Brazil’s new climate pledge, launched at the COP29 climate summit in Baku, aims to cut greenhouse gas emissions by as much as two-thirds by 2035 compared to 2005 levels.
The new pledge makes Brazil one of the first countries to release its latest plan – known as a “nationally determined contribution” (NDC) – ahead of the February 2025 deadline.
NDCs are updated every five years under the Paris Agreement, with countries outlining how they intend to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as part of global efforts to limit warming.
Brazil is hosting the next UN climate summit, COP30, in November 2025, where NDCs from all around the world will be assessed.
Brazil’s submission is keenly watched as it is one of the largest economies in the world, as well as a top-10 annual and historical emitter. It is also the world’s most biodiverse country, hosting tens of thousands of animal and plant species, with major biomes such as the Amazon and Cerrado.
In order to implement the NDC, Brazil will also be updating its national climate plan, which will include national mitigation and adaptation strategies. These will be broken down into 16 sectoral adaptation plans and seven sectoral mitigation plans, “which are intended to be finalised around the mid[dle of] 2025”.
The NDC sets two headline targets: a “less ambitious” target of cutting emissions to 1.05bn tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) by 2035; and a more ambitious target, which would mean cutting emissions to 0.85GtCO2e by 2035.
These would result in a 59% or 67% reduction in emissions, respectively, compared to 2005 levels.
A 2016 pledge from Brazil set reduction targets of 37% by 2025 and 43% by 2030 – corresponding, respectively, to emissions levels of 1.3GtCO2e and 1.2GtCO2e.
The new targets are “ambitious, but also feasible”, Brazil’s vice-president Geraldo Alckmin told COP29.
The establishment of dual targets is a “confirmation that [Brazil] could do much more” when it comes to its ambition, Claudio Angelo, the international policy coordinator at Brazilian climate NGO group Observatório do Clima, tells Carbon Brief.
A technical note from this group warns that, while other countries – including Brazil – previously included a “band” of targets in their NDCs, the size of Brazil’s target range “creates complications to both analysis and implementation”.
Below, Carbon Brief analyses Brazil’s NDC to identify five key points that will define the country’s emissions trajectory over the next decade.
- Combat deforestation and restore degraded lands
- Fossil fuels and energy transition
- ‘Sustainable’ expansion of agricultural production
- Funding the transition, including carbon markets
- Adaptation and sustainable development
1. Combat deforestation and restore degraded lands
Since his 2022 election win, Brazil’s president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has pledged to reach “zero deforestation” in the country by 2030.
The country’s new NDC, however, does not explicitly contain this pledge.
The plan outlines the “coordinated and continuous efforts to achieve zero deforestation, by eliminating illegal deforestation and compensating for the legal suppression of native vegetation and the greenhouse gas emissions resulting from it”.
Observatório do Clima, a coalition of Brazilian civil-society organisations, warns that this “still allows high levels of deforestation by 2035” within the higher and lower ends of Brazil’s emissions-cutting target.
Dr Ane Alencar, the director of science at the Amazon Environmental Research Institute (IPAM), notes the uncertainty with illegal deforestation because laws can change over time. She tells Carbon Brief:
“I think it’s important to have a clear target that cannot be challenged. Brazil knows that fighting deforestation is very important for many reasons.”
(Brazil accounts for almost 60% of the Amazon, the world’s largest rainforest.)
A 2023 adjustment to Brazil’s previous NDC committed to reaching zero deforestation by 2030. A 2022 update, sent when former president Jair Bolsonaro was in power, said the country committed to “eliminating illegal deforestation” by 2028.
Forest restoration will be a “key factor” in Brazil’s climate action, the new NDC says, “as it consists of the nature-based removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere and, at the same time, allows the goal of climate neutrality by 2050 to be achieved”.
To halt deforestation and preserve native vegetation, it adds that current restoration work will need to be “strengthen[ed] and deepen[ed]”, with more “positive incentives” to maintain forests and vegetation on private rural properties.
