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Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.

This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.

This week

Carbon Brief investigates offsets

SPECIAL WEEK: After months of interviews, research and data-crunching, Carbon Brief this week published a special series of content on the topic of carbon offsets. On the first day, Carbon Brief launched an in-depth explainer on whether carbon offsets can help to tackle climate change, a glossary laying out more than 60 of the key terms and phrases, an infographic illustrating the typical journey of a carbon offset and a timeline detailing the 60-year story of how offsets went from an idea to make polluters think about their damage to a major feature of country and business climate targets.

MAPS AND DATA: Later on in the week, Carbon Brief published an interactive map detailing the impacts of individual carbon-offset projects around the world. We also released a series of in-depth Sankey diagrams illustrating how offsets flow from the world’s most polluting companies to projects in the developing world. Separately, we published an explainer into how “biodiversity offsets” are rising in popularity, posing comparable moral questions to carbon offsets.

WEBINAR: Carbon Brief finished its special week by holding a webinar on whether carbon offsets can be reformed. It featured Dr Barbara Haya, director of the Berkeley Carbon Trading Project at the University of California, Berkeley; Kaya Axelsson, net-zero policy engagement fellow at the University of Oxford; Laura George, governance and rights coordinator of the Amerindian Peoples Association in Guyana; and Pedro Barata, associate vice president of carbon markets at the Environmental Defence Fund and co-chair of the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market’s expert panel. The webinar is now available to watch online.

UK ushers in more oil and gas

ROSEBANK APPROVED: In the latest twist in a remarkable month for UK climate policy, regulators this week granted final approval to the Rosebank oil-and-gas field, one of the largest new fossil-fuel projects in the North Sea in decades. The project has the potential to produce 300m barrels of oil and gas. When burned, this would produce the equivalent to the annual emissions of around 90 of the countries with the lowest emissions, according to analysis by Carbon Brief’s Dr Simon Evans.

TORY TURMOIL: The decision sparked more strife within the country’s ruling Conservative party. According to the Independent, Conservative peer and former minister Zac Goldsmith told BBC Radio Four’s PM programme: “It just trashes the UK’s reputation as a reliable, grown-up member of the global community, it’s done us immeasurable harm…The party that loses sight of the overall goal [of climate action and environmental protection] is not one that deserves to be given the privilege of power.” It comes after a frontpage story in the i newspaper on Monday reported that 100 of the country’s economists had written a letter arguing that prime minister Rishi Sunak’s wider climate rollbacks could “raise the cost of living and cost Britain jobs”.

Around the world

  • ‘EXCEPTIONAL’: Antarctica’s sea ice maximum – reached at the height of winter – was the lowest in the 45-year satellite record by “a wide margin”, Carbon Brief reported. One expert said Antarctic conditions had been “truly exceptional”.
  • SPRING SCORCHER: Large swathes of South America have faced an intense spring heatwave, with temperatures reaching 43C in Brazil, Grist reported.
  • SOUTH AFRICA FLOODS: At least 11 people have died after heavy rain and winds struck South Africa’s Western Cape province, BBC News reported. South African newspaper Daily Maverick spoke to scientists about the links to climate change.
  • SHELL-SHOCKED: A leaked open letter posted to Shell’s internal web revealed that some employees have said they are “deeply concerned” about the company’s shift away from investing more in renewable energy, Reuters reported.
  • YOUTH CLIMATE CASE: Six young people from Portugal on Wednesday began legal proceedings against 32 European countries in the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) for failing to protect them against climate change in an unprecedented case, Euronews reported.
  • NZ FARMER PROTEST: Reuters explored how “rural anger” over New Zealand’s climate policies, including tree-planting on grazing land, could usher in a return of far-right parties in an October election.

10%

The proportion by which the overall volume of Switzerland’s glaciers shrunk in the past two years, according to analysis covered by the Times.


Latest climate research

  • The densely populated, low-lying delta river basins of the Ganges and Mekong in Asia will likely see fewer tropical storms in a warming world, but they will be more intense, according to new research in Geophysical Research Letters.
  • Some 17% and 18% of new wind power projects faced local opposition in the US and Canada, respectively, from 2000-2016, found a study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
  • A new Nature study challenged the idea that climate change is behind the rapid demise of insects globally by identifying the role of complex weather patterns.

(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)

Captured

Global surface temperatures set a new record this week for the highest daily temperature anomalies (departure from the norm) ever observed. They were recorded by a Japanese climate database called the JRA-55 reanalysis product. These were approximately 1C warmer than the 1991-2020 baseline period used by the dataset and around 1.9C warmer than the pre-industrial (1850-1900) temperatures. “El Niño won’t peak until later this year and there is plenty more heat waiting in the wings,” Dr Michael McPhaden, a senior scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, told the Washington Post, warning that we can “expect more records to be set in the coming months.”

