Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed. An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
Global heatwave
SOUTH ASIA: Extended and severe heatwaves that continue to grip 50% of northwest India have claimed at least 110 lives and caused 40,000 to suffer from suspected heatstroke, the Hindustan Times reported. Delhi recorded its highest ever minimum temperature in a 55- year record this week, when night-time temperatures did not drop below 35.2C, the Hindu reported. Reuters reported that a senior government official said “Indian cities have become heat traps” due to unbalanced urban growth reducing water availability.
EAST ASIA: Meanwhile, state-run newspaper China Daily reported that the nation is “experiencing more frequent and intense heatwaves due to global warming”, according to China’s National Climate Centre. It added that the average heatwave starting date has advanced by 2.5 days per decade. The Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post reported that extreme weather has continued in China this week, including deadly torrential rain and drought conditions.
DEADLY PILGRIMAGE: In the Middle East, more than 1,000 hajj pilgrims have reportedly died amid scorching heat in the holy city of Mecca in Saudi Arabia, Sky News reported. Agence France-Presse said that temperatures reached 51.8C in Mecca as around 1.8 million people took part in the “days-long, mostly outdoor” pilgrimage. It added that the death toll is expected to rise further as many continue to search for family members.
US FURNACE: Tens of millions of people in the US were under dangerous heat warnings this week as some cities faced record-breaking temperatures, the Associated Press reported. The Guardian reported that about 80% of the country’s population are experiencing “a kind of heatwave not seen in decades”, which brought prolonged periods of temperatures above 32.2C, “under a weather phenomenon known as a heat dome”.
‘BRUTAL’ EUROPE: After registering Europe’s highest recorded temperature of 48.8C in 2021, Sicily is again having to turn away tourists as “brutal heatwaves” have led to crops dying and farm animals facing slaughter, reported the Times. Elsewhere in Europe, a wildfire near Athens, Greece forced dozens to flee their homes, reported Reuters. Officials said the fire was the result of arson and spread quickly in hot, dry conditions, the newswire added.
Around the world
G7 DROPPED: The G7 group of major economies has pledged to speed up their transition away from fossil fuels at a summit in Italy, Reuters reported. It added that activists were unhappy at the pace of progress.
RECORD RENEWABLES: Wind and solar combined added more new energy to the global mix than any other source for the first time in history in 2023, according to Carbon Brief analysis of newly released data.
PEAKING CHINA: China has reduced power from fossil fuels and boosted solar and hydro, “feeding hopes that the world’s biggest polluter may have peaked emissions years before its own deadline”, Bloomberg reported. Carbon Brief analysis in May found China may have peaked its emissions in 2023.
CONFLICT DAMAGE: A UN report found that Israel’s assault on Gaza has caused environmental damage, “deeply harming people’s health, food security and Gaza’s resilience”, according to Reuters.
NATURE WIN: After months of stagnation, the EU’s nature restoration law was voted through by ministers at the EU council, the Financial Times reported.
STRANDED BY SLIDES:Al Jazeera reported that landslides triggered by heavy rain have left hundreds of thousands of people stranded and at least 15 dead in India and Bangladesh.
$1.1-1.3 trillion
The amount of climate finance developing countries at Bonn want developed countries to provide to them every year, according to Climate Home News.
Latest climate research
New research in Environmental Research Letters suggested that the Arctic will be “ice-free” – that is, where sea ice extent drops below one million square kilometres – at the end of summer when global warming reaches between 1.5C and 2.2C above pre-industrial levels.
Ocean-based carbon dioxide removal techniques such as ocean alkalinity enhancement have been “overlooked”, a research paper in Environmental Research Letters argued.
The extreme heat that hit southwestern US, Mexico and Central America from May to June this year was 35 times more likely and 1.4C hotter due to climate change, new analysis by the World Weather Attribution network found.
New Carbon Brief analysis by Dr Simon Evans revealed that the UK’s energy bills were £22bn higher over the past decade than they would have been if successive Conservative governments had not cut the “green crap” by rolling back climate policies for areas such as insulating homes, new home building standards and onshore wind and solar growth. The chart above shows how lack of progress on various climate measures has added to UK energy bills from 2015-2024. The cutting back on green measures has also raised net gas imports by a third, making the UK more reliant on gas imports and leaving customers more exposed to high gas prices, the analysis said. Carbon Brief is continuing to track where UK parties stand on climate change and energy ahead of the country’s general election.
