Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
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This week
Carbon Brief investigates offsets
SPECIAL WEEK: After months of interviews, research and data-crunching, Carbon Brief this week published a special series of content on the topic of carbon offsets. On the first day, Carbon Brief launched an in-depth explainer on whether carbon offsets can help to tackle climate change, a glossary laying out more than 60 of the key terms and phrases, an infographic illustrating the typical journey of a carbon offset and a timeline detailing the 60-year story of how offsets went from an idea to make polluters think about their damage to a major feature of country and business climate targets.
MAPS AND DATA: Later on in the week, Carbon Brief published an interactive map detailing the impacts of individual carbon-offset projects around the world. We also released a series of in-depth Sankey diagrams illustrating how offsets flow from the world’s most polluting companies to projects in the developing world. Separately, we published an explainer into how “biodiversity offsets” are rising in popularity, posing comparable moral questions to carbon offsets.
WEBINAR: Carbon Brief finished its special week by holding a webinar on whether carbon offsets can be reformed. It featured Dr Barbara Haya, director of the Berkeley Carbon Trading Project at the University of California, Berkeley; Kaya Axelsson, net-zero policy engagement fellow at the University of Oxford; Laura George, governance and rights coordinator of the Amerindian Peoples Association in Guyana; and Pedro Barata, associate vice president of carbon markets at the Environmental Defence Fund and co-chair of the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market’s expert panel. The webinar is now available to watch online.
UK ushers in more oil and gas
ROSEBANK APPROVED: In the latest twist in a remarkable month for UK climate policy, regulators this week granted final approval to the Rosebank oil-and-gas field, one of the largest new fossil-fuel projects in the North Sea in decades. The project has the potential to produce 300m barrels of oil and gas. When burned, this would produce the equivalent to the annual emissions of around 90 of the countries with the lowest emissions, according to analysis by Carbon Brief’s Dr Simon Evans.
TORY TURMOIL: The decision sparked more strife within the country’s ruling Conservative party. According to the Independent, Conservative peer and former minister Zac Goldsmith told BBC Radio Four’s PM programme: “It just trashes the UK’s reputation as a reliable, grown-up member of the global community, it’s done us immeasurable harm…The party that loses sight of the overall goal [of climate action and environmental protection] is not one that deserves to be given the privilege of power.” It comes after a frontpage story in the i newspaper on Monday reported that 100 of the country’s economists had written a letter arguing that prime minister Rishi Sunak’s wider climate rollbacks could “raise the cost of living and cost Britain jobs”.
Around the world
- ‘EXCEPTIONAL’: Antarctica’s sea ice maximum – reached at the height of winter – was the lowest in the 45-year satellite record by “a wide margin”, Carbon Brief reported. One expert said Antarctic conditions had been “truly exceptional”.
- SPRING SCORCHER: Large swathes of South America have faced an intense spring heatwave, with temperatures reaching 43C in Brazil, Grist reported.
- SOUTH AFRICA FLOODS: At least 11 people have died after heavy rain and winds struck South Africa’s Western Cape province, BBC News reported. South African newspaper Daily Maverick spoke to scientists about the links to climate change.
- SHELL-SHOCKED: A leaked open letter posted to Shell’s internal web revealed that some employees have said they are “deeply concerned” about the company’s shift away from investing more in renewable energy, Reuters reported.
- YOUTH CLIMATE CASE: Six young people from Portugal on Wednesday began legal proceedings against 32 European countries in the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) for failing to protect them against climate change in an unprecedented case, Euronews reported.
- NZ FARMER PROTEST: Reuters explored how “rural anger” over New Zealand’s climate policies, including tree-planting on grazing land, could usher in a return of far-right parties in an October election.
10%
The proportion by which the overall volume of Switzerland’s glaciers shrunk in the past two years, according to analysis covered by the Times.
Latest climate research
- The densely populated, low-lying delta river basins of the Ganges and Mekong in Asia will likely see fewer tropical storms in a warming world, but they will be more intense, according to new research in Geophysical Research Letters.
- Some 17% and 18% of new wind power projects faced local opposition in the US and Canada, respectively, from 2000-2016, found a study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
- A new Nature study challenged the idea that climate change is behind the rapid demise of insects globally by identifying the role of complex weather patterns.
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
Global surface temperatures set a new record this week for the highest daily temperature anomalies (departure from the norm) ever observed. They were recorded by a Japanese climate database called the JRA-55 reanalysis product. These were approximately 1C warmer than the 1991-2020 baseline period used by the dataset and around 1.9C warmer than the pre-industrial (1850-1900) temperatures. “El Niño won’t peak until later this year and there is plenty more heat waiting in the wings,” Dr Michael McPhaden, a senior scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, told the Washington Post, warning that we can “expect more records to be set in the coming months.”
