Climate change and “unsustainable human activities” are driving “unprecedented changes” to mountains and glaciers, threatening access to fresh water for more than two billion people, a UN report warns.
The 2025 UN world water development report finds that receding snow and ice cover in mountain regions could have “severe” consequences for people and nature.
Up to 60% of the world’s freshwater originates in mountain regions, which are home to 1.1bn people and 85% of species of birds, amphibians and mammals.
The report highlights a wide range of impacts, including reduced water for drinking and agriculture, stress on local ecosystems and increased risk of “devastating” glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs).
It also notes the deep spiritual and cultural connections that mountain-dwelling communities around the world have with mountains and glaciers, from India’s Hindu Kush Himalaya to Colombia’s Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta.
One expert tells Carbon Brief that glacier loss is already causing “loss of life, loss of livelihood and most importantly of all, the loss of a place that many communities have called home for generations”.
The report showcases a range of adaptation responses that communities are already implementing, including changing farming practices, producing better water storage systems and improving early warning systems for floods and landslides.
It also stresses the need for further funding and adaptation, as well as the importance of Indigenous knowledge and international collaboration.
Water towers
The annual UN world water development report unpacks a different aspect of “water and sanitation” each year and gives policy recommendations to decisionmakers. This year’s report focuses on mountains on glaciers, because 2025 has been designated by the UN as the “international year of glaciers’ preservation”.
Mountains are often called the world’s “water towers” due to their crucial role in the global water cycle.
Ice and snow accumulate at high latitudes every winter when temperatures are cool, before melting when summer brings warmer weather. This meltwater is an important source of water for streams – especially during hot, dry periods, when it plays a crucial role in keeping rivers flowing and providing a buffer against water stress.
It is often said that two billion people rely on mountain water from glaciers for their day-to-day needs.
The report says this figure refers to the number of people who live in drainage basins that originate in mountains – but adds that the role of glaciers in freshwater provision is “nuanced” and varies around the world.
Mountains provide 55-60% of annual freshwater flows globally – but this percentage can vary between 40% and 90% in different parts of the world, according to the authors.
Rivers including the Colorado, Nile and Rio Negro rely on water from the mountains for at least 90% of their water flow, the report says.
It adds that many of the world’s largest cities, including Tokyo, Los Angeles and New Delhi, are “critically dependent” on mountain water for a range of sectors.
The report also highlights how mountains are crucial for the power sector, with hydropower one of the main industries in mountain areas. For example, it notes that 85% of hydropower generated in Andean countries is produced in mountain areas.
Meanwhile, two-thirds of irrigated agriculture depends on the runoff contribution from mountains, according to the report.
It adds that mountain communities play a critical role in maintaining crop biodiversity and “preserve many of the rarest crop varieties and medicinal plants”.
Melting glaciers
Most water from snow and ice reserves in the mountains comes from melting snow, according to the report. However, glaciers – slow-moving rivers of ice that form from an accumulation of snow over many years – are also a key part of the mountain cryosphere.
(The cryosphere refers to frozen components of the Earth system that are at or below the land and ocean surface.)
Around 10% of the world’s land surface is currently covered by around 200,000 glaciers, which store approximately 70% of the Earth’s fresh water.
The map below marks the location of the world’s glaciers. In the field of glaciology, 19 “glacierised” regions are often used to help scientists to compare glaciers from different parts of the world. These regions are shown by the boxes and numbers.
The report says that “all mountain ranges” have shown evidence of warming since the early 20th century. It warns that, as global temperatures rise, more mountain precipitation will fall as rain instead of snow, causing snowpacks to thin and melt earlier in the year.
This acceleration in snowpack melt often causes river flow to increase in glacier-fed water basins and rivers in the short term. However, once the snow melts beyond a certain threshold, a “peak water” point is passed and river flow declines again.
The report says there is “strong evidence” that this “peak water” point has already been passed in the glacial-fed rivers of the tropical Andes, western Canada and the Swiss Alps.
