Monica Ngambi was born in Zambia’s copper-rich northern province as the nation declared its independence on 24 October 1964. For 60 years, she has lived by the large copper mines on which the independent country tied its economic prosperity.
But as miners scarred the land to extract the metal – at times polluting water sources and destroying farmland – local people have reaped few of the benefits.
Today, Ngambi doesn’t earn enough selling groundnuts and cassava at a market in the mining town of Chingola to feed her family.
Chingola sits atop one of the world’s largest reserves of copper – a reddish metal that is particularly good at conducting heat and electricity and is pivotal to the world’s clean energy transition.
But Ngambi, who barely earns 100 Zambian Kwacha (about $4) a week, survives thanks to a cooperative of market traders, who pool funds to buy food. Her neighbourhood doesn’t have access to clean water, and local people buy chlorine to purify the water from shallow wells.
“We don’t know how our children’s grandchildren will live. We need… a real future,” she told Climate Home News.
In 2022, Zambia was the world’s top exporter of raw copper, selling $6.6 billion worth of the unprocessed metal. The same year, nearly two-thirds of Zambia’s population lived in extreme poverty.
Intense Chinese and Western interest in Zambia’s copper resources, however, has renewed the promise of using the mineral to lift people out of poverty, free the country from debt and meet its development goals. Mining investments have soared as the government seeks to massively boost copper output and add value to its resources by processing the metal for the electric vehicle (EV) industry.
But analysts warn that delivering on the ambitious plans while ensuring local people benefit requires the nation to address its large informal mining economy, end an opaque tax regime and deliver legislative efforts to better regulate the sector.
In Chingola, that will mean clamping down on a dangerous – and sometimes violent – illegal industry that sees gangs of youths scavenge and supply raw copper to small-scale Chinese processors.
Open for business
Zambia is Africa’s second-largest copper producer after the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Its economy depends on the metal, which accounts for around 70% of its export earnings.
Moving away from climate-warming fossil fuels and slashing greenhouse gas emissions requires the electrification of global power, transport and heating systems – none of which is possible without copper.
Copper is needed to manufacture everything from EV motors and batteries to solar power wiring and cables for energy storage and distribution networks.
As a result, soaring demand for the metal is soon expected to outstrip supply. The International Energy Agency has warned the world could see a 30% copper deficit by 2035, with more investments required to scale copper production than any other transition mineral.
To capture a slice of this booming market, the Zambian government has set out highly ambitious plans to quadruple copper output to three million tonnes annually by 2031. It recently launched a high-resolution aerial geological survey of the country to determine mineral deposits across its ten provinces – the first comprehensive mapping exercise since 1972.
To deliver on its growth plans, the government is wooing international investors to inject capital into the country’s ageing mining infrastructure, with some success.
Between 2022 and the end of June 2024, Zambia received mining investment pledges exceeding $7 billion for new and expansion projects, according to the World Bank.
Among Zambia’s flagship new investors is KoBold Metals, an AI-powered critical mineral exploration start-up, which is backed by Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos and is mooted to spend upwards of $2 billion on mining a vast copper deposit it recently discovered north of Chingola.
Over a few days in October, in a leafy neighbourhood of the capital Lusaka, government officials, investors, mining experts and company representatives gathered for the Zambia Mining and Investment Insaka – the country’s first international mining conference.
The event took stock of the impacts of a century of mining and pitched the nation’s mining opportunities to global mining companies and investors.
“We believe we have natural resources that can change the economy of this country,” Paul Kabuswe, Zambia’s mines minister, told the conference. But years of repeated policy changes created uncertainty in the mining sector, which hurt investments, he said. “All we needed were good policies that make investors comfortable,” said Kabuswe.
Since coming to power in 2021, the government has sought to develop a tax regime which is “stable, predictable and competitive“ to drive investments and scale mining output.
Mining companies have responded positively. Chinese firms, which have invested more than $3.5 billion in Zambia’s mining industry since the late 1990s, are planning to invest an additional $5 billion into the sector over the next five years, Li Zhanyan, chair of the Chinese Mining Enterprises Association, told the conference.
Shadow mines
The copper-rich soils under Chingola gave the province its name: the Copperbelt.
For close to a century, the metal was extracted in some of the continent’s largest open-pit mines.
After Zambia’s independence, copper mining companies were gradually nationalised. Revenues from copper exports were used to boost public and development spending: the sector created jobs, and helped fund hospitals, healthcare facilities and education scholarships.
