Nickel has moved from being a niche industrial metal to a critical pillar of the global energy transition, along with copper, lithium, and uranium.

Once primarily used in stainless steel, nickel is now critical for high-energy-density batteries, electric vehicles (EVs), grid storage, aerospace alloys, and emerging hydrogen infrastructure.

Essentially, it’s now another mineral on that list, albeit one that seems to have largely flown under most investors’ radars thus far. However, it’s understandable why that’s been the case – after all, the primary use for mined nickel has long been industrial, with over three-quarters of global nickel demand being for things like alloy production or electroplating.

Nickel Basics: Types, Grades, and Industrial Uses

Nickel is a silvery-white transition metal with high corrosion resistance, ductility, and thermal stability. Its unique properties make it indispensable in alloys and electrochemical applications.

Nickel is generally classified into two main categories:

• Class 1 nickel: High-purity nickel metal, powders, briquettes, and salts such as nickel sulfate. These are essential for battery cathodes, advanced alloys, and aerospace applications.
• Class 2 nickel: Ferronickel and nickel pig iron (NPI), primarily used in stainless steel production.

Historically, stainless steel accounted for roughly two-thirds of nickel consumption, providing a stable demand base. However, batteries have emerged as the fastest-growing segment, particularly for nickel-rich cathode chemistries such as NMC (nickel-manganese-cobalt) and NCA (nickel-cobalt-aluminum).

Aerospace, defense, and superalloys also rely heavily on nickel for high-temperature and corrosion-resistant applications.

This dual-market nature—spanning bulk industrial use and high-tech energy transition applications—makes nickel one of the most structurally complex metals in the critical minerals ecosystem.

Nickel Processing Technologies: The Backbone of the EV and Steel Boom

Not all nickel is equal, and processing technology determines where it ends up. Nickel processing is the set of industrial methods used to extract nickel from its ores and turn it into usable forms for various industries, including stainless steel, batteries, and alloys. Essentially, it’s how raw nickel in rocks becomes the high-purity metal or chemical compounds needed for manufacturing.

Nickel is mined mainly from two types of ores:

• Sulfide ores – Found deep underground, easier to process, high purity.
• Laterite ores – Found near the surface, lower nickel content, more challenging to process.

The Case Of Battery Grade Nickel

In order to be used in an electric vehicle, nickel must first be refined to extremely high purities, creating what’s known as “battery grade” nickel. Following this, it then needs to be dissolved in sulphuric acid to create nickel sulphate, which can then be used to produce battery cathodes.

Nickel’s high energy density, which allows it to hold more charge for less weight, makes high-nickel battery chemistries more desirable in EV batteries. While the first iterations of the lithium-ion battery used equal proportions of nickel, manganese, and cobalt, modern ones use as much nickel as manganese and cobalt combined.

And as technology continues to progress, it’s expected that the ratio will rise to as much as 80% nickel, or even more.

Now here’s a simple breakdown of the processing technologies:

Pyrometallurgy Still Dominates Stainless Steel

High-temperature smelting remains the most common route for nickel extraction. Rotary kiln–electric furnace (RKEF) and flash smelting convert sulfide and laterite ores into ferronickel or nickel pig iron (NPI). These products suit stainless steel, but they consume large amounts of energy and emit significant CO₂.

Notably, NPI and ferronickel continue to anchor global supply.

Hydrometallurgy Powers Battery-Grade Nickel

Hydrometallurgical routes, especially high-pressure acid leaching (HPAL), are becoming critical for EV batteries. HPAL converts laterite ores into mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) and then into nickel sulfate for cathodes.

Refining and Recycling Gain Momentum

Electrorefining and solvent extraction deliver high-purity Class 1 nickel. Refined products made up around 60% of the nickel market in 2024. Recycling is also rising as a low-carbon supply source.

In short, nickel processing is splitting into two markets: low-cost NPI for steel and high-purity nickel for batteries. This divide is reshaping supply chains, investment flows, and decarbonization strategies across the metals industry.

The Volatile Nickel Price Cycle 

Unlike lithium, the nickel market is much more complex. The metal sits at the crossroads of geopolitics, industrial demand, and changing battery technology. Over the past five years, nickel prices have been highly volatile.

For example, during the 2022 LME squeeze, prices spiked above $100,000 per tonne. Then they dropped sharply to around $13,900 per tonne in early 2025.

• Since then, they have started to recover, reaching about $17,200 per tonne by February 2026.

