A common criticism of heat pumps is that they do not work in cold weather.
However, the Nordic region – particularly Sweden, Finland and Norway – offers a rebuttal to this assessment, as our research at the Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP) shows.
These three European countries have the highest heat pump sales per 1,000 households in the continent.
Sweden, Norway and Finland also have the coldest climates in Europe. In all three countries, there are now more than 40 heat pumps per 100 households, more than in any other country in the world.
At RAP, we have analysed the driving factors that led to this Nordic success story, as part of the development of our heat pump policy toolkit, which we launched at the COP27 climate summit in Sharm el-Sheikh last year.
Heat pump market growth
Installations of heat pumps in the Nordics rose quickly after 2000 and, despite a slowdown in 2012, again continued to surge after 2015.
Heat pumps work like an air conditioning unit (or a fridge) in reverse, to concentrate heat energy from the outside air – or a water or ground source – into building interiors.
The most common are “air-to-air” units, meaning they take heat from the outside air to blow warm air inside, whereas air-to-water units make hot water. Heat pumps are the “central technology” for low-carbon heat, the International Energy Agency (IEA) says.
Norway has the highest penetration of heat pumps worldwide, most of which are air-to-air systems. By 2020, there were 60 heat pumps installed per 100 households in Norway. Most of this happened after 2001 when the heat pump market grew significantly from a low base of around 2,000 units per year to more than 155,000 units sold in 2022.
Similarly, in Finland, before 2000 only a few hundred units of heat pumps were installed per year. From the mid-2000s onwards, the country saw a rapid growth with cumulative installations now exceeding 1m units.
This can be seen in the chart below, which shows annual heat pump sales in Finland, Norway and Sweden from 1990 to 2021.
Because heat pumps use electricity that increasingly comes from low-carbon sources they lead to carbon emission reductions overall. Cumulatively, the heat pumps sold over the past 30 years contributed to a -72% drop in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from heating in Finland, -83% in Norway and -95% in Sweden.
In addition, recent RAP analysis shows that heat pumps, even at temperatures sub-zero, are two- to three times more efficient than fossil-fuel heating systems.
This rapid reduction in carbon emissions from heating cannot be attributed to heat pumps alone — district heating, also known as heat networks, has become less carbon intensive and buildings have been built and retrofitted to a higher fabric efficiency standard over time. However, heat pumps played a key part.
Achieving heat pump leadership
The Nordic countries were previously heavily reliant on heating oil to keep warm, a result of the absence of a widespread gas grid.
They – Finland, Norway and Sweden (Denmark uses district heating as its main source of heating, with two-thirds of homes relying on it) – made an early decision to move away from heating oil following the energy crisis in the 1970s. This had seen the oil price rocket by almost 300% due to an oil embargo by the Organisation of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC).
This crisis led to a widely supported goal to become independent from fossil-fuel imports, perhaps most starkly evident with the creation of a Commission for Oil Independence in Sweden in 2005.
Despite changes in political parties over time, this has remained a constant focus in national energy policy across these countries – and explains why fossil fuels make up a low share of heating fuels in Finland (22%), Norway (less than 1%) and Sweden (3%).
The decision to move away from oil heating provided an important stimulus for research and development of heat pump technology, followed by various promotional government programmes, including information campaigns and grant payments.
For Norway, specifically, it also had a large share of homes using electric heating. Converting electrically heated homes to heat pumps provides significant reductions in electricity demand and running costs because heat pumps are, typically,about three times more efficient than direct resistance heating.
More recently, regulations, such as the complete ban of using heating oil in buildings for heating, have come into effect in Norway. In June 2018, the government adopted a regulation banning the use of mineral oil (fossil oil) for the heating of buildings from 2020. The ban covers the use of mineral oil for heating in residential buildings, public buildings and commercial buildings.
Historic household electricity prices in all three countries were also relatively low compared to many other European countries with about €0.17 per kilowatt hour (KWh) in Finland and Norway and €0.20/kWh in Sweden before the price crisis.
Carbon taxation
Carbon taxation has played a key role in making heat pumps economically competitive in all three countries. In 1990, Finland was the first country in the world to introduce a carbon tax, which currently stands at €53 per tonne of CO2 (tCO2) for heating fuels.
