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Welcome to Carbon Brief’s Cropped. We handpick and explain the most important stories at the intersection of climate, land, food and nature over the past fortnight.

This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s fortnightly Cropped email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.

Key developments

Migratory species in peril

EXTINCTION THREAT: A new UN-backed report, the “State of the World’s Migratory Species” found that one in five of the species listed under the Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals (CMS) is “threatened with extinction”, with nearly half experiencing population declines. The report examined the status of nearly 1,200 species protected under the CMS, concluding: “The impacts of climate change are already being felt by many migratory species, and these impacts are expected to increase considerably over the coming decades, not just as a direct threat to species but also as an amplifier of other threats.” Conserving these species “is extremely difficult because they cross nations, continents, even hemispheres”, Dr Amanda Rodwald, the director of the Center for Avian Population Studies at the Cornell Lab of Ornithology, told Grist. 

A RAY OF HOPE: Several news outlets covered the report. Yale Environment 360 noted that the report “is the first comprehensive assessment” of migratory species. It added that “marine life is particularly at risk” due to overfishing, with 97% of marine migratory species “facing extinction”, including sharks, rays and sturgeons. According to Inside Climate News, “the numbers could be even more dire because the CMS treaty…covers only about a quarter of the world’s known migratory species”. But, it added, “the authors emphasise that further species declines and habitat destruction are not inevitable”, highlighting success stories, such as that of the humpback whale. Yale E360 quoted Inger Andersen, head of the UN Environment Programme, who said: “The global community has an opportunity to translate this latest science of the pressures facing migratory species into concrete conservation action.”

CARNIVORE CONSERVATION: The report was released on 12 February at the 14th Conference of the Parties to the CMS, being held this week in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. The next day, the CMS signed a memorandum of understanding with the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) that “formalise[d] a commitment for IUCN and CMS to work together to protect threatened African carnivores”, according to the IUCN. The organisation said that its partnership would “raise funds and facilitate frontline conservation action targeted at protecting and recovering” lions, cheetahs, leopards and African wild dogs. Dr Grethel Aguilar, director-general of the IUCN, highlighted that those four are “species that are vital to healthy ecosystems and on which many other species depend”. 

Farmers’ protests across the EU

WAVE OF PROTESTS: Carbon Brief reported that farmers across the EU, including in Belgium, France, Germany and Greece, have taken to the streets in protest over the past weeks due to a “series of concerns, including competition from cheaper imports, rising costs of energy and fertiliser and environmental rules”. Carbon Brief analysed the main demands from farmer groups in seven EU countries and found that many – but not all – were related to climate change and biodiversity conservation. Several points of contention were related to policies that have not yet been implemented, such as the EU’s upcoming nature restoration law and a pending trade agreement with several South American countries. The EU is working on other climate and biodiversity regulations ahead of parliamentary elections in June this year. 

COORDINATED CONCERNS: Truckers, beekeepers and foresters joined the farmers in protest in Poland, Euractiv reported. According to a Polish apple grower, these groups are opposed to impositions that would result from the European Green Deal as well as “the influx of low-quality Ukrainian food to Poland under the liberalised EU trade rules”. In an interview with the outlet, Jacek Zarzecki of the Federation of Agricultural Producers Union said that regulations aimed at reducing agricultural emissions and enhancing animal welfare were not sufficiently supporting farmers. Meanwhile, there have also been protests in India, with Al Jazeera reporting that Indian security forces fired tear gas and authorities suspended internet services in a bid to stop thousands of farmers marching on New Delhi. Their demands “include higher support, guaranteed prices for their produce, and forgiveness for loans, as well as a clutch of other concessions”, the outlet said.

