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The hot, dry and windy weather preceding the wildfires that tore through Chile and Argentina last month was made around three times more likely due to human-caused climate change.

This is according to a rapid attribution study by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) service.

Devastating wildfires hit multiple parts of South America throughout January.

The fires claimed the lives of 23 people in Chile and displaced thousands of people and destroyed vast areas of native forests and grasslands in both Chile and Argentina.

The authors find that the hot, dry and windy conditions that drove the “high fire danger” are expected to occur once every five years, but that these conditions would have been “rarer” in a world without climate change.

In today’s climate, rainfall intensity during the “fire season” is around 20-25% lower in the areas covered by the study than it would be in a world without human-caused emissions, the study adds.

Study author Prof Friederike Otto, professor of climate science at Imperial College London, told a press briefing:

“We’re confident in saying that the main driver of this increased fire risk is human-caused warming. These trends are projected to continue in the future as long as we continue to burn fossil fuels.”

‘Significant’ damage

The recent wildfires in Chile and Argentina have been “one of the most significant and damaging events in the region”, the report says.

In the lead-up to the fires, both countries were gripped by intense heatwaves and droughts.

The authors analysed two regions – one in central Chile and the other in Argentine Patagonia, along the border between Argentina and Chile.

For example, in Argentina’s northern Patagonian Andes, the last recorded rainfall was in mid-November of 2025, according to the report. It adds that in early January, the region recorded 11 consecutive days of “extreme maximum temperatures”, marking the “second-longest warm spell in the past 65 years”.

Dr Juan Antonio Rivera, a researcher at the Argentine Institute of Snow Science, Glaciology and Environmental Sciences, told a WWA press briefing that these weather conditions dried out vegetation and decreased soil moisture, which meant that the fires “found abundant fuel to continue over time”.

In the northern Patagonian Andes of Argentina, wildfires started on 6 January in Puerto Patriada and spread over two national parks of Los Alerces and Lago Puelo and nearby regions. These fires remained active into the first week of February.

The fires engulfed more than 45,000 hectares of native and planted forest, shrublands and grasslands, including 75% of native forests in the village of Epuyén, notes the study.

At least 47 homes were burned, according to El País. La Nación reported that many families evacuated themselves to prevent any damage.

In south-central Chile, wildfires occurred from 17 to 19 January, affecting the Biobío, Ñuble and Araucanía regions.

They started near Concepción city, the capital of the Biobío region, where maximum temperatures reached 26C. In the nearby city of Chillán, temperatures reached 37C.

From there, the fires spread southwards to the coastal towns of Penco-Lirquen and Punta Parra, in the Biobío region.

The event left 23 people dead, 52,000 people displaced and more than 1,000 homes destroyed in the country, according to the study.

Inhabitants of Lirquen, in Chile, walk through the homes consumed by the flames in January 2026. Credit: UNAR Photo / Alamy Stock Photo.
Inhabitants of Lirquen, in Chile, walk through the homes consumed by the flames in January 2026. Credit: UNAR Photo / Alamy Stock Photo.

These wildfires burnt more than 40,000 hectares of forests, “tripling the amount of land burned in 2025” across the country, reported La Tercera.

The study adds that more than 20,000 hectares of non-native forest plantations, including Monterey pine and Eucalyptus trees, were consumed by the blaze and critical infrastructure was affected.

A WWA press release points out that the expansion of non-native pines and invasive species “has created highly flammable landscapes in Chile”.

Hot, dry and windy

Wildfires are complex events that are influenced by a wide range of factors, such as atmospheric moisture, wind speed and fuel availability.

To assess the impact of climate change on wildfires, the authors chose a “fire weather” metric called the “hot dry windy index” (HDWI). This combines maximum temperature, relative humidity and wind speed.

While this metric does not include every component that could contribute to intense wildfires, such as land-use change and fuel load data, study author Dr Claire Barnes from Imperial College London told a press briefing that HDWI is “a very good predictor of short-term, extreme, dry, fire-prone conditions”.

The authors chose to analyse two separate regions. The first lies along the coast and the foothills of the Andes around the Ñuble, Biobío and La Araucanía regions in central Chile. The second sits across the Chilean and Argentine border in Patagonia.

