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global mining capex and net zero

The mining industry is emblematic of economic cycles, surging during booms and contracting in busts. According to data from S&P Global in 2023, the capital expenditure (capex) of the world’s 30 leading mining companies is predicted to grow by 6.2%, summing up to an impressive $109.2 billion. This uptick trails the hikes of 13.8% and 16.3% in 2021 and 2022 respectively.

However, it’s important to note that this projection is still significantly below the 2013 peak of $145.7 billion.

Why is this relevant? It illustrates that these giants of industry may yet have considerable runway before reaching their zenith of expansion endeavors. 

As the years advance, miners will grapple with mounting inflation, rising interest rates, and decelerating economic activities. This challenging financial landscape might lead to a slight dip in capex, by 1.8% in 2024 and a further 0.7% in 2025.

Global Miners’ Capex and Net Zero Targets 

Several pivotal players dominate the scene, including the following mining giants. Each of the miners set their own net zero targets, with increasing commitment to sustainable mining.

BHP Group Ltd.

Earmarking $7.6 billion for 2023, the miner particularly focuses on its Jansen mine in Canada. BHP’s long-term strategy integrates operational decarbonization, allocating a sizable budget of $4 billion towards this cause by 2030. 

Just like ArcelorMittal, BHP also doesn’t include Scope 3 emissions in its 30% reduction target by 2030 versus 2020 levels. It only covers operational emissions or Scope 1 and 2, including methane emission reductions. BHP aims to achieve net zero emissions by 2050.

Rio Tinto Group

With a capex guidance of $7.4 billion in 2023, Rio Tinto aims to enhance its projects like the Simandou iron ore deposit in Guinea and the Salar del Rincon lithium project in Argentina. Their longer-term vision is growth-centric, targeting a hefty investment of up to $10 billion for 2024 and 2025.

The mining company aimed for net zero emissions by 2050, in alignment with the Paris Agreement. To achieve this goal, the company sets a 15% reduction in direct and indirect emissions by 2025, and 50% by 2030, based on the 2018 levels. 

Vale SA

Vale plans to allocate around $6 billion in 2023, distributing funds across a variety of projects, including the Onca Puma mine’s furnace and the ramp-up of the Serra Sul operation.

The mining firm aims to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, while seeking to slash scope 1 and 2 emissions by 33% by 2030. It also plans to reduce scope net emissions by 15% by 2035. Last year, the miner emitted a total of over 486 million tonnes of CO2e, 98% of which accounted for Scope 3 emissions.

Anglo American PLC

The mining giant adjusts its 2023 capex vision to $6.0 billion, with an emphasis on projects like the Woodsmith polyhalite venture in the UK and the ramp-up related to the Quellaveco copper mine in Peru. 

Anglo American aims to reduce net GHGs emissions by 30% against the 2016 baseline by 2030. The miner also has set a lofty goal of becoming carbon neutral, for Scope 1 and 2, across operations by 2040. This climate goal also entails slashing Scope 3 emissions by 50% by the same period.

Glencore PLC

Glencore projects an investment of approximately $4.8 billion in 2023, channeling funds towards diverse projects like the Collahuasi copper joint venture in Chile and the Zhairem zinc project in Kazakhstan. 

In the short term, Glencore plans to reduce emissions across all three scopes by 15% by 2026 and 50% by 2035 against its 2019 base year. In the long-term, the mining major aims to reach net zero emissions by 2050 same as most of the others.  

Posco Holdings Inc.

This giant miner demonstrates a commitment to sustainability, emphasizing eco-friendly ventures. With a projected capex of approximately $4.8 billion in 2023, Posco’s goals include magnifying its production of cathode, anode, and lithium materials by 2030.

Same with Vale, Posco also committed to reach carbon neutrality or net zero by 2050. Its net zero roadmap says it will cut emissions gradually – 10% by 2030, 50% by 2040, and net zero by 2050. The baseline level is total emissions from 2017-2019. Alongside carbon abatement efforts, the mining firm also set a goal to achieve avoided emissions by 10% by 2030.

ArcelorMittal SA

ArcelorMittal commits between $4.5 billion and $5 billion to capex. Using various levers, ArcelorMittal seeks to achieve a 25% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030. That includes Scopes 1 and 2 only, excluding Scope 3 emissions.

Plus, the miner is aiming to be the world’s first full-scale zero carbon emissions steel plant in Sestao by 2025, and reach net zero by 2050, too.

mining giants capex and net zero
CAPEX data from S & P Global

Profit and Planet in One Mine

The cumulative capex of the top ten mining conglomerates is forecasted to comprise a substantial 50.8% of the overall capex of the top 30 miners in 2023. While projections reveal robust financial performance in 2023, there’s an underlying quandary these titans face. 

As global demands evolve, the mainstay for miners will pivot towards critical metals, transition to clean energy, and operational decarbonization. The question remains: can these behemoths navigate these treacherous waters successfully, balancing both profit and planet?

As the mining industry accelerates its capital investments, the terrain becomes increasingly multifaceted. As they dig deep, these global giants must strike a harmonious balance, ensuring sustainable growth, adapting to an ever-evolving market, and fostering a commitment to a greener planet. Only time will reveal if these mountains of industry can unearth a golden future.

The post Global Mining Expanding Capex and Committing to Net Zero appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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Carbon Footprint

Insetting vs Offsetting: Which Actually Counts Toward Your Scope 3 Targets

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The accounting differences that decide whether your nature investment shows up in inventory, in BVCM, or nowhere at all.

