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China’s Grip on Lithium Tightens as Global Supply Struggles to Keep Up

China has strengthened its hold on the world’s lithium supply chain. The Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) updated China’s catalogue of technologies prohibited or restricted from export. They added important battery and lithium processing technologies. This includes lithium carbonate and hydroxide preparation, along with cathode material manufacturing.

The metal is essential for electric vehicles (EVs) and battery storage. With control over lithium mining, processing, and manufacturing, China now dominates nearly every part of this fast-growing sector.

The move lets Beijing control what technical know-how leaves China. It also strengthens its grip on the clean energy supply chain. This control affects global lithium prices, investment, and clean energy goals across Europe, the U.S., and Asia.

China’s Expanding Role in Lithium Production

Lithium demand has soared as countries push for cleaner transport and renewable energy. The International Energy Agency (IEA) says global lithium demand jumped almost 30% in 2024. This rise came mainly from EV production and big battery storage needs.

lithium demand outlook and mining requirements
Source: IEA

China produces about 18% of the world’s mined lithium, but its real strength lies in refining. Chinese companies hold about 65% of the world’s lithium chemical processing. They also account for over 75% of global battery cell production. These numbers show that even if lithium ore is mined in Chile, Argentina, or Australia, most of it ends up in Chinese refineries, which process it into battery-grade material.

china lithium and other battery minerals production
Source: EIA

China also leads in midstream and downstream battery manufacturing. In 2024, China made more than 1,200 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of lithium-ion batteries. That’s around three-quarters of the world’s total, as reported by BloombergNEF.

Major producers like CATL and BYD supplied both domestic and foreign automakers, including Tesla, BMW, and Toyota.

The country’s major players, such as Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium, have spent years investing in foreign mines. They invest in lithium projects in South America, Africa, and Australia. This helps them secure long-term access to raw materials. This strategy ensures China’s industry gets the feedstock it needs, supports local gigafactories, and boosts global exports.

How Beijing’s Moves Sway Global Lithium Markets

Lithium prices have been on a roller coaster. After record highs in 2022, prices dropped sharply in 2023 and early 2024 due to oversupply. But by mid-2025, prices in China began to rebound. Lithium carbonate traded between CNY 59,000 and 69,000 per metric ton (roughly US$8,500–9,000).

lithium price

Industry analysts say Chinese producers used this price flexibility to outcompete foreign suppliers. When prices drop, many non-Chinese mining firms, especially in Australia and Africa, struggle to stay profitable.

Some market experts think China oversupplied the market on purpose. They believe this was to keep global influence and slow down rival producers.

Despite recent rebounds, volatility remains high. The IEA warns that lithium demand may double by 2030. It could reach over 1.3 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) each year. Without new mines and processing capacity, global shortages might return. This could lead to price spikes that impact battery and EV production worldwide.

Technology and Export Controls

China’s advantage goes beyond production scale. It now leads in processing technology, equipment, and battery chemistry. Beijing is now limiting exports of lithium-processing machines and technology. This move aims to protect local industries and manage intellectual property.

In 2025, several Chinese equipment suppliers limited shipments abroad. This makes it harder for competitors in the U.S. and Europe to build their own refining systems. These export limits are part of a broader strategy to keep the high-value stages of the supply chain inside China.

China in global lithium supply chain 2025

Meanwhile, the U.S. IRA provides up to $369 billion for climate and energy. It includes strong incentives for local battery and mineral production. Europe’s Critical Raw Materials Act aims for 40% of critical minerals used in the EU to come from local or allied sources by 2030. But industry analysts say it could take up to a decade for these efforts to significantly reduce dependence on China.

The Global Response: Diversifying Supply Chains

Governments and companies are now racing to reduce dependence on China. The United States, Canada, and Australia are expanding domestic mining and refining. Chile and Argentina, along with other South American nations, are building local industries. They aim to process lithium instead of just exporting raw materials.

The IEA warns that global lithium supply must increase sevenfold by 2035 to meet climate goals. That means bringing new mines and refineries online faster while maintaining environmental standards.