Chingola thrived. “Even those who didn’t work at the mines felt secure,” remembered Ngambi.
But by the early 1990s, President Frederick Chiluba had sold off the mines to private companies, including foreign firms, to withstand a long-term decline in copper prices and an economic depression. Jobs were cut and Chingola’s fortunes faded.
Whether renewed large-scale foreign investments can help clean up and modernise Zambia’s mining sector remains to be seen. Today, the country’s copper extraction relies partially on a parallel informal mining economy, fuelled by high youth unemployment, which has grown up to sustain the livelihoods of thousands of people.
Across the Copperbelt, gangs of young artisanal miners, known as Jerabos, scavenge copper scraps and mining waste known as tailings – dangerous work, which often turns deadly.
Without formal training or safety gear, the Jerabos dig tunnels hundreds of metres underground with minimal lighting and no structural reinforcements. They risk exposure to toxic waste and death if the tunnels cave-in.
an illegal mining gang in Chingola
an illegal mining gang in Chingola
Over a 10-day period when Climate Home was reporting in the area in October 2024, ten men from Chingola died in both legal and illegal mining operations, local police officers told us.
Edward Kapungwe joined Chingola’s Jerabos at just 20 years old. Danger, he told Climate Home, is part of the job. But the work pays.
“We have a ready market – the Chinese,” he said, describing a network of buyers, some of whom operate unauthorised and makeshift smelters under trees.
This informal economy often fuels gang violence in Chingola, as rival groups compete for control over illegal copper trading networks, leading to frequent clashes over mining sites and smuggling routes.
To tap into this vast workforce, the government wants to formalise the work of thousands of young illegal miners.
“We are working towards giving artisan licences to the youths so that they can legally mine and contribute to the tax base,” Raphael Chimupi, Chingola’s district commissioner, told Climate Home.
The increasing presence of mini processing plants, often run by Chinese companies, which purchase copper ore from unlicensed miners, indirectly encourages illegal mining activities, he added.
In response, the government is advancing legislation to prohibit the purchase of illegally mined copper through a licensing system which will help establish a more regulated and transparent supply chain, Chimupi said.
But campaigners at Transparency International have raised concerns the government’s dual approach of reforming the informal sector while turbocharging production could undermine governance reforms.
A node in the EV battery supply chain
To better capitalise on its resources, the mineral-rich but debt-laden nation has set out plans to shift away from exporting raw copper and to refine minerals domestically.
The move is part of Zambia’s plans to process its copper into high-value battery-grade metals, becoming a vital node in the continent’s aspiring EV supply chain.
In late 2022, the US, Zambia and the DRC agreed to support the development of a joint EV battery supply chain across the two African nations that would cover mining, processing, manufacturing and assembly, sparking hope for further value addition on their soil.
The DRC holds abundant reserves of copper and 70% of the world’s reserves of cobalt, another pivotal battery material.
While US President Donald Trump’s support for the initiative agreed under his predecessor is uncertain, Kabuswe told the mining summit that Zambia and the DRC are working to develop a battery manufacturing supply chain. “This transition would create jobs and bring substantial economic benefits to our communities,” he said, calling for the negotiations with the DRC to move forward.
Chingola is earmarked as a potential site for an EV battery production plant and the plans have brought hope to the mining town.
Mulenga Pascal Bwalya arrived in Chingola in 1965 a young and ambitious man with a job in the copper mining industry. Decades later and now retired, Bwalya said the rise of EVs could mark a U-turn in Zambia’s struggle to add value to its resources.
“Copper is one of the valuable components of electric vehicles. I pray that those will be assembled here one day, ensuring technology transfer, creating employment for our people and fostering a prosperous Zambia,” he said.
From raw resources to processed wealth
Anticipating a jump in production, the US and China are reviving two major railway projects to join the landlocked nation to the sea and get Zambia’s mineral resources to their own markets.
To the west, the US is supporting the Lobito Corridor, a massive railway project linking the DRC to the Angolan port of Lobito, which previously received Chinese investment. A new 830-kilometre section would extend the railway to Chingola in Zambia’s Copperbelt.
The railway, which has received financing exceeding $1 billion, has been designed to create a faster route to export DRC and Zambia’s minerals. It will reduce the journey time from 45 days using the existing road corridor to the South African port of Durban to just seven days, lowering export costs and cutting emissions, according to the project’s developers.
