Streetsblog USA this morning published my essay, Instead of Subsidizing the ‘Super-Drivers,’ We Should Soak Them: Piling subsidies on subsidies, even if well-meaning, fails to rein in the full cost of driving. I’ve cross-posted it here to allow comments and add tables and graphics.
— C.K., Jan. 29, 2024
One-tenth of American motorists, we’ve just learned, consume more than a third of U.S. gasoline.
This lead-footed cohort, dubbed “superusers” in a recent analysis, burn almost as much fuel — and, thus, spew nearly as much carbon dioxide — as all auto drivers in China. Or, reformulated, the most motor-dependent one-tenth of U.S. drivers burn the same amount of gasoline and thus generate the same carbon emissions as all motorists in the European Union and Brazil combined.
The analysis, by Seattle-based Coltura, casts a hard light on America’s transportation culture. Unfortunately the firm’s policy prescription — new subsidies to entice superusers into buying climate-friendlier electric vehicles — is a mere Band Aid, and an ineffectual one to boot.
What Coltura’s Analysis Shows
The most startling revelation from the Coltura analysis is the rank inefficiency of the superusers’ rides. You would think that anyone driving 110 miles a day — the purported average for the 21 million superusers identified in the report — would rush to the nearest used-car lot and drive off in a high-mileage vehicle. But you would be wrong. Coltura’s traveling tenth eke out a measly 19.5 miles a gallon, on average. That’s a whopping 18 percent worse than ordinary drivers’ average.
The toll on superusers’ household budgets is immense: an average $530 monthly tab at the pump, according to Coltura. Upping their mpg to merely the same 24 mph average as other motorists would save them $97 a month. Those savings would hit $175 if the superusers clambered further up the mpg ladder and outdid the norm by the same percentage (18 percent) they now lag it. Annualized, that’s a cool two thou per vehicle.
Summing Agriculture and Blue Collar, and apportioning Other among the eight prior categories, only 24% of superusers are doing physical work that might require a large vehicle.
What’s that, you say, superusers are lugging drywall and cement mix and portable generators all over the county and can’t do with a more modest ride? Nonsense. According to Coltura, only 19.1 percent of superusers are blue-collar workers. Throw in another 0.7 percent who work in agriculture, and at most 20 percent routinely haul mountains of stuff requiring a pickup or SUV. The rest are professional/legal (16 percent), business/finance (15 percent), office/administration (10 percent) and other non-physical workers. Even if we prorate the 17 percent of superusers classified as “others,” at most 24 percent of Coltura’s traveling tenth qualify as Grainger’s “the ones who get it done” who might need a kick-ass vehicle with which to do it.
By crunching these figures from Coltura, we calculated that superusers’ average gas mileage is just 19.5 mpg. The U.S. 2021 light-duty fleet average of 22.4 mpg (per FHWA “Highway Statistics,” Table vm1) computes to 23.9 without superusers.
If you really want your head to explode, check out Coltura’s list of superusers’ 20 most popular vehicles. The Chevy Silverado is the choice of 7.4 percent of superusers, followed closely by Ford’s F-150 (6.4 percent). You have to drop down to #12 on the list to find the first vehicle that’s not an SUV or pickup. All told, no more than a handful of the top 20 are sedans.
Their Solution … And Ours
What to do? Ordinarily, one wouldn’t need to care that close to 20 million Americans are too Foxed-up or broke to dump their vampiric, oversized vehicles or off-ramp their road-warrior routines. After all, superusers have chosen to bust their budgets and warp their daily lives, right? Except, duh, the climate we all inhabit is breaking under their emissions — not to mention the myriad other damages from driving 110 miles a day: crashes, traffic, “local” air pollution. As I said up front, society has an interest in enticing them, somehow, into less-inefficient vehicles.
Coltura’s solution is to tie electric-vehicle incentives, messaging and perhaps even provision of charging infrastructure, to drivers’ current gasoline consumption. Validated superusers, based on sworn statements of odometer readings and vehicle make and model (hence, mpg) would qualify for extra rebates, financing and other inducements beyond those offered in the Biden Inflation Reduction Act. These would weaken the glue — economic, ideological or otherwise — that binds superusers to their gas-guzzlers even though it’s worth asking: Why do we need to subsidize someone into buying an EV when switching to a battery-powered car or truck would at once zero out the $6,000 that the average superuser shells out annually on gasoline?