In 2024, the World Bank estimated that over €680 billion (US$730 billion) was invested in renewable power and storage. However, only a small part funded the raw material supply. If supply growth lags, battery shortages could slow EV production by the late 2020s.

However, challenges persist. Lithium extraction can strain water resources and ecosystems. Building new facilities also requires stable regulation and financing, which can take years to secure.

Surge Battery Metals: Strengthening North American Supply

In North America, one of the emerging players helping to diversify lithium supply is Surge Battery Metals (CSE: NILI). The company is developing the Nevada North Lithium Project. This project is in one of the U.S.’s most promising lithium-rich areas.

Surge aims to produce battery-grade lithium for the growing North American EV market. Its exploration results have shown strong potential for large-scale, high-grade lithium clay deposits. Projects like Surge’s align with U.S. efforts to build a secure domestic supply chain and reduce reliance on imports from China.

Surge helps ensure supply security and meet environmental goals by creating cleaner extraction and processing methods. Its work supports the U.S. Department of Energy’s plan to create a domestic battery materials supply chain. It seeks to meet 90% of the country’s lithium demand by 2035.

What’s Ahead: Competition, Cooperation, and Climate Goals

The global lithium race is about more than profits. It shapes the pace of the clean energy transition. China’s dominance gives it both economic power and geopolitical influence. Western economies are investing a lot to find new supplies and to lower strategic risks.

The market outlook suggests demand will remain strong throughout the decade. Analysts expect lithium prices to stabilize as new supply enters the market, but competition will remain intense.

For the world to meet its climate goals, cooperation will be as important as competition. Shared technology, recycling, and sustainability standards could help reduce emissions and stabilize supply chains.

Surge Battery Metals and other new miners are working to localize production. They aim to boost transparency and ensure lithium supply helps the clean energy transition, not hinders it.

China now controls the heart of the global lithium industry, from mining and refining to battery exports. This dominance brings both opportunity and risk. The rest of the world is responding, but catching up will take time, investment, and innovation.

The post China’s Grip on Lithium Tightens as Global Supply Struggles to Keep Up appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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How to improve Scope 3 data accuracy for CSRD

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For most businesses, the emissions that matter most sit outside their own walls. Scope 3 emissions, everything generated across your value chain, from the suppliers who make your inputs to the customers who use your products, typically make up the majority of a company’s total carbon footprint. Under the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD), those value-chain emissions now have to be measured and disclosed with a rigour that spend-based estimates alone struggle to satisfy. This guide sets out how to improve Scope 3 data accuracy for CSRD: the calculation methods open to you, how to move from estimates to verified supplier data, and how to govern that data so it holds up to audit.

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How community stewardship makes carbon credits durable

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A carbon credit is a commitment that extends well into the future. The tonne of CO₂ compensated for today from a nature-based carbon project must remain out of the atmosphere for good, which means the forest behind the credit has to remain standing long after the transaction is complete. For any buyer, this raises a defining question: What ensures that the forest endures?

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Why Conventional Carbon Offsets Are Losing Boardroom Credibility

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What replaced the cheap REDD credit on the boardroom slide deck, and why procurement is leading the rewrite.

Three years ago, a corporate slide showing a portfolio of cheap REDD+ credits could carry a board meeting. The number was big, the price was low, and the press release wrote itself. Today, that same slide gets sent back with questions. The questions are uncomfortable, the answers are unclear, and your general counsel is suddenly in the room.

Conventional carbon offsets are not dead. The voluntary carbon market retired 202 million tonnes in 2025, and the Morgan Stanley Institute for Sustainable Investing survey published in January 2026 confirmed that interest from corporate buyers remains substantial. What changed is the credibility threshold. The integrity floor has risen, the disclosure scrutiny has tightened, and the buyer profile has shifted. This article tracks what changed, what sophisticated buyers now ask before signing, and what serious corporates are putting on the board slide instead.

What boards used to buy, and why it stopped working

The 2020 to 2022 model was simple: buy a large tranche of avoidance credits at low single-digit prices, retire them against the company footprint, announce the carbon-neutral claim, and move on. Most of those credits came from REDD+ projects, renewable energy installations in countries where the renewable energy was already economic, or methane projects with thin documentation.