The Biden administration backed the rehabilitation of the Angolan section of the railway with a $553-million loan but it is unclear to what extent Trump will support the project. Yet, KoBold Metals has already committed to use the railway to export 300,000 tons of copper and related freight annually.
To the east, China is revamping the Tazara railway, which links Zambia’s Copperbelt to the Tanzanian port of Dar es Salaam. Plans to link the two rail projects would create a huge network of infrastructure to facilitate trade across the continent.
Both projects have the potential to massively boost Zambia’s copper exports. But experts caution they could serve as fast lanes for exporting raw minerals if the resources are not processed domestically before they are shipped.
“The development of the Lobito Corridor and the modernisation of Tazara are important for Zambia’s mining sector. But we must ensure that these projects focus on refining and value addition,” Ashu Sagar, president of the Zambia Association of Manufacturers, told the mining conference.
“If these transport corridors are used solely to export raw copper, we risk losing out on the full economic potential that comes with value-added products,” he said.
KoBold didn’t answer Climate Home’s questions about whether it plans to process the copper it is set to start commercially mining in 2026 in the country.
An estimated 20% of Zambia’s copper is processed domestically, according to Zamefa, the nation’s sole copper processor. Raw copper is exported for processing, mostly to China, which refines the majority of the world’s minerals for producing clean energy technologies.
But some plans are afoot to process minerals in Zambia, including Africa’s first cobalt sulphate refinery to supply battery grade cobalt for EVs.
For the many, not the few
Civil society groups in Zambia have long demanded more accountability in the country’s mining sector so it maximises revenues, benefits local communities and helps finance local development.
OpenNet For All Zambia, a local NGO, has pointed to secretive mining contracts and an opaque tax regime with loopholes allowing companies to underreport earnings as part of the problem that keeps wealth from communities.
“Mining must contribute to the social fabric, not just corporate profits,” Sipho Mwanza, the NGO’s executive director, told Climate Home.
“These opaque systems make it difficult for the government to monitor and collect the fair share of revenues from the sector, often resulting in substantial revenue losses for the country,” he warned.
“Zambia’s mining sector needs to be accountable,” agreed Edward Lange, of the Southern Africa Resource Watch, which monitors resource extraction in the region. He told Climate Home that fair taxation policies, stricter corporate social responsibility laws and local value addition are essential to retain more mining wealth in the country.
Lange welcomed the government’s legislative push to create a more transparent and better regulated mining sector.
This includes plans to reduce foreign dominance, increase Zambian ownership through a local content requirement, and ensure the country benefits more from its vast mineral resources by establishing a public investment company that will control at least 30% of mineral production from future mines.
“By focusing on these fair and equitable policies, Zambia has the potential to improve its national economy, increase job creation, and ensure that its resources benefit the local population while still attracting foreign investment,” said Lange.
“Our resources should not be a curse,” he added, “but uplift our communities.”
Main image: Artisanal miners look for copper in mining waste
The post Ending poverty and gangs: How Zambia seeks to cash in on the global drive for EVs appeared first on Climate Home News.
Ending poverty and gangs: How Zambia seeks to cash in on the global drive for EVs
Climate Change
DeBriefed 3 July 2026: US faces scorching Independence Day | Record ocean temperatures | Vietnam’s EV surge
Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
Heating up
NOT FREE FROM HEAT: “Dangerous, record-breaking” heat altered plans for 4 July celebrations across the US this weekend, reported the Associated Press. New York and Boston hit 100F (37.8C) on Thursday, said the newswire. CNBC reported that temperatures of up to 105F (40.5C) are forecast in central and eastern parts of the country, with “daily, monthly and all-time records possible”.
TEMPERATURES SOAR: Heat that hit western Europe last week spread east to “scorch” Germany, Hungary, Romania, Poland and others, said Bloomberg. Red warnings for extreme heat were issued in a number of nations, noted the outlet, adding that the heat “underscores how climate change is transforming summers in the world’s fastest-warming continent”. The Independent said last month was confirmed to be England’s hottest June on record.
HEAT DEATHS: June’s extreme temperatures caused more than 2,000 excess deaths in Spain and France, reported the Guardian. The countries are bracing for further heat that “could bring temperatures of 44C (111F) over the coming days”, said the newspaper. Deaths in France rose almost 30% at the heatwave “peak” on the week of 22 June, according to Le Monde. Last week’s conditions also led to around 480 excess deaths in the Netherlands, reported Reuters.
