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Lithium prices have been unpredictable due to global tensions and mining difficulties. As reported by S&P Global, in 2023, lithium carbonate prices shot up past $80,000 per metric ton but later dropped as supply increased and demand slowed. By early 2024, prices stabilized out but remained weak.

But as of March 21, Platts assessed lithium carbonate (CIF North Asia) at $9,200 to $9,550 per ton. This forced several deals on hold, and some mining giants auctioned lithium for better price discovery.

The report highlighted two significant auctions in the first quarter of 2025.

  • On March 5, Albemarle Corp. sold spodumene concentrate (5.61% Li₂O) for 6,701 yuan per ton at its Zhenjiang plant, slightly above the SC6 price after factoring in quality, shipping, and taxes.
  • On March 11, Jiangxi Jiuling Lithium Co. Ltd. auctioned 120 metric tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate for 75,400 yuan per ton—just 100 yuan more than the spot price in China.

These auctions suggest a small price rebound, but overall, the market remains cautious.

Spodumene and Lithium Carbonate Prices Drop

Spodumene prices, which had been relatively stable, saw a 4.7% drop from March 12 to March 21, falling to $810/t. In contrast, Platts-assessed lithium carbonate DDP China decreased by only 1.1% over the same period.

Refineries have been hit hardest, as lithium chemical prices have fallen more than spodumene prices, leading to negative refining margins since mid-2024. This ongoing squeeze on profitability poses risks for companies dependent on refining operations rather than raw material extraction.

Falling prices have forced lithium producers to scale back spending and delay projects. This is how the industry is adjusting to falling lithium prices.

lithium producers

SQM’s Profit Drops 40.9% as Lithium Prices Crash

Chile’s SQM, the world’s second-largest lithium producer, reported a 40.9% drop in fourth-quarter profit. Despite selling more lithium in 2024, falling prices hurt earnings.

Revenue hit $1.07 billion, slightly above the $1 billion analysts expected. But with lithium prices down over 80% in two years, profits took a hit.

Sales grew about 20% from last year, but lower prices wiped out the gains. “Our average price dropped over 64%,” SQM said, adding that prices in early 2025 will likely be even lower than in late 2024.

To adjust, SQM is cutting 2025 spending to $1.1 billion from $1.6 billion in 2024. Most of this will go to its Chile lithium operations ($550 million), with $350 million for iodine and $200 million for international lithium projects.

Sibanye Stillwater’s Exit Adds to Lithium Supply Worries

Similarly, Sibanye Stillwater Ltd. exited its lithium joint venture at Rhyolite Ridge in the U.S. on February 26 this year. As per the company, the project didn’t meet the expected returns at safe price estimates. However, the project had a potential capacity of producing 22,000 tons of lithium carbonate.

Experts are speculating that Sibanye Stillwater’s pullout could worsen the global lithium supply deficit. Furthermore, the rising demand for EVs may drive price swings, impacting battery costs and supply.

  • S&P Global analysed that if lithium prices stay at March’s low of $9,202 per ton (CIF Asia), then about 26% of the expected 2025 production could run at a loss due to high cash costs.

EV Boom Fuels Lithium Demand, But Policy Shifts Could Shake Market

The push for electric vehicles (EVs) is driving long-term lithium demand as automakers ramp up production. Stricter emissions policies worldwide are accelerating this shift, making a stable lithium supply more critical than ever.

PEV sales and lithium demand

Strong EV Sales in February

Global sales of passenger plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) surged in February. In China, trade-in subsidies boosted demand, while in Europe, stricter CO2 regulations played a key role.

  • Europe’s top four markets saw a 15.8% increase in PEV sales compared to last year. New CO2 targets introduced in January 2024 pushed automakers to step up.
  • To ease pressure, the European Commission proposed a temporary measure allowing companies to meet targets over three years instead of facing heavy fines in 2025. Without this, automakers could have faced losses of €16 billion.

U.S. EV Market Faces Uncertainty

In the U.S., PEV sales grew by 6.5% year over year in February, with a 4.5% month-over-month increase. Many rushed to buy EVs before potential tax credit changes.