Spotlight
Can beavers help the UK adapt to climate change?
This week, Carbon Brief looks at the evidence on the potential pros and pitfalls of reintroducing beavers to help deal with rising climate risks in the UK.
From Narnia to the Ice Age franchise, beavers have a spot as a charismatic, comical and – until recent years – somewhat mythical animal in British popular culture.
Beavers were hunted to extinction in Britain 400 years ago, and to near extinction in Europe. Memory of their presence in Britain survives in place names, such as Beverley Brook in London.
Given their reputation, it is perhaps surprising that they have also been called “climate heroes”, “ecosystem engineers” and, more recently, “heatwave heroes”.
Such labels come from beavers’ ability to alter the landscapes around them, offering benefits such as lowering flood risk or providing new habitats for biodiversity.
It is these benefits that have seen beavers reintroduced to some areas of England and Scotland.
Climate and biodiversity benefits
Beavers are a keystone species, which means they have an inordinately large impact on their natural environment, with the ability to define their ecosystem.
They use their huge front teeth to fell trees, building dams and lodges,which subsequently hold back huge volumes of water to create a wetland habitat.
The animals do this to create their ideal environment – one with deep water so they can hide from predators. However, they also inadvertently create an oasis for a variety of wildlife.
European beaver on the River Tay, Scotland, UK. Credit: Gregg Parsons / Alamy Stock Photo.
Earlier this week, the Guardian reported that, after living in the wild for 15 years in Scotland, beavers create the “perfect conditions” for endangered native water voles to flourish.
Prof Richard Brazier, director of the Centre for Resilience in Environment, Water and Waste at the University of Exeter, said the main climate benefits beavers can provide were enhancing water and carbon storage. He told Carbon Brief:
“Beaver ponds store a lot of carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus. Beavers coppice [chop down] species like willow. When they regrow, it enhances carbon storage in the landscape.”
Climate change is making many types of extreme weather events, including droughts, more likely and more intense.
Beaver wetlands are known to remain oases in otherwise cracked, dry land. The water stored in beaver ponds slowly seeps into the surrounding soil during dry periods, keeping the area green.
In the US, research found that wetland habitats created by beavers are resistant to wildfires because the area is simply too wet to burn.
Perhaps the most well-known link between beavers and climate adaptation is their alleviation of flood risks.
In March, the UK government’s Environment Agency reported that, after five years of beaver activity in an enclosed area, the impact of flooding was reduced in Spains Hall Estate, Essex.
In Devon, scientists last month concluded a 10-year study finding that beavers are “having a positive impact on flood and drought alleviation” by storing 24m litres of water and reducing storm flows by 30% during heavy rainfall, keeping downstream homes safer from floods.
Human-animal conflict
Other studies on beavers have warned that friction between the animals and adjacent landowners must be a central consideration for successful reintroduction.
Under certain circumstances, their natural engineering can interfere with human infrastructure and farming.
Some farmers are concerned that beaver activity causes flooding and damage to crops. Others worry that tree felling could cause damage to houses nearby.
Occasionally, beaver burrows can collapse, and damage property or machinery nearby.
Brazier told Carbon Brief that “tensions can arise” when humans “try to resist the natural instinct of the beaver to create deep water pools”. He added:
“If there are downsides, these relate to the ways in which, by building dams, beavers put water back on floodplains, when humans tend to want to remove this water, such as for agriculture. But these low-lying landscapes are floodplains, they are meant to be underwater periodically, and indeed, whether beavers are reintroduced or not, they will be more inundated by flooding in the future, under climate change scenarios.”
Beaver releases
Despite opposition from some groups, momentum has been gradually building for beavers’ return to the wild.
It is still illegal to reintroduce beavers in Britain without a licence.
In 2009, illegal releases were made in Tayside, Scotland and Devon, England. It is unknown where the beavers came from.
The first licence for beaver reintroduction was given for an enclosed area in Ham Fen in Kent in 2001.
In 2009, the first licensed reintroduction of beavers into the wild occurred in Knapdale, Scotland, with the animals shipped in from Norway.
