China’s new emissions reduction target, announced at a high-level climate summit at the United Nations in New York, has been judged by experts as “timid” and falling short of the effort needed to meet global climate goals, even though it represents an increase in the country’s climate ambition.

The Asian economic powerhouse promised to aim for a 7-10% cut in its greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 compared to “peak” levels, without specifying which year that would be. Experts said that pledge is not enough to align with the Paris Agreement target of limiting global warming to 1.5C. 

In a video message to the summit, China’s President Xi Jinping told world leaders that the “green and low-carbon transition is the trend of our time”, despite “some countries acting against it”.

“China will by 2035 reduce economy-wide net greenhouse gas emissions by 7-10% from peak levels, striving to do better,” the Chinese leader announced at the Climate Summit 2025 convened by the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in New York.

The world’s largest carbon polluter, China is responsible for about a third of global emissions. As countries delivered new climate plans at the summit, China’s new nationally determined contribution (NDC) has been one of the most anticipated and is viewed an indicator of global climate ambition.

Target falls short of Paris Agreement alignment

The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) warned that only emissions cuts of around 30% by 2035 by China would be consistent with the 1.5C limit.

A range, such as the one delivered by Xi at the New York summit, could be interpreted as “the lower bound is effectively the guarantee, while the upper bound represents potential ambition”.

The baseline year for the target – a key measure for how ambitious it is – was not clarified in Xi’s announcement. The country will take as reference the “peak” in its emissions, with some experts saying that could occur as early as last year or this year.

China’s rapid renewable energy rollout has kept the country on track to meet its existing goal of peaking carbon pollution before the end of the decade. It plans to reach net zero by 2060.

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The Chinese president also announced a target to “increase the share of non-fossil fuels in total energy consumption to over 30%”, and “expand the installed capacity of wind and solar power to over six times the 2020 levels, striving to bring the total to 3,600 GW”.

He also pledged to “scale up the total forest stock volume to over 24 billion cubic metres”, make EVs the “mainstream in the sale of new vehicles”, and expand its emissions trading market to cover “major emitting sectors”.

Since 2020, China has also pledged to reduce CO2 emissions per unit of GDP – a measure known as carbon intensity – by more than 65% below 2005 levels by 2030. This target was not mentioned in Xi’s announcement.

Dave Jones, chief analyst with energy think-tank Ember, said the new NDC underscored the progress made by China over the last few years with its energy transition, showing that “a sustained decline in its fossil fuel use is now well within sight” and China would continue to install solar and wind “at mega-scale”.

Emissions target “too timid”

Other observers said China’s new mitigation target for 2035 fell short of what they country can deliver, arguing it is not representative of the country’s climate actions on the ground.

Yao Zhe, Beijing-based global policy advisor for Greenpeace East Asia, said that “even for those with tempered expectations, what’s presented today still falls short. This 2035 target offers little assurance to keep our planet safe.”

Still, Zhe added that China is expected to exceed its target on paper, in line with its tradition for under-promising and over-delivering. “Ultimately, actions do speak louder than words. But strong and consistent policy signals are an irreplaceable catalyst,” she said.

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Juan Manuel Santos, former president of Colombia and chair of The Elders group, said China’s new target “is too timid given the country’s extraordinary record on clean energy – both at home and through its green partnerships with emerging economies”.

In the past, the country delivered on its target to install 1,200 gigawatts (GW) of wind and solar energy ahead of the government’s schedule. 

Bernice Lee, distinguished fellow at Chatham House, said the new target “simply isn’t representative of the pace of the energy transition in the country” adding that other countries will “read the writing on the wall” and recognise China’s climate commitment to clean energy outside of its NDC.

China’s climate leadership “critical”

Experts have said that strong leadership from China and the European Union is critical ahead of the COP30 climate summit, as the Trump administration has pulled back from the US’s international climate commitments.

In a major milestone this year, China’s emissions fell for the first time in the 12 months to May, despite continued growth in energy demand. Previous declines in emissions had only taken place during the COVID-19 pandemic, when strong social restrictions slowed down economic growth.

The country’s much-criticised coal sector has kept growing to power its energy-hungry industry. Still, as transport, buildings and industry electrify fast, China’s energy-related fossil fuel consumption is expected to fall soon, according to Ember.

Given the country’s massive energy footprint, this would create the conditions for a global decline in fossil fuel demand, it argues.

The post China unveils underwhelming emissions-cutting target for 2035 appeared first on Climate Home News.

China unveils underwhelming emissions-cutting target for 2035