At first blush, Coltura’s approach has a ring of reasonableness. But vagueness suffuses it, not just in the Coltura report, but in its lead authors’ 2022 podcast interview with climate-energy pundit David Roberts. In fact, on closer examination the whole idea comes off as a pig in a poke, with its administrative apparatus, the gaming, the appeals, the interminable wrangling to fashion the “right” incentives and eligibility. Not to mention the inevitable special pleading of “disadvantaged” motorists who almost qualify as superusers but not quite. And the jockeying in states or Congress to pay for the incentives and the bureaucracy.
What makes this prospect especially dispiriting is the existence of an alternative policy instrument that, compared to Coltura’s “targeted” but cumbersome intervention, could do far more to cut gasoline consumption — not just by superusers but by all U.S. motorists: concerted increases in U.S. motor fuel taxes.
Gasoline taxes can be raised in two ways: by boosting the U.S. excise tax, which has been stuck at 18.4 cents a gallon since Oct. 1, 1993 (losing half its heft to inflation since then); or by instituting a carbon tax, which would raise the prices of all fossil fuels including petroleum products.
Resistance to auto dependence was more radical three decades ago, as in this 1993 Village Voice broadside by journalist Daniel Lazare.
The impact on usage would be small in the short run, but it would rise over time, as households switched to higher-mpg vehicles, cities and suburbs up-zoned, and cultural norms adapted to costlier driving. EV’s would be elevated, of course, but vehicle electrification would be only one of many means of getting off gasoline.
My regression analyses of U.S. gasoline demand — a subject I’ve studied for decades — suggest that a $1 increase in the price at the pump would trigger only a 3- to 4-percent drop in usage overnight, but triple that impact within a decade — roughly the same decrease as eliminating one-third of U.S. superusers’ consumption. But that’s just a start. My 1960-2015 data don’t reflect changing societal currents, nor do they capture digital tech’s potential to match people with nearby jobs or connect parallel travelers to enable work and play with fewer miles driven.
“Making other arrangements” in the face of climate chaos is how the social critic James Howard Kunstler once referred to this social reconfiguration. Sadly, as the caterwauling against New York’s congestion pricing program by entrenched interests from New Jersey politicians to teachers’ union bosses attests, the American ethos today would rather cling to dysfunction than attempt change.
This isn’t to make light of either the jarring changes that superuser motorists will face from robust fuel taxes, or the political difficulty of enacting them. (The website of my Carbon Tax Center is replete with potential antidotes to both, even as it acknowledges the difficulties.)
Nevertheless, these hurdles shouldn’t deter livable streets advocates from advocating much higher fuel taxation. Piling subsidies on subsidies, even if well-meaning, only makes our system more complex and opaque. If we don’t advocate for full-cost pricing that tells the truth about motorization, who will?
Carbon Footprint
Philippines Taps Blue Carbon and Biodiversity Credits to Protect Coasts and Climate
The Philippines is stepping up efforts to protect its coastal ecosystems. The government recently advanced its National Blue Carbon Action Partnership (NBCAP) Roadmap. This plan aims to conserve and restore mangroves, seagrass beds, and tidal marshes. It also explores biodiversity credits — a new market linked to nature conservation.
Blue carbon refers to the carbon stored in coastal and marine ecosystems. These habitats can hold large amounts of carbon in plants and soil. Mangroves, for example, store carbon at much higher rates than many land forests. Protecting them reduces greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Biodiversity credits are a related concept. They reward actions that protect or restore species and ecosystems. They work alongside carbon credits but focus more on ecosystem health and species diversity. Markets for biodiversity credits are being discussed globally as a complement to carbon markets.
Why the Philippines Is Targeting Blue Carbon
The Philippines is rich in coastal ecosystems. It has more than 327,000 hectares of mangroves along its shores. These areas protect coastlines from storms, support fisheries, and store carbon.
Mangroves and seagrasses also support high levels of biodiversity. Many fish, birds, and marine species depend on these habitats. Restoring these ecosystems helps conserve species and supports local food systems.
The NBCAP Roadmap was handed over to the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) during the Philippine Mangrove Conference 2026. The roadmap is a strategy to protect blue carbon ecosystems while linking them to climate goals and local livelihoods.
DENR Undersecretary, Atty. Analiza Rebuelta-Teh, remarked during the turnover:
“This Roadmap reflects the Philippines’ strong commitment to advancing blue carbon accounting and delivering tangible impact for coastal communities.”
