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Andreas Sieber is head of political strategy at 350.org. Shady Khalil is a senior global policy strategist at Oil Change International.

COP31 will take place in the context of what Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency, has called the “biggest energy crisis in history”an extraordinary warning from a typically measured leader. A UN climate summit that fails to address fossil fuel dependency, energy affordability and energy access will not only fail politically; it will fail economically and socially too.

The last COP in Belém created several important building blocks: a Global Implementation Accelerator, a Just Transition Mechanism, the climate finance work programme, an expanded Action Agenda linked to the first Global Stocktake (GST1), and the Presidency-led Belém Roadmaps on forests and transitioning away from fossil fuels (TAFF).

But COP31 will need to move from frameworks to delivery. The historic first international conference on the transition away from fossil fuels in Santa Marta, Colombia, in April added further momentum to this agenda.

Development hit to importing nations

The countries paying the highest price for fossil fuel volatility are not the richest countries. The cost of dependency on fossil fuels is hitting importing low-income countries the hardest. Over three-quarters of the world’s population lives in countries that are net importers of fossil fuels. High energy prices push up food costs. Inflation fuels political instability. Debt burdens deepen. The fossil fuel crisis has become a development crisis. That is why COP31 matters.

The Presidency-led Belém Roadmaps on forests and TAFF are expected to be presented at COP31. The next step should be obvious: countries need domestic roadmaps showing how they will actually implement the transition at home.

    A growing number are expected to develop such plans. COP31 should encourage them to put together domestic implementation roadmaps for shifting off fossil fuels that have concrete milestones, sectoral targets, investment strategies and policy measures.

    At the same time, these processes must recognise that countries do not share the same starting points, capacities or development needs. For some, this may take the form of comprehensive roadmaps to phase out production and consumption, while for others the priority may be economic diversification, industrial transformation or expanding energy access and energy sovereignty.

    Risk of disorderly transition

    Without credible planning and international cooperation, the transition risks being too slow and increasingly chaotic, with fossil fuel demand destruction occurring through rationing, price shocks and de-industrialisation rather than through a managed socially just transformation.

    This stands in direct contrast to the GST commitment to an “orderly” transition away from fossil fuels. Domestic roadmaps can help chart more stable coordinated pathways that reduce social disruption while contributing to geopolitical and economic stability.

    Türkiye and Australia should show leadership as the upcoming COP hosts. For Türkiye, this is particularly urgent given the absence of a coal phase-out date. Price spikes for oil and gas have siphoned around $3 billion from ordinary people and businesses in Türkiye in the first two months of the current crisis alone, calculations by 350.org show.

    Australia faces a different credibility challenge. While positioning itself as a renewable energy powerhouse, it also remains one of the world’s largest fossil fuel expanders and is facing calls to tax its fossil fuel exports.

    Watch CHN’s webinar: From Santa Marta to Bonn – where next for the fossil fuel transition?

    According to Oil Change International, four Global North countries — the US, Canada, Norway and Australia — are responsible for nearly 70% of projected new oil and gas expansion between 2025 and 2035, equivalent to around three times the annual emissions of all coal-fired power plants worldwide.

    Paragraph 36 of the Mutirão decision agreed at COP30 already invites governments to submit implementation and investment plans for their national NDC climate plans. Domestic TAFF roadmaps could become a practical way to operationalise that commitment, while also creating space for countries to define national pathways aligned with their own development priorities and constraints.

    This matters because some of the most politically difficult elements of the first Global Stocktake in 2023 — especially the transition away from fossil fuels and halting deforestation — are where implementation lags furthest behind rhetoric. Governments continue to endorse transition goals but must more seriously address the harder questions: how workers are protected, how grids are modernised, how industries adapt, and how countries finance the shift while maintaining economic development and energy access.

    Roadmaps for coordination and clarity

    Domestic TAFF roadmaps can help answer those questions. They allow governments to coordinate internally across ministries and externally with investors, development banks and international partners. They can provide clarity on timelines, infrastructure needs, financing gaps, industrial strategy and social protection. Most importantly, they can help ensure the transition is not only fast, but fair.

    The first countries willing to develop credible transition roadmaps could also help rebuild international trust. They would demonstrate that a managed phase-out of fossil fuels can support economic development, create jobs, improve energy security and expand energy access rather than undermine them. That’s the spirit of the Santa Marta conference that now needs to be emulated.

    This is also becoming a geo-economic issue. In a world increasingly shaped by bilateral deals, industrial competition and fragmented trade relations, countries with credible transition plans will be more insulated from global fossil fuel shocks, far better positioned to negotiate on debt restructure and cancellation, climate finance, technology transfer and industrial policy. Governments that know where they are going can shape the transition to their advantage.

