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Monica Ngambi was born in Zambia’s copper-rich northern province as the nation declared its independence on 24 October 1964. For 60 years, she has lived by the large copper mines on which the independent country tied its economic prosperity.

But as miners scarred the land to extract the metal – at times polluting water sources and destroying farmland – local people have reaped few of the benefits.

Today, Ngambi doesn’t earn enough selling groundnuts and cassava at a market in the mining town of Chingola to feed her family.

Chingola sits atop one of the world’s largest reserves of copper – a reddish metal that is particularly good at conducting heat and electricity and is pivotal to the world’s clean energy transition.

But Ngambi, who barely earns 100 Zambian Kwacha (about $4) a week, survives thanks to a cooperative of market traders, who pool funds to buy food. Her neighbourhood doesn’t have access to clean water, and local people buy chlorine to purify the water from shallow wells.

“We don’t know how our children’s grandchildren will live. We need… a real future,” she told Climate Home News.

In 2022, Zambia was the world’s top exporter of raw copper, selling $6.6 billion worth of the unprocessed metal. The same year, nearly two-thirds of Zambia’s population lived in extreme poverty.

Monica Ng’ambi by her stall at Chiwempala Market in Chingola

Travellers at the Chingola main bus station

Monica Ng’ambi by her stall at Chiwempala Market in Chingola

Travellers at the Chingola main bus station

Intense Chinese and Western interest in Zambia’s copper resources, however, has renewed the promise of using the mineral to lift people out of poverty, free the country from debt and meet its development goals. Mining investments have soared as the government seeks to massively boost copper output and add value to its resources by processing the metal for the electric vehicle (EV) industry.

But analysts warn that delivering on the ambitious plans while ensuring local people benefit requires the nation to address its large informal mining economy, end an opaque tax regime and deliver legislative efforts to better regulate the sector.

In Chingola, that will mean clamping down on a dangerous – and sometimes violent – illegal industry that sees gangs of youths scavenge and supply raw copper to small-scale Chinese processors.



Open for business

Zambia is Africa’s second-largest copper producer after the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Its economy depends on the metal, which accounts for around 70% of its export earnings.

Moving away from climate-warming fossil fuels and slashing greenhouse gas emissions requires the electrification of global power, transport and heating systems – none of which is possible without copper.

Copper is needed to manufacture everything from EV motors and batteries to solar power wiring and cables for energy storage and distribution networks.

As a result, soaring demand for the metal is soon expected to outstrip supply. The International Energy Agency has warned the world could see a 30% copper deficit by 2035, with more investments required to scale copper production than any other transition mineral.

To capture a slice of this booming market, the Zambian government has set out highly ambitious plans to quadruple copper output to three million tonnes annually by 2031. It recently launched a high-resolution aerial geological survey of the country to determine mineral deposits across its ten provinces – the first comprehensive mapping exercise since 1972.

Illegal miners camp at the Sensele Mine in Chingola

Illegal miners dig mining tunnels inside the pit

Illegal miners camp at the Sensele Mine in Chingola

Illegal miners dig mining tunnels inside the pit

To deliver on its growth plans, the government is wooing international investors to inject capital into the country’s ageing mining infrastructure, with some success.

Between 2022 and the end of June 2024, Zambia received mining investment pledges exceeding $7 billion for new and expansion projects, according to the World Bank.

Among Zambia’s flagship new investors is KoBold Metals, an AI-powered critical mineral exploration start-up, which is backed by Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos and is mooted to spend upwards of $2 billion on mining a vast copper deposit it recently discovered north of Chingola.

Over a few days in October, in a leafy neighbourhood of the capital Lusaka, government officials, investors, mining experts and company representatives gathered for the Zambia Mining and Investment Insaka – the country’s first international mining conference.

The event took stock of the impacts of a century of mining and pitched the nation’s mining opportunities to global mining companies and investors.

“We believe we have natural resources that can change the economy of this country,” Paul Kabuswe, Zambia’s mines minister, told the conference. But years of repeated policy changes created uncertainty in the mining sector, which hurt investments, he said. “All we needed were good policies that make investors comfortable,” said Kabuswe.

Since coming to power in 2021, the government has sought to develop a tax regime which is “stable, predictable and competitive“ to drive investments and scale mining output.