REGULATION ROLLBACK: Earlier this month, protests were “brought to the doorstep of the European parliament” in Brussels as farmers pushed the body “to abandon its most demanding emissions targets”, the Times wrote. It reported that “Brussels has struggled to contain the fightback” against agricultural regulation and that, in response, the European Commission has decided to “scrap” a plan to reduce emissions of methane, nitrogen and other gases from agriculture by 30%. Bloomberg added that the EU has also abandoned its plan to reduce the use of pesticides by half by 2030 under farmers’ pressure. It quoted European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, who said the regulation had become a “symbol of polarisation”. She added that a new proposal drafted with the input of more stakeholders “may be put forward”, Bloomberg wrote. 

GENE-EDITED AFFAIRS: Meanwhile, Politico reported that the European parliament passed “a tight plenary vote” that would put gene-edited seeds – marketed as a way to reduce climate impacts on agriculture – on the market. The outlet said the patentable so-called “supercrops” could pave the way for half a dozen big suppliers to strengthen their market domination. Member states are currently “deadlocked” in negotiating the proposal, Politico added. Science explained that part of the controversy arises from whether gene-edited seeds will be protected intellectual property as “conventionally bred plants in Europe cannot be patented”.

Spotlight

New nature fund takes its first steps

On 9 February, the governing body of a “game-changing” new fund for biodiversity met for the first time in Washington DC. Carbon Brief unpacks the highlights and major decisions made at that meeting. (For more, see Carbon Brief’s detailed Q&A on progress since COP15.) 

Conceived at the 2022 UN COP15 biodiversity summit in a last-minute compromise amid calls by many developing countries for a distinct fund, a landmark new nature fund is now on the verge of becoming real.

Meant to finance a tall order of conservation targets for this decade, the Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) Fund is housed under the Global Environment Facility (GEF), a multilateral fund with 186 member governments. The GEF is entrusted with supporting a wide range of global environmental action. At the GEF council’s 66th meeting this week, countries agreed to invest a cumulative $1.1bn in biodiversity, climate change, restoration and pollution control. 

Dr Dawda Badgie, the elected chairperson of the GBF Fund council, who hails from the Gambia, said:

“​​These decisions can change peoples’ lives for years to come…We have to act collectively about the challenges we are facing. They do not spare anybody.”

Members from different countries met for the first time as the GBF Fund council to approve policies framing how multilateral finance for nature in this decade will flow. The GBF Fund’s initial work programme to lay out its funding agenda is expected in June this year and financing is to follow before the end of 2024. 

Funding flows

Of the decisions approved in Washington DC, the most crucial was one on how the fund’s resources will be allocated. It empowers the GEF chief executive to approve projects up to $5m and calls for a mid-term review of all projects over $2m. 

The council committed to prioritising 20% of its funds to support Indigenous and local community-led conservation projects, and at least 36% to small island states and least-developed countries.

According to the Earth Negotiations Bulletin (ENB), calls for a written policy on the participation of Indigenous peoples in deciding what these projects should look like were also taken on board by the GEF, which agreed to develop a draft methodology by June. “Projects should engage with Indigenous peoples and local communities as partners and co-designers rather than just beneficiaries,” said the International Indigenous Forum on Biodiversity (IIFB). 

Youth groups advocated for a similar, but additional, direct funding line for women and youth, ENB added. Council members pointed to sparse funding available to many countries and suggested that organising projects in regional clusters, such as the Amazon, would ensure funding would be meaningful and impactful.

The council also decided how projects under the fund will be designed and approved, with funding priorities guided by the Convention on Biological Diversity’s (CBD) Conference of the Parties, or COP. 

The council also approved the fund’s budget and administrative costs, including World Bank levies – even though they are still being negotiated – and staffing decisions. The IIFB urged ​​the council to recruit staff who have experience working with Indigenous communities. 

Seed capital shortage

At the meeting, Spain’s secretary of state for the environment, ​​Hugo Morán Fernández, announced a contribution of €10m to the GBF Fund, joining Canada, Germany, the UK and Japan in pledging seed capital to kickstart the fund.  

