Published

2 years ago

August 8, 2024

Alice Rush

Welcome to Carbon Brief’s China Briefing.

China Briefing handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight. Subscribe for free here.

Key developments

Hottest month in history

RECORD HEAT: July 2024 was China’s “hottest month in observed modern history” (since records began in 1961), in a record coinciding with the world experiencing its hottest day on 22 July, Reuters reported. Every province across the country saw average temperatures for July rise year-on-year, with Guizhou, Yunnan, Hunan, Jiangxi and Zhejiang ranking highest, it said, adding that the record were unusual because “the El Nino climate pattern…ended in April, but temperatures have not abated”. State broadcaster CCTV said on 4 August that several provinces had experienced temperatures between 40-43.9C, warning residents to “reduce” time spent outdoors. Reuters also said that rising temperatures “sharply pushed up demand for power to cool homes and offices” and “stoked fears of damage to rice crops”, adding that the city of Hangzhou “banned all non-essential outdoor lighting and light shows this week to conserve energy”.

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RECORD FLOODS: According to the state-supporting Global Times, China has “experienced 25 numbered flood events” this year, the highest number since records began in 1998. The newspaper said that, according to Ma Jun, director of the Beijing-based Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs, “[due to] global climate change, extreme weather events are increasing, which increases the difficulty of forecasting [rainfall and floods]”. Another CCTV report cited the China Meteorological Administration saying that the country experienced two typhoons and recorded “13.3% higher than average” rainfall in July. Typhoon Gaemi killed 30 people and left 35 missing in Zixing, Hunan province, Reuters said. State news agency Xinhua stated that the typhoon also caused “damage” in the coastal provinces of Fujian and Liaoning, affecting 766,900 and 60,000 residents, respectively. Xinhua reported the Chinese government called for “proactive” flood control and for “disaster relief funds [to] be allocated promptly”. The state-sponsored outlet China News said the Ministry of Water Resources issued 649m yuan ($90m) to support “flood relief” in 14 affected provinces.

New renewable energy targets and ‘green electricity’ trading policy

NEW RENEWABLE TARGETS: Regulators published provincial targets for 2024-25 under China’s renewable portfolio standards (RPS) on 2 August, reported China Power. The targets, for the renewable share of electricity supply, increased by more than 3 percentage points year-on-year in most provinces, according to analysis published by financial outlet Yicai, “compared with a 1 to 2 points jump in previous years”.

NEW ALUMINIUM TARGETS: In order to help meet the targets, regulators also issued renewable-energy goals for the aluminium industry in each province for the first time, China Power said. Reuters reported that Shandong, China’s biggest aluminium producer, is “set a target for renewables to account for 21% of the energy used to produce the metal”. The targets in Inner Mongolia and Yunnan province, which are also major aluminium producers, are set at 29% and 70%, respectively, added the newswire. China Power said that the “green electricity consumption” in the aluminium industry will be “calculated based on ‘green electricity certificates’ (GECs)” – a scheme that allows electricity generated by non-fossil fuels to be traded between producers and buyers. (See Carbon Brief’s China Briefing of 24 August 2023 for background on China’s GECs.)

‘GREEN ELECTRICITY’ TRADING: While announcing this year’s targets, the government also issued new rules for trading “green electricity” for the “medium to long term”, BJX News reported. The document says the trade via GECs should not be subject to price limits or set prices and, instead, work as a market-based system, unless “clearly stipulated by the state”. Trading should take place “mainly within provinces” with strong wind and solar resources, and can “gradually expand to other qualified renewable energy sources” when “conditions are ripe”, added the outlet.

CARBON MARKET INCLUSION: Despite an announcement in 2023 that GECs may be included in the carbon market in the future, China Power Enterprise Management magazine said that, currently, the GECs “have almost no impact on the national carbon market”, because GECs “is limited to low indirect emissions from electricity”. If energy-intensive industries are included in the carbon market, GECs can cover around 19% of carbon emissions in China, added the magazine.

