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Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.

This week

COP29 kicks off

AGENDA FIGHT: The UN’s COP29 climate talks in Baku, Azerbaijan got off to a shaky start on Monday. The host nation attempted to repeat the UAE’s COP28 day-one “win” by pushing through a deal on Article 6.4, which governs international carbon trading, in a move described by one party as a “horrible precedent”. But, instead of adulation, the COP29 presidency landed in a lengthy “agenda fight”, resolved in classic COP fashion with a footnote. This fight reflected the key battlelines at the summit: the new climate finance goal; and how, where – or even whether – to carry forward COP28’s deal on “transitioning away from fossil fuels”. Carbon Brief journalists will host a free webinar to answer questions about COP29 later today. Sign up.

COUNTRY CLIMATE PLANS: Three nations – UAE, Brazil and the UK – have come forward with new UN climate plans, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), ahead of the February 2025 deadline. Climate Home News reported that the UAE’s plan was criticised for failing to include measures to restrain oil and gas production, which is projected to rise by a third by 2035. Meanwhile, the Brazilian climate NGO Climate Observatory said the emissions cut planned by the nation falls far short of its fair share towards limiting global warming to 1.5C. The UK’s emissions aim has broadly been welcomed by climate experts.

‘PAY UP’: With a new climate-finance goal seen as the main COP29 objective, UN secretary general António Guterres told leaders to “pay up, or humanity will pay the price”, Reuters reported. Early disputes over the goal produced a draft text with “pretty much every option…on the table”, showing “polarised views” between countries, explained the Hindustan Times. (For more on the negotiations, see Spotlight below.) Meanwhile, multilateral development banks announced that their climate-finance contributions will reach $120bn annually by 2030, according to Azernews

World leaders summit

‘GIFT OF GOD’: The president of Azerbaijan, the country hosting COP29, caused a media firestorm by describing oil and gas a “gift of god” during his address at the opening of the conference’s World Leaders Climate Action summit. BBC News reported that Ilham Aliyev criticised “western fake news” about the country’s emissions and said nations “should not be blamed” for exploiting their fossil fuels. On Friday, senior figures including former UN secretary general Ban Ki-moon and former UN climate chief Christiana Figueres wrote in a letter that the COP process is “no longer fit for purpose”. 

UNITED MESSAGES: Aliyev’s address at the summit was followed by interventions from 80 heads of state on Tuesday and Wednesday. Carbon Brief was in the room for the summit’s first day and summarised what each leader chose to focus on. Developing countries put on a united front calling for “climate justice” to be at the heart of climate-finance discussions, while European leaders implored all countries to release new plans to keep the 1.5C temperature goal in sight.

LEADERSHIP SCRAMBLE: After Donald Trump’s US election win, debate is swirling over which party might take over as a “leader” at the talks. The UK government told the Observer it intended to step up to “save COP29”. At its first press conference, the European Union said it will lead from the front at the negotiations – despite France’s environment minister deciding to skip the summit following a diplomatic spat with Azerbaijan. At the sidelines, a senior Chinese official told delegates that “China is willing to take a more active role in global climate governance”, according to Carbon Brief’s China Briefing.

Around the world

  • SHELL COURT WIN: Oil giant Shell has won a “landmark case” in the Dutch courts, reported BBC News, overturning a ruling requiring the company to cut its carbon emissions by 45% by 2030 compared to 2019 levels. 
  • EMISSIONS RISE: A new Global Carbon Budget report has found there is “no sign” of the transition away from burning fossil fuels pledged at COP28, with emissions from coal, oil and gas rising by 0.8% in 2024, the Guardian reported. Carbon Brief has an in-depth write-up of the report. 
  • ‘THREE-YEAR STANDSTILL’: Current policies would put the world on track for 2.7C of warming by 2100 – following a “three-year standstill” in significant climate progress, according to a Climate Action Tracker report covered by the New York Times.
  • TRUMP MOVES: Donald Trump is expected to nominate former Republican congressman Lee Zeldin as head of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), a federal body responsible for enforcing climate rules, according to the New York Times. The Hill reported that, in a recent interview, Zeldin said that the Trump administration would “roll back regulations that are forcing businesses to struggle”.
  • VALENCIA PROTESTS: Tens of thousands of people took to the streets of Valencia, Spain last weekend, calling on the local leaders to resign after more than 200 people were killed in recent flooding, according to the Guardian.

