Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
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This week
Hottest year on record
RISING TEMPERATURES: There is a greater than 99% chance that 2023 will be the hottest year on record, according to new Carbon Brief analysis. The analysis combined multiple temperature datasets to conclude it is “virtually certain” that this year will be the hottest for millennia. After a cooler start to the year, the past four months have seen truly exceptional global temperatures, surpassing prior monthly records by large margins, according to the analysis.
MYSTERY HEAT: Dr Gavin Schmidt, director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, told the Washington Post that “it is indeed hard to give a good and informed answer to why this is happening – possibly for the first time”. Dr Zeke Hausfather, Carbon Brief’s climate science contributor who undertook the analysis, wrote in the New York Times that the ”acceleration” in warming “means that the effects of climate change we are already seeing – extreme heatwaves, wildfires, rainfall and sea level rise – will only grow more severe in the coming years”.
Fossil fuels under fire
ONE VOICE: The European Union has agreed to push for the “phase out” of all fossil fuels at the upcoming COP28 climate summit in Dubai in late November, Reuters reported. This could set up the bloc “to be one of the most ambitious negotiators” at the summit, according to the newswire.
FIGHTS FUELLED: Climate Home News reported that “negotiators from Africa and India have set out separate plans to push developed countries to do more to move away from fossil fuels” at the summit. Meanwhile, Axios reported that the host of the talks, UAE’s Sultan Al Jaber, has called for “a responsible phasedown of unabated fossil fuels”.
LOSS AND DAMAGE: Elsewhere, the Financial Times reported that countries are at odds over how to run the “loss and damage” fund agreed at the COP27 climate summit in Egypt last year, which was widely viewed as a historic step forward for climate justice. According to the FT, representatives from the negotiating bloc of G77 nations plus China, a large coalition of developing countries, were “considering abandoning” discussions underway in Aswan in Egypt amid a push from the US to allow the World Bank to be in charge of the fund.
Around the world
- BRAZIL DROUGHT: The Amazon river’s water level fell to its lowest in more than a century, leaving boats stranded and cutting off food and water supplies to remote villages, CNN reported.
- GREEN BELT: According to Xinhua, Chinese president Xi Jinping said the country will double down on green development “as one of the major steps to support the joint pursuit of high-quality belt and road cooperation”. (The belt and road initiative is China’s major infrastructure venture involving many developing nations across Asia and Africa.)
- UK HEAT: The UK’s National Infrastructure Commission has urged the government to phase out gas boilers and spend billions on rolling out heat pumps, the Daily Telegraph reported.
- CLIMATE STALEMATE: Russia’s opposition to holding the COP29 climate summit in an EU nation in eastern Europe next year has “left nations scrambling to find an alternative in time to organise the massive global event”, Reuters reported.
- OIL AND GAS DASH: The secretary general of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Haitham Al Ghais, said Africa should be allowed to use its oil and gas to fight energy poverty, “a position often repeated by the fossil fuel industry to increase oil production on the continent”, Reuters reported.
£492bn
How much global investment in electricity grids is needed annually by 2030, if national climate targets and reliable power supplies are to be achieved, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) covered by the Guardian.
Latest climate research
- The world may have reached a “global irreversible solar tipping point”, where solar energy gradually comes to dominate global electricity markets – even without any further climate policies, a new paper in Nature Communication suggested.
- A new analysis in Climate Policy discussed ways to better integrate the perspectives of livestock keepers in Kenya, Ethiopia and Uganda in indicators for tracking climate adaptation, which tend to be limited to government documents only.
- Limiting global warming to 2C above pre-industrial levels would leave the Asia-Pacific, Europe and the US “highly exposed to “stranded assets”, especially coal plants”, a new paper in Nature Communication found.
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
Toxic algae on UK’s largest lake
Lough Neagh – a lake in Northern Ireland that is larger than the country of Malta – has been plagued by blue-green algae that can negatively impact humans, plants and animals. The image above shows the blooms visible from Copernicus satellite imagery on 4 September. The green swirls of algae are particularly noticeable on the eastern side of the lake. Scientists told Carbon Brief that agricultural nutrient runoff and climate change are the main roots of the problem – and that there is no “silver-bullet” solution.
