Lithium has become one of the most critical resources for the global energy transition. As demand for electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable energy storage grows, countries are racing to secure stable supplies of this lightweight metal.
In the United States, the Department of Energy (DOE) has just announced a new era for lithium production. At the same time, investor interest in lithium has surged, reflected by the strong monthly close of the Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF (LIT). These changes show that the lithium market is reaching an important stage. This stage is shaped by policy, technology, and financial momentum.
U.S. DOE Takes a Stake in Lithium Americas
The DOE recently confirmed it will take equity stakes in Lithium Americas and its Thacker Pass mine in Nevada. This move marks the first time the U.S. government has directly invested in a lithium project rather than providing loans or guarantees.
Thacker Pass is one of the biggest lithium deposits in North America. It could greatly decrease U.S. dependence on foreign sources.
Becoming a shareholder sends a clear message: lithium production is vital for both business and national security. China controls over 60% of global lithium refining. So, the U.S. wants to boost its own supply chains.
The government aims to support projects that ensure long-term stability. The government’s role lowers risk for private investors. This could lead to more funding and partnerships.
Thacker Pass: America’s White Gold Standard
Thacker Pass, located in northern Nevada, is set to produce lithium carbonate. This will provide enough for batteries in up to one million EVs each year when fully operational. Construction is underway, and production is expected later this decade. The mine could make the U.S. one of the top four global producers, alongside Chile and Australia.

Thacker Pass has not been without controversy, facing environmental opposition and legal challenges. However, federal and state support has kept the project moving forward. If successful, it could reshape the balance of supply in the Western Hemisphere and reduce reliance on imports from Asia.
A Global Tug-of-War for Lithium Supply
While the U.S. builds its domestic base, other regions are also reconfiguring supply chains.
- Chile and Argentina hold about 60% of the world’s lithium reserves. They are rethinking their royalty rules and partnerships to bring in more foreign investment.
- Australia, currently the largest producer, continues to expand mining output but faces bottlenecks in refining. Much of its raw spodumene is shipped to China for processing.
- China, a leader in refining and cathode production, is boosting investments in Africa and South America. This helps it maintain its top position.
This global tug-of-war reflects a broader reality: lithium is not only an industrial commodity but also a strategic resource. Countries are ensuring access by using different methods. They invest directly, make long-term supply agreements, and innovate with technology.
EVs and Energy Storage: The Demand Engine
Lithium demand will likely surge in the next ten years. This rise is due to more people using EVs and increasing grid-scale energy storage. BloombergNEF forecasts lithium-ion battery demand reaching multiple terawatt-hours annually by 2035. EVs will likely make up over 70% of this total.

In the U.S., new federal incentives under the Inflation Reduction Act are pushing automakers to source more domestically produced materials. Ford, General Motors, and Tesla have all made deals for lithium. They expect the market to get tighter.
Meanwhile, utilities are using large battery storage systems. These help balance renewable energy from sources like wind and solar. This shift is increasing demand even more.
New Frontiers: Direct Extraction and Recycling
Meeting future demand will not only depend on mining new deposits but also on deploying new technologies. Direct lithium extraction (DLE) methods can boost recovery rates. They also lower environmental impact compared to old evaporation ponds. Companies in the U.S. and South America are piloting these systems, and if successful, DLE could accelerate supply growth.
Recycling also represents a growing opportunity. As the first wave of EV batteries reaches the end of life, recycling firms are stepping in to recover valuable metals. This secondary supply could become increasingly important in balancing markets and reducing dependence on mining.
Price Trends and Market Volatility
Lithium prices have seen dramatic swings in recent years. After hitting record highs in 2022, prices corrected in 2023 and 2024 as supply temporarily outpaced demand.
However, analysts warn that volatility is likely to persist. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence says lithium carbonate prices steadied in 2025. However, rising demand from EV makers could trigger another price surge in the late 2020s.

This volatility underscores the challenges for both producers and investors. Companies should balance long-term supply contracts with the risk of falling prices. Investors need to consider cyclical downturns alongside the bigger growth picture.