This volatility shows how sensitive nickel is to supply, demand, and global events. As EV demand grows, the nickel market will continue to face swings.

This volatility reflects a structural mismatch between supply expansion and shifting demand patterns. Massive Indonesian production growth has flooded the market, while battery chemistry trends toward lithium iron phosphate (LFP) have reduced nickel intensity in mass-market EVs. At the same time, premium EVs and aerospace applications continue to rely heavily on Class 1 nickel, creating a bifurcated market structure.

For investors, policymakers, and corporates, nickel represents a critical test case for the energy transition economy. Understanding its supply chain, macro drivers, and long-term price scenarios is essential for navigating the next decade of critical minerals markets.

• SEE MORE: Nickel’s Wild Ride: What’s Driving Prices and Future Demand?

Global Nickel Supply: Indonesia’s Dominance and Market Impact

Indonesia has reshaped the global nickel market more than any other country. In 2024, its nickel in mine production was 2.2 million tonnes (mt), an increase of 158% over the previous five years. Its rise was fueled by a combination of raw-ore export bans, massive Chinese-backed investments in downstream processing, and the rapid deployment of high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) facilities for battery-grade nickel.

By consolidating both mining and smelting, Indonesia has established a vertically integrated nickel ecosystem capable of supplying both stainless steel and battery markets at low cost.

Policy Controls and Quota Management

Despite its dominance, Indonesia’s nickel supply faces tightening government controls in 2026. The government sharply reduced the nickel ore production quota (RKAB) to 250–260 million wet metric tonnes (wmt), down from 379 million wmt in 2025 and 298 million wmt initially approved for 2025—a cut of roughly 34%.

The move aims to align ore output with domestic smelter capacity, curb oversupply, and support prices. Following the announcement, LME nickel prices surged past $18,000/t before stabilizing near $17,200/t in February 2026.

Delays in RKAB approvals have already halted operations at mines such as PT Vale Indonesia, signaling enforcement risks for the policy. Meanwhile, demand growth is tempered by slower stainless steel uptake and the structural shift toward LFP batteries, which has helped sustain a global surplus forecast of 261–288 kt in 2026 despite production cuts.

Indonesia’s strategic approach—resource nationalism, controlled expansion, and downstream integration—has fundamentally altered global nickel pricing. Low production costs and government-backed industrial policy allow Indonesian producers to remain profitable even during periods of weak prices.

• However, S&P Global noted that, “Indonesia is still projected to more than double its production over the next decade to an estimated 4.97 MMt by 2035.”

China’s Role in the Nickel Supply Chain

China continues to dominate the processing of nickel intermediates and battery materials. Chinese firms have financed and built much of Indonesia’s upstream infrastructure, including HPAL plants and mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) facilities.

It is also the single largest consumer of nickel, driven by domestic stainless steel production and battery manufacturing. Policy shifts, stimulus measures, and industrial planning decisions in China have an outsized impact on global nickel markets, influencing both price and supply chain dynamics.

Other Global Producers

Beyond Indonesia and China, major nickel-producing countries include Russia, the Philippines, Canada, Australia, and New Caledonia. However, many high-cost producers have struggled to compete with Indonesia’s integrated, low-cost production model. For example, BHP suspended operations at its Nickel West facility in Western Australia amid persistent low prices, highlighting the competitive pressures faced by high-cost producers.

This dynamic has accelerated consolidation in the global nickel industry, with strategic repositioning focused on securing downstream processing and high-grade nickel for energy transition applications.

Nickel Demand Dynamics: Stainless Steel vs. Batteries

Stainless Steel: The Legacy Anchor

Stainless steel remains the primary driver of nickel demand, accounting for roughly two-thirds of consumption. Demand is closely tied to construction, infrastructure, and manufacturing activity. China, the world’s largest stainless steel producer, remains a key macro driver for nickel demand globally.

Class 1 Nickel: Powering the EV Boom

Nickel demand for batteries has grown fast over the past decade. Class 1 nickel, with purity above 99.8%, is key for high-energy NMC and NCA batteries. These batteries power premium EVs, giving longer driving ranges and lighter, more efficient vehicles. Advanced cathodes now contain 60–80% nickel, with some designs targeting 90%+ nickel content.

By 2030, nickel-heavy batteries could reach 1,320 MWh globally, covering about 80% of all EV lithium-ion batteries. Battery demand is expected to use over 50% of Class 1 nickel by 2027, growing at 12–15% per year. The average EV battery now contains 28–30 kg of nickel.