In 2021, the government allowed the illegally released beavers in Devon to remain wild.
Beavers are also being reintroduced into cities. They were reintroduced in Enfield, north London in 2022 – and it was there that the first kit was born in London last summer.
Beavers were declared a native species in 2016 in Scotland and in 2022 in England.
However, the UK government is yet to introduce a national strategy for beaver reintroduction – “missing a huge opportunity to deliver profound benefits”, according to Brazier.
Watch, read, listen
MOVIE MAGIC: Showing in UK and Irish cinemas, Wilding tells the story of a couple who in 2001 handed over their 4,000-year-old estate and struggling farm to nature.
STORY TIME: With the help of woolly mammoths and dinosaurs, Christine Shearer and illustrator Kaz Clarke have published “The Everywhere Atom: A Journey Through The Carbon Cycle and Climate Change”, telling the story of the carbon cycle to children. NATURE VOTE: With the UK general election two weeks away, Carbon Brief’s Dr Simon Evans spoke to Radio 4’s Rare Earth about how climate and the environment feature in the main political parties’ manifestos.
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org. This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.
In Kenya’s Laikipia County where temperatures can reach as high as 30 degrees Celsius, a local building technology is helping homes stay cooler while supporting education, creating jobs and improving the livelihoods and resilience of community residents, Climate Home News found on a visit to the region.
Situated in a semi-arid region, houses in Laikipia are mostly built with wood or cement blocks with corrugated iron sheets for roofing. This building method usually leaves the insides of homes scorching hot – and as global warming accelerates, the heat is becoming unbearable.
Peter Muthui, principal of Mukima Secondary School in Laikipia County, lived in these harsh conditions until 2023, when the Laikipia Integrated Housing Project began in his community.
The project uses compressed earth block (CEB) technology, drawing on traditional building methods and local materials – including soil, timber, grass and cow dung – to keep buildings cool in the highland climate. The thick earth walls provide insulation against the heat.
Peter Muthui, principal of Mukima Secondary School in Laikipia County, stands in front of classroom blocks built with compressed earth blocks (Photo: Vivian Chime)
Peter Muthui, principal of Mukima Secondary School in Laikipia County, stands in front of classroom blocks built with compressed earth blocks (Photo: Vivian Chime)
“Especially around the months of September all the way to December, it is very, very hot [in Laikipia], but as you might have noticed, my house is very cool even during the heat,” Muthui told Climate Home News.
His school has also deployed the technology for classrooms and boarding hostels to ensure students can carry on studying during the hottest seasons of the year. This way, they are protected from severe conditions and school closures can be avoided. In South Sudan, dozens of students collapsed from heat stroke in the capital Juba earlier this year, causing the country to shutter schools for weeks.
COP30 sees first action call on sustainable, affordable housing
The buildings and construction sector accounts for 37% of global emissions, making it the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, according to the UN Environment Programme (UNEP). While calls to decarbonise the sector have grown, meaningful action to cut emissions has remained limited.
At COP28 in Dubai, the United Arab Emirates and Canada launched the Cement and Concrete Breakthrough Initiative to speed up investment in the technologies, policies and tools needed to put the cement and concrete industry on a net zero-emissions path by 2050.
Canada’s innovation minister, François-Philippe Champagne, said the initiative aimed to build a competitive “green cement and concrete industry” which creates jobs while building a cleaner future.
Coordinated by UNEP’s Global Alliance for Buildings and Construction, the council has urged countries to embed climate considerations into affordable housing from the outset, “ensuring the drive to deliver adequate homes for social inclusion goes hand in hand with minimising whole-life emissions and environmental impacts”.
Homes built with compressed earth blocks in Laikipia (Photo: Julián Reingold)
Homes built with compressed earth blocks in Laikipia (Photo: Julián Reingold)
With buildings responsible for 34% of energy-related emissions and 32% of global energy demand, and 2.8 billion people living in inadequate housing, the ICBC stressed that “affordable, adequate, resource-efficient, low-carbon, climate-resilient and durable housing is essential to a just transition, the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals and the effective implementation of the Paris Agreement”.