Spotlight
A young activist’s campaign to save Africa’s vanishing Lake Chad
This week, Carbon Brief speaks to young Nigerian climate activist Adenike Oladosu about her work to raise awareness about the rapid disappearance of Lake Chad.
The discussion of climate change is not a priority in many African countries, but it is driving some of the most striking upheavals across the continent. One example is the shrinking Lake Chad, which has been linked to conflict and migration in the Sahel. Once the world’s sixth-largest lake, it has shrunk by around 90% since the 1960s.
Adenike Oladosu learned about Lake Chad’s precarious state while researching herdsmen-farmers conflicts as a university student in Nigeria’s middle-belt region. She was surprised that an issue usually framed as an ethnic war was essentially a fight for depleting resources.
Inspired by the likes of Swedish activist Greta Thunberg, Oladosu decided to begin a Fridays for Future climate strike in Abuja, Nigeria’s political capital. She printed climate signs and stood alone at busy intersections; she also went to schools and churches. Soon, other young people joined her.
“The world needs to know about Lake Chad, because it doesn’t affect Nigeria alone, it affects the country around, including Niger, Chad and Cameroon,” Oladosu said. “My understanding is the fact that if you don’t know that a problem exists, you can’t solve it. Understanding that a problem exists is the first step towards solving the problem itself.”
On Twitter, Oladosu is relentless about campaigning for the restoration of Lake Chad. And she believes awareness about the issue is growing. In November 2022, on the campaign trail, Nigerian president Bola Tinubu promised to “recharge” the lake.
Earlier this year, as a fellow of the “planetary scholar and artists in residence” programme at the Justus Liebig University in Germany, Oladosu used remote-sensing technologies to observe and present the lake as a threatened space, raising more awareness about “the planetary dimensions of the crisis.”
For Oladosu, the shrinking of Lake Chad is also an issue of climate justice, which is connected to human rights. As of August 2023, more than six million people were living as displaced persons in the Chad basin, according to the UN. If Lake Chad was in Germany, she questioned, would it have shrunk by 90%?
Ahead of COP28, Oladosu joined the ONE campaign team in October to lobby for African priorities at the EU parliament in Brussels. For her, the restoration of Lake Chad should be one of the issues to take centre stage at the climate summit. She told Carbon Brief:
“If Lake Chad dries out it could become a battlefield for terrorists. If we want to achieve peace and security in the region, recharge Lake Chad in order to strengthen the livelihood in the region. This could be done through climate finance. Also, Lake Chad isn’t just an economic issue, it is a cultural site that unites. This is a decade of ecosystem restoration, Lake Chad should not be left behind.”
Watch, read, listen
CLIMATE WRECK: On the podcast Inherited, storyteller Mo Isu traced the repetitive cycle of loss and rebuilding in the rural Niger Delta region of Nigeria as the country weathers extreme seasonal flooding.
LOOKING BACK: Grist examined the historical link between environmental disasters and societal collapse.
GREENWASHING: The New Yorker reported on how a major carbon offsets firm sold millions of credits for carbon reductions that “weren’t real”.
Coming up
- 22 October: Argentina general election
- 23-27 October: Latin America and the Caribbean Climate Week 2023, Panama City, Panama
- 24 October: IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2023
Pick of the jobs
- Climate Home News, editor | Salary: £50,000-70,000. Location: Remote
- China Dialogue Trust, regional social media editor (Africa) | Salary: $580 per month. Location: Africa
- Diocese of Norwich, net-zero carbon officer | Salary: £35,000-£40,000. Location: Norwich, Norfolk
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org
The post DeBriefed 20 October 2023: Earth’s hottest year ‘for millennia’; Countries set out stall on fossil fuels; Saving shrinking Lake Chad appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Climate Change
‘Step up and lead’: All eyes on Australia as it takes the reins of UN COP31 climate negotiations
ANTALYA, Türkiye, Saturday 7 November 2026 — As leaders and delegates gather for the UN COP31 climate summit, Greenpeace Australia Pacific is calling on the Australian government in its role as President of Negotiations to ensure the just transition away from fossil fuels is central to negotiations, rigorously defend the 1.5°C temperature goal, and significantly scale up climate finance commitments.