But there are risks:

• LFP batteries, which contain no nickel, are growing in lower-cost EVs, especially in China. Nickel intensity per vehicle has fallen nearly one-third since 2020.

• Policy differences affect supply: China held 63.5% of global nickel demand in 2025, Europe prioritizes allied supply, and US policies are less stable.

The Lights Are Green for Nickel

Forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA) project nickel demand more than doubling by 2035 under current pledges, potentially tripling in net-zero scenarios driven by EVs and storage.

IEA also projects that nickel use in EV batteries, renewables, and stainless steel is projected to push nickel demand above 5.5 Mt by 2035. As Indonesia tightens output and China dominates downstream processing, Western economies face rising exposure to supply disruptions and geopolitical leverage.​ Even conservative outlooks show 8-9x EV battery demand growth by 2050, despite late-decade plateaus from chemistry shifts.

• READ MORE: Nickel Demand to Triple by 2030: Can the Market Keep Up?

Long-Term Supply Outlook: From Oversupply to Potential Deficit

As per INSG last year, supply vastly outpaced demand, hitting 209-212 kt global surplus. Recently, S&P Global projected a 156,000-tonne surplus in 2026. However, the same analysis also says that today’s surplus will not last forever.

The report projects that global nickel stocks will peak around 2028. After that, inventories will begin to fall as demand improves and supply growth slows. By the early 2030s, the market balance will flip.

By 2031, S&P Global expects the primary nickel balance to turn negative. EV battery demand will grow as electrification expands. Stainless steel consumption will recover alongside global manufacturing. Significantly, Indonesian supply growth will slow as easy expansions may run out, and regulatory risks can increase.

Once inventories drop below comfortable weeks-of-consumption levels, prices respond quickly. S&P Global points to nickel prices rising toward $25,000 per tonne or higher, especially for Class 1 material.

Policy and Geopolitics: Resource Nationalism and Market Fragmentation

Indonesia exemplifies modern resource nationalism. The government’s export bans, production quotas, and mine suspensions aim to capture downstream value and stabilize prices.

Western governments are responding with critical minerals strategies, including subsidies, domestic mining support, and restrictions on Chinese supply chains. This could fragment the global nickel market into competing blocs, heightening geopolitical risk for downstream industries.

Most importantly, the Trump administration sees developing U.S. nickel supply chains as key to reducing dependence on foreign sources and boosting the domestic industry. Efforts include promoting new mining projects, speeding up permits for critical mineral operations, and exploring tariffs or other trade measures to support local production. One major example is a copper-nickel project in Minnesota, led by a joint venture between Glencore and Teck Resources.

Macro Drivers: Energy Transition, Industrial Demand, and Monetary Policy

Nickel is highly sensitive to macroeconomic and policy conditions. Industrial demand tracks global manufacturing cycles, while battery demand depends on EV adoption rates, subsidies, and consumer behavior.

Interest rates, inflation, and currency fluctuations affect nickel through speculative flows and production financing costs. Meanwhile, energy transition policies, carbon pricing, and ESG mandates are reshaping supply chains, pushing automakers and battery manufacturers to secure long-term nickel supply agreements.

Nickel’s Role in Carbon Markets and Net-Zero Strategies

Nickel’s importance extends beyond industrial use. Battery supply chains are central to decarbonization, embedding nickel demand in national net-zero strategies. Companies increasingly link nickel sourcing to ESG frameworks, carbon disclosure requirements, and sustainability-linked financing.

At the same time, nickel production drives greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. According to a disclosure from the International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group), under a scenario accounting for declining ore grades and cleaner grids, emissions could rise 90% from 2020 to 2050. Additionally, a lack of decarbonization could push emissions to 164%.

Most emissions come from processing rather than mining. Pyrometallurgical routes for Class 2 nickel (used in stainless steel) are coal-intensive, while Class 1 battery-grade nickel has lower emissions. Shifting to EV-focused, Class 1 production can help limit emissions growth.

Thus, cleaner processing, low-carbon production, and recycling could give automakers and battery makers a competitive edge, while decarbonized electricity is key to controlling nickel emissions as production rises.

Top 3 Nickel Producers Signal Tight Supply Heading into 2026

The global nickel market entered 2026 with cautious signals from its largest producers. Industry analysts revealed that mining output stayed broadly flat, disruptions persisted, and companies focused more on battery-grade processing than expanding supply. This reinforced expectations of a structurally tight nickel market.