Mining companies have responded positively. Chinese firms, which have invested more than $3.5 billion in Zambia’s mining industry since the late 1990s, are planning to invest an additional $5 billion into the sector over the next five years, Li Zhanyan, chair of the Chinese Mining Enterprises Association, told the conference.

Shadow mines

Artisanal miners look for copper at a large mining dump near Kitwe known as the Black Mountain

A miner uses a shovel to recover copper

Artisanal miners look for copper at a large mining dump near Kitwe known as the Black Mountain

A miner uses a shovel to recover copper

The copper-rich soils under Chingola gave the province its name: the Copperbelt.

For close to a century, the metal was extracted in some of the continent’s largest open-pit mines.

After Zambia’s independence, copper mining companies were gradually nationalised. Revenues from copper exports were used to boost public and development spending: the sector created jobs, and helped fund hospitals, healthcare facilities and education scholarships.

Chingola thrived. “Even those who didn’t work at the mines felt secure,” remembered Ngambi.

But by the early 1990s, President Frederick Chiluba had sold off the mines to private companies, including foreign firms, to withstand a long-term decline in copper prices and an economic depression. Jobs were cut and Chingola’s fortunes faded.

Artisanal miners sort bags of copper

Informal miners return home after a day’s work

Artisanal miners sort bags of copper

Informal miners return home after a day’s work

Whether renewed large-scale foreign investments can help clean up and modernise Zambia’s mining sector remains to be seen. Today, the country’s copper extraction relies partially on a parallel informal mining economy, fuelled by high youth unemployment, which has grown up to sustain the livelihoods of thousands of people.

Across the Copperbelt, gangs of young artisanal miners, known as Jerabos, scavenge copper scraps and mining waste known as tailings – dangerous work, which often turns deadly.

Without formal training or safety gear, the Jerabos dig tunnels hundreds of metres underground with minimal lighting and no structural reinforcements. They risk exposure to toxic waste and death if the tunnels cave-in.

Illegal miner Mulenga Chishala climbs out of a mining tunnel

Edward Kapungwe is a leader of
an illegal mining gang in Chingola

Illegal miner Mulenga Chishala climbs out of a mining tunnel

Edward Kapungwe is a leader of
an illegal mining gang in Chingola

Over a 10-day period when Climate Home was reporting in the area in October 2024, ten men from Chingola died in both legal and illegal mining operations, local police officers told us.

Edward Kapungwe joined Chingola’s Jerabos at just 20 years old. Danger, he told Climate Home, is part of the job. But the work pays.

“We have a ready market – the Chinese,” he said, describing a network of buyers, some of whom operate unauthorised and makeshift smelters under trees.

This informal economy often fuels gang violence in Chingola, as rival groups compete for control over illegal copper trading networks, leading to frequent clashes over mining sites and smuggling routes.

Ben Mweemba examines the copper ore he found

Copper ore

Ben Mweemba examines the copper ore he found

Copper ore

To tap into this vast workforce, the government wants to formalise the work of thousands of young illegal miners.

“We are working towards giving artisan licences to the youths so that they can legally mine and contribute to the tax base,” Raphael Chimupi, Chingola’s district commissioner, told Climate Home.

The increasing presence of mini processing plants, often run by Chinese companies, which purchase copper ore from unlicensed miners, indirectly encourages illegal mining activities, he added.

Chingola District Commissioner Raphael Chimupi

Chingola District Commissioner Raphael Chimupi

In response, the government is advancing legislation to prohibit the purchase of illegally mined copper through a licensing system which will help establish a more regulated and transparent supply chain, Chimupi said.

But campaigners at Transparency International have raised concerns the government’s dual approach of reforming the informal sector while turbocharging production could undermine governance reforms.

A node in the EV battery supply chain

To better capitalise on its resources, the mineral-rich but debt-laden nation has set out plans to shift away from exporting raw copper and to refine minerals domestically.

The move is part of Zambia’s plans to process its copper into high-value battery-grade metals, becoming a vital node in the continent’s aspiring EV supply chain.

KCM workers go to work at the mine near Chingola

KCM workers go to work at the mine near Chingola

In late 2022, the US, Zambia and the DRC agreed to support the development of a joint EV battery supply chain across the two African nations that would cover mining, processing, manufacturing and assembly, sparking hope for further value addition on their soil.

