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Key developments
China missed 2024 targets
INTENSITY SLIP: China’s carbon intensity – its carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per unit of economic output – only fell by 3.4% in 2024, “below its goal of 3.9%”, Reuters reported. Citing official data, it added that “fossil-fuel energy consumption per unit of economic growth [energy intensity] fell by 3.8% in 2024, beating an annual target of 2.5%”. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s top economic planner, attributed the shortfall to “rapid growth in the energy consumption in industries and the civilian sector as a result of post-Covid economic recovery and frequent extreme weather events”.
EMISSIONS RISE: The data showed China’s “fossil[-fuel related] CO2 emissions increased by 0.7%”, wrote Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), adding that China’s 2025 carbon-intensity target of an 18% cut on 2005 levels will now be “extremely hard to meet”. Yao Zhe, global policy advisor at Greenpeace East Asia, told Carbon Brief that changes to the energy-intensity methodology – which now only covers energy from fossil fuels – “may be a key reason” for its sharp drop in 2024.
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RECORD HEAT: China’s climate in 2024 was “generally poor”, the current affairs newspaper Guangming Daily reported in its coverage of China’s Climate Bulletin 2024, citing a China Meteorological Administration (CMA) official as saying extreme weather events were “more frequent and stronger”, partly due to “climate warming”. Xinhua said in its coverage that 2024 was the warmest year on record and that the number of “heavy rain” events was “four times higher than normal”.
STAYING THE COURSE: Meanwhile, China’s National Energy Administration (NEA) outlined a number of “key tasks” for 2025 in a new notice, Xinhua reported. These included adding 200 gigawatts (GW) of “new energy capacity” and for non-fossil energy to comprise 60% of capacity and 20% of consumption. (China’s solar association estimated that at least 215GW of solar alone will come online this year, Bloomberg said.) The NEA also aims in 2025 to increase total electricity generation to 10,600 terawatt-hours, Xinhua added. The notice stated that coal and gas production will “increase”. Echoing its earlier work conference, the NEA also listed a number of priority thematic tasks – first among these is to “strengthen” energy security, followed by “deepening” China’s energy transition.
Climate veteran returns to government
LI’S RETURN: The Ministry of Environment and Ecology (MEE) brought back former official and “climate diplomacy veteran” Li Gao as a vice-minister, replacing the outgoing Zhao Yingmin, Shanghai-based news outlet the Paper reported. Li, it added, joined MEE when it was formed in 2018 and was responsible for “organising China’s response to climate change”. Economic news outlet Caijing noted that one of the “most important” tasks awaiting Li will be “promoting” China’s voluntary carbon market (CCER), as well as “helping [to] finalise and publish” China’s next climate pledge (nationally determined contribution, NDC).

BLUE-SKY THINKING: MEE has pledged to “effectively eliminate severe air pollution by the end of 2025”, Reuters reported, by “ramp[ing] up efforts in pollution control and emissions reduction”. Part of this effort, it added, will be to “boost the share of new energy vehicles and machinery”. Other plans to reduce air pollution include addressing “clean heating, ultra-low emission transformation [and] volatile organic chemical controls”, the state-run newspaper China Daily said.
POLICY FLURRY: Meanwhile, MEE issued a new policy to improve innovation “in the field of ecological and environmental protection”, energy news outlet International Energy Net reported. China Daily reported MEE “unveiled two new [CCER] methodologies” for coal-mine gas and streetlights. The ministry will also establish mechanisms for “voluntary disclosure” of corporate greenhouse gas emissions by 2027, business news outlet EastMoney said. Elsewhere, China Daily reported on the ongoing “compilation” of China’s ecological code. The Communist party-affiliated People’s Daily said China released new guidelines on “green finance”.
China hosts IPCC meeting
HANGZHOU HUDDLE: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) held a meeting in China for the first time, the science-focused newspaper Science and Technology Daily reported. The outlet quoted CMA director Chen Zhenlin telling delegates gathered in the city of Hangzhou that China, as a “developing country”, is “actively” promoting a “comprehensive” energy transition. Chinese climate envoy Liu Zhenmin also said at the event that China is an “active contributor to IPCC reports and a diligent practitioner of scientific response to climate change”, according to Xinhua.