However, the World Bank’s representative at the meeting said that of these countries’ total $219.2m in pledges, only $54.6m has actually been paid into the fund so far (by Germany and Spain). This, observers warned, brings the fund’s actual capital into question and sits in sharp contrast to the yawning $700bn biodiversity finance gap.

Dr David Cooper, acting CBD chief, said in a statement:

“If we’re honest, we need an order of magnitude more in the coming few years, if we are going to meet that COP request of…scaling up finance commensurate with the targets of the GBF.

“We need this frontloading. We need this support for actions on the ground right away if we are going to have any chance of achieving those ambitious targets by 2030.”

News and views

INDONESIAN ELECTION: “More than 100 million people” were expected to cast their votes in the Indonesian election today, according to the New York Times. It continued: “As one of the world’s biggest exporters of coal, nickel and palm oil, Indonesia has a large role to play in the climate change crisis.” The vote “is widely seen as a referendum on the legacy” of two-term president Joko Widodo, the newspaper added. Early results, or “quick counts”, after the polls closed showed a “commanding lead” for current defence minister Prabowo Subianto, who has “presented himself as an heir to [the] immensely popular sitting president”, the Associated Press reported.

STRIKE FOR SAFETY: A partial strike within Brazil’s environmental agencies is “threatening” the country’s climate goals, according to a news article in Nature. Since early January, staffers at several agencies have stopped their field visits, “where they conduct deforestation surveillance and help to shut down illegal mining operations”. Nature added that “if their demands aren’t met, they could soon turn up the heat on the government and stop working altogether”. The workers contend that they are overworked and underpaid and that their safety is at risk when they are out in the field. The country is already feeling the impacts of the strike, Nature reported: “Inspectors issued 93% fewer environmental fines in the Amazon during the first two weeks of January than in the same period last year.”

AVOCADO CONFLICT: The organisation Climate Rights International said in a press release that “the Biden administration should act on a call by US senators to work with the Mexican government to prevent avocados grown on illegally deforested lands from reaching US markets”. A 2023 Climate Rights International investigation pointed out that avocado exports to major markets such as the US and EU contribute to illegal deforestation, water theft, and “dire consequences for the rights of local residents” in Mexico. Indigenous leaders and residents in two central Mexican states defending their territories from avocados’ expansion have been victims of violence, attacks and murders over the past decade, the report added.

AGRARIAN COURTS: In December, Colombian president Gustavo Petro announced a new court system that would help resolve land ownership conflicts between peasant farmers, or campesinos, and large companies, Mongabay reported. The system will eventually encompass 70 agrarian courts, with the first five set to begin operating by 2 May. According to Mongabay, “peasant farmers have long struggled for recognition by the state”. It added that while some advocates of farmers’ rights welcomed the announcement, others have voiced concerns about the lack of specialisation of judges and the risk of not having Indigenous participation in implementing the court system.

MULTITUDE OF MANGROVES: Pakistan expanded its mangroves nearly threefold over the past 30 years, according to an analysis of satellite data, Mongabay reported. Mangroves covered 48,331 hectares in 1986 and grew to 143,930 hectares in 2020. The analysis attributed the expansion to government and NGO efforts to boost the conservation of mangroves through restoration, research and awareness-raising campaigns, Mongabay explained. The study also acknowledged the role of fisher communities in planting and protecting such ecosystems, as well as “massive tree-planting projects” carried out bynational and provincial governments since 2008.

Watch, read, listen

SALT SHOCKS: A long-read in Scroll.in examined how changes in the Indian monsoon are disrupting salt production, threatening the livelihoods of traditional saltmakers.

DELTA DECIMATED: Shrimp farming in the Mekong Delta – touted as a step towards climate and economic resilience – is “ultimately unsustainable”, the Diplomat wrote.

ANTARCTIC OBSERVATIONS: National Public Radio interviewed a team of scientists testing a drone that will help map the terrain in Antarctica.

