More than half of global cropland areas could see a decline in the number of suitable crops under a warming scenario of 2C, new research finds.
The study, published in Nature Food, projects how climate change will modify the areas suited for growing 30 major crops under four scenarios, ranging from 1.5 to 4C of global warming.
It finds that under just 1.5C of warming, more than half of the studied crops would suffer from an overall loss of potential suitable cropland, compared to the current climate.
While warming would decrease crop diversity in the tropics, it would increase in areas far from the equator, “offering opportunities for climate change adaptation”, the authors write.
One scientist, who was not involved in the study, tells Carbon Brief that expanding research beyond just staple crops is “essential to understand[ing] the full impact of climate change on agriculture”, adding that “it is exciting to see more work in this space”.
Declining ‘safe’ space for crops
Cultivating a diverse range of crops contributes to a more stable and diverse food supply.
For example, having a wide variety of crops allows farmers to select the crops that will be most resilient to extreme events, such as drought.
In order to understand how climate change will affect future potential crop diversity, the researchers identify the “safe climatic space” – or climate “niche” – for 30 major crops. This approach “maps the current climatic space of the major production areas of each crop”, based on annual rainfall, biotemperature and aridity.
(Biotemperature is the average of monthly average temperatures above 0C and below 30C, and is a method of considering both temperature and growing season.)
Using the “safe climatic space” approach, the authors calculate crop diversity by counting the number of crops that could be grown in a specific area in the future.
Then, the researchers project how these areas would change under the four future warming scenarios of 1.5C, 2C, 3C and 4C above pre-industrial levels, compared to the current climate (1990-2020).
The study finds that under a 1.5C warming scenario, more than half of the 30 crops analysed would see a net decrease in their global potential cropland area. The most affected crops are wheat, barley, soya beans, lentils and potatoes.
Beyond 2C warming, the declines in suitable areas for the 30 crops become more pronounced – in some cases approaching and passing 50%, the study notes.
In a 3C scenario, all of the 30 crops studied would have their suitable cropland area reduced, with the same set of crops most affected.
The chart below shows the percentage changes in global potential cropland area for all the crops under the four warming scenarios examined. Each colour represents a level of global warming.
The 30 crops were classified into five groups: cereals, fruits and vegetables, oil crops, pulses and starchy roots.
Dr Dale Rankine is an applied climate scientist at the University of the West Indies. The expert, not involved in the study, tells Carbon Brief that the wide range of crops analysed in the research is “commendable” and that the findings are largely in line with previous work.
Dr José Clavijo Michelangeli, chief product officer at Praedictus Climate Solutions, an agricultural data and forecasting company, notes that most studies on agriculture and climate change only focus on the impacts to main staple crops, such as maize, wheat, rice and soya beans. Clavijo Michelangeli, who was also not involved in the study, tells Carbon Brief:
“Studies expanding to other crops are essential to understand the full impact of climate change on agriculture and it is exciting to see more work in this space.”
He points out that although the findings are consistent with previous understanding of the impacts of climate change on cropping systems, the climate data used to define the “safe climatic spaces” may not “align” with the responses to temperature of the crops currently grown there. He tells Carbon Brief:
“This has the potential to over or underestimate the potential change in suitability of the crop in that region.”
Unequal impacts
The study also reveals that climate change impacts on crop production and diversity will vary across regions.
Regions near the equator, such as sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, would see the greatest declines in potential crop diversity – decreasing “on more than 70% of the cropland area if global warming exceeds 2C”, according to the study.
By contrast, global warming could increase the diversity of crops in other regions – such as North America, Europe, central Asia and Latin America. In these regions, crop diversity would increase – or see no change – on more than half of the cropland area under warming levels of up to 3C, the study says.
The map below shows the potential changes in crop diversity at 2C of warming. The inset charts show crop-diversity changes divided by regions and global warming levels, with the x-axis of the charts representing the four warming scenarios. Areas in brown represent places where crop diversity is projected to decrease, while those in blue are areas where crop diversity is projected to increase.
Adaptation opportunity
For areas that could see an increase in crop diversity, this creates “opportunities for climate change adaptation”, the authors say.
Clavijo Michelangeli says that the overall pattern of where the highest or lowest risks lie is in line with prior research. He adds:
“It is very likely that warming temperatures will not only increase diversification – which is in fact already happening – but also productivity of higher-latitude systems.
“The work is also very important in continuing to emphasise the need to do more research in tropical systems.”