BOILING: Global ocean temperatures reached record levels for this time of year, reported NBC News, “fuelling fears of more dangerous heatwaves this summer and fanning concerns over the escalating global climate crisis”. Scientists told the Financial Times that this could lead the world towards “uncharted territory”. The newspaper said global average sea surface temperatures reached 20.96C on 21 June, exceeding June records for 2023 and 2024.
Around the world
- GOAL DROPPED: The World Bank will “abandon” its goal to devote 45% of annual lending resources to climate-related projects, reported Reuters. Carbon Brief explored what it could mean for global climate action.
- FIVE-YEAR PLAN: China plans to invest more than 20tn yuan ($2.9tn) in “key energy projects and new business models” over the next five years, according to International Energy Net.
- DRILLING: The Guardian said UK Labour politicians “urged” the likely next prime minister Andy Burnham to ignore “deluded” calls to develop the Rosebank oil field located in the Atlantic north of Scotland.
- PLASTIC TALKS: Countries and activists feared key issues could be sidelined at “critical” talks on a global treaty to curb plastic pollution in Kenya, said Climate Home News. A treaty could have “important implications” for climate change, reported Carbon Brief in 2024.
- CANADA PIPELINE: Canadian prime minister Mark Carney announced plans to build an oil pipeline to supply Asia with up to 1m barrels per day, reported the Financial Times. Earlier this week, Carney called the previous government’s climate plans “expensive” and “divisive”, said CBC News.
63
The number of UK newspaper editorials calling for more oil and gas extraction in the North Sea so far in 2026, according to Carbon Brief analysis.
Latest climate research
- Including emissions from permafrost thaw raises the likelihood of the Arctic becoming a net-carbon source by more than 50% at 2C of warming | Earth System Dynamics
- Net-zero scenarios relying less on carbon dioxide removals lead to fewer residual emissions, which offers greater health improvements for “non-white and low-income groups” in particular | Nature Climate Change
- Agricultural plots of land in sub-Saharan Africa owned by women face heat impacts 2-2.5 times higher than those owned by men | Nature Sustainability
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
Wind and solar were the world’s largest source of new energy in 2025, according to Carbon Brief analysis of the latest Energy Institute statistical review of world energy. Wind and solar also saw the fastest growth, up by 18% in 2025. Nevertheless, every source of energy – including coal, oil, gas, nuclear and hydro – also reached global all-time highs last year.
Spotlight
Vietnam’s EV surge
Carbon Brief explores the reasons behind soaring electric-vehicle sales in Vietnam.
Motorbikes are a constant fixture on streets across Vietnam. They pollute the air in cities and make crossing the road a feat of endurance.
But, increasingly, people are moving away from petrol-powered vehicles to save money and reduce air pollution.
Sales of electric motorbikes, scooters and mopeds more than doubled in Vietnam last year, according to a recent report from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
This identified that Vietnam has the largest electric vehicle (EV) market in south-east Asia.
Nearly one-in-five of the two-wheeled vehicles sold last year were electric, it noted, in a nation with 102 million people and 77m motorbikes.
This is “particularly impactful” given they are the main mode of transport in Vietnam, said Lam Pham, Asia energy analyst at thinktank Ember. He told Carbon Brief:
“Electrifying road transport is essential for Vietnam to achieve its net-zero target by 2050. Road transport accounted for around 86% of transport-sector emissions in 2022.”
The nation has just 6.8m cars, but this number is also climbing, partly due to EVs, with nearly 40% of new car sales being electric.
This is “above levels seen in most European countries”, noted the IEA. (The UK’s figure is around 30%.)
EV incentives
Fuel costs surged in south-east Asian countries earlier this year after the energy crisis caused by the US-Israel war on Iran.
This “accelerated” discussions from “why use EVs” to “why keep paying more for fuel”, said Dr Tham Nguyen, a lecturer at the Ho Chi Minh City campus of Australia’s Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology (RMIT) University, who has researched Vietnamese public attitudes to EVs.
But the surge is “not driven by fuel prices alone”, noted Pham.
Increased EV sales can also be attributed to a “convergence of affordability, convenience and sustainability”, Nguyen said:
“Vietnamese consumers buy EVs because they see real value with immediate personal benefits, such as cost savings and energy security, alongside long-term environmental gains.”