LIT ETF’s Rally Sparks Renewed Optimism
One sign of renewed optimism in the sector is the recent performance of the Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF (LIT). The ETF, which tracks a broad portfolio of lithium miners, battery producers, and EV companies, just posted its strongest monthly close in over a year, as seen in the Katusa Research chart below.

This performance reflects investor belief that the worst of the price downturn may be over and that long-term fundamentals remain intact. Stronger government backing, such as the DOE’s investment, adds further support to the outlook.
For many investors, ETFs like LIT offer diversified exposure to a sector known for both opportunity and volatility.
Investment Playbook: Choosing Exposure Wisely
For investors, the lithium sector presents both risks and rewards. On one hand, rising demand for EVs and energy storage supports a strong long-term growth story. On the other hand, price volatility, environmental concerns, and geopolitical risks remain significant.
Investors generally face three approaches:
- Major producers like Albemarle, SQM, and Ganfeng provide scale and stability.
- Emerging juniors, such as Lithium Americas, offer high growth potential but higher risks.
- ETFs like LIT provide diversified exposure, spreading risk across multiple companies and regions.
Each option carries different risk-reward profiles, making diversification a key strategy.
A Defining Decade for Lithium
The lithium industry is entering a transformative period. The DOE’s investment in Thacker Pass shows how vital it is to secure supply chains. Moreover, the strong close of the LIT ETF reflects rising investor confidence in this sector’s future. Globally, shifts in supply, demand, and technology are reshaping the landscape.
As EV adoption accelerates and renewable energy expands, lithium will remain a cornerstone of the energy transition. For governments, it is a matter of security and independence. For companies, it is a race to innovate and scale. And for investors, it represents both opportunity and volatility.
The next decade will likely define how lithium shapes the clean energy future, making today’s developments critical signals of what lies ahead.
- FURTHER READING: U.S. Lithium Push: How Washington’s Bet on Lithium Americas Could Reshape the Global Market
The post Lithium’s Turning Point: DOE Investment in LAC’s Thacker Pass and the LIT ETF Rally appeared first on Carbon Credits.
Carbon Footprint
How to improve Scope 3 data accuracy for CSRD
For most businesses, the emissions that matter most sit outside their own walls. Scope 3 emissions, everything generated across your value chain, from the suppliers who make your inputs to the customers who use your products, typically make up the majority of a company’s total carbon footprint. Under the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD), those value-chain emissions now have to be measured and disclosed with a rigour that spend-based estimates alone struggle to satisfy. This guide sets out how to improve Scope 3 data accuracy for CSRD: the calculation methods open to you, how to move from estimates to verified supplier data, and how to govern that data so it holds up to audit.
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Carbon Footprint
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A carbon credit is a commitment that extends well into the future. The tonne of CO₂ compensated for today from a nature-based carbon project must remain out of the atmosphere for good, which means the forest behind the credit has to remain standing long after the transaction is complete. For any buyer, this raises a defining question: What ensures that the forest endures?
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Why Conventional Carbon Offsets Are Losing Boardroom Credibility
What replaced the cheap REDD credit on the boardroom slide deck, and why procurement is leading the rewrite.
Three years ago, a corporate slide showing a portfolio of cheap REDD+ credits could carry a board meeting. The number was big, the price was low, and the press release wrote itself. Today, that same slide gets sent back with questions. The questions are uncomfortable, the answers are unclear, and your general counsel is suddenly in the room.
Conventional carbon offsets are not dead. The voluntary carbon market retired 202 million tonnes in 2025, and the Morgan Stanley Institute for Sustainable Investing survey published in January 2026 confirmed that interest from corporate buyers remains substantial. What changed is the credibility threshold. The integrity floor has risen, the disclosure scrutiny has tightened, and the buyer profile has shifted. This article tracks what changed, what sophisticated buyers now ask before signing, and what serious corporates are putting on the board slide instead.