Meanwhile, many glaciers have disappeared entirely. For example, Colombia has lost 90% of its glacial area since the mid-19th century, according to the report.
It highlights the “rapid disappearance” of the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta glacier – one of the few glaciers located near the Caribbean Sea. The glacier is a source for more than 30 rivers, while also being an “irreplaceable site for biodiversity” and sacred to four different Indigenous communities, according to the report.
The plot below shows cumulative mass changes of glaciers in different world regions over 1950-2023, measured in 1,000kg per square metre. The average of all nine regions is shown by the dotted black line.
The report warns that, as the climate warms, many glaciers will “inevitably” disappear over the coming decades. It points to projections that suggest that warming of 1.5-4C will cause glaciers to lose 26-41% of their 2015 mass by 2100.
The authors also discuss the ecological consequences of warming. Mountains make up just one-quarter of the Earth’s surface, but are home to unique ecosystems and more than 85% of the world’s species of amphibians, birds, and mammals – many of which cannot be found anywhere else in the world.
As mountains warm, ecological communities are likely to shift to higher elevations, the authors say. In addition, as warming causes the water cycle to become more “unpredictable and extreme”, many of these species will face additional stressors, they add.
Hazards
The authors warn that climate change and the “rapid and unplanned urbanisation” of mountain regions is “placing pressure on fragile mountain ecosystems, affecting water availability, quality and security”.
For example, deforestation can drive up the risk of hazards such as landslides and GLOFs – the sudden release of water from a lake formed from glacial melt – the authors say.
GLOFs have caused more than 12,000 deaths in the past 200 years, as well as causing “severe damage to farmland, homes, bridges, roads, hydropower plants and cultural assets, often prompting further internal displacement”, the report says.
It adds that the frequency of GLOFs has “increased significantly” since the 1900s. These events are expected to continue rising over the coming decades – creating “new hotspots of potentially dangerous GLOF hazards and risks”.
The report contains a section on the Hindu Kush Himalaya region, which is highly vulnerable to GLOFs. It says that glaciers here are melting faster than the global average – and warns that under global warming scenarios of 1.5-2C, glacier volume in the region may reduce by 30-50% by 2100.
The report warns that GLOFs in the region are expected to triple by the end of the century, stressing that “many of the consequences will go beyond the limits of adaptation”.
More than 60 GLOF events were recorded in the Hindu Kush over 2010-20. A recent study found that thawing permafrost played a key role in the South Lhonak Lake GLOF, which took place in 2023 in the state of Sikkim.
Indigenous peoples
The report also emphasises the impacts of melting glaciers and snowpacks on Indigenous peoples and local communities. These groups “have long-standing connections to land and water in mountain regions, which are deeply rooted in their cultural, spiritual and subsistence practices”.
For example, glaciologist Dr Heidi Sevestre from the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme told a press briefing about the “cultural and spiritual importance of these mountains and glaciers” to the Bakonzo people, who live in the foothills of Uganda’s Rensui glaciers.
Sevestre explained that this community – which has “probably one of the lowest carbon footprints in the world” – is “worried that they could be punished by their gods if the ice disappears”.
The map below shows more examples of the impacts of climate water and cryosphere changes on “Indigenous peoples and local communities in cold regions”.
Tenzing Chogyal Sherpa is a cryosphere analyst at the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development. He tells Carbon Brief that glaciers are “the most visible and vivid indicators of a planet in crisis”.
He adds that glacier loss is already causing “the loss of life, loss of livelihood and most importantly of all, the loss of a place that many communities have called home for generations”.
Resilience-building
Mountains have a wide range of climates, geologies and vegetation types, creating an “exceptional need” for robust systems for collecting and managing hydrological data, the report says.
However, monitoring networks in the high mountains are currently “sparse” and models are low-resolution, resulting in “uncertain” observations and predictions, it notes.