TIMELINE CONTROVERSY: The IPCC failed for a third time to agree on a timeline for the organisation’s seventh assessment cycle, Carbon Brief coverage of the event explained, although the outlines for several key reports were agreed. Climate Home cited unnamed delegates as saying there was a “disconnect between public statements from Chinese officials and negotiating positions in closed meetings”, which it said included pushing back against including the IPCC reports in the next “global stocktake”.
CLIMATE LEADER?: In response to a question about the US’ absence from the meeting, China’s foreign ministry said China will “fulfil its climate commitments and make active contributions” to climate action, the Paper reported. Elsewhere, COP30 president-designate Andre Aranha Correa do Lago told Reuters that “others may look to [China] for additional leadership” on climate change. These comments were not quoted by Xinhua, which only reported him saying: “We have to work even harder with China, because China has provided some excellent solutions to combat climate change.”
Trade frictions hit steel
INVESTMENT RESTRICTIONS: The US issued a memo on curbing Chinese investment into “tech, energy and other strategic American sectors”, Bloomberg reported. Separately, the US announced plans to impose an “additional 10% levy on goods from China”, BBC News said. Industry newspaper China Energy Net quoted the state-run trade association China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT) saying the investment curbs will “disturb the security and stability of global supply chains”. Chinese president Xi Jinping told policymakers they must “calmly respond to challenges” Bloomberg said. However, the state-supporting Global Times said China may take “retaliatory measures” to the tariffs.
STEEL YOURSELVES: Vietnam, South Korea, India and the EU have revealed new “measures or plans” to curb their Chinese steel imports, Reuters reported, following earlier US tariffs. The “flurry of protectionism will pile pressure on Beijing” to scale back steel production, Bloomberg said. New CREA analysis covered separately by Bloomberg found that China would need to cut coal-based steel production capacity by 15% this year for mills “to meet their 2025 climate goals”.
BATTERY DIPLOMACY: China’s commerce ministry “hopes” for more “green industry cooperation with Europe”, including on electric vehicles (EVs), China Daily reported. Spain has urged the EU to “forge China policy without the US”, according to the Financial Times, which added that it recently received “two Chinese investments in lithium battery production”. Chinese firm CATL will work with Volkswagen on “EV battery research and development”, the Wall Street Journal said. Elsewhere, China and Nigeria have “signed a €7.6bn (£6.3bn) green hydrogen energy deal”, Nigerian newspaper the Nation reported.
Spotlight
What does the 2025 ‘government work report’ say about climate and energy?
China’s “two sessions” kicked off in Beijing this week, with Premier Li Qiang outlining the country’s main policy priorities in the 2025 “report on the work of the government”, widely known as the “government work report”.
Carbon Brief assesses what the report means for climate and energy policy this year.
Key meeting
The “two sessions” (两会) is the annual gathering of the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC). This year, it runs from 4 to 11 March.
Its centrepiece is the “government work report”, a speech delivered by the premier – the head of China’s State Council, the top body of the country’s central government. This outlines the previous year’s achievements and priorities for the year ahead, including the annual GDP target.
At the meeting, China also releases a report by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the country’s top economic planning body, as well as a central and local government budget report.
Climate and energy policy
China pledged to reduce energy intensity – a measure of energy consumption per unit of GDP – by 3% in 2025, the report said. (Note that this measure now excludes renewables and nuclear, meaning it only applies to fossil fuels.)
This target means China will likely “miss its 14th five-year plan energy-intensity target”, Yao Zhe, global policy advisor at Greenpeace East Asia, told Carbon Brief. Analysis for Carbon Brief found that energy intensity would have needed to fall 6% in both 2024 and 2025.
Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), wrote on Bluesky that the target was “not strong”, adding that this showed the government “is not prioritising controlling CO2 [carbon dioxide] at the moment”.
He said the new methodology for calculating energy intensity would, in theory, allow fossil-fuel demand to grow by 1.9% in 2025, pushing CO2 emissions up by more than 2%.
The 14th five-year plan’s carbon-intensity target, which measures CO2 emissions per unit of GDP, will likely also be missed, according to the Carbon Brief analysis. China does not typically announce annual carbon-intensity targets in the “government work report”.
Priorities in 2025
China’s climate and energy policy in 2025 will likely follow well-established priorities, such as balancing decarbonisation and energy security, based on the report’s language.
The state-run newspaper China Daily highlighted the report’s support of China’s “dual-carbon” goals on its frontpage, saying that China pledged to “diligently work” towards them.
According to the report, China “will develop major projects for climate-change response and engage in and steer global environmental and climate governance”, it added
A number of climate measures were announced, but Li Shuo, director of the China climate hub and senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute, told Carbon Brief that there were “no major surprises”.
Climate and environmental protection remained a key priority. Renewable energy buildouts will continue, with a particular focus on “new energy bases in desert areas” and offshore wind. The report also recognised the need for China to upgrade its electricity grid to cope with vast renewables additions.
But the report also continued to commit to fossil-fuel infrastructure. This year, it said China will launch “low-carbon upgrade trials” for coal-fired power plants, which are seen as necessary for energy security. (Recent analysis found that a “substantial amount” of new coal capacity will soon come online.)
The separate NDRC report also reinforced coal’s position as a “baseline power source”, announcing that China will “continue to enhance coal production”, Reuters reported.
Consumption and ‘involution’
China’s approach to boosting growth includes a number of stimulus measures. The net impact of these measures on China’s emissions is currently unknown, however.
At this year’s meeting, the government stated that domestic consumption was a key “driving force” for economic growth.
In part, China is putting its hopes – and 300bn yuan ($41bn) – into a consumer trade-in programme, which will likely continue to allow drivers to swap combustion-engine cars for electric vehicles (EVs).
The report also pledged to incentivise “eco-friendly consumption”.
While technological innovation remained a major priority, clean-energy technologies were not explicitly mentioned in this context.
Last year’s “government work report” emphasised the need to “consolidate and enhance [China’s] leading position” in industries such as EVs and hydrogen, as well as to “create new ways of storing energy”.
Instead, this year’s report emphasised the need to combat “involution”, stating it will take “comprehensive” steps to address the problem. Involution refers to the overcrowded markets and price wars plaguing sectors, including EVs and solar panels.
Extreme weather
There was continued recognition of the drag of “natural disasters” on China’s economic growth, with the report pledging to “better guard against and respond” to floods, droughts, typhoons and other extreme weather events.
The “government work report” noted that floods “occurred frequently in some parts of China” last year. This was not explicitly linked to climate change.
However, the NDRC report attributed China’s failure to meet its energy intensity goal in 2024 in part to “frequent extreme weather events””.
A recent Carbon Brief analysis found that, of 114 attribution studies for Chinese extreme weather events, 88 had their “severity or likelihood” increased by climate change.
A full analysis of the climate and energy signals from the two sessions will be published by Carbon Brief after the meetings conclude on 11 March.
Watch, read, listen
HUMAN IMPACT: Shanghai-based current affairs outlet Sixth Tone released a two-part report on how extreme weather in Hunan province, and the government response, has affected some of China’s poorest citizens.
STOCKTAKE: The China consultancy Trivium China’s podcast hosted a wide-ranging discussion on Chinese climate policy, including the recent renewables pricing reform.
ENERGY SECURITY: The Wire China carried a wide-ranging interview with Anders Hove, senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, on China’s approach to energy security and other matters.
FINANCE LOOPHOLES: Perspectives Climate Research outlined how Chinese lenders could improve clean-energy lending and “close loopholes for continued fossil fuel support” in a new report supported by Peking University.