    Solar panels and wind turbines at the Vopak Solarpark in the industrial port of Eemshaven, Netherlands. (Photo: IMAGO/Jochen Tack via Reuters Connect)

    Solar panels and wind turbines at the Vopak Solarpark in the industrial port of Eemshaven, Netherlands. (Photo: IMAGO/Jochen Tack via Reuters Connect)

    Leaders’ support needed

    COP31 also presents Türkiye and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan with a rare diplomatic opportunity. At a moment of growing fragmentation between North and South — and between East and West — Türkiye could utilise its role as a middle power and serve as a bridge-builder capable of restoring high-level political momentum to the climate process and convene a leaders summit with wide attendance.

    Leaders attending COP31 should help countries agree that TAFF roadmaps are a practical way to turn climate promises into real action. These roadmaps would reflect national realities while identifying needs for international and regional cooperation, including on financing and barriers to transition such as debt burdens, technology access and trade rules.

    Ultimately, roadmaps for transitioning away from fossil fuels are roadmaps for economic resilience, energy security, and political stability in a far more volatile world.

    The post COP31 must persuade countries to make fossil fuel transition plans  appeared first on Climate Home News.

    COP31 must persuade countries to make fossil fuel transition plans 

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    DeBriefed 29 May 2026: Europe’s ‘mind-boggling’ May | Indian heat deaths | Nigeria’s solar mini-grids

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    Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
    An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.

    This week

    UK, Europe and India battle heatwaves

    ‘MIND-BOGGLING’ MAY: The UK and continental Europe have set “mind-boggingly crazy”  temperature records for May amid a deadly heatwave, reported the Financial Times. According to the Associated Press, the UK “smashed a century-old temperature record for the second time in 24 hours on Tuesday”. The newswire added that records “also fell in France, where temperatures reached 36C on Monday in the country’s south-west”. On Wednesday, Portugal hit a record May temperature of 40.3C, said BBC News.

    ‘BRUTAL REMINDER’:  In parts of Italy, the heatwave triggered blackouts, reported Reuters. The heatwave has also been linked to more than a dozen deaths in the UK and France, including from people drowning and suffering heat-related deaths while competing in sporting events, said ABC News. Simon Stiell, the executive secretary of UN Climate Change, said the intense heatwaves were a “brutal reminder” of the cost of global warming, reported Politico. Carbon Brief has in-depth coverage of the record-shattering heatwave.
    INDIA’S DEADLY HEAT: In the southern Indian states of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, more than 100 people died within three days following an intense heatwave, reported the Khaleej Times. The publication noted that authorities urged people to stay indoors and avoid direct exposure to the heat. Meanwhile, some parts of India are “grappling with power cuts as record-breaking heat has pushed electricity demand ​to an all-time high”, reported Reuters.

    Around the world

    • CRUDE DIPS: The International Energy Agency (IEA) said global investments in oil projects will fall below $500bn in 2026, continuing a three-year decline, reported Bloomberg. Carbon Brief’s analysis of the data shows the US’s “data-centre boom” means it is now investing more in fossil-fuel power than China.
    • DODGING NET-ZERO: The world’s biggest miner, Australian giant BHP, has backtracked on climate action by halting or delaying projects to cut “vast” amounts of emissions, according to a Guardian investigation.
    • SOLAR SLIP: China’s new solar installations dropped for a fourth straight month, reflecting weakening domestic demand, said Bloomberg.
    • NO LOGGING: Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon fell last year to its lowest level since 2019, according to a new report, said Agence France-Presse.
    • EXECUTIVE ACTION: Puerto Rico’s governor announced a state of emergency to fight a surge in coastal erosion, citing the need to protect natural resources and vulnerable communities, reported the Associated Press.

    Four million

    The number of homes in the UK with air conditioning, double the figure from three years ago, reported the Guardian. There are 29m households in the UK.


    Latest climate research

    • Carbon Brief will soon be launching a new fortnightly newsletter focused on climate research. Sign up for free today.
    • LGBTQ+ households in the US are “significantly more likely” to face energy poverty and insecurity than the general population | Energy Research & Social Science
    • Global rice-paddy greenhouse gas emissions have doubled over the past six decades | Nature Food
    • Vegetation greening and human-caused warming are the “main drivers” of a surge in flash floods over the last decade | Science Advances

    (For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)

    Captured

    Map of the UK showing that at least 67 NHS sites have been forced to close due to weather-related flooding since 2021

    A Carbon Brief investigation has shed light on the impact of weather-related flooding on National Health Service (NHS) facilities across the UK. At least 67 NHS hospital wards, departments and other sites have been forced to temporarily close or relocate due to weather-related flooding. The chart above shows sites of weather-related flooding incidents at NHS facilities. The size of the circles indicates the number of incidents reported at each site.