CONSERVING CORALS: PBS News Hour explored how scientists are trying to conserve and preserve the remaining coral reefs in Florida. 

New science

Arctic marine heatwaves forced by greenhouse gases and triggered by abrupt sea-ice melt
Communications Earth and Environment

A new attribution study revealed that marine heatwaves in the Arctic are being triggered by a combination of greenhouse-gas-induced warming and “abrupt” melting of sea ice. The research found that the most intense Arctic marine heatwave on record, which occurred in 2020, had temperatures up to 4C higher than normal and lasted for 103 days, “would be exceptionally unlikely in the absence of greenhouse gas forcing in terms of both intensity and duration”. According to the paper, marine heatwaves in the Arctic can impact fish stocks and marine food chains, thus affecting Indigenous communities and fisheries. The study concluded that if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, “moderate marine heatwaves in the Arctic will very likely persistently reoccur”.

Widespread temporal and spatial variability in net ecosystem productivity under climate change
One Earth

A new study found that future net ecosystem productivity – the difference between the amount of carbon taken out of the air through photosynthesis and the amount respired by plants – is more variable than previously thought. Using a combination of data and models, researchers explored how ecosystem productivity might vary in space and time under different emissions scenarios. They found that under a “very low” emissions scenario, carbon storage in the Amazon is “projected to decline considerably” by 2100. Under higher emissions scenarios, carbon storage “will likely increase” due to the CO2 fertilisation effect, the study said – although it did not take into account disturbances such as drought and fire. The result, the researchers wrote, “highlight[s] the need for effective actions to maintain [the Amazon’s] carbon storage capacity under climate change”.

Projected changes in mean and extreme precipitation over northern Mexico
Journal of Climate

The frequency of extreme rainfall events in northern Mexico would likely double by the end of the century under a scenario of very high emissions, “exacerbating the flood risk for vulnerable communities”, according to new research. The study found that by the end of the century, average and extreme rainfall would decrease west of the Sierra Madre highlands and increase to the east, with “implications for the agricultural sector, economy and infrastructure”. The region is home to 32 million people, yet, the study says, few studies have analysed future trends in mean or extreme rainfall there. 

In the diary

Cropped is researched and written by Dr Giuliana Viglione, Aruna Chandrasekhar, Daisy Dunne, Orla Dwyer and Yanine Quiroz. Please send tips and feedback to cropped@carbonbrief.org

The post Cropped 14 February 2024: Nature fund gets real; Migratory species in peril; EU rolls back regulations appeared first on Carbon Brief.

Cropped 14 February 2024: Nature fund gets real; Migratory species in peril; EU rolls back regulations

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Planned offshore oil and gas expansion threatens key marine ecosystems, report

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Ocean and coastal creatures are being put at risk by the spills, noise, dredging and shipping associated with new offshore oil and gas infrastructure, says a new report by a group of environmental NGOs.

The report by a group of twelve environmental groups analysed planned new offshore oil and gas blocks covering 430,000 square kilometres – an area the size of Sweden – in 11 countries.

Blocks in countries such as Kenya, Indonesia and Australia overlap with some of the planet’s hotspots for marine biodiversity, home to mangroves, coral reefs, sea turtles, sharks and whales.

Oil and gas expansion is advancing in spite of the legal protections already in place, the report says, with a third of the area being licensed overlapping with marine and coastal protected areas.

    “It is alarming to see the research findings and the sheer scale of fossil fuel expansion trajectories threatening the health and future of our shared ocean,” said Tyson Miller, Executive Director of Earth Insight, one of the environmental NGOs involved in the report.

    At the first conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels in Santa Marta, around 60 countries floated the idea of creating “fossil-fuel-free zones”, which would seek to place limits on coal, oil and gas in areas where development would lead to severe social and environmental harm.

    As part of the landmark Kunming-Montreal biodiversity deal, governments have also pledged to protect 30% of the planet’s land and marine ecosystems by 2030. This could be used as an opportunity to limit oil and gas expansion in sensitive areas, Miller said.