2028
The year in which China could peak its carbon emissions, meteorologist Dr Zhang Xiaoye, IPCC Working Group 1 co-chair, said at an event attended online by Carbon Brief.
New science
Impact of climate change on farmers’ crop production in China: a panel Ricardian analysis
Humanities and Social Sciences Communications
A new paper concluded that the impact of climate change on Chinese farmers’ crop production is more pronounced for cash crops than grain crops, as well as affecting large farms more than small farms. The authors found that changes in temperature and rainfall “significantly impact” crop revenue, but that adaptation measures by farmers can partly reduce these effects.
Climate change is leading to an ecological trap in a migratory insect
PNAS
Climate change-induced changes in the East Asian summer monsoon are making seasonal migration a “riskier strategy” for the rice leafroller moth – a “severe pest of rice that annually invades the Lower Yangtze River Valley of China from winter-breeding areas further south” – according to a new study. This is resulting in “declining” pest pressure, the paper said.
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China Briefing is compiled by Wanyuan Song and Anika Patel. It is edited by Wanyuan Song and Dr Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org
The post China Briefing 6 March 2025: ‘Two sessions’ climate news; New vice-minister; Targets missed appeared first on Carbon Brief.
China Briefing 6 March 2025: ‘Two sessions’ climate news; New vice-minister; Targets missed
Climate Change
Palestine: Israel’s bombing has left Gaza vulnerable to climate change
Israel’s bombardment of Gaza during the conflict that broke out in October 2023 has wrecked progress towards adapting the enclave to climate change and left two million Gazans vulnerable to heatwaves, drought and disease, the Palestinian Authority (PA) said in a new climate plan submitted to the United Nations.
Palestine’s third nationally determined contribution (NDC), uploaded to the UN climate body’s website this week, says that while “the aggression on the Gaza Strip did not make the climate worse”, “it removed the housing, water and sanitation systems, health facilities, energy networks, roads and livelihoods through which people absorb a climate they were already struggling with.”
The 91-page document lists the types of infrastructure it says Israel has destroyed and notes how the destruction will worsen the impacts of climate change. It says the bombing of hospitals and rising hunger have make it harder for Gazans to cope with the health impacts of climate-driven heatwaves and waterborne diseases.
The destruction of water tanks, boreholes and desalination plants, meanwhile, have left Gazans struggling with the effects of water shortages and drought, while mass unemployment reduces people’s ability to afford climate-driven price rises. The erasure of most of the Strip’s homes makes it more difficult for people to avoid the sun’s increasing heat, the NDC said.
Many Gazans are now living in the ruins of collapsed buildings or in makeshift shelters and tents that offer little or no protection from high temperatures.
Palestine’s previous goals to cut emissions and adapt to climate change in Gaza, expressed in its last NDC five years ago, were based on a pre-war baseline that “no longer describes anything that exists”, the NDC says. Progress made since 2021 has now been destroyed, it adds.
Green reconstruction of Gaza
Instead of continuing to aim for these adaptation and emissions-reduction goals, the PA is now calling for the green reconstruction of Gaza. It says buildings should be constructed again in an energy-efficient manner with solar panels and served with modern water, waste and transport systems.
While the PA, controlled by the Fatah political party, continues to claim legitimate control of Gaza, the strip was effectively governed by Fatah’s rival Hamas between 2007 and the recent war. Control is now split between Israel and the political wing of Islamist militant group Hamas, after a US-backed ceasefire took effect in October 2025, although a UN-backed committee plans to take over.
The United Nations, European Union and World Bank have jointly estimated that Gaza needs $71.4 billion of investment in the next two years to recover and build back. This process should be Palestinian-led, they said in April.
But US President Donald Trump has said the US should “take over” and “own” Gaza and redevelop it as the “Riviera of the Middle East”. Israel’s right-wing prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that Israel should control the territory with civil administration managed by Palestinians favourable to Israel.
With occupation, targets conditional
In the other part of Palestine, the West Bank, the Palestinian Authority carries out some government functions, but ultimate control rests with Israel, which has occupied the West Bank since 1967.