    Spotlight

    How solar mini-grids can ‘help boost’ Nigeria’s economy

    This week, Carbon Brief covers a new report on Nigeria’s solar mini-grid industry.

    Amid the impact of the US-Iran war on the Nigerian economy, a new report has argued that solar-mini grids can help to reduce the country’s reliance on fossil fuels and create more than 200,000 jobs.

    In Nigeria, Africa’s third-largest economy, the war has led to an increase in energy prices and a decrease in petrol consumption. Petrol is one of the country’s main sources of transport and household fuel. According to one estimate, prices have surged by up to 40% since the conflict commenced in February.

    Although the Nigerian treasury has benefited from rising crude oil prices – the country is a major exporter of oil and gas – the impact has been most visible on the wider population.

    Rising energy prices “have affected the purchasing power of workers”, Agnes Funmi Sessi, a labour union leader in Lagos, told Carbon Brief.

    However, scaling the deployment of solar “mini-grids” could help the country move away from fossil fuels, stimulate rural economies and improve livelihoods, according to the new report authored by the thinktank, the Africa Policy Research Institute.

    “We estimate that, by deploying over 10,000 mini-grids, the sector could create 212,688 direct full-time informal and productive-use jobs across the off-grid and under-grid market segments,” the report said.

    A nascent industry

    Solar “mini-grids” are small-scale, localised electricity generation and distribution systems powered by solar panels.

    The report positioned Nigeria’s mini-grid sector as one of the fastest-growing in Africa, with the country having just 11 mini-grids in 2015 and 155 by 2024, along with at least 42 active developers.

    Many of the companies within the sector are young and apply novel local techniques in their deployment of solar technology, the report said.

    However, access to finance remains a huge barrier. According to the report, the sector may require up to $8bn to connect 35.4 million people to mini-grids.

    “Most Nigerians want solar power in their homes, but it is a capital intensive business for vendors and customers,” Dr Ben Iheagwara, a renewable energy entrepreneur and policy analyst, told Carbon Brief.

    The report urged the Nigerian government and its international partners to “attract private capital by de-risking investments and ensuring regulatory clarity and long-term planning”.

    Other key recommendations for policymakers and stakeholders include investment in skills development and paying attention to the gender gap.

    Powering rural communities

    Many rural communities, which make up about 37% of the country, are disconnected from the national grid system, so often have to generate their own electricity through mini-grid systems.

    According to Nigeria’s electricity regulator, NERC, a mini-grid is defined as a power generating system with an installed capacity of up to 10 megawatts.

    A mini-grid can be powered by fossil fuels such as diesel or petrol, but solar power is now considered a cheaper and cleaner source.

    With more than 80 million people lacking access to electricity in Nigeria, solar mini-grids are increasingly viewed as the lowest-cost electrification solution, the report said.

    Watch, read, listen

    MOVING FORWARD: The Energy Transition Show dug into electricity reform in South Africa, discussing the country’s coal legacy and the role of renewables.

    ENERGY POVERTY: In an opinion article for Project Syndicate, executive director of the African Climate Foundation, Saliem Fakir, argued that the energy transition in emerging and developing economies is driven by economics and security rather than emissions targets.
    VANISHING CITY: BBC News reported on a coastal community in Nigeria where the ocean has “already swallowed more than half of the town”.

    Coming up

    Pick of the jobs

    DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.

    This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.

    The post DeBriefed 29 May 2026: Europe’s ‘mind-boggling’ May | Indian heat deaths | Nigeria’s solar mini-grids appeared first on Carbon Brief.

    DeBriefed 29 May 2026: Europe’s ‘mind-boggling’ May | Indian heat deaths | Nigeria’s solar mini-grids

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    Q&A: How can African electricity access power jobs not just lightbulbs?

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    At the African Development Bank (AfDB) annual meetings this week, several African leaders called for investments in electricity infrastructure which go beyond lighting homes to powering economies.

    Applauding the AfDB for its energy programmes like Mission 300 – which aims to provide electricity access to 300 million Africans by 2030 – the Central African Republic’s President Faustin-Archange Touadera said that without power supply “we will not be able to achieve development”.