No mention of reform in new power system plan

UPGRADING THE SYSTEM: BJX News reported that China has issued a plan to upgrade its power system to “promote the construction of a new type of power system” between now and 2027. The outlet said the new system should be “safe, stable, cost-effective, flexible” and support the addition of more “clean and low-carbon” resources. A “key effect” of the plan, according to the National Energy Administration, is to improve the transmission of renewable energy from the remote desert bases to cities “at a large scale”, added the outlet.

‘NEW-GENERATION’ OF COAL: Another BJX News article stated that the plan also proposes to “carry out experimental demonstrations of new-generation coal power” and explore a development path for coal “that is compatible with the development of a ‘new type’ power system”. Economic news outlet Jiemian also noted that the call to guarantee stable power supply “ranked at the top of the nine special actions outlined by the action plan”. (A new report by Ember, covered by Carbon Brief, stated that increasing investments in low-carbon energy by state-owned enterprises is pushing coal into “decline”.)

REFORM OMITTED: Reuters quoted Xuewan Chen, energy transition analyst at LSEG, saying the plan “focuses on building a more flexible power grid to better manage the [energy] transition”, but that the document did not mention “power market reform and the creation of a competitive power market to more effectively allocate resources”.

Solar industry woes continue

‘UPHEAVAL’: China’s domestic solar industry is in “upheaval” with wholesale prices falling by another 25% so far this year, after falling by almost half in 2023, the New York Times reported. It quoted Frank Haugwitz, a solar industry consultant, saying efforts by the Chinese government to rein in the industry’s expansion have been “too small to reduce China’s overcapacity”. Bloomberg said that an increasing number of Chinese solar manufacturers “are falling into restructuring or bankruptcy”, adding that “while bigger players like Longi have so far survived billions of yuan in losses by imposing production halts and layoffs, smaller companies have fewer ways to plug financial gaps”.

‘SEVERE OVERCAPACITY’: In a meeting of China’s Politburo at the end of July, state-run newspaper China Daily said, president Xi Jinping called for “strengthening industry self-regulation and preventing ‘involutional’ vicious competition”, adding that China should “strengthen the market mechanisms” to help with “inefficient production capacity”. The outlet did not report that any particular sectors were named during the meeting. Several days earlier, Bloomberg stated that Wang Bohua, head of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, had called for “struggling solar manufacturers [to be pushed] to exit the market as soon as possible to reduce severe overcapacity”.

SOLAR SURGE: Elsewhere, BJX News reported that China added 134 gigawatts (GW) of new renewable capacity in the first six months of 2024, according to the National Energy Administration (NEA) – an increase of 24% year-on-year. It added that solar made up 102GW of the total. (Total US solar capacity stood at 139GW at the end of 2023.)

51.1%

The share of sales of “new energy vehicles” (NEVs) – which includes both battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids – in China in July, according to the China Passenger Car Association. The trade body added that NEV performance beat manufacturers’ expectations, which it attributed to a trade-in policy encouraging consumers to replace old cars.

Spotlight

China moves towards ‘dual-control of carbon’ with new work plan

China has released a plan that will set an absolute limit on its carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for the first time, shifting to “dual control” of total CO2 emissions and carbon intensity instead of total energy use and energy intensity.

The document, outlining a timeline for China to construct this new system for carbon “dual-control”, will be a key element of the country’s strategy to meet its climate goals.

In this issue, Carbon Brief assesses the document’s implications for China’s future emissions targets.

Switching to dual-control of carbon

In 2016, Beijing established a set of targets for energy intensity – its energy consumption per unit of GDP – and total energy consumption, in a system known as the “dual-control of energy”.

Since 2021, the central government has called for replacing the “dual-control of energy” with “dual-control of carbon”, which would be comprised of targets for both carbon intensity and total carbon emissions. China has only ever set targets for CO2 intensity, not for total CO2 emissions.

This shift began taking shape on 2 August when the State Council, China’s top administrative body, released a “work plan” outlining the first concrete design of the new system.