Nornickel

Norilsk Nickel, or Nornickel, reported stable but slightly lower production in 2025. The company produced 199,000 tonnes of nickel, down 3% year-on-year, mainly due to a shift toward lower-grade disseminated ore. Production recovered in the fourth quarter, rising 9% quarter-on-quarter to 58,000 tonnes after scheduled maintenance in Q3. Nearly all nickel came from the company’s own Russian feedstock, highlighting its self-reliant supply chain.

For 2026, Nornickel guided nickel output between 193,000 and 203,000 tonnes, signaling flat production with no major expansion plans. Nornickel’s market capitalization stood at about $31 billion as of February 2026, underscoring its role as a major global supplier despite geopolitical constraints.

The lack of growth from one of the world’s key Class 1 nickel producers suggests limited incremental supply from Russia.

Vale

Brazil’s Vale continued to position itself as a strategic player in the battery metals supply chain. The company plans a nickel sulfate refinery in Bécancour, Québec, with deliveries to General Motors targeted for the second half of 2026, pending regulatory approvals. This move highlighted Vale’s push toward high-purity battery materials rather than bulk nickel mining.

Vale’s market capitalization was around $69–70 billion in early 2026, making it one of the largest diversified miners with significant nickel exposure. It produced 175,000 tonnes of nickel in 2025, reaching the high end of its guidance. Growth came from Canadian operations in Sudbury and Long Harbour and restarts in Brazil.

Looking ahead, Vale Indonesia warned its 2026 mining quota won’t meet demand for new nickel smelters. The approved quota is only about 30% of what the company requested, raising concerns that upcoming processing plants could face ore shortages.

Vale and partners are building three HPAL plants for EV battery nickel. The Pomalaa plant, starting in August 2026, will need 21 million tonnes of limonite ore per year, while Bahodopi will require 10.4 million tonnes annually. These projects represent over $6.5 billion in investment and highlight the growing pressure on Indonesia’s nickel supply.

Glencore

Glencore’s 2025 Full‑Year Production Report showed nickel output from its own sources at 71,900 tonnes, down about 7% from 82,300 tonnes in 2024. This decline was driven by lower production at both Integrated Nickel Operations (INO) and the Murrin Murrin operations. The reported figure excludes 5,000 tonnes from the Koniambo project, which is in care and maintenance.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, nickel production (including third‑party feed) was around 35,300 tonnes, slightly below the prior quarter. Glencore also gave 2026 nickel guidance of 70,000–80,000 tonnes, reflecting a relatively flat outlook after the 2025 drop.

Its nickel business is part of a broader diversified metals portfolio, with the company also producing copper, zinc, cobalt, coal, and other commodities. Nickel remains important to its strategy, especially given rising EV battery demand, but output challenges and asset transitions affected annual totals.

As of February 2026, Glencore’s market capitalization is widely reported to be around $58–61 billion (USD) based on its London Stock Exchange listing and share price.

This positions Glencore as a major diversified mining and commodity trading company, though smaller in market value than some of its peers like Rio Tinto or BHP. The company’s valuation reflects its breadth across metals, energy, and marketing operations, and its prospects are often shaped by commodity price swings and operational performance.

Risks and Opportunities for Investors and Policymakers

The top nickel producers showed limited growth in mining output while accelerating investments in battery-grade processing. Ore quality challenges, regulatory delays, and operational disruptions continued to constrain supply. At the same time, electric vehicle demand and energy transition needs kept rising.

The lack of aggressive supply expansion from major producers suggests the nickel market could remain structurally tight through the late 2020s, especially for high-purity Class 1 nickel required in batteries.

This is why nickel stocks present a unique combination of risks and opportunities. Supply concentration, policy interventions, and technological disruption create price volatility. Conversely, long-term demand from electrification, aviation, and hydrogen infrastructure provides structural upside.

Investors must navigate cyclical price swings, while policymakers balance industrial policy with market stability. Strategic supply agreements, diversification, and technology adoption will be crucial for managing risk.

Conclusion: Nickel’s Strategic Decade Ahead

Nickel is entering a decisive decade. The metal is so vital for the global energy transition, but faces structural uncertainty from supply expansion and evolving battery technology.

The next ten years will determine whether nickel becomes a stable metal of clean energy supply chains or a cautionary case study in commodity oversupply and industrial policy missteps. For institutions, understanding nickel’s macro dynamics, supply chains, and policy risks is essential. The metal’s trajectory will shape not only battery markets but also the geopolitics of the global energy transition.