Alencar says that existing incentives against deforestation, such as direct payments to conserve forests, “seem not to be enough”, telling Carbon Brief:
“We need more than payments for these areas, paying them for the environmental services. We need the engagement of the private sector, for example, and we need the engagement of local governments.”
Nonetheless, Alencar notes, the Brazilian government has “done a very good job” to reduce deforestation levels in recent years.
Deforestation rates in the Brazilian section of the Amazon dropped by almost one-third between 2023 and 2024, the NDC said. Deforestation is also falling in the Cerrado after rising in recent years.
Alencar notes that stopping all deforestation is near-impossible, telling Carbon Brief:
“There are many people like smallholders and also some producers that will keep deforesting. It’s part of their rotation system…So zero deforestation, I think, is something hard to reach. But I think we can have deforestation at the minimum level.”
2. Fossil fuels and energy transition
According to Brazil’s new NDC, renewable energy sources – primarily, hydropower, but with growing contributions from wind and solar – already comprise 89.1% of the country’s electricity mix and nearly half of its energy mix.
Still, the document says, the country will “seek to expand electricity generation with an increased share of technology and clean sources”.
Several of the sectoral mitigation plans sit under this overarching goal, including one on energy (including electricity, mining and fuels), one on industry and one on transportation.
In terms of industry, the country will “reduce emissions intensity by progressively replacing fossil fuels with biofuels and electrification”. The NDC also calls for developing carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies in certain industries.
Similarly, the mitigation plan for the transportation sector will seek to “replac[e] fossil fuels with electricity and biofuels”, according to the NDC. It also says that infrastructure improvements will “contribute to an immediate reduction in fuel consumption”.
While there are references to other national plans and policies, there are no specific numerical targets laid out in the NDC for any of these sectors.
The NDC’s 26 “priority issues” include many that relate to creating a legal and regulatory framework to accelerate a transition to clean energy, including on:
- Offshore wind energy production.
- Low-carbon hydrogen production.
- Production of sustainable aviation fuel.
- Carbon dioxide capture and storage.
- Synthetic-fuel production and biofuels.
A technical note published by Observatório do Clima notes that Brazil “keeps silent about its own fossil-fuel expansion plans, implying that the problem is all in the demand side”.
On fossil-fuel phase-out, the NDC quotes the deal struck at COP28, saying:
“Brazil would welcome the launching of international work for the definition of schedules for transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner.”
It caveats that this would be done “with developing countries taking the lead” and reflecting “common but differentiated responsibilities”. (This is the principle that all countries are responsible for addressing climate change, but not to the same degree – and that those more responsible for causing climate change should bear greater responsibility to address it.)
Multiple NGOs have praised this aspect of Brazil’s NDC, with the ECO NGO newsletter calling it a hidden “jewel” in the pledge.
Política por Inteiro, a Brazilian publication from the Talanoa Institute climate-policy thinktank, says that it “demonstrates that Brazil is ready to position itself as a climate leader among oil, gas and coal-producing nations”.
Alencar says the plan could have been more ambitious, but adds that she believes it is notable that Brazil was among the first to submit an updated climate pledge. She tells Carbon Brief:
“Even with all the difficulties we have in Brazil, there is a commitment of the government to actually move forward and be more ambitious [on climate change]. I think they did that, they renewed their commitment and they were more ambitious, even though I think it could be a little bit more. But I think this is an important step.”
3. ‘Sustainable’ expansion of agricultural production
Agriculture is an important sector in Brazil, with agribusiness making up almost half of the country’s exports. The sector also accounts for around a quarter of Brazil’s greenhouse gas emissions each year.
The country produces and exports vast amounts of meat, coffee, soybeans, corn and other products. Brazil intends to encourage and incentivise more “sustainable” agriculture as part of its emission-cutting efforts, the NDC says.