For example, only 28 of the 50,000 glaciers in the Hindu Kush Himalaya currently have active monitoring of mass changes, the report says. Safe, accessible glaciers are often selected for monitoring, which can make observations biased, it adds.
To fill these gaps in data, the authors stress the importance of incorporating Indigenous knowledge and encouraging international collaboration.
Dr Aditi Mukherji – the director of the climate change, adaptation and mitigation impact action platform of the CGIAR – tells Carbon Brief that the report is an important call for more “adaptation efforts and funding”.
She says that mountain-dwelling communities are “already quite vulnerable due to their remote location and other developmental deficits” and are “increasingly losing their way of life due to no fault of theirs”.
Examples of adaptation are prominent throughout the report. For example, it highlights communities who are installing drainage pipes, artificial dams and early warming systems to lakes throughout the Andes to increase resilience against GLOFs.
Meanwhile, the Rhône glacier in Valais, Switzerland, has been covered in white sheets designed to keep it cool. And in Ladakh, in northern India, villagers have developed four types of “ice reservoirs” to supplement water flow for agriculture in the spring.
Sahana Subramaniam – a PhD student at Lund University’s Centre for Sustainability Studies – welcomes the attention being given to glaciers this year to mark the UN-designated “international year of glacier preservation”.
She tells Carbon Brief about a wide range of conferences, panels, workshops and meetings being organised on the topic, many of which have been interdisciplinary in nature, bringing together physical and social scientists. “It’s quite seminal that so much attention is being given to this topic this year,” she adds.
Dr James Kirkham is a glaciologist and climate scientist at the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative. He tells Carbon Brief that the UN’s focus on glaciers and mountains this year could serve as a “springboard to help political leaders focus on the multi-lateral cooperation, political leadership [and] long-term thinking”.
The post Glacier melt threatens water supplies for two billion people, UN warns appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Glacier melt threatens water supplies for two billion people, UN warns
After a five-year long legal battle, the Constitutional Court of South Africa has blocked Shell and local partner Impact Africa’s permit to explore for oil and gas off the country’s East Coast, in a landmark victory for local communities and civil society.
“Today’s judgment makes me feel very happy and proud that the ocean is not for profit for mining companies,” said East Coast resident and environmental campaigner Siyabonga Ndovela.
The verdict culminates a years-long process in which non-profits Sustaining the Wild Coast, Natural Justice, Greenpeace Africa, and others took legal action against Shell, Impact Africa and the South African government for failing to consult affected communities – a legal requirement in the country.
The Constitutional Court ruled that Shell and Impact Africa had not complied with resource governance law, had failed to meaningfully conduct public consultation and had failed to consider the impact on climate change, cultural rights, livelihoods and ecological harm.
The ruling references last year’s landmark advisory opinion by the International Court of Justice, which states that countries have a legal duty to prevent and repair damage to the climate system. The South African judges argued climate change “transcends borders” and that states’ obligations “must be understood within the broader framework of international law.”
“This case must also be understood against the backdrop of well-documented struggles by coastal communities to protect their land, marine resources and ways of life in the face of extractive activities that they believe threaten their very existence,” wrote Justice Narandran Kollapen.
The Constitutional Court found that the exploration right had been unlawfully granted by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources.The ruling upholds a 2022 regional court decision against Shell and overturns a 2024 appeal that allowed the company to conduct fresh public consultations under the original exploration right. Today’s decision means the right, initially granted in 2014, must be set aside.
Celebrating the decision, Sherelee Odyar, oil and gas campaigner at Greenpeace Africa, told Climate Home News that the court confirmed “serious failures” in the awarding of exploration rights to Shell and Impact Africa, which “can not simply be corrected later”.
The Wild Coast is a biodiversity hotspot which has been conserved over generations by coastal communities who rely on the ocean and land. “Our land and sea are central to our livelihoods and our way of life. Over generations we have conserved them, and they have conserved us,” reads the founding statement in the case.