• READ MORE: Top 4 Nickel Companies Driving Electrification and Clean Energy in 2025 

The post The Ultimate Guide to Nickel: Supply, Demand, and Nickel Prices for 2026 and Beyond appeared first on Carbon Credits.

Spanish energy company Moeve approved more than €1 billion ($1.2 billion) for the first phase of its Andalusian Green Hydrogen Valley. The final investment decision cleared the way for construction to begin in the coming weeks. Significantly, Moeve will hold a 51% majority stake. The remaining share will be owned by Masdar and Enalter.

Enalter is majority controlled by Enagás Renovable, a pioneer in renewable gas development. Meanwhile, Masdar brings global clean energy expertise from Abu Dhabi.

This first phase, called Onuba, will install 300 megawatts (MW) of electrolyser capacity in southern Spain. Moreover, the company kept the option to expand the project by another 100 MW, subject to grid access and board approval.

Onuba: A Strategic Project With European Backing

The Onuba project will be the largest green hydrogen facility in southern Europe once operational. It carries a total investment of over €1 billion. That includes related infrastructure and a dedicated solar power plant for self-consumption.

Importantly, the project secured strong public support. The European Commission classified it as a Project of Common European Interest (PCI). In addition, the Spanish government awarded €304 million in funding under its Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan. This support came through the EU’s NextGenerationEU program under the Hydrogen Valleys scheme.

Such backing places the project at the center of Europe’s industrial decarbonization strategy. Brussels aims to reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels while scaling domestic clean energy production.

Ownership Mix Boosts Financing

This ownership mix reflects a wider shift in global capital. Gulf and European investors are increasingly channeling funds into hydrogen infrastructure. Notably, Moeve itself is owned by Mubadala, Abu Dhabi’s sovereign fund, and U.S. private equity firm Carlyle. As a result, the project benefits from deep financial backing and international reach.

Production Capacity and Climate Impact

• At 300 MW, Onuba will produce about 45,000 tonnes of green hydrogen per year. This output will help avoid around 250,000 tonnes of CO₂ annually.

Simply put, the emissions reduction equals more than the total emissions generated by passenger vehicles with internal combustion engines in the Spanish cities of Huelva, Cádiz, and Jaén.

The hydrogen produced will serve multiple sectors. It will support aviation fuels, road transport, and marine fuels. In addition, it will help decarbonize chemical and fertilizer industries. Therefore, the project directly targets hard-to-abate sectors.

Solving the Grid Bottleneck

Grid access has slowed many hydrogen projects across Europe. However, Moeve recently secured a connection to the Spanish electricity grid. This approval came at a crucial time.

Besides grid power, the project will use a dedicated solar plant. This hybrid model will stabilize the electricity supply and improve the plant’s carbon intensity profile.

Access to renewable electricity remains essential. Green hydrogen only delivers climate benefits when powered by clean energy. Therefore, Andalusia’s strong solar resources give the region a clear advantage.

Furthermore, the region’s port infrastructure could support exports of hydrogen derivatives such as ammonia to northern European markets. This strengthens Spain’s ambition to become a renewable energy exporter.

Moeve’s Broader €8 Billion Transition Plan

The hydrogen valley forms part of Moeve’s broader €8 billion transition strategy. Formerly known as Cepsa, the company rebranded in 2024 to signal its shift toward low-carbon businesses.

Since 2022, Moeve sold most of its oil production assets, including operations in Abu Dhabi and South America. It redirected that capital into renewables, biofuels, and hydrogen.

This capital reallocation marks a clear pivot. Instead of expanding oil production, the company invested in long-term clean infrastructure.

Financially, the company strengthened its position before making this move. Net profit rose to €341 million last year, compared to €92 million in 2024. This improved profitability provided internal funding capacity for large-scale energy transition projects.

At the same time, Moeve entered non-binding talks with Portuguese energy firm Galp. The companies are exploring a combination of refining, chemicals, and fuel retail businesses. They aim to complete due diligence and possibly reach an agreement by mid-2026.

If successful, consolidation could free up more capital. It could also stabilize legacy businesses during the transition period.

• ALSO SEE: TotalEnergies and Air Liquide to Unleash 53K Tons of Green Hydrogen to Decarbonize Europe

Solving Europe’s Hydrogen Challenge

Low-carbon hydrogen plays a critical role in cutting emissions from industry and transport. The European Union set ambitious goals under its hydrogen strategy and REPowerEU plan. The bloc aims to produce 10 million tonnes of renewable hydrogen and import another 10 million tonnes by 2030.

However, the path remains complex.