One of the country’s “national mitigation objectives” is to encourage the “widespread adoption of sustainable agricultural and livestock production models with low greenhouse gas emissions, guaranteeing food security for all”, the NDC says.
It adds that, in this sector, Brazil wants to “continue to demonstrate that it is possible to sustainably expand agricultural production while guaranteeing food security and energy security through the sustainable production of biofuels”.
For this, the country will rely on “two fundamental transformations”:
- Converting new areas, mostly from degraded pastures, for agricultural production, while also expanding “integrated systems” where crops, livestock and trees are grown on the same land.
- “Productivity gains” in agriculture through these integrated growing methods and an “increase in high productivity systems”.
The NDC further outlines a number of plans the country has or will put in place to achieve this, such as a 2021 agriculture adaptation plan.
Further agriculture and livestock mitigation and adaptation strategies are among the sectoral plans in development in Brazil, the NDC says. Alencar tells Carbon Brief:
“I think the agriculture sector is one that can provide lots of contribution, by improving their practices, investing in technologies to reduce cattle contributions and also with soil management.”
One “barrier” for emissions-cutting in agriculture is “land grabbing in the Amazon” and other illegal activities, she notes, saying these actions “generate a burden to the sector as a whole”:
“If the Brazilian agriculture sector really goes in the direction of sustainability, then I think it’s possible to actually fulfil the NDC targets. But, the thing is, part of the sector is actually not [going] in that direction.”
Dr Karen Silverwood-Cope, the climate director of the World Resources Institute Brasil, said in a statement:
“To position itself as a climate leader, Brazil must make progress in the energy and agriculture sectors, which are projected to be major sources of pollution in the years to come.”
4. Funding the transition, including carbon markets
Brazil’s new NDC lays out an ecological transformation plan (ETP) for the country, which contains a range of financial mechanisms – both existing and proposed – that can be used to fund the transition to a net-zero economy.
The Amazon Fund is one of the most well-known financial mechanisms for supporting efforts to reduce emissions from deforestation and degradation, with more than 100 projects in its portfolio. Last year, the fund committed R$1.3bn ($226.3m) for such projects.
Brazil’s Climate Fund, established by law in 2009, but “reformulated” last year to include new financial streams, is “one of the main instruments for financing Brazil’s ecological transformation in the short- and medium-term”, according to the NDC.
The plan also points out the benefits of tax reform, noting that Brazil’s simplified consumption tax, amended into the constitution last year, created funds that have been used for “reducing regional and social inequalities”.
Sustainable sovereign bonds are another potential financing source for positive ecological change. (Sovereign bonds are essentially loans issued by the government with the promise of future repayment on a specific date.) The government has pledged to allocate the net proceeds to projects with positive environmental outcomes.
The NDC notes that Brazil issued $2bn in sustainable sovereign bonds in November 2023 and again in June 2024. These funds “will be used to control deforestation, to conserve biodiversity, to replenish the [Climate Fund], with a focus on renewable energy and clean transport, and to programs against poverty and hunger”.
At COP28 in 2022, Brazil proposed the creation of a new financing mechanism, the Tropical Forests Forever Fund (TFFF). The TFFF “uses blended finance to generate financial returns” to pay countries for keeping their forests intact, including allocating a percentage of the funds raised directly to Indigenous peoples.
The NDC also calls for the “approval of the legal framework and regulation of the carbon market” as one of its 26 priority issues.
The Brazilian Congress is currently considering legislation to create the Brazilian emissions trading system, with revenue directed towards encouraging decarbonisation and low-carbon technology development.
The new NDC is the first time that the country “has openly stated its plan to trade emissions reductions with other countries under the rules of the Paris Agreement”, according to Política por Inteiro.
According to the NDC, the government will use the lower-ambition target of 1.05GtCO2e as the “reference for assessing the progress and ambition of future contributions” and, if it surpasses this target, “may” authorise transfers of emissions-reductions up to that level.
