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Paola Yanguas Parra, Eduardo Posada Perlaza and Megan Darby work with the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) energy team. 

At COP 29 climate negotiations in Baku, Azerbaijan, the top priority is to land a new climate finance package. The summit will be closely followed by a fresh round of national climate plans, setting emissions reduction targets to 2035. Together, these need to deliver on last year’s historic agreement to transition away from fossil fuels   

While climate finance talks are fraught, progressive governments don’t need to wait for consensus to set an example of what good transition finance looks like.  

Colombia’s environment minister, Susana Muhamed, has arrived in Baku with a pitch that stands out. She is seeking $10 billion from international partners towards a $40 billion climate investment plan.    

This plan is geared to not just scale up clean energy, but to diversify the economy away from fossil fuel production. It targets renewables, yes – but also sustainable agriculture, nature restoration and ecotourism, to create a greener and more inclusive economy.  

For the world to meet the Paris Agreement goal of holding global warming to 1.5°C, this kind of economic diversification is essential.  

Push-back against bold vision  

Gustavo Petro was elected president of Colombia in 2022, promising to halt fossil fuel expansion and reduce economic dependence on coal, oil and gas. It has not been easy. 

While environmental and human rights groups celebrated this vision, it met push-back from industry and some national think-tanks. Worse, credit rating downgrades for sovereign bonds are making it harder to finance the transition to alternatives.  

But his administration has not lost sight of the urgency of climate action. Ironically, Petro cancelled plans to attend COP29 to oversee relief from a weather emergency at home – floods affecting 25,000 families.    

Colombia’s change of course on fossil fuels is pragmatic, as much as it is ambitious. Coal, oil and gas extraction has traditionally played a major role in Colombia’s economy. In the last 10 years, fossil fuels accounted for around half the country’s exports, two thirds of final energy consumption and 3-6% of GDP.  

Colombia adds nature to the mix with its $40-billion energy transition plan

However, as the world moves toward cheap, clean renewable power, global demand for all fossil fuels is set to peak by 2030. Beyond that, producers will compete for shares of a shrinking market.     

Colombia faces particularly high transition risk, and is already seeing demand for its coal decline with an accompanying decline in production capacity, despite high international coal prices.  

Moreover, its oil and gas reserves are being depleted, and new discoveries, even if fully exploited, would not reverse the trend. Remaining offshore gas reserves are uneconomical to exploit under most price scenarios.  

These trends show that Colombia can no longer depend on the fossil fuel industry as a locomotive of economic growth.  

Reforming fossil fuel subsidies   

The answer is to transition away from fossil fuels, redirecting investment into sustainable growth sectors. Colombia has untapped potential in renewable energy, bioeconomy, and tourism, among many other sectors identified in its Just Transition roadmap 

Attention is also needed to the workers and communities most affected by the decline in fossil fuel extraction. They will require access to retraining, jobs and social security. Colombia has taken steps in this direction, signing a pledge for green jobs and just transition with the International Labour Organization in 2019, and launching pilot projects in the coal mining region of Cesar.  

Critics accuse the Petro administration of scaring off investors and weakening Colombia’s economy with its stance on phasing out fossil fuels. They point to Colombia’s credit rating, which has gradually deteriorated in recent years.  

In fact, that trend started before Petro took office, when the country lost its decade-old BBB-rating in 2020. Since the COVID-19 pandemic, Colombia has faced sluggish growth rates, high inflation, and a rising fiscal deficit, all of which have contributed to the credit rating downgrades.  

COP29 Bulletin Day 6: Climate march tamed and gender talks gridlocked

One drag on the government budget is fossil fuel subsidies. These spiked in 2022 to $8 billion, or 2.5% of GDP, as soaring international oil prices diverged from fixed motor fuel prices. While there is progress in the gradual reduction of gasoline subsidies, further subsidy cuts have been met with resistance. For instance, in August 2024 the Petro government attempted to substantially decrease the subsidies but scaled back its plans for diesel after truckers went on strike.   

These challenges underscore the importance of a comprehensive strategy for fossil fuel subsidy reform. Some 33% of Colombia’s population lives below the poverty line and any changes to subsidies need to address impacts on their livelihoods and purchasing power.  

Test case for transition finance  

Colombia’s $40 billion climate investment plan is a test case for transition finance. The Petro administration has a bold vision for a post-fossil fuel economy. And while a diversified economy is ultimately more stable and prosperous, it takes time to establish new sectors.  