Compressed earth offers local, green alternative
By using locally sourced materials, and just a little bit of cement, the compressed earth technology is helping residents in Kenya’s Laikipia region to build affordable, climate-smart homes that reduce emissions and environmental impacts while creating economic opportunities for local residents, said Dacan Aballa, construction manager at Habitat for Humanity International, the project’s developers.
Aballa said carbon emissions in the construction sector occur all through the lifecycle, from material extraction, processing and transportation to usage and end of life. However, by switching to compressed earth blocks, residents can source materials available in their environment, avoiding nearly all of that embedded carbon pollution.
According to the World Economic Forum (WEF), global cement manufacturing is responsible for about 8% of total CO2 emissions, and the current trajectory would see emissions from the sector soar to 3.8 billion tonnes per year by 2050 – a level that, compared to countries, would place the cement industry as one of the world’s top three or four emitters alongside the US and China.
Comparing compressed earth blocks and conventional materials in terms of carbon emissions, Aballa said that by using soil native to the area, the process avoids the fossil fuels that would normally have been used for to produce and transport building materials, slashing carbon and nitrogen dioxide emissions.
The local building technology also helps save on energy that would have been used for cooling these houses as well as keeping them warm during colder periods, Aballa explained.
Justin Atemi, water and sanitation officer at Habitat for Humanity, said the brick-making technique helps reduce deforestation too. This is because the blocks are left to air dry under the sun for 21 days – as opposed to conventional fired-clay blocks that use wood as fuel for kilns – and are then ready for use.
Women walk passed houses in the village of Kangimi, Kaduna State, Nigeria (Photo: Sadiq Mustapha)
Traditional knowledge becomes adaptation mechanism
Africa’s red clay soil was long used as a building material for homes, before cement blocks and concrete became common. However, the method never fully disappeared. Now, as climate change brings higher temperatures, this traditional building approach is gaining renewed attention, especially in low-income communities in arid and semi-arid regions struggling to cope with extreme heat.
From Kenya’s highlands to Senegal’s Sahelian cities, compressed earth construction is being repurposed as a low-cost, eco-friendly option for homes, schools, hospitals – and even multi-storey buildings.
Senegal’s Goethe-Institut in Dakar was constructed primarily using compressed earth blocks. In Mali, the Bamako medical school, which was built with unfired mud bricks, stays cool even during the hottest weather.
And more recently, in Nigeria’s cultural city of Benin, the just-finished Museum of West African Art (MOWA) was built using “rammed earth” architecture – a similar technology that compresses moist soil into wooden frames to form solid walls – making it one of the largest such structures in Africa.
David Sathuluri is a Research Associate and Dr. Marco Tedesco is a Lamont Research Professor at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University.
As climate scientists warn that we are approaching irreversible tipping points in the Earth’s climate system, paradoxically the very technologies being deployed to detect these tipping points – often based on AI – are exacerbating the problem, via acceleration of the associated energy consumption.
The UK’s much-celebrated £81-million ($109-million) Forecasting Tipping Points programme involving 27 teams, led by the Advanced Research + Invention Agency (ARIA), represents a contemporary faith in technological salvation – yet it embodies a profound contradiction. The ARIA programme explicitly aims to “harness the laws of physics and artificial intelligence to pick up subtle early warning signs of tipping” through advanced modelling.
We are deploying massive computational infrastructure to warn us of climate collapse while these same systems consume the energy and water resources needed to prevent or mitigate it. We are simultaneously investing in computationally intensive AI systems to monitor whether we will cross irreversible climate tipping points, even as these same AI systems could fuel that transition.
The computational cost of monitoring
Training a single large language model like GPT-3 consumed approximately 1,287 megawatt-hours of electricity, resulting in 552 metric tons of carbon dioxide – equivalent to driving 123 gasoline-powered cars for a year, according to a recent study.
GPT-4 required roughly 50 times more electricity. As the computational power needed for AI continues to double approximately every 100 days, the energy footprint of these systems is not static but is exponentially accelerating.
And the environmental consequences of AI models extend far beyond electricity usage. Besides massive amounts of electricity (much of which is still fossil-fuel-based), such systems require advanced cooling that consumes enormous quantities of water, and sophisticated infrastructure that must be manufactured, transported, and deployed globally.