These regions are shown on the map below, where red circles indicate the wildfires recorded in January 2026 and pink boxes represent the study areas.

Location of forest fires in Chile and Argentina in January 2026 (red circles) and the study areas (pink boxes). Source: WWA (2026)
Location of forest fires in Chile and Argentina in January 2026 (red circles) and the study areas (pink boxes). Source: WWA (2026).

The authors also selected different time periods for the two study regions, to reflect the “different lengths of peak wildfire activity associated with the fires in each region”.

For the central Chilean study area, the authors focus their analysis on the two most severe days of HDWI, 17-18 January. For the Patagonian region, they focus on the most severe five-day period, which took place over 2-6 January.

To put the wildfire into its historical context, the authors analyse data on temperature, wind and rainfall to assess how HDWI over the two regions has changed since the year 1980.

They find that in both study regions, the high HWDI recorded in January is not “particularly extreme” in today’s climate and would typically be expected roughly once every five years. However, they add that the event would have been “rarer” in a world without climate change, in which average global temperatures are 1.3C cooler.

The authors also use a combination of observations and climate models to carry out an “attribution” analysis, comparing the world as it is today to a “counterfactual” world without human-caused climate change.

They find that climate change made the high HDWI three-times more likely in the central Chilean region and 2.5-times more likely in the Patagonian region.

The authors also conduct analysis focused solely on November-January rainfall.

Both study regions experienced “very low rainfall” in the months leading up to the fires, the authors say. They find that fire-season rainfall intensity is around 25% lower in the central Chilean region and 20% lower in the Patagonia region in today’s climate than it would have been in a world without climate change.

Finally, the authors considered the influence of climatic cycles such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a naturally occurring phenomenon that affects global temperatures and regional weather patterns.

They find that a combination of La Niña – the “cool” phase of ENSO – combined with another natural cycle called the Southern Annular Mode, led to atmospheric circulation patterns that “favoured the hot and dry conditions that enhanced fire persistence and severity in parts of the region”.

However, they add that this has a comparably small effect on the overall intensity of the wildfires, with climate change standing out as the main driver.

(These findings are yet to be published in a peer-reviewed journal. However, the methods used in the analysis have been published in previous attribution studies.)

Vulnerable communities

The wildfires affected native forests, national parks and small rural and tourist communities in both countries.

A 2025 study conducted in Chile, cited in the WWA analysis, found that 74% of survey respondents did not have appropriate education and awareness on wildfires.

This suggests that insufficient preparedness on early warning signs, response measures and prevention can “exacerbate the severity and frequency of these events”, the WWA authors say.

Aynur Kadihasanoglu, senior urban specialist at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Center, said in the WWA press release that many settlements in Chile are close to flammable pine plantations, which “puts lives and livelihoods at risk”.

Additionally, the head of Chile’s National Forest Corporation pointed to “structural shortcomings” in fire prevention, such as lack of regulation in lands without management plans, reported BioBioChile.

In Argentina, the response to the fires has been hampered by large budget cuts and reductions in forest rangers, according to the WWA press release. Experts have criticised Argentina’s self-styled “liberal-libertarian” president Javier Milei for the cuts and the delay to declaring a state of emergency in Patagonia.

According to the Associated Press, “Milei slashed spending on the National Fire Management Service by 80% in 2024 compared to the previous year”. The service “faces another 71% reduction in funds” in its 2026 budget, the newswire adds.

Argentinian native forests and grasslands are experiencing “intense pressure” from wildfires, according to the study. Many vulnerable native animal species, such as the huemul and the pudú, are losing critical habitat, while birds, such as the Patagonian black woodpecker, are losing nesting sites.

Huemul deer in Argentine Patagonia, one of the vulnerable animal species to wildfires in the region. Credit: Bernardo Galmarini / Alamy Stock Photo.
Huemul deer in Argentine Patagonia, one of the vulnerable animal species to wildfires in the region. Credit: Bernardo Galmarini / Alamy Stock Photo.

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EU carbon credits could supercharge world’s clean cooking push, France says

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The European Union’s plan to use international carbon credits to help meet its 2040 climate target could provide a “super solution” to accelerate the rollout of cleaner cooking technologies across the Global South, according to France’s top climate envoy .