Spotlight
IEA’s path to 1.5C unpacked
A 2023 update to the landmark 2021 Net Zero Roadmap from the International Energy Agency explores how recent developments have impacted the path to limit warming to 1.5C by the end of the century. Here, Carbon Brief summarises three key takeaways from the report.
Extraordinary growth in clean energy technology over the past two years, but more work remains
The IEA’s 2023 report finds that record growth in solar power capacity, battery production and electric car sales since 2021 are in line with their required growth in a world that reaches net-zero emissions by mid-century. Industry plans to expand manufacturing capacity are also in line with what will be required to achieve necessary growth. These two technologies alone are expected to deliver approximately a third of emissions reductions between today and 2030 in the IEA’s net-zero pathway.
The IEA finds that the world is set to invest a massive $1.8tn in clean energy in 2023. But much more work remains: investments in clean energy need to climb to $4.5tn a year by the early 2030s, while global renewable capacity needs to triple by 2030. This requires stronger policies and international support, particularly in emerging markets and developing economies. The IEA also highlights the need to speed up permitting and modernising of electricity grids to better integrate variable renewable generation.
Most of the technologies needed to limit warming to 1.5C are available today
The IEA’s statement in 2021 that technologies not yet available on the market would deliver half of future emissions reductions resulted in a lot of coverage and debate. In its new report, the IEA finds that technological development and commercialisation over the past two years mean that novel technologies are only required for 35% of future emissions reductions. This reflects significant technological development in a number of sectors, including batteries and electrolysers.
However, the IEA emphasises that more progress is needed for a number of technologies. It notes that small, modular clean technologies, such as solar and batteries, are not sufficient to deliver net-zero emissions alone. Also, new infrastructure networks, low-emissions fuels, CO2 capture technology, nuclear power and large land areas for the deployment of renewables will all be necessary.
No room for new unabated coal plants or new ‘long-lead time’ oil and gas projects
The IEA report argues that an immediate end to new approvals of unabated coal plants is required to achieve its net-zero emissions scenario – and that there is no need for new long-lead time oil and gas projects. The rapid reduction in fossil fuel demand (down 25% by 2030 and 80% by 2050) means that current oil and gas projects are sufficient to supply all expected future demand.
However, the IEA does note that some continued investment in existing oil and gas fields is not inconsistent with a net-zero emissions scenario. It argues that it will be important to properly sequence increased investments in clean energy with decreased investments in fossil-fuel supply over time to avoid potentially damaging price spikes or demand gluts.
Watch, read, listen
IDA AFTERMATH: The 19th examined how, two years after Hurricane Ida, residents are still reeling – with women of colour disproportionately affected.
CLIMATE REFUGEES: In African Arguments, South African legal scholar Dr Cristiano d’Orsi argued that laws must be reformed to allow people fleeing from climate change to claim refugee status.
NATURE’S SECRETS: BBC Radio Four’s the Life Scientific podcast spoke to the director of London’s Kew Gardens about how lessons from nature can help the world to address climate change.
Coming up
- 30 September: Maldives presidential election (second round)
- 30 September: Slovakia parliamentary elections
- 3-6 October: UNEP Fifth forum of ministers and environment authorities of Asia Pacific, Colombo, Sri Lanka
- 4-5 October: FAO Rome water dialogues
Pick of the jobs
- Climate Outreach, communications lead (maternity cover) | Salary: £38,000-41,000. Location: Oxford, UK
- US Climate Alliance, senior climate analyst | Salary: $74,000-84,000. Location: District of Columbia, US
- World Resources Institute (WRI), climate change director | Salary: Unknown. Location: São Paulo, Brazil
DeBriefed is written in rotation by Carbon Brief’s team and edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org
The post DeBriefed 29 September 2023: Focus on carbon offsets; UK expands oil and gas; IEA’s path to 1.5C unpacked appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Özgür Özel is the leader of Turkey’s main opposition “New Party” and a member of parliament from Manisa.
The world is running out of time to deliver on the Paris Agreement. The UN Environment Programme’s latest Emissions Gap Report concludes that the chance of keeping warming below 1.5C without overshooting it is gone. Even if every country delivers its current national pledges, the planet is heading for about 2.6C of warming this century.
This is the backdrop as governments and their leaders gather in Antalya for COP31, ten years after the Paris Agreement took effect. Turkey lies in the Mediterranean, one of the regions most exposed to climate change, and hosting the summit is a real opportunity.
It is also a responsibility, and that responsibility begins at home. The world does not lack targets. What it has lacked – almost everywhere – is delivery. If Antalya is remembered for anything, it should be for shifting the focus from what countries promise to what they actually do.