The water-energy nexus in climate-vulnerable regions
A single data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of drinking water per day – sufficient to supply thousands of households or farms. In the Phoenix area of the US alone, more than 58 data centers consume an estimated 170 million gallons of drinking water daily for cooling.
The geographical distribution of this infrastructure matters profoundly as data centers requiring high rates of mechanical cooling are disproportionately located in water-stressed and socioeconomically vulnerable regions, particularly in Asia-Pacific and Africa.
At the same time, we are deploying AI-intensive early warning systems to monitor climate tipping points in regions like Greenland, the Arctic, and the Atlantic circulation system – regions already experiencing catastrophic climate impacts. They represent thresholds that, once crossed, could trigger irreversible changes within decades, scientists have warned.
Yet computational models and AI-driven early warning systems operate according to different temporal logics. They promise to provide warnings that enable future action, but they consume energy – and therefore contribute to emissions – in the present.
This is not merely a technical problem to be solved with renewable energy deployment; it reflects a fundamental misalignment between the urgency of climate tipping points and the gradualist assumptions embedded in technological solutions.
The carbon budget concept reveals that there is a cumulative effect on how emissions impact on temperature rise, with significant lags between atmospheric concentration and temperature impact. Every megawatt-hour consumed by AI systems training on climate models today directly reduces the available carbon budget for tomorrow – including the carbon budget available for the energy transition itself.
The governance void
The deeper issue is that governance frameworks for AI development have completely decoupled from carbon budgets and tipping point timescales. UK AI regulation focuses on how much computing power AI systems use, but it does not require developers to ask: is this AI’s carbon footprint small enough to fit within our carbon budget for preventing climate tipping points?
There is no mechanism requiring that AI infrastructure deployment decisions account for the specific carbon budgets associated with preventing different categories of tipping points.
Meanwhile, the energy transition itself – renewable capacity expansion, grid modernization, electrification of transport – requires computation and data management. If we allow unconstrained AI expansion, we risk the perverse outcome in which computing infrastructure consumes the surplus renewable energy that could otherwise accelerate decarbonization, rather than enabling it.
With global consensus over climate action faltering on the accord’s 10th anniversary, experts say “coalitions of the willing” should move faster and with more ambition
Rising demand in Southeast Asia and India is expected to prevent coal use from falling significantly this decade, the International Energy Agency predicts
What would it mean to resolve the paradox?
Resolving this paradox requires, for example, moving beyond the assumption that technological solutions can be determined in isolation from carbon constraints. It demands several interventions:
First, any AI-driven climate monitoring system must operate within an explicitly defined carbon budget that directly reflects the tipping-point timescale it aims to detect. If we are attempting to provide warnings about tipping points that could be triggered within 10-20 years, the AI system’s carbon footprint must be evaluated against a corresponding carbon budget for that period.
Second, governance frameworks for AI development must explicitly incorporate climate-tipping point science, establishing threshold restrictions on computational intensity in relation to carbon budgets and renewable energy availability. This is not primarily a “sustainability” question; it is a justice and efficacy question.
Third, alternative models must be prioritized over the current trajectory toward ever-larger models. These should include approaches that integrate human expertise with AI in time-sensitive scenarios, carbon-aware model training, and using specialized processors matched to specific computational tasks rather than relying on universal energy-intensive systems.
The deeper critique
The fundamental issue is that the energy-system tipping point paradox reflects a broader crisis in how wealthy nations approach climate governance. We have faith that innovation and science can solve fundamental contradictions, rather than confronting the structural need to constrain certain forms of energy consumption and wealth accumulation. We would rather invest £81 million in computational systems to detect tipping points than make the political decisions required to prevent them.
The positive tipping point for energy transition exists – renewable energy is now cheaper than fossil fuels, and deployment rates are accelerating. What we lack is not technological capacity but political will to rapidly decarbonize, as well as community participation.
Deploying energy-intensive AI systems to monitor tipping points while simultaneously failing to deploy available renewable energy represents a kind of technological distraction from the actual political choices required.
The paradox is thus also a warning: in the time remaining before irreversible tipping points are triggered, we must choose between building ever-more sophisticated systems to monitor climate collapse or deploying available resources – capital, energy, expertise, political attention – toward allaying the threat.
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