    The report says the findings “reinforce the need for governments, financial institutions and companies to stop funding and supporting offshore oil and gas expansion”, and calls for the creation of fossil-fuel-free zones in “high-value marine and coastal areas”.

    Oil bidding in biodiversity hotspots

    As one of the case studies, Kenya — which is set to host the Our Ocean Conference in Mombasa later this month — has opened 50 offshore oil and gas blocks for bidding in the Lamu Basin, one of East Africa’s marine biodiversity hotspots.

    These blocks overlap with all the region’s mangroves and coral reefs, the report says, which provide nursery habitats for fish, sea turtles and the vulnerable dugong.

    These ecosystems are already under severe stress from climate change-related ocean heating and increased water acidity and could now face seismic surveys, offshore drilling, dredging, increased shipping traffic, oil spills, chemical discharge and underwater noise pollution.

    The government estimates that oil production will start by 2026, aligning with “global best practices”, and has said the Lamu basin has vast “untapped potential”. The country is expected to open bidding for the first 10 blocks by September.

    Muturi wa Kamau, network coordinator for the Kenya Oil and Gas Working Group, said in a statement that the country “is preparing to open ecologically sensitive areas for fossil fuel exploration” while positioning itself as a leader in ocean diplomacy.

    “The question is: at what cost are we willing to risk these fragile ecosystems and the livelihoods of coastal communities who have depended on them for generations?” Kamau said.

    Australia’s Otway Basin

    After a four-year pause, Australia — which will act as co-presidency of the COP31 climate summit — resumed offshore exploration in the Otway basin last year, with American energy firm ConocoPhillips among the operators approved for exploratory drilling off the country’s southern coast.

    The sites under exploration are as close as one kilometre from a series of marine reserves known as sanctuaries for pygmy blue whales, who travel thousands of kilometres to reproduce in those waters. Orange roughy, a deep-sea fish that can live for over 140 years, may also be harmed.

    In total, the report analysed new LNG export projects in Argentina, Alaska, Mexico and Tanzania, as well as expanded offshore oil and gas licensing in Australia, Cameroon, Indonesia, Jamaica, Kenya, Norway, and Trinidad and Tobago.

    The post Planned offshore oil and gas expansion threatens key marine ecosystems, report appeared first on Climate Home News.

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    Climate Change

    The scramble to stockpile critical minerals could drive up energy transition costs

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    June 5, 2026

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    As competition for minerals needed to produce clean energy technologies intensifies, a growing number of countries have resorted to an age-old mechanism to cope with the threat of scarcity: stockpiling.

    The world’s biggest economies are racing to shore up reserves of cobalt, lithium, graphite and rare earths, which are needed to produce batteries, electric vehicles, wind turbines and electric systems to wean the global economy off fossil fuels. The same minerals are also increasingly sought after to manufacture military hardware and chips for AI, adding further pressure on supplies.

    But the cutthroat scramble to build up reserves threatens to drive up the costs of the energy transition by intensifying competition and pushing up prices of key materials needed to produce clean energy technologies, research published today has found.

    “If you undermine the financial viability of [clean energy] projects through higher raw material costs, you’re going to delay their roll-out,” co-author Hugh Miller, the critical minerals lead at the Centre for Economic Transition Expertise at the London School of Economics and Political Science, told Climate Home News.

    Stockpiling “is happening, whether we like it or not”, said Miller. “But if we’re going to do it, we need to have it in a coordinated manner that means we don’t have massive market volatility and adverse implications from every country trying to go at it alone,” he added.

    The rise of stockpiles

    A growing number of governments have adopted national stockpiling programmes in response to heightened geopolitical tensions around mineral supply chains.

    Earlier this year, US President Donald Trump announced the establishment of a critical mineral reserve known as “Project Vault” to protect American businesses from shortages after China imposed export restrictions on rare earth supplies.