Rankine warns that the benefits of increased crop production in temperate climates should not come at the expense of working to adapt agriculture in tropical climates. He argues that if future production centers on temperate countries, it could result in “a disinterest in tropical crops”.
He tells Carbon Brief that an uptick of extreme events in temperate areas in the future could endanger global food security:
“If [temperate regions] become the hub for food production, this could lead to global food shortages…This would amount to maladaptation, the opposite of diversity.”
The study calls to limit global warming to 2C “to avoid detrimental impacts on food production”, especially in the tropics, where many of the world’s most-vulnerable nations are located.
Sara Heikonen, the study’s lead author and a doctoral researcher at Finland’s Aalto University, says that any negative effect on agriculture in these regions would impact global food networks. Therefore, she says, “international collaboration and support for countries that need help with adaptation” will be critical for “developing new agricultural practices to adapt to these difficult conditions”.
The post Half of global croplands could see a drop in suitable crops at 2C of warming appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Half of global croplands could see a drop in suitable crops at 2C of warming
N.C. Gov. Josh Stein wants state lawmakers to rethink tax breaks for data centers. The industry’s opacity makes it difficult to evaluate costs and benefits.
Tax breaks for data centers in North Carolina keep as much as $57 million each year into from state and local government coffers, state figures show, an amount that could balloon to billions of dollars if all the proposed projects are built.
The Global Environment Facility (GEF), a multilateral fund that provides climate and nature finance to developing countries, has raised $3.9 billion from donor governments in its last pledging session ahead of a key fundraising deadline at the end of May.
The amount, which is meant to cover the fund’s activities for the next four years (July 2026-June 2030), falls significantly short of the previous four-year cycle for which the GEF managed to raise $5.3bn from governments. Since then, military and other political priorities have squeezed rich nations’ budgets for climate and development aid.
The facility said in a statement that it expects more pledges ahead of the final replenishment package, which is set for approval at the next GEF Council meeting from May 31 to June 3.
Claude Gascon, interim CEO of the GEF, said that “donor countries have risen to the challenge and made bold commitments towards a more positive future for the planet”. He added that the pledges send a message that “the world is not giving up on nature even in a time of competing priorities”.
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Donors under pressure
But Brian O’Donnell, director of the environmental non-profit Campaign for Nature, said the announcement shows “an alarming trend” of donor governments cutting public finance for climate and nature.
“Wealthy nations pledged to increase international nature finance, and yet we are seeing cuts and lower contributions. Investing in nature prevents extinctions and supports livelihoods, security, health, food, clean water and climate,” he said. “Failing to safeguard nature now will result in much larger costs later.”
At COP29 in Baku, developed countries pledged to mobilise $300bn a year in public climate finance by 2035, while at UN biodiversity talks they have also pledged to raise $30bn per year by 2030. Yet several wealthy governments have announced cuts to green finance to increase defense spending, among them most recently the UK.
As for the US, despite Trump’s cuts to international climate finance, Congress approved a $150 million increase in its contribution to the GEF after what was described as the organisation’s “refocus on non-climate priorities like biodiversity, plastics and ocean ecosystems, per US Treasury guidance”.
The facility will only reveal how much each country has pledged when its assembly of 186 member countries meets in early June. The last period’s largest donors were Germany ($575 million), Japan ($451 million), and the US ($425 million).
The GEF has also gone through a change in leadership halfway through its fundraising cycle. Last December, the GEF Council asked former CEO Carlos Manuel Rodriguez to step down effective immediately and appointed Gascon as interim CEO.
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New guidelines
As part of the upcoming funding cycle, the GEF has approved a set of guidelines for spending the $3.9bn raised so far, which include allocating 35% of resources for least developed countries and small island states, as well as 20% of the money going to Indigenous people and communities.
Its programs will help countries shift five key systems – nature, food, urban, energy and health – from models that drive degradation to alternatives that protect the planet and support human well-being by integrating the value of nature into production and consumption systems.
The new priorities also include a target to allocate 25% of the GEF’s budget for mobilising private funds through blended finance. This aligns with efforts by wealthy countries to increase contributions from the private sector to international climate finance.
Niels Annen, Germany’s State Secretary for Economic Cooperation and Development, said in a statement that the country’s priorities are “very well reflected” in the GEF’s new spending guidelines, including on “innovative finance for nature and people, better cooperation with the private sector, and stable resources for the most vulnerable countries”.
Aliou Mustafa, of the GEF Indigenous Peoples Advisory Group (IPAG), also welcomed the announcement, adding that “the GEF is strengthening trust and meaningful partnerships with Indigenous Peoples and local communities” by placing them at the “centre of decision-making”.