This year’s climate talks take place amidst a deepening global energy shock, and grim reports that the world will barrel past the 1.5°C temperature goal. They also follow a deadly summer of extreme weather disasters that swept the northern hemisphere, with fears that a severe El Niño will see similar dangerous impacts in Australia.
But recent election wins by progressive candidates in the United States and Brazil are set to breathe energy and optimism into the negotiations as people around the world, bearing the brunt of soaring cost of living and climate disasters, shun regressive and divisive politics.
Speaking from Antalya, Dr Simon Bradshaw, COP31 Lead at Greenpeace Australia Pacific, said: “The world is in a moment of flux. We know it is in moments of huge upheaval that era-defining progress can happen — but only when countries step up and lead.
“As Australia takes control of COP31 Negotiations, we have an opportunity and responsibility to shepherd global climate cooperation through this moment of interlocking crises. That means backing Pacific leadership and priorities, and leading by example at home to end fossil fuels and deliver new, multi-year climate finance commitments.
“As a major coal and gas exporter, Australia plays an outsized role in fuelling the climate crisis, and has approved 38 new, extended and expanded fossil fuel projects since first elected in 2022. More than half the world’s coal export project pipeline is in Australia, and the Albanese Government is poised to make decisions on massive new gas projects. Australia must reckon with this reality.
“Domestically, we have made significant strides on ramping up renewables and the global ‘35 by 35’ electrification goal is welcome and necessary. But electrification must end fossil fuel dependence, not be an end in itself — its ultimate success depends on ensuring electricity comes from renewable sources that displace fossil fuels and align with a 1.5°C pathway.
“In Türkiye, the Australian government can rise to the occasion and show what true climate leadership looks like, but we can not move the world towards a clean energy future while expanding the industry we need to leave behind.”
Speaking from Antalya, Shiva Gounden, Head of Pacific at Greenpeace Australia Pacific, said: “As leaders meet in Türkiye amidst warnings that we will pass the 1.5°C threshold, the stakes have never been higher. Every heatwave, every flood, every storm is being unleashed on communities with the deadly force of accumulated emissions and gives a warning of what is to come.
“In Antalya, the COP31 Presidency must respond to the accelerating climate crisis and defend the 1.5°C goal based on the law and the science. 1.5°C is a non-negotiable survival line for Pacific communities and climate-vulnerable nations facing rising seas, extreme weather disasters, food insecurity and soaring economic costs. It is a fundamental component of the Paris Agreement and enshrined as a binding legal benchmark by the world’s highest court, the International Court of Justice.
“Australia must arrive at COP31 with more than meaningless speeches. The Pacific and the world need concrete dates, credible plans to deliver roadmaps away from fossil fuels built on the best available science, and a commitment to put people, energy security and the planet ahead of fossil fuel interests.
“We need real action to advance multilateral climate cooperation, ensure the just transition away from fossil fuels is high on the agenda, and back longstanding Pacific priorities — including keeping 1.5°C alive and significantly scaling-up climate finance.”
ENDS
Images and footage from Greenpeace’s COP31 ‘Keep 1.5°C alive’ photo opp in Antalya can be found here
Greenpeace has a diverse range of experts available for interviews and commentary from Antalya. Headshots can be found in Greenpeace Media Library here
Media contact: Kate O’Callaghan in Antalya (GMT+3) on +61 406 231 892 (Whatsapp/Signal)
‘Step up and lead’: All eyes on Australia as it takes the reins of UN COP31 climate negotiations
As an extreme El Niño breaks marine temperature records, COP31 is set to boost the profile of the ocean’s role in solving climate change, but finance and clear conservation measures will be needed for it to move the needle, experts said.