Government policies have also incentivised sales through registration fee exemptions and tax cuts for EVs.
Another factor is affordable EVs sold by Chinese companies and Vinfast, a Vietnamese manufacturer. The IEA report noted that Vietnam is the only country in south-east Asia with “sizeable” domestic production of accessible EVs.
Vinfast reported a 219% year-on-year increase in orders for electric motorbikes and e-bikes in the first quarter of 2026, but the company has yet to turn a profit.
Pham noted that “growing public awareness of air pollution” has also “dramatically strengthened” public support for EVs.
Future plans
Vietnam’s major cities also have plans to get drivers to go electric or turn to public transport.
The capital city Hanoi announced that it would ban fossil-fuel-powered motorbikes from a central zone this month, but this has been postponed until 2028.
Ho Chi Minh City, the nation’s largest city with more than 9.5 million people, intends to introduce low-emission zones and swap 400,000 petrol-powered motorbikes to electric by 2028.
The city’s green transport plans focus on metro lines, electric buses and e-bikes, explained RMIT associate professor Catherine Earl. She noted that walking and cycling are currently “not popular, accessible or safe for many residents in Ho Chi Minh City’s hot and humid climate”.
Looking ahead, Pham said Vietnam could focus on “purchase subsidies, financing schemes and adequate charging or battery-swapping infrastructure, to ensure lower-income riders, including delivery and ride-hailing drivers, are not negatively affected”.
Watch, read, listen
‘JUST 1%’ OF EMISSIONS: The Guardian debunked arguments that climate actions from smaller countries are “insignificant”.
DRILLING RISKS: Mongabay reported on the possible impacts oil drilling in the Amazon could have on a “little-known reef”.
HEATING UP: The BBC Climate Question podcast discussed the weather pattern El Niño and its links to climate change.
Coming up
- 7-10 July: AI for good global summit, Geneva, Switzerland
- 7-15 July: UN high-level political forum on sustainable development, New York
- 8-10 July: Ninth meeting of the board of the fund for responding to loss and damage, Manila, Philippines
Pick of the jobs
- Green Alliance, senior partnerships officer | Salary: £42,748-£47,346. Location: London
- World Vision, environment and climate action senior adviser | Salary: Unknown. Location: Kenya
- Nature Energy, interim associate or senior editor | Salary: Unknown. Location: London or Milan
- Climate Analytics, senior communications manager – climate policy (maternity cover) | Salary €60,605-€66,880. Location: Berlin
- Carbon Exchange, researcher | Salary: Unknown. Location: Hong Kong
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.
The post DeBriefed 3 July 2026: US faces scorching Independence Day | Record ocean temperatures | Vietnam’s EV surge appeared first on Carbon Brief.
The World Bank has abandoned a target for 45% of the funding it gives developing countries to be “climate finance”, following months of pressure from the Trump administration in the US.
However, a concerted effort by developed- and developing-country shareholders has seen the bank hold onto its “action plan” for tackling climate change.
The multilateral development bank (MDB) – which is headquartered in Washington DC – is the single largest provider of climate finance globally, distributing $39.2bn in 2025 alone, primarily as loans.
Amid widespread aid cuts by developed countries, the World Bank and other MDBs have previously pledged to significantly scale up their climate finance over the next decade.
Despite scrapping its central target, the bank says it will continue to support the demands of its “clients”, many of which have explicitly stated their need for climate-related investment.
Here, Carbon Brief looks at the likely impact of the World Bank’s policy shift and whether it is – as one expert puts it – “mostly a symbolic victory” for the US.
- How does the World Bank support climate action?
- Why has the World Bank abandoned its climate-finance target?
- Why is the World Bank important for international climate finance?
- How will these changes affect global climate action?
How does the World Bank support climate action?
The World Bank is the oldest and largest MDB. It is tasked by its 189 member governments – the bank’s shareholders – with supporting development projects around the world.
The US is the bank’s largest shareholder, followed, in order, by Japan, China, Germany, France and the UK.
Every year, the bank provides billions of dollars – predominantly as loans – to developing countries.
(One part of the World Bank, the International Development Association – IDA – specifically distributes grants to lower-income nations, as well as lower-interest loans.)
Through its financing, the World Bank also has an important role in “mobilising” private investments in developing countries.