    Marco Rubio gives a speech in front of a large sign that reads "critical minerals ministerial"
    US Secretary of State Marco Rubio delivers opening remarks at the Critical Minerals Ministerial in Washington DC (Credit: Official State Department photo by Freddie Everett)

    Beijing suspended the measures until November as part of a trade truce with Washington but the episode spooked Western governments and exposed how strategic materials can be weaponised to achieve geopolitical objectives.

    Australia, China, the EU and India have also announced measures to create strategic mineral reserves. Japan and South Korea already have long-standing mineral stockpiling programmes.

    “Legitimate concerns”

    “There are legitimate concerns with regards to potential global shortages of these minerals,” said Miller, citing rapidly rising and concurrent mineral demand for the energy transition, AI, data centres, and military technologies, combined with underinvestment in new supplies for some minerals, such as copper.

    While stockpiling can serve as an emergency response mechanism during acute shortages, it does nothing to address the underlying concentration risks in mineral supply chains. The Democratic Republic of Congo holds around 70% of the world’s cobalt reserves, for example, while China dominates the processing of 19 out of 20 minerals deemed critical by a large number of nations.

      Uncoordinated stockpiling programmes risk heightening the price volatility they are designed to hedge against, according to the report.

      Researchers found that if Australia, China, the EU, India, Japan, South Korea and the US simultaneously built reserves of minerals to cover six months of imports, the aggregate stockpile demand could represent up to 34% of global annual cobalt supply and over 10% of global lithium, graphite and copper supply. That could cause a shock to the market, triggering the shortages and price spikes they are trying to avoid.

      Miller said it was unlikely that every country would stockpile at that rate, but aggregate stockpiling demand of just 5% of global mineral supply would have an impact on prices.

      Coordinating stockpiles: a role for the IEA?

      Researchers found that avoiding the negative impacts of stockpiling requires global coordination over how mineral stocks are accumulated and released – a mechanism which already exists for other commodities, including oil.

      Coordination should include agreed rules for countries to build up their stocks over a slow and staggered timeline and pre-agreed conditions for releasing reserves to provide market predictability and reduce the risk of price spikes.

      The International Energy Agency (IEA), which was established after the 1970s oil crisis to coordinate emergency oil stock releases among member countries, is best placed to oversee such a mechanism, they say.

      Earlier this year, IEA member countries called on the agency to strengthen its work on critical minerals, including by providing support to countries “that choose to establish and expand critical minerals stockpiling systems”.

      But Miller and his co-author Pau Morandi, a policy fellow at the Centre for Economic Transition Expertise, argue that members should go one step further and mandate the IEA to coordinate the security of supplies, rather than only helping individual governments.

      The IEA has been contacted for comment.

      A call to action for the G7

      Miller said he hoped the research could be picked up by the G7 group of wealthy countries, which could lead on mandating the IEA to take on this coordination role.

      France, which is presiding over the group this year and is hosting leaders in Evian on the shores of Lake Geneva in mid-June, has made strengthening the resilience of critical minerals value chains a priority.

      In a communique last month, finance ministers agreed to “deepen and expand our cooperation among G7 members and with like-minded partners” to strengthen and diversify critical mineral supply chains and to continue discussions “on how to best organise analytical cooperation”.

      Sebastien Treyer, executive director of the Paris-based Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI), said he hoped the G7 leaders’ summit can help move the discussion on critical minerals towards greater international cooperation to secure the resources the world needs to build a clean economy.

      From inclusive and mutually beneficial partnerships to mine resources to stockpiling minerals, “we need to coordinate more like a trade organisation than something that is about securing supply,” he said.

      The post The scramble to stockpile critical minerals could drive up energy transition costs appeared first on Climate Home News.

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      Climate Change

      DeBriefed 5 June 2026: UK eyes 2040 emissions cut | US ‘dismantling’ oceans research | China’s solar slump

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      June 5, 2026

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      Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed. 
      An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.