A Shell spokesperson said it noted the ruling, responding that “we are committed to responsible offshore exploration, meaningful stakeholder engagement and environmental stewardship.”
The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources did not respond to requests for comment at the time of publication.
“Renewed strength” for communities
The ruling adds to a series of legal challenges brought by civil society groups against oil companies and the government as South Africa has expanded oil and gas development since 2014 under Operation Phakisa, a plan aimed at “unlocking the economic potential of the oceans”.
On the West Coast, Walter Steenkamp, Chair of Aukotowa Fisheries Cooperative, which is involved in a separate ongoing legal action against TotalEnergies, said that “today’s court case gave me renewed strength.”
The case could also set a precedent for future oil developments, said Alessandro Mazzi, legal governance researcher at the University of Wageningen. He added that the verdict “sends a strong signal to investors that where projects affect people’s land, livelihoods and environment, meaningful consultation and genuine ecological assessment are an integral part of responsible investment”.
Janet Solomon, coordinator of advocacy group Oceans not Oil, said that the Court’s emphasis on democratic participation, culture, livelihoods and the health of future generations in handing down the verdict signals a shift in jurisprudence on environmental governance, saying that this focus “may prove to be the judgment’s most enduring legacy.”
The post South Africa’s top court blocks Shell’s offshore oil exploration right appeared first on Climate Home News.
South Africa’s top court blocks Shell’s offshore oil exploration right
China has published a new five-year plan for coal, the latest in a slew of important policy documents for the country’s energy transition.
The 15th five-year plan for the development of the coal industry was published by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration (NEA) on 10 August, covering the period 2026-2030.
This is a key period, covering the years building up to China’s pledge to peak its carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions “before 2030”.
Government-affiliated organisations had previously mooted the possibility of coal consumption peaking before 2027.
However, the new plan does not set a specific, government-endorsed year for peaking coal consumption, instead including a broader goal to peak use of the fuel in this five-year period.
It also discusses the “green and low-carbon transition” of the coal industry, coal-related methane emissions and the “clean and efficient use” of the fuel.
But, in general, the plan emphasises the importance of coal in China’s energy system and focuses on the systems underpinning its production.
Analysts tell Carbon Brief that the plan confirms a “broader trend” – driven by the conflict in the Middle East – in which coal’s role in China as a “cheap and secure” source of energy is reinforced – instead of plotting a phase-down or transition for the industry.
Nevertheless, as the deadline for peaking CO2 emissions looms, the plan does warn the sector of the need to diversify into other industries – including clean energy and chemicals – as coal consumption peaks.
Below, Carbon Brief looks closer at what the plan means for China’s use of coal over the next five years and how it relates to wider climate targets.
What does the plan say about peaking coal?
Five-year plans are a key tool in Chinese governance, used to guide economic and social development across the economy.
The plan for coal is the latest topic-specific document to address climate and energy matters within the 15th five-year plan period of 2026-30. It is subordinate to the overarching 15th five-year plan, which covers China’s broad socio-economic strategy.
Other topic-specific plans for the period cover climate change, developing a “new-type energy system” and renewable energy, among other topics.
The coal plan opens by stating that coal is a “foundational [source of] energy” for China:
“[Coal is] vital to the national economy, people’s livelihoods and national energy security, and plays a crucial role in providing foundational support and systemic regulation within the energy supply system.”
However, the plan also covers the 15th five-year plan period (2026-2030), the final five-year period before China is expected to have peaked its carbon emissions.
The 15th five-year plan period marks a time of “significant transformation” for the coal industry, the plan says.
Policy documents issued in April 2026 called for the “strict control” of fossil fuels and created a framework for local governments to be graded on coal use in their region.
Coal has traditionally been the largest source of energy in China and is responsible for around 80% of its emissions.
But its role is gradually being superseded by non-fossil energy, which accounted for more than half of the country’s power mix in 2025. In the first half of 2026, coal supplied less than 50% of power generation, while its share of total energy consumption fell to 51.4%, as shown below.