The question reaches a procurement team about three weeks before the next sustainability committee meeting. Someone has read about insetting. Someone else has just signed off on an offset purchase. The CSO wants to know if the two are interchangeable. The answer is no, and the GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard is the reason why.

This article walks through what each term means at audit-grade specificity, what the standards actually say about how each gets counted, and how to decide which tool fits which target. The insetting vs offsetting question is one of the most-searched in corporate climate strategy, and one of the most poorly answered. By the end of this piece, you should be able to brief a committee on the difference without notes.

The two definitions, in plain English

Offsetting means buying carbon credits generated outside your value chain and retiring them against your residual emissions. The reduction happens somewhere else, financed by you, and the credit is the receipt.

Insetting means investing in emission reductions or removals inside your own value chain, typically with suppliers, where the reduction is directly linked to the products and services you buy. The reduction happens inside the boundary of your Scope 3 inventory, and the accounting treatment is fundamentally different.

The shorthand from the University of Oxford’s Nature-based Insetting Initiative is useful: insetting is what you do with the supply chain you have; offsetting is what you do with the supply chain you do not have.

What the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard actually says

The GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard, finalised in 2024 after a multi-year pilot, sets the rules for how land-based emission reductions and removals enter corporate inventories. The Standard distinguishes between inventory accounting (Scope 1, 2, and 3) and project or intervention accounting (a separate methodology for crediting).

For insetting, the practical implication is that supplier-level interventions, when properly measured and attributed, can reduce your Scope 3 category 1 (purchased goods and services) emissions in your inventory. The reduction is not a credit retired against the inventory; it is a lower inventory number, period.

For offsetting, the credit is retired separately. It can be reported as a contribution toward a net-zero claim under the SBTi Beyond Value Chain Mitigation framework or as part of a VCMI Carbon Integrity claim, but it does not lower the inventory number.

A practical consequence: if your Science Based Target requires a 50% absolute reduction in Scope 3 emissions by 2030, insetting moves you toward the target. Offsetting does not. This single point of difference reshapes the procurement decision.

When insetting counts toward Scope 3 (and when it does not)

Insetting counts toward Scope 3 only when several conditions are met:

  • The intervention must occur with an entity in your value chain.
  • The emissions reduction or removal must be measured against a defensible baseline.
  • The reduction must be attributed to your share of that supplier’s output, not double-counted with other buyers.
  • It must follow the inventory accounting rules in the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard, not the project accounting rules used to generate credits.

The most common failure mode is double counting. If your supplier sells the same reduction as a credit on the voluntary market and also reports it to you as a Scope 3 reduction, the math breaks. The Standard requires you to address this risk, typically by purchasing and retiring the supplier-issued credit as part of your inventory or by contractual provisions that prevent the supplier from selling the reduction twice.

When insetting does not count toward Scope 3: when the intervention sits with a supplier you do not buy from, when the baseline is not defensible, when the attribution is unclear, or when the documentation does not survive audit. Those cases default to Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, which is still useful but operates on a different ledger.

The procurement and supplier engagement question

Insetting is harder than offsetting. That is the unfashionable truth most buyers eventually confront. Offsetting is a transaction; insetting is a relationship.

To run an insetting program, you need supplier mapping precise enough to know which farms or facilities sit at which Scope 3 boundary. You need an engagement model that gets suppliers to participate, which usually requires multi-year commitments and shared economics. You need an MRV architecture that measures the right things and produces audit-ready documentation. And you need a contractual structure that prevents double counting and protects both sides.

The trade-off you receive in return is significant. Reductions count against your inventory rather than your residual. Supplier relationships deepen, which protects sourcing continuity. Yield and quality improvements often follow regenerative interventions, which reduces your input cost over time. And the regulatory file, under CSRD, CSDDD, EUDR, and the SBTi FLAG Guidance, is materially stronger.

Choosing the right tool for the right target

A practical decision rule. If your target is a science-based Scope 3 reduction and you operate in a FLAG sector or source FLAG commodities, insetting is the structurally correct tool. If your target is a net-zero claim that includes neutralising hard-to-abate residual emissions outside your value chain, BVCM via high-integrity offsets is the structurally correct tool. Most companies with material Scope 3 exposure need both, in different proportions, sequenced over time.

The sequencing matters. Insetting takes longer to stand up but produces a permanent reduction in the inventory. Offsetting can be transacted faster but does not change the inventory and now sits under tighter claim restrictions. Treat them as complementary tools with different jobs, not as substitutes. The Accountability Framework Initiative and the IUCN Global Standard for Nature-based Solutions both provide useful guardrails for the insetting side, with biodiversity, human rights, and benefit-sharing requirements that go beyond carbon math.

If you are mapping a Scope 3 reduction roadmap and need to scope which interventions count toward your inventory versus which sit in Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, the carbon and sustainability experts at Carbon Credit Capital can help you structure a nature-based supply chain investment program that fits your FLAG exposure, your target architecture, and your audit horizon. Schedule a consultation.

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Carbon Footprint

Net zero needs nature: a carbon credit guide

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Net zero is often described as a balancing act: cut what you can, account for the rest, and reach zero on the ledger. That framing is useful, but it leaves something out. It treats every tonne of carbon as interchangeable and every route to zero as equally sound, while the science tells a more specific story.

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Carbon Footprint

Deforestation in Malawi: causes and solutions

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Malawi has lost a striking share of its forests over the past three decades. Woodlands that once covered well over a third of the country now cover less than a quarter, and the pressure on what remains is increasing. Behind those figures sit two practical questions: what is driving the loss, and what reverses it?

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