This is where the call for international support comes in. Colombia needs grants and concessional loans, technical assistance and access to clean technology to make its vision a reality. Targeted public finance can leverage private investment and revitalize the economy, under Petro’s administration and beyond.  

COP29 must deliver on the world’s energy transition promises

There were hopes that the recent UN biodiversity talks in Cali, Colombia, would produce a new plan for nature financing. However, countries could not agree on the finance mechanism, further raising the stakes for climate finance talks at COP29.  

It is in the interests of the international community that a Global South fossil fuel producer succeeds in forging a greener path. The expected US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement only makes it more important for other powers to renew their commitment to advancing climate action. Rewarding Colombia’s leadership with international support can increase the chances of success and inspire others to follow.  

The post Why the international community should back Colombia’s post-fossil fuel plan   appeared first on Climate Home News.

Why the international community should back Colombia’s post-fossil fuel plan  

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Q&A: What is in China’s new five-year plan for climate change?

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China has released a five-year plan dedicated to addressing climate change.

The 15th five-year plan for a national response to climate change is the latest in a series to outline in-depth climate and energy targets for the 2026-2030 period.

These include five-year plans for “building a Beautiful China”, developing a “new-type energy system” and developing renewable energy.

There are also separate “action plans” for the 2026-2030 period, such as for peaking carbon emissions

China has pledged to peak its emissions before 2030 and reach carbon neutrality before 2060.

The new plan does not include any major new targets, instead consolidating and reaffirming existing policies.

Nevertheless, it includes significant signals on key policy areas, such as non-carbon dioxide (CO2) greenhouse gases, global climate governance and carbon markets.

Below, Carbon Brief examines some of the notable elements in the latest five-year plan and what it reveals about China’s policy direction through to 2030.

What does the climate plan cover?

The Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) released the plan in late July, in unison with 18 other government departments. These include the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s top economic planning agency, and the National Energy Administration.

The document covers a range of topics, including CO2 emissions, other greenhouse gases (non-CO2 GHGs), carbon markets, carbon footprints, climate adaptation and international cooperation on climate change.

For the first time at the five-year plan level, the plan creates a comprehensive target system covering all areas of climate policy, say officials in a MEE Q&A.

They describe it as “the main policy instrument” for advancing China’s climate action during 2026-2030.

China rarely issues high-level multi-year policies dedicated to “responding to climate change”. In 2014, the NDRC published a plan on the topic running through to 2020, but this was not linked to a five-year plan period.

Qin Yan, principal analyst at ClearBlue Markets, tells Carbon Brief that the plan shows that China’s climate governance has reached “an unprecedented strategic level”.

She adds that the plan creates an “all-encompassing target system” to support China’s Paris Agreement climate pledges for 2030 and 2035.

In its 2030 pledge, China aimed to peak emissions “before 2030” and reduce carbon intensity – its emissions per unit of GDP – by more than 65% from 2005 levels.

Last year, president Xi Jinping personally announced China’s 2035 pledge to cut China’s greenhouse gas emissions to 7-10% below peak levels by 2035, while “striving to do better”.

The five-year plan marks a new phase in China’s climate policy, according to researchers at CIB Research, an economic research body affiliated with the Industrial Bank, whose largest shareholder is the Fujian provincial government.

Their analysis adds that the plan represents a broad effort to strengthen China’s climate-governance system, implementation mechanisms and underlying capacity.

Nevertheless, several headline targets and policies in the document simply reiterate already established plans.

These include:

  • Cutting carbon intensity by 17% across the five years
  • Reducing carbon intensity per product in industries under China’s carbon market by 3%
  • Substituting fossil fuels with renewables
  • Strengthening climate adaptation
  • Supporting the “free flow” of cleantech

What does the plan say about non-CO2 GHGs?

The plan also goes into detail on China’s approach to non-CO2 GHGs. This includes reaffirming a target of an emissions “reduction capacity” from these gases totalling 30m tonnes of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e) by 2030, although the baseline is unclear.

The target previously appeared in the overarching five-year plan, as well as the plan for building a “Beautiful China”.

The goal refers to emissions reductions, which can be realised through implementing current non-CO2 emissions reduction policies and projects, says Chen Meian, programme director and senior analyst at the Institute for Global Decarbonization Progress (iGDP). 

She adds that it is “relatively achievable”, with sources including increasing the number of coal-mine methane utilisation projects.

She points to an MEE explanatory note for a draft methodology under the China Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) scheme, China’s voluntary carbon-credit market. Chen says the note suggests that projects using ventilation air methane and coal-mine methane with concentrations below 8% alone could deliver around 20MtCO2e of reduction by 2030.