The five-year plan for coal signals “continuity” of China’s aim of “safeguarding energy security while advancing the low-carbon transition”, says Kevin Tu, non-resident fellow at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy.
Another key factor behind the plan is concerns from policymakers around energy security, exacerbated by the conflict in the Middle East.
In an article published in early August, the Communist party-affiliated People’s Daily noted the “severe volatility” the war has created in energy markets, adding that “China’s energy system has withstood these shocks”.
It quoted NEA head Wang Hongzhi stating in a press conference that “coal is [China’s] greatest source of confidence in ensuring a stable energy supply”.
The conflict will “reinforce coal’s role in China’s energy system”, both as a source of energy and as a feedstock for commodities, Li Shuo, China climate hub director at the Asia Society Policy Institute, tells Carbon Brief.
The plan outlines a number of aims to be achieved by 2030, starting with a goal to “further strengthen” the coal industry’s “ability to be a ‘bottom-line guarantee’”.
The other targets in the plan, to be achieved by 2030, include:
- Peaking coal consumption;
- “Basically establishing” a modern coal-industrial system;
- Optimising the “layout” of coal production and development;
- Increasing the proportion of “high-quality, advanced” coal-production capacity;
- “Clearly improving” levels of “safe, green development” and “clean, efficient use” of coal;
- Increasing the share of coal produced by “large-scale, modernised coal mines” to 87%;
- Developing a diversified coal-based industrial structure;
- Improving mechanisms to ensure a “dynamic balance” between supply and demand.
The large share of China’s CO2 emissions that come from coal and China’s carbon-peaking and neutrality targets are not the main focus of the five-year plan.
“This is clearly neither a coal phase-out nor phase-down plan,” Tu tells Carbon Brief. He adds that it grants China “considerable flexibility…over the pace of the transition”.
A pledge to peak coal consumption during the five-year plan period is reiterated several times in the document. Notably, the plan says that China will “promote coal consumption successfully reaching a peak”.
This, it says, is “guided” by China’s “dual-carbon” goals for peaking and neutrality, but is also based on the premise of “guaranteeing the secure supply of energy”
However, the plan does not provide a government-endorsed target year for peaking consumption.
State-affiliated organisations, such as Xinhua, have suggested that coal consumption is “expected to peak around 2027”. Independent analysis has stated that emissions from coal consumption may have already peaked.
“The absence of a 2027 deadline is significant, but I would be careful not to over-interpret it,” Tu tells Carbon Brief.
While a 2027 peak for coal remains possible, in his view, it is dependent on factors such as “electricity-demand growth, renewable generation, industrial activity, weather conditions and coal demand from the chemical sector”.
Similarly, Li believes that it will be “market and technological progress”, rather than state directives, that determine exactly when coal consumption and emissions will peak.
“Beijing’s regulatory interventions, if any, will be limited to making sure the peaking timelines do not blow past 2030,” he says.
What does the plan say about China’s coal production?
The plan does not set a concrete target for coal production during the five-year plan period. In contrast, total coal production targets for 2015 and 2020 had been set in the 12th and 13th five-year plans.
The plan also reduces a target for “reserve production” capacity, which was first announced in 2024.
The plan reiterates that, by 2030, China should “establish a coal reserve-production capacity of 100m metric tonnes or more per year”. This was first mentioned in the 15th five-year plan for building a “new-type energy system”, published in June.
Despite China’s rapid buildout of renewable energy, reserve coal capacity is necessary, argues state news agency Xinhua. It says that, to balance the variability of renewable energy, coal will shift to “playing a supporting and regulating role to safeguard energy supply”.
Nevertheless, the new reserve goal is lower than the target of 300m tonnes of coal set when China first announced the establishment of the system in 2024.
“Overall, this five-year plan is targeted at the coal industry, not the energy transition”, says Yang Biqing, energy analyst at Ember, although the energy transition and the peaking of coal consumption form the overarching context for the plan.