Analysts say that by 2030, Europe would need at least 100 gigawatts (GW) of installed electrolyser capacity to meet REPowerEU targets. That implies annual capacity growth of roughly 150% between 2025 and 2030. By comparison, growth between 2020 and 2024 averaged around 45%.

European renewable hydrogen production capacity announced

In addition, regulatory rules for renewable hydrogen, such as strict temporal and geographical correlation requirements, increase development costs. Projects often require extra storage and grid adjustments.

Funding remains another bottleneck. Although the EU structured many subsidies and incentives, approval processes can take 12 to 24 months. These delays risk slowing deployment.

As of December 2024, about 60% of Europe’s renewable hydrogen production ambition was covered by national targets. Member states must better align policies and accelerate ramp-up if the EU hopes to meet 2030 goals.

A Fast-Growing Market

Despite challenges, market growth remains strong. The European green hydrogen market was valued at around $4.85 billion in 2024. Analysts expect it to reach nearly $147.88 billion by 2034. This implies a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 40.7% between 2025 and 2034.

Several factors drive this expansion:

• Rising demand for net-zero solutions
• Decarbonization pressure on heavy industry
• Expanding renewable energy capacity
• Policy incentives and carbon pricing

By technology, alkaline electrolysers dominated the market in 2024, holding about 45% share. These systems remain cost-competitive and proven at scale.

Why This Project Matters

Moeve’s Andalusian Green Hydrogen Valley signals more than a single investment. It highlights three broader trends. First, capital is shifting from oil to clean infrastructure. Second, Europe is backing hydrogen with serious public funding. Third, Spain is emerging as a strategic clean energy exporter.

If executed successfully, Onuba could become a cornerstone of Europe’s hydrogen economy. More importantly, it shows that large-scale projects are moving from ambition to action. Thus, in a decade defined by energy transition, this €1 billion decision may mark a turning point for southern Europe’s clean industrial future.

• READ MORE: EU Greenlights Nearly €1 Billion for Green Hydrogen Projects

The post Moeve, Masdar, and Enalter Partner on Southern Europe’s Largest Green Hydrogen Project appeared first on Carbon Credits.

Disseminated on behalf of Surge Battery Metals Inc.

Electric vehicles (EVs) are central to the global shift away from fossil fuels. EV sales continue to rise each year. Analysts estimate that global lithium demand may grow to over 2.8 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) by 2030 as EVs and grid storage expand.

Battery energy storage systems (BESS) are another major source of demand. Shipments of stationary storage batteries are forecast to grow around 50% in 2025, driven by renewable energy and grid needs.

Growth in both EVs and energy storage is pushing demand for lithium and other battery minerals higher. Many forecasts suggest lithium demand could more than triple by 2030 versus today’s levels.

These trends are visible in price movements. Lithium prices have risen sharply in recent years. They might hit high levels if demand keeps exceeding supply growth.

Despite some volatility in the market, long-term demand remains robust because EVs and BESS use large amounts of lithium per unit. Cell chemistries like lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) are expanding, further increasing lithium use across applications.

Tight Supply, Rising Risk: The Global Lithium Bottleneck

Global lithium supply is strained by rapid growth in demand. Supply forecasts have shifted from a modest surplus in 2024 to potential deficits as early as the mid-2020s.

BESS is a key factor. It could account for 30–36% of total lithium demand by 2030, according to major banking forecasts.

At the same time, much of the world’s lithium refining and battery production capacity remains concentrated outside the U.S., especially in China. This concentration raises supply chain risks for North American manufacturers and automakers.

Domestic supply development has not kept pace with demand. Historically, the U.S. produced only a small fraction of the total lithium supply, even though it sits on large known lithium resources.

These factors have pushed companies and governments to speed up new projects and improve local production skills.

Federal Strategy: Building a Domestic Supply Chain

The U.S. government has passed several policies to strengthen the EV supply chain and domestic critical minerals base. Key federal actions include incentives, regulations, and strategic planning. These efforts involve several agencies, like the Department of Energy (DOE) and the Department of Defense (DoD).

Programs like the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) provide tax incentives for EV manufacturing and battery production. These incentives emphasize sourcing from the U.S. and allied countries to reduce reliance on foreign supply chains. The DOE also funds energy storage research, materials processing, and efforts to scale domestic industrial capacity.

The FY26 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) includes provisions that support critical materials production and supply chain resilience in the defense sector. It broadens the Defense Industrial Base Fund’s authority. Now, it includes support for domestic production and modernization projects, including batteries and related infrastructure. 