The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s primary economic planning body, told reporters at a press conference that the plan “establishes a clear direction” for developing renewable energy and “focusing on control of fossil-fuel energy consumption”.

Anticipating a 2030 peak?

According to the new plan, China aims to establish a “completed” statistics and accounting system for CO2 emissions by 2025. Components of this system include carbon footprint standards, a national database of greenhouse gas emission factors and other measurement and monitoring capabilities.

Between 2026 and 2030 – the period of the 15th five-year plan – China will replace current targets under “dual-control” of energy with a policy on “dual-control” of carbon that places “[carbon] intensity control as the main focus and control of the total amount [of carbon] as a supplement”.

This means that, under the new system, carbon intensity targets will remain binding and the cap on China’s total CO2 emissions will initially be a non-binding “supplement”.

In subsequent five-year plan periods, China will set a binding cap for total CO2 emissions, which will become the “key target” once China’s carbon peak is reached, with carbon intensity as a secondary target.

“The timeline here indicates policymakers still only aim to peak emissions by 2030, despite the clear likelihood that emissions will…peak much sooner,” Yao Zhe, global policy analyst for Greenpeace East Asia, said in a statement, adding that this shows China is still “underpromising”.

Li Shuo, director of the Asia Society Policy Institute’s China climate hub, told Carbon Brief that the ambiguity is intentional to allow policymakers “to further clarify when and how they want to make that switch [to an absolute cap]” after a peak is confirmed.

He added that policymakers’ “intrinsic inability” to predict the exact peaking timeline is the reason for setting two targets under the [new] dual-control system, as, once it happens, China “can just switch to the other [metric]”.

‘Rolling up its sleeves’

The shift from focusing on “dual-control of energy” to “dual-control of carbon” is a “change from process control to results-oriented management that will compel industries to adopt green technologies”, according to Qi Qin, China analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.

China is falling short of its existing carbon intensity target, she said, making it important to “accelerate” its energy transition and clean energy buildout – priorities that are emphasised in the work plan.

Local governments are tasked with developing more specific targets, taking “local conditions” into account. Actions are also outlined for central government departments, industry associations and enterprises.

The central government subsequently released a related action plan to issue 70 national standards in areas including carbon footprints, CO2 emissions reduction, energy efficiency and carbon capture, utilisation and storage.

When formulating targets, the document urges policymakers to consider “economic development, energy security [and] normal production”, pointing to existing anxieties around maintaining stable access to power, which the country currently mostly relies on fossil fuels to provide.

Li told Carbon Brief:

“This is the Chinese government rolling up its sleeves and trying to make quite an important switch…Folks have been advocating for China to really reduce its emissions in absolute terms for almost two decades. This is the mechanics of how this will happen – them actually making this switch and trying to make sure this is done in the right way by, for example, disaggregating [targets] to the local level, getting the private sector involved and trying to build up the carbon accounting system from the bottom up.”

Implications for China’s NDC targets

As well as meeting domestic policy needs, the NDRC said, a dual-carbon control system is “conducive” to setting the country’s new international climate pledge (nationally determined contribution, NDC), and supports the image of China as “a responsible large country that is actively responding to global climate change”.

Yao said Greenpeace expects that China’s next NDC will include a carbon emission reduction goal for 2035.

Li told Carbon Brief that China’s international pledge will then drive domestic targets, due to “how the timeline works”. He added: “The NDC [target] for 2035 has to be communicated in 2025, [looking] 10 years into the future…The job of the five-year plans for the next two five-year periods [will then be] to align with that international pledge.”

Watch, read, listen

DRIVING FORCE: A report released today by Ember found that global wind capacity will double by 2030, with the majority of additions being installed in China.

SUPPORTING INNOVATION: Huang Kunming, governor of Guangdong province, wrote in the People’s Daily about the need to boost innovation to meet China’s development needs, including to “accelerate the green transformation of development”.

SUPPLY CHAINS: A Boston University Global Development Policy Center study found commercial ties between China and Latin American and Caribbean countries have broadened from solely minerals and agriculture to include the automotive, energy and transport sectors.