In recent years, the bank has increasingly focused on helping developing countries to cut emissions and adapt their economies for climate change.
The World Bank provided $164bn in what it calls financing with climate “co-benefits” between 2020 and 2025.
The largest share of this funding – roughly one-fifth – went to clean energy and electricity access projects. Smaller shares went to areas such as public transport, water supply and sustainable farming.
As the map below shows, the largest recipients of the bank’s climate funds since 2020 have been emerging economies, such as Turkey ($10.3bn), India ($9bn) and Nigeria ($6.3bn).
Among the largest World Bank projects in recent years are two extensive programmes in India, totalling nearly $3bn, supporting renewables and green hydrogen.
Others include $1.7bn for a Pakistan hydropower project, $926m for Iraq’s railways and $803m to boost “green development” in Colombia.
Despite the bank’s major role in providing climate finance to developing countries, it has faced heavy scrutiny from climate advocates.
In particular, they have noted the dominance of loans that push developing countries further into debt. The World Bank has also been criticised for a lack of transparency around how it classifies projects as “climate-related”, as well as “over-reporting” of climate finance.
Why has the World Bank abandoned its climate-finance target?
When World Bank president Ajay Banga – nominated by former US president Joe Biden – took over the institution in 2023, there were widespread calls for MDB reform.
Many of the bank’s shareholders wanted to see billions more dollars being channelled to support climate action. Later that year, Banga announced that the bank would ensure that 45% of the bank’s funding was climate finance by 2025.
This replaced an existing target of 35% for climate finance between 2021 and 2025, which had been set out in the bank’s second climate change action plan (CCAP).
The CCAP is intended to “mainstream” climate action in the bank’s work. With it in place, the World Bank’s climate finance more than doubled from $17.2bn in 2020 to $39.2bn in 2025.
As the chart below shows, this meant the World Bank exceeded its 2025 goal, with climate-related projects making up a 48% share of total funding that year.
When Biden was replaced by Donald Trump as president in 2025, the US administration turned against international cooperation, including climate finance.
However, the US did not walk away from the World Bank, where it exerts considerable power as the largest shareholder.
With the CCAP due to expire in July 2026, the US has spent months pressuring the bank and its shareholders to weaken or abandon the plan altogether.
US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent issued a statement during the 2026 World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) spring meetings in April 2026, in which he called for “jettisoning” the 45% climate-finance target. More broadly, he said:
“We welcome the coming expiration of the CCAP and…expect the bank to immediately shift its myopic focus on climate and financing volumes to one that emphasises high-quality, durable projects.”
This vision involves a push for the World Bank to finance more fossil-fuel projects, including drilling for new gas. (The bank has committed since 2019 to stop funding upstream oil and gas projects.)
The decision on whether to continue with the CCAP was negotiated behind closed doors by the board of directors – representing national shareholders. There were reports of “deep divides”.
A joint statement from 19 of the 25 directors last year affirmed the need for both a plan and a target. The US, Russia, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia all declined to sign up, while Japan and India abstained, according to Reuters.
There were reports of European nations championing a climate plan, bolstered by support from the developing countries that would stand to receive climate finance. The US call to drop the 45% target entirely was reportedly backed by Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Ultimately, the day before the CCAP was due to lapse, the World Bank announced what appeared to be a middle ground. It would drop both the 45% target and the 35% goal it had replaced, while also “extend[ing]” the CCAP.
UK development minister Jenny Chapman told a committee hearing in the House of Commons the next day that this marked a “compromise”. She said:
“It wasn’t clear we were going to get a CCAP at all and a bank without an action plan on climate is a problem for us – so that’s a good outcome.”
Supportive shareholders had been pushing for a one-year extension of the plan. While the World Bank did not initially define the length, Chapman confirmed on LinkedIn that the plan had, in fact, been extended “indefinitely”.
The bank said it would also engage an “independent evaluation group” to assess the CCAP, in line with a board request.
Gaia Larsen, director of climate finance at the World Resources Institute (WRI), tells Carbon Brief that this evaluation will likely be “relatively free from political ideology” and could be “focused on how to make the CCAP more effective”.
Why is the World Bank important for international climate finance?
Under the Paris Agreement, developed countries – including major World Bank shareholders in Europe and elsewhere – are obliged to provide climate finance for developing countries.