Claudio Angelo, international policy coordinator at Observatório do Clima, tells Carbon Brief:
“I think the institutions are there, the tools are there, and this is one of the reasons why we don’t understand why Brazil aimed so low in the NDC – because we have the institutional capacity. We have the finance tools to go much further than we are going.”
5. Adaptation and sustainable development
Adaptation measures – which aim to improve the resilience of populations, ecosystems and species to the impacts of climate change – feature prominently in Brazil’s new climate commitment.
The country will review its national adaptation plan and encourage the creation of local adaptation plans and sectoral plans (16 for adaptation and seven for mitigation) by mid-2025. Such plans will lay out sector-by-sector contributions to emissions reductions.
The NDC also commits to mainstreaming adaptation into policies and projects vulnerable to climate change, promoting public awareness of climate change and transparency and adopting ecosystem-based adaptation approaches.
The government will widen the presence and strengthen the capacities of the three branches of government – Congress, head of state and courts – to implement the goals of the NDC.
Observatório do Clima says the NDC “makes extensive and important references to the topic of adaptation”. It adds:
“This is an extremely relevant issue for a country whose population is already experiencing the consequences of the climate crisis.”
Hand in hand with adaptation, Brazil’s new NDC sets out plans to use the state’s institutional and financial capacity to “foster” sustainable development and a just transition while reducing inequalities.
For example, its national adaptation objectives include increasing the resilience of populations by promoting water and energy security and socioeconomic development.
The NDC mentions a “renewed emphasis on promoting sustainable development” and cites recent policies such as the National Bioeconomy Strategy, which aims to ensure that products and services derived from biological resources are produced in a sustainable way. The bioeconomy strategy will aid the state in conserving biodiversity, decarbonising energy use and promoting recycling of such resources, the NDC says.
Elsewhere, the NDC says that the country aims to develop the Brazilian Sustainable Taxonomy, a classification system of projects that benefit the climate, environment or society.
Additionally, Brazil will expand financing and improve insurance mechanisms for sustainable sectors and practices. It will deploy an investment plan for boosting sustainable development called the Ecological Transformation Plan, comprising various economic instruments to encourage sustainable investments. (See: Funding the transition, including carbon markets.)
Angelo, from Observatório do Clima, tells Carbon Brief:
“Policy-wise, it’s a pretty good NDC. It does mention a series of policies that are already in place or being planned…But the NDC [emissions reduction target] is very weak; it is [not] 1.5C aligned. I would say the direction of travel is right, but the speed is totally wrong.”
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Rudecindo Espíndola’s family has been growing corn, figs and other crops for generations in the Soncor Valley in northern Chile, an oasis of green orchards in one of the driest places on Earth – the Atacama desert.
Perched nearly 2,500 metres above sea level, his village, Toconao, means “lost corner” in the Kunza language of the Indigenous people who have lived and farmed the land in this remote spot for millennia.
“Our deep connection to this place is based on what we have inherited from our ancestors: our culture, our language,” said Espíndola, a member of a local research team that found evidence that people have inhabited the desert for more than 12,000 years.
This distant outpost is at the heart of the global rush for lithium, a silvery-white metal used to make batteries for electric vehicles (EV) and renewable energy storage that are vital to the world’s clean energy transition. The Atacama salt flat is home to about 25% of the world’s known lithium reserves, turning Chile into the world’s second-largest lithium producer after Australia.
For decades, the Atacama’s Indigenous Lickanantay people have protested against the expansion of the lithium industry, warning that the large evaporation ponds used to extract lithium from the brine beneath the salt flats are depleting scarce and sacred water supplies and destroying fragile desert ecosystems.
Espíndola joined the protests, fearing that competition for water could pose an existential threat to his community.
But last year, he was among dozens of Indigenous representatives who sat across the table from executives representing two Chilean mining giants to hammer out a governance model that gives Indigenous communities living close to lithium sites a bigger say over operations, and a greater share of the economic benefits.