      This week

      UK proposes new emissions target

      ‘ON COURSE’: The UK government has proposed reducing the country’s greenhouse gas emissions to 87% below 1990 levels by 2040, reported the Associated Press. The newswire cited scientists saying that the goal “puts the UK on course to meet its 2050 net-zero target”. To meet this target, the UK would “need to invest around £880bn over 25 years…but doing so would yield benefits worth £1,620bn”, according to an in-depth analysis of the plans by Carbon Brief.

      UPCOMING ‘FLASHPOINT’: The Financial Times noted that, for the target to become “legally binding”, it must be approved by parliament. While the UK’s previous carbon budget “received cross-party support”, this time the proposal is “expected to become a flashpoint among lawmakers”, it added, with both the Conservatives and Reform pledging to “scrap” net-zero policies.

      DRIVING FORCE: Separately, a new report by consultancy Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Economics has valued the UK’s “net-zero economy” at more than £100bn a year, reported the Guardian. It added that, by a broad measure, the UK energy transition supports 1.1m jobs and provides “nearly 4% of the UK’s economic output”.

      US ‘dismantling’ oceans data

      SYSTEMS OFFLINE: The Trump administration is “dismantling” a “$368m deep-ocean observation system” that, among other things, allows scientists to monitor the ocean currents that affect the global climate and understand how the “ocean is absorbing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere”, said the New York Times. Bloomberg reported that Trump’s efforts to close the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), a key climate science research institution, has been “temporarily blocked” by a judge.

      RULE ROLLBACK: The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), an independent body that regulates US securities markets, has proposed repealing the climate-disclosure rule, which “requires some public companies to report their greenhouse gas emissions and the risks they face from global warming”, said the Associated Press. The Trump administration also announced plans to allocate $700m to support “clean, beautiful coal” power and export infrastructure, said BBC News.

      Around the world

      • EU EXEMPTIONS: The EU will allow member states to breach the bloc’s fiscal rules to “cope with high energy prices stoked by the Iran war”, as long as the measures they use help “accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels”, reported Bloomberg.
      • SLOW SPENDING: The German government has only paid out €24bn of the €37bn it was “supposed to disburse” in 2025 from a special fund for infrastructure and “climate neutrality”, reported Clean Energy Wire. 
      • URGENT WARNING: UN secretary-general António Guterres said a likely upcoming El Niño weather event must be treated as the “urgent climate warning it is”, said Al Jazeera.
      • HOEKSTRA ON COP: The outcomes of many of the most recent COPs have been “underwhelming”, EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra has said, according to Reuters. COPs should be supplemented by “smaller groups…who are willing ​to move faster”, he added.

      3,400

      The number of excess deaths across India caused by a single day of extreme heat, according to coverage in the Hindustan Times of a new study.

      30,000

      Excess deaths caused if the extreme heat lasts five days.

      Latest climate research

      • In a 1.5C warmer world, the timing of floods will shift by more than seven days across half of the world’s landmass | Nature Communications
      • Temperature and rainfall together account for more than 13% of methane generated from landfills in Incheon, South Korea | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
      • The postponed International Maritime Organisation “net-zero framework” could increase biofuel use in shipping to 40% by 2050 | Nature Energy

      (For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)

      Captured

      China’s carbon dioxide emissions grew by 2% in the first quarter of 2026 due to a rise in “wasted” wind and solar generation, according to new analysis for Carbon Brief. However, emissions remain below their March 2024 peak, it added.

      Spotlight

      Why China’s solar boom is slowing down

      China made headlines in 2025 for installing record levels of solar. But in 2026, new capacity is expected to be lower than last year’s figures. 

      This week, Carbon Brief examines what is behind China’s lower 2026 solar additions.

      Solar power has been a major element of China’s renewables buildout since the mid-2010s.

      The country installed 315 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity in 2025, adding more than half of all new solar globally. The year before, it added 277GW.