Spotlight

IEA’s path to 1.5C unpacked

A 2023 update to the landmark 2021 Net Zero Roadmap from the International Energy Agency explores how recent developments have impacted the path to limit warming to 1.5C by the end of the century. Here, Carbon Brief summarises three key takeaways from the report.

Extraordinary growth in clean energy technology over the past two years, but more work remains

The IEA’s 2023 report finds that record growth in solar power capacity, battery production and electric car sales since 2021 are in line with their required growth in a world that reaches net-zero emissions by mid-century. Industry plans to expand manufacturing capacity are also in line with what will be required to achieve necessary growth. These two technologies alone are expected to deliver approximately a third of emissions reductions between today and 2030 in the IEA’s net-zero pathway.

The IEA finds that the world is set to invest a massive $1.8tn in clean energy in 2023. But much more work remains: investments in clean energy need to climb to $4.5tn a year by the early 2030s, while global renewable capacity needs to triple by 2030. This requires stronger policies and international support, particularly in emerging markets and developing economies. The IEA also highlights the need to speed up permitting and modernising of electricity grids to better integrate variable renewable generation.

Most of the technologies needed to limit warming to 1.5C are available today

The IEA’s statement in 2021 that technologies not yet available on the market would deliver half of future emissions reductions resulted in a lot of coverage and debate. In its new report, the IEA finds that technological development and commercialisation over the past two years mean that novel technologies are only required for 35% of future emissions reductions. This reflects significant technological development in a number of sectors, including batteries and electrolysers.

However, the IEA emphasises that more progress is needed for a number of technologies. It notes that small, modular clean technologies, such as solar and batteries, are not sufficient to deliver net-zero emissions alone. Also, new infrastructure networks, low-emissions fuels, CO2 capture technology, nuclear power and large land areas for the deployment of renewables will all be necessary.

No room for new unabated coal plants or new ‘long-lead time’ oil and gas projects

The IEA report argues that an immediate end to new approvals of unabated coal plants is required to achieve its net-zero emissions scenario – and that there is no need for new long-lead time oil and gas projects. The rapid reduction in fossil fuel demand (down 25% by 2030 and 80% by 2050) means that current oil and gas projects are sufficient to supply all expected future demand.

However, the IEA does note that some continued investment in existing oil and gas fields is not inconsistent with a net-zero emissions scenario. It argues that it will be important to properly sequence increased investments in clean energy with decreased investments in fossil-fuel supply over time to avoid potentially damaging price spikes or demand gluts.

Watch, read, listen

IDA AFTERMATH: The 19th examined how, two years after Hurricane Ida, residents are still reeling – with women of colour disproportionately affected.

CLIMATE REFUGEES: In African Arguments, South African legal scholar Dr Cristiano d’Orsi argued that laws must be reformed to allow people fleeing from climate change to claim refugee status.

NATURE’S SECRETS: BBC Radio Four’s the Life Scientific podcast spoke to the director of London’s Kew Gardens about how lessons from nature can help the world to address climate change.

Coming up

Pick of the jobs

DeBriefed is written in rotation by Carbon Brief’s team and edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org

The post DeBriefed 29 September 2023: Focus on carbon offsets; UK expands oil and gas; IEA’s path to 1.5C unpacked appeared first on Carbon Brief.

DeBriefed 29 September 2023: Focus on carbon offsets; UK expands oil and gas; IEA’s path to 1.5C unpacked

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UN chief warns climate crisis “in overdrive” as El Niño threatens to fuel the fire

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The United Nations Secretary-General and foreign ministers from the UK, France and Spain have blamed the deadly wildfires engulfing Europe on climate change, using the disaster to renew calls for faster cuts to greenhouse gas emissions.

António Guterres told journalists on Friday that the “climate crisis is in overdrive”, adding that global heat seen so far is just a “warm up act” as a phenomenon known as El Niño intensifies “adding fuel to a planet already on fire”.

A new World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) report published on Friday predicts that the weather pattern will grow into a “strong event” between now and October, increasing the risk of higher than normal temperatures across much of the world and disrupted rainfalls.

“That risks shattering every seasonal record – and driving even more severe effects worldwide,” Guterres said.

El Niño builds on top of an already warming world, driven primarily by the burning of fossil fuels. A WMO scientist, who did not want to be named, told journalists that all the heatwaves and other climate impacts seen so far this year are “before the effects of El Niño are really kicking in at a global scale”.