The Turkish presidency has announced plans for an Antalya Ocean Declaration that recognises the centrality of the global ocean – the world’s largest carbon sink – in regulating the climate and minimising the now unavoidable overshoot of global temperatures above 1.5C over pre-industrial levels.
Meanwhile, as part of the formal UN negotiations, Australia has announced plans to land a cover decision in Antalya, which, according to veteran former US negotiator Sue Biniaz, would be the only section of the formal negotiations where the role of oceans could be included.
She added that an outcome at COP31 seems likely, given the initiative from both presidencies and a push from over 100 countries – including Brazil, the EU and the African Group of countries – calling for the UN negotiations to deliver a plan for implementing ocean measures.
Governments will arrive in Antalya with a “super El Niño” adding stress to marine ecosystems and expected to continue to intensify until December 2026, with parts of the Pacific averaging almost 30C (86F) – over 3C more than normal – in October, according to monthly EU sea temperature data.
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COP31 Briefing: What to expect from the Antalya climate summit?
Electrification, the fossil fuel transition, adaptation to rising impacts, climate science and trade are key themes as governments gather for COP31 in Türkiye -
European nations signal support for fossil fuel roadmap, says COP30 president
André Corrêa do Lago told Climate Home News that it’s up to other nations to decide how the fossil fuel and deforestation roadmaps are used -
Nepal seeks stronger recognition of mountain issues in UN climate process
Flood-hit Nepal wants COP31 to adopt a new agenda item formalising work on mountains and climate change and boosting the response to rising risks
Needs for ocean conservation and funding
While elevating the ocean agenda is “critical”, it must lead to funding for ocean conservation and a clear plan for reaching the global target – set at UN biodiversity talks in 2022 – of protecting 30% of the global ocean by 2030, said Pradeep Singh, senior ocean governance expert at Oceano Azul Foundation.
The ocean is precisely where governments are farthest off track from meeting this target – informally known as the 30×30 goal. Even if countries meet all their nature conservation plans, only about 12% of the global ocean would be protected, the UN says.
“Acknowledgment of marine protected areas and the 30×30 target as climate infrastructures will certainly boost efforts and funding for science and management,” Singh told Climate Home News.
Shamini Selvaratnam, director of international climate and clean energy at Ocean Conservancy, said an ocean commitment that makes a difference in coastal communities “takes funding, local capacity and support that countries can actually access”.
An analysis by climate think tank Zero Carbon Analytics shows that investment in the blue economy – through activities like sustainable fisheries or cleaner shipping – is only at about 2% of the needs, which are estimated at $550 billion per year.
Following-through on commitments
Selvaratnam added that countries must also establish mechanisms to follow through on these measures, which currently only exists in the form of a non-binding dialogue that is not expected to produce any negotiated agreements.
She said that countries at COP31 must find ways for their ocean commitments to inform the next global stocktake, the UN’s five-yearly review of progress on climate action. Some countries – including African countries, Latin American nations, small island states and the European Union – have backed a process that culminates in the next global stocktake.
At climate negotiations, countries are not mandated to include ocean conservation measures in their climate plans. But a group of countries led by France and Brazil is pushing them to do so voluntarily through an initiative called Blue NDC Challenge. Seventeen countries have joined the initiative so far.
In its list of COP31 priorities, the EU has called for the “critical role” of oceans to be recognised, but falls short of calling for any specific actions to feature marine action more prominently in climate plans.
As part of their demands, ocean campaign groups have called for the establishment of an “Antalya Ocean Compact”, a platform where countries can coordinate efforts across different environmental treaties, including the UN climate, biodiversity and high seas negotiations.
Ultimately, Selvaratnam said a strong deal “must accelerate emissions cuts, clean energy, and a transition away from fossil fuels, including offshore oil and gas”.
Ilana Seid, chair of the AOSIS group of small island states and permanent representative of Palau to the UN, said during a press briefing last week that “meaningful progress” on emissions reduction is “the best way” to alleviate stress on the ocean.
The post ‘Blue COP31’ set to spotlight need for ocean protections amid record heat appeared first on Climate Home News.
‘Blue COP31’ set to spotlight need for ocean protections amid record heat