      But the picture in 2026 to date is very different. Installations in March fell 56% year-on-year to 9GW, while new capacity in April totalled 10GW, a 79% drop compared to a year earlier, according to Carbon Brief’s analysis of official data.

      chinas-solar-additions-fallen-significantly-may-2025-highs

      Domestic uncertainty

      The lower pace in 2026 had been anticipated by analysts.

      In previous years, massive solar installations were driven by strong policy support for renewables, including a fixed-price tariff for generators.

      In February 2025, the government announced that new solar and wind projects would instead be financed through a new “contract for difference” (CfD)-style system.

      Under the new system, power from a certain amount of renewable capacity will be purchased for a fixed “strike price”, which to date has been far lower than previous guaranteed tariffs. Further projects will need to secure their own contracts on the open market.

      While the new system is posing challenges for developers in the short term, it is part of a longer-term shift towards market-driven pricing for renewables, which has already made them cheaper than coal.

      The change led to a rush of new project installations ahead of the June 2025 cut-off date, so that they could fall under the old fixed-price regime.

      New solar additions totalled 45GW in April 2025 and 93GW in May 2025, before falling to 14GW in June 2025, according to Carbon Brief analysis of government data.

      Additions also spiked in December, in both 2024 and 2025, as developers raced to meet completion deadlines including those under the 14th five-year plan.

      Some reports have attributed the precipitous drop this year to falling demand for solar in China.

      But this is a “major oversimplification”, David Fishman, principal at energy consultancy the Lantau Group, wrote on LinkedIn.

      The real challenge, he said, is that “developers and banks [are] still figuring out how to finance and build projects without policy-backed revenue guarantees”.

      Yang Biqing, energy analyst for Asia at thinktank Ember, agrees, telling Carbon Brief that the new CfD-style system has created “greater uncertainty” for developers, compounded by fierce competition and a growing push for “consolidation” in the industry.

      The government set a target for 200GW of new solar and wind capacity in 2026.

      Fishman told Carbon Brief that this will be “difficult” for the government to achieve, though not impossible. Current levels of solar additions – reaching perhaps 120GW for the year – plus an “ambitious” 80GW of new wind power, could help China to hit the target, he said.

      Others are more bullish. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association forecasts 180-240GW of new solar in 2026.

      But few believe additions will match the breakneck pace of 2025.

      “China’s solar industry is no longer a story of capacity expansion”, said Yang, with officials now “increasingly” focused on integrating current generation into the grid.

      Soaring exports

      Meanwhile, China’s solar exports are still going strong.

      China exported almost 1.2m tonnes of solar cells in April 2026, according to Reuters. Although down from a record high in March, it represented a 60% rise year-on-year, added the newswire.

      This signals solar’s attractiveness globally in the face of rising energy prices caused by the Iran-US conflict, analysts have said.

      High demand for panels has been reported across several continents, including Europe, Asia and Africa.

      For example, in the Philippines, the conflict is “driving” solar uptake, one analyst told the Associated Press, adding:

      “People want solar and people want solar now.”

      A version of this article is also available on the Carbon Brief website.

      Watch, read, listen

      EL NIÑO IMPACTS: An interactive piece from BBC News described how the forecasted “super” El Niño could impact global climate and weather in the coming months.

      ‘CAUTIONARY TALE’: Two researchers wrote in Climate Home News that “Indonesia’s failing Just Energy Transition Partnership is a cautionary tale”.

      ‘CULTURE WAR’: Time magazine spoke to London mayor Sadiq Khan about how he “survived the climate culture war”.

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      DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.

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      The post DeBriefed 5 June 2026: UK eyes 2040 emissions cut | US ‘dismantling’ oceans research | China’s solar slump appeared first on Carbon Brief.

      DeBriefed 5 June 2026: UK eyes 2040 emissions cut | US ‘dismantling’ oceans research | China’s solar slump

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