For many people in Turkey, the climate crisis is already part of daily life. In 2021, forests in Manavgat, a district of Antalya, burned for more than a week. Last year, wildfires forced more than 50,000 people from their homes around the western coast city of Izmir. This October, Istanbul had its heaviest rainfall in more than 80 years, with the floods killing at least eight people.
COP31 Briefing: What to expect from the Antalya climate summit?
Electrification, the fossil fuel transition, adaptation to rising impacts, climate science and trade are key themes as governments gather for COP31 in TürkiyeBrazil’s fossil fuel roadmap sketches out first global timetable
The COP30 presidency’s voluntary timetable asks countries to plan first, then build up clean energy – only turning to oil and gas supplies from 2031
Measurable outcomes
Two weeks of climate negotiations cannot deliver everything that is needed to resolve the crisis, but COP31 can push for a few things that can be measured. The first is a voluntary fossil-fuel transition roadmap, with national milestones for 2030 and 2035 reported in the same format every year.
The second is a stronger commitment to protecting forests, with progress tracked over time. The third is yearly reporting on progress towards the agreed $1.3 trillion a year in climate finance by 2035, backed by a financial roadmap.
On adaptation, the indicators agreed in Belém should become funded national plans. By COP32, we should be able to see how many countries have an adaptation plan and the financial commitment behind each one.
Regional resilience partnership
The summit also has an unusual shape. Turkey hosts, Australia leads the negotiations, and the Pacific island nations play a central role. Climate diplomacy now sits at the centre of energy security, trade and development, and Turkey, which bridges developed and developing economies, is well placed to help build consensus between them. The lasting value of its presidency will depend on the practical partnerships it leaves behind.
One such partnership could connect two very different regions. On a map, the Mediterranean and the Pacific seem to have little in common, but their problems look similar: eroding coastlines, salt creeping into aquifers, failing harvests, fishing towns with fewer fish.
Turkey and Australia could launch a Mediterranean–Pacific Climate Resilience Partnership, linking coastal cities, scientists, institutions including development banks and island governments. It does not need a new bureaucracy. It can start with a few projects: shared satellite data and early-warning systems, better coastal flood defences, and trials of water-saving farming in the communities most at risk. What matters is visible results on the ground, not a ceremony.
Turkey’s track record
Turkey does have progress to point to. It has committed to net zero by 2053, and its solar and wind capacity has grown fast. The sunshine, the wind and the industrial base are all there. But the long-term direction of the energy mix is still unclear.
Turkey also signed the Glasgow Leaders’ Declaration on Forests and Land Use at COP26, pledging to halt and reverse forest loss by 2030. With four years left, COP31 is a chance to show how that promise will be kept.
COP30 roadmap says faster use of existing tools can halt forest loss by 2030
And while the summit celebrates zero waste, Turkey took in more than half a million tons of European plastic waste last year, much of it bound for Mersin and Adana. On November 21, the day after COP31 closes, an EU ban on plastic-waste exports to non-OECD countries takes effect. Turkey, as an OECD member, is exempt. That should worry us more than it seems to.
None of this will carry much weight unless Turkey’s own record holds up. A leadership at odds with its own environment and its own citizens will struggle to inspire global confidence in its commitment to protecting the planet.
Threat to local climate action
Cities are where adaptation happens. Water, flood protection, waste and urban planning fall largely to municipalities. That is why the imprisonment and removal of more than 50 elected opposition mayors, including the mayor of Istanbul, matter for environment and climate policy, as well as for democracy.
When local leadership is disrupted, investment plans stall and work on flood defences and water supplies loses continuity. As a result, local governments are left paralysed.
Comment: From Australia to Chile, our cities are driving a green investment boom
Inconsistent policymaking when it comes to the environment and climate deepens the problem in Turkey as it does in other countries. A few practical steps would make a real difference.
Set out a gradual, well-planned energy transition. Stop new construction in streambeds and drinking-water basins and put zoning maps online. Inspect every imported plastic shipment and cap total imports. Hold public hearings on environmental impact assessments before permits are issued, not after. And publish an independently audited climate scorecard each year covering emissions, renewables capacity, forest loss and adaptation spending.
This could set an example beyond Turkey. Many emerging economies are trying to cut emissions while protecting jobs and keeping industry competitive. Digital tools and artificial intelligence are already available to help forecast wildfire risk, reduce grid losses and track water use.
With the 1.5C limit now set to be breached, Antalya’s success will be measured by the greenhouse gases avoided, the investments delivered and the forests still standing in the years that follow. It is our responsibility to watch closely and see whether those commitments are delivered, transparently and in line with international standards.
The post Turkey must make COP31 a turning point for global climate action appeared first on Climate Home News.
Turkey must make COP31 a turning point for global climate action
As oil companies pull out of Argentina’s oil heartland in the Patagonian province of Chubut, workers and communities are struggling to secure their future, with little say in the decisions being made about it.