However, a new bill—”Eliminating Lavish Incentives to Electric Vehicles Act“—could shake up the market. Introduced by Republican senators in February 2025, the bill aims to:

  • End the $7,500 tax credit for new EVs
  • Eliminate incentives for used EV purchases
  • Cut funding for EV charging stations
  • Close tax loopholes benefiting certain buyers

If passed, the bill could slow EV adoption by making vehicles more expensive and charging less accessible. EV demand remains strong, but shifting policies could reshape the market in the coming years.

A classic example of Tesla. Despite overall EV market growth, Tesla has struggled since last year. February sales dropped significantly in key markets, falling 76% year over year in Germany and 49% in China.

A Ray of Hope: Boosting Lithium Output to Fuel Global Demand

While some lithium producers are holding tight on supplies, some are expanding mining and refining capacities to keep up with the rising demand. Australia, Chile, and Argentina continue to lead lithium extraction, while the U.S. and Europe are working to strengthen domestic production to reduce supply chain vulnerabilities.

On March 20, President Trump signed an executive order to boost the domestic production of critical minerals. The order provides financing, loans, and investment support for lithium mining and processing projects in the U.S. to reduce reliance on imports from key lithium-producing nations like China.

S&P Global also noted that new lithium refining projects are being developed for battery production. However, delays in permits, environmental issues, and geopolitical risks might once again slow expansion.

The chart below shows that each quarter of 2024 displays consistent growth, with production exceeding 100,000 metric tons by Q3 and Q4. This reflects a significant increase in lithium output. This was driven by the growing demand for EV batteries and renewable energy storage systems.

lithium output

Lithium Price Forecast

Lithium price forecasts are also following a downward trend. June and September prices are expected at $8,604 and $9,078 per ton.

LITHIUM price
Source: S&P Global Commodity Insights
This decline can push lithium producers to make more supply cuts. They need to diligently tackle cost pressures, investments, policy changes, and global risks to stay profitable. However, even though the lithium market remains volatile, the crucial mineral’s role is vital in the energy transition.

The post Lithium Prices Drop—What It Means for EV Batteries & Global Supply Chains appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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Carbon Footprint

Insetting vs Offsetting: Which Actually Counts Toward Your Scope 3 Targets

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The accounting differences that decide whether your nature investment shows up in inventory, in BVCM, or nowhere at all.

The question reaches a procurement team about three weeks before the next sustainability committee meeting. Someone has read about insetting. Someone else has just signed off on an offset purchase. The CSO wants to know if the two are interchangeable. The answer is no, and the GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard is the reason why.

This article walks through what each term means at audit-grade specificity, what the standards actually say about how each gets counted, and how to decide which tool fits which target. The insetting vs offsetting question is one of the most-searched in corporate climate strategy, and one of the most poorly answered. By the end of this piece, you should be able to brief a committee on the difference without notes.

The two definitions, in plain English

Offsetting means buying carbon credits generated outside your value chain and retiring them against your residual emissions. The reduction happens somewhere else, financed by you, and the credit is the receipt.

Insetting means investing in emission reductions or removals inside your own value chain, typically with suppliers, where the reduction is directly linked to the products and services you buy. The reduction happens inside the boundary of your Scope 3 inventory, and the accounting treatment is fundamentally different.

The shorthand from the University of Oxford’s Nature-based Insetting Initiative is useful: insetting is what you do with the supply chain you have; offsetting is what you do with the supply chain you do not have.

What the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard actually says

The GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard, finalised in 2024 after a multi-year pilot, sets the rules for how land-based emission reductions and removals enter corporate inventories. The Standard distinguishes between inventory accounting (Scope 1, 2, and 3) and project or intervention accounting (a separate methodology for crediting).

For insetting, the practical implication is that supplier-level interventions, when properly measured and attributed, can reduce your Scope 3 category 1 (purchased goods and services) emissions in your inventory. The reduction is not a credit retired against the inventory; it is a lower inventory number, period.