12%

The proportion of heads of state speaking at COP29 that were female, based on the official running order.


Latest climate research

  • Human-induced climate change has driven a 1.49C temperature increase compared to a pre-1700 baseline, according to a new Nature Geoscience study using Antarctic ice-core data.
  • Air temperatures inside caves in the European Alps have increased by around 0.2C per decade over the past 20 years, a new Scientific Reports study found.
  • A new research paper in Nature Ecology and Evolution found that the capacity of land to store carbon has weakened during warm extremes over the past 40 years – mainly in tropical regions.

(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)

Captured

More than 65,000 delegates have registered to attend COP29 in Baku, potentially making it the second-largest COP on record. This total is more than 15,000 lower than the record-breaking COP in Dubai last year – and marks the first time in seven years that a COP is not larger than its predecessor. According to Carbon Brief analysis, host country Azerbaijan has the largest delegation at the summit, with 2,229 people registered. This is followed by Brazil (1,914), Turkey (1,862), the UAE (1,011) and China (969).

Spotlight

Finance and fossil-fuel fights at COP29

This week, Carbon Brief outlines what to expect from the two biggest topics being negotiated at COP29.

Climate finance

Nations gathered at COP29 must agree on a global target to channel finance into climate action, known as the “new collective quantified goal” (NCQG). 

There are major rifts between parties over virtually every aspect of the NCQG. As a result, negotiations got off to a shaky start. 

Broadly, developing countries want developed countries to provide or “mobilise” at least $1tn a year to them, largely as grants. Developed country parties, such as the US and the EU, want a goal that does not rely entirely on them, including lots of private investment and input from the wealthier developing countries. Parties have diverging views on when the goal should be delivered, but dates broadly range between 2025 and 2035.

At the first opportunity, developing countries unanimously rejected the nine-page text meant as the starting point for negotiations and requested a rewrite.

Ali Mohamed, chair of the African Group of Negotiators, told journalists that the “biggest obstacle” was language that shifted responsibility away from developed countries’ obligation to provide funds to developing countries. 

Having incorporated the views of all countries, the co-chairs facilitating the talks released a new version that had ballooned to 34 pages and was widely viewed as unworkable. There were more delays as parties only allowed the chairs to slightly streamline this text, producing one that was just a page shorter. 

By this point, talks were entering the second half of the week and delegates expressed concerns that so little progress had been made. EU lead negotiator Jacob Werksman told a press briefing that they were “very worried”, lamenting that “more than a year of preparation” had gone into the initial text that had been rejected.

Negotiators are engaging in informal talks to hash out some of the less divisive elements, such as how easy it is for countries to access funds. Next week will see government ministers take over, with the goal of steering them through more controversial territories into a final conclusion.

Fossil fuels

Apart from climate finance, the other key battleground at COP29 is around how – or even whether – to carry forward the outcome of last year’s “global stocktake”, in which all parties agreed to help with “transitioning away from fossil fuels”.

This question was a major part of the “agenda fight” at the start of the summit. Disagreement centred on which part of the agenda would include the “UAE dialogue”, which was created to discuss “implementing the global stocktake outcomes”.

The Like-Minded Group of Developing Countries (LMDCs), including China and India, want this dialogue to focus exclusively on finance, as do the Arab Group and the African Group. Many others want a broader focus, taking in all stocktake outcomes, including fossil-fuel transition.

Supporters, including the EU, US, UK, small island states (AOSIS) and Latin American countries (AILAC), are pushing for text on ambitious climate action in several venues.

Ultimately, fossil-fuel transition could end up in a so-called “cover text” at COP29. This has become a space to include more political language that does not have a “home” elsewhere.

On Thursday evening, the Azerbaijan presidency began talks with parties on where to put text on climate ambition – including fossil-fuel transition – but it has yet to give more details on its plans.

Watch, read, listen

TRUMP FAILSAFE: Politico’s Power Play podcast spoke to Ali Zaidi, the White House’s national climate advisor, on whether Biden’s climate policies were built to outlast the incoming Trump administration.