Edwina Garchitorena, country director of ZSL Philippines, which will oversee its implementation, also commented:
“The handover of the NBCAP Roadmap to the DENR represents a turning point in advancing blue carbon action and strengthening the Philippines’ leadership in coastal conservation in the region.”
The plan highlights four main pillars:
- Science, technology, and innovation.
- Policy and governance.
- Communication and community engagement.
- Finance and sustainable livelihoods.
These pillars aim to strengthen coastal resilience, support community well‑being, and align blue carbon action with national climate commitments.
What Blue Carbon Credits Could Mean for Markets
Globally, blue carbon markets are growing. These markets allow coastal restoration projects to sell carbon credits. Projects that preserve or restore mangroves, seagrass meadows, and tidal marshes can generate credits. Buyers pay for these credits to offset emissions.
According to Grand View Research, the global blue carbon market was valued at US$2.42 million in 2025. It is projected to reach US$14.79 million by 2033, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of almost 25%.

The Asia Pacific region led the market in 2025, with 39% of global revenue, due to its extensive coastal ecosystems and government support. Within the market, mangroves accounted for 68% of revenue, reflecting their high carbon storage capacity.
Blue carbon credits belong to the voluntary carbon market. Companies purchase these credits to offset emissions they can’t eliminate right now. Buyers are often motivated by sustainability goals and environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) standards.
Experts at the UN Environment Programme say these blue habitats can capture carbon 4x faster than forests:

Why Biodiversity Credits Matter: Rewarding Species, Strengthening Ecosystems
Carbon credits aim to cut greenhouse gases. In contrast, biodiversity credits focus on saving species and habitats. These credits reward projects that improve ecosystem health and may be used alongside carbon markets to attract finance for nature.
Biodiversity credits are particularly relevant in the Philippines, one of 17 megadiverse countries. The nation is home to thousands of unique plant and animal species. Supporting biodiversity through market mechanisms can strengthen conservation efforts while also supporting local communities.
Globally, biodiversity credit markets are still developing. Organizations such as the Biodiversity Credit Alliance are creating standards to ensure transparency, equity, and measurable outcomes. They want to link private investment to good environmental outcomes. They also respect the rights of local communities and indigenous peoples.
These markets complement carbon markets. They can support conservation efforts. This boosts ecosystem resilience and protects species while also capturing carbon.
Together with blue carbon credits, they form part of a broader nature-based solution to climate change and biodiversity loss. A report by the Ecosystem Marketplace estimates the potential carbon abatement for every type of blue carbon solution by 2050.

Science, Policy, and Funding: The Roadblocks Ahead
Building blue carbon and biodiversity credit markets is not easy. There are several challenges ahead for the Philippines.
One key challenge is measurement and verification. To sell carbon or biodiversity credits, projects must prove they deliver real and measurable benefits. This requires science‑based methods and monitoring systems.
Another challenge is finance. Case studies reveal that creating a blue carbon action roadmap in the Philippines may need around US$1 million. This funding will help set up essential systems and support initial actions.
Policy frameworks are also needed. Laws and rules must support credit issuance, protect local rights, and ensure fair sharing of benefits. Coordination across government agencies, local communities, and investors will be important.
Stakeholder engagement is key. The NBCAP Roadmap and related forums involve scientists, policymakers, civil society, and private sector partners. This teamwork approach makes sure actions are based on science, inclusive, and fair in the long run.
Looking Ahead: Coastal Conservation as Climate Strategy
Blue carbon and biodiversity credits could provide multiple benefits for the Philippines. Protecting and restoring coastal habitats reduces greenhouse gases, conserves species, and supports local economies. Coastal ecosystems also provide natural defenses against storms and rising seas.
If blue carbon and biodiversity credit markets grow, they could fund coastal conservation at scale while supporting global climate targets. Biodiversity credits could further enhance ecosystem protection by linking nature’s intrinsic value to market mechanisms.
The market also involves climate finance and corporate buyers looking for quality credits. Additionally, international development partners focused on coastal resilience may join in.
For the Philippines, the next few years will be critical. Implementing the NBCAP roadmap, establishing credit systems, and strengthening governance could unlock new opportunities for climate action, sustainable development, and regional leadership in blue carbon finance.
The post Philippines Taps Blue Carbon and Biodiversity Credits to Protect Coasts and Climate appeared first on Carbon Credits.