Provinces in northern China will continue to provide the majority of China’s coal, according to the plan.
It reiterates a pledge from the new-type energy five-year plan that China will continue building “coal-supply security bases” in the provinces of Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and Xinjiang. It says these bases will supply more than 80% of China’s coal by 2030.
This does not indicate a change in direction, as coal production is already increasingly concentrated in northern China. In 2025, 82% of China’s coal came from these four provinces.
New or expanded coal mines in these provinces – with the exception of southern Xinjiang – must have a minimum annual production capacity of 1.2m tonnes, says the plan.
This is an “important signal”, Tu tells Carbon Brief. He notes that the plans suggest that “China’s coal transition is not simply about reducing the quantity consumed”, but also about creating a “more concentrated, efficient, flexible and resilient” coal system.
The plan also calls for a more centralised approach to managing coal. It states that in 2026-2030, any new production capacity must be “included in the single ledger” – essentially meaning that it must be approved by the central government – before it can be implemented.
Yang tells Carbon Brief that this could indicate that the government is trying to prevent a potential “rush” to get new capacity approved as coal consumption starts to plateau and fall.
What does the plan say about coal’s greenhouse gas emissions?
The plan includes sections on the need to “accelerate” the low-carbon transition of the industry, as well as the “clean and efficient use” of coal.
The former section largely focuses on the production and processing of coal, while the latter addresses emissions associated with its consumption.
Suggested policies include promoting energy efficiency, water conservancy and electrification, coupled with greater use of renewable-energy sources at coal mines.
In addition to promoting a successful peaking of coal consumption, the plan also re-affirms existing policies around promoting energy efficiency and carbon-emission reduction.
It calls for “accelerate energy conservation and consumption reduction in key coal-consuming industries”, largely through methods already established by existing policies.
This includes phasing out inefficient coal-fired equipment, replacing coal-fired equipment with “clean energy” alternatives, reducing use of “dispersed coal” and promoting clean heating sources such as distributed solar heating and waste heat utilisation.
Tom Wang, executive director of People of Asia for Climate Solutions, describes the plan as “more of a coal exploration plan, rather than a coal transition plan”. He tells Carbon Brief that while several policies call for “green” or “smart” development, the plan does not address the greenhouse gas emissions underpinning each step of coal extraction, processing and combustion.
Another major focus is on utilisation of coalbed methane, a significant source of China’s methane emissions.
China will “implement work plans to increase coalbed-methane reserves and production”, the plan says, including a “rapid ramp-up” of production in deep coalbed-methane sites.
Affixed to the main five-year plan is an appendix further detailing plans for coalbed methane.
It notes that utilising coalbed methane has “multiple benefits”, such as improving safety, “increasing the supply of clean energy” and reducing emissions. [Methane is a fossil fuel.]
The government is targeting 26bn cubic metres of coalbed-methane production and 6.5bn cubic metres of mine-gas utilisation by 2030, it says.
At least 18bn cubic metres will be sourced from the Ordos Basin, a region spanning several northern provinces, according to an action plan published by the NEA.
In its coverage of the Ordos action plan, the state-run newspaper China Daily said that developing coalbed methane is a “vital strategic move to optimise [China’s] energy mix and ensure domestic gas supply”.
Reporting by Xinhua and economic news outlet Jiemian said that coalbed methane could help China become an “energy powerhouse” and “secure [its] energy self-sufficiency”, respectively.
In addition, the coal industry will “steadily advance methane-emission control” and “actively participate in the reduction of non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gas emissions”, according to the appendix.
However, Sun Xiaopu, senior China counsel at the thinktank Institute For Governance and Sustainable Development, tells Carbon Brief, the plan “does not establish an absolute methane-emissions reduction target”.
She notes that the implications for emissions may only become clear as implementation frameworks for meeting the utilisation targets are released.
How does the plan tell coal companies to evolve?