TACKLING METHANE: The California-China Climate Institute hosted a webinar on the state of agricultural methane emissions and bilateral cooperation between the US and China, building on a recently released report.

Captured

China’s CO2 falls 1% in Q2 2024 in first quarterly drop since Covid-19

CO2 emissions in China fell by 1% in the second quarter of 2024, the first quarterly fall since the country re-opened from “zero-Covid” lockdowns, new analysis for Carbon Brief found. The reduction was driven by the surge in clean energy additions, which is pushing fossil fuel power into reverse – although the shift is being somewhat diluted by rapid energy demand growth in the coal-to-chemicals sector.

New science

The dominant warming season shifted from winter to spring in the arid region of Northwest China
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

A new paper investigated the “seasonal asymmetry” in warming in the arid region of northwest China – which has experienced “significantly higher” warming than the global average, according to the paper. The authors used station and reanalysis data to investigate seasonal temperature changes in the region. They found that “the dominant season of temperature increase shifted from winter to spring”. The paper added that the main reason for warming in spring was a decrease in cloud cover, while a strengthening Siberian High was mainly responsible for driving winter cooling.

Carbon emissions from urban takeaway delivery in China
npj Urban Sustainability

Transport-related emissions from food deliveries in Chinese cities “surged” from 0.31m tonnes of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e) in 2014 to 2.74MtCO2e in 2021, a new study found. The authors analysed the rise in emissions from food deliveries and explored possible policies to mitigate these emissions in the future. They estimated that by 2035, transport-related emissions from food deliveries will rise to 5.94MtCO2e. However, if motorcycles were replaced with electric bikes and traffic routes were optimised, “it is possible to mitigate such GHG emissions by 4.39-10.97MtCO2e between 2023 and 2035,” they said.

China Briefing is compiled by Wanyuan Song and Anika Patel. It is edited by Wanyuan Song and Dr Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org

The post China Briefing 8 August: Record extreme weather; First quarterly CO2 fall since Covid; ‘Dual control’ of carbon emissions appeared first on Carbon Brief.

China Briefing 8 August: Record extreme weather; First quarterly CO2 fall since Covid; ‘Dual control’ of carbon emissions

Climate Change

Whale Entanglements in Fishing Gear Surge Off U.S. West Coast During Marine Heatwaves

Published

7 hours ago

February 25, 2026

Alice Rush

New research finds that rising ocean temperatures are shrinking cool-water feeding grounds, pushing humpbacks into gear-heavy waters near shore. Scientists say ocean forecasting tool could help fisheries reduce the risk.

By Teresa Tomassoni

Each spring, humpback whales start to feed off the coast of California and Oregon on dense schools of anchovies, sardines and krill—prey sustained by cool, nutrient-rich water that seasonal winds draw up from the deep ocean.

Whale Entanglements in Fishing Gear Surge Off U.S. West Coast During Marine Heatwaves

Climate Change

Grasslands and Wetlands Are Being Gobbled Up By Agriculture, Mostly Livestock

Published

7 hours ago

February 25, 2026

Alice Rush

A new study takes a first-of-its kind look at how farming converts non-forested areas and major carbon sinks into cropland and pasture.

By Georgina Gustin

Agriculture is widely known to be the biggest driver of forest destruction globally, especially in sprawling, high-profile ecosystems like the Amazon rainforest.

Grasslands and Wetlands Are Being Gobbled Up By Agriculture, Mostly Livestock

Climate Change

Cropped 25 February 2026: Food inflation strikes | El Niño looms | Biodiversity talks stagnate

Published

18 hours ago

February 25, 2026

Alice Rush

We handpick and explain the most important stories at the intersection of climate, land, food and nature over the past fortnight.

This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s fortnightly Cropped email newsletter.
Subscribe for free here.