    Speaking alongside him, the Republic of Congo’s President Denis Sassou Nguesso echoed this, saying that “as we need to help our people to turn towards agriculture, to turn towards livestock rearing, we also need to provide power to them.”

    As the Mission 300 initiative advances, attention is increasingly shifting from simply connecting households to ensuring that electricity access translates into economic opportunities and livelihoods. That shift is driving the launch of a new Centre of Excellence for Productive Use of Energy being developed under Mission 300 by the philanthropically funded Global Energy Alliance for People and Planet (GEAPP).

      In an interview with Climate Home News, Carol Koech, GEAPP’s vice president for Africa, said the initiative is designed to ensure that electrification supports income generation, agriculture and local economic development rather than only basic household access.

      Q: What is the Centre of Excellence for Productive Use of Energy aiming to achieve with Mission 300?

      A: Mission 300 is increasingly being seen as a job platform and so the role of the Centre of Excellence in translating those electricity connections to jobs. So we want the centre to do four things. First, as a delivery engine, which enables countries to embed a cross-institutional advisor that supports the electrification components, but also other components that are happening in the country.

      Second, we want the centre to be an innovation and strategy hub. Today, there’s really no place where you can go to find the state of the industry for productive use of energy across the globe, and we want to make the centre of excellence the place where you can go and get information about what technologies are available, where deployment is happening and how much is being deployed.

      Campaigners in Africa are demanding their governments stop the development of fossil fuels on the continent and embrace the opportunities of renewable energy
      (Photo: Lighting Global/SunCulture/World Bank)

      The third pillar is to coordinate and mobilise capital. We anticipate the centre coordinating internally within the ecosystem but also mobilising additional financing to help productivity. The last piece is how to scale businesses, enterprises and partnerships around this centre because we anticipate that as we grow this space, new industries will emerge and those industries will need to be supported.

      Q: Why is productive use of energy becoming important under Mission 300?

      A: Mission 300 gave us a bigger platform to demonstrate that energy is truly an enabler for economic development. It’s not sufficient to just provide a connection, but it is required that that connection truly translates to economic development for the communities that benefit.

      We shouldn’t bring electricity and then start thinking about what people can do with it. We need to think about both at the same time and ensure electricity arrives together with the things that will make a difference in people’s lives. Historically, we’ve brought electricity and imagined a miracle would happen, but we know that hasn’t been the case.

      The question is how to ensure universal access in the cheapest way while still transforming communities. Some mini-grids have been deployed in places where demand is extremely low, making them too expensive to sustain. But when mini-grids are paired with productive uses, the economics start to change. If businesses currently running on fossil fuel generators move to solar or renewable energy, operating costs fall and the business case for mini-grids becomes much stronger.

      Q: How could this work in practice for agriculture and rural communities?

      A: I’ll give you a practical example in our pilot country Zambia. Zambia has two programmes, they have the ASCENT programme for energy access and they also have the Zambia agribusiness and trade platform (ZATP). Some of the components of the ZATP programme – which is an agri-business program to help farmers to be productive – have a productive use component but don’t have an energy supply component. So we’re offering things like mills, processing facilities, irrigation and others. In some parts of Zambia, these productive use equipment has been supplied but has not been powered, so communities are not benefiting from that.

      So the whole point is if we coordinate where the agribusiness programme is deployed together with where the energy access programme is deployed and layer those two programmes together in one place, then you could solve the energy access problem and solve productive use together and therefore have really meaningful outcomes for communities.

      Q: How will the centre help both households and small businesses use electricity productively?

      A: The question on whether we should electrify households or businesses is neither here nor there. We need to electrify all. The argument is really once we electrify businesses, the owners of those businesses will be able to pay what they need for their households as well as increase production for their businesses.

      Electricity consumption is usually an indicator of economic development and by pushing productive use into households, especially where households are also smallholder farmers, the question becomes: how can electricity access translate to additional economic development for them? If you are connected onto a mini-grid, then you can actually use that connection to run irrigation, put in a dryer, or a cold storage system, whatever you require to improve your income but the fact that you have energy means that you can access productive use. Now, we need to ask ourselves how do these farmers or these households then get access to these appliances, because that’s another barrier.

      Q&A: Will subsidy cuts for Chinese clean-tech exports hurt Africa’s solar boom?

      The cost of these appliances is usually extremely high, and when you have programmes such as the ZATP running in Zambia, that’s already a public funding approach to making these appliances available and potentially reachable for farmers, either at household level, at farm level or at community level.

      Q: How does this complement the already existing Mission 300 national energy compacts designed by countries?