This includes a target of $300bn a year by 2035, which is expected to largely come from developed countries. One significant way these nations can contribute to this goal is via their support for MDBs, particularly the World Bank.
The World Bank has described itself as “by far the largest provider of climate finance to developing countries”. Each year, it oversees half of all climate finance from MDBs and far more than any single donor country.
Many developed countries have, therefore, enthusiastically backed the World Bank’s climate efforts, as well as a “bigger” role for MDBs in development more broadly. The bank can lend sums that far exceed the amount of new public finance that individual nations are willing to commit.
This is particularly significant, given many of these nations, including the UK, Germany and France, have announced large cuts to their aid budgets in recent years.
Carbon Brief analysis suggests that roughly a fifth of the international climate finance provided and “mobilised” by developed countries in recent years can be attributed to their World Bank contributions, as the chart below shows.
(This only accounts for the World Bank financing that can be linked to developed-country shares in the bank. Developing countries, such as China, also have significant shares, which are not included in the chart below.)
MDBs – including the World Bank – have committed to providing $120bn in climate finance to developing countries by 2030.
This was set to come from greater shareholder contributions, combined with a programme of reforms to free up capital.
If the World Bank continued to provide half of the MDB total, it would need to increase its climate finance by around 50%, from $39.2bn today to $60bn in 2030.
Therefore, experts see a “key” role for the World Bank in achieving not only the $300bn target, but also the more aspirational $1.3n target that countries agreed as part of the “new collective quantified goal” (NCQG) on climate finance at COP29 in 2024. This includes the private capital it could “unlock” through its lending.
Joe Thwaites, international climate finance director at Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), tells Carbon Brief that these “NCQG politics” are “quite important”. He says:
“The maths of the $300bn does not work if the MDBs pull back and so I think that’s why you’re seeing developed countries taking a stand.”
How will these changes affect global climate action?
To date, the World Bank has only released minimal details about its new climate plans. As such, experts say the impact on future climate finance remains uncertain.
Jon Sward, environment project manager at the Bretton Woods Project, tells Carbon Brief:
“They have said they are going to retain all the same processes about climate-finance reporting. So, of course, there is a world in which, actually, climate finance continues to increase like it has been.”
Some of the World Bank’s internal organisations will, in fact, keep their climate-finance goals for the time being. For example, the IDA’s largely grant-based funding retains a 45% target for its current round, which will last until 2028 – the year of the next US presidential election.
However, WRI’s Larsen tells Carbon Brief that the changes, from a bank that was previously a “champion for climate action”, remain significant:
“This reality, reinforced by the elimination of the 45% goal, means that it would not be surprising to see a reduction in climate investments.”
In a statement, the World Bank said its “work on climate is and will remain firmly client driven”, noting that it supports nations undertaking their Paris Agreement climate plans.
Therefore, its climate focus may come down to whether there is demand for climate action from “client” countries receiving finance.
At an April event in discussion with the climate sceptic Bjørn Lomborg, Bessent said that global financial institutions should focus on growth, characterising climate action as an “elite belief”.
The implication from the US Treasury secretary was that recipient countries are not interested in climate action. However, as reported by Devex, a group of World Bank shareholders representing nearly 100 developing countries, wrote a letter that appeared to push back against this framing.
This “G11+” group, led by Brazil and China, said the bank “must remain firmly client-driven”, noting that countries are “following nationally determined pathways toward climate action”. NRDC’s Thwaites tells Carbon Brief:
“It’s one thing for the Europeans to talk about climate…This was the client countries [100 developing countries] saying: ‘No, we want this.’”
Recent research by the ODI thinktank found that 79% of developing-country officials polled wanted to see MDB investment in solar projects, 54% wanted hydropower and 47% wanted wind power. Only 13% wanted investment in gas-power plants.
Rishikesh Ram Bhandary, a senior development researcher at Boston University, has stressed the need for an “enhanced CCAP”, which could be supported by the bank’s new independent evaluation. Among other things, he tells Carbon Brief:
“The bank needs to make a more convincing case about how climate change is being integrated into development priorities rather than competing with them.”
Thwaites says he is hopeful that the outcome is “mostly a symbolic victory for the US”.
However, he says major shareholders from Europe and elsewhere should make it clear to the bank that it is not “the only game in town” when it comes to climate finance. He says:
“If [the World Bank] are going to cave into one shareholder, when the vast majority of the other shareholders are supportive of continuing climate action, they can take their money elsewhere.”