Key developments

Food inflation on the rise

DELUGE STRIKES FOOD: Extreme rainfall and flooding across the Mediterranean and north Africa has “battered the winter growing regions that feed Europe…threatening food price rises”, reported the Financial Times. Western France has “endured more than 36 days of continuous rain”, while farmers’ associations in Spain’s Andalusia estimate that “20% of all production has been lost”, it added. Policy expert David Barmes told the paper that the “latest storms were part of a wider pattern of climate shocks feeding into food price inflation”.

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NO BEEF: The UK’s beef farmers, meanwhile, “face a double blow” from climate change as “relentless rain forces them to keep cows indoors”, while last summer’s drought hit hay supplies, said another Financial Times article. At the same time, indoor growers in south England described a 60% increase in electricity standing charges as a “ticking timebomb” that could “force them to raise their prices or stop production, which will further fuel food price inflation”, wrote the Guardian.

‘TINDERBOX’ AND TARIFFS: A study, covered by the Guardian, warned that major extreme weather and other “shocks” could “spark social unrest and even food riots in the UK”. Experts cited “chronic” vulnerabilities, including climate change, low incomes, poor farming policy and “fragile” supply chains that have made the UK’s food system a “tinderbox”. A New York Times explainer noted that while trade could once guard against food supply shocks, barriers such as tariffs and export controls – which are being “increasingly” used by politicians – “can shut off that safety valve”.

El Niño looms

NEW ENSO INDEX: Researchers have developed a new index for calculating El Niño, the large-scale climate pattern that influences global weather and causes “billions in damages by bringing floods to some regions and drought to others”, reported CNN. It added that climate change is making it more difficult for scientists to observe El Niño patterns by warming up the entire ocean. The outlet said that with the new metric, “scientists can now see it earlier and our long-range weather forecasts will be improved for it.”

WARMING WARNING: Meanwhile, the US Climate Prediction Center announced that there is a 60% chance of the current La Niña conditions shifting towards a neutral state over the next few months, with an El Niño likely to follow in late spring, according to Reuters. The Vibes, a Malaysian news outlet, quoted a climate scientist saying: “If the El Niño does materialise, it could possibly push 2026 or 2027 as the warmest year on record, replacing 2024.”

CROP IMPACTS: Reuters noted that neutral conditions lead to “more stable weather and potentially better crop yields”. However, the newswire added, an El Niño state would mean “worsening drought conditions and issues for the next growing season” to Australia. El Niño also “typically brings a poor south-west monsoon to India, including droughts”, reported the Hindu’s Business Line. A 2024 guest post for Carbon Brief explained that El Niño is linked to crop failure in south-eastern Africa and south-east Asia.

News and views

DAM-AG-ES: Several South Korean farmers filed a lawsuit against the country’s state-owned utility company, “seek[ing] financial compensation for climate-related agricultural damages”, reported United Press International. Meanwhile, a national climate change assessment for the Philippines found that the country “lost up to $219bn in agricultural damages from typhoons, floods and droughts” over 2000-10, according to Eco-Business.
SCORCHED GRASS: South Africa’s Western Cape province is experiencing “one of the worst droughts in living memory”, which is “scorching grass and killing livestock”, said Reuters. The newswire wrote: “In 2015, a drought almost dried up the taps in the city; farmers say this one has been even more brutal than a decade ago.”
NOUVELLE VEG: New guidelines published under France’s national food, nutrition and climate strategy “urged” citizens to “limit” their meat consumption, reported Euronews. The delayed strategy comes a month after the US government “upended decades of recommendations by touting consumption of red meat and full-fat dairy”, it noted.
COURTING DISASTER: India’s top green court accepted the findings of a committee that “found no flaws” in greenlighting the Great Nicobar project that “will lead to the felling of a million trees” and translocating corals, reported Mongabay. The court found “no good ground to interfere”, despite “threats to a globally unique biodiversity hotspot” and Indigenous tribes at risk of displacement by the project, wrote Frontline.
FISH FALLING: A new study found that fish biomass is “falling by 7.2% from as little as 0.1C of warming per decade”, noted the Guardian. While experts also pointed to the role of overfishing in marine life loss, marine ecologist and study lead author Dr Shahar Chaikin told the outlet: “Our research proves exactly what that biological cost [of warming] looks like underwater.”
TOO HOT FOR COFFEE: According to new analysis by Climate Central, countries where coffee beans are grown “are becoming too hot to cultivate them”, reported the Guardian. The world’s top five coffee-growing countries faced “57 additional days of coffee-harming heat” annually because of climate change, it added.