Several things broke that model. Academic research published in 2023, including a widely cited Science paper, found that the majority of REDD+ credits issued under the most common methodologies did not represent additional reductions when tested against rigorous counterfactuals. The Voluntary Carbon Markets Integrity Initiative published its Claims Code of Practice, which sets requirements for what companies can credibly claim from credit use. The European Union finalised its Green Claims Directive, restricting how companies can describe products as climate-neutral. France’s Décret 2022-539 already restricts carbon neutrality advertising. California’s AB 1305 imposes disclosure requirements on any company making net-zero or carbon-neutral claims while doing business in the state.

The collective effect: the cheap credit no longer buys the announcement, and the announcement now carries litigation risk.

The integrity reset: ICVCM, VCMI, and what changed

The Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market published the Core Carbon Principles in 2023 and began assessing methodologies against them in 2024. The first methodologies received the CCP label later that year. The point of the label is to give corporate buyers a defensible quality screen they can cite in disclosure.

The Voluntary Carbon Markets Integrity Initiative complements this on the demand side. Its Claims Code of Practice defines what a buyer can say (Silver, Gold, or Platinum claims, with associated requirements) based on the quality of credits used and the underlying decarbonisation strategy. Together, CCP and VCMI build a quality stack: CCP on the supply, VCMI on the claim, with the science-based target sitting underneath both.

The reset is not a ban on offsets. It is a ratchet. Credits that meet the new bar continue to clear; credits that do not, do not. The Morgan Stanley survey found that 61% of current buyers like the CCP label concept but that supply of labelled credits remains limited. That supply constraint is now visible in pricing.

What sophisticated buyers ask before they sign

The questions on the procurement scorecard have changed. A 2022 buyer might have asked about price, vintage, and project type. A 2026 buyer asks five different questions before any of those.

  • What does the counterfactual look like, and who validated it.
  • What is the permanence regime, and what is the buffer pool exposure.
  • What is the leakage risk, and how is it mitigated.
  • What rating has the project received from the independent ratings agencies (Sylvera, BeZero, Calyx Global), and what was the rationale.
  • What is the documentation discipline that survives an audit four years from now when the procurement team that signed the contract has moved on.

If the vendor cannot answer those five questions on a first call, the conversation ends. Conversely, if the vendor can answer them with documented specificity, the conversation often expands beyond a single transaction toward a multi-year engagement.

Where this leaves your near-term commitments

You probably have near-term commitments that pre-date the integrity reset. Public targets to be carbon neutral by 2025 or 2030. Product-level claims that ran in last year’s marketing. Disclosed reduction trajectories that assumed continued access to cheap credits.

You have three workable paths. The first is to re-baseline your strategy, replacing the most exposed credits with higher-quality alternatives and adjusting the public language to match what you can defend. The second is to shift the underlying spend from offsetting outside your value chain to investing inside your value chain, where reductions count against Scope 3 directly and the audit trail is cleaner. The third is to keep the strategy and absorb the risk, which is increasingly the most expensive option once you price in litigation, restatement, and reputational exposure.

Most serious buyers are choosing the second path. It moves the carbon spend from a compliance cost to a procurement and resilience investment, and it removes the central failure point of the legacy model: the disconnect between where the emissions occurred and where the reductions sat. Nature-based supply chain investments, structured under the GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard and aligned to the SBTi FLAG Guidance, are the asset class that fits this brief. They generate inventory-grade reductions, they produce audit-grade documentation, and they survive the new claim restrictions because the carbon math sits inside the value chain that the disclosure already covers.

If you are reassessing a carbon strategy under the new integrity bar, or rebuilding a board narrative that has to survive a more skeptical audience, the carbon and sustainability experts at Carbon Credit Capital can help. The Dual-Value Model gives you a defensible alternative to legacy offset purchases, with the documentation and operational integration that survives the procurement scorecard and the audit. Schedule a consultation.

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