The DRC holds abundant reserves of copper and 70% of the world’s reserves of cobalt, another pivotal battery material.

While US President Donald Trump’s support for the initiative agreed under his predecessor is uncertain, Kabuswe told the mining summit that Zambia and the DRC are working to develop a battery manufacturing supply chain. “This transition would create jobs and bring substantial economic benefits to our communities,” he said, calling for the negotiations with the DRC to move forward.

Chingola is earmarked as a potential site for an EV battery production plant and the plans have brought hope to the mining town.

Mulenga Pascal Bwalya

Children sit in front of a KCM sign

Mulenga Pascal Bwalya

Children sit in front of a KCM sign

Mulenga Pascal Bwalya arrived in Chingola in 1965 a young and ambitious man with a job in the copper mining industry. Decades later and now retired, Bwalya said the rise of EVs could mark a U-turn in Zambia’s struggle to add value to its resources.

“Copper is one of the valuable components of electric vehicles. I pray that those will be assembled here one day, ensuring technology transfer, creating employment for our people and fostering a prosperous Zambia,” he said.

From raw resources to processed wealth

Anticipating a jump in production, the US and China are reviving two major railway projects to join the landlocked nation to the sea and get Zambia’s mineral resources to their own markets.

To the west, the US is supporting the Lobito Corridor, a massive railway project linking the DRC to the Angolan port of Lobito, which previously received Chinese investment. A new 830-kilometre section would extend the railway to Chingola in Zambia’s Copperbelt.

The railway, which has received financing exceeding $1 billion, has been designed to create a faster route to export DRC and Zambia’s minerals. It will reduce the journey time from 45 days using the existing road corridor to the South African port of Durban to just seven days, lowering export costs and cutting emissions, according to the project’s developers.



The Biden administration backed the rehabilitation of the Angolan section of the railway with a $553-million loan but it is unclear to what extent Trump will support the project. Yet, KoBold Metals has already committed to use the railway to export 300,000 tons of copper and related freight annually.

To the east, China is revamping the Tazara railway, which links Zambia’s Copperbelt to the Tanzanian port of Dar es Salaam. Plans to link the two rail projects would create a huge network of infrastructure to facilitate trade across the continent.

Both projects have the potential to massively boost Zambia’s copper exports. But experts caution they could serve as fast lanes for exporting raw minerals if the resources are not processed domestically before they are shipped.

Ndola rail Station was built in 1924 to export copper from the Copperbelt

The station could get a makeover as part of plans to revamp the Tazara railway

Ndola rail Station was built in 1924 to export copper from the Copperbelt

The station could get a makeover as part of plans to revamp the Tazara railway

“The development of the Lobito Corridor and the modernisation of Tazara are important for Zambia’s mining sector. But we must ensure that these projects focus on refining and value addition,” Ashu Sagar, president of the Zambia Association of Manufacturers, told the mining conference.

“If these transport corridors are used solely to export raw copper, we risk losing out on the full economic potential that comes with value-added products,” he said.

KoBold didn’t answer Climate Home’s questions about whether it plans to process the copper it is set to start commercially mining in 2026 in the country.

An estimated 20% of Zambia’s copper is processed domestically, according to Zamefa, the nation’s sole copper processor. Raw copper is exported for processing, mostly to China, which refines the majority of the world’s minerals for producing clean energy technologies.

But some plans are afoot to process minerals in Zambia, including Africa’s first cobalt sulphate refinery to supply battery grade cobalt for EVs.

For the many, not the few

Civil society groups in Zambia have long demanded more accountability in the country’s mining sector so it maximises revenues, benefits local communities and helps finance local development.

OpenNet For All Zambia, a local NGO, has pointed to secretive mining contracts and an opaque tax regime with loopholes allowing companies to underreport earnings as part of the problem that keeps wealth from communities.

“Mining must contribute to the social fabric, not just corporate profits,” Sipho Mwanza, the NGO’s executive director, told Climate Home.

“These opaque systems make it difficult for the government to monitor and collect the fair share of revenues from the sector, often resulting in substantial revenue losses for the country,” he warned.

A disused open pit which is mined by artisanal miners mine

A disused open pit which is mined by artisanal miners mine

“Zambia’s mining sector needs to be accountable,” agreed Edward Lange, of the Southern Africa Resource Watch, which monitors resource extraction in the region. He told Climate Home that fair taxation policies, stricter corporate social responsibility laws and local value addition are essential to retain more mining wealth in the country.