Shortly after Finland, Sweden adopted a CO2 tax in 1991. Since its introduction, it has increased from €21/tCO2 to €102/tCO2 in 2022.
Norway also introduced a carbon tax in 1991, which reached €76/tCO2 in 2023. The government’s white paper on energy policy announced that the tax would rise to €196/tCO2 in 2030, which would be one of the highest levels in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
Many other countries across Europe have addressed imbalances in taxation of heating fuels to encourage heat pump uptake, including the Netherlands, Denmark and Germany, according to RAP analysis.
In Denmark, electricity used for heat pumps in homes is exempt from energy taxes to the minimum amount allowed under EU law. In Germany, levies have been shifted from bills to the public budget.
Air-to-air heat pumps
It is notable from the RAP data presented above that two-thirds of the heat pumps sold in the three countries are air-to-air heat pumps. This differs from other major European heat pump markets, such as Germany and Poland, where the majority of heat pumps are air-to-water.
The reason for this is that, in many cases, heat pumps replaced electric resistive heating with no hot water running through radiators.
Furthermore, the architecture in the Nordic countries tends to be more open plan compared to other European countries. This makes the application of air-to-air a more attractive proposition, without the need for extensive ducting or multiple individual fans.
In addition, air-to-air heat pumps are lower cost compared to air-to-water heat pumps, according to the IEA.
Air-to-air heat pumps can also be used for cooling. However, the Finnish Heat Pump Association estimates that air-to-air heat pumps used for cooling account for only 10%-15% of the market, with the majority being used for heating only.
In some cases (although, according to the Finnish heat pump association, this is a small minority) more than one heat pump is installed in a single building and heat pumps are also often operating with a second heat source being present.
Many homes continue to use wood stoves after having installed a heat pump as a study from the Oslo Centre for Research on Environmentally Friendly Energy (CREE) on heat pumps shows, albeit less frequently. This resulted in about a quarter less wood being used for heating in 2021 compared to 2010. The continued use of wood is at least in part a result of aesthetic and cultural preferences.
In Finland, heat pumps are often installed as an additional heating system complementing mainly electric heating.
Nordic clean heating lessons
RAP’s analysis has found that the success of heat pumps in the Nordics is not accidental.
Instead, it is the result of a mix of policy instruments working in concert, such as carbon taxation, government incentives, regulations, quality standards, consumer protection for example through the creation of bodies to deal with complaints and offer redress, and information campaigns.
The natural efficiency of heat pumps has also helped their deployment.
The key takeaway is that there is no single policy that can deliver a mass market for heat pumps. A well-designed policy mix of economic instruments, financial support and regulation, underpinned by coordination and engagement, turns out to be the most effective recipe for scaling up heat-pump deployment, according to RAP’s research.
The experience in the Nordic countries illustrates not only what can be achieved in just two decades, but how to do it.
Policymakers in countries where heat pumps are still in their infancy do not have to start from scratch, but can learn from – and build on – the heat-pump success story in Norway, Finland and Sweden.
The post Guest post: How heat pumps became a Nordic success story appeared first on Carbon Brief.
But a $345 million U.S. verdict against the environmental group hangs over the case.
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Greenpeace’s Dutch Anti-SLAPP Case Against Oil Pipeline Giant Advances
Go behind the scenes with executive editor Vernon Loeb and oceans correspondent Teresa Tomassoni as they discuss the search for heat-resilient coral reefs that are somehow defying the odds to survive a warming planet.
The world has already lost more than half of its coral reefs, and most of what remains is at risk of disappearing in the next 25 years.
Climate Change
DeBriefed 19 June 2026: Bonn talks end in ‘gridlock’ | Energy’s ‘new era’ | Oceans in climate negotiations
Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
Bonn talks close
‘SIDE-STEPPING AND STALLING’: UN climate talks in Bonn have ended in “gridlock”, according to Climate Home News. The outlet reported on the failure to balance developing countries’ need for climate-adaptation finance with “richer nations’ desire to move forward” on emissions cuts. It added that both topics were subject to “rule 16”, meaning no agreement could be reached and work will be pushed to the COP31 summit in Turkey. Inside Climate News quoted UN climate executive secretary Simon Stiell, who said the talks had seen “side-stepping and stalling”.