A pioneering deal
The agreement is part of a landmark deal between state-owned copper miner Codelco and lithium producer the Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile (SQM) to extract lithium from the salt flats until 2060 through a joint venture called NovaAndino Litio.
The governance model that promises people living in Toconao and other villages around the salt flats millions of dollars in benefits and greater environmental oversight is the first of its kind in mineral-rich Chile, and has been hailed by industry experts as the start of a potential model for more responsible mining for energy transition metals.
NovaAndino told Climate Home News the negotiations with local communities represented an “unprecedented process that has allowed us to incorporate the territory’s vision early in the project’s design” and creates “a system of permanent engagement” with local communities.
The company added it will contribute to sustainable development in the area and help “the safeguarding of [the Lickanantay people’s] culture and environmental values”.
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For mining companies, such agreements could help reduce social conflicts and protests, which have delayed and stalled extraction in other parts of South America’s lithium-rich region, known as the lithium triangle.
“Argentina and Bolivia could learn a lot from what we’re doing [here],” said Rodrigo Guerrero, a researcher at the Santiago-based Espacio Público think-tank, adding that adopting participatory frameworks early on could prevent them from “going through the entire cycle of disputes” that Chile has experienced.
Justice at last?
As part of the governance deal, NovaAndino has pledged to adopt technologies that will reduce water use and mitigate the environmental impacts of lithium extraction.
It has also committed to hold more than 100 annual meetings with community representatives to build a “good faith” relationship, and an Indigenous Advisory Council will meet twice a year with the company’s sustainability committee to discuss its environmental strategy, company sources said. The meetings are due to begin next month.
To oversee the agreement’s implementation, an assembly – composed of representatives from all 25 signatory communities – will track the project’s progress. In addition, NovaAndino will hold one-on-one meetings with each community to address issues such as the hiring of local people and the protection of Indigenous employees.
Espíndola said the deal, while far from perfect, was an important step forward.
“Previously, Indigenous participation was ambiguous. Now we talk about participation at [every] hierarchical level of this process, a very strong empowerment for Indigenous communities,” said Espíndola, adding that it did not give local communities everything they had asked for. For instance, they will not hold veto power over NovaAndino’s decisions or have a formal shareholder role.
But after years of conflict with mining companies, a form of “participatory justice is being done”, he said.
Not everyone is convinced that the accord, pushed by Chile’s former leftist government, marks progress, however.
“Not in our name”
The negotiations have caused deep divisions among the Lickanantay, some of whom say greater engagement with mining companies will not stop irreparable damage to the salt flats on which their traditional way of life depends. Others fear the promise of more money will further erode community bonds.
In January 2024, Indigenous communities from five villages closest to the mining operations, including Toconao, blocked the main access roads to the lithium extraction sites. They said the Council of Atacameño Peoples, which represents 18 Lickanantay communities and was leading discussions with the company, no longer spoke for them.
Official transcripts of consultations on the extension of the lithium contracts and how to share the promised benefits reveal deep divisions. Tensions peaked when communities around the mining operations clashed over how to distribute the multimillion-dollar windfall, with villages closest to the mining sites demanding the largest share.
Eventually, separate deals establishing a new governance framework over mining activities were reached between Codelco and SQM with 25 local communities, including a specific agreement for the five villages closest to the extraction sites.
The division caused by the separate deal for the five villages “will cause historic damage” to the unity of the Atacama desert’s Indigenous peoples, said Hugo Flores, president of the Council of Atacameño Associations, a separate group representing farmers, herders and local workers who oppose the mining expansion.
Sonia Ramos, 83, a renowned Lickanantay healer and well-known anti-mining activist, lamented the fracturing of social bonds over money, and for the sake of meeting government objectives.
“There is fragmentation among the communities themselves. Everything has transformed into disequilibrium,” said the 83-year-old.
“[NovaAndino] supposedly has economic significance for the country, but for us, it is the opposite,” she said.