The post GEF raises $3.9bn ahead of funding deadline, $1bn below previous budget appeared first on Climate Home News.
GEF raises $3.9bn ahead of funding deadline, $1bn below previous budget
Tropical cyclones that rapidly intensify when passing over marine heatwaves can become “supercharged”, increasing the likelihood of high economic losses, a new study finds.
Such storms also have higher rates of rainfall and higher maximum windspeeds, according to the research.
The study, published in Science Advances, looks at the economic damages caused by nearly 800 tropical cyclones that occurred around the world between 1981 and 2023.
It finds that rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones that pass near abnormally warm parts of the ocean produce nearly double – 93% – the economic damages as storms that do not, even when levels of coastal development are taken into account.
One researcher, who was not involved in the study, tells Carbon Brief that the new analysis is a “step forward in understanding how we can better refine our predictions of what might happen in the future” in an increasingly warm world.
As marine heatwaves are projected to become more frequent under future climate change, the authors say that the interactions between storms and these heatwaves “should be given greater consideration in future strategies for climate adaptation and climate preparedness”.
‘Rapid intensification’
Tropical cyclones are rapidly rotating storm systems that form over warm ocean waters, characterised by low pressure at their cores and sustained winds that can reach more than 120 kilometres per hour.
The term “tropical cyclones” encompasses hurricanes, cyclones and typhoons, which are named as such depending on which ocean basin they occur in.
When they make landfall, these storms can cause major damage. They accounted for six of the top 10 disasters between 1900 and 2024 in terms of economic loss, according to the insurance company Aon’s 2025 climate catastrophe insight report.
These economic losses are largely caused by high wind speeds, large amounts of rainfall and damaging storm surges.
Storms can become particularly dangerous through a process called “rapid intensification”.
Rapid intensification is when a storm strengthens considerably in a short period of time. It is defined as an increase in sustained wind speed of at least 30 knots (around 55 kilometres per hour) in a 24-hour period.
There are several factors that can lead to rapid intensification, including warm ocean temperatures, high humidity and low vertical “wind shear” – meaning that the wind speeds higher up in the atmosphere are very similar to the wind speeds near the surface.
Rapid intensification has become more common since the 1980s and is projected to become even more frequent in the future with continued warming. (Although there is uncertainty as to how climate change will impact the frequency of tropical cyclones, the increase in strength and intensification is more clear.)
Marine heatwaves are another type of extreme event that are becoming more frequent due to recent warming. Like their atmospheric counterparts, marine heatwaves are periods of abnormally high ocean temperatures.
Previous research has shown that these marine heatwaves can contribute to a cyclone undergoing rapid intensification. This is because the warm ocean water acts as a “fuel” for a storm, says Dr Hamed Moftakhari, an associate professor of civil engineering at the University of Alabama who was one of the authors of the new study. He explains:
“The entire strength of the tropical cyclone [depends on] how hot the [ocean] surface is. Marine heatwave means we have an abundance of hot water that is like a gas [petrol] station. As you move over that, it’s going to supercharge you.”
However, the authors say, there is no global assessment of how rapid intensification and marine heatwaves interact – or how they contribute to economic damages.
Using the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) – a database of tropical cyclone paths and intensities – the researchers identify 1,600 storms that made landfall during the 1981-2023 period, out of a total of 3,464 events.
Of these 1,600 storms, they were able to match 789 individual, land-falling cyclones with economic loss data from the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) and other official sources.
Then, using the IBTrACS storm data and ocean-temperature data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the researchers classify each cyclone by whether or not it underwent rapid intensification and if it passed near a recent marine heatwave event before making landfall.
The researchers find that there is a “modest” rise in the number of marine heatwave-influenced tropical cyclones globally since 1981, but with significant regional variations. In particular, they say, there are “clear” upward trends in the north Atlantic Ocean, the north Indian Ocean and the northern hemisphere basin of the eastern Pacific Ocean.
‘Storm characteristics’
The researchers find substantial differences in the characteristics of tropical cyclones that experience rapid intensification and those that do not, as well as between rapidly intensifying storms that occur with marine heatwaves and those that occur without them.
For example, tropical cyclones that do not experience rapid intensification have, on average, maximum wind speeds of around 40 knots (74km/hr), whereas storms that rapidly intensify have an average maximum wind speed of nearly 80 knots (148km/hr).
Of the rapidly intensifying storms, those that are influenced by marine heatwaves maintain higher wind speeds during the days leading up to landfall.