With the bloc set to become a “big investor” in carbon credits as a result of its new climate law, efforts to replace polluting cooking stoves with cleaner alternatives could be scaled up, French climate ambassador Benoît Faraco told a summit on clean cooking hosted by the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Faraco said he had discussed that possibility with French fossil fuel giant TotalEnergies, which is involved in clean cooking offsetting programmes in Africa and has major plans to expand the adoption of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) for use in cookstoves in developing countries.

Controversial carbon credits

Starting in 2036, the EU will be allowed to count “high-quality” international carbon credits generated by partner countries under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement towards up to 5% of the emissions reductions required to meet its 2040 target of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 90%. Several climate experts and activists accused the bloc of watering down its commitments by including carbon credits in its climate target for the first time.

The amended climate law adopted in early February says the credits will need to follow “robust safeguards” and “ensure environmental integrity”. The European Commission and its member states have yet to determine which types of credits would qualify or how they would be sourced.

But a French diplomatic source, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Climate Home News that clean cooking should be considered among the sectors to be supported through Article 6 funding, adding that France was willing to engage with its partners on the topic.

    Clean cooking credits have regularly faced significant criticism from researchers and campaigners who argue that climate benefits are often exaggerated and weak monitoring can undermine claims of real emission reductions.

    “There is a significant risk in trading credits that have repeatedly failed to deliver on their promises, which has been a particular issue with cookstove projects,” said Benja Faecks, an expert at Brussels-based NGO Carbon Market Watch (CMW), adding that it was “far too early” for France to make recommendations on specific credit types.

    The French diplomatic source told Climate Home News that France will continue to advocate for the EU to forge partnerships with countries to develop a high-quality carbon credits supply chain.

    Total’s cooking gas expansion

    Speaking at the IEA summit held in Paris late last month, Faraco said he had discussed the use of carbon credits to fund clean cooking initiatives with TotalEnergies a few days earlier when he joined the French multinational on a visit to deliver LPG cooking units.

    TotalEnergies says it is investing over $400 million in LPG infrastructure – including canister storage and filling stations – to give 100 million people in Africa and India access to cleaner cooking alternatives to wood and charcoal.

    Jayanty Pathinera, 78, cooks rice with firewood in the fuel shortage at her house at a residential area for low-income, amid the country’s economic crisis, in Colombo, Sri Lanka, July 31, 2022. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon

    Jayanty Pathinera, 78, cooks rice with firewood in the fuel shortage at her house at a residential area for low-income, amid the country’s economic crisis, in Colombo, Sri Lanka, July 31, 2022. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon

    But while the company promotes the programme as a win for public health and the climate, it also stands to benefit commercially: the rollout would create a vast new market to absorb the growing volumes of oil and gas the company wants to produce across Africa.

    In Uganda, where TotalEnergies is leading the development of a major and controversial oil drilling project on the shores of Lake Albert, the French firm says it also provides “affordable” LPG cooking solutions to local communities aiming to avoid “critical deforestation”.

    Campaigners have said that gas is not clean nor affordable and pushing its adoption for cooking would lock vulnerable communities into a fossil fuel system. Faecks from CMW said the distribution of LPG cookstoves “very much suits Total’s interests”.

    TotalEnergies did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

    Major carbon market player

    The French company has long been involved in carbon markets and, in 2025, spent $73 million to buy carbon credits used to offset, on paper, the greenhouse gas emissions caused by its oil and gas operations.

    Last year, it announced that it had partnered with a carbon credit developer to distribute 200,000 cookstoves to households in Rwanda that it said would prevent the emission of more than 2.5 million tons of carbon dioxide over the next 10 years. TotalEnergies will acquire the credits produced by the project and use them from 2030 to offset some of its direct emissions.

    “Clean cooking contributes to long-term social, economic and human development in a more sustainable way,” Arnaud Le Foll, senior vice-president new business and carbon neutrality at TotalEnergies, said at the time.

    The post EU carbon credits could supercharge world’s clean cooking push, France says appeared first on Climate Home News.