Spotlight

Nature talks inch forward

This week, Carbon Brief covers the latest round of negotiations under the UN Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), which occurred in Rome over 16-19 February.

The penultimate set of biodiversity negotiations before October’s Conference of the Parties ended in Rome last week, leaving plenty of unfinished business.

The CBD’s subsidiary body on implementation (SBI) met in the Italian capital for four days to discuss a range of issues, including biodiversity finance and reviewing progress towards the nature targets agreed under the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF).

However, many of the major sticking points – particularly around finance – will have to wait until later this summer, leaving some observers worried about the capacity for delegates to get through a packed agenda at COP17.

The SBI, along with the subsidiary body on scientific, technical and technological advice (SBSTTA) will both meet in Nairobi, Kenya, later this summer for a final round of talks before COP17 kicks off in Yerevan, Armenia, on 19 October.

Money talks

Finance for nature has long been a sticking point at negotiations under the CBD.

Discussions on a new fund for biodiversity derailed biodiversity talks in Cali, Colombia, in autumn 2024, requiring resumed talks a few months later.

Despite this, finance was barely on the agenda at the SBI meetings in Rome. Delegates discussed three studies on the relationship between debt sustainability and implementation of nature plans, but the more substantive talks are set to take place at the next SBI meeting in Nairobi.

Several parties “highlighted concerns with the imbalance of work” on finance between these SBI talks and the next ones, reported Earth Negotiations Bulletin (ENB).

Lim Li Ching, senior researcher at Third World Network, noted that tensions around finance permeated every aspect of the talks. She told Carbon Brief:

“If you’re talking about the gender plan of action – if there’s little or no financial resources provided to actually put it into practice and implement it, then it’s [just] paper, right? Same with the reporting requirements and obligations.”

Monitoring and reporting

Closely linked to the issue of finance is the obligations of parties to report on their progress towards the goals and targets of the GBF.

Parties do so through the submission of national reports.

Several parties at the talks pointed to a lack of timely funding for driving delays in their reporting, according to ENB.

A note released by the CBD Secretariat in December said that no parties had submitted their national reports yet; by the time of the SBI meetings, only the EU had. It further noted that just 58 parties had submitted their national biodiversity plans, which were initially meant to be published by COP16, in October 2024.

Linda Krueger, director of biodiversity and infrastructure policy at the environmental not-for-profit Nature Conservancy, told Carbon Brief that despite the sparse submissions, parties are “very focused on the national report preparation”. She added:

“Everybody wants to be able to show that we’re on the path and that there still is a pathway to getting to 2030 that’s positive and largely in the right direction.”

Watch, read, listen

NET LOSS: Nigeria’s marine life is being “threatened” by “ghost gear” – nets and other fishing equipment discarded in the ocean – said Dialogue Earth.

COMEBACK CAUSALITY: A Vox long-read looked at whether Costa Rica’s “payments for ecosystem services” programme helped the country turn a corner on deforestation.

HOMEGROWN GOALS: A Straits Times podcast discussed whether import-dependent Singapore can afford to shelve its goal to produce 30% of its food locally by 2030.

‘RUSTING’ RIVERS: The Financial Times took a closer look at a “strange new force blighting the [Arctic] landscape”: rivers turning rust-orange due to global warming.

New science

Lakes in the Congo Basin’s peatlands are releasing carbon that is thousands of years old | Nature Geoscience
Natural non-forest ecosystems – such as grasslands and marshlands – were converted for agriculture at four times the rate of land with tree cover between 2005 and 2020 | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Around one-quarter of global tree-cover loss over 2001-22 was driven by cropland expansion, pastures and forest plantations for commodity production | Nature Food