EXXON SAYS STAY: In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods said Donald Trump “shouldn’t pull” the US from the Paris Agreement.
PARTISAN OVERFLOW: New DeSmog analysis found that industrial agriculture and biotechnology representatives “enjoyed privileged access” to the COP16 biodiversity summit negotiations, brought in on country badges.

Coming up

Pick of the jobs

DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.

The post COP29 DeBriefed 15 November 2024: Azerbaijan’s shaky start; Finance and fossil fuels dominate negotiations; Free webinar today appeared first on Carbon Brief.

COP29 DeBriefed 15 November 2024: Azerbaijan’s shaky start; Finance and fossil fuels dominate negotiations; Free webinar today

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Climate Change

Colombia proposes expert group to advance talks on minerals agreement

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Colombia wants countries to discuss options for a global agreement to ensure that the extraction, processing and recycling of minerals – including those needed for the clean energy transition – don’t harm the environment and human wellbeing.

The mineral-rich nation is proposing to create an expert group to “identify options for international instruments, including global and legally-binding instruments, for coordinated global action on the environmentally sound management of minerals and metals through [their] full lifecyle”.

Colombia hopes this will eventually lead to an agreement on the need for an international treaty to define mandatory rules and standards that would make mineral value chains more transparent and accountable.

The proposal was set out in a draft resolution submitted to the UN Environment Assembly (UNEA) earlier this week and seen by Climate Home News. UNEA, which is constituted of all UN member states, is the world’s top decision-making body for matters relating to the environment. The assembly’s seventh session will meet in Kenya in December to vote on countries’ proposals.

    Soaring demand for the minerals used to manufacture clean energy technologies and electric vehicles, as well as in the digital, construction and defence industries have led to growing environmental destruction, human rights violations and social conflict.

    Colombia argues there is an “urgent need” to strengthen global cooperation and governance to reduce the risks to people and the planet.

    Options for a global minerals agreement

    The proposal is among a flurry of initiatives to strength global mineral governance at a time when booming demand is putting pressure on new mining projects.

    Colombia, which produces emeralds, gold, platinum and silver for exports, first proposed the idea for a binding international agreement on minerals traceability and accountability on the sidelines of the UN biodiversity talks it hosted in October 2024.

    Since then, the South American nation has been quietly trying to drum up support for the idea, especially among African and European nations.

    Its draft resolution to UNEA7 contains very few details, leaving it open for countries to discuss what kind of global instrument would be best suited to make mineral supply chains more transparent and sustainable.

    Does the world need a global treaty on energy transition minerals?

    Colombia says it wants the expert group to build on other UN initiatives, including a UN Panel on Critical Energy Transition Minerals, which set out seven principles to ensure the mining, processing and recycling of energy transition minerals are done responsibly and benefit everyone.

    The group would include technical experts and representatives from international and regional conventions, major country groupings as well as relevant stakeholders.

    It would examine the feasibility and effectiveness of different options for a global agreement, consider their costs and identify measures to support countries to implement what is agreed.

    The resolution also calls for one or two meetings for member states to discuss the idea before the UNEA8 session planned in late 2027, when countries would decide on a way forward.

    No time to lose for treaty negotiations

    Colombia’s efforts to advance global talks on mineral supply chains have been welcomed by resource experts and campaigners. But not everyone agrees on the best strategy to move the discussion forward at a time when multilateralism is coming under attack.

    Johanna Sydow, a resource policy expert who heads the international environmental policy division of the Heinrich-Böll Foundation, said she had hoped that the resolution would explicitly call for negotiations to begin on an international minerals treaty.

    “Treaty negotiations take a long time. If you don’t even start with it now, it will take even longer. I don’t see how in two or three years it will be easier to come to an agreement,” she told Climate Home.

      Despite the geopolitical challenges, “we need joint rules to prevent a huge race to the bottom for [mineral] standards”. That could start with a group of countries coming together and starting to enforce joint standards for mining, processing and recycling minerals, she said.

      But any meaningful global agreement on mineral supply chains would require backing from China, the world’s largest processor of minerals, which dominates most of the supply chains. And with Colombia heading for an election in May, it will need all the support it can get to move its proposal forward.