Because Israel controls planning in most of the West Bank, the NDC argues that the PA cannot pursue all the climate projects it wants. In addition, Israel restricts the movement of PA officials, making data collection difficult, and controls the West Bank’s electricity supply meaning that the PA cannot control whether it comes from dirty or clean sources of energy.
Given this situation, the NDC says that all of Palestine’s new climate targets are conditional but it will aim to reduce emissions 12.8% below a business-as-usual baseline by 2035 and 17.1% by 2040. If the Israeli occupation ends and Palestine regains full sovereignty over its land and resources, it will aim for reductions of 15.1% and 19.1% by 2035 and 2040 respectively under an “independence pathway”.
That could allow, for example, for greater electrification and reducing emissions per unit of growth, the document said.
To achieve the 2035 emissions-reduction target and adapt to the impacts of climate change, the PA says it needs $8.6 billion in total. This funding would be spent on measures like encouraging solar farms and rooftop solar and scaling up solar water heating to cover four-fifths of households. To complement the planned increase in solar power, the authority wants to modernise the electricity grid and install battery storage.
In the transport sector, it aims to promote the uptake of electric vehicles, develop bus rapid transit corridors and scrap old polluting trucks and buses. In Gaza in particular, it wants to deploy 66 electric buses when the conflict ends.

To adapt to climate-driven drought, the NDC includes initiatives to reuse wastewater through treatment plants, build desalination plants in Gaza to remove salt from seawater, and promote irrigation for farmers.
The new climate plan was prepared by Palestine’s Environment Quality Authority, with support from the United Nations Development Programme and the governments of Britain and Spain.
The United Nations recognised Palestine’s statehood in 2012 and it joined the UN’s climate convention and signed the Paris climate agreement – which requires countries to submit more ambitious NDCs every five years – in 2016.
The Israeli foreign ministry did not respond to a request for comment. But in late 2024, then Israeli climate envoy Gideon Behar told Climate Home News that the war and the resulting environmental destruction in Gaza was the fault of Hamas.
The post Palestine: Israel’s bombing has left Gaza vulnerable to climate change appeared first on Climate Home News.
Palestine: Israel’s bombing has left Gaza vulnerable to climate change
Climate Change
Analysis: UK solar power hits record high over summer 2026
Solar power generation in the UK reached a new record over the summer of 2026, as temperatures across the nation soared, according to new analysis by Carbon Brief.
Collectively over June, July and August, solar farms and rooftops generated 8.8 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity in the UK*, as shown in the chart below.

Speaking to Carbon Brief, Chris Hewett, chief executive of trade association Solar Energy UK welcomed the new record, adding that it was driven by “clear skies and continued growth in deployment”.
This surge in generation took place amid the hottest summer on record in the UK, with five heatwaves between May and August.
Summer 2026 was the sixth sunniest on record, with more than 620 hours of sunshine, according to the Met Office. England and Wales – which experienced the most extreme heat – saw their second-sunniest summers on record.
June 2026 was the hottest June in England since records began in 1884, according to Met Office data, while Wales and the UK as a whole experienced their second-warmest June.
It was the driest July for England and Wales since records began in 1836, with some parts of London seeing no rain at all in the month, while Wisley in Surrey had no rain for 62 days.
In England, temperatures peaked at 38.1C at Kew Gardens in London on 13 August.
According to the Met Office, this summer’s record mean temperature was made 130 times more likely by climate change.
Amid these hot and sunny months, solar power generation increased 23% from the same period in 2025. This is double the level of solar generation over the summer of 2021, according to Carbon Brief analysis.
While solar panels can be affected by periods of extreme heat, the longer hours of daylight and higher levels of irradiation over the summer more than offset any efficiency losses.
June, July and August all saw solar set new monthly records for solar generation – July saw the highest solar generation in a calendar month ever, with 3.3TWh meeting 15% of overall electricity demand for the month.