For offsetting, the credit is retired separately. It can be reported as a contribution toward a net-zero claim under the SBTi Beyond Value Chain Mitigation framework or as part of a VCMI Carbon Integrity claim, but it does not lower the inventory number.

A practical consequence: if your Science Based Target requires a 50% absolute reduction in Scope 3 emissions by 2030, insetting moves you toward the target. Offsetting does not. This single point of difference reshapes the procurement decision.

When insetting counts toward Scope 3 (and when it does not)

Insetting counts toward Scope 3 only when several conditions are met:

  • The intervention must occur with an entity in your value chain.
  • The emissions reduction or removal must be measured against a defensible baseline.
  • The reduction must be attributed to your share of that supplier’s output, not double-counted with other buyers.
  • It must follow the inventory accounting rules in the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard, not the project accounting rules used to generate credits.

The most common failure mode is double counting. If your supplier sells the same reduction as a credit on the voluntary market and also reports it to you as a Scope 3 reduction, the math breaks. The Standard requires you to address this risk, typically by purchasing and retiring the supplier-issued credit as part of your inventory or by contractual provisions that prevent the supplier from selling the reduction twice.

When insetting does not count toward Scope 3: when the intervention sits with a supplier you do not buy from, when the baseline is not defensible, when the attribution is unclear, or when the documentation does not survive audit. Those cases default to Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, which is still useful but operates on a different ledger.

The procurement and supplier engagement question

Insetting is harder than offsetting. That is the unfashionable truth most buyers eventually confront. Offsetting is a transaction; insetting is a relationship.

To run an insetting program, you need supplier mapping precise enough to know which farms or facilities sit at which Scope 3 boundary. You need an engagement model that gets suppliers to participate, which usually requires multi-year commitments and shared economics. You need an MRV architecture that measures the right things and produces audit-ready documentation. And you need a contractual structure that prevents double counting and protects both sides.

The trade-off you receive in return is significant. Reductions count against your inventory rather than your residual. Supplier relationships deepen, which protects sourcing continuity. Yield and quality improvements often follow regenerative interventions, which reduces your input cost over time. And the regulatory file, under CSRD, CSDDD, EUDR, and the SBTi FLAG Guidance, is materially stronger.

Choosing the right tool for the right target

A practical decision rule. If your target is a science-based Scope 3 reduction and you operate in a FLAG sector or source FLAG commodities, insetting is the structurally correct tool. If your target is a net-zero claim that includes neutralising hard-to-abate residual emissions outside your value chain, BVCM via high-integrity offsets is the structurally correct tool. Most companies with material Scope 3 exposure need both, in different proportions, sequenced over time.

The sequencing matters. Insetting takes longer to stand up but produces a permanent reduction in the inventory. Offsetting can be transacted faster but does not change the inventory and now sits under tighter claim restrictions. Treat them as complementary tools with different jobs, not as substitutes. The Accountability Framework Initiative and the IUCN Global Standard for Nature-based Solutions both provide useful guardrails for the insetting side, with biodiversity, human rights, and benefit-sharing requirements that go beyond carbon math.

If you are mapping a Scope 3 reduction roadmap and need to scope which interventions count toward your inventory versus which sit in Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, the carbon and sustainability experts at Carbon Credit Capital can help you structure a nature-based supply chain investment program that fits your FLAG exposure, your target architecture, and your audit horizon. Schedule a consultation.

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Carbon Footprint

Net zero needs nature: a carbon credit guide

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Net zero is often described as a balancing act: cut what you can, account for the rest, and reach zero on the ledger. That framing is useful, but it leaves something out. It treats every tonne of carbon as interchangeable and every route to zero as equally sound, while the science tells a more specific story.

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Carbon Footprint

Deforestation in Malawi: causes and solutions

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Malawi has lost a striking share of its forests over the past three decades. Woodlands that once covered well over a third of the country now cover less than a quarter, and the pressure on what remains is increasing. Behind those figures sit two practical questions: what is driving the loss, and what reverses it?

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