Back in 2021, the CEO of BlackRock – which manages $10 trillion of assets – took to a stage in Riyadh to predict that the next 1,000 billion-dollar startups would not be media companies or search engines but businesses developing “green hydrogen, green agriculture, green steel and green cement”.
Fast forward four years, and Larry Fink has changed his tune, telling an audience of oil and gas executives in Houston last week: “Everyone talks about the opportunity with hydrogen. Well, we can have green hydrogen and blue hydrogen, but is anybody willing to pay the cost?”
Other speakers at the “CERAWeek by S&P Global” conference in Texas were similarly down on the prospects for clean hydrogen, a gas that can replace fossil fuels in sectors that are hard to otherwise clean up, like shipping, aviation, chemicals, steel and cement.
The CEO of oil company Saudi Aramco, Amin Nasser, pointed to the high cost of green hydrogen compared to fossil fuels as a demonstration of “the fiction that critical transition technologies are genuinely competitive and being rapidly deployed”.
“Many were aiming for $1 per kilogram [for green hydrogen] by 2030. Yet production costs alone currently range wildly from almost $4 per kilogram to $12,” he said, comparing International Energy Agency (IEA) figures on the cost today with the Biden administration’s targeted cost for 2030.
Even sellers of clean hydrogen accepted that mood has shifted down a gear. David Burns, vice-president of global clean energy at industrial gases multinational Linde, said there’s now “more a sense of realism, a more kind of pragmatic approach to what’s going to work”. But, he added, viable projects which “meet the willingness to pay for customers in different sectors” are still moving forward.
Green hydrogen costs more
According to the IEA, producing green hydrogen – which is made with renewable energy – is between 1.5 and 6 times more expensive than the traditional, most common and polluting way of making it, with unabated fossil fuels.
But this could change, the IEA says. The price of fossil gas could rise or carbon pricing could make fossil fuel-based hydrogen more expensive. Or large-scale deployment of green hydrogen could bring the cost per kilo down from the $4-$12 Aramco’s Nasser cited to $2-$9 by 2030. It could go even lower in parts of China, the IEA says, where abundant solar meets cheaper electrolysers – the equipment that turns water into hydrogen.
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“The future cost evolution will depend on numerous factors, such as technology development, and particularly on the level and pace of deployment,” the IEA said in its latest global hydrogen review.
But as BlackRock’s Fink noted, high prices are proving a barrier to deployment. Companies like BP and Ørsted have cancelled or delayed green hydrogen production projects in recent months, citing unfavourable economics.
Governments boost hydrogen demand
Some governments have stepped in to try and increase demand. The European Union, for example, has set a mandate that synthetic fuels, including those based on green hydrogen, must make up 1.2% of all the plane fuel at its airports by 2030 and 35% by 2050.
The EU has similar measures for shipping, while a German government programme aims to cover the extra cost of buying clean hydrogen in industries like steel, cement, paper and glass, so that it is not a financial risk.
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These policies have helped, the IEA says – but “the overall scale of these efforts remains inadequate for hydrogen to contribute to meeting climate goals”. In October, the Paris-based analysts revised their forecast for 2030 hydrogen demand down by about a fifth compared to the previous year.
Green hydrogen’s supply problems
Estimates of supplies of green hydrogen also look likely to have been overstated. Experts told Climate Home recently that a planned pipeline to bring hydrogen from North Africa to Europe will struggle to deliver the quantities the European Union is hoping for.
Adrian Odenweller, a researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), warned that the EU should “certainly not count on the delivery” of green hydrogen from Algeria and Tunisia any time soon.
“Green hydrogen production projects have a poor track record and often get delayed. I would expect this to be even worse for massive infrastructure projects such as pipelines that require international coordination,” he said.
The SoutH2 pipeline and production facilities face opposition from campaigners too. Shereen Talaat, director of MENAFem Movement, a North African feminist justice network, said in a statement by nearly 90 NGOs criticising the huge project that it “exploits African land, water, and labour to feed Europe’s energy needs, while women – especially in rural and frontline communities – bear the brunt of water scarcity, land dispossession, and energy poverty”.
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Green hydrogen projects require land to build facilities and water and renewable electricity to produce the hydrogen. Areas with a lot of sun – which helps produce green hydrogen cheaply – often don’t have much water. The IEA says that 40% of green hydrogen projects are in water-stressed areas like those around the Mediterranean, Mexico and Northern India.
To address this issue, many developers in dry countries like Saudi Arabia, Australia and Mauritania are developing desalination plants to supply their green hydrogen facilities with water so they do not take it away from locals.
For all its challenges, Wood Mackenzie analyst Hector Arreola believes clean hydrogen is the “most viable pathway to deep decarbonisation” in steel, cement, chemicals and heavy transport – and the only green solution for emissions of ammonia, methanol and refining.
“While hydrogen’s broader adoption may take longer to materialise due to current cost barriers, the path to cost reduction is well-established,” he said. “As technology scales, electrolyser efficiency improves, and renewable energy costs continue to fall, production costs are expected to decline – following a trajectory similar to that of solar and wind.”
The post Clean hydrogen hype fades as high costs dampen demand appeared first on Climate Home News.