As of the end of August, the total UK solar generation in 2026 stood at 17TWh – 13% higher than the same point in 2025.
The number of solar farms and rooftop installations has grown substantially in recent years, helping to boost generation. Domestic rooftop solar accounts for around 29% of total capacity.
In 2025, the UK’s solar capacity reached 21 gigawatts (GW) by the third quarter of the year, according to UK government figures. This is a jump of 3GW, or 18%, year-on-year, as Carbon Brief reported in January.
(Capacity is the maximum output possible from an electricity generation, whereas generation is what was produced over a certain time period, such as a day, month or year.)
According to the University of Sheffield, the installed solar capacity is now nearly 24GW.
This includes nearly 172,000 solar installations that have been fitted across the UK since the start of 2026, according to recent government figures. In July alone, more than 19,800 rooftop solar panels were installed – the equivalent of one installation every two minutes.
In total, nearly 1.7m households in the UK now have solar panels installed.
Over 26 heatwave days this summer – periods of at least three days when temperatures exceed the Met Office’s county-level heatwave temperature threshold – UK households with rooftop solar panels avoided an estimated £86.7m in electricity costs, according to analysis by Utility Bidder.
Talking about the surge in solar generation this summer, Hewett says:
“[It] not only kept bills down for people with solar and batteries in their homes, but helped keep overall power prices much lower than they would have been if Britain had been relying on more gas generation during the day”.
Despite the record generation, no new half-hourly solar power output record was set in the summer of 2026. This still stands at 15.2 megawatts (MW) on 23 April 2026.
* This article refers to the UK throughout, but strictly relates to the island of Great Britain, made up of England, Scotland and Wales. Northern Ireland is part of the separate, all-Ireland electricity system.
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Q&A: What is ‘long-duration energy storage’ – and why does the UK need it?
Q&A: What does China’s 15th ‘five-year plan’ for renewables mean for climate change?
Analysis: Wind and solar power overtake fossil fuels in Germany for first time ever
The post Analysis: UK solar power hits record high over summer 2026 appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Climate Change
How this summer’s heat and drought impacted crops in Europe – in six charts
Farmers around Europe are dealing with the aftermath of a summer of extreme heat, drought and wildfires that were exacerbated by climate change.
Human-caused climate change is increasing the severity and likelihood of many extreme weather events around the world, which is increasing volatility for food producers.
This summer resulted in, for example, shrunken potatoes in the Netherlands, reduced carrot harvests in France, dried-up rice fields in Italy and scorched olive groves in parts of the Mediterranean region.
Global food prices are currently at their highest level since early 2023 due to “heatwaves and energy price dynamics”, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization.
Other factors such as blocked fertiliser supplies in the Strait of Hormuz and high fuel costs have also played a role in this year’s agricultural outputs.
In the six charts below, Carbon Brief provides a snapshot of the impact this summer’s extremes are considered to have had on crop production and yields across Europe.
1. Most EU countries expect to see declines in cereal production this year
2. Most countries are recording reduced crop yields
3. Around €2bn worth of cereal losses after June heatwave
4. UK yields of wheat, barley and oats are all due to drop in 2026
5. Maize production in France is due to hit a four-decade low
1. Most EU countries expect to see declines in cereal production this year

France, in particular, will see heavy losses in the amount of cereals – such as wheat, barley and oats – it produces this year, according to European Commission data.
French cereal production is expected to drop by almost 8 megatonnes (Mt) in 2026, compared to 2025.
The chart above shows that most European countries, aside from Bulgaria, will also see production losses this year.
Germany is due to see the second-largest losses in production, dropping by almost 4Mt compared to 2025.
Prof Til Feike, a cropping systems expert at the Julius Kühn-Institut, says many areas in Germany and Austria, as with other parts of Europe, have been “hit hard by a long-lasting dry period in combination with record-high heatwaves”.