Fossil fuellling the fires

Fires have broken out across much of Europe but are threatening the most people in the south-west of France near Bordeaux and in Central Spain near Madrid. Nearly a quarter of a million people have been evacuated in France with hundreds of homes destroyed while in Spain 80,000 people have had to leave their homes and at least 13 died in one village.

A scientific study published on Friday by the World Weather Attribution group found that man-made climate change made deadly fires in France twice as likely and those in Spain twenty times more likely. Smaller fires in the UK were not analysed by the study.

UN Climate Change leader Simon Stiell blamed fossil fuels for the fires, as well as storms in Chile and heatwaves in North America and Japan in recent weeks. “The climate alarm is blaring”, he said on Wednesday.

Guterres criticised new fossil fuel production projects and fossil fuel subsidies for causing hardship across the world. Discussing his speech, a senior UN official – who did not want to be named – said the subsidies amounted to trillions of US dollars a year and criticised pension funds and institutional investors, including insurance companies, for continuing to invest in fossil fuel projects.

The head of the United Nations Antonio Guterres (right) with the head of the UN’s climate arm Simon Stiell (left) at COP30 (Photo: Kiara Worth/UNFCCC)

Asked why world leaders and the public are not prioritising climate action, Guterres said they are distracted by wars in Ukraine, the Middle East, Sudan and elsewhere and sometimes forget “other aspects that are a sometimes even more dangerous threat”.

Also the fossil fuel industry and “some countries” are campaigning to pretend that climate change does not exist, he said, adding that the UN should be more active in “naming the situations as they are and the responsibilties as they are and mobilising the public opinion”.

After meetings in Paris and Madrid earlier in the week, the UK’s new foreign minister Ed Miliband issued joint statements with his French and Spanish counterparts – Jean-Noël Barrot and José Manuel Albares Bueno – calling on the world to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels.

They promised to do more to reduce emissions and protect their people and encouraged other governments to do the same.

The UK-French statement called on governments to publish UN climate plans, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), which are aligned with the Paris Agreement’s goal to limit global average temperatures to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

According to Climate Action Tracker, only three countries – the UK, Nigeria and Norway – have submitted NDCs with 2035 emissions reduction targets which are compatible with 1.5C. Fifty-two countries – including Egypt, Vietnam and Argentina – have yet to submit an NDC at all.

Defending science

Beyond action on emissions, the ministers also intervened in an ongoing dispute over the timing of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC)’s next flagship assessment.

Miliband and Barrot’s statement said they “underline the importance” of scientific report feeding into governments’ next global stocktake of progress on climate action in two years’ time, calling it a “critical input” to that process.

The timing of this report has been a contentious issue in government negotiations at the IPCC and at June’s climate talks in Bonn. While a group of nations calling themselves the “friends of science” want the report before the stocktake, others like Saudi Arabia and India have argued that this would make the report of a worse quality and less inclusive of developing countries’ scientists.

Science ‘under attack’ from fossil fuel interests at UN climate talks

The UK-Spanish statement weighed in less explicitly on this issue but said that they “recall the importance of scientific evidence and acknowledge the work of the IPCC in this respect.”

The British and French ministers said they would seek to accelerate reductions of emissions in methane, a particularly potent greenhouse gas, at COP31 in November. They encouraged governments “to work jointly to develop a marketplace for fossil fuels with near-zero methane intensity.”

Methane leaks from oil, gas and coal production are a major contributor to global warming. Over a 20-year period, methane traps around 80 times more heat than carbon dioxide.

Ed Miliband meets José Manuel Albares Bueno in Madrid on 29 July 2026. (Picture by Ed Morris / FCDO)

The UK and Spanish statement emphasised the importance of supporting the Global South and underlined the need to mobilise sustainable financing “at scale with the challenge we face”. The previous UK government, in which Miliband was energy minister, cut climate finance to developing countries to pay for increases in military spending.

The UK government led by new Prime Minister Andy Burnham has yet to outline any major changes to climate finance in its two weeks in power but has announced it will convert some finance from grants to loans in order to free up money to subsidise bus travel in England.

More adaptation needed

Guterres said that “it is time to stop treating each disaster as an isolated tragedy and recognise the systemic risk that is unfolding before our eyes.” A recent study found that three-quarters of UK media reports about the British June heatwave did not mention climate change.

As well as reducing emissions, the UN Secretary-General called for measures to adapt vulnerable people to extreme heat. Specifically, he said that buildings should be built and retrofitted for extreme heat and that every city and country should have heat-health action plans and early warning systems. Over 250 cities have joined the UN’s ‘beat the heat’ initiative, he said.