Despite reaffirming the importance of coal, the plan emphasises that the overall role of the fuel in China will change. It adds that the coal industry must adapt to this changing reality.
As the coal industry “modernises”, coal companies must “strengthen management” of mine closures and exit plans. They must also plan for a “smooth transition” and “prudently handle” workforce relocation, debt resolution and ecological restoration, it says.
Companies should also be supported in expanding into industries such as “power, new energy and chemicals”, according to the plan.
A number of major coal producers, as well as at least one oil giant, have already established wings focused on “new energy”.
But the focus on the use of coal to make chemicals is one of the “most consequential parts of the plan”, says Tu.
China must promote the shift to coal being used “equally” as a fuel and a feedstock, the plan says.
The plan urges policymakers to push through “construction of strategic coal-to-oil and gas bases”
The chemicals sector is China’s fastest source of emissions growth, although it remains well behind power and other industries in terms of total emissions.
Tu notes that the plan calls on the coal-chemicals industry to decarbonise production, such as through low-carbon power, green hydrogen and carbon capture, utilisation and storage.
As such, he says, the policy signal is “not to exit coal chemicals, but to make them more efficient, higher-value and potentially less carbon-intensive”.
Li echoes this, telling Carbon Brief that the sector is “likely to receive a major boost from the conflict in Iran”. He adds:
“We will probably see further capacity expansion in the sector and I doubt environmental arguments will convince Chinese authorities to take a different approach.”
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The post Q&A: What does China’s 15th five-year plan for coal mean for climate action? appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Q&A: What does China’s 15th five-year plan for coal mean for climate action?
The world saw the lowest amount of new coal mine capacity brought online for at least 10 years in 2025, according to a new report, as clean energy displaces coal for electricity generation in East Asia.
A report by Global Energy Monitor (GEM) found that new coal mine capacity declined by nearly 40% from 2024, the second consecutive year new mine capacity has hit a decade low. This represents an acceleration of a steady decline that began in 2019.
The slowdown in new coal mine openings was driven by China and Australia, where new additions fell by 44% and 96%, respectively. In China, the report said this was partly due to solar and wind displacing coal for electricity generation – although coal rebounded in the first half of 2026 – and the National Energy Administration implementing new rules to curb new mine openings.
In Australia, a 96% reduction in new coal mine capacity was driven by shrinking demand from the countries that import Australian coal for electricity, like Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, the report said.
This trend is likely to continue, according to GEM, as the Australian state of New South Wales recently banned new coal mines on undeveloped greenfield land. South Korea has promised to stop building coal-fired power plants that cannot capture and store the emissions produced. Meanwhile, Japan is pushing for a post-Fukushima nuclear revival to displace coal.
This Australian coal community is co-designing its own green future
Globally, growth in coal demand has slowed over the last few years and the International Energy Agency expects it to plateau through to 2030 because of the growth of renewable energy, nuclear and fossil gas.
Openings down, pipeline up
But while new coal mine openings fell, the amount of global coal mine capacity proposed increased by 11%. This was almost entirely driven by a spate of projects in the eastern Indian states of Jharkhand and Odisha.
“If built,” the GEM report says, “the projects would commit India – a country with no formal coal phaseout timeline – to years of coal expansion and would put a 1.5C-aligned transition away from fossil fuels farther out of reach”.
The Indian government says it needs to increase coal production to meet growing electricity demand from economic growth and from dealing with heatwaves. It plans to open more than 20 new coal mines to meet its coal production targets.
Because of energy security concerns, India is also aiming to produce chemicals with Indian coal rather than imported gas. China is also pursuing this strategy, although the Global Energy Monitor report said that Indian coal’s high ash content means the South Asian nation will find it harder to make chemicals from coal.
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China’s coal-chemicals boom risks repeating the mistakes of the past
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Since then, wealthy nations have partnered with coal-producing countries like South Africa, Vietnam and Indonesia on plans to transition from coal to clean energy. But, after preliminary talks, India and these governments did not agree a JETP.
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