This has resulted in dry grassland for animals and lower yields of maize, which is a “key fodder crop” for livestock. He tells Carbon Brief:
“In the long run, farming must adapt better to more extreme weather conditions, not only heat and drought, but also prolonged wet periods. So, there is no one-fits-all solution for climate change adaptation.”
2. Most countries are recording reduced crop yields
Heat and a lack of water have “substantially worsened” crop expectations this summer in western and most of central Europe, according to a recent bulletin from the EU Joint Research Centre.
Yields are expected to be “significantly reduced”, with local crop failures “likely” in areas such as France, southern Germany, northern and central Italy, and Hungary, it added.
The chart below shows that yields of cereal grains – which, here, refers to the tonnes of a grain grown per hectare of land – are expected to fall in most EU countries in 2026.

Slovakia, Austria and Hungary are expected to see the largest declines in cereal yields, reducing by more than one tonne per hectare in 2026 compared to 2025.
The recent EU bulletin noted that irrigated crops performed well in Portugal this summer – the country with the largest yield increases. Other crops relying on rainfall showed growing signs of heat stress, it added.
3. Around €2bn worth of cereal losses after June heatwave
The record heatwave that hit many parts of Europe in June contributed to an estimated €2-2.3bn in cumulative grain production losses, as shown in the chart below.

The intense June heat in western Europe would have been “virtually impossible” just 50 years ago, according to a rapid climate attribution study. It was the region’s hottest June on record.
The Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) thinktank analysed June and July 2026 grain forecasts from Coceral, a European grain traders association.
ECIU estimated lost supply by multiplying the change in tonnes of grains between these two months by prices for harvest delivery in 28 European countries.
Major grain producers France, Germany, Hungary and Spain accounted for 86% of the lost revenue, according to the ECIU.
Extreme heat is also expected to have a wider economic impact across the continent. Analysis from Triodos Bank found that this summer’s extreme weather could reduce the EU’s gross domestic product (GDP) by around 1% this year, or around €180bn.
4. UK yields of wheat, barley and oats are all due to drop in 2026
If current trends continue, the average yields for cereals and oilseeds will result in the UK’s worst harvest since detailed records began in 1984, according to ECIU.

Barley yields could fall by 15%, oats by 14% and wheat yields by 6% year-on-year, according to 2026 harvest surveys from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board, a non-departmental public body that provides agricultural data to the UK government.
ECIU said that, even if the situation improves, this year is still expected to be one of the five worst harvests on record. This means that four of the five worst harvests in the UK have occurred in the past decade.
Consumers will likely see higher prices and/or smaller vegetables in supermarkets as a result, Tim O’Malley, chairman of UK company Nationwide Produce, told BBC News in August.
Other crops, such as berries, have grown successfully in the extreme heat. But the Guardian noted fears this could dip later this year “as plants become exhausted from heavy cropping during the heatwave”.
5. Maize production in France is due to hit a four-decade low
France has been acutely affected by this summer’s extreme weather, with more than 7,300 excess deaths during heatwaves and a record number of weather stations recording temperatures of above 40C.
The country is the EU’s largest agricultural producer, but heat, drought and wildfires have affected many crops.
The chart below shows that maize production is set to drop by more than one-third (35%) year-on-year.

This could result in France’s lowest maize production since 1980, according to data from Agreste, the country’s agriculture ministry’s statistics service.
Due to the heat, “record-early” grape harvests have also been recorded in various parts of the nation since mid-July, reported Le Monde. In some cases, this means “smaller, less juicy grapes, which will yield less wine”, explained the newspaper.
6. Declines in EU grains since 2025

Overall in the EU, data and projections indicate declines in the output of cereal grains this year.
Cereal production is set to fall by 9% compared to 2025, according to the European Commission.
Just one year in the past decade – 2024 – recorded lower production levels.
Maize production is set to be particularly affected, with projections indicating a 13% drop, to 52Mt – the lowest level in the EU since 2007.
The post How this summer’s heat and drought impacted crops in Europe – in six charts appeared first on Carbon Brief.
How this summer’s heat and drought impacted crops in Europe – in six charts
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