Although the wind speeds are very similar between the two groups once the storms make landfall, the pre-landfall difference still has an impact on a storm’s destructiveness, says Dr Soheil Radfar, a hurricane-hazard modeller at Princeton University. Radfar, who is the lead author of the new study, tells Carbon Brief:
“Hurricane damage starts days before the landfall…Four or five days before a hurricane making landfall, we expect to have high wind speeds and, because of that high wind speed, we expect to have storm surges that impact coastal communities.”
They also find that rapidly intensifying storms have higher peak rainfall than non-rapidly intensifying storms, with marine heatwave-influenced, rapidly intensifying storms exhibiting the highest average rainfall at landfall.
The charts below show the mean sustained wind speed in knots (top) and the mean rainfall in millimetres per hour (bottom) for the tropical cyclones analysed in the study in the five days leading up to and two days following a storm making landfall.
The four lines show storms that: rapidly intensified with the influence of marine heatwaves (red); those that rapidly intensified without marine heatwaves (purple); those that experienced marine heatwaves, but did not rapidly intensify (orange); and those that neither rapidly intensified nor experienced a marine heatwave (blue).
Dr Daneeja Mawren, an ocean and climate consultant at the Mauritius-based Mascarene Environmental Consulting who was not involved in the study, tells Carbon Brief that the new study “helps clarify how marine heatwaves amplify storm characteristics”, such as stronger winds and heavier rainfall. She notes that this “has not been done on a global scale before”.
However, Mawren adds that other factors not considered in the analysis can “make a huge difference” in the rapid intensification of tropical cyclones, including subsurface marine heatwaves and eddies – circular, spinning ocean currents that can trap warm water.
Dr Jonathan Lin, an atmospheric scientist at Cornell University who was also not involved in the study, tells Carbon Brief that, while the intensification found by the study “makes physical sense”, it is inherently limited by the relatively small number of storms that occur. He adds:
“There’s not that many storms, to tease out the physical mechanisms and observational data. So being able to reproduce this kind of work in a physical model would be really important.”
Economic costs
Storm intensity is not the only factor that determines how destructive a given cyclone can be – the economic damages also depend strongly on the population density and the amount of infrastructure development where a storm hits. The study explains:
“A high storm surge in a sparsely populated area may cause less economic damage than a smaller surge in a densely populated, economically important region.”
To account for the differences in development, the researchers use a type of data called “built-up volume”, from the Global Human Settlement Layer. Built-up volume is a quantity derived from satellite data and other high-resolution imagery that combines measurements of building area and average building height in a given area. This can be used as a proxy for the level of development, the authors explain.
By comparing different cyclones that impacted areas with similar built-up volumes, the researchers can analyse how rapid intensification and marine heatwaves contribute to the overall economic damages of a storm.
They find that, even when controlling for levels of coastal development, storms that pass through a marine heatwave during their rapid intensification cause 93% higher economic damages than storms that do not.
They identify 71 marine heatwave-influenced storms that cause more than $1bn (inflation-adjusted across the dataset) in damages, compared to 45 storms that cause those levels of damage without the influence of marine heatwaves.
This quantification of the cyclones’ economic impact is one of the study’s most “important contributions”, says Mawren.
The authors also note that the continued development in coastal regions may increase the likelihood of tropical cyclone damages over time.
Towards forecasting
The study notes that the increased damages caused by marine heatwave-influenced tropical cyclones, along with the projected increases in marine heatwaves, means such storms “should be given greater consideration” in planning for future climate change.
For Radfar and Moftakhari, the new study emphasises the importance of understanding the interactions between extreme events, such as tropical cyclones and marine heatwaves.
Moftakhari notes that extreme events in the future are expected to become both more intense and more complex. This becomes a problem for climate resilience because “we basically design in the future based on what we’ve observed in the past”, he says. This may lead to underestimating potential hazards, he adds.
Mawren agrees, telling Carbon Brief that, in order to “fully capture the intensification potential”, future forecasts and risk assessments must account for marine heatwaves and other ocean phenomena, such as subsurface heat.
Lin adds that the actions needed to reduce storm damages “take on the order of decades to do right”. He tells Carbon Brief:
“All these [planning] decisions have to come by understanding the future uncertainty and so this research is a step forward in understanding how we can better refine our predictions of what might happen in the future.”
The post Marine heatwaves ‘nearly double’ the economic damage caused by tropical cyclones appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Marine heatwaves ‘nearly double’ the economic damage caused by tropical cyclones
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