      ‘Voluntary initiative won’t cut it’

      Juliana Peña Niño, Colombia country manager at the Natural Resource Governance Institute, is more optimistic. “Colombia’s leadership towards fairer mineral value chains is a welcome step,” she told Climate Home News.

      “At UNEA7, we need an ambitious debate that gives the proposed expert group a clear mandate to advance concrete next steps — not delay decisions — and that puts the voices of those most affected at the centre. One thing is clear: the path forward must ultimately deliver a binding instrument, as yet another voluntary initiative simply won’t cut it,” she said.

      More than 50 civil society groups spanning Latin America, Africa and Europe previously described Colombia’s work on the issue as “a chance to build a new global paradigm rooted in environmental integrity, human rights, Indigenous Peoples’ rights, justice and equity”.

      “As the energy transition and digitalisation drive demand for minerals, we cannot afford to repeat old extractive models built on asymmetry – we must redefine them,” they wrote in a statement.


      Main image: The UN Environment Assembly is hosted in Nairobi, Kenya. (Natalia Mroz/ UN Environment)

      The post Colombia proposes expert group to advance talks on minerals agreement appeared first on Climate Home News.

      Colombia proposes expert group to advance talks on minerals agreement

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      Climate Change

      California Sanctions Stark Disparities in Pesticide Exposure During Pregnancy

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      If you’re young, pregnant and Latina, chances are you live near agricultural fields sprayed with higher levels of brain-damaging organophosphate pesticides.

      A baby in the womb has few defenses against industrial petrochemicals designed to kill.

      California Sanctions Stark Disparities in Pesticide Exposure During Pregnancy

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      Climate Change

      DeBriefed 3 October 2025: UK political gap on climate widens; Fossil-fuelled Typhoon Ragasa; ‘Overshoot’ unknowns

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      Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
      An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.

      This week

      Shattered climate consensus

      FRACKING BAN: UK energy secretary Ed Miliband has announced that the government will bring forward its plans to permanently ban fracking, in a move designed to counter a promise from the hard-right Reform party to restart efforts to introduce the practice, the Guardian said. In the same speech, Miliband said Reform’s plans to scrap clean-energy projects would “betray” young people and future generations, the Press Association reported.

      ACT AXE?: Meanwhile, Kemi Badenoch, leader of the Conservatives, pledged to scrap the 2008 Climate Change Act if elected, Bloomberg reported. It noted that the legislation was passed with cross-party support and strengthened by the Conservatives.
      ‘INSANE’: Badenoch faced a backlash from senior Tory figures, including ex-prime minister Theresa May, who called her pledge a “catastrophic mistake”, said the Financial Times. The newspaper added that the Conservatives were “trailing third in opinion polls”. A wide range of climate scientists also condemned the idea, describing it as “insane”, an “insult” and a “serious regression”.

      Around the world

      • CLIMATE CRACKDOWN: The US Department of Energy has told employees in the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy to avoid using the term “climate change”, according to the Guardian.
      • FOREST DELAY: Plans for Brazil’s COP30 flagship initiative, the tropical forests forever fund, are “suffer[ing] delays” as officials remain split on key details, Bloomberg said.
      • COP MAY BE ‘SPLIT’: Australia could “split” the hosting of the COP31 climate summit in 2026 under a potential compromise with Turkey, reported the Guardian.
      • DIVINE INTERVENTION: Pope Leo XIV has criticised those who minimise the “increasingly evident” impact of global warming in his first major climate speech, BBC News reported.

      €44.5 billion

      The  cost of extreme weather and climate change in the EU in the last four years – two-and-a-half times higher than in the decade to 2019, according to a European Environment Agency report covered by the Financial Times.


      Latest climate research

      (For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)

      Captured

      Bar chart showing that Great Britain has been fully powered by clean energy for a record 87 hours in 2025 to date

      Clean energy has met 100% of Great Britain’s electricity demand for a record 87 hours this year so far, according to new Carbon Brief analysis. This is up from just 2.5 hours in 2021 and 64.5 hours in all of 2024. The longest stretch of time where 100% of electricity demand was met by clean energy stands at 15 hours, from midnight on 25 May 2025 through to 3pm on 26 May, according to the analysis.