What boards used to buy, and why it stopped working
The 2020 to 2022 model was simple: buy a large tranche of avoidance credits at low single-digit prices, retire them against the company footprint, announce the carbon-neutral claim, and move on. Most of those credits came from REDD+ projects, renewable energy installations in countries where the renewable energy was already economic, or methane projects with thin documentation.
Several things broke that model. Academic research published in 2023, including a widely cited Science paper, found that the majority of REDD+ credits issued under the most common methodologies did not represent additional reductions when tested against rigorous counterfactuals. The Voluntary Carbon Markets Integrity Initiative published its Claims Code of Practice, which sets requirements for what companies can credibly claim from credit use. The European Union finalised its Green Claims Directive, restricting how companies can describe products as climate-neutral. France’s Décret 2022-539 already restricts carbon neutrality advertising. California’s AB 1305 imposes disclosure requirements on any company making net-zero or carbon-neutral claims while doing business in the state.
The collective effect: the cheap credit no longer buys the announcement, and the announcement now carries litigation risk.
The integrity reset: ICVCM, VCMI, and what changed
The Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market published the Core Carbon Principles in 2023 and began assessing methodologies against them in 2024. The first methodologies received the CCP label later that year. The point of the label is to give corporate buyers a defensible quality screen they can cite in disclosure.
The Voluntary Carbon Markets Integrity Initiative complements this on the demand side. Its Claims Code of Practice defines what a buyer can say (Silver, Gold, or Platinum claims, with associated requirements) based on the quality of credits used and the underlying decarbonisation strategy. Together, CCP and VCMI build a quality stack: CCP on the supply, VCMI on the claim, with the science-based target sitting underneath both.
The reset is not a ban on offsets. It is a ratchet. Credits that meet the new bar continue to clear; credits that do not, do not. The Morgan Stanley survey found that 61% of current buyers like the CCP label concept but that supply of labelled credits remains limited. That supply constraint is now visible in pricing.
What sophisticated buyers ask before they sign
The questions on the procurement scorecard have changed. A 2022 buyer might have asked about price, vintage, and project type. A 2026 buyer asks five different questions before any of those.
- What does the counterfactual look like, and who validated it.
- What is the permanence regime, and what is the buffer pool exposure.
- What is the leakage risk, and how is it mitigated.
- What rating has the project received from the independent ratings agencies (Sylvera, BeZero, Calyx Global), and what was the rationale.
- What is the documentation discipline that survives an audit four years from now when the procurement team that signed the contract has moved on.
If the vendor cannot answer those five questions on a first call, the conversation ends. Conversely, if the vendor can answer them with documented specificity, the conversation often expands beyond a single transaction toward a multi-year engagement.
Where this leaves your near-term commitments
You probably have near-term commitments that pre-date the integrity reset. Public targets to be carbon neutral by 2025 or 2030. Product-level claims that ran in last year’s marketing. Disclosed reduction trajectories that assumed continued access to cheap credits.
You have three workable paths. The first is to re-baseline your strategy, replacing the most exposed credits with higher-quality alternatives and adjusting the public language to match what you can defend. The second is to shift the underlying spend from offsetting outside your value chain to investing inside your value chain, where reductions count against Scope 3 directly and the audit trail is cleaner. The third is to keep the strategy and absorb the risk, which is increasingly the most expensive option once you price in litigation, restatement, and reputational exposure.
Most serious buyers are choosing the second path. It moves the carbon spend from a compliance cost to a procurement and resilience investment, and it removes the central failure point of the legacy model: the disconnect between where the emissions occurred and where the reductions sat. Nature-based supply chain investments, structured under the GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard and aligned to the SBTi FLAG Guidance, are the asset class that fits this brief. They generate inventory-grade reductions, they produce audit-grade documentation, and they survive the new claim restrictions because the carbon math sits inside the value chain that the disclosure already covers.
If you are reassessing a carbon strategy under the new integrity bar, or rebuilding a board narrative that has to survive a more skeptical audience, the carbon and sustainability experts at Carbon Credit Capital can help. The Dual-Value Model gives you a defensible alternative to legacy offset purchases, with the documentation and operational integration that survives the procurement scorecard and the audit. Schedule a consultation.
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