Lange welcomed the government’s legislative push to create a more transparent and better regulated mining sector.

This includes plans to reduce foreign dominance, increase Zambian ownership through a local content requirement, and ensure the country benefits more from its vast mineral resources by establishing a public investment company that will control at least 30% of mineral production from future mines.

“By focusing on these fair and equitable policies, Zambia has the potential to improve its national economy, increase job creation, and ensure that its resources benefit the local population while still attracting foreign investment,” said Lange.

“Our resources should not be a curse,” he added, “but uplift our communities.”


Main image: Artisanal miners look for copper in mining waste

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Palestine: Israel’s bombing has left Gaza vulnerable to climate change

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Israel’s bombardment of Gaza during the conflict that broke out in October 2023 has wrecked progress towards adapting the enclave to climate change and left two million Gazans vulnerable to heatwaves, drought and disease, the Palestinian Authority (PA) said in a new climate plan submitted to the United Nations.

Palestine’s third nationally determined contribution (NDC), uploaded to the UN climate body’s website this week, says that while “the aggression on the Gaza Strip did not make the climate worse”, “it removed the housing, water and sanitation systems, health facilities, energy networks, roads and livelihoods through which people absorb a climate they were already struggling with.”

The 91-page document lists the types of infrastructure it says Israel has destroyed and notes how the destruction will worsen the impacts of climate change. It says the bombing of hospitals and rising hunger have make it harder for Gazans to cope with the health impacts of climate-driven heatwaves and waterborne diseases.

On beaches of Gaza and Tel Aviv, two tales of one heatwave

The destruction of water tanks, boreholes and desalination plants, meanwhile, have left Gazans struggling with the effects of water shortages and drought, while mass unemployment reduces people’s ability to afford climate-driven price rises. The erasure of most of the Strip’s homes makes it more difficult for people to avoid the sun’s increasing heat, the NDC said.

Many Gazans are now living in the ruins of collapsed buildings or in makeshift shelters and tents that offer little or no protection from high temperatures.

A displaced Palestinian child fills water containers on July 2, 2026 in Gaza City, Gaza. (Photo by Ahmad Hasaballah/Getty Images)

Palestine’s previous goals to cut emissions and adapt to climate change in Gaza, expressed in its last NDC five years ago, were based on a pre-war baseline that “no longer describes anything that exists”, the NDC says. Progress made since 2021 has now been destroyed, it adds.

Green reconstruction of Gaza

Instead of continuing to aim for these adaptation and emissions-reduction goals, the PA is now calling for the green reconstruction of Gaza. It says buildings should be constructed again in an energy-efficient manner with solar panels and served with modern water, waste and transport systems.

While the PA, controlled by the Fatah political party, continues to claim legitimate control of Gaza, the strip was effectively governed by Fatah’s rival Hamas between 2007 and the recent war. Control is now split between Israel and the political wing of Islamist militant group Hamas, after a US-backed ceasefire took effect in October 2025, although a UN-backed committee plans to take over.

    The United Nations, European Union and World Bank have jointly estimated that Gaza needs $71.4 billion of investment in the next two years to recover and build back. This process should be Palestinian-led, they said in April.

    But US President Donald Trump has said the US should “take over” and “own” Gaza and redevelop it as the “Riviera of the Middle East”. Israel’s right-wing prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that Israel should control the territory with civil administration managed by Palestinians favourable to Israel.

    With occupation, targets conditional

    In the other part of Palestine, the West Bank, the Palestinian Authority carries out some government functions, but ultimate control rests with Israel, which has occupied the West Bank since 1967.

    Because Israel controls planning in most of the West Bank, the NDC argues that the PA cannot pursue all the climate projects it wants. In addition, Israel restricts the movement of PA officials, making data collection difficult, and controls the West Bank’s electricity supply meaning that the PA cannot control whether it comes from dirty or clean sources of energy.

    Given this situation, the NDC says that all of Palestine’s new climate targets are conditional but it will aim to reduce emissions 12.8% below a business-as-usual baseline by 2035 and 17.1% by 2040. If the Israeli occupation ends and Palestine regains full sovereignty over its land and resources, it will aim for reductions of 15.1% and 19.1% by 2035 and 2040 respectively under an “independence pathway”.