The company told Climate Home News it has “acted consistently” to promote “transparent, voluntary, and good-faith dialogue with the communities in the territory, recognising their diversity and autonomy, and always respecting their timelines and forms of participation”.
A one-off deal or a model for others?
The NovaAndino joint venture is a pillar of Chile’s strategy to double lithium production by 2031 and consolidate the copper-producing nation’s role in the clean energy transition as demand for battery minerals accelerates.
Chile’s new far-right president, José Antonio Kast, who was sworn in last week, promised to respect the lithium contracts signed by his predecessor’s administration – including the governance model.
Still, some experts say the splits over the new model highlight the need for legislation that mandates direct engagement and minimum community benefits for all large mining projects.
“In the past, this has lent itself to clientelism, communities who negotiate best or arrive first get the better deal,” said Pedro Zapata, a programme officer in Chile for the Natural Resource Governance Institute.
“This can be to the detriment of other communities with less strength. We cannot have first- and second-class citizens subject to the same industry,” he added.
The government is already negotiating two more public-private partnerships to extract lithium with mining giant Rio Tinto, which it said would include a framework to engage with Indigenous communities and share some of the revenues. The details will need to be negotiated between local people, the government and the company.
Sharing the benefits of mining
Under the deal in the Atacama, NovaAndino will run SQM’s current lithium concessions until they expire in 2030 before seeking new permits to expand mining in the region under a vast project known as “Salar Futuro” – a process which will require further mandatory consultations with communities.
Besides the participatory mechanism, the new agreement promises more money than ever before for salt flat communities.
Depending on the global price of lithium and their proximity to the mining operations, Indigenous communities could collectively receive roughly $30 million annually in funding – about double what SQM currently disburses under existing contracts.
When taking into account the company’s payments to local and regional authorities, contributions could reach $150 million annually, according to the government.
To access these resources, each community will need to submit a pipeline of projects they would like funding for under a complex arrangement that includes five separate financial streams:
- A general investment fund will distribute funding based on each village’s size and proximity to the mining sites
- A development fund will support projects specifically in the five communities closest to the extraction sites
- Contributions to farmers and livestock associations
- Contributions to local governments
- A groundbreaking “intergenerational fund” held in trust for the Lickanantay until 2060
For many isolated communities in the Atacama desert, financial contributions from mining firms have funded essential public services, such as healthcare and facilities like football pitches and swimming pools.
In the past, communities have used some of the benefits they received from mining to build their own environmental monitoring units, hiring teams of hydrogeologists and lawyers to scrutinise miners’ activities.
Espíndola said the new model could pave the way for more ambitious development projects such as water treatment plants and community solar energy projects.
Competition for water
The depletion of water resources is one of local people’s biggest environmental concerns.
To extract lithium from the salt flats, miners pump lithium-rich brine accumulated over millions of years in underground reservoirs into gigantic pools, where the water is left to evaporate under the sun and leaves behind lithium carbonate.
One study has shown that the practice is causing the salt flat to sink by up to two centimetres a year. SQM recently said its current operations consume approximately 11,500 to 12,500 litres of industrial freshwater for every metric ton of lithium produced.
NovaAndino has committed to significantly reduce the company’s water use by returning at least 30% of the water it extracts from the brine and eliminating the use of all freshwater in its operations within five years of obtaining an environmental permit.
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Cristina Dorador, a microbiologist at the University of Antofagasta, told Climate Home News that reinjecting the water underground is untested at a large scale and could impact the chemical composition of the salt flats.
Continuing to extract lithium from the flats until 2060 could be the “final blow” for this fragile ecosystem, she said.
Asked to comment on such concerns, NovaAndino said any new technology will be “subject to the highest regulatory standards”, and pledged to ensure transparency through “an updated monitoring system with the participation of Indigenous communities”.
High price for hard-won gains
For the five communities living on the doorstep of the lithium pools, one of the biggest gains is being granted physical access to the mining sites to monitor the lithium extraction and its impact on the salt flats.