Carbon Footprint
Global EV Sales Set to Hit 50% by 2030 Amid Oil Shock While CATL Leads Batteries
The global electric vehicle (EV) market is gaining speed again. A sharp rise in oil prices, triggered by the recent U.S.–Iran conflict in early 2026, has changed how consumers think about fuel and mobility. What looked like a slow market just months ago is now showing strong signs of recovery.
According to SNE Research’s latest report, this sudden shift in energy markets is pushing EV adoption faster than expected. Rising gasoline costs and uncertainty about future oil supply are driving buyers toward electric cars. As a result, the EV transition is no longer gradual—it is accelerating.
Oil Price Shock Changes Consumer Behavior
The conflict in the Middle East sent oil markets into turmoil. Gasoline prices jumped quickly, rising from around 1,600–1,700 KRW per liter to as high as 2,200 KRW. This sudden spike acted as a wake-up call for many drivers.
Consumers who once hesitated to switch to EVs are now rethinking their choices. High and unstable fuel prices have made traditional gasoline vehicles less attractive. At the same time, EVs now look more cost-effective and reliable over the long term.
SNE Research noted that even if oil prices stabilize later, the fear of future spikes will remain. This uncertainty is a key driver behind early EV adoption. People no longer want to depend on volatile fuel markets.
EV Growth Forecasts Get a Major Boost
SNE Research has revised its global EV outlook. The firm now expects faster adoption across the decade.
- EV market penetration is projected to reach 29% in 2026, up from an earlier estimate of 27%.
- By 2027, the share could jump to 35%, instead of the previously expected 30%.
- Most importantly, EVs are now expected to cross 50% of new car sales by 2030, earlier than prior forecasts.
The post Global EV Sales Set to Hit 50% by 2030 Amid Oil Shock While CATL Leads Batteries appeared first on Carbon Credits.
Carbon Footprint
AI Data Centers Power Crisis: Massive Energy Demand Threatens Emissions Targets and Latest Delays Signal Market Shift
The rapid growth of artificial intelligence (AI) is creating a new challenge for global energy systems. AI data centers now require far more electricity than traditional computing facilities. This surge in demand is putting pressure on power grids and raising concerns about whether climate targets can still be met.
Large AI data centers typically need 100 to 300 megawatts (MW) of continuous power. In contrast, conventional data centers use around 10-50 MW. This makes AI facilities up to 10x more energy-intensive, depending on the scale and workload.
AI Data Centers Are Driving a Sharp Rise in Power Demand
The increase is happening quickly. The International Energy Agency estimates that global data center electricity use reached about 415 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2024. That number could rise to more than 1,000 TWh by 2026, largely driven by AI applications such as machine learning, cloud computing, and generative models. 
At that level, data centers would consume as much electricity as an entire mid-sized country like Japan.
In the United States, the impact is also growing. Data centers could account for 6% to 8% of total electricity demand by 2030, based on utility projections and grid operator estimates. AI is expected to drive most of that increase as companies continue to scale infrastructure to support new applications.
Training large AI models is especially energy-intensive. Some estimates say an advanced model can use millions of kilowatt-hours (kWh) just for training. For instance, training GPT-3 needs roughly 1.287 million kWh, and Google’s PaLM at about 3.4 million kWh. Analytical estimates suggest training newer models like GPT-4 may require between 50 million and over 100 million kWh.
That is equal to the annual electricity use of hundreds of households. When combined with ongoing usage, known as inference, total energy consumption rises even further.

This rapid growth is creating a gap between electricity demand and available supply. It is also raising questions about how the technology sector can expand while staying aligned with global climate goals.
The Grid Bottleneck: Why Data Centers Are Waiting Years for Power
Power demand from AI is rising faster than grid infrastructure can support. Utilities in key regions are now facing a surge in interconnection requests from technology companies building new data centers.
This has led to delays in several major projects. In many cases, developers must wait years before they can secure enough electricity to operate. These delays are becoming more common in established tech hubs where grid capacity is already stretched.
The main constraints include:
- Limited transmission capacity in high-demand areas,
- Slow grid upgrades and long permitting timelines, and
- Regulatory systems not designed for AI-scale demand.
Grid stability is another concern. AI data centers require constant and uninterrupted power. Even short disruptions can affect performance and reliability. This makes it more difficult for utilities to balance supply and demand, especially during peak periods.