    That could allow, for example, for greater electrification and reducing emissions per unit of growth, the document said.

    To achieve the 2035 emissions-reduction target and adapt to the impacts of climate change, the PA says it needs $8.6 billion in total. This funding would be spent on measures like encouraging solar farms and rooftop solar and scaling up solar water heating to cover four-fifths of households. To complement the planned increase in solar power, the authority wants to modernise the electricity grid and install battery storage.

    In the transport sector, it aims to promote the uptake of electric vehicles, develop bus rapid transit corridors and scrap old polluting trucks and buses. In Gaza in particular, it wants to deploy 66 electric buses when the conflict ends.

    A bus rapid transit system in Sao Paulo (Flickr/EMBARQ BRASIL)

    To adapt to climate-driven drought, the NDC includes initiatives to reuse wastewater through treatment plants, build desalination plants in Gaza to remove salt from seawater, and promote irrigation for farmers.

    The new climate plan was prepared by Palestine’s Environment Quality Authority, with support from the United Nations Development Programme and the governments of Britain and Spain.

    The United Nations recognised Palestine’s statehood in 2012 and it joined the UN’s climate convention and signed the Paris climate agreement – which requires countries to submit more ambitious NDCs every five years – in 2016.

    The Israeli foreign ministry did not respond to a request for comment. But in late 2024, then Israeli climate envoy Gideon Behar told Climate Home News that the war and the resulting environmental destruction in Gaza was the fault of Hamas.

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    Analysis: UK solar power hits record high over summer 2026

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    Solar power generation in the UK reached a new record over the summer of 2026, as temperatures across the nation soared, according to new analysis by Carbon Brief.

    Collectively over June, July and August, solar farms and rooftops generated 8.8 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity in the UK*, as shown in the chart below.

    Line chart showing that UK solar generation reached an all-time high during record-hot summer 2026

    Speaking to Carbon Brief, Chris Hewett, chief executive of trade association Solar Energy UK welcomed the new record, adding that it was driven by “clear skies and continued growth in deployment”.

    This surge in generation took place amid the hottest summer on record in the UK, with five heatwaves between May and August.

    Summer 2026 was the sixth sunniest on record, with more than 620 hours of sunshine, according to the Met Office. England and Wales – which experienced the most extreme heat – saw their second-sunniest summers on record.

    June 2026 was the hottest June in England since records began in 1884, according to Met Office data, while Wales and the UK as a whole experienced their second-warmest June.

    It was the driest July for England and Wales since records began in 1836, with some parts of London seeing no rain at all in the month, while Wisley in Surrey had no rain for 62 days.

    In England, temperatures peaked at 38.1C at Kew Gardens in London on 13 August.

    According to the Met Office, this summer’s record mean temperature was made 130 times more likely by climate change.

    Amid these hot and sunny months, solar power generation increased 23% from the same period in 2025. This is double the level of solar generation over the summer of 2021, according to Carbon Brief analysis.

    While solar panels can be affected by periods of extreme heat, the longer hours of daylight and higher levels of irradiation over the summer more than offset any efficiency losses.

    June, July and August all saw solar set new monthly records for solar generation – July saw the highest solar generation in a calendar month ever, with 3.3TWh meeting 15% of overall electricity demand for the month.

    As of the end of August, the total UK solar generation in 2026 stood at 17TWh – 13% higher than the same point in 2025.

    The number of solar farms and rooftop installations has grown substantially in recent years, helping to boost generation. Domestic rooftop solar accounts for around 29% of total capacity.

    In 2025, the UK’s solar capacity reached 21 gigawatts (GW) by the third quarter of the year, according to UK government figures. This is a jump of 3GW, or 18%, year-on-year, as Carbon Brief reported in January.

    (Capacity is the maximum output possible from an electricity generation, whereas generation is what was produced over a certain time period, such as a day, month or year.)

    According to the University of Sheffield, the installed solar capacity is now nearly 24GW.

    This includes nearly 172,000 solar installations that have been fitted across the UK since the start of 2026, according to recent government figures. In July alone, more than 19,800 rooftop solar panels were installed – the equivalent of one installation every two minutes.

    In total, nearly 1.7m households in the UK now have solar panels installed.