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    Explainer: Will AI data centres make or break the energy transition?

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    For tech entrepreneur Elon Musk, the answer to the rocketing energy needs of artificial intelligence (AI) data centres is to launch them into space, where they could tap limitless energy from the sun. But until that happens, the places on Earth where these number-crunching mega-hubs are located face big spikes in electricity demand to run them.

    In the US, this has sparked fears of higher energy prices for consumers. To allay those concerns, President Donald Trump will reportedly convene big tech firms this week to sign a pledge to provide or pay for the extra energy supplies they will need as their AI data centres expand.

    According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), data centres accounted for 1.5% of electricity demand worldwide in 2024 – a share set to rise to about 3% by 2030. Overall, data centre demand is expected to more than double to about 945 terawatt-hours (TWh) by then, which is slightly above the electricity consumption of Japan today.

    AI data centres, where AI models are trained and deployed, put far more strain on power supplies than traditional data centres, which each use between 10 and 25 megawatts (MW). In comparison, demand from a “hyperscale” AI centre can exceed 100 MW at any given time, which if running at full capacity could consume as much electricity in a year as 100,000 households.

    Data-centre electricity consumption in household electricity consumption equivalents (million households), 2024

    (Source: IEA, Paris, 2025, Licence: CC by 4.0)

    (Source: IEA, Paris, 2025, Licence: CC by 4.0)

    We look at where this power might come from and whether, as some warn, AI is going to blow the world’s efforts to transition away from fossil fuels out of the water.

    Why does AI need so much electricity?

    AI data centres differ in how they use electric power. In a conventional data centre, data requests from businesses, individuals and other users come in a randomised way, translating into a steady load level on the servers, with relatively little fluctuation in demand.

    But in an AI data centre, processors need to go through training or learning periods, using so-called “graphical processing units”. These are synchronised, being started up and switched off at the same time. This translates into “power bursts”, which last just a few seconds, but happen very frequently and concurrently, according to Gerhard Salge, chief technology officer at Hitachi Energy.

    “That is a different challenge than just providing the power and the energy for the conventional data centres,” he told journalists at the International Renewable Energy Agency assembly in Abu Dhabi earlier this year.

    Here, officials and business executives discussed how to meet those demand peaks, noting they cannot be dealt with just by installing huge batteries as those would wear out quickly.

    Martin Pibworth, chief executive of SSE, a Scotland-based energy firm, said AI-led demand will put pressure on the power system, but “the problem we all have is no one really knows the pace and trajectory of that demand lift”. In the UK, the government’s Clean Power Plan will be needed to make sure electricity operators can meet demand from AI and other data centres as more come online, he added.

      In the US, meanwhile, the Trump administration is eager to ensure that communities that are home to data centres, as well as the wider public, do not turn against the industry due to its perceived unfairly high use of energy and water.

      Ahead of a meeting scheduled on March 4, where US tech titans are due to sign a pledge on powering their own data centres, White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers told CNBC: “Under this bold initiative, these massive companies will build, bring, or buy their own power supply for new AI data centres, ensuring that Americans’ electricity bills will not increase as demand grows.”

      Will electricity for data centres and AI come from clean or dirty sources of energy?

      The answer to this question is key to how countries tackle climate change, as it will affect their energy mix, how electricity is produced and distributed, and therefore the trajectory of their greenhouse gas emissions. Decisions made by governments and businesses will shape how the AI industry powers the technology on which it relies.

      Under pro-fossil fuel Trump, the US has walked away from policy support for clean energy, meaning data centre operators can choose their energy sources freely. In January, data from Global Energy Monitor (GEM) showed the US now has the most gas-fired power capacity in development, surpassing China and accounting for nearly a quarter of the world’s total.

      More than one-third of this capacity is set to directly power data centres on-site, in hotspots like Texas, and many more grid-connected gas-fired projects are planned to meet an expected increase in energy demand from AI, GEM said.

      On the other hand, some tech companies – especially multinationals – have set goals to cut their emissions to net zero, and so are choosing to power their data centres with renewables, including in the US.