In some regions, utilities are struggling to manage the size and concentration of new loads. A single large data center can use as much electricity as a small city. When several projects are planned in the same area, the pressure on local infrastructure increases significantly.
As a result, some companies are rethinking their expansion strategies. Projects may be delayed, scaled down, or moved to new locations where energy is more accessible. These shifts could slow the pace of AI deployment, at least in the short term.
Renewable Energy Growth Faces a Reality Check
Technology companies have made strong commitments to clean energy. Many aim to power their operations with 100% renewable electricity. This is part of their larger environmental, social, and governance (ESG) goals.
For example, Microsoft plans to become carbon negative by 2030, meaning it will remove more carbon than it emits. Google is targeting 24/7 carbon-free energy by 2030, which goes beyond annual matching to ensure clean power is used at all times. Amazon has committed to reaching net-zero carbon emissions by 2040 under its Climate Pledge.
Despite these targets, AI data centers present a difficult challenge. They need reliable electricity around the clock, while renewable energy sources such as wind and solar are not always available. Output can vary depending on weather conditions and time of day.
To maintain stable operations, many facilities rely on a mix of energy sources. This often includes grid electricity, which may still be partly generated from fossil fuels. In some cases, natural gas backup systems are used more frequently than planned.
Battery storage can help balance supply and demand. However, long-duration storage remains expensive and is not yet widely deployed at the scale needed for large AI facilities. This creates both technical and financial barriers.
Thus, there is a growing gap between corporate clean energy goals and real-world energy use. Closing that gap will require faster deployment of renewable energy, improved storage solutions, and more flexible grid systems.
Carbon Credits Use Surge as Tech Tries to Close the Emissions Gap
The mismatch between AI growth and clean energy supply is also affecting carbon markets. Many technology companies are increasing their use of carbon credits to offset emissions linked to data center operations.
According to the World Bank’s State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2025, carbon pricing now covers over 28% of global emissions. But carbon prices vary widely—from under $10 per ton in some systems to over $100 per ton in stricter markets. This gap is pushing companies toward voluntary carbon markets.

The Ecosystem Marketplace report shows rising demand for high-quality credits, especially carbon removal rather than avoidance credits. But supply is still limited.
Costs are especially high for engineered removals. The IEA estimates that direct air capture (DAC) costs today range from about $600 to over $1,000 per ton of CO₂. It may fall to $100–$300 per ton in the future, but supply is still very small.
Companies are focusing on credits that:
- Deliver verified emissions reductions,
- Support long-term carbon removal, and
- Align with ESG and net-zero commitments.
At the same time, many firms are taking a more active role in energy development. Instead of relying only on offsets, they are investing directly in renewable energy projects. This includes funding new solar and wind farms, as well as entering long-term power purchase agreements.
These investments help secure a dedicated clean energy supply. They also reduce long-term exposure to carbon markets, which can be volatile and subject to changing standards.
Companies Are Adapting Their Energy Strategies: The New AI Energy Playbook
AI companies are changing how they design and operate data centers to manage rising energy demand. Here are some of the key strategies:
- Energy efficiency improvements (new hardware and cooling systems) that reduce data center power use.
- More efficient AI chips, specialized processors, that drive performance gains.
- Advanced cooling systems that cut energy waste and can help cut total power use per workload by 20% to 40%.
- Data center location strategy is shifting, where facilities are built in regions with stronger renewable energy access.
- Infrastructure is becoming more distributed, where firms deploy smaller data centers across multiple locations to balance demand and improve resilience.
- Long-term renewable energy contracts are expanding, which helps companies secure power at stable prices.
A Turning Point for Energy and Climate Goals
The rise of AI is creating both risks and opportunities for the global energy transition. In the short term, increased electricity demand could lead to higher emissions if fossil fuels are used to fill supply gaps.
At the same time, AI is driving major investment in clean energy and infrastructure. The long-term outcome will depend on how quickly clean energy systems can scale.
If renewable supply, storage, and grid capacity keep pace with AI growth, the technology sector could help accelerate the shift to a low-carbon economy. If progress is too slow, however, AI could become a major new source of emissions.
Either way, AI is now a central force shaping global energy demand, infrastructure investment, and the future of carbon markets.
The post AI Data Centers Power Crisis: Massive Energy Demand Threatens Emissions Targets and Latest Delays Signal Market Shift appeared first on Carbon Credits.
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