That is a first and will strengthen communities’ ability to call out environmental harms, said Sergio Cubillos, the community president of Peine, the village closest to the evaporation ponds. It could also give them the means to seek remediation through the courts if necessary, Espíndola said.
Gaining such rights represents long-overdue progress, Cubillos said, but it has come at a high price for the Lickanantay people.
“Communities receiving money today is what has ultimately led to this division, because we haven’t been able to figure out what we want, how we want it, and how we envision our future as a people,” he said.
Main image: A truck loads concentrated brine at SQM’s lithium mine at the Atacama salt flat in Chile (Photo: REUTERS/Ivan Alvarado)
The post Landmark deal to share Chile’s lithium windfall fractures Indigenous communities appeared first on Climate Home News.
Landmark deal to share Chile’s lithium windfall fractures Indigenous communities
Diplomats will hold a series of informal meetings this year in a bid to revive stalled talks over a global treaty to curb plastic pollution, before aiming to reconvene for the next round of official negotiations at the end of 2026 or early 2027.
Hoping to find a long-awaited breakthrough in the deeply divided UN process, the chair of the talks, Chilean ambassador Julio Cordano, released a roadmap on Monday to inject momentum into the discussions after negotiations collapsed at a chaotic session in Geneva last August.
Cordano wrote in a letter that countries would meet in Nairobi from June 30 to July 3 for informal discussions to review all the components of the negotiations, including thorny issues such as efforts to limit soaring plastic production.
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The gathering should result in the drafting of a new document laying the foundations of a future treaty text with options on elements with divergent views, but “no surprises” such as new ideas or compromise proposals. This plan aims to address the fact that countries left Geneva without a draft text to work on – something Cordano called a “significant limitation” in his letter.
“Predictable pathway”
The meeting in the Kenyan capital will follow a series of virtual consultations every four to six weeks, where heads of country delegations will exchange views on specific topics. A second in-person meeting aimed at finding solutions might take place in early October, depending on the availability of funding.
Cordano said the roadmap should offer “a predictable pathway” in the lead-up to the next formal negotiating session, which is expected to take place over 10 days at the end of 2026 or early 2027. A host country has yet to be selected, but Climate Home News understands that Brazil, Azerbaijan or Kenya – the home of the UN Environment Programme – have been put forward as options.
Countries have twice failed to agree on a global plastics treaty at what were meant to be final rounds of negotiations in December 2024 and August 2025.
Divisions on plastic production
One of the most divisive elements of the discussions remains what the pact should do about plastic production, which, according to the UN, is set to triple by 2060 without intervention.
A majority, which includes most European, Latin American, African and Pacific island nations, wants to limit the manufacturing of plastic to “sustainable levels”. But large fossil fuel and petrochemical producers, led by Saudi Arabia, the United States, Russia and India, say the treaty should only focus on managing plastic waste.
As nearly all plastic is made from planet-heating oil, gas and coal, the sector’s trajectory will have a significant impact on global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Countries still far apart
After an eight-month hiatus, informal discussions restarted in early March at an informal meeting of about 20 countries hosted by Japan.
A participant told Climate Home News that, while the gathering had been helpful to test ideas, progress remained “challenging”, with national stances largely unchanged.
The source added that countries would need to achieve a significant shift in positions in the coming months to make reconvening formal negotiations worthwhile.
Deep divisions persist as plastics treaty talks restart at informal meeting
Jacob Kean-Hammerson, global plastics policy lead at Greenpeace USA, said the new roadmap offers an opportunity for countries to “defend and protect the most critical provisions on the table”.
He said that the document expected after the Nairobi meeting “must include and revisit proposals backed by a large number of countries, especially on plastic production, that have previously been disregarded”.
“These measures are essential to addressing the crisis at its source and must be reinstated as a key part of the negotiations,” he added.
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Roadmap launched to restart deadlocked UN plastics treaty talks
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