      For example, French energy giant TotalEnergies recently signed two long-term Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) to deliver 1 gigawatt (GW) of solar capacity for Google’s data centres in Texas. This followed two other PPAs with Google for 1.2 GW secured by Clearway, a California-based renewables company 50%-owned by TotalEnergies.

      Sources of global electricity generation for data centres – base case, 2020-2035

      (Source: IEA, Paris, Licence: CC by 4.0)

      (Source: IEA, Paris, Licence: CC by 4.0)

      Some countries are also moving to ensure the power needed for AI and the data centre industry is produced using clean energy.

      In Ireland, an effective ban on new data centre connections was lifted in December, provided at least 80% of the centres’ annual energy demand is met by new renewable electricity sources. The government also plans to build Green Energy Parks, where data centres can be located alongside renewables plants to avoid straining the national grid.

      Salge of Hitachi Energy said that with big investors wanting to drive investment in AI data-crunching so fast, “there is no other power generation technology than variable renewables which you can build in such a timeline” of two to three years. “Anything else will be in the 2030s and later,” he added.

      Some governments – such as Sweden’s centre-right coalition have proposed nuclear as a clean energy solution for AI data centres, saying they could fuel a “renaissance”. But building nuclear power plants requires massive investment and long timelines, while new small-scale modular reactors are not yet commercially available.

      How are power systems and regulators coping so far?

      In a February report forecasting electricity demand out to 2030, the IEA said AI and data centres are contributing to generation growth in advanced economies, which is now accelerating again after 15 years of stagnation. However, it flagged bottlenecks in connecting new data centres, because grids are not being built or improved fast enough to keep up with rising power demand, forcing big customers to wait.

      The report noted that at least 150 GW of queued data centre projects are estimated to be in the advanced stages, while one-fifth of the global data centre build-out is at risk of delay due to grid congestion.

      Comment: Using energy-hungry AI to detect climate tipping points is a paradox

      Planning, permitting and completing new grid infrastructure can take five to 15 years, whereas data centres need one to three years. Prices for key grid components have also nearly doubled over the past five years, the IEA noted.

      The European Commission, meanwhile, aims to support those operators that can save on energy use. It plans to adopt a “Data Centre Energy Efficiency Package” in April that will contain an assessment of data submitted under a reporting scheme, introduce a rating scheme for data centres in the EU, and start work on minimum performance standards.

      Can AI help to resolve the issue?

      Experts say it’s important to look at both sides of the coin, pointing to ways in which AI can contribute to more effective power grid management and integration of renewables into national power supplies.

      According to new analysis by energy think-tank Ember, AI applications such as short-term renewables forecasting, predictive maintenance, and real-time monitoring and adjustment of transmission line capacity can deliver operational improvements in power systems.

      It estimates that AI could enable Southeast Asian nations, for example, to reduce their power sector costs by $45 billion-$67 billion through to 2035, depending on how much renewable energy they deploy. Potential AI-driven efficiency gains could cut emissions by 290 million to 386 million tonnes of CO2 over the next decade in ASEAN countries, it adds.

      “While power-hungry AI might initially stress the power systems, with various powerful applications it has the potential to significantly accelerate the energy transition and offset consumed energy rapidly,” Ember data analyst Lam Pham said in a statement.

      The post Explainer: Will AI data centres make or break the energy transition? appeared first on Climate Home News.

      Explainer: Will AI data centres make or break the energy transition?

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      New Investigation Reveals Forced Labour Tied to Tuna Sold in Australia

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      A new investigative report released by Greenpeace Southeast Asia, in collaboration with the Uniting Church in Australia, Synod of Victoria and Tasmania, has uncovered disturbing links between suspected forced labour in the Indonesian tuna fishing industry and seafood sold in Australia.

      The investigation analysed testimonies from 25 fishers working on 17 Indonesian tuna fishing vessels that supply the Australian market. These vessels supply five Indonesian processing companies, which in turn export to 18 Australian seafood companies, including major brands seen on our supermarket shelves.

      The findings raise urgent questions about human rights protections at sea and the integrity of seafood supply chains reaching Australian supermarket shelves.

      The crew of an Asian-flagged tuna longliner at work during a transshipment to a carrier mothership. © Greenpeace

      What the Investigation Found

      Fishers interviewed described experiencing multiple internationally recognised indicators of forced labour.