      Spotlight

      ‘Overshoot’ unknowns

      As the chances of limiting global warming to 1.5C dwindle, there is increasing focus on the prospects for “overshooting” the Paris Agreement target and then bringing temperatures back down by removing CO2 from the atmosphere.

      At the first-ever Overshoot Conference in Laxenburg, Austria, Carbon Brief asks experts about the key unknowns around warming “overshoot”.

      Sir Prof Jim Skea

      Chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and emeritus professor at Imperial College London’s Centre for Environmental Policy

      So there are huge knowledge gaps around overshoot and carbon dioxide removal (CDR). As it’s very clear from the themes of this conference, we don’t altogether understand how the Earth would react in taking CO2 out of the atmosphere.

      We don’t understand the nature of the irreversibilities and we don’t understand the effectiveness of CDR techniques, which might themselves be influenced by the level of global warming, plus all the equity and sustainability issues surrounding using CDR techniques.

      Prof Kristie Ebi

      Professor at the University of Washington’s Center for Health and the Global Environment

      There are all kinds of questions about adaptation and how to approach effective adaptation. At the moment, adaptation is primarily assuming a continual increase in global mean surface temperature. If there is going to be a peak – and of course, we don’t know what that peak is – then how do you start planning? Do you change your planning?

      There are places, for instance when thinking about hard infrastructure, [where overshoot] may result in a change in your plan – because as you come down the backside, maybe the need would be less. For example, when building a bridge taller. And when implementing early warning systems, how do you take into account that there will be a peak and ultimately a decline? There is almost no work in that. I would say that’s one of the critical unknowns.

      Dr James Fletcher

      Former minister for public service, sustainable development, energy, science and technology for Saint Lucia and negotiator at COP21 in Paris.

      The key unknown is where we’re going to land. At what point will we peak [temperatures] before we start going down and how long will we stay in that overshoot period? That is a scary thing. Yes, there will be overshoot, but at what point will that overshoot peak? Are we peaking at 1.6C, 1.7C, 2.1C?

      All of these are scary scenarios for small island developing states – anything above 1.5C is scary. Every fraction of a degree matters to us. Where we peak is very important and how long we stay in this overshoot period is equally important. That’s when you start getting into very serious, irreversible impacts and tipping points.

      Prof Oliver Geden

      Senior fellow and head of the climate policy and politics research cluster at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs and vice-chair of IPCC Working Group III

      [A key unknown] is whether countries are really willing to commit to net-negative trajectories. We are assuming, in science, global pathways going net-negative, with hardly any country saying they want to go there. So maybe it is just an academic thought experiment. So we don’t know yet if [overshoot] is even relevant. It is relevant in the sense that if we do, [the] 1.5C [target] stays on the table. But I think the next phase needs to be that countries – or the UNFCCC as a whole – needs to decide what they want to do.

      Prof Lavanya Rajamani

      Professor of international environmental law at the University of Oxford

      I think there are several scientific unknowns, but I would like to focus on the governance unknowns with respect to overshoot. To me, a key governance unknown is the extent to which our current legal and regulatory architecture – across levels of governance, so domestic, regional and international – will actually be responsive to the needs of an overshoot world and the consequences of actually not having regulatory and governance architectures in place to address overshoot.

      Watch, read, listen

      FUTURE GAZING: The Financial Times examined a “future where China wins the green race”.

      ‘JUNK CREDITS’: Climate Home News reported on a “forest carbon megaproject” in Zimbabwe that has allegedly “generated millions of junk credits”.
      ‘SINK OR SWIM’: An extract from a new book on how the world needs to adapt to climate change, by Dr Susannah Fisher, featured in Backchannel.

      Coming up

      Pick of the jobs

      DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.

      This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.

      The post DeBriefed 3 October 2025: UK political gap on climate widens; Fossil-fuelled Typhoon Ragasa; ‘Overshoot’ unknowns appeared first on Carbon Brief.

      DeBriefed 3 October 2025: UK political gap on climate widens; Fossil-fuelled Typhoon Ragasa; ‘Overshoot’ unknowns

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