The Portuguese diplomat called for governments and employers to do more to protect their workers from heat, criticising global fashion brands for not setting heat standards for the factories that supply them. “No one should have to risk their life to earn a living,” he said.

The post UN chief warns climate crisis “in overdrive” as El Niño threatens to fuel the fire appeared first on Climate Home News.

UN chief warns climate crisis “in overdrive” as El Niño threatens to fuel the fire

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‘Ride the wave of momentum’: Australia announces once-in-a-decade Marine Parks Network review

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In response to the federal government announcing its once-in-a-decade review of Australia’s Marine Parks Network, the following lines can be attributed to Elle Lawless, Senior Campaigner at Greenpeace Australia Pacific:

“Greenpeace Australia Pacific welcomes today’s announcement that the Albanese Government will review Australia’s Commonwealth Marine Parks Network. This is a rare, once-in-a-decade opportunity to strengthen our marine parks and ban industrial fishing in Australia’s marine protected areas.

“Australians would be appalled to know that more than half of Australia’s Marine Parks Network currently allows for extractive industries, like longlining, bottom trawling and oil and gas mining. These so-called ‘protected’ areas were designed to safeguard our beloved ocean wildlife and underwater ecosystems – that is what Australians expect. Damaging industrial industries should not be given a free pass to trawl, fish, drill or extract from our marine parks.”

“With the first Ocean COP just around the corner, and off the back of Australia’s move to ratify the Global Ocean Treaty earlier this year, the Australian government has a unique opportunity to ride the wave of this momentum and solidify itself as a true global ocean leader.

“Greenpeace Australia Pacific is calling for industrial activities to be banned from our protected waters and for at least 30% of Australia’s ocean to be protected as ocean sanctuaries. This review presents a rare opportunity to create more ocean sanctuaries, true blue havens where ocean life can recover, thrive and repopulate the surrounding waters.”

—ENDS—

‘Ride the wave of momentum’: Australia announces once-in-a-decade Marine Parks Network review

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Factcheck: No, Europe is not having its ‘quietest’ year for wildfires

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In recent days, prominent climate sceptics and rightwing commentators have shared charts on social media incorrectly implying that Europe is having its “quietest” year for wildfires in 2026.

These include Dr Matthew Wielicki, a former University of Alabama geochemist and self-described “professor in exile”, who was recently appointed by the Trump administration to lead the US Global Change Research Program.

However, these charts paint a misleading picture as they are skewed by encompassing the entirety of Russia in the data – including the vast plains of Siberia.

These charts also use data that include fires that are deliberately lit to manage cropland, which is a declining practice across much of Europe.

In this factcheck, Carbon Brief shows that the area burned by wildfires across the European Union in 2026 is second only to 2022 for this time of year.

The latest data from the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) also shows that France has set a new modern record for area burned and Spain’s wildfire season is among the worst on record.

The fires have displaced more than a third of a million people across south-western Europe, while an impending heatwave has also raised fears of the fires worsening in the coming days.

‘Quietest year’

On 27 July, as wildfires raged across multiple European countries, former Conservative peer and climate-sceptic commentator Matt Ridley posted on Twitter that “2026 is the quietest year for wildfires in Europe by some distance”.

Misleading social media post by Mitt Ridley that says" er...2026 is the quietest year for wild fires un Europe by some distance."

Ridley, who sits on the academic advisory council of the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF), a UK-based climate-sceptic lobby group that refuses to reveal the sources of its funding, was responding to an article by Daily Telegraph columnist Tim Stanley.

Stanley’s column, headlined: “Climate change is real – and the right needs to get serious about it”, warned:

“This is no longer a matter of speculation: the wildfires of Europe, pitiless and persistent, are the way we live now.”

Ridley included a chart from Our World In Data, showing the cumulative area burned by wildfires by week for Europe. The chart puts 2026 as having the smallest area for this time of year in a dataset going back to 2012.

Ridley’s post was widely shared by prominent rightwing figures – including Richard Tice, deputy leader of the hard-right, climate-sceptic Reform UK party, former Conservative cabinet minister Jacob Rees-Mogg and multiple commentators.

Separately, Wielicki also shared a chart on Twitter to imply that wildfires in Europe are declining. Wielicki has previously claimed that the “science is not settled on climate change”.

The charts posted by Ridley and Wielicki both use data from the Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS). The GWIS category for “Europe” encompasses all the countries on the continent and includes the whole of Russia.

As a result, Russia accounts for about 74% of the area included in the GWIS definition of “Europe”.

Wildfires in Russia typically account for 80-90% of the burned area in the GWIS Europe dataset. In 2026, fires in Russia are substantially below average. Therefore, including Russia in this comparison creates the false impression that wildfire activity across Europe is unusually low.