    Over 26 heatwave days this summer – periods of at least three days when temperatures exceed the Met Office’s county-level heatwave temperature threshold – UK households with rooftop solar panels avoided an estimated £86.7m in electricity costs, according to analysis by Utility Bidder.

    Talking about the surge in solar generation this summer, Hewett says:

    “[It] not only kept bills down for people with solar and batteries in their homes, but helped keep overall power prices much lower than they would have been if Britain had been relying on more gas generation during the day”.

    Despite the record generation, no new half-hourly solar power output record was set in the summer of 2026. This still stands at 15.2 megawatts (MW) on 23 April 2026.

    * This article refers to the UK throughout, but strictly relates to the island of Great Britain, made up of England, Scotland and Wales. Northern Ireland is part of the separate, all-Ireland electricity system.

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    Climate Change

    How this summer’s heat and drought impacted crops in Europe – in six charts

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    Farmers around Europe are dealing with the aftermath of a summer of extreme heat, drought and wildfires that were exacerbated by climate change.

    Human-caused climate change is increasing the severity and likelihood of many extreme weather events around the world, which is increasing volatility for food producers.

    This summer resulted in, for example, shrunken potatoes in the Netherlands, reduced carrot harvests in France, dried-up rice fields in Italy and scorched olive groves in parts of the Mediterranean region.

    Global food prices are currently at their highest level since early 2023 due to “heatwaves and energy price dynamics”, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization.

    Other factors such as blocked fertiliser supplies in the Strait of Hormuz and high fuel costs have also played a role in this year’s agricultural outputs.

    In the six charts below, Carbon Brief provides a snapshot of the impact this summer’s extremes are considered to have had on crop production and yields across Europe.

    1. Most EU countries expect to see declines in cereal production this year

    2. Most countries are recording reduced crop yields

    3. Around €2bn worth of cereal losses after June heatwave

    4. UK yields of wheat, barley and oats are all due to drop in 2026

    5. Maize production in France is due to hit a four-decade low

    6. Declines in EU grains since 2025

    Article Contents

    1. Most EU countries expect to see declines in cereal production this year

    Bar chart showing that France is due to see the largest drops in cereal production in the EU in 2026. The bar chart shows that France's cereal production in 2026 has dropped -7.7 Mt of followed by Germany (-3.5 Mt), Poland (-3.2 Mt), Spain (-2.9 Mt), and Hungary (-2.6)
    Changes in cereal production in 26 EU countries between 2025 and 2026. Malta is excluded due to a lack of available data. Source: European Commission.

    France, in particular, will see heavy losses in the amount of cereals – such as wheat, barley and oats – it produces this year, according to European Commission data.

    French cereal production is expected to drop by almost 8 megatonnes (Mt) in 2026, compared to 2025.

    The chart above shows that most European countries, aside from Bulgaria, will also see production losses this year.

    Germany is due to see the second-largest losses in production, dropping by almost 4Mt compared to 2025.

    Prof Til Feike, a cropping systems expert at the Julius Kühn-Institut, says many areas in Germany and Austria, as with other parts of Europe, have been “hit hard by a long-lasting dry period in combination with record-high heatwaves”.

    This has resulted in dry grassland for animals and lower yields of maize, which is a “key fodder crop” for livestock. He tells Carbon Brief:

    “In the long run, farming must adapt better to more extreme weather conditions, not only heat and drought, but also prolonged wet periods. So, there is no one-fits-all solution for climate change adaptation.”

    2. Most countries are recording reduced crop yields

    Heat and a lack of water have “substantially worsened” crop expectations this summer in western and most of central Europe, according to a recent bulletin from the EU Joint Research Centre.

    Yields are expected to be “significantly reduced”, with local crop failures “likely” in areas such as France, southern Germany, northern and central Italy, and Hungary, it added.

    The chart below shows that yields of cereal grains – which, here, refers to the tonnes of a grain grown per hectare of land – are expected to fall in most EU countries in 2026.

    Bar chart showing that Slovakia and Austria are due to see the largest cereal yield declines in 2026. The bar chart shows that both Slovakia and Austria have seen their cereal yields drop -1.3 tonnes per hectare over 2025-26.
    Changes in cereal yields in 26 EU countries between 2025 and 2026. Malta is excluded due to a lack of available data. Source: European Commission.