“The impacted are fragmented, the exploiters organised,” said José Glinski, a member of parliament from the province.
In Comodoro Rivadavia, where Argentina’s oil industry began in 1907, those words carry particular weight. For nearly 120 years, oil has shaped the city’s economy and that of Chubut province, which helped power Argentina for decades. Now the companies that built their fortunes there are shifting their investments elsewhere, threatening an economy that has depended on oil for generations.
Argentina’s national oil company, YPF, whose roots lie in Comodoro Rivadavia, is selling off its mature oilfields in the region to concentrate investment in the shale oil and gas reserves of Vaca Muerta, further north. According to Glinski, around 10,000 direct jobs have gone in Chubut, and unemployment has climbed from 2% to 10% in a single year.
“And this while all remaining companies have kept extremely high levels of profit,” he said.
COP31 Briefing: What to expect from the Antalya climate summit?
Glinski blames government policy as much as the companies. “Companies are choosing to leave and the government lets them do so, while weakening tax and environmental regulations, leaving the city without the necessary income to organise the transition.”
Nobody has yet worked out who will clean up the old fields and more than 6,000 wells, look after the workers who remain, or pay for whatever comes next.
Comodoro Rivadavia is not alone. From Mejillones and Tocopilla in Chile to La Guajira in Colombia and Appalachia in the United States, from Scotland to Mpumalanga in South Africa and East Kalimantan in Indonesia, places built around fossil fuels for generations face some version of the same problem. As investment moves elsewhere, plans to protect workers, support communities and repair damaged land often lag far behind, if they exist at all.
Building an economy beyond fossil fuels
In Comodoro, as locals call the city, the community has not been passively waiting for oil to run out.
“We have looked into multiple alternatives for the territory, including building on geothermal capacity, an agricultural programme that could reinforce food security and focus on cultures that are not too water dependent, and exploring also aquaculture built on local species,” explained Ruben Zárate, who heads Comodoro Conocimiento, a public agency created by the municipality to develop economic opportunities. “The only alternative is economic diversification.”
But having ideas is one thing. Finding the money and securing the political support to put them into practice is another. In many countries, decisions that shape a region’s economy are made in the capital or in company boardrooms, and local authorities have little say, and few resources, when a major employer pulls out.
Glinski points to deals struck at the national level that leave communities without a meaningful say in decisions affecting their future.
“Some of the barriers relate to the absence of regulation of private actors which have negotiated conditions at the national level that prevent provinces or territories from capturing benefits that could be useful to fund the transition,” he said. “Comodoro had no voice in these deals.”
One example is Argentina’s Large Investment Incentive Regime, known as RIGI, which offers substantial tax benefits and regulatory guarantees to major investors. Argentina’s Fundación Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (FARN) has warned that this regime could also give large projects preferential access to water and energy at the expense of local communities and businesses, making it harder for regions to diversify their economies.
At root, it’s a question of power: who controls the money and the decisions, and whether the people who kept these industries running for generations have any control over what comes next.
“Comodoro, like most territories that developed around fossil fuels, is heavily dependent. Everyone knew the oil business would end, but none planned for it,” said Antonella Risso, a climate expert and community member. “Comodoro deserves a bright future. Its people have the capacity to chart a future for its next hundred years – a real Just Transition”.
What COP31 could do
Last year in Belém, governments agreed to develop a Just Transition Mechanism. At COP31 in Antalya they will negotiate how it should work, and civil society is pushing for a strong Belém-Antalya Mechanism (BAM) that can help channel resources for action on the ground.
Camila Mercure, a climate policy officer with FARN and a coordinator of CAN’s Just Transition working group, said, “For a city like Comodoro Rivadavia, the BAM could mean support to develop diversification plans, assess viable alternatives, and access public, grant-based finance to put them into practice.”
“Workers and communities must have a meaningful role in shaping these plans, building on local knowledge and priorities. The aim should be to create decent livelihoods beyond fossil fuels and avoid alternatives that reproduce the same economic dependence, inequalities and environmental harm,” she said.
Why COP31 needs to start talking about just transition finance
The BAM could also put regions in touch with each other. Officials in Patagonia, northern Chile, Mpumalanga or East Kalimantan are wrestling with many of the same questions, and sharing what has worked would spare them from starting from scratch.
Then there are the companies. Fossil fuel producers should not be able to walk away from their workers, their environmental obligations and the towns that depended on them. The BAM could help regions share experiences and develop ways to hold companies accountable, ensuring they plan ahead and pay their fair share of the transition costs.
In Comodoro Rivadavia, the transition has already begun, without the community’s consent and with little support. COP31 is a chance to help places like it plan ahead, before the last company leaves rather than after.
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