The note states that, currently, such projects are estimated to be able to “generate annual emission reductions of approximately 4.5MtCO2e”.

In addition, Chen says, measures targeting industrial nitrous oxide (N2O) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) could help make up the remainder needed to meet the target.

According to iGDP analysis of biennial reports submitted by China to the UNFCCC, China emitted around 14,000MtCO2e of GHGs in 2021, excluding land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF).

Non-CO2 GHGs accounted for around 2,700MtCO2e, or 19%, of the total, the majority of which was methane, as shown in the figure below.

Methane is China’s main source of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions. Emissions by gas, MtCO2e. Stacked bar chart from 2005 to 2021 showing total emissions rising to over 2,700 MtCO2e. Methane consistently accounts for the largest share, followed by Nitrous Oxide and F-gases. Source: iGDP analysis of China’s first Biennial Transparency Report and fourth Biennial Update Report - (alt text generated by Google Gemini)
iGDP analysis of China’s first Biennial Transparency Report and fourth Biennial Update Report.

China’s plans to curb these super-pollutants in the five-year period include coal-mine methane utilisation projects, end-of-pipe destruction technologies for HFCs and guidance on the use of catalysts to reduce N2O emissions.

The plan also calls for the recovery and replacement of sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) in power equipment.

For Chen, the plan’s focus on SF6 control is particularly noteworthy. She says the gas is “finally receiving policy attention” and that proactive action is “timely and will help avoid future emissions growth” as China’s power system expands.

What does the plan say about global climate governance?

One of the plan’s clearest objectives for international cooperation is for China to play a more active role in global climate governance.

By 2030, it says China should markedly increase its “influence, guiding power, shaping power and moral appeal” in this area.

It says China’s climate action could also feed into the Global Governance Initiative, a policy initiative aimed at reforming the global governance system.

China will also aim to “build a new narrative on climate governance”, it adds.

Prof Thomas Hale, a professor in public policy at the University of Oxford’s Blavatnik School of Government, writes on LinkedIn that the plan “marks a major rhetorical shift” towards China being increasingly willing to “lead and shape” global climate action.

Another clear focal point for international cooperation is in carbon markets.

The plan calls for China to expand the global influence of its carbon market, such as through international rule-setting, cooperation on standards and by hosting the China Carbon Market Conference.

Qin says China’s more active role in global carbon pricing is already evident in the launch of the open coalition on compliance carbon markets with the EU and Brazil. This coalition is expected to adopt a work plan at the China Carbon Market Conference in September.

Qin also notes that China “could become the world’s largest [carbon] offset buyer” as its energy transition progresses.

The country would, therefore, “benefit from helping shape global rules under the Article 6 framework [for carbon trading under the Paris Agreement]”, she adds.

The post Q&A: What is in China’s new five-year plan for climate change? appeared first on Carbon Brief.

Q&A: What is in China’s new five-year plan for climate change?
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Quarter of countries still missing UN climate plans 18 months after deadline

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About a quarter of the countries signed up to the Paris Agreement are still breaching its rules by failing to submit a new national climate plan, 18 months after the February 2025 deadline.

Forty-five nations had not submitted a plan known as a nationally determined contribution (NDC), according to the Paris Agreement Implementation and Compliance Committee’s (PAICC) newly-published report of its 7-10 July 2026 meeting. One, Oman, has published it since the meeting.

Twelve countries ignored the committee’s repeated attempts to find out why they had not yet produced a climate plan, the report said. They will be invited to the committee’s next meeting, from September 1-4, so it can identify the challenges and constraints they face.

Members of the committee are divided, as they were at their last meeting, on whether to name those countries publicly and will debate the question again in September.

The PAICC does not have any power to punish governments, as building these powers into the Paris Agreement was thought to be so controversial that it could have stopped some governments from joining, experts have previously told Climate Home News.

A key requirement of the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement is that governments publish a more ambitious NDC every five years, setting targets to reduce their planet-heating emissions and outlining their policies to adapt to climate change, in order to meet the accord’s goals on limiting global warming and protecting people from its effects.

The latest set – the third round of plans, with new targets for 2035 – was due in 2025.

Some medium-sized emitters

Countries without an updated NDC include Egypt, Vietnam, Argentina and the Phillippines, all of which rank among the world’s 40 largest greenhouse gas emitters. The rest of the countries are smaller, poorer nations, with many in Africa or the Caribbean.

