP’s State of Finance for Nature 2023 compares current finance with the investment needed to meet climate, biodiversity and land-restoration goals.4 The company would cost its proposed activities, farmer participation and ongoing monitoring. Verification, where required, is a separate expense. Maintenance and responsibility for replacing failed plantings must remain visible after the initial establishment budget ends.

Operational benefits need equally careful treatment. If fewer rejected lots reduce emergency purchasing, count that saving once. Do not add “supply resilience” as another financial benefit when it represents the same avoided cost.

Moonbucks should compare a base case with slower benefits, higher implementation costs and no carbon revenue. It should also distinguish production outcomes from quality and shipment outcomes. A single good harvest would not prove that the landscape intervention caused better delivery performance.

A project can remain worth funding even when its carbon case needs more work. That decision must rest on the operational evidence and the company’s objectives, without unsupported environmental claims.

6. Fund a pilot with a clear expansion decision

Moonbucks’ first approval would fund a bounded pilot, rather than commit the entire sourcing program. Before spending, Moonbucks would agree on participating farms, responsibilities and the evidence needed at review.

Its scorecard could track farmer participation, implementation costs and plant survival, alongside accepted coffee volumes and lot-quality results. Carbon measurements would follow the selected method. Farm-level traceability must connect the intervention to the actual sourcing relationship.

Suppose Moonbucks’ review later finds that storage changes explain most quality improvements, while the land measures need longer observation. Those findings would shape the next decision: expand the proven component, adjust the landscape work or pause further spending. They would not justify crediting all improvements to tree planting.

This gives nature-based carbon investments a practical place in a multi-year strategy. Funding increases as the evidence supports it, and the project can change direction before a larger commitment.

Discuss a sourcing opportunity with CCC

Carbon Credit Capital’s nature-based supply-chain investment service uses its Dual-Value Model to examine supply-chain economics alongside potential sustainability outcomes.

Schedule a consultation to discuss your sourcing exposure and the questions to resolve before allocating capital.

Sources

  1. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change, Chapter 7, Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses, section 7.4.3.3 (Agroforestry).
  2. World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD), Nature-based Solutions Blueprint, 5 June 2024.
  3. Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi), Forest, Land and Agriculture Science-Based Target-Setting Guidance, version 1.2, March 2026, section 3.1.4, pp. 37–38.
  4. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), State of Finance for Nature 2023, 2023.
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Carbon Footprint

How to buy plastic credits, and what to check before you do

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A plastic credit funds the collection of plastic waste in places where no formal system exists to collect it. Each credit represents a measured, independently audited quantity of plastic taken out of the environment or returned to use, tracked on a public registry.

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Carbon Footprint

EU carbon credit claims after 27 September 2026

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EU carbon credit claims changed on 27 September 2026, the day the Directive (EU) 2024/825 began to apply across the European Union. The change is narrow. It changes how a company can talk about the credits it buys. A product can no longer be called neutral on the strength of compensation alone; however, every specific, evidenced statement about what a company measured, reduced, and funded stays fully available.

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