      Of the 11 forced labour indicators identified by the International Labour Organisation, the most frequently reported were:

      • Abuse of vulnerability (56%)
      • Debt bondage (56%)
      • Deception (40%)

      The report reveals a multi-layered recruitment network in Indonesia that channels vulnerable workers from rural areas into exploitative situations. Labour brokers, known locally as calo, collaborate with vessel administrators and manage recruitment. Fishers reported being lured with promises of high salaries and advance loans, only to be charged illegal and inflated fees for travel, training and documentation.

      Diver Joel Gonzaga of the the Philippine purse seiner ‘Vergene’ at work in the international waters of high seas. © Alex Hofford / Greenpeace

      The investigation also found that labour exploitation at sea is intertwined with environmental crime. Companies allegedly pushed vessels and fishers to engage in illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing practices, including shark finning and the deployment of illegal fish aggregating devices.

      75 kilograms of shark fins from at least 42 sharks found in the freezer of the Shuen De Ching No.888. Under Taiwanese law and Pacific fishing rules, shark fins may not exceed 5% of the weight of the shark catch, and with only three shark carcasses reported in the log book, the vessel was in clear violation of both. © Paul Hilton / Greenpeace

      The link between labour abuse and environmental destruction is not accidental. It reflects an extractive system that externalises both human and ecological costs to sustain profit margins.

      Industrial fishing not only exploits vulnerable workers and undermines human rights, it also strips life from our oceans, degrading fragile ecosystems and pushing marine wildlife toward collapse.

      What Needs to Happen Now

      The report calls for urgent action from both governments and industry.

      The Indonesian Government must:

      • Enforce decent and effective work at sea policies aligned with international standards.
      • Ensure ethical recruitment practices.
      • Guarantee fair wages and protections for Indonesian fishers.

      The Australian Government must:

      • Prohibit seafood products linked to labour exploitation and forced labour from entering Australian markets.

      Seafood companies in both countries must:

      • Conduct robust human rights and environmental due diligence across their supply chains.

      These are not abstract policy fixes. They are necessary steps to prevent modern slavery at sea and to stop environmental crime from being embedded in global seafood trade.

      Environmental Justice and Ocean Protection Go Hand in Hand

      This investigation highlights something fundamental. Human rights and ocean protection are inseparable.

      Environmental justice means the fair treatment and meaningful involvement of everyone in creating a healthy environment. When workers are exploited and forced into dangerous conditions, environmental laws are often ignored too. Abuse at sea and ocean destruction are two sides of the same industrial system.

      Destructive industrial fishing methods such as longlining and bottom trawling continue to pillage and industrialise the ocean. They kill wildlife, destroy fragile habitats and undermine the resilience of marine ecosystems.

      If we want a thriving ocean, we must protect both the people who work on them and the ecosystems themselves.

      Why This Matters for Australia and the Global Ocean Treaty

      The Australian Government is on the cusp of ratifying the Global Ocean Treaty, the legal instrument allowing governments to create high seas ocean sanctuaries free from industrial fishing. Once Australia has ratified, it has the critical tool it needs to protect the ocean and safeguard beautiful and endangered species like whales, dolphins and sharks from destructive fishing methods in the high seas.

      A silky shark and other marine life. © Paul Hilton / Greenpeace

      Vast, robust ocean sanctuaries are a crucial solution to the ocean crisis. These high seas sanctuaries will provide a blue haven where wildlife can rest, recover and thrive. Greenpeace Australia Pacific is calling on the Australian government to champion multiple high sea ocean sanctuaries in our region, starting with a first generation ocean sanctuary in the South Tasman Sea between Australia and Aotearoa, free from industrial fishing, whaling and the threat of deep sea mining.

      As this investigation shows, the stakes are not only environmental, they are deeply human.

      Australia has an opportunity to lead by cleaning up seafood supply chains at home and by championing ambitious ocean protection globally by creating fully protected ocean sanctuaries. Protecting workers’ rights and protecting ocean wildlife must happen together.

      https://www.greenpeace.org.au/article/new-investigation-reveals-forced-labour-tied-to-tuna-sold-in-australia/

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