The post Q&A: How will the World Bank’s abandoned finance goal affect climate action? appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Q&A: How will the World Bank’s abandoned finance goal affect climate action?
Rich Wilson is CEO of the Iswe Foundation and co-founder of the Global Citizens’ Assembly.
The numbers are stark. According to the 2026 Global Report on Food Crises, 266 million people across 47 countries experienced high levels of acute food insecurity last year, nearly double the figure recorded a decade ago.
Meanwhile, disruptions to oil, gas and fertiliser flows through the Strait of Hormuz drove a 46% month-on-month spike in urea prices early this year, sending agricultural price indices up 8% and raising the spectre of a global affordability crisis.
This is not a blip. It is a new baseline. The EAT-Lancet Commission concluded that food systems now account for roughly 30% of total greenhouse gas emissions and are the largest single contributor to the climate crisis. The science has been clear for years.
Now some of the solutions to the problem are becoming socially acceptable too.
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Earlier this year, people from more than 60 countries and territories, selected not by vested interest, but by lottery, spent seven weeks examining the evidence on food and climate for the latest Global Citizens’ Assembly. They heard from scientists, farmers and industry. They worked through 42 hours of structured deliberation, engaging with some difficult trade-offs.
They were not asked to endorse a predetermined conclusion. They were asked an open question: what changes, if any, should we make to how we grow, share and eat food, so that everyone has enough to nourish themselves while tackling the causes and impacts of climate change?
Phase down industrial animal farming
Their answer was unambiguous. They voted to protect forests. They voted to phase down industrial animal food production. They voted for supply chain reform and corporate accountability, explicitly rejecting the idea that the burden of change should fall on individual consumers. All 22 of their Calls to Action passed with over 85% support, a super-majority of randomly selected people from every region of the world, in agreement.
Consider what the assembly was actually being asked to decide. Industrial animal food production is the primary driver of tropical deforestation. Protecting more land as forest and ecosystem means less land available for the expansion of industrial production. That is a real trade-off, with real consequences for real livelihoods. Politicians have spent years avoiding it.
These randomly selected people looked at the evidence, deliberated across time zones and cultures, and chose the forests, with 64% in strong support and a further 20% in favour. People from livestock farming communities voted for change. Not because they were told to. Because deliberation led them there.
We estimate there have now been more than 7,000 citizen participation initiatives worldwide in the last decade. They have been organised because, as our 2025 report: People in the Lead demonstrated, people are now consistently and significantly ahead of politicians on issues ranging from climate to AI governance.
The people know best
What the research consistently shows is that ordinary people, given proper evidence and time, produce recommendations that are more effective and more aligned with public values than what emerges from elected legislatures. The gap in global governance is no longer primarily between science and the public. It is between citizens and their political leaders.
That gap matters for more than procedural reasons. When policy treats people as passive recipients rather than active participants, it leaves out the very actors whose behaviour, trust and consent the transition depends on. Institutions that speak only to other institutions, and negotiate only with state actors and industry lobbies, are missing out on the trust and energy of the people they are supposed to serve.
Governments, left to their own devices, are not moving fast enough to prove that argument wrong. At COP30 in Belém last November, countries failed to agree on a fossil fuel phaseout roadmap, and even full implementation of every submitted national climate plan still leaves the world on course for 2.3 to 2.8C of warming.
Citizens’ track at COP
But the Brazilian presidency grasped something important. Among the conference’s more significant outcomes was the formal launch of a Citizens’ Track within the UNFCCC process, a mechanism for connecting the global participation field to intergovernmental climate negotiations. Türkiye and Australia, who together hold the COP31 presidency in Antalya this November, now have the opportunity to strengthen and institutionalise what Brazil began.
In Guatemala, Indigenous women build climate resilience with old and new farming methods
The question before us is no longer whether citizens can contribute to solving these problems. Across the world, in local food networks, in community assemblies and in participatory planning processes, they already are, quietly generating more ambitious and more legitimate solutions than those emerging from formal diplomatic channels.
What is required now is the political courage to connect people to power. Not to consult citizens and file the results. Not to invite them to observe while the real decisions are made elsewhere. But to recognise the public as partners in perhaps the most consequential governance challenge of our time.
The post As food shocks spread, citizens are showing more leadership than governments appeared first on Climate Home News.
As food shocks spread, citizens are showing more leadership than governments
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