The law sets rules on buying certain key minerals and advanced batteries from non-allied foreign sources. Over a phased timeline, DoD must avoid sourcing these materials from “foreign entities of concern,” such as those linked to China and other designated countries. They must expedite the qualification of compliant domestic and allied suppliers.

The NDAA also requires the Department of Defense to assess weaknesses in key material supply chains. It promotes programs for stockpiling, recycling, and reuse to reduce reliance on imports. These federal actions support U.S. projects that provide lithium, nickel, and other battery materials. They boost confidence for investors and the industry in the domestic supply chain.

Inside the Battery Metals Economy

Lithium’s role in the EV supply chain is clear: it is a core input for lithium-ion batteries. Long-term demand forecasts for lithium reflect this central position. Some market forecasts project global lithium demand to rise to 3–4 million tonnes LCE by 2030, depending on EV market growth assumptions.

Price forecasts vary but generally reflect tightening supply. Some analysts estimate lithium prices could continue to rise if supply fails to match demand growth. Lithium carbonate spot prices recently jumped to $24,086, a 191%+ increase from July 2025. 

Nickel and cobalt remain important for certain battery chemistries, even as some EV makers move toward low-cobalt or cobalt-free chemistries. All these metals are part of the broader battery metals ecosystem that underpins the EV supply chain.

Beyond EVs, electric grid storage, industrial batteries, and portable electronics all contribute to long-term demand. Even conservative estimates show sustained growth in battery-grade materials over the coming decade.

Nevada’s Lithium Anchor: NILI and Its Role in the U.S. Supply Chain

Surge Battery Metals (TSX-V: NILI; OTCQX: NILIF; FRA: DJ5) stands out as a lithium exploration and development company focused on the Nevada North Lithium Project (NNLP).

NNLP hosts one of the highest-grade lithium clay resources in the United States. Its inferred resource of approximately 11.2 million tonnes of LCE at an average grade above 3,000 ppm positions it well above many domestic peers.

• SEE MORE: Why Grade Matters More Than Ever in Lithium Clay Projects

This high quality makes the resource attractive for future development. A Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) indicates strong economics. It shows a net present value of about US$9.2 billion and an internal rate of return of over 22%. This reflects the project’s strong potential.

The project’s operating cost metrics are also competitive, with estimated costs significantly lower than those of many North American rivals.

NNLP’s shallow geology and proximity to infrastructure help keep capital and processing costs down. The project sits near power lines, highways, and existing mining hubs in Nevada.

Recent drilling programs continue to show promising results. In 2025, the focus was on infill drilling and core sampling. These efforts aim to upgrade resources and prepare for prefeasibility work. Results show thick lithium clay layers, which boost confidence in the project’s size and consistency.

More recently, Surge reported additional strong drill results from Nevada North. The company announced a 31-meter intercept grading 4,196 ppm lithium from surface in a 640-meter step-out hole to the southeast. This step-out extends mineralization about 640 meters beyond the current resource footprint, confirming the strong continuity of high-grade lithium. 

The intercept grade is well above the project’s current average resource grade of about 3,000 ppm lithium. Near-surface mineralization also reduces stripping requirements and supports efficient future development. These results strengthen the project’s scale and reinforce its role as a growing domestic lithium source.

Surge has also secured strategic partnerships. A joint venture with Evolution Mining will speed up exploration and development. This partnership will increase land holdings by over 21,000 acres of promising land.

The company has been recognized for performance in the market, including being named a Top 50 performer on the TSX Venture Exchange in 2024.

Surge Battery Metals plans to improve metallurgical testing for lithium chemicals with over 99% purity. This will help supply battery makers and energy storage companies with high-quality products.

Its management team brings both industry and policy experience, including executives with track records in lithium development and the energy sectors.

The New Energy Reality: Demand, Security, and Strategic Supply

Surge Battery Metals’ project aligns well with broader U.S. efforts to strengthen domestic supply chains for critical battery metals. With rising demand for lithium, NNLP provides a high-quality, near-surface resource. This could greatly benefit the EV and energy storage battery markets.

Domestic projects, such as NNLP, reduce reliance on imports. They can also gain from federal incentives that promote U.S.-based production and processing. This strategic fit makes the project more relevant to policymakers, investors, and supply chain planners.

For policymakers, projects such as NNLP help diversify sources of critical minerals and build resilience against global market disruptions. For investors, strong project economics and top-quality resources offer a way to create value as market demand increases.