JUST TRANSITION: One “glimmer of hope” came from negotiations on achieving a “just transition”, reported Euronews. The news outlet said negotiators “made headway on operationalising the Belém-Antalya mechanism”, intended to support people in the shift to a low-carbon economy. However, Politico concluded that much of the focus in Bonn had “shift[ed] to efforts outside diplomatic talks – raising questions about the future of global climate negotiations”.
‘ATTACKING SCIENCE’: Agence France-Presse reported on the EU, Switzerland and “dozens of developing nations” warning of “attacks on science” by a “small group of fossil-fuels interests” in Bonn. Table Briefings explained that “the 1.5C target is increasingly being challenged” and the role of the UN climate-science panel – the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – in an upcoming assessment of global climate progress “remains controversial”. See Carbon Brief’s full write-up of the talks for more detail.
US-Iran deal
PRICE DROP: The US and Iran announced that they have reached an interim agreement to halt the war and reopen the strait of Hormuz, reported Bloomberg. Oil prices have fallen, as the “long-awaited deal” began the process of “eas[ing]” the global energy crisis triggered by the conflict, according to the New York Times. The Associated Press noted that high fuel prices will “likely outlast the Iran war”.
‘OIL GLUT’: The Financial Times reported that the International Energy Agency (IEA) has forecast a “glut of oil” emerging next year, if the peace deal holds. The IEA said this would allow countries to build new strategic reserves, as they “review their energy strategies and policies in response to the crisis”, according to Reuters.
‘NEW ERA’: Agence France-Presse reported that oil and gas companies have “few illusions about a return to normal for the Gulf energy industry after more than three months of blockage”. One analyst told the newswire that the war “showed the oil and gas industry that Hormuz risk is no longer just a geopolitical headline”.
Around the world
- OCEAN MONITOR: The Trump administration is “abandoning its plan” to dismantle a $368m ocean monitoring system key for tracking climate change after a “bipartisan backlash on Capitol Hill”, reported the New York Times.
- CORAL HAVEN: The New York Times covered preliminary research, presented at the Our Ocean Conference in Kenya, suggesting there could be three times as many “coral refugia” – where corals are relatively safe from climate change – than previously thought.
- BAD CREDIT: Down to Earth reported that the first carbon credits issued under the Paris Agreement’s new Article 6.4 mechanism are “facing scrutiny over alleged links to institutions controlled by Myanmar’s military junta”.
- OIL BACKTRACK: Reuters reported that oil-and-gas company Equinor has dropped a renewable-energy target and scaled back clean investments, while another Reuters story noted that Shell is selling off its offshore wind assets.
1.1 billion
The number of children facing “at least three overlapping climate hazards”, according to a new Unicef report covered by Agence France-Presse.
Latest climate research
- Including the “permafrost carbon-climate feedback” in climate models increases the chance of exceeding “tipping elements” – such as the Greenland ice sheets, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation or Amazon rainforest – by up to 50% | Environmental Research Letters
- The intensity of influenza outbreaks could decline in temperate regions, but increase in tropical areas over the next century, as the climate warms | PNAS Nexus
- European snow cover has declined by 20% for December and January since the start of the industrial era, revealing an “unprecedented ongoing shrinkage of European winters” | Communications Earth & Environment
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
The more than 2m battery electric vehicles (BEVs), 1m “plug-in” hybrids (PHEVs) and 100,000 electric vans on UK roads are already saving drivers a total of around £3bn a year, according to new Carbon Brief analysis. This amounts to savings of more than £1,100 a year in fuel costs for each BEV driver in the UK. The analysis comes amid reports in UK media this week that the government is considering “watering down” its EV sales targets.
Spotlight
Oceans rising at UN climate talks
The state of the world’s oceans is inextricably linked to the changing climate – and many delegates at UN climate talks want to see more focus on this issue, reports Carbon Brief.
Oceans are often described as the world’s “greatest ally” against climate change – absorbing 30% of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and most of the heat generated by those emissions.
They are also the site of important climate solutions, such as huge offshore windfarms and the shipping industry’s transition to cleaner fuels.