    Slovakia, Austria and Hungary are expected to see the largest declines in cereal yields, reducing by more than one tonne per hectare in 2026 compared to 2025.

    The recent EU bulletin noted that irrigated crops performed well in Portugal this summer – the country with the largest yield increases. Other crops relying on rainfall showed growing signs of heat stress, it added.

    3. Around €2bn worth of cereal losses after June heatwave

    The record heatwave that hit many parts of Europe in June contributed to an estimated €2-2.3bn in cumulative grain production losses, as shown in the chart below.

    Bar chart showing that the June heatwave in 2026 led to around €2bn in cereal production losses in Europe. The bar chart shows that France is the EU country that lost the most revenue, with an estimated loss of €891 million, followed by Hungary (with an estimated loss of €444 million) and Spain (with an estimated loss of €276)
    Estimates of revenue lost due to changes in production forecasts between June and July 2026. Source: ECIU.

    The intense June heat in western Europe would have been “virtually impossible” just 50 years ago, according to a rapid climate attribution study. It was the region’s hottest June on record.

    The Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) thinktank analysed June and July 2026 grain forecasts from Coceral, a European grain traders association.

    ECIU estimated lost supply by multiplying the change in tonnes of grains between these two months by prices for harvest delivery in 28 European countries.

    Major grain producers France, Germany, Hungary and Spain accounted for 86% of the lost revenue, according to the ECIU.

    Extreme heat is also expected to have a wider economic impact across the continent. Analysis from Triodos Bank found that this summer’s extreme weather could reduce the EU’s gross domestic product (GDP) by around 1% this year, or around €180bn.

    4. UK yields of wheat, barley and oats are all due to drop in 2026

    If current trends continue, the average yields for cereals and oilseeds will result in the UK’s worst harvest since detailed records began in 1984, according to ECIU.

    Line chart showing that UK cereal yields could hit lowest levels since at least 1990 this year.
    Yields of cereals and oilseed rape in the UK over 1990-2026. Source: Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs and Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board.

    Barley yields could fall by 15%, oats by 14% and wheat yields by 6% year-on-year, according to 2026 harvest surveys from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board, a non-departmental public body that provides agricultural data to the UK government.

    ECIU said that, even if the situation improves, this year is still expected to be one of the five worst harvests on record. This means that four of the five worst harvests in the UK have occurred in the past decade.

    Consumers will likely see higher prices and/or smaller vegetables in supermarkets as a result, Tim O’Malley, chairman of UK company Nationwide Produce, told BBC News in August.

    Other crops, such as berries, have grown successfully in the extreme heat. But the Guardian noted fears this could dip later this year “as plants become exhausted from heavy cropping during the heatwave”.

    5. Maize production in France is due to hit a four-decade low

    France has been acutely affected by this summer’s extreme weather, with more than 7,300 excess deaths during heatwaves and a record number of weather stations recording temperatures of above 40C.

    The country is the EU’s largest agricultural producer, but heat, drought and wildfires have affected many crops.

    The chart below shows that maize production is set to drop by more than one-third (35%) year-on-year.

    Line chart showing that maize production in France is due to reach lowest levels since 1980
    Maize production in France over 1980-2026. Source: Agreste.

    This could result in France’s lowest maize production since 1980, according to data from Agreste, the country’s agriculture ministry’s statistics service.

    Due to the heat, “record-early” grape harvests have also been recorded in various parts of the nation since mid-July, reported Le Monde. In some cases, this means “smaller, less juicy grapes, which will yield less wine”, explained the newspaper.

    6. Declines in EU grains since 2025

    Chart showing that EU cereal production is set to reduce by 9% in 2026.
    Production of cereal crops in Europe over 1993-2026. The “other” category includes oats, rye, sorghum, millet and buckwheat. Source: European Commission.

    Overall in the EU, data and projections indicate declines in the output of cereal grains this year.

    Cereal production is set to fall by 9% compared to 2025, according to the European Commission.

    Just one year in the past decade – 2024 – recorded lower production levels.

    Maize production is set to be particularly affected, with projections indicating a 13% drop, to 52Mt – the lowest level in the EU since 2007.

    The post How this summer’s heat and drought impacted crops in Europe – in six charts appeared first on Carbon Brief.

    How this summer’s heat and drought impacted crops in Europe – in six charts
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