The U.S. EV supply chain race centers on securing reliable sources of battery metals. Lithium remains at the heart of this transition, driven by both EV and energy storage demand. Strong long-term demand forecasts and tighter supply show the need for new domestic sources.

The federal strategy backs this shift with policy incentives, funding, and programs. These focus on resilient, locally sourced materials. This environment favors projects that are high quality, well-positioned, and strategically relevant.

Surge Battery Metals and its Nevada North Lithium Project represent one such opportunity within the U.S. critical minerals strategy. NILI has solid resources, low costs, and important partnerships. This enables the company to strengthen the U.S. supply chain for lithium and other battery metals. This alignment shows how market forces and policy priorities shape the future of EVs, energy storage, and clean energy infrastructure.

• READ MORE: Surge Battery Metals Strengthens Nevada North With High-Grade Expansion and Infill Success

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New Era Publishing Inc. and/or CarbonCredits.com (“We” or “Us”) are not securities dealers or brokers, investment advisers, or financial advisers, and you should not rely on the information herein as investment advice. Surge Battery Metals Inc. (“Company”) made a one-time payment of $75,000 to provide marketing services for a term of three months. None of the owners, members, directors, or employees of New Era Publishing Inc. and/or CarbonCredits.com currently hold, or have any beneficial ownership in, any shares, stocks, or options of the companies mentioned.

This article is informational only and is solely for use by prospective investors in determining whether to seek additional information. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Examples that we provide of share price increases pertaining to a particular issuer from one referenced date to another represent arbitrarily chosen time periods and are no indication whatsoever of future stock prices for that issuer and are of no predictive value.

Our stock profiles are intended to highlight certain companies for your further investigation; they are not stock recommendations or an offer or sale of the referenced securities. The securities issued by the companies we profile should be considered high-risk; if you do invest despite these warnings, you may lose your entire investment. Please do your own research before investing, including reviewing the companies’ SEDAR+ and SEC filings, press releases, and risk disclosures.

It is our policy that the information contained in this profile was provided by the company, extracted from SEDAR+ and SEC filings, company websites, and other publicly available sources. We believe the sources and information are accurate and reliable, but we cannot guarantee them.

CAUTIONARY STATEMENT AND FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATION

Certain statements contained in this news release may constitute “forward-looking information” within the meaning of applicable securities laws. Forward-looking information generally can be identified by words such as “anticipate,” “expect,” “estimate,” “forecast,” “plan,” and similar expressions suggesting future outcomes or events. Forward-looking information is based on current expectations of management; however, it is subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated.

These factors include, without limitation, statements relating to the Company’s exploration and development plans, the potential of its mineral projects, financing activities, regulatory approvals, market conditions, and future objectives. Forward-looking information involves numerous risks and uncertainties and actual results might differ materially from results suggested in any forward-looking information. These risks and uncertainties include, among other things, market volatility, the state of financial markets for the Company’s securities, fluctuations in commodity prices, operational challenges, and changes in business plans.

Forward-looking information is based on several key expectations and assumptions, including, without limitation, that the Company will continue with its stated business objectives and will be able to raise additional capital as required. Although management of the Company has attempted to identify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially, there may be other factors that cause results not to be as anticipated, estimated, or intended.

There can be no assurance that such forward-looking information will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially. Accordingly, readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking information. Additional information about risks and uncertainties is contained in the Company’s management’s discussion and analysis and annual information form for the year ended December 31, 2025, copies of which are available on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca.

The forward-looking information contained herein is expressly qualified in its entirety by this cautionary statement. Forward-looking information reflects management’s current beliefs and is based on information currently available to the Company. The forward-looking information is made as of the date of this news release, and the Company assumes no obligation to update or revise such information to reflect new events or circumstances except as may be required by applicable law.

Carboncredits.com receives compensation for this publication and has a business relationship with any company whose stock(s) is/are mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: This communication serves the sole purpose of adding value to the research process and is for information only. Please do your own due diligence. Every investment in securities mentioned in publications of carboncredits.com involves risks that could lead to a total loss of the invested capital.

Please read our Full RISKS and DISCLOSURE here.

Carboncredits.com receives compensation for this publication and has a business relationship with any company whose stock(s) is/are mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: This communication serves the sole purpose of adding value to the research process and is for information only. Please do your own due diligence. Every investment in securities mentioned in publications of carboncredits.com involves risks that could lead to a total loss of the invested capital.

Please read our Full RISKS and DISCLOSURE here.

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