A new storm recovery charge could soon hit Georgia Power customers’ bills, as climate change drives more destructive weather across the state.
Hurricane Helene may be long over, but its costs are poised to land on Georgians’ electricity bills. After the storm killed 37 people in Georgia and caused billions in damage in September 2024, Georgia Power is seeking permission from state regulators to pass recovery costs on to customers.
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Gabrielle Dreyfus is chief scientist at the Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development, Thomas Röckmann is a professor of atmospheric physics and chemistry at Utrecht University, and Lena Höglund Isaksson is a senior research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
This March scientists and policy makers will gather near the site in Italy where methane was first identified 250 years ago to share the latest science on methane and the policy and technology steps needed to rapidly cut methane emissions. The timing is apt.
As new tools transform our understanding of methane emissions and their sources, the evidence they reveal points to a single conclusion: Human-caused methane emissions are still rising, and global action remains far too slow.
This is the central finding of the latest Global Methane Status Report. Four years into the Global Methane Pledge, which aims for a 30% cut in global emissions by 2030, the good news is that the pledge has increased mitigation ambition under national plans, which, if fully implemented, could result in the largest and most sustained decline in methane emissions since the Industrial Revolution.
The bad news is this is still short of the 30% target. The decisive question is whether governments will move quickly enough to turn that bend into the steep decline required to pump the brake on global warming.
What the data really show
Assessing progress requires comparing three benchmarks: the level of emissions today relative to 2020, the trajectory projected in 2021 before methane received significant policy focus, and the level required by 2030 to meet the pledge.
The latest data show that global methane emissions in 2025 are higher than in 2020 but not as high as previously expected. In 2021, emissions were projected to rise by about 9% between 2020 and 2030. Updated analysis places that increase closer to 5%. This change is driven by factors such as slower than expected growth in unconventional gas production between 2020 and 2024 and lower than expected waste emissions in several regions.
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This updated trajectory still does not deliver the reductions required, but it does indicate that the curve is beginning to bend. More importantly, the commitments already outlined in countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions and Methane Action Plans would, if fully implemented, produce an 8% reduction in global methane emissions between 2020 and 2030. This would turn the current increase into a sustained decline. While still insufficient to reach the Global Methane Pledge target of a 30% cut, it would represent historical progress.
Solutions are known and ready
Scientific assessments consistently show that the technical potential to meet the pledge exists. The gap lies not in technology, but in implementation.
The energy sector accounts for approximately 70% of total technical methane reduction potential between 2020 and 2030. Proven measures include recovering associated petroleum gas in oil production, regular leak detection and repair across oil and gas supply chains, and installing ventilation air oxidation technologies in underground coal mines. Many of these options are low cost or profitable. Yet current commitments would achieve only one third of the maximum technically feasible reductions in this sector.
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Agriculture and waste also provide opportunities. Rice emissions can be reduced through improved water management, low-emission hybrids and soil amendments. While innovations in technology and practices hold promise in the longer term, near-term potential in livestock is more constrained and trends in global diets may counteract gains.
Waste sector emissions had been expected to increase more rapidly, but improvements in waste management in several regions over the past two decades have moderated this rise. Long-term mitigation in this sector requires immediate investment in improved landfills and circular waste systems, as emissions from waste already deposited will persist in the short term.
New measurement tools
Methane monitoring capacity has expanded significantly. Satellite-based systems can now identify methane super-emitters. Ground-based sensors are becoming more accessible and can provide real-time data. These developments improve national inventories and can strengthen accountability.
However, policy action does not need to wait for perfect measurement. Current scientific understanding of source magnitudes and mitigation effectiveness is sufficient to achieve a 30% reduction between 2020 and 2030. Many of the largest reductions in oil, gas and coal can be delivered through binding technology standards that do not require high precision quantification of emissions.
The decisive years ahead
The next 2 years will be critical for determining whether existing commitments translate into emissions reductions consistent with the Global Methane Pledge.
Governments should prioritise adoption of an effective international methane performance standard for oil and gas, including through the EU Methane Regulation, and expand the reach of such standards through voluntary buyers’ clubs. National and regional authorities should introduce binding technology standards for oil, gas and coal to ensure that voluntary agreements are backed by legal requirements.
One approach to promoting better progress on methane is to develop a binding methane agreement, starting with the oil and gas sector, as suggested by Barbados’ PM Mia Mottley and other leaders. Countries must also address the deeper challenge of political and economic dependence on fossil fuels, which continues to slow progress. Without a dual strategy of reducing methane and deep decarbonisation, it will not be possible to meet the Paris Agreement objectives.
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The next four years will determine whether available technologies, scientific evidence and political leadership align to deliver a rapid transition toward near-zero methane energy systems, holistic and equity-based lower emission agricultural systems and circular waste management strategies that eliminate methane release. These years will also determine whether the world captures the near-term climate benefits of methane abatement or locks in higher long-term costs and risks.
The Global Methane Status Report shows that the world is beginning to change course. Delivering the sharper downward trajectory now required is a test of political will. As scientists, we have laid out the evidence. Leaders must now act on it.
The post Curbing methane is the fastest way to slow warming – but we’re off the pace appeared first on Climate Home News.
Curbing methane is the fastest way to slow warming – but we’re off the pace
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