At the same time, the oceans themselves present a growing danger to coastal communities and sea life due to sea level rise, marine heatwaves and ocean acidification.
These diverse issues have led to growing calls within the UN climate process for more focus on oceans. During climate negotiations this week in Bonn – known as SB64 – nations and civil society had a chance to air these views during an “ocean and climate change dialogue”.
‘Elevate action’
Oceans first entered UN climate outcomes in 2019, when the final COP25 negotiated text requested a new “dialogue” on “the ocean and climate change to consider how to strengthen mitigation and adaptation action”.
The following years saw this dialogue established as an annual event. However, the political weight of these discussions has been limited.
COP31 is being co-led by Turkey and Australia, but with Pacific islands playing a supporting role. These small islands sometimes self-identify as “large ocean states”, stressing the ocean’s centrality in their societies.
In Bonn, figures from across the presidency threw their weight behind this issue. Chris Bowen, an Australian minister and incoming COP31 “president of negotiations”, told attendees:
“Australia, Turkey and the Pacific see an important opportunity to elevate ocean-based climate action.”
Strategies and finance
The two-day dialogue in Bonn involved a series of panels, statements and breakout groups.
One of the main topics was how oceans are integrated into national climate plans under the Paris Agreement, known as “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs).
Three-quarters of the latest round of NDCs mention oceans, with conservation of “blue carbon” ecosystems the most frequently described action. (Landscapes such as mangroves can both absorb CO2 and protect coastal areas.)
Delegates also discussed alignment with the UN biodiversity process, as well as ocean finance, which currently makes up less than 1% of all climate finance.
(As discussions were taking place in Bonn, country officials also gathered in Mombasa, Kenya for the 11th Our Ocean Conference. Carbon Brief’s associate editor Giuliana Viglione attended the conference and will publish a full summary shortly.)
Developing countries were clear that many of the ocean-related actions in their NDCs would depend on receiving more financial support.
‘Political momentum’
With the backing of the COP31 presidency, delegates were hopeful about where this year’s dialogue could lead.
Charles Hamilton, an advisor for the Bahamas who spoke for the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) in the dialogue, told Carbon Brief that island representatives “are not traveling thousands of miles to just talk and pat ourselves on the back”. He added:
“A dialogue that just remains a dialogue is just more talk – no action.”
Given that, he said “discussions in the dialogue must move into COP decisions and the decisions must be actioned”, noting the importance of finance.
Marina Corrêa, oceans lead at WWF-Brazil, pointed to an upcoming UN climate change Standing Committee on Finance forum as a space to ramp up pressure on ocean finance.
More broadly, she wanted to see the presidencies translate their support into a “leader-level ocean initiative” that could “mainstream” oceans across negotiations.
“We have a really interesting opportunity, in terms of political momentum,” Corrêa told Carbon Brief.
Watch, read, listen
‘HOTTER THAN HELL’: An episode of the BBC’s Rare Earth podcast titled “hotter than hell” considered the issue of extreme heat, with input from experts and “people facing up to the hottest temperatures on the planet”.
NOT BROKEN?: John Drake, a professor of ecology at the University of Georgia, wrote an essay for Aeon – also re-published as a Guardian “long read” – questioning the framing of ecosystems and climate systems “breaking down”.
ON COURSE: On his Volts podcast, US climate journalist David Roberts interviewed UK climate minister Katie White, quizzing her about whether the UK will “stay the course with its climate plans”.
Coming up
- 20-28 June: London climate action week
- 21 June: Colombia presidential runoff
- 24 June: UK Climate Change Committee progress in reducing emissions 2026 report to parliament
Pick of the jobs
- Mongabay, managing editor – Africa | Salary: Unknown. Location: Global
- Contexte, environment reporter – Brussels | Salary: €45,000-€60,000. Location: Brussels
- Climate 200, communications director | Salary: Unknown. Location: Australia
- Energy Tracker Asia, energy transition correspondent | Salary: $3,000-$4,000 per month. Location: South-east Asia (remote)
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.
The post DeBriefed 19 June 2026: Bonn talks end in ‘gridlock’ | Energy’s ‘new era’ | Oceans in climate negotiations appeared first on Carbon Brief.
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