      A: Each of the national energy compacts have a productive use component, a pillar that talks about distributed renewable energy, productive use, and clean cooking. This is actually complementing the work of the countries, and this centre is like an available support, back office for countries to tap into as they implement their national energy compacts, if they have specific requirements and support for that pillar three.

      So the advisers that will be embedded into countries, their role is to coordinate within country programs that are running where energy could make a difference. The advisers will be sourced from the country and so they will make sure that the donor money is coordinated to benefit the country fully. Their role will include going to ministries of agriculture or any related ministries and understanding where they are prioritising programmes that require electrification. In many cases, programmes and money have already been allocated, but this component is about how do we deploy it in a way that it actually truly brings a difference, so those advisers will do that.

      Q: How will the centre address financing and private sector investment challenges?

      A: What we’re really looking at is different financing mechanisms. In the past, we have provided subsidies and results-based financing to suppliers, distributors and manufacturers to help create markets for productive-use appliances. I see this as one mechanism the centre could use, but the bigger opportunity is aligning public funding across different programmes so that more of it can support productive uses, either through direct funding or subsidies.

      Nigerians bet on solar as global oil shock hits wallets and power supplies

      When it comes to private sector investment, the reality is that Africa’s energy sector still faces serious constraints. Most private investment has gone into power generation, particularly through independent power producers, and even then that has only been possible in places where the off-takers, usually utilities, are bankable.

      To unlock more private capital, countries need the right policies, reforms and regulations, but even more importantly, utilities must become financially viable. If the off-taker is not bankable, then the project is not bankable.

      Another major question is how to attract private investment into transmission infrastructure. There are different models being explored, but the reality is that public funding alone is not sufficient to achieve Mission 300, so finding new ways to mobilise private capital will be critical.

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      AI boom means US is now ‘investing more’ in fossil-fuel power than China

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      The “data-centre boom” is driving a surge in gas investment in the US, pushing its fossil-power spending ahead of China, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

      A rapid expansion of data centres across the nation is at the heart of the US tech sector’s plans to continue “dominat[ing]” the global artificial intelligence (AI) industry.

      High demand for electricity to power these data centres has led to companies rushing to build new gas-fired power plants across the country.

      This trend, combined with “soaring” gas-turbine prices, drove a threefold increase in US gas‑power investment in 2025 – and the IEA expects this to continue throughout 2026.

      As the chart below shows, Chinese investment in coal- and gas-fired power is expected to drop this year, amid domestic policy changes and the Iran war sending gas prices spiralling.

      Together, these trends mean the IEA expects US investment in fossil-fuelled power plants to overtake China’s in 2026.

      Annual investment in fossil-fuel power in China and the US
      Annual investment in fossil-fuel power in China and the US, $bn. The figure for 2026 is an IEA estimate, based on current trends. Source: IEA.

      The IEA’s latest world energy investment report shows that spending on renewables and electricity grids continues to dominate at the global scale.

      In the US, Trump administration policies such as the phase-out of tax credits for renewables has led to the IEA revising its forecast for new wind and solar power downwards.

      At the same time, US electricity demand is expected to rise by an average of 2% per year from 2026 to 2030, with data centres contributing half of the overall increase.

      This is leading to what the IEA calls an “AI-driven push” to build new gas-power plants in the US, the world’s largest data-centre market and largest gas producer.

      Globally, orders for new gas-power plants increased to 130 gigawatts (GW) in 2025 – a 25-year high – and US demand was a “major factor” in this, according to the IEA.

      Much of the demand is coming from tech companies in the US seeking to bypass grid connection queues by building “captive” gas-power plants.

      As the chart below shows, since the start of 2025 these US captive data centres alone have signed off on more investment in new gas turbines than any country in the world – aside from the US itself.

      Total value of new gas generation final investment decisions
      Total value of new gas generation final investment decisions by country, region or use-case, between 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, $bn. Source: IEA.

      Overall, investment in grid upgrades, power equipment and electricity generation to support the buildout of data-centre infrastructure around the world hit $105bn in 2025, according to the IEA.

      This is more than the total invested in the energy sector across the whole of Africa – a continent where more than 600 million people do not have access to electricity.

      The IEA notes that strong demand for gas-power plants for data centres in the US – and, to a lesser extent, the Middle East – is “limiting the availability of turbines for near-term deployment elsewhere in the world”.

      The agency also points out that as the tech sector becomes a “major energy investor”, accounting for around 40% of all corporate power-purchase agreements, it is also “underpinning momentum” for emerging clean technologies, such as small modular nuclear reactors and advanced geothermal.

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