Some nations have argued that they cannot put together an NDC – which requires a significant amount of work in tracking emissions and consulting on how to curb them across the economy – because of exceptional circumstances. For example, a letter from a Sudanese official to the PAICC committee, seen by Climate Home News, says that the country’s civil war has led to the suspension of its NDC preparation.

    The US and Iran are not signed up to the Paris Agreement, although the US submitted a 2035 NDC under the Biden administration before Donald Trump pulled the US out of the UN climate accords.

    The committee also expressed concern that the UN’s NDC registry continued to label the climate plans of countries that are no longer party to the Paris Agreement as “active”, according to its report. The US submission has since been archived.

    Since the last PAICC meeting in March, ten countries have published NDCs. The committee did not name them but they include India, Algeria, Cameroon and Guyana.

    The post Quarter of countries still missing UN climate plans 18 months after deadline appeared first on Climate Home News.

    Quarter of countries still missing UN climate plans 18 months after deadline

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    China’s coal power rebounds as record clean energy goes to waste

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    China’s use of coal for electricity grew in the first half of 2026 as a record amount of wind and solar power was wasted through curtailment, new research has found.

    The world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter brought 30 gigawatts (GW) of new coal power capacity into operation in the six months to June and coal-fired generation rose 3% after falling last year, according to a report by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) and Global Energy Monitor (GEM). Only 2.7GW of coal power was retired in the same period.

    The coal expansion stems from a surge in power plant approvals that followed power shortages caused primarily by high coal prices in 2021, when blackouts and factory shutdowns hit roughly 20 Chinese provinces. Local governments responded by fast-tracking new coal projects as insurance against future outages.

    A further 274 GW of coal capacity – equivalent to roughly a fifth of China’s existing coal fleet – is already either under construction or has permits to be built, meaning much of the sector’s expansion is locked in for years, the report says.

      “Climate concern”

      Qi Qin, the report’s author, said the coal lock-in is a “climate concern”. “After coal power plants are built, they will seek revenue and operating hours for decades and that can crowd out clean power and slow the retirement of the older coal power units,” she added.

      The coal buildout is happening at the same time as Beijing signals a gradual shift in its energy rhetoric. In a document published last April, the Chinese government called for the country to “reasonably control” both China’s capacity to generate electricity from coal and, for the first time, how much electricity it actually generates from coal.

      China has also pledged in its latest five-year plan to cut carbon emissions per unit of gross domestic product – known as carbon intensity – by 17% between 2026 and 2030. It plans to reach net zero by 2060.

      But, according to Qi, there is still a real gap between the direction of national policy and what is happening on the ground.

      Growing renewables curtailments

      While China generated less than half of its electricity from coal for the first time in the six months to last June, growing demand for electricity meant coal power generation still rose 3.4%, reversing a roughly 1% decline recorded in 2025, the report said.

      Available clean electricity from solar and wind, which have seen a record expansion in China, would have been more than enough to meet the extra demand and drive coal power down if it had been fully used, the report said. Instead, the amount of clean electricity wasted kept growing.

      Estimated rates of curtailment, the intentional reduction of electricity from a source, for wind and solar were up by about a half in the six-month period compared to last year, wasting the equivalent of Indonesia’s annual electricity output.



      Coal’s protected status

      Researchers said that was caused by the Chinese grid’s inability to absorb the additional clean electricity, in addition to energy contracts and pricing mechanisms skewed in favour of coal power.

      Chinese coal generators are required to sign long-term contracts covering a fixed share of the previous year’s output, now standing at 70%. Qi said that, out of fear of electricity shortages, regulators introduced these arrangements to protect coal power plants by guaranteeing them predictable prices and utilisation rates.

      Additionally, China has also begun paying coal plants to stand ready to generate electricity, rather than for actually running, through new capacity payments introduced this year.

      China unveils underwhelming emissions-cutting target for 2035

      Qi said that, while each of these mechanisms has a legitimate purpose on its own, they now combine to give coal power excessive protections. “When renewables are abundant, they [coal operators] don’t have the incentive and are not required to ramp down,” she added.

      The report suggested lowering, or even suspending, coal-specific contract minimums in provinces that are experiencing clean energy being wasted or prolonged periods of zero or negative electricity prices. That would help coal transition to a more flexible backup role and facilitate the integration of renewables, the researchers argued.

      They also urged the Chinese authorities to halt permits for new coal power projects and reassess those that have already been permitted, while favouring grid expansion, energy trade across provinces and storage as ways to boost energy reliability.

      The post China’s coal power rebounds as record clean energy goes to waste appeared first on Climate Home News.

      China’s coal power rebounds as record clean energy goes to waste

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