Dr Calum Cunningham, a research fellow at the University of Tasmania’s Fire Centre, says that such claims are “highly misleading”, noting that “they rely on aggregating fire activity across an enormous and climatically diverse region”. He tells Carbon Brief:

“A relatively quiet season in Russia can easily mask an exceptionally active season in France or Spain. If the analysis is focused on the regions actually experiencing the current fires, the picture is very different.

“The reality is that western Europe has experienced an extraordinary sequence of climate conditions this year.”

In contrast, the EFFIS provides a subset of wildfire data specifically for the area covered by the 27 nations of the EU, which, therefore, excludes Russia.

Another difference between the two datasets is that GWIS monitors all fires – including those on agricultural land that are intentionally set alight. The burned area as measured by GWIS contains significant cropland area.

By contrast, EFFIS uses land-cover data and other information to filter specifically for forest fires.

Looking at the EU-only data from EFFIS reveals that Europe is far from having its “quietest” year. The bloc’s burned area, as of 29 July, is almost 435,000 hectares (ha) – second only to 2022 for this time of year.

The area burned by wildfires in the EU in 2026 by end of July is second only to 2022. Weekly cumulative burned area (hectares). Line graph shows 2026 burned area reaching over 400,000 hectares by late July, far exceeding the 2006-2025 average. Source: EFFIS - (alt text generated by Google Gemini)

Notably, Wielicki has actually continued to post charts based on GWIS data, even after acknowledging that “includ[ing] all of Russia, including vast areas of Siberia…isn’t a good proxy for Europe”.

French fires

Even looking at EU-wide data misses the scale of this year’s wildfires for some individual countries.

The chart below shows the surge in burned area in France since mid-July.

For much of the first half of the year, the country was having a wildfire season that was only slightly above average in terms of total burned area. However, a notable uptick began in the first week of July.

The third week of the month saw France break its previous cumulative annual record by more than 19,000ha. That gap has widened as the fires continue to burn; as of 29 July, the cumulative burned area in France during 2026 was nearly 24,700ha above the previous record.

France's wildfires in 2026 are the most widespread in modern records. Weekly cumulative burned area (hectares). A line chart shows 2026 burned area sharply rising by August to over 90,000 hectares, well above the 2006-2025 range maximum of around 65,000 and average of 15,000. Source: EFFIS - (alt text generated by Google Gemini)

The fires in France follow a record-breaking June heatwave that “dried out vegetation across the region, allowing fires to spread quickly”, wrote the New York Times.

On 27 July, French president Emmanuel Macron called a “crisis cabinet meeting” in order to address the fires “ravaging several areas of south-west France”, said France 24.

More than 220,000 people have been evacuated due to the Gironde fire, west of Bordeaux, in “what may be France’s largest peacetime evacuation”, reported the Associated Press.

In the Conversation, Cunningham and two other University of Tasmania researchers write that evacuation orders “protec[t] human lives, but makes it more likely houses and other structures will burn if there’s no one to defend them”. They add:

“There is little doubt climate change has made France and Spain’s wildfires worse. They represent yet another reason to redouble our efforts to tackle climate change and stabilise our climate.”

Central Spain scorched

While Spain’s fire season has not broken records in the same way that France’s has, it is on track to be among the worst since EFFIS began reporting data in 2006.

The chart below shows the rapid increase in burned area in Spain since 8 July. The latest data from EFFIS reveal that, as of 29 July, Spain has almost matched its previous record at this point in the year. It is also nearly five times the average area burned for this time of year.

Line chart titled "Spain's 2026 wildfires are among the worst in modern records", subtitle "Weekly cumulative burned area (hectares)". By August, 2026 burned area surges past 200,000 hectares, rising far above the 2006-2025 average and near the upper historical range. Source: EFFIS - (alt text generated by Google Gemini)

In Spain, the wildfires have been concentrated in the central part of the country, near Madrid.

BBC News reported that the fires outside the capital have burned “an area more than twice as large as the city itself”.

Nearly 90,000 people were forced from their homes in central Spain by the fires, said the Associated Press.

Pedro Sánchez, Spain’s prime minister, called the fires a “painful expression” of climate change.

Meanwhile, the UK, French and Spanish governments have issued joint statements this week in response to the fires. The UK/Spain statement begins:

“This summer’s wildfires demonstrated that climate change was now a national security emergency facing Europe and threatening our way of life.”

The post Factcheck: No, Europe is not having its ‘quietest’ year for wildfires appeared first on Carbon Brief.

Factcheck: No